p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.04622784621040684 | zmGmKVipXAuatZPbsu06 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04622784621040684 | will-boris-johnsons-approval-rating | 104 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 5} | Will Boris Johnson's approval rating be above 50% according to Politico on 1 April 2022? | 1648853940000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.0061244449129525 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644888679383 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if Boris Johnson's approval rating is above 50% on 1 April 2022.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#98099 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.56868612397228, "YES": 22.360903381795648} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1644958689346 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644888679383 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 3 | 1715658977929 | 0 | 1644894313993 | 0.04622784621040684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4289525545535394 | gpSiTuJXEgeK43xaApHC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4289525545535394 | will-the-pool-size-for-this-bet-be | 1151 | {"NO": 604, "YES": 521} | Will the pool size for this bet be evenly divisible by 2? | 1646121540000 | EPAyVDOLBXZ9iv4jWdUgnvpFssA2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 604, "YES": 521} | 0 | 4.658586686682456 | True | play | NO | public | 1644888719784 | David Bloomin | Resolves at the end of February
Feb 14, 5:36pm: Once this market closes, on Feb 28, I will resolve it as "YES" if and only if the total pool size is evenly divisible by 2. Otherwise, I'll resolve as "NO" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 850.1371701087419, "YES": 736.8134377171062} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646124503609 | 100 | DavidBloomin | 1644888719784 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghbg9aFtUtC_sdY96nZYKM_t2BGPjSZXTWFczFoqA=s96-c | 11 | 1715658531385 | 0 | 1 | 0.4289525545535394 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | q7p7LwtFyGSV5LbFbbHL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | will-the-house-of-commons-vote-on-a | 100 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 25} | Will the House of Commons vote on an explicit confidence motion before 1 June 2022? | 1654037940000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 25} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644889269523 | Giovanni | This market will resolve to YES if the House of Commons will vote on either an explicit motions initiated by the Government, or an explicit motions initiated by the Opposition before 1 June 2022. Motions that can be regarded as issues of confidence because of particular circumstances cannot be adequately judged for the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 86.60340640384766, "YES": 50.0005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1644964258191 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644889269523 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 1 | 1715658727012 | 0 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | mOI9o3KsMcHQHwBv6p8s | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-the-1922-committee-vote-on-a-m | 107 | {"NO": 96.3, "YES": 10.700000000000001} | Will the 1922 Committee vote on a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister before 5 May 2022? | 1651705140000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 96.3, "YES": 10.700000000000001} | 0 | 4.997052174443108 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644889701792 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if the 1922 Committee votes on a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister before 5 May 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.51006157470303, "YES": 33.83668719156768} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1644961039088 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644889701792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 1 | 1715658641707 | 0 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12000079999600002 | Bfwa1B2rdktsVEEfeG0d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.12000079999600002 | will-the-democratic-unionist-party | 150 | {"NO": 123, "YES": 27} | Will the Democratic Unionist Party be the largest party in Stormont following the 5 May 2022 election? | 1651705140000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 123, "YES": 27} | 0 | 4.90197002242149 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644891146281 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are the biggest party elected to the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly, which will be held on 5 May 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 140.71334691751883, "YES": 51.962043842308596} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1645529300530 | 100 | Giovanni | 1644891146281 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 2 | 1715657735044 | 0 | 0.12000079999600002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7749775005625 | utbbl5W7YwSD3gwDTWRX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7749775005625 | test-market-please-ignore | 20 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 11} | Test Market Please Ignore | 1644998340000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 11} | 0 | 5.8502737455136105 | True | play | NO | public | 1644891708589 | Jacob | This resolves however I like. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.487781663803188, "YES": 17.607441611432368} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1644892077862 | 100 | JiSK | 1644891708589 | 0 | 1 | 1715658840902 | 0 | 0.7749775005625 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7699999999999999 | ksCKIrVabvRO42UKb0vP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7699999999999999 | test-market-please-also-ignore | 20 | {"NO": 4.6, "YES": 15.4} | Test Market Please Also Ignore | 1644998340000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4.6, "YES": 15.4} | 0 | 5.8502737455136105 | True | play | YES | public | 1644891915541 | Jacob | This resolves however I like. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.592142629777772, "YES": 17.550806271222985} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004795831523312719, "YES": 0.0008774964387392122} | 0 | 1644892082404 | 100 | JiSK | 1644891915541 | 0 | 1 | 1715658605725 | 0 | 0.7699999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6351177666138846 | wKYbef6Lkm9QHWAkZG6D | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6351177666138846 | will-my-cat-still-be-sitting-on-my | 54 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 36} | Will my cat still be sitting on my lap in an hour? | 1644896100000 | r1GBMgrZifPSeju86daHiST0d9m2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 18, "YES": 36} | 0 | 5.266098107453612 | True | play | YES | public | 1644892524878 | Kevin Zielnicki | My cat Emmy is currently sitting on my lap. She tends to spend a lot of time sitting on my lap, so I expect she'll probably stay. But she is a cat and hence can be fickle. I'm working on my computer and don't plan to get up for the next hour. This will resolve to Yes if she is still on my lap at time of close in 1 hour... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.61956468440375, "YES": 43.03570611480657} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1644896165069 | 100 | kjz | 1644892524878 | 0 | 6 | 1715658875667 | 0 | 1644894160915 | 0.6351177666138846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8076566839193344 | zTamC8ISCgrHuqlco6TR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8076566839193344 | will-i-make-another-market-before-f | 145 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 108} | Will I make another market before February 19? | 1645246800000 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.91050305190295 | True | play | YES | public | 1644894070436 | Juan Gil | This market resolves to "YES" if I have made another market on Manifold Markets using this account before midnight ET on February 19. (in other words, at the end of Feb 18)
I want to make more markets, especially to use in EA community building, but I'm also busy and a bit lazy. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.59303421248274, "YES": 130.31199484563956} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1644965074133 | 100 | juan | 1644894070436 | 0 | 10 | 1715658973922 | 0 | 0.8076566839193344 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3486594435777987 | EEfhRaLTUjubwIc2CO2Y | {"NO": 455.2712183795744, "YES": 916.7930326707847} | 1 | a-market-on-manifold-markets-will-b | 32792.51987726945 | {"NO": 1135.1703583382864, "YES": 1121.702746323941} | A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022 | 1668050852850 | 8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 603.5, "YES": 1537.5} | 0 | 0.7284498426245917 | True | play | YES | public | 1644894150830 | Elena | This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1260.8498203470774, "YES": 1871.8275708049805} | {"creatorFee": 105.8098994444353, "platformFee": 3.4222388565785464, "liquidityFee": 18.8190827074793} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1668050852850 | 597.693714257616 | Elena | 1669144871935 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c | 0 | 164 | 1650313860154 | 0 | 152 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1... | ["internet", "predictions-on-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1668050819198 | 1669144871018 | 0.14999393456455126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.062294306760037735 | CubfXLx0fRPPhCRWDBnM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.062294306760037735 | will-the-2022-baseball-season-be-sh | 1430.6127108440844 | {"NO": 572, "YES": 309.3872891559156} | Will the 2022 baseball season be shortened by the MLB lockout? | 1646961392257 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 572, "YES": 173} | 0 | 4.670268071222809 | True | play | NO | public | 1644895805341 | CompmanJX3 | This resolves to "YES" if regular season games are cancelled due to the ongoing MLB lockout or related labor strife (e.g. the players go on strike). