p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.04622784621040684 | zmGmKVipXAuatZPbsu06 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04622784621040684 | will-boris-johnsons-approval-rating | 104 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 5} | Will Boris Johnson's approval rating be above 50% according to Politico on 1 April 2022? | 1648853940000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.0061244449129525 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644888679383 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if Boris Johnson's approval rating is above 50% on 1 April 2022.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#98099 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.56868612397228, "YES": 22.360903381795648} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1644958689346 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644888679383 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 3 | 1715658977929 | 0 | 1644894313993 | 0.04622784621040684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4289525545535394 | gpSiTuJXEgeK43xaApHC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4289525545535394 | will-the-pool-size-for-this-bet-be | 1151 | {"NO": 604, "YES": 521} | Will the pool size for this bet be evenly divisible by 2? | 1646121540000 | EPAyVDOLBXZ9iv4jWdUgnvpFssA2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 604, "YES": 521} | 0 | 4.658586686682456 | True | play | NO | public | 1644888719784 | David Bloomin | Resolves at the end of February
Feb 14, 5:36pm: Once this market closes, on Feb 28, I will resolve it as "YES" if and only if the total pool size is evenly divisible by 2. Otherwise, I'll resolve as "NO" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 850.1371701087419, "YES": 736.8134377171062} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646124503609 | 100 | DavidBloomin | 1644888719784 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghbg9aFtUtC_sdY96nZYKM_t2BGPjSZXTWFczFoqA=s96-c | 11 | 1715658531385 | 0 | 1 | 0.4289525545535394 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | q7p7LwtFyGSV5LbFbbHL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | will-the-house-of-commons-vote-on-a | 100 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 25} | Will the House of Commons vote on an explicit confidence motion before 1 June 2022? | 1654037940000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 25} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644889269523 | Giovanni | This market will resolve to YES if the House of Commons will vote on either an explicit motions initiated by the Government, or an explicit motions initiated by the Opposition before 1 June 2022. Motions that can be regarded as issues of confidence because of particular circumstances cannot be adequately judged for the purposes of this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 86.60340640384766, "YES": 50.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1644964258191 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644889269523 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 1 | 1715658727012 | 0 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | mOI9o3KsMcHQHwBv6p8s | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-the-1922-committee-vote-on-a-m | 107 | {"NO": 96.3, "YES": 10.700000000000001} | Will the 1922 Committee vote on a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister before 5 May 2022? | 1651705140000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 96.3, "YES": 10.700000000000001} | 0 | 4.997052174443108 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644889701792 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if the 1922 Committee votes on a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister before 5 May 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.51006157470303, "YES": 33.83668719156768} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1644961039088 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644889701792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 1 | 1715658641707 | 0 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12000079999600002 | Bfwa1B2rdktsVEEfeG0d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.12000079999600002 | will-the-democratic-unionist-party | 150 | {"NO": 123, "YES": 27} | Will the Democratic Unionist Party be the largest party in Stormont following the 5 May 2022 election? | 1651705140000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 123, "YES": 27} | 0 | 4.90197002242149 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644891146281 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are the biggest party elected to the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly, which will be held on 5 May 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 140.71334691751883, "YES": 51.962043842308596} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1645529300530 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644891146281 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 2 | 1715657735044 | 0 | 0.12000079999600002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7749775005625 | utbbl5W7YwSD3gwDTWRX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7749775005625 | test-market-please-ignore | 20 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 11} | Test Market Please Ignore | 1644998340000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 11} | 0 | 5.8502737455136105 | True | play | NO | public | 1644891708589 | Jacob | This resolves however I like. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.487781663803188, "YES": 17.607441611432368} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1644892077862 | 100 | JiSK | 1644891708589 | 0 | 1 | 1715658840902 | 0 | 0.7749775005625 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7699999999999999 | ksCKIrVabvRO42UKb0vP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7699999999999999 | test-market-please-also-ignore | 20 | {"NO": 4.6, "YES": 15.4} | Test Market Please Also Ignore | 1644998340000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4.6, "YES": 15.4} | 0 | 5.8502737455136105 | True | play | YES | public | 1644891915541 | Jacob | This resolves however I like. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.592142629777772, "YES": 17.550806271222985} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004795831523312719, "YES": 0.0008774964387392122} | 0 | 1644892082404 | 100 | JiSK | 1644891915541 | 0 | 1 | 1715658605725 | 0 | 0.7699999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6351177666138846 | wKYbef6Lkm9QHWAkZG6D | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6351177666138846 | will-my-cat-still-be-sitting-on-my | 54 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 36} | Will my cat still be sitting on my lap in an hour? | 1644896100000 | r1GBMgrZifPSeju86daHiST0d9m2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 36} | 0 | 5.266098107453612 | True | play | YES | public | 1644892524878 | Kevin Zielnicki | My cat Emmy is currently sitting on my lap. She tends to spend a lot of time sitting on my lap, so I expect she'll probably stay. But she is a cat and hence can be fickle. I'm working on my computer and don't plan to get up for the next hour. This will resolve to Yes if she is still on my lap at time of close in 1 hour, No otherwise. If she gets up but is back on my lap at close, this will still be Yes.
Feb 14, 7:35pm: Happy to report that she is still here and sleeping peacefully. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.61956468440375, "YES": 43.03570611480657} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1644896165069 | 100 | kjz | 1644892524878 | 0 | 6 | 1715658875667 | 0 | 1644894160915 | 0.6351177666138846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8076566839193344 | zTamC8ISCgrHuqlco6TR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8076566839193344 | will-i-make-another-market-before-f | 145 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 108} | Will I make another market before February 19? | 1645246800000 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.91050305190295 | True | play | YES | public | 1644894070436 | Juan Gil | This market resolves to "YES" if I have made another market on Manifold Markets using this account before midnight ET on February 19. (in other words, at the end of Feb 18)
I want to make more markets, especially to use in EA community building, but I'm also busy and a bit lazy. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.59303421248274, "YES": 130.31199484563956} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1644965074133 | 100 | juan | 1644894070436 | 0 | 10 | 1715658973922 | 0 | 0.8076566839193344 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3486594435777987 | EEfhRaLTUjubwIc2CO2Y | {"NO": 455.2712183795744, "YES": 916.7930326707847} | 1 | a-market-on-manifold-markets-will-b | 32792.51987726945 | {"NO": 1135.1703583382864, "YES": 1121.702746323941} | A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022 | 1668050852850 | 8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 603.5, "YES": 1537.5} | 0 | 0.7284498426245917 | True | play | YES | public | 1644894150830 | Elena | This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1260.8498203470774, "YES": 1871.8275708049805} | {"creatorFee": 105.8098994444353, "platformFee": 3.4222388565785464, "liquidityFee": 18.8190827074793} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1668050852850 | 597.693714257616 | Elena | 1669144871935 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c | 0 | 164 | 1650313860154 | 0 | 152 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1668114603518}] | ["internet", "predictions-on-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1668050819198 | 1669144871018 | 0.14999393456455126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.062294306760037735 | CubfXLx0fRPPhCRWDBnM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.062294306760037735 | will-the-2022-baseball-season-be-sh | 1430.6127108440844 | {"NO": 572, "YES": 309.3872891559156} | Will the 2022 baseball season be shortened by the MLB lockout? | 1646961392257 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 572, "YES": 173} | 0 | 4.670268071222809 | True | play | NO | public | 1644895805341 | CompmanJX3 | This resolves to "YES" if regular season games are cancelled due to the ongoing MLB lockout or related labor strife (e.g. the players go on strike). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 853.4941568780179, "YES": 219.98418224107206} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646961392257 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1644895805341 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 8 | 1715657773130 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398345}] | ["sports-default"] | 1646945031148 | 0.062294306760037735 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6623662063854359 | rJMULJrna3ja0Pln9BGX | {"NO": 1913.0709240069555, "YES": 53.999870885810026} | 1 | will-there-be-cheese-made-with-case | 3060.4625958741344 | {"NO": 29.500000000000004, "YES": 20.5} | Will there be cheese made with casein or whey produced by precision fermentation comercially available somewhere in the world by end of 2023? | 1680018930063 | UeFNXhRnguf9LIbrNXM1s2ypxQu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 29.500000000000004, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 3.1807897981487856 | True | play | YES | public | 1644898754662 | Emily Soice | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*PRECISION fermentation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 22, 10:24pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be cheese made with casein or whey produced by prevision fermentation comercially available somewhere in the world by end of 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will there be cheese made with casein or whey produced by precision fermentation comercially available somewhere in the world by end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 38.40649685391783, "YES": 32.01626149958798} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849} | 0 | 1680018930063 | 220 | Emily | 1680018953960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjo2DJZBwg1klUhOgkq4tAs72KKJojG2gmn1Plt=s96-c | 9 | 1650314777321 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454608}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1666028643396}] | ["technology-default", "cellular-agriculture"] | 1680018606785 | 1680018948845 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9333895060356443 | hB3GKOrNTnU2VwpxzLwg | {"NO": 27.179842041646328, "YES": 110.91534306291999} | 0.7744600585118556 | will-5-members-of-the-cp-be-able-to | 1361 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 1025} | Will 5 Members of the CP be able to Bench 250lbs IRM by May 1st? | 1651463940000 | u0UECH7v0pQf2va17D7LVpHZf8h2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 1025} | 0 | 8.180224037148147 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644899209579 | Josh Purtell | This market resolves 'YES' if 4 members provide proof before 11:59, May 1st
Feb 14, 11:26pm: *5 members
Feb 14, 11:31pm:
Feb 14, 11:35pm: Only trade so far is NO so from here on out, the bet will resolve if SEVEN members provide proof before 11:59, May 1st | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 346.41109970777495, "YES": 1304.7996206315552} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1701231733728 | 100.50794162248005 | JoshPurtell | 1701231731117 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiglyoV5_ByS4t4PVjnxZzcS2-Cz727SLjg7xRoYw=s96-c | 5 | 1650314713461 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779964855}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1701231730518 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48504915481449745 | E1yRwbFrdKsH20TnlM65 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.48504915481449745 | before-i-created-this-market-i-flip | 266.00000000000006 | {"NO": 142.99999999999994, "YES": 121} | Before I created this market I flipped a coin, did it come up heads? | 1645138740000 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 143, "YES": 121} | 0 | 4.7882627406173945 | True | play | NO | public | 1644909235305 | Emanuel Rylke | md5 of the result: c2e8c513d8983a4c5f6fee5fe55698f8
Feb 18, 7:03am: Input to the md5 is "it came up tails\n" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 189.4473172167133, "YES": 183.86473832790776} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007810249675906654, "YES": 0.0006244997998398398} | 0 | 1645164334162 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1644909235305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 18 | 1715657803361 | 0 | 1 | 1645137828724 | 0.48504915481449745 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012620237975894857 | qQqeOFy5pj2EBbWq21U4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.012620237975894857 | will-total-war-warhammer-iii-have-8 | 1161.5226257305103 | {"NO": 1058.3283159698512, "YES": 54.14905829963857} | Will Total War: Warhammer III have 80% or higher positive review score on Steam from customer reviews on March 1st? | 1646121600000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1062.5, "YES": 50.5} | 0 | 4.659065153445328 | True | play | NO | public | 1644910654798 | SneakySly | As measured from the Steam "All Reviews" that looks at all user reviews across time, will Total War: WARHAMMER III (https://store.steampowered.com/app/1142710/Total_War_WARHAMMER_III/) have a user review score of 80% or higher at 12am PST on March 1st 2022 . | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1105.4362143765607, "YES": 124.97563427366607} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646121752282 | 100 | SneakySly | 1644910654798 | 0 | 7 | 1715658735700 | 0 | 1645852900825 | 0.012620237975894857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9802220212284531 | xZuKa7QR645acvhGQDXF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9802220212284531 | will-nasa-reach-30-million-twitter | 209.26404975050121 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 179.73595024949879} | Will @NASA reach 30 Million Twitter followers by March 1st | 1645430340000 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 180} | 0 | 4.843131453503138 | True | play | YES | public | 1644913990535 | April | Market resolves to YES if https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nasa lists a number higher than 30 million followers on 2/28 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.38667559781581, "YES": 192.80158140475862} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645112975991 | 100 | April | 1644913990535 | 0 | 7 | 1715658919650 | 0 | 1644915311844 | 0.9802220212284531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6562252693303888 | ITKszW1ozwCITrsnAvnE | {"NO": 931.5198500998289, "YES": 1025.803245890396} | 0.6341596727536015 | will-there-be-a-mobile-consumer-rob | 707.0910048156675 | {"NO": 150.00000000000003, "YES": 490} | Will there be a mobile consumer robot with an arm by 31st December 2024? | 1735660740000 | dGEpxl4W37Xi6faaVfSXGvRvGGj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150.00000000000003, "YES": 490} | 0 | 9.589305515683618 | False | basic | public | 1644923564377 | Jason de Lange | If you can place an order for a mobile robot that includes a robotic arm by the end of 2024 then this market resolves to Yes. This does not include crowdfunded robots with a promise on delivery at some unspecified date. | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 273.8618264751405, "YES": 578.4470416561053} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1000 | JasondeLange | 1711207193220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHvZsxp5YdEBGlkODI81dQXAWkyoUtX3cdXpsFUw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313888152 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446502}] | ["technology-default"] | 1711207189614 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6387716065214663 | Kg8gQyafGRNBGL68YNPj | {"NO": 757.0626611323148, "YES": 44.86944573728357} | 1 | will-the-alp-win-the-2022-australia | 1220.8805304132575 | {"NO": 131.22827958769437, "YES": 278.2257517322276} | Will the ALP win the 2022 Australian Federal Election? | 1653142634269 | pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 281} | 0 | 3.438919176039279 | True | play | YES | public | 1644923626754 | Watt | This market resolves to “YES” if after the 2022 Federal election in Australia the elected Australian PM is a member of the Labor Party. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 248.8419942805026, "YES": 325.1631660500626} | {"creatorFee": 12.8511862590399, "platformFee": 2.1924231557844593, "liquidityFee": 12.244480907706189} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1653142634269 | 112.24448090770618 | YairNeumann | 1653132056330 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c | 10 | 1650314537181 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481901}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112331}] | ["politics-default", "australia"] | 1653132054989 | 0.9675706791749079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45110905338967894 | jyt2YxDVJjz3rrwbCcHD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-there-be-a-female-fields-medal | 218 | {"NO": 103.99999999999999, "YES": 84} | Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022? | 1649109540000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 104, "YES": 84} | 0 | 2.799354183593326 | True | play | YES | public | 1644923870678 | jskf | Imported from Metaculus:
"The Fields Medal is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians. In 2014, the late Maryam Mirzakhani became the first female Fields Medalist. Maryna Viazovska is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022.
Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?
This question resolve to yes if reliable media reports indicate that a woman won the Fields Medal at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians."
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.28462944826327, "YES": 126.27021818489109} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007348469228349535, "YES": 0.0006782329983125268} | 0 | 1657141304992 | 100 | jskf | 1644923870678 | 0 | 7 | 1650314730946 | 0 | 1 | 0.45110905338967894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04031130491858334 | hMjMtEjfQ0TUoTd4ivrS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04031130491858334 | will-there-be-a-pi-variant-of-covid | 2511.8062180982733 | {"NO": 1692.6655187713134, "YES": 241.52826313041328} | Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? | 1646780340000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1721, "YES": 174} | 0 | 4.640636078302755 | True | play | NO | public | 1644924398191 | jskf | Imported from Metaculus:
"In honor of the mathematical constant that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.
Pi is also the Greek letter coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.
Prior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.
Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?
This resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as "pi" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022."
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9590/pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day/
Close date updated to 2022-03-08 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1894.8088163158682, "YES": 388.3413497781664} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1647364481342 | 100 | jskf | 1644924398191 | 0 | 43 | 1715658544831 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}] | ["medicine"] | 1645359861212 | 0.04031130491858334 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.044444740739259275 | lAanhJLVQvYscguHPhT0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.044444740739259275 | will-this-market-have-a-larger-pool | 150 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 10} | Will this market have a larger pool than "Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?" at any time before it resolves? | 1647471540000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.90197002242149 | True | play | NO | public | 1644926840034 | jskf | This market resolves to yes if at any point it has a larger pool than the following one (and that one has not yet resolved): https://manifold.markets/sam/will-this-question-set-the-record-f | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.6297377781874, "YES": 31.623092829449813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645089763944 | 100 | jskf | 1644926840034 | 0 | 3 | 1715658613945 | 0 | 0.044444740739259275 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3464054494757713 | ECzvWwUbFTQrSCtqtPj6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3464054494757713 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-91800-on | 438 | {"NO": 257.75, "YES": 180.25} | Will TSLA close at or over $918.00 on February 14, 2022? | 1644955200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 257.75, "YES": 180.25} | 0 | 4.72309994309356 | True | play | YES | public | 1644932468910 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $918.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 354.10276121522975, "YES": 257.790827029881} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1644958861319 | 100 | Predictor | 1644932468910 | 0 | 10 | 1715657811587 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424472}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1644940770351 | 0.3464054494757713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9528523446888744 | P5zglEc5fjioLfNvCRhb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9528523446888744 | who-is-a-good-boygirl-is-it-you-is | 556 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 511} | Who is a good boy/girl? Is it you? Is it you? | 1645257540000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 511} | 0 | 4.701157926369444 | True | play | YES | public | 1644932608206 | Em ✨ | Who among us can truly be said to be good? What is goodness? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 120.72733741990666, "YES": 542.7356833676038} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645253525336 | 100 | hamnox | 1644932608206 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 17 | 1715658099824 | 0 | 1644990122479 | 0.9528523446888744 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.036562912436621464 | wII74RKZxFV3syUZXYkC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.036562912436621464 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-tomorrow | 6377.181717428725 | {"NO": 5836.458548142925, "YES": 378.3597344283496} | Will Russia invade Ukraine tomorrow; 16-02-2022? | 1645036140000 | DzO5shYhVmSfVw5zID4IC85Rxzk1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5840.1, "YES": 368.9} | 0 | 4.623132970248396 | True | play | NO | public | 1644932743294 | Vinay Kumar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6100.145372309461, "YES": 1188.3623823191297} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1645204650799 | 100 | VinayKumar | 1644932743294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjk0ZMQoNpHDZVpUTtej3B-MapHrmjCU1kY5aS7HQ=s96-c | 49 | 1715658873919 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511615}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227067}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1644964938960 | False | 0.036562912436621464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49285563674363997 | a2w1ZSz5tLQAm1B2bRYY | {"NO": 59.746723731441136, "YES": 173.25455306786992} | 0 | matthew-gets-a-crossword-accepted-t | 217.89791566182745 | {"NO": 55.102084338172546, "YES": 48} | Matthew gets a crossword accepted to the NYT before July 1st, 2022. | 1656712740000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 48} | 0 | 2.8939091746788934 | True | play | NO | public | 1644932848507 | Matthew | This resolves Yes if a crossword is accepted by the NYT editors. It doesn't have to be published before this date. July 1st was chosen since a year is a long time to lock up any funny money.
For external info: I will consistently have 3 crosswords in their queue from now until the foreseeable future. The NYT got back to me about 30 days after my first submissions. None of those were accepted, and they were the first I ever submitted.
Feb 15, 7:31pm: Just checked, the NYT accepted about 1 in every 30 crosswords submitted in 2021. If the team continues checking my crosswords at the rate of 3/month, then about 12 crosswords will be viewed come resolution date. 1/30 chance, 12 times, gives us a base rate (assuming average crossword quality) of 33%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 73.39418279037217, "YES": 72.41229130871193} | {"creatorFee": 2.164755029300086, "platformFee": 0.084601843955432, "liquidityFee": 0.485404328089672} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1667580160264 | 100.48540432808967 | Matthew | 1656708010733 | 0 | 11 | 1650314653997 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662037648095}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1656708009236 | 0.2510111080016717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.91471440468928 | UOzJ9NT9g1HmcV5TYYui | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | matthew-travels-to-a-wedding-in-col | 157.6197957231294 | {"NO": 32.3802042768706, "YES": 48} | Matthew travels to a wedding in Colorado in April | 1650578340000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21, "YES": 48} | 0 | 8.423685569304403 | True | play | YES | public | 1644933146705 | Matthew | This one is pretty self explanatory. Long-time friend is getting married in CO in April. Would be a stretch to go visit, financially, plus it takes away from a chunk of vacation time. That being said, long-time friend. Resolves Yes if Matthew flies into CO on or before April 21st, 2022.
External info: Can't help you much here, my assessment is 20% as of opening. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.474283818681243, "YES": 76.87714875175847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1655445158977 | 100 | Matthew | 1644933146705 | 0 | 3 | 1650314609682 | 0 | 1 | 1646414318090 | 0.9147144046892799 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | tbgAmmMA7sBCc4J2jQVu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | matthew-records-a-10k-in-less-than | 25 | {"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75} | Matthew records a 10k in less than an hour in 2022. | 1645570740000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75} | 0 | 5.700548750959896 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644933629025 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 10k segment is less than 60 minutes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.590393550547223, "YES": 24.367960541456892} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1644946121086 | 100 | Matthew | 1644933629025 | 0 | 1 | 1715658816432 | 0 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01940265010573785 | 2vSLA8ADwADXJckY599u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01940265010573785 | will-russia-invade-moldova-in-febru | 1012.1954605711744 | {"NO": 614.8045394288256, "YES": 23} | Will Russia invade Moldova in February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 617, "YES": 23} | 0 | 4.690536283565363 | True | play | NO | public | 1644935721804 | Alex | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 631.587672057557, "YES": 88.84209942933141} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646148495847 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644935721804 | 0 | 12 | 1715656932374 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468070}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226398}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.01940265010573785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010004396880999992 | 3kOig2AjARgHbKORhcHN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010004396880999992 | will-queen-elizabeth-die-in-februar | 15190.130579531862 | {"NO": 8112.60473333032, "YES": 287.26468713782106} | Will Queen Elizabeth die in February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8137, "YES": 281} | 0 | 4.621054991439559 | True | play | NO | public | 1644936859368 | Alex | UK time | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8357.746982021969, "YES": 840.1716879056685} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646148465185 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644936859368 | 0 | 83 | 1715656948310 | 0 | 1 | 1645497856888 | 0.010004396880999992 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7000000000000002 | Ntrxu7Z7qrBPH7fdmhX2 | {"NO": 126.36959733411662, "YES": 90.45631364206989} | 0.77 | what-will-jordan-peeles-nope-rotten | 37 | {"NO": 3.0000000000000004, "YES": 7} | What will Jordan Peele's Nope Rotten Tomatoes audience score be one month after release? | 1660447488361 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.0000000000000004, "YES": 7} | 0 | 3.314650092739819 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644937981601 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.477773297609165, "YES": 8.36743692536729} | {"creatorFee": 0.6304026658833811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1660447488361 | 100 | p_journal | 1660447478994 | 0 | 1 | 1650314560206 | 0 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860947437}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | 1660447475729 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32002953506805937 | uOWkEm1TFrXj4MZqkW9s | {"NO": 104.51935024781359, "YES": 91.47976337109695} | 0.34969465992154164 | what-will-the-metacritic-metascore | 32.175317725798095 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | What will the Metacritic Metascore be for Morbius one month after its US release? | 1651420740000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | 0 | 3.183907082747104 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644938518950 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 20.6162557342501, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0.0778958304513511, "platformFee": 0.012982638408558516, "liquidityFee": 0.0778958304513511} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652411762970 | 100.07789583045135 | p_journal | 1644938518950 | 0 | 3 | 1650314794430 | 0 | 1 | 1651412137932 | 0.34969465992154164 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | JK2zFhmUb8BvuhFTvZQV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8 | will-russia-recognize-the-independe | 100 | {"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80} | Will Russia recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic by the end of February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644938637109 | Alex | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 44.7218067635913, "YES": 89.44361352718259} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1644950957699 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644938637109 | 0 | 1 | 1715657933174 | 0 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44826490758446846 | VAZPDee0P8W0MSsaUCw4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44826490758446846 | what-will-the-metacritic-metascore-cb7d2d28b5f9 | 110 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 52} | What will the Metacritic Metascore be for Uncharted one month after its US release? | 1647705540000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 52} | 0 | 4.9883961192309005 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644938696693 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.70750271853865, "YES": 73.64851662117849} | {"creatorFee": 0.2199343293433282, "platformFee": 0.05498358233583205, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647745091763 | 100 | p_journal | 1644938696693 | 0 | 3 | 1715658240418 | 0 | 1 | 1646751633868 | 0.44826490758446846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | WYRYxSqS44fSViga4RB2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-bluterra-successfully-raise-mo | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will Bluterra successfully raise money in 2022? | 1649260861738 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644939700842 | Ian Philips | We're running a pilot project with the city of Naples, FL in March and have potential for other pilots with The Recycling Partnership and other municipalities.
tech website: bluterra.io
operations division: clementinecurbside.com | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649260861738 | 100 | ian | 1644939700842 | 0 | 1 | 1715658268181 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6103316883938547 | bGA5IBMZ5woPVrPwWQmj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6103316883938547 | will-manifold-create-a-smartphone-a | 139.65639379273225 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 66.34360620726775} | Will Manifold create a smartphone app before the end of 2022? | 1645603140000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 67} | 0 | 4.966282509295063 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644940184961 | Oleg S | This market resolves to YES if Manifold app for trading/creating markets is available on Android/Apple app store by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 73.87474822514842, "YES": 92.45521831148423} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645899566124 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1644940184961 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 6 | 1715658391445 | 0 | 1 | 0.6103316883938547 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6566497442641688 | tTwz5m6rhlRFnmxrmW6z | {"NO": 192.2924067112172, "YES": 80.23310103085913} | 1 | will-manchester-city-football-club | 425.606901764631 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 85} | Will Manchester City Football Club win the 2021-2022 Premier League? | 1653238623873 | oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 85} | 0 | 2.9947993604046834 | True | play | YES | public | 1644940963301 | Nick Hansen | This market will resolve to Yes if, on May 23rd, 2022, Manchester City Football Club occupies the #1 position in the Premier League table.