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 853.4941568780179, "YES": 219.98418224107206} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646961392257 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1644895805341 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 8 | 1715657773130 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398345}] | ["sports-default"] | 1646945031148 | 0.062294306760037735 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6623662063854359 | rJMULJrna3ja0Pln9BGX | {"NO": 1913.0709240069555, "YES": 53.999870885810026} | 1 | will-there-be-cheese-made-with-case | 3060.4625958741344 | {"NO": 29.500000000000004, "YES": 20.5} | Will there be cheese made with casein or whey produced by precision fermentation comercially available somewhere in the world by end of 2023? | 1680018930063 | UeFNXhRnguf9LIbrNXM1s2ypxQu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 29.500000000000004, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 3.1807897981487856 | True | play | YES | public | 1644898754662 | Emily Soice | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*PRECISION fermentation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 22, 10:24pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be cheese made with casein or whey produced by prevision fermentation comercially available somewhere... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 38.40649685391783, "YES": 32.01626149958798} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849} | 0 | 1680018930063 | 220 | Emily | 1680018953960 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjo2DJZBwg1klUhOgkq4tAs72KKJojG2gmn1Plt=s96-c | 9 | 1650314777321 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454608}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1666028643396}] | ["technology-default", "cellular-agriculture"] | 1680018606785 | 1680018948845 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9333895060356443 | hB3GKOrNTnU2VwpxzLwg | {"NO": 27.179842041646328, "YES": 110.91534306291999} | 0.7744600585118556 | will-5-members-of-the-cp-be-able-to | 1361 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 1025} | Will 5 Members of the CP be able to Bench 250lbs IRM by May 1st? | 1651463940000 | u0UECH7v0pQf2va17D7LVpHZf8h2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 1025} | 0 | 8.180224037148147 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644899209579 | Josh Purtell | This market resolves 'YES' if 4 members provide proof before 11:59, May 1st
Feb 14, 11:26pm: *5 members
Feb 14, 11:31pm:
Feb 14, 11:35pm: Only trade so far is NO so from here on out, the bet will resolve if SEVEN members provide proof before 11:59, May 1st | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 346.41109970777495, "YES": 1304.7996206315552} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1701231733728 | 100.50794162248005 | JoshPurtell | 1701231731117 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiglyoV5_ByS4t4PVjnxZzcS2-Cz727SLjg7xRoYw=s96-c | 5 | 1650314713461 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779964855}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1701231730518 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48504915481449745 | E1yRwbFrdKsH20TnlM65 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.48504915481449745 | before-i-created-this-market-i-flip | 266.00000000000006 | {"NO": 142.99999999999994, "YES": 121} | Before I created this market I flipped a coin, did it come up heads? | 1645138740000 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 143, "YES": 121} | 0 | 4.7882627406173945 | True | play | NO | public | 1644909235305 | Emanuel Rylke | md5 of the result: c2e8c513d8983a4c5f6fee5fe55698f8
Feb 18, 7:03am: Input to the md5 is "it came up tails\n" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 189.4473172167133, "YES": 183.86473832790776} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007810249675906654, "YES": 0.0006244997998398398} | 0 | 1645164334162 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1644909235305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 18 | 1715657803361 | 0 | 1 | 1645137828724 | 0.48504915481449745 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012620237975894857 | qQqeOFy5pj2EBbWq21U4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.012620237975894857 | will-total-war-warhammer-iii-have-8 | 1161.5226257305103 | {"NO": 1058.3283159698512, "YES": 54.14905829963857} | Will Total War: Warhammer III have 80% or higher positive review score on Steam from customer reviews on March 1st? | 1646121600000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1062.5, "YES": 50.5} | 0 | 4.659065153445328 | True | play | NO | public | 1644910654798 | SneakySly | As measured from the Steam "All Reviews" that looks at all user reviews across time, will Total War: WARHAMMER III (https://store.steampowered.com/app/1142710/Total_War_WARHAMMER_III/) have a user review score of 80% or higher at 12am PST on March 1st 2022 . | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1105.4362143765607, "YES": 