Initial probability based on the FiveThirtyEight estimate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 65.33801343896216, "YES": 92.19636652737461} | {"creatorFee": 4.2821158359455636, "platformFee": 0.713685972657594, "liquidityFee": 4.2821158359455636} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1653238623873 | 104.28211583594555 | NickHansen | 1652987304448 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJMhAHO6lUyyX5TOGoPPZjylGQ3-DLNgmXUxS0Q_4=s96-c | 5 | 1650314790003 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409166}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000443}] | ["sports-default", "soccer"] | 1652987304290 | 1651800728745 | False | 0.820903483945252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17570698850208666 | 2QGxIf3yjmspSuafXAOk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17570698850208666 | will-i-go-to-the-eifel-in-march | 36.715450535665454 | {"NO": 26.25, "YES": 9.034549464334546} | Will I go to the Eifel in March? | 1646414495568 | R4FbgN5gRZb5FpjUaA2WDYS7ei23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26.25, "YES": 8.75} | 0 | 5.489426922317197 | True | play | NO | public | 1644944786570 | Torey | This market resolves YES if I go with my colleagues to the Eifel region of Germany/Belgium in March. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.03595637170834, "YES": 14.790791065727351} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646414495568 | 100 | Torey | 1644944786570 | 0 | 2 | 1715656921458 | 0 | 0.17570698850208666 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | jG8wBd8Ow2t9JByfJ2JK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | how-many-people-will-buy-get-baptiz | 171.31777728701417 | {"NO": 139.68222271298583, "YES": 11} | How many people will buy (& get baptized by) a bidet after seeing this market in February? | 1646117940000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.9008440687758 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644946031313 | Ian Philips | For each 5% we get 1 person to buy and radically change their life with a bidet.
Feb 15, 10:27am: I should say: how many people will be convinced by this market
Feb 15, 12:10pm: You have to post a video of baptizing yourself with the bidet | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.64382566978838, "YES": 34.65576431273736} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646137285705 | 100 | ian | 1644946031313 | 0 | 3 | 1715658568743 | 0 | 1 | 1645017284343 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9426015379249161 | cY9CcglrKSTKqFnwH3YJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9426015379249161 | matthew-records-a-10k-under-1-hour | 70 | {"NO": 5.25, "YES": 64.75} | Matthew records a 10k under 1 hour in 2022. | 1672527540000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.25, "YES": 64.75} | 0 | 5.1511516743779335 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946209389 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 10k segment is less than 60 minutes.
Feb 20, 4:55pm: https://pasteboard.co/bqcwST5p9XXu.jpg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.77082287814167, "YES": 67.96233884284737} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1645372654960 | 100 | Matthew | 1644946209389 | 0 | 3 | 1715658433146 | 0 | 0.9426015379249161 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9733853166806454 | kr86CNXEZj6hgkHs97Kr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9733853166806454 | will-we-dont-talk-about-bruno-from-53549f0f84ca | 57.315764698530515 | {"NO": 3.5, "YES": 43.184235301469485} | Will We Don't Talk About Bruno from Encanto still be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on the week ending February 19th? | 1645505940000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.5, "YES": 43.5} | 0 | 5.337658284332736 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946354913 | Kira | https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.616232680925654, "YES": 46.059789349318265} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645641944892 | 100 | Kira | 1644946354913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 6 | 1715658604263 | 0 | 1 | 0.9733853166806454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.85 | c8fjVkxWB3ezHuEI6WFl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | matthew-records-a-211k-under-2-hour | 25 | {"NO": 3.7500000000000004, "YES": 21.25} | Matthew records a 21.1k under 2 hours in 2022. | 1666278347645 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.7500000000000004, "YES": 21.25} | 0 | 5.436448474979963 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946410953 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 21.1k segment is less than 120 minutes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.682845663853167, "YES": 23.04978309767795} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1666278347645 | 100 | Matthew | 1644946410953 | 0 | 1 | 1650314669183 | 0 | 2 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.671288768780001 | aVOLKtPM6IXK7zlpOpmP | {"NO": 47.1659659854277, "YES": 144.4823612376961} | 0 | matthew-records-a-422k-marathon-und | 94.73006130261992 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 22} | Matthew records a 42.2k (marathon) under 4 hours in 2022. | 1671919478878 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 22} | 0 | 3.29522564405729 | True | play | NO | public | 1644946957689 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 42.2k segment is less than 240 minutes.
External info: I have run one marathon and one almost marathon before in less than 4 hours, but those are at least 3 years in the past. I am looking at running more, longer distances this year, but am not officially signed up for any marathon length distances. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.213910542377615, "YES": 30.31573849504577} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1671919478878 | 100 | Matthew | 1668350208122 | 0 | 5 | 1650314657782 | 0 | 6 | 1668350207987 | 1668347929146 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004907554364740757 | rCnvxAxaKJZIritrSDF0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004907554364740757 | will-wednesdays-xkcd-have-more-than | 5600.3722907706515 | {"NO": 4057.575349034656, "YES": 352.05236019469226} | Will Wednesday's xkcd have more than one panel? | 1645603140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4085, "YES": 225} | 0 | 4.626394266229284 | True | play | NO | public | 1644947901582 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/16/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count.)
Feb 16, 5:07pm: If no xkcd is posted on 2/16/22 (my time zone, PST) I'll resolve it to N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4398.795155008434, "YES": 308.9118604618659} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645102544755 | 100 | charlie | 1644947901582 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 29 | 1715658763178 | 0 | 1645075254997 | 0.004907554364740757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2603900859970383 | XNPUTIdCnAQx0bJNuSCk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2603900859970383 | will-i-get-offered-an-internship-at | 195 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 135} | Will I get offered an internship at CHAI this summer? | 1646778546247 | 9sTqcbZozmNFODWb5YGj5Gs7Ery2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.842856042885442 | True | play | YES | public | 1644948899568 | Katie Lu | This market resolves to YES if I receive an offer from CHAI for Summer 2022 (I was told to expect a final decision by late February, but it may take longer depending on their hiring team's workload.)
I just interviewed with 2 potential mentors over the past week or so. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.70140757967393, "YES": 177.06007455239592} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646778546247 | 100 | kqlu4156 | 1644948899568 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjxx8JKPa_3ewatqUhziu8TiATo5HjNf0UWKb0G-w=s96-c | 5 | 1715658291628 | 0 | 1646780139049 | 0.2603900859970383 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19423796952311637 | 7XeUUvQYoGKuuawHPPIq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.19423796952311637 | will-i-donate-50-to-wikipedia-in-fe | 3668.7805435369482 | {"NO": 173.33337777253843, "YES": 119.88607869051293} | Will I donate $50 to Wikipedia in February 2022? | 1646121540000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192, "YES": 119} | 0 | 4.772320730636125 | True | play | NO | public | 1644949039773 | Oleg S | I want to test if Manifold Market can be cashed out indirectly. I will donate $50 to Wikipedia foundation in February if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $50.
If you want to indirectly donate your $M to Wikipedia, buy NO
Mar 1, 6:59pm: The market closed at 19%, which produces $M120 profit after ante investment of $M100. The $M120 can be bought for just $1.2, so the condition for donating to Wikipedia is not satisfied. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 263.2071391269817, "YES": 129.22940068339713} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1646190164664 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1644949039773 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 15 | 1715657628980 | 0 | 1 | 1646116649256 | 0.19423796952311637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7139722145001657 | GQS1ayuxAuIHtLn9GIfh | {"NO": 482.3123760128557, "YES": 65.97345792226454} | 1 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo | 1621.7704230617755 | {"NO": 82.43193379532278, "YES": 167.44226416557626} | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," in the United States? | 1655568000000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 78, "YES": 170} | 0 | 3.4893715506192615 | True | play | YES | public | 1644953109635 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/19-1392.html
This case is largely cited as the one which would, "Overturn Roe v. Wade."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women's_Health_Organization
However it is possible that the interpretation of, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," may differ when getting into the details. Thus, the bet itself is purely on the outcome of the case, not on, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," which is in quotes and stated as, "colloquially," for said reason.
A "YES" vote means that the Supreme Court Conservative wing votes as expected and supports the State of Mississippi Department of Health.
A "NO" vote means that the Supreme Court Liberal wing votes as expected, and a sufficient number of conservative justices jump over and support the Jackson Women's Health Organization in the outcome of the case.
This market is scheduled to close at the middle of the day EST on June 18th, 2022, the day the case is supposed to be heard. If for whatever reason the case is heard later, or judgement is pushed to a later date the resolution of the market will change but the market will remain closed per Manifold Market's rules. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 136.6537296873741, "YES": 209.19697110266335} | {"creatorFee": 9.200665050685783, "platformFee": 1.3607651884824656, "liquidityFee": 8.164591130894793} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1656088874983 | 108.16459113089478 | PatrickDelaney | 1655410177649 | 0 | 20 | 1650313874829 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330761}] | ["scotus"] | 1655410176157 | 1652816217629 | 0.948048475205344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.88 | L3GDUP3scfpZppkBUmas | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.88 | can-manifold-markets-solve-this-mat | 912.8568843821375 | {"NO": 92.35619194530602, "YES": 368.78692367255644} | Can Manifold Markets solve this math problem? | 1644998340000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 380} | 0 | 4.717955531789002 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644954249411 | Rahul Sridhar | 4 points are chosen uniformly at random on the surface of a sphere. What is the probability that there is a hemisphere containing all 4 points?
This question uses Manifold Markets' PROB resolution, and resolves to the probability asked for in the above problem.
Feb 16, 12:01am: The correct answer (as many commenters pointed out, and as the market seems to have inferred) is 7/8 = 87.5%. I rounded this to 88% when resolving. The question is equivalent to the probability that the tetrahedron formed by the 4 points does not contain the sphere's center, which appeared as question A6 on a past Putnam Exam. The very elegant solution is presented by 3Blue1Brown in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkmNXy7er84 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 164.2442803240042, "YES": 430.90336706717716} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644998534268 | 100 | fortenforge | 1644954249411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 10 | 1715657965573 | 0 | 1644975928938 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8358371590786811 | X776YcJRZZVLdy467VXD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8358371590786811 | is-microsoft-office-2019-is-the-las | 199 | {"NO": 39, "YES": 160} | Is Microsoft Office 2019 is the last OEM / Perpetual version of Office? | 1672506000000 | ruICuyLDhbhsg2p1MJI23aVqDrL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 39, "YES": 160} | 0 | 4.838764191192149 | True | play | NO | public | 1644954752954 | Anthony Peterson | Usually Office perpetual versions have been updated every 3 years, but if we don't see Office 2022 this year, it would seem they have gone from strongly encouraging Office 365, to not supporting Perpetual at all. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 80.62926267987324, "YES": 181.93493342593666} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645034341718 | 100 | AnthonyPeterson | 1644954752954 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6Se3lLl7KLNeb0yooHgjcUR78bSawSCd2SznS=s96-c | 3 | 1715658285288 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449871}] | ["technology-default"] | 1644971785479 | 0.8358371590786811 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.812501275470725 | dokgik65h0fUGP6rPY3K | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.812501275470725 | will-project-lawful-and-their-obliv | 42 | {"NO": 6.75, "YES": 35.25} | Will "project lawful and their oblivious boyfriend" update on Wednesday? | 1645030800000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6.75, "YES": 35.25} | 0 | 5.392812367046689 | True | play | YES | public | 1644957051999 | Em ✨ | Pacific time. Will resolve NA it if it's obviously an under the wire thing like 1 tag at 11:58pm. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.186904633554335, "YES": 37.85921949604878} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1645071748154 | 100 | hamnox | 1644957051999 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 6 | 1715658471997 | 0 | 0.812501275470725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2733190301158057 | 4slpvmtjTJT8Z5m2l8WH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2733190301158057 | will-the-80k-jobs-board-bot-be-fini | 2002.4032587369347 | {"NO": 979.0967412630653, "YES": 1016.5} | Will the 80k jobs board bot be finished by Mar 1? | 1646035140000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 979.5, "YES": 1016.5} | 0 | 4.6398608098489635 | True | play | NO | public | 1644962327131 | Em ✨ | Current programmer is busy with other projects, asked if others were interested in EA corner. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1701.158961394751, "YES": 1043.2969534128717} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000648074069840786, "YES": 0.0007615773105863907} | 0 | 1646178765023 | 100 | hamnox | 1644962327131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 13 | 1715656984416 | 0 | 1 | 0.2733190301158057 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | 8FKF2AgFJN1Byd7Z0WiC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-major-league-baseball-be-playe | 100 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | Will Major League Baseball be played at all in 2022? | 1646959647961 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644964655819 | CompmanJX3 | The market resolves to "Yes" if Major League Baseball games are played in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1646959647961 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1644964655819 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 1 | 1715657638604 | 0 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9852127240169498 | FAYO5PlQq4ZmlRTIzcup | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9852127240169498 | will-eagxboston-2022-take-place-the | 46.066869808881876 | {"NO": 1.5000000000000004, "YES": 40.433130191118124} | Will EAGxBoston 2022 take place the first weekend of April? | 1648900792264 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.5000000000000004, "YES": 40.5} | 0 | 5.393663805878533 | True | play | YES | public | 1644965024923 | Juan Gil | This market resolves to "YES" if the conference EAGxBoston 2022 takes place on April 1, April 2, or April 3 of 2022.
This market resolves to "NO" if the conference is postponed or cancelled such that it doesn't take place on those dates or if it no longer has the name "EAGxBoston".
Conference details here: https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxboston-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.099313684212808, "YES": 41.622929676269116} | {"creatorFee": 0.057325207644725006, "platformFee": 0.014331301911181251, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1648900792264 | 100 | juan | 1644965024923 | 0 | 6 | 1715657835334 | 0 | 0.9852127240169498 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9821562417440015 | oRvSQPhv3lIZ0cJuGPfL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9821562417440015 | will-manifold-markets-users-send-me | 2590.463389117116 | {"NO": 325.23968594066116, "YES": 1648.2969249422226} | Will Manifold Markets users send me $10 worth of crypto to cause this question to resolve YES before the end of the Winter Olympics? | 1645333140000 | q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192.5, "YES": 1653.5} | 0 | 4.640133856583903 | True | play | YES | public | 1644967164216 | alexlyzhov | This market resolves to "YES" if and only if the total value of all incoming transactions to the wallets listed below exceeds the equivalent of $10 before the end of the Winter Olympics.
Solana: https://solscan.io/account/EztYGQvMGy9shzgpWNox9U8zHkHPK5mSgXxo3PFWHyPQ
Polygon: https://polygonscan.com/address/0x9655F2F2962633826DcAEBd61D15E00cdA17938a
Tezos: https://tzstats.com/tz1cv4r95y3JLeJyxAyXwSmzHFg8v5vgMdBo
Only transactions submitted prior to 12am ET on 20th February 2022 are counted up. I determine the final value of all transactions by looking up the token prices on 20th February.
Feb 18, 1:10pm: Alright, now I was just wondering if you consider myself to be a Manifold Markets user? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 263.62620196408636, "YES": 1955.8506914402512} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645334342684 | 100 | alexlyzhov | 1644967164216 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145 | 33 | 1715658681748 | 0 | 1645302642852 | 0.9821562417440015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.77 | 3rewHHouDb8jW974IuvU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.77 | is-it-pretty | 110 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 77} | is it pretty? | 1645603140000 | HH6nyOCRMgfDs8CGsCxR3Vh3Nhj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 77} | 0 | 4.988396119230901 | True | play | NO | public | 1644968534214 | nick jones | resolves to yes is pretty stuff is pretty, ever. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 66.33299330069465, "YES": 87.75052137035996} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004795831523312719, "YES": 0.0008774964387392122} | 0 | 1644968671815 | 100 | nickjones | 1644968534214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8BBzosvNDfV7a2R04Pv90IYBegT_YiefSIIg=s96-c | 1 | 1715656957271 | 0 | 0.77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5051309021408631 | BMO5VdGeXL5jl1inghh9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5051309021408631 | can-you-be-sure-that-random-is-not | 14 | {"NO": 4.1, "YES": 9.9} | Can you be sure that "random is not knowing about the process of the cause-effect relationship?" | 1645289940000 | bDX5FjgGfaSBi48a9aJ6pBnf34f1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4.1, "YES": 9.9} | 0 | 2.7728807194099776 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644972315371 | Seremonia | This must be accepted 100%, but the policy allows only 99% rated | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.84927408543391, "YES": 9.950869358503306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1701090630158 | 100 | Seremonia | 1701090626541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj-nEE8Yhq8B9bTZBFINaFDtfalKifnBnQA_9dv5Q=s96-c | 2 | 1650313839644 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1701090625667 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06726721382464892 | fVhLMitb4xPNzmp7Jzws | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06726721382464892 | will-i-get-a-covid-test-before-marc | 355.85518276916076 | {"NO": 228.14481723083924, "YES": 40} | Will I get a Covid test before March 10th? | 1646812740000 | qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 231, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.785806864516165 | True | play | NO | public | 1644974834407 | Unconditional Probability | Feb 13th I had a sore throat, Feb 15th I had a sore throat, mild fever, runny nose, sneezing and lethargy. As all of the symptoms are mild, I am not recommended to get a Covid test.
If my symptoms worsen enough, I will get a Covid test, and this market will resolve YES.
If that does not happen by March 10th, this market will resolve No.
Feb 15, 5:34pm: I am between 20 - 25 years old, and Male. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 258.9701141619845, "YES": 69.5460945655711} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646899664066 | 100 | UnconditionalProbability | 1644974834407 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c | 13 | 1715658508298 | 0 | 1 | 1646285829061 | 0.06726721382464892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02426656758518793 | XXXlSNLrm4tc9g7nxOlW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02426656758518793 | will-pepe-remain-1-on-the-top-trade | 792.994368720477 | {"NO": 492.93352170363164, "YES": 42.07210957589132} | Will Pepe remain #1 on the Top Traders leaderboard as of March 1st? | 1646110740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 493, "YES": 35} | 0 | 4.704384752502331 | True | play | NO | public | 1644975328348 | Duncn | As per https://manifold.markets/leaderboards, will Pepe be #1 on the 1st of March? This will resolve yes if e is #1 when I check the leaderboard on March 1st, which will most likely be circa 5:00 PM, EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 528.4753778770074, "YES": 83.3418891723587} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646135267607 | 100 | Duncn | 1644975328348 | 0 | 11 | 1715658296144 | 0 | 1 | 1645017621592 | 0.02426656758518793 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09020523306568061 | LYm1h9jz9ZBbrnBIijlV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09020523306568061 | if-i-get-a-covid-test-by-march-10th | 285.7113985026825 | {"NO": 153.13723693533282, "YES": 51.15136456198462} | If I get a Covid test by March 10th, will it be positive? | 1646899739866 | qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 53} | 0 | 4.833575511318976 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644975527920 | Unconditional Probability | Feb 13th I had a sore throat, Feb 15th I had a sore throat, mild fever, runny nose, sneezing and lethargy. As all of the symptoms are mild, I am not recommended to get a Covid test.
I am between 20 - 25 years old, and Male.
If my symptoms worsen enough, I will get a Covid test.
If I do not get a test by March 10th, this market resolves NA.
If I get a test, this market remains open until I get test results, at which point it resolves YES if the test is positive, and NO if it is negative.
Mar 10, 12:08am: I did not get a test by March 10th, resolving NA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 194.8578823616255, "YES": 61.35671895950503} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646899739866 | 100 | UnconditionalProbability | 1644975527920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c | 7 | 1715657977618 | 0 | 1644975646775 | 0.09020523306568061 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.972091884069661 | cZ3au6fOYEASP0kYH8F9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.972091884069661 | will-manifold-markets-users-send-al | 765.11952719378 | {"NO": 63.78047280621996, "YES": 369.1} | Will Manifold Markets users send alexlyzhov $10 worth of crypto to cause ier question to resolve YES before the end of the Winter Olympics? | 1645308000000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48.900000000000006, "YES": 369.1} | 0 | 4.724308317834911 | True | play | YES | public | 1644976030546 | Duncn | This will resolve yes if https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-manifold-markets-users-send-me resolves yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.61025460838299, "YES": 429.2946180436845} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645283650450 | 100 | Duncn | 1644976030546 | 0 | 14 | 1715658434415 | 0 | 1645264633754 | 0.972091884069661 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5867761081958199 | ViEwNNaWDVsIDnl7K1QY | {"NO": 61.07848810162298, "YES": 141.50877448498755} | 0 | will-the-2022-atlantic-hurricane-se | 234.90928910917657 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season be more active than average? | 1672549140000 | RgGl9Su3TIRqrOiVhbDTPbM1b3f1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | 0 | 2.946238335533881 | True | play | NO | public | 1644979003974 | Drew Polasky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) as measured by NOAA. This will resolve yes if the total ACE for the 2022 season exceeds the 1991-2020 average value of 122.1 x10^4 kt^2", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 84.26220980071672} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672622581686 | 100 | DrewPolasky | 1670257331381 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghj0wJfGQmMhF-MwE73fRRi5B3alEtisrSsiZVR=s96-c | 5 | 1650314619561 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1670257331208 | 0.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.026077142189208077 | a66gSR5T68k61ByJQbXG | {"NO": 99.7743185598431, "YES": 109.99762959969064} | 0.023710968324864877 | will-i-donate-bone-marrow-before-th | 262.1975446019723 | {"NO": 162.97922611175383, "YES": 36.82322928627387} | Will I donate bone marrow before the end of August 2022? | 1662004800000 | mNn3YOAwsFPloL70twZZJb7ayy93 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 167, "YES": 25} | 0 | 9.675077147847531 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644979120110 | Lorelei | this market resolves to YES if i have undergone a procedure to donate either Peripheral blood stem cell donation (PBSC) or Bone marrow donation before the end of August 2022, and NO if on September 1st I've still not undergone either of these procedures. for context, i have already received an email indicating I have a preliminary match with a potential recipient in need. this market is meant to account for the possibility they decide they no longer need me in particular, or if I find the process too trying or difficult and back out or fail to move through the process well enough, as well ai helping me learn whatever the baseline rates for how successful this process is once you've reached this point. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 197.1810609272393, "YES": 32.26530645445662} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1680899790981 | 100.01422240185612 | Lorelei | 1680899790240 | 0 | 12 | 1650314654744 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893888}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1661420197680 | 1680899788126 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.983601580331787 | RPBJb398xs16NdgKXXxB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.983601580331787 | will-the-power-outage-affecting-my | 215 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 203} | Will the power outage affecting my neighbors be resolved by Thursday morning? | 1645084740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 203} | 0 | 4.823773574090237 | True | play | YES | public | 1644979672139 | Alicorn | The power has been out at several of my neighbors' houses all day. (My house has solar and a Powerwall, so they're all coming here for electricity-related needs.) When I wake up on Thursday will I find that it's all fixed? There were like four PG&E cherrypickers actively working on utility poles and wires near my place when I went out to the park this afternoon. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.532235661130027, "YES": 213.23087487627114} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645129697390 | 100 | Alicorn | 1644979672139 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 9 | 1715658168206 | 0 | 1 | 1645037321837 | 0.983601580331787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3111311390254658 | v84pjLPaVdZsI0EB8ANM | {"NO": 103.68241044003571, "YES": 270.05103531462714} | 0 | will-i-get-covid-in-2022 | 251.5571362201186 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 32.777667845522366} | Will I get covid in 2022? | 1672559940000 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 33} | 0 | 2.6275556496880843 | True | play | NO | public | 1644979813120 | Anna | This question will resolve to YES if, at some point during 2022, I get a positive covid test (official PCR test or Cue molecular at-home test) and don't for some reason believe it is a false positive.