124.97563427366607} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646121752282 | 100 | SneakySly | 1644910654798 | 0 | 7 | 1715658735700 | 0 | 1645852900825 | 0.012620237975894857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9802220212284531 | xZuKa7QR645acvhGQDXF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9802220212284531 | will-nasa-reach-30-million-twitter | 209.26404975050121 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 179.73595024949879} | Will @NASA reach 30 Million Twitter followers by March 1st | 1645430340000 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 180} | 0 | 4.843131453503138 | True | play | YES | public | 1644913990535 | April | Market resolves to YES if https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nasa lists a number higher than 30 million followers on 2/28 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.38667559781581, "YES": 192.80158140475862} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645112975991 | 100 | April | 1644913990535 | 0 | 7 | 1715658919650 | 0 | 1644915311844 | 0.9802220212284531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6562252693303888 | ITKszW1ozwCITrsnAvnE | {"NO": 931.5198500998289, "YES": 1025.803245890396} | 0.6341596727536015 | will-there-be-a-mobile-consumer-rob | 707.0910048156675 | {"NO": 150.00000000000003, "YES": 490} | Will there be a mobile consumer robot with an arm by 31st December 2024? | 1735660740000 | dGEpxl4W37Xi6faaVfSXGvRvGGj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150.00000000000003, "YES": 490} | 0 | 9.589305515683618 | False | basic | public | 1644923564377 | Jason de Lange | If you can place an order for a mobile robot that includes a robotic arm by the end of 2024 then this market resolves to Yes. This does not include crowdfunded robots with a promise on delivery at some unspecified date. | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 273.8618264751405, "YES": 578.4470416561053} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1000 | JasondeLange | 1711207193220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHvZsxp5YdEBGlkODI81dQXAWkyoUtX3cdXpsFUw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313888152 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446502}] | ["technology-default"] | 1711207189614 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6387716065214663 | Kg8gQyafGRNBGL68YNPj | {"NO": 757.0626611323148, "YES": 44.86944573728357} | 1 | will-the-alp-win-the-2022-australia | 1220.8805304132575 | {"NO": 131.22827958769437, "YES": 278.2257517322276} | Will the ALP win the 2022 Australian Federal Election? | 1653142634269 | pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 281} | 0 | 3.438919176039279 | True | play | YES | public | 1644923626754 | Watt | This market resolves to “YES” if after the 2022 Federal election in Australia the elected Australian PM is a member of the Labor Party. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 248.8419942805026, "YES": 325.1631660500626} | {"creatorFee": 12.8511862590399, "platformFee": 2.1924231557844593, "liquidityFee": 12.244480907706189} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1653142634269 | 112.24448090770618 | YairNeumann | 1653132056330 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c | 10 | 1650314537181 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481901}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112331}] | ["politics-default", "australia"] | 1653132054989 | 0.9675706791749079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45110905338967894 | jyt2YxDVJjz3rrwbCcHD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-there-be-a-female-fields-medal | 218 | {"NO": 103.99999999999999, "YES": 84} | Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022? | 1649109540000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 104, "YES": 84} | 0 | 2.799354183593326 | True | play | YES | public | 1644923870678 | jskf | Imported from Metaculus:
"The Fields Medal is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians. In 2014, the late Maryam Mirzakhani became the first female Fields Medalist. Maryna Viazovska is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Me... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.28462944826327, "YES": 126.27021818489109} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007348469228349535, "YES": 0.0006782329983125268} | 0 | 1657141304992 | 100 | jskf | 1644923870678 | 0 | 7 | 1650314730946 | 0 | 1 | 0.45110905338967894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04031130491858334 | hMjMtEjfQ0TUoTd4ivrS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04031130491858334 | will-there-be-a-pi-variant-of-covid | 2511.8062180982733 | {"NO": 1692.6655187713134, "YES": 241.52826313041328} | Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? | 1646780340000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1721, "YES": 174} | 0 | 4.640636078302755 | True | play | NO | public | 1644924398191 | jskf | Imported from Metaculus:
"In honor of the mathematical constant that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.