To avoid edge cases, the market will resolve N/A if I get a positive test but believe it is a false positive for some reason (e.g. if I take several tests around the same time and only one is positive). Any other weird edge cases (at my discretion) will also resolve N/A.
Barring weird edge cases, the question will resolve NO if I don't get a positive covid test at any point in 2022.
I currently take a Cue molecular at-home covid test before all medium-large social gatherings, i.e. maybe 3-4 times a month on average, as well as anytime I have symptoms reminiscent of a cold/flu/covid.
Background info:
- I live in the SF Bay Area
- I've never had covid so far
- Fully vaxed & boosted, and so is basically everyone I hang out with
- I currently work fully from home, but at some point in the year will probably start working in the office about half-time
My covid policy when there aren't unusually high covid levels:
- mask (usually KN95 or P100) in public indoor places (e.g. stores, transit)
- might dine indoor in a restaurant if the microcovids are low and/or I really want to, but default to outdoor
- basically no restrictions on hanging out with vaccinated family/friends who haven't had a recent covid exposure
- this includes choir rehearsals every other week (or every week in November and December), indoors but with many air filters, many choir members test pre-rehearsal
- also an average of about 2 parties a month
My covid policy when there ARE unusually high covid levels (e.g. this past month):
- mask (usually KN95 or P100) in public indoor places (e.g. stores, transit), no indoor dining
- no restrictions on individual or small-group hangouts with vaccinated family/friends who haven't had a recent covid exposure
- choir happens outside if at all
- no big indoor parties
(However, I may drop even these precautions in the future if ambient covid risk levels get low enough.)
Going to be doing some indoor group singing this weekend in particular. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.78920367028616, "YES": 53.51521105455576} | {"creatorFee": 0.498465493586549, "platformFee": 0.08307758226442484, "liquidityFee": 0.498465493586549} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1672565761484 | 140.49846549358654 | tcheasdfjkl | 1670512758560 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 16 | 1650314799208 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1670512758424 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2806345226244328 | t1jCVIRiJWBXZIWxcWod | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2806345226244328 | this-will-resolve-at-whatever-proba | 2401.1481482400777 | {"NO": 1085, "YES": 1055.8518517599223} | This will resolve at whatever probability the implied probability is at resolve time using the PROB function. | 1645592340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1085, "YES": 1057} | 0 | 4.6382018074604545 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644985646548 | Garrett Baker | If the probability is 20%, then it resolves to 20%. If the probability is 90% it resolves to 90%. Same with all other percents. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1815.7732499597564, "YES": 1134.1157073328877} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645592739382 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644985646548 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 10 | 1715658797222 | 0 | 1645592369209 | 0.2806345226244328 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15717503980880906 | 0DUTSSIHVI1QFGlve2q2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15717503980880906 | what-random-number-16-did-google-pi | 26 | {"NO": 21.75, "YES": 4.25} | What random number (1-6) did Google pick for me? | 1645621140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21.75, "YES": 4.25} | 0 | 5.675241861354484 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644986767568 | Undox | Resolves to YES if the first guess made in the comments matches the number picked.
To prove the result, here is a SHA256 hash of the answer, with a salt. I can reveal the original plaintext after closing. 5f06819f235d40c1815ecf1e87baa603fa073abadde912c8829d975ada67d420
Feb 16, 3:46pm: I will not bet either.
Feb 16, 6:22pm: guess must be 1
to 6 of course | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.870347731652338, "YES": 10.308176374606713} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009110433579144299, "YES": 0.0004123105625617661} | 0 | 1645070357824 | 100 | Undox | 1644986767568 | 0 | 2 | 1715656862520 | 0 | 1644995257768 | 0.15717503980880906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8401203455406355 | X9uofGiBgY7WJ4cIForB | {"NO": 411.72428269864446, "YES": 93.47264585591125} | 1 | will-mark-zuckerberg-still-be-metas | 777.9512867129031 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 496} | Will Mark Zuckerberg still be Meta's CEO on January 1st, 2023? | 1672559940000 | CZRHUYZhLfVUSco4lNb9Xi69Fr62 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 496} | 0 | 4.80890364356118 | True | play | YES | public | 1644987658081 | Scott Mackie | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 252.0400206318433, "YES": 524.596027435302} | {"creatorFee": 0.7859287057824098, "platformFee": 0.042200851754808213, "liquidityFee": 0.2532051105288493} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1677364818820 | 120.25320511052885 | ScottMackie | 1669134784226 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo0RslEHH9ih_DYSP_KYVeik1gT8FL_ihO5VHK7Os=s96-c | 27 | 1650314628133 | 0 | 12 | 27 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449940}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670554564}] | ["technology-default", "please-resolve"] | 1669134783951 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9902122369879902 | U6uDtpHvgrJAWIgxyP2e | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9902122369879902 | will-i-write-my-first-ever-glowfic | 2513.6382949894855 | {"NO": 97.70819569491918, "YES": 1846.6535093155953} | Will I write my first ever glowfic before the end of the month? | 1647307004922 | mNn3YOAwsFPloL70twZZJb7ayy93 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 94, "YES": 1852} | 0 | 4.6405043593759405 | True | play | YES | public | 1644988786901 | Lorelei | this market will resolve to YES if i contribute 10 or more tags to a single thread on the glowfic website before the end of March 16th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.36187647403196, "YES": 1934.8238258599138} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1647307004922 | 100 | Lorelei | 1644988786901 | 0 | 22 | 1715658223043 | 0 | 1647140554623 | 0.9902122369879902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.829294001082559 | qkOHGUgpVpT7A8BRPK88 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.829294001082559 | will-i-get-exceeds-expectations-or | 299.46768474846385 | {"NO": 48.69349519390681, "YES": 161.83882005762936} | Will I get "exceeds expectations" or higher in my upcoming performance review? | 1649879813233 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48.400000000000006, "YES": 168.6} | 0 | 4.827752547460188 | True | play | YES | public | 1644989767545 | Anna | In the one last fall I got "consistently meets expectations" but was told I'm near the top of that bucket; since then, I've taken on more & higher-level responsibilities, and my manager seems pretty happy with how I'm doing. I also personally think that I've gotten more done this cycle than last, though still less than I think I'm actually supposed to.
Close date updated to 2022-04-14 11:30 am
Apr 12, 10:02pm: changed closing date to this Thursday since I found out I will learn my results then!
Apr 13, 12:56pm: got my results early, resolving now! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 86.98517087811786, "YES": 191.72338636198594} | {"creatorFee": 1.6772926100614476, "platformFee": 0.4193231525153619, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00042426406871192855, "YES": 0.0009055385138137417} | 0 | 1649879813233 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1644989767545 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 14 | 1715658749587 | 0 | 0.829294001082559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21191243030078094 | 2ls1daxzy9H1oDsWvw69 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21191243030078094 | will-i-get-a-strongly-exceeds-expec | 144.65918822731908 | {"NO": 79.8836052493058, "YES": 23.45720652337512} | Will I get a "strongly exceeds expectations" rating (or higher) in my upcoming performance review? | 1649879847283 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80.5, "YES": 23.5} | 0 | 5.008176694508541 | True | play | NO | public | 1644989885299 | Anna | In the one last fall I got "consistently meets expectations" but was told I'm near the top of that bucket; since then, I've taken on more & higher-level responsibilities, and my manager seems pretty happy with how I'm doing. I also personally think that I've gotten more done this cycle than last, though still less than I think I'm actually supposed to.
See also https://manifold.markets/tcheasdfjkl/will-i-get-exceeds-expectations-or
Close date updated to 2022-04-14 11:30 am
Apr 12, 10:02pm: changed closing date to this Thursday since I found out I will learn my results then!
Apr 13, 12:56pm: got my results early so resolving now! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 91.74096626304875, "YES": 47.572315158949024} | {"creatorFee": 0.9136324709072369, "platformFee": 0.22840811772680922, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1649879847283 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1644989885299 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 12 | 1715656930620 | 0 | 1644998249772 | 0.21191243030078094 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.060553382335576764 | kYyBv2amSdjiyp8zZY6n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.060553382335576764 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-17022022 | 284 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 14} | Will Russia invade Ukraine 17-02-2022 (Ukraine local time) | 1645059540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 14} | 0 | 4.777023617442998 | True | play | NO | public | 1644996713546 | Undox | If there is a bandwagon, Im jumping on it
Feb 17, 12:00pm: ok it is closer to avoid live betting that i cannot react quickly. best of luck to NO for obvious reasons as on all these kinds of bets. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 275.26812383739605, "YES": 69.88582116595612} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002} | 0 | 1645135040959 | 100 | Undox | 1644996713546 | 0 | 9 | 1715658599640 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502683}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226933}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.060553382335576764 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5036665648169366 | jZ7gRgcLXPcQFMi3eTtm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5036665648169366 | will-the-sp-500-close-with-at-an-ev | 72 | {"NO": 32, "YES": 40} | Will the S&P 500 close with at an even number of cents on February 16th, 2022? | 1645047900000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 32, "YES": 40} | 0 | 5.139639355189075 | True | play | NO | public | 1644997617904 | Adam | This market will resolve true if the closing price of the S&P 500 as reported by my quickly googling it shortly after 2 PM PST on February 16th 2022, in US Cents, is divisible by two.
Feb 16, 2:18pm: Closing price: 4,475.01, resolved NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.72537826867337, "YES": 51.09872797340457} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645049925354 | 100 | Adam | 1644997617904 | 0 | 3 | 1715658578782 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574234}] | ["economics-default"] | 1644998074789 | 0.5036665648169366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.003374916300011877 | 31DDtQuOymXFDrfAQZL9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.003374916300011877 | will-this-market-have-an-even-numbe | 6664.095298080923 | {"NO": 6008.8574144919985, "YES": 239.04728742707803} | Will this market have an even numbered probability when trading closes? | 1645343940000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5988, "YES": 243} | 0 | 4.623090711510444 | True | play | YES | public | 1645000516325 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6237.353711976751, "YES": 362.9660201213771} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645690310672 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1645000516325 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 18 | 1715656937362 | 0 | 1 | 0.003374916300011877 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8415176827223161 | GKajF9Z0YrOYDcA4J8nX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8415176827223161 | will-i-release-a-substantive-web3-c | 3434.146152840423 | {"NO": 663.5033235569044, "YES": 1442.3505236026729} | Will I release a substantive web3 (crypto) game in 30 days? | 1646869680000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 672, "YES": 1409} | 0 | 4.638580849279846 | True | play | YES | public | 1645001107997 | Undox | I am learning web3 and smart contracts.
The goal is to release a game based on this.
I haven’t chosen the game but the level of complexity might be:
* Texas holdem, adapted for zero trust and decentralized play
* Dynamic Paramutual! Inspired by this site.
* Chess (there is some prior art i can use for this)
* Something of similar weight.
The game will be testnet only so people can easily get free money to play with but like manifold it wont be easy to get unlimited
amounts so it will feel worth something.
No requirement to get players for this bet. Just the game on a public website.
Feb 26, 10:53pm: I have I think finished the contract! It allows you to register (and get free play money as a result), create a market, bet and resolve a market. It enforces a close time too. I am now taking a few days break from this, and will come back and start implementing a UI using NextJS. I will probably get all the mechanics in first, then put in the IPFS related stuff last.
Close date updated to 2022-03-10 10:48 am
Closing because I want to take what I have and run it by Discord for some judgement | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 838.3373955495971, "YES": 1931.7906326847647} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646882226977 | 100 | Undox | 1645001107997 | 0 | 24 | 1715657862516 | 0 | 1 | 1646645798091 | 0.8415176827223161 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9133460261495443 | gxSfxyXYQfeKCidQFTQt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9133460261495443 | will-my-application-to-attend-ea-gl | 427 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 171.00000000000003} | Will my application to attend EA Global 2022 be successful? | 1647257242283 | vpUKQAVSO1TNHrsAIfw5izIfEu03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 171} | 0 | 4.8310079614964065 | True | play | YES | public | 1645010117085 | Sam Atis | I applied this year to go to EA Global 2022 in London. These were some relevant answers to the questions they asked in the application form.