Pi is also the Greek letter coming ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1894.8088163158682, "YES": 388.3413497781664} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1647364481342 | 100 | jskf | 1644924398191 | 0 | 43 | 1715658544831 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}] | ["medicine"] | 1645359861212 | 0.04031130491858334 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.044444740739259275 | lAanhJLVQvYscguHPhT0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.044444740739259275 | will-this-market-have-a-larger-pool | 150 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 10} | Will this market have a larger pool than "Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?" at any time before it resolves? | 1647471540000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.90197002242149 | True | play | NO | public | 1644926840034 | jskf | This market resolves to yes if at any point it has a larger pool than the following one (and that one has not yet resolved): https://manifold.markets/sam/will-this-question-set-the-record-f | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.6297377781874, "YES": 31.623092829449813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645089763944 | 100 | jskf | 1644926840034 | 0 | 3 | 1715658613945 | 0 | 0.044444740739259275 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3464054494757713 | ECzvWwUbFTQrSCtqtPj6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3464054494757713 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-91800-on | 438 | {"NO": 257.75, "YES": 180.25} | Will TSLA close at or over $918.00 on February 14, 2022? | 1644955200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 257.75, "YES": 180.25} | 0 | 4.72309994309356 | True | play | YES | public | 1644932468910 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $918.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 354.10276121522975, "YES": 257.790827029881} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1644958861319 | 100 | Predictor | 1644932468910 | 0 | 10 | 1715657811587 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424472}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1644940770351 | 0.3464054494757713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9528523446888744 | P5zglEc5fjioLfNvCRhb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9528523446888744 | who-is-a-good-boygirl-is-it-you-is | 556 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 511} | Who is a good boy/girl? Is it you? Is it you? | 1645257540000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 511} | 0 | 4.701157926369444 | True | play | YES | public | 1644932608206 | Em ✨ | Who among us can truly be said to be good? What is goodness? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 120.72733741990666, "YES": 542.7356833676038} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645253525336 | 100 | hamnox | 1644932608206 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 17 | 1715658099824 | 0 | 1644990122479 | 0.9528523446888744 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.036562912436621464 | wII74RKZxFV3syUZXYkC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.036562912436621464 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-tomorrow | 6377.181717428725 | {"NO": 5836.458548142925, "YES": 378.3597344283496} | Will Russia invade Ukraine tomorrow; 16-02-2022? | 1645036140000 | DzO5shYhVmSfVw5zID4IC85Rxzk1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5840.1, "YES": 368.9} | 0 | 4.623132970248396 | True | play | NO | public | 1644932743294 | Vinay Kumar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6100.145372309461, "YES": 1188.3623823191297} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1645204650799 | 100 | VinayKumar | 1644932743294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjk0ZMQoNpHDZVpUTtej3B-MapHrmjCU1kY5aS7HQ=s96-c | 49 | 1715658873919 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511615}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227067}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1644964938960 | False | 0.036562912436621464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49285563674363997 | a2w1ZSz5tLQAm1B2bRYY | {"NO": 59.746723731441136, "YES": 173.25455306786992} | 0 | matthew-gets-a-crossword-accepted-t | 217.89791566182745 | {"NO": 55.102084338172546, "YES": 48} | Matthew gets a crossword accepted to the NYT before July 1st, 2022. | 1656712740000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 48} | 0 | 2.8939091746788934 | True | play | NO | public | 1644932848507 | Matthew | This resolves Yes if a crossword is accepted by the NYT editors. It doesn't have to be published before this date. July 1st was chosen since a year is a long time to lock up any funny money.
For external info: I will consistently have 3 crosswords in their queue from now until the foreseeable future. The NYT got back ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 73.39418279037217, "YES": 72.41229130871193} | {"creatorFee": 2.164755029300086, "platformFee": 0.084601843955432, "liquidityFee": 0.485404328089672} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1667580160264 | 100.48540432808967 | Matthew | 1656708010733 | 0 | 11 | 1650314653997 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662037648095}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1656708009236 | 0.2510111080016717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.91471440468928 | UOzJ9NT9g1HmcV5TYYui | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | matthew-travels-to-a-wedding-in-col | 157.6197957231294 | {"NO": 32.3802042768706, "YES": 48} | Matthew travels to a wedding in Colorado in April | 1650578340000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21, "YES": 48} | 0 | 8.423685569304403 | True | play | YES | public | 1644933146705 | Matthew | This one is pretty self explanatory. Long-time friend is getting married in CO in April. Would be a stretch to go visit, financially, plus it takes away from a chunk of vacation time. That being said, long-time friend. Resolves Yes if Matthew flies into CO on or before April 21st, 2022.
External info: Can't help you m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.474283818681243, "YES": 76.87714875175847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1655445158977 | 100 | Matthew | 1644933146705 | 0 | 3 | 1650314609682 | 0 | 1 | 1646414318090 | 0.9147144046892799 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | tbgAmmMA7sBCc4J2jQVu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | matthew-records-a-10k-in-less-than | 25 | {"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75} | Matthew records a 10k in less than an hour in 2022. | 1645570740000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75} | 0 | 5.700548750959896 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644933629025 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 10k segment is less than 60 minutes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.590393550547223, "YES": 24.367960541456892} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1644946121086 | 100 | Matthew | 1644933629025 | 0 | 1 | 1715658816432 | 0 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01940265010573785 | 2vSLA8ADwADXJckY599u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01940265010573785 | will-russia-invade-moldova-in-febru | 1012.1954605711744 | {"NO": 614.8045394288256, "YES": 23} | Will Russia invade Moldova in February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 617, "YES": 23} | 0 | 4.690536283565363 | True | play | NO | public | 1644935721804 | Alex | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 631.587672057557, "YES": 88.84209942933141} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646148495847 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644935721804 | 0 | 12 | 1715656932374 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468070}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226398}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.01940265010573785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010004396880999992 | 3kOig2AjARgHbKORhcHN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010004396880999992 | will-queen-elizabeth-die-in-februar | 15190.130579531862 | {"NO": 8112.60473333032, "YES": 287.26468713782106} | Will Queen Elizabeth die in February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8137, "YES": 281} | 0 | 4.621054991439559 | True | play | NO | public | 1644936859368 | Alex | UK time | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8357.746982021969, "YES": 840.1716879056685} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1646148465185 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644936859368 | 0 | 83 | 1715656948310 | 0 | 1 | 1645497856888 | 0.010004396880999992 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7000000000000002 | Ntrxu7Z7qrBPH7fdmhX2 | {"NO": 126.36959733411662, "YES": 90.45631364206989} | 0.77 | what-will-jordan-peeles-nope-rotten | 37 | {"NO": 3.0000000000000004, "YES": 7} | What will Jordan Peele's Nope Rotten Tomatoes audience score be one month after release? | 1660447488361 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.0000000000000004, "YES": 7} | 0 | 3.314650092739819 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644937981601 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.477773297609165, "YES": 8.36743692536729} | {"creatorFee": 0.6304026658833811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1660447488361 | 100 | p_journal | 1660447478994 | 0 | 1 | 1650314560206 | 0 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860947437}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | 1660447475729 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32002953506805937 | uOWkEm1TFrXj4MZqkW9s | {"NO": 104.51935024781359, "YES": 91.47976337109695} | 0.34969465992154164 | what-will-the-metacritic-metascore | 32.175317725798095 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | What will the Metacritic Metascore be for Morbius one month after its US release? | 1651420740000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | 0 | 3.183907082747104 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644938518950 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 20.6162557342501, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0.0778958304513511, "platformFee": 0.012982638408558516, "liquidityFee": 0.0778958304513511} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652411762970 | 100.07789583045135 | p_journal | 1644938518950 | 0 | 3 | 1650314794430 | 0 | 1 | 1651412137932 | 0.34969465992154164 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | JK2zFhmUb8BvuhFTvZQV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8 | will-russia-recognize-the-independe | 100 | {"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80} | Will Russia recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic by the end of February 2022? | 1646089200000 | HGJcDBTNEuaIvPj6CvV02T79i392 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644938637109 | Alex | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 44.7218067635913, "YES": 89.44361352718259} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1644950957699 | 100 | Alex282929 | 1644938637109 | 0 | 1 | 1715657933174 | 0 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44826490758446846 | VAZPDee0P8W0MSsaUCw4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44826490758446846 | what-will-the-metacritic-metascore-cb7d2d28b5f9 | 110 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 52} | What will the Metacritic Metascore be for Uncharted one month after its US release? | 1647705540000 | tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 52} | 0 | 4.9883961192309005 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644938696693 | p_journal | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.70750271853865, "YES": 73.64851662117849} | {"creatorFee": 0.2199343293433282, "platformFee": 0.05498358233583205, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647745091763 | 100 | p_journal | 1644938696693 | 0 | 3 | 1715658240418 | 0 | 1 | 1646751633868 | 0.44826490758446846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | WYRYxSqS44fSViga4RB2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-bluterra-successfully-raise-mo | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will Bluterra successfully raise money in 2022? | 1649260861738 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644939700842 | Ian Philips | We're running a pilot project with the city of Naples, FL in March and have potential for other pilots with The Recycling Partnership and other municipalities.