Imagine the event(s) you are applying to has/have gone exceptionally well for you. What will have happened?
I will have networked with a number of EAs and potential funders who think Social Change Lab's mission to use social science research to find cost effective interventions is interesting/important. - I will have discovered an idea that seems interesting/important that I wasn't aware of before or that I didn't value as much as I should have, maybe it would change my donations over the next year or few years. - I will have connected with some EAs who are interested specifically in politics, institutions, and social science research to bounce ideas off and socialise with.
Please briefly describe your current approach to improving the world.
I currently work as a Research Manager for Social Change Lab, focusing on using social science research to find cost-effective interventions for EA grantmakers (we are currently specifically looking at funding small protest movements, but may expand into looking at social science research to support other interventions). I am a blogger at https://atis.substack.com, writing about social science research and philosophy. I am a forecaster who is trying to forecast questions that are related to EA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 60.93498174570991, "YES": 197.8290726881416} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1647257242283 | 100 | SamAtis | 1645010117085 | 0 | 7 | 1715658537435 | 0 | 0.9133460261495443 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014846237304686441 | 9AXNpz8T2SZnzbsjKz8X | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014846237304686441 | will-tesla-stock-be-above-900-when | 2510.652564748254 | {"NO": 1501.3474352517462, "YES": 160} | Will Tesla stock be above $900 when markets close on February 28? | 1646089140000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1525, "YES": 160} | 0 | 4.64476376174871 | True | play | NO | public | 1645014403136 | Valentin Manès |
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1648.9699333499452, "YES": 202.42722697627258} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646100527145 | 100 | ValentinManes | 1645014403136 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 14 | 1715657660156 | 0 | 1 | 0.014846237304686441 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8810219816920045 | trQUCZmaALJUOzdKAG1f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | using-the-selenographic-coordinate | 205 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 155} | Using the Selenographic Coordinate System, Will the Chang'e 5-T1 booster Hit the Moon at +5.18, east longitude 233.55 on March 5th, Approximately 12:25 Universal Time, Within | 1646396700000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 155} | 0 | 6.612595933412692 | True | play | NO | public | 1645014415128 | Patrick Delaney | From This Story:
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/15/1080827033/space-junk-piece-set-to-hit-the-moon-likely-from-a-chinese-rocket-not-spacex?live=1
Independent Astronomical Software Supplier and Astronomer, "Project Pluto," has forecasted as of 16 Feb 2022 that there is an object, originally identified as a SpaceX rocket and now identified as the Chang'e 5-T1 Booster, will hit the Moon at latitude +5.18, east longitude 233.55, using the Selenographic Coordinate System, plus or minus a few seconds or kilometers.
* This bet is not about the exact time of the impact, but about the location of the impact within a range of precision of the impact at or around the day in question. If for whatever reason the object misses the moon completely, the bet will resolve to NO.
* This bet is not a bout what exactly the object is, but again, the range of precision of impact. The bet is not dependent upon what exactly this object is, but it is agreed that we are all thinking of the same object currently defined as the Chang'e 5-T1 Booster.
* Universal Time will be accepted to mean UTC (see below).
"YES" outcome will mean that the object did indeed hit the circle defined within or on the projected Coordinates, "plus or minus a few seconds," with "a few" being defined as, "within 4 seconds."
"NO" outcome will mean that the object did not hit within (e.g. greater than the radius of) the circle defined within the projected Coordinates, it fell outside of that circle, or missed the moon completely on that day.
From the discoverer of the object's trajectory in question:
https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/dscovr.htm#confidence
"...2022 March 4 12:25:58 Universal Time, at latitude +5.18, east longitude 233.55, plus or minus a few seconds and a few kilometers"
The resolution of this bet will be determined by either Project Pluto, if they have sufficient resources to actually confirm their projection, which is not known at the time of authoring this bet, or by NASA JPL or better third party authority which is able to observe and confirm the exact Selenographic Coordinates of the Impact.
Other References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selenographic_coordinate_system
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Time
Feb 16, 6:26am: Edit: I saved the market without being able to revise the title, leaving it at, "Within..." rather than, "within 4 seconds of precision," but the description overall should be sufficient to understand what the bet is about.
Mar 5, 6:45am: Recent comments: https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/dscovr.htm#confirm
Mar 5, 6:45am: https://www.fcc.gov/media/radio/dms-decimal --- converting decimal to min/sec, the equivalent center spot we're looking at appears to be Lat 5° 10' 47.9994" Lon -53° 32' 59.9994"
Mar 5, 6:50am: Adding or subtracting a second in the Lat direction would convert back to: 5.181111 or 5.178889 and in the Lon Direction to: or 53.551111 or 53.548889
Mar 5, 6:58am: Using this Lunar Distance Calculator - https://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/tools/lunardistancecalc/ going from +5.18, -53.55 to +5.181111, -53.55 would be 0.03368924235883317 km ... (not rounding appropriately here, I know) ... but basically the recent comment that the object was, "+/- a few km" would not be equivalent to, "a few seconds," in other words...a few seconds, meaning precisely 4 seconds, would be roughly a hundred times more precise than a few kilometers, meaning 4 kilometers at this coordinate on the moon. That being said, the original bet said, "OR kilometers" ... so if the object does indeed impact within that km range, I'm still going to resolve it yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 192.4196195830872} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1670426611967 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1670426599267 | 0 | 7 | 1650314791897 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535568}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659590679790}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779627617}] | ["science-default", "space", "please-resolve"] | 1670426594031 | 0.8810219816920045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36870787913741554 | KnHW8pHQgS1X2UhZwF73 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.36870787913741554 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-90800-on | 539.7511884375422 | {"NO": 298.9488115624578, "YES": 205.3} | Will TSLA close at or over $908.00 on February 16, 2022? | 1645041600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 301.7, "YES": 205.3} | 0 | 4.70957485510938 | True | play | YES | public | 1645022633185 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $908.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 400.64610877054486, "YES": 306.1871453666775} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645045330317 | 100 | Predictor | 1645022633185 | 0 | 6 | 1715657962635 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425043}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.36870787913741554 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5069432871816968 | JFyn5MEZJQvhStgN9HO0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5069432871816968 | will-the-market-linked-below-resolv | 14 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | Will the market linked below resolve at <50%? | 1645678740000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.224494432347195 | True | play | YES | public | 1645026266018 | Garrett Baker | Feb 16, 10:44am: https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/will-the-market-linked-below-resolv-4154e82188bf
Feb 16, 10:45am: If it resolves at precisely 50%, then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.42686184175343, "YES": 8.5447059926015} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646166488450 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1645026266018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 1715657931911 | 0 | 1 | 0.5069432871816968 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4930567128183032 | 6VvrxKi5X5NQuHbg6Wa0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4930567128183032 | will-the-market-linked-below-resolv-4154e82188bf | 14 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | Will the market linked below resolve at >50%? | 1645678740000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.224494432347195 | True | play | YES | public | 1645026267342 | Garrett Baker | Feb 16, 10:44am: https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/will-the-market-linked-below-resolv
Feb 16, 10:45am: If it resolves at precisely 50%, then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.5447059926015, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646166481593 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1645026267342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 1715657603091 | 0 | 1 | 0.4930567128183032 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.031730759183827104 | t9hfGuDfVlGOQfntLXgQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.031730759183827104 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi | 4424.296502713957 | {"NO": 966.888080865898, "YES": 398.81541642014656} | Will the implied probability of this market be >50%, when averaged over the last 24 hours? | 1645505940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1062, "YES": 175} | 0 | 4.651064465541353 | True | play | NO | public | 1645029994485 | Jenny | I'm taking the average over the last day to try to prevent the strategy used in https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in.
Technical details: I will integrate the implied probability from 2/20 23:59:00 EST to 2/21 23:59:00 EST and divide the result by 24 hours. The market will resolve YES if it's above 50% and NO if it's below 50%.
Feb 21, 12:35am: The final 24 hours started 35 minutes ago! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1343.8624138357554, "YES": 243.2747142365268} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645506123557 | 100 | Jenny | 1645029994485 | 0 | 14 | 1715658802086 | 0 | 1645421974211 | 0.031730759183827104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8081884883770197 | y43CqudFEYuAQ1ARQ0o1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8081884883770197 | will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw | 1077.666840521531 | {"NO": 151.99762701822874, "YES": 432.3355324602403} | Will the Weighted Outcome of the Two Largest Russia-Ukraine Invasion Predictions on Manifold Markets Currently Be Correct? | 1645622340000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 441} | 0 | 4.697155996477962 | True | play | YES | public | 1645030216255 | Patrick Delaney | ***NOTE - this is a weighted index of the two other markets, so what we are betting on here is the ACCURACY of the other markets, not the actual outcome of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.***
The two largest manifold markets on Russia-Ukraine short-term invasion are currently:
A) Invade before end of February
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
B) Invade before end of Olympics
https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t-871866813da9
This is an indexed bet based upon how accurate Manifold Markets will be, based upon a weighted average of these two largest markets.
The formula for resolving the market is as follows:
Volume: The volume of each market in $M.
Volume Weight: (Volume)/(Total Volume) for each market.
Prediction: The prediction percentage of each market.
Weighted Prediction: (Prediction)*(Volume Weight)
As of 16 Feb 2022 morning:
Given today’s current volumes of A) ~40k $M and B) ~20k $M, Total Volume ~ 60k. This number changes as the volume changes.
Current Volume Weights: A) ~0.67, B) ~0.33
Current Predictions: A) ~0.4 B) ~0.3
Therefore the Current Weighted Prediction is 0.37.
Outcomes are defined as the actual outcome which happens in reality.
The following table represents the Outcomes of the prediction accuracy:
Russia Does Not Invade by Either Date
This market resolves to, “YES” assuming the above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” and this was accurate.
Note, if for example case A) goes up significantly in volume and prediction level, its weight could drown out B) and this market could resolve to, “NO” meaning Manifold markets’ weighted accuracy was incorrect, even if B) was still correct.
Russia Does Invade by End of February, But Not by End of Olympics
Market resolves to, “NO” assuming above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” but the Outcome was “YES”
If either A) or B) goes up significantly in volume and prediction simultaneously, this could reverse this market’s outcome, as Manifold Market’s overall weighted accuracy would have reflected what occurs.
Russia Invades by End of Olympics
Market resolves to, “NO” assuming above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” but the Outcome was “YES”
If either A) or B) goes up significantly in volume and prediction simultaneously, this could reverse this market’s outcome, as Manifold Market’s overall weighted accuracy would have reflected what occurs.
4) Outcome Unclear / Weighted Prediction 0.5 exactly
Market resolves to unknown / no outcome.
Market Resolution: After Last Manifold Market Resolution.
Feb 17, 10:18am: For anyone who visits. What's kind of interesting from my perspective having set up this index, and not having thought about this beforehand, is that it acts as a hedge if I were to bet with the consensus on Manifold. So basically, if I were to bet, "NO" on both of the Russia-Ukraine bets right now, I would be betting with the consensus, and if that were the outcome, I would win about $M 66 on a $M 100 bet, and loose $100 if the opposite outcome were true. However having put together this market, as of right now the payout that, "Manifold is NOT Accurate," would be $220 / $100 in the case of a win, meaning the net profit would be $20 if the true outcome were, "NO," and the net profit would be $66 if the true outcome were, "YES." Basically, setting up an accuracy hedge against other large bets and then betting on those bets may be a, "hack" to win no matter what.
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 8:05 pm
Feb 21, 8:04pm: Closing trading now since both other markets are now closed. Will resolve when other markets and actual outcomes resolve.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm
Feb 22, 5:51pm: Reopened trading since trading on Duncan's market reopened.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 7:19 am
Feb 23, 7:23am: I want to calculate the exact amount and think through and read why the other markets were resolved, and am busy today, I will resolve it as soon as possible.