tech website: bluterra.io
operations division: clementinecurbside.com | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649260861738 | 100 | ian | 1644939700842 | 0 | 1 | 1715658268181 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6103316883938547 | bGA5IBMZ5woPVrPwWQmj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6103316883938547 | will-manifold-create-a-smartphone-a | 139.65639379273225 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 66.34360620726775} | Will Manifold create a smartphone app before the end of 2022? | 1645603140000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 67} | 0 | 4.966282509295063 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644940184961 | Oleg S | This market resolves to YES if Manifold app for trading/creating markets is available on Android/Apple app store by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 73.87474822514842, "YES": 92.45521831148423} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645899566124 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1644940184961 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 6 | 1715658391445 | 0 | 1 | 0.6103316883938547 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6566497442641688 | tTwz5m6rhlRFnmxrmW6z | {"NO": 192.2924067112172, "YES": 80.23310103085913} | 1 | will-manchester-city-football-club | 425.606901764631 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 85} | Will Manchester City Football Club win the 2021-2022 Premier League? | 1653238623873 | oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 85} | 0 | 2.9947993604046834 | True | play | YES | public | 1644940963301 | Nick Hansen | This market will resolve to Yes if, on May 23rd, 2022, Manchester City Football Club occupies the #1 position in the Premier League table.
Initial probability based on the FiveThirtyEight estimate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 65.33801343896216, "YES": 92.19636652737461} | {"creatorFee": 4.2821158359455636, "platformFee": 0.713685972657594, "liquidityFee": 4.2821158359455636} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1653238623873 | 104.28211583594555 | NickHansen | 1652987304448 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJMhAHO6lUyyX5TOGoPPZjylGQ3-DLNgmXUxS0Q_4=s96-c | 5 | 1650314790003 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409166}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000443}] | ["sports-default", "soccer"] | 1652987304290 | 1651800728745 | False | 0.820903483945252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17570698850208666 | 2QGxIf3yjmspSuafXAOk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17570698850208666 | will-i-go-to-the-eifel-in-march | 36.715450535665454 | {"NO": 26.25, "YES": 9.034549464334546} | Will I go to the Eifel in March? | 1646414495568 | R4FbgN5gRZb5FpjUaA2WDYS7ei23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26.25, "YES": 8.75} | 0 | 5.489426922317197 | True | play | NO | public | 1644944786570 | Torey | This market resolves YES if I go with my colleagues to the Eifel region of Germany/Belgium in March. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 32.03595637170834, "YES": 14.790791065727351} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646414495568 | 100 | Torey | 1644944786570 | 0 | 2 | 1715656921458 | 0 | 0.17570698850208666 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | jG8wBd8Ow2t9JByfJ2JK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | how-many-people-will-buy-get-baptiz | 171.31777728701417 | {"NO": 139.68222271298583, "YES": 11} | How many people will buy (& get baptized by) a bidet after seeing this market in February? | 1646117940000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.9008440687758 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644946031313 | Ian Philips | For each 5% we get 1 person to buy and radically change their life with a bidet.
Feb 15, 10:27am: I should say: how many people will be convinced by this market
Feb 15, 12:10pm: You have to post a video of baptizing yourself with the bidet | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.64382566978838, "YES": 34.65576431273736} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646137285705 | 100 | ian | 1644946031313 | 0 | 3 | 1715658568743 | 0 | 1 | 1645017284343 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9426015379249161 | cY9CcglrKSTKqFnwH3YJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9426015379249161 | matthew-records-a-10k-under-1-hour | 70 | {"NO": 5.25, "YES": 64.75} | Matthew records a 10k under 1 hour in 2022. | 1672527540000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.25, "YES": 64.75} | 0 | 5.1511516743779335 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946209389 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 10k segment is less than 60 minutes.
Feb 20, 4:55pm: https://pasteboard.co/bqcwST5p9XXu.jpg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.77082287814167, "YES": 67.96233884284737} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1645372654960 | 100 | Matthew | 1644946209389 | 0 | 3 | 1715658433146 | 0 | 0.9426015379249161 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9733853166806454 | kr86CNXEZj6hgkHs97Kr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9733853166806454 | will-we-dont-talk-about-bruno-from-53549f0f84ca | 57.315764698530515 | {"NO": 3.5, "YES": 43.184235301469485} | Will We Don't Talk About Bruno from Encanto still be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on the week ending February 19th? | 1645505940000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.5, "YES": 43.5} | 0 | 5.337658284332736 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946354913 | Kira | https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.616232680925654, "YES": 46.059789349318265} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645641944892 | 100 | Kira | 1644946354913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 6 | 1715658604263 | 0 | 1 | 0.9733853166806454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.85 | c8fjVkxWB3ezHuEI6WFl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | matthew-records-a-211k-under-2-hour | 25 | {"NO": 3.7500000000000004, "YES": 21.25} | Matthew records a 21.1k under 2 hours in 2022. | 1666278347645 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.7500000000000004, "YES": 21.25} | 0 | 5.436448474979963 | True | play | YES | public | 1644946410953 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 21.1k segment is less than 120 minutes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.682845663853167, "YES": 23.04978309767795} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1666278347645 | 100 | Matthew | 1644946410953 | 0 | 1 | 1650314669183 | 0 | 2 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.671288768780001 | aVOLKtPM6IXK7zlpOpmP | {"NO": 47.1659659854277, "YES": 144.4823612376961} | 0 | matthew-records-a-422k-marathon-und | 94.73006130261992 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 22} | Matthew records a 42.2k (marathon) under 4 hours in 2022. | 1671919478878 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 22} | 0 | 3.29522564405729 | True | play | NO | public | 1644946957689 | Matthew | This resolves to YES if I post a Strava run in 2022, where a 42.2k segment is less than 240 minutes.
External info: I have run one marathon and one almost marathon before in less than 4 hours, but those are at least 3 years in the past. I am looking at running more, longer distances this year, but am not officially si... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.213910542377615, "YES": 30.31573849504577} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1671919478878 | 100 | Matthew | 1668350208122 | 0 | 5 | 1650314657782 | 0 | 6 | 1668350207987 | 1668347929146 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004907554364740757 | rCnvxAxaKJZIritrSDF0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004907554364740757 | will-wednesdays-xkcd-have-more-than | 5600.3722907706515 | {"NO": 4057.575349034656, "YES": 352.05236019469226} | Will Wednesday's xkcd have more than one panel? | 1645603140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4085, "YES": 225} | 0 | 4.626394266229284 | True | play | NO | public | 1644947901582 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/16/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count.)
Feb 16, 5:07pm: If no xkcd is posted on 2/16/22 (my time zone, PST) I'll resolve it to N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4398.795155008434, "YES": 308.9118604618659} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645102544755 | 100 | charlie | 1644947901582 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 29 | 1