Feb 26, 8:10am: The weighted outcome per the formulas described above was 0.557 ... Analysis:
'“YES” Wins because Manifold Markets, using a weighting of the two largest markets, was accurate in predicting that Russia would invade Ukraine by the end of February, weighted by how much participants voted for that option. In other words, far more people participated in the, "end of February," market, and then that market ended up making a correct prediction that there would be an invasion by the end of February. If the volume for, "End of the Olympics," had overwhelmingly be been higher, perhaps 300,000, this would have pushed the weighted answer to, "NO" because Manifold participants would have felt so mathematically confident about Russia not invading Ukraine not within the general timeframe. Note that the weighted percentage being 0.55 means that in retrospect, Manifold participants were really close to 50/50 on whether Russia would actually invade Ukraine, and the high accuracy could arguably be more of a result of what might be termed, "overtraining," or "gaming the system," essentially waiting until the last minute and changing one's bets, which is not really prediction at all, but rather description of an event that is actually occurring. ...
Feb 26, 11:19am: Therefore, having indexes of bets may be a more accurate way to, in retrospect, describe the collective thinking of a particular set of markets, because there is less incentive to game multiple averaged timeframes focused on the same event toward a conclusion. This may also demonstrate that paying attention to a weighted average of multiple predictions may be a less risky way of predicting an actual outcome (though the outcome will be less specific in timeframe) than paying attention to one particular market. Of course, hindsight is 20-20, and it's likely that the calculated weighted average will not be predictive, but rather also descriptive. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 255.91668962294546, "YES": 525.3123431881666} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645885979679 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645030216255 | 0 | 10 | 1715658930616 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409539}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223509}] | ["sports-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645044216157 | False | 0.8081884883770197 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18414152328959235 | jMlw3dgNUgd5Giwu2qGW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.18414152328959235 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed | 26677.082179920508 | {"NO": 3415.454716864433, "YES": 1329.4631032150583} | Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours? | 1645678740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3615.5, "YES": 869.5} | 0 | 4.625601872803926 | True | play | NO | public | 1645030305026 | Jenny | Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours.
Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%!
Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness.
Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would*
Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time.
Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :(
Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4567.064053859529, "YES": 1286.926780002932} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645505943252 | 100 | Jenny | 1645030305026 | 0 | 29 | 1715658573156 | 0 | 1645505991142 | 0.18414152328959235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08082787180256816 | sT8Zhc7Tg8HWQcwRCpSw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08082787180256816 | will-user-alexlyzhov-solicitation-o | 81 | {"NO": 25.1, "YES": 9.899999999999999} | Will User alexlyzhov Solicitation of $10 Crypto Result in Accusations of Fraud or Be Resolved with No Outcome? | 1645397940000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25.1, "YES": 9.899999999999999} | 0 | 5.494087723523295 | True | play | YES | public | 1645032703194 | Patrick Delaney | https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-manifold-markets-users-send-me
Basically, will there be any kind of fraud accusation on this thread?
Case 1
"Nobody sent me any crypto!"
"Yes I did!"
"No, you didn't."
Case 2
"Hey bro, just sent you $10 in crypto wanted to make sure you got it."
"Nope, I didn't get it! Please try again or someone else can try."
"Dude I totally sent it to you."
Feb 19, 12:17pm: The following comment was left on the bet: S G bought M$ 100 of YES 11 hours ago
This should resolve YES. I see $12 in the Solana wallet right now. https://solscan.io/account/EztYGQvMGy9shzgpWNox9U8zHkHPK5mSgXxo3PFWHyPQ
A+ grift, @alexlyzhov -- the definition of grift is https://www.dictionary.com/browse/grift "a group of methods for obtaining money falsely through the use of swindles, frauds, dishonest gambling, etc." -- so basically, grift is a form of fraud, resolving as YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 33.55667146798085, "YES": 9.950869358503308} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1645294825801 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645032703194 | 0 | 7 | 1715658784805 | 0 | 0.08082787180256816 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45705734382385915 | 6EjxBqlMncRBzH3c04yA | {"NO": 149.37636141360852, "YES": 173.28838661524318} | 0 | will-i-end-up-importing-more-than-5 | 165.31957174314627 | {"NO": 27.978620340548243, "YES": 31.284648565212677} | Will I end up importing more than 50 of my Metaculus questions onto Manifold Markets by the end of 2022? | 1672549200000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 32} | 0 | 1.960367322754955 | True | play | NO | public | 1645039982083 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I end up copying over 50 of my Metaculus questions by the end of 2022, and NO otherwise. My written Metaculus questions can be found here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=author:Matthew_Barnett
At the time of writing, I have written 211 questions on Metaculus, which includes both binary and continuous questions. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 43.86250742517714, "YES": 39.85390835678004} | {"creatorFee": 0.028614057391492906, "platformFee": 0.0071535143478732265, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672981814796 | 160 | MatthewBarnett | 1672327552138 | 0 | 17 | 1650313805018 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1672327551939 | 1647564073929 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03910698576171455 | 8ks2FhelWBtdXXmlmP0f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03910698576171455 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-90250-on | 16247.186571401948 | {"NO": 6278.762530975629, "YES": 1326.0508976224253} | Will TSLA close at or over $902.50 on February 17, 2022? | 1645128000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6576, "YES": 1318} | 0 | 4.621673350198634 | True | play | NO | public | 1645044820884 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $902.50 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7454.630793469845, "YES": 1503.8890339597071} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1645131913771 | 100 | Predictor | 1645044820884 | 0 | 21 | 1715657649679 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424389}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645118528134 | 0.03910698576171455 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.71 | oRJIwwpOTIaUu51cfqzY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.71 | will-this-market-receive-more-than | 2286 | {"NO": 538, "YES": 1748} | Will this market receive more than M$1000 by Feb 18th? | 1645221540000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 538, "YES": 1748} | 0 | 4.636752326524558 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645045448873 | Bob | Resolves to yes if market has more than 1000 invested by the 18th, no if not.
Feb 16, 1:34pm:
I meant to put 10,000 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1238.939900076069, "YES": 1921.1529080217692} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645047333616 | 100 | thadthechad | 1645045448873 | 0 | 11 | 1715658680141 | 0 | 1645047290505 | 0.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1250124996875 | RpYUM7ujRfObZhTfw8Gm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-a10s-retirement-be-signed | 20 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | Will the A-10's retirement be signed into law in 2022? | 1645685940000 | AUi3Xqhti2dSieVVsBMv4tF9Cvv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.336802518963145 | True | play | NO | public | 1645045808911 | Benjamin | The Air Force has attempted to retire their aging A-10 fleet for many years, but Congress keeps blocking their attempts.
This question resolves as Yes if Congress passes a bill by the end of 2020 that allows the Air Force to retire any portion of its A-10 fleet.
Feb 16, 2:12pm: 2022, not 2020. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.70908871377759, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1682630605999 | 100 | marthinwurer | 1680902644622 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhrYjrsvG9qq9nvDNJaCrCL75sPuC-106os1UY_fQ=s96-c | 2 | 1650314593257 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486872}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072251}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1680902641952 | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4443363194566427 | YivJXh7BEDgYC92d6uPP | {"NO": 122.50950952694734, "YES": 134.249131255019} | 1 | will-ukraine-win-eurovision-2022 | 8022.137979153831 | {"NO": 1599.1320106115138, "YES": 1340.7253315730957} | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? | 1652565300000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1654.5, "YES": 1382.5} | 0 | 2.3449277387240954 | True | play | YES | public | 1645050177682 | David Glidden | The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is scheduled to occur between Tuesday, May 10th and Saturday, May 14th. Will Ukraine win?
Mar 1, 7:22pm: If Ukraine does not compete, this market resolves "No". If the contest does not take place, it resolves "N/A". If they tie for 1st, it resolves "Yes". I'll add this to the description too.
Close date updated to 2022-05-14 5:55 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2227.1222435910563, "YES": 1919.0345448204887} | {"creatorFee": 17.88174168821717, "platformFee": 3.226282405355387, "liquidityFee": 14.929836200386854} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1652570676927 | 114.92983620038683 | dglid | 1652565247084 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 55 | 1650314643010 | 0 | 1 | 1652565245582 | 1652531490662 | 0.42187279809388356 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9131168688939827 | YhU8XscOdoe5sslEphmZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9131168688939827 | will-the-manifold-markets-discord-h | 19682.128125039402 | {"NO": 1440.204821553818, "YES": 7981.667053406776} | Will the Manifold Markets Discord have 200 or more members by Tuesday morning? | 1645505940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1411, "YES": 8052} | 0 | 4.620413005808498 | True | play | YES | public | 1645050536217 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if when I check the Manifold Markets Discord at 8:30am Eastern Time on Tuesday, February 22nd, the member count shows as 200 or more. Market closes the night prior.
Feb 21, 12:02pm: for details on exact method of measurement, see here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/938171760237477998/945364762001285163
TLDR: I’ll be looking at the member count on the mobile app
Feb 22, 8:32am: resolved yes. Evidence: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943251318473109524/945674142458449960 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2777.186030500692, "YES": 9003.273083935086} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645536747064 | 100 | dglid | 1645050536217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 47 | 1715658329051 | 0 | 1 | 1645497427146 | 0.9131168688939827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8898403362936738 | nC5xnMjHVrBd5gc4QnaV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8898403362936738 | will-manifold-markets-try-to-stop-u | 749.714019052 | {"NO": 150.0883430681538, "YES": 336.1976378798462} | Will Manifold Markets try to stop users from making extra accounts to shuffle money around by June 2022? | 1646151058377 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 335} | 0 | 4.712895232520932 | True | play | YES | public | 1645051377913 | Sam | Don't act like you haven't thought about it...
Currently, anyone can make multiple MM accounts (as long as they have multiple gmails), then bet on their own questions and resolve it how they see fit, presumably to stack that sweet sweet fake $$$. This doesn't really matter bc... fake money, but still.
Will MM try to curb this behavior by June 1, 2022? This question will resolve as YES if MM has enacted some sort of solution to thwart this behavior, maybe using IP address detection or some other technical fix that I can't fathom because I am technologically illiterate. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 161.06825038112711, "YES": 458.8377126595885} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646151058377 | 100 | sam | 1645051377913 | 0 | 10 | 1715658656774 | 0 | 1646151039836 | 0.8898403362936738 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3005182679642411 | GISZkSXhhodXwIuYUzE6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3005182679642411 | scipapers-generational-inheritance | 2409.5870302258572 | {"NO": 1372.412969774143, "YES": 1016} | SciPapers : Generational inheritance of memory in an animal model. | 1645257540000 | rpPhNvA397UkhNUQsVFMQEKRtyV2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1373, "YES": 1016} | 0 | 4.635834505990109 | True | play | NO | public | 1645051785496 | Robert McIntyre | I'm experimenting with using prediction markets to find interesting new knowledge, or (conversely) to show that some kind of knowledge is difficult to find. Market resolves to YES if we find the knowledge I seek, NO otherwise. Note: I will ONLY consider papers mentioned in the comments as eligible for the purposes of this question!
Still experimenting with the precise format, but here's my first shot.
Summary Description:
I'm looking for a paper that shows convincing evidence that a long-term memory can be inherited across four generations (parent to great-grandchild). That is, a certain animal learns a long-term memory of some kind, and then its great-grandchildren also have that memory even without experiencing the training that their ancestors went through. I want something that in my judgment is a "real" long-term memory (and not a kind of injury), and it want it to persist even if there's no way for the parents to communicate with their offspring.
Examples:
(note, a HIT here means that if you found a paper that shows this example, then it would cause the market to resolve to YES. A NEAR MISS means that if you found a paper with this example it would not, in my judgment, cause the market to resolve to YES, but only because it's missing a SINGLE salient aspect. If it had that aspect, then the market would resolve to YES).
NEAR MISS #1 ("famine"): A hypothetical paper notes that, If you expose a certain animal to famine, then its children will have epigenetic modifications that enable them to better survive famine, and tend more towards males. These changes persist for four generations even if the subsequent generations are not exposed to famine. This is a NEAR MISS because I don't consider it a "real" memory, but rather a type of injury. I consider the "training" in this case to be too limited, in that you can only choose "famine" or "not famine". If instead there were 20 different types of famine you could expose the animal to, and they each caused different changes in behavior, and these changes persisted over several generations in the absence of that famine, then I would instead consider this a HIT.
NEAR MISS #2 ("genetic mods"): A hypothetical paper states that you can modify DNA of an animal as an embryo, and induce a vast amount of heritable mental effects such as being more fearful in general, or avoiding a certain smell, or whatever. Although technically this "training" gets around the "famine" example, I still consider it a NEAR MISS because I feel that directly editing DNA is cheating. I want the memories to be possible to acquire, in principal, through direct sensory experience. If instead the paper showed that if you show the animal a picture that causes it to edit its OWN DNA, and that causes a change in behavior that lasts generations, then this would instead be a HIT.
NEAR MISS #3 ("teaching"): You point out that human children tend to speak the same language as their parents. This is a MISS because the parents are able to communicate with their children and teach them the language. I want a memory that still survives even without a direct line of communication between parent and child. If it was instead generally the case that children could start speaking their great-grandfather's language at age 13, even if up to then they had never heard a word of the language or seen their biological great-grandfather, then this example would be a HIT.
NEAR MISS #4 ("generational depth"): This paper: "Parental olfactory experience influences behavior and neural structure in subsequent generations", https://www.nature.com/articles/nn.3594 is close, but only shows learning from parents to grandchildren, not parents to great-grandchildren.
NEAR MISS #5 ("not behavioral"): This paper, "Transgenerational transmission of environmental information in C. elegans", https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aah6412 , shows that you can make transgenic worms that have two "glowy" states, "dim" and "bright", and that you can make them switch from "dim" to "bright" by changing the temperature, and that this change will last over 14 generations. I don't consider this a "hit" because the behavior of the worms doesn't change depending on whether they are "dim" or "bright". Also, it additionally fails as in the "famine" case, because "dim" and "bright" are the only two options. If instead there were 20 different "brightness" options and they each led to different behaviors, then this would be a HIT.
HIT #1: You find a paper with the following: Researchers trained three successive generations of rats to associate a particular room with foot shocks. Then the researchers separated the next litter of rats from their parents and for two generations did not train with foot shocks. Then the third generation of rats still exhibited freezing (a fear response) when placed in the same room their great-grandparents were in.
HIT #2: You find a paper w/ the following: Researchers trained mice to solve a certain maze. Then they raised three generations of those mice without any maze training. Nevertheless, the great-grandchildren of the maze-trained mice were able to solve the same maze much faster than control mice.
HIT #3: A crow learns, with some effort, how to eat a certain nut efficiently. It's eggs are raised by a different naive crow, and the resulting children and their children never see that nut in their lives. Nevertheless, the third generation of crows are able to eat the nut with similar skill as their great grandparent, without any initial effort to learn how to eat the nut.
HIT #4: Same as HIT #3 but the crow learns that eating the nut makes it sick and will avoid nuts that look like it from then on. It's great grandchildren still avoid the nut the first time they see it even if they've never before experienced the nut, and even though naive crows DO attempt to eat the nut.
----------------------------------------------------
How this Market Works:
1. If you know of a paper that meets my criteria, bet what you will and reference the paper in the comments. I'll check it out and include it in my market decision. You would presumably buy YES along with listing the paper.
2. If you think a paper that's already been listed clearly meets my criteria, you can do your own analysis of that paper and make your case in the comments along with buying YES. This helps me judge the paper and provide a fairer and faster market.
3. Even if you don't have a paper you can of course buy YES/NO based on whether or not you think the paper both EXISTS and that the community can FIND it in the allotted time.
4. If you have a paper that clearly shows that this type of thing is impossible, link that along with presumably buying NO.
Note: this is the first such question and I'm using it to calibrate and as a test. Full disclosure: for this market I already know a paper that DOES meet my criteria. If at the end of this market, no one has found a suitable paper, I promise not to swoop in and link to the paper that I already know would win. Of course, if anyone finds the exact paper I'm thinking of they will automatically win. It's my hope that you guys find something NEW that I don't know about. If no one finds anything worthwhile then I will have to resolve NO. Note again, I will ONLY CONSIDER PAPERS MENTIONED IN THE COMMENTS WHEN DECIDING THE RESOLUTION OF THIS MARKET. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1997.5506083882167, "YES": 1309.3177070291792} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645263849384 | 100 | RLMgold | 1645051785496 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1zo00WvcSPmsrxKW9c-ekFTEYJFpwd1r7TrV=s96-c | 10 | 1715657860918 | 0 | 1 | 1645243698523 | 0.3005182679642411 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27477857920396725 | 0Yjp2g6bQ3HK9ouX7q2w | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.27477857920396725 | will-manifold-markets-let-users-com | 158.4355393090061 | {"NO": 83.88029570102255, "YES": 35.68416498997138} | Will Manifold Markets let users comment on resolved markets by March 1, 2022? | 1645689540000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 32} | 0 | 4.963266842855882 | True | play | NO | public | 1645053541213 | Luna Nova | This market resolves to YES if users can comment on Resolved Markets by 11:59 PM on February 28th, GMT -8 (Pacific Standard Time).
Mar 8, 10:54am: Forgot about this, lol. Anyway, I don't seem to be able to comment on any resolved market, so this resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.82186635175158, "YES": 62.67540923596471} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646765727670 | 100 | LunaNova | 1645053541213 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 10 | 1715656871767 | 0 | 1 | 0.27477857920396725 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9878583268402427 | v7x4KOIKD8D7lXkRNX9T | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9878583268402427 | will-masks-still-be-required-on-ord | 1578.436053782907 | {"NO": 142.2281435182847, "YES": 1053.335802698808} | Will masks still be required on ordinary passenger domestic flights in the United States on March 20th 2022? | 1647748800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 1070} | 0 | 4.656074102706667 | True | play | YES | public | 1645054219483 | Matthew Barnett | On August 20th 2021, the TSA announced that it would extend the mask mandate on airplanes until March 18th 2022. This deadline could, of course, be extended again.
Mask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplanes, either due to the carrier (airplane operator) or due to government mandates.
This question will resolve NO if government mask mandates are removed for ordinary airplane passengers (not e.g. airplane staff) on domestic flights in the United States before March 20th, and at least 3 large carriers have no mask mandates on March 20th 2022. Mandates must be removed for all travelers regardless of prior disease history and vaccination status. Any mandate requiring passengers to wear face masks will prevent this question from resolving as YES; that is, the mandate may be justified for any reason, not only to prevent the transmission of COVID-19.
Feb 16, 6:42pm: *Any mandate will prevent this question from resolving as NO, not YES, as I had written. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 131.73841746733126, "YES": 1188.284700728863} | {"creatorFee": 5.022557848683708, "platformFee": 1.255639462170927, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648090134622 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645054219483 | 0 | 26 | 1715658842642 | 0 | 1 | 1646949324112 | 0.9878583268402427 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0459625896474036 | yWZ0mwymZY5k7x4USDu7 | {"NO": 247.04456999544516, "YES": 2872.605759013496} | 0 | will-alexei-navalny-ever-be-the-pre | 3365.886173656338 | {"NO": 276.93388640173873, "YES": 54.99009809468237} | Will Alexei Navalny ever be the President of Russia? | 1708144857678 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 280, "YES": 55} | 0 | 7.2018300263725115 | True | play | NO | public | 1645055621327 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves in a yes if Navalny becomes the President of Russia before 1.1.2050. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 320.1339185898595, "YES": 87.68391814495195} | {"creatorFee": 0.07733912400841544, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1708144857678 | 280 | Keepcalmandchill | 1708144858181 | 0 | 31 | 1650315041971 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662322051765}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513407}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662322055158}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224585}] | ["politics-default", "world-default", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1708118230741 | 1708122292128 | False | 0 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47223439141747997 | j5aRM9x8VVpAaCFskUp4 | {"NO": 22.211488099983995, "YES": 634.9367222512938} | 0 | will-richard-hanania-be-on-the-joe | 2423.452643715864 | {"NO": 238, "YES": 521} | Will Richard Hanania be on the Joe Rogan Experience in 2022? | 1672559940000 | fOP9OVWrlXSpFMsoODOhF7qoG3W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 238, "YES": 521} | 0 | 3.8879277073597605 | True | play | NO | public | 1645056508354 | Richard Hanania | This market will resolve yes if Richard Hanania is a guest on the Joe Rogan Experience in an episode that is released in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 539.7031369192697, "YES": 533.6694126521586} | {"creatorFee": 10.192221235614605, "platformFee": 0.7251785690580803, "liquidityFee": 4.351071414348482} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672664816072 | 104.35107141434848 | RichardHanania | 1670781181051 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz9nqp46fl8Vrar15-73pvpcOmp8585PuUdEodH=s96-c | 21 | 1650314726040 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1670781180768 | 1646732280552 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1301625734664129 | F1U3AlDpiOfUtic0TMfG | {"NO": 100.87859558584769, "YES": 1024.0480895426235} | 0 | will-bosniaherzegovina-fall-apart-d | 1812.1227455171486 | {"NO": 676.4531257331937, "YES": 235} | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina fall apart during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 675, "YES": 235} | 0 | 5.39882825318727 | True | play | NO | public | 1645058146067 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves in "YES" if, two weeks after closing, Bosnia-Herzegovina can be said to have fallen apart (i.e. into smaller countries) during 2022. Otherwise, it resolves in "NO". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 826.3595029111789, "YES": 384.54986057005624} | {"creatorFee": 0.3456569043695489, "platformFee": 0.050402568039164035, "liquidityFee": 0.3024154082349842} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672537938534 | 140.302415408235 | Keepcalmandchill | 1671797935888 | 0 | 29 | 1650313865800 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478652}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929569}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 1671797935771 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09491213046177097 | NHbcTUHgF3IIrwIohQ9j | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09491213046177097 | will-the-closing-price-of-brent-cru | 341.791372705988 | {"NO": 132, "YES": 36.208627294011976} | Will the closing price of Brent Crude oil for February 17th be at or above $93? | 1645142340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 132, "YES": 36} | 0 | 4.874686408640143 | True | play | NO | public | 1645067645883 | David Glidden | Russia's threatening posture toward Ukraine has dominated oil markets for several weeks, with concerns that supply disruptions from the major producer in a tight global market could push oil prices to $100 a barrel. More here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-hold-steady-russia-ukraine-tensions-cool-2022-02-16/
This market resolves YES if the closing price for Brent Crude oil for 17/02/2022 according to http://www.livecharts.co.uk/futures_commodities/brent_oil_prices_historical.php is equal to or greater than 93.00.
Feb 18, 6:59am: Resolved NO at 92.97 😱 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 160.02808959461584, "YES": 51.82170640849281} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645185556246 | 100 | dglid | 1645067645883 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 1715658041032 | 0 | 1 | 1645129127254 | 0.09491213046177097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022653778662876527 | qeC6sq2MXnMlpgo6nRqd | {"NO": 96.2552614144098, "YES": 613.8418058363018} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-announced-before-may-1 | 1540.150816570058 | {"NO": 1020.3797665961964, "YES": 120.46568211220574} | Will GPT-4 be announced before May 1st 2022? | 1651377600000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1020, "YES": 88} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645067699571 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before May 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1127.8476228230409, "YES": 171.7275726928815} | {"creatorFee": 0.17387850516418707, "platformFee": 0.028979750860697845, "liquidityFee": 0.17387850516418707} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1651633282434 | 100.15862927979818 | MatthewBarnett | 1645067699571 | 0 | 31 | 1650314772301 | 0 | 1 | 0.003621467495989402 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | M9pyoEKJ51f4q4X6AFsw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | will-gonzaga-win-the-2022-ncaa-marc | 50 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | Will Gonzaga win the 2022 NCAA March Madness tournament? | 1649120400000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645068660152 | David Glidden | This market resolves to YES if Gonzaga wins the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball March Madness tournament scheduled to take place between March 15th and April 4th, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 46.09864424091016, "YES": 19.365304029371703} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645154162856 | 100 | dglid | 1645068660152 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 1715658001391 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400805}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | DaUuFGgM1cKuBz6OCdMQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-a-machine-learning-model-score | 200 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025? | 1645678740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.8377641951088215 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645071463661 | Matthew Barnett | From Hendrycks et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. [...]
> Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.
In addition,
> It's also worth mentioning the competition maths problems in MATH are designed under the assumption that competitors don't use calculators or script executors. That way, solving them requires making a clever observation or reducing the search space to make the problem tractable. With a script executor, competitors do not need to figure out how to succinctly reason to the conclusion and cleverness is rarely needed.
> There are other competition problems designed to be difficult even with calculators and script executors, but there are not nearly as many of these problems lying around.
The best model in the paper only received an average accuracy of 6.9% on the dataset.
This question resolves to YES if the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the MATH dataset, as reported prior to January 1st 2025 Eastern Time, is above 50.0%. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count. Only results that use a no-calculator restriction will count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.42206334409067, "YES": 141.4220633440907} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645071632754 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645071463661 | 0 | 1 | 1715657788950 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 |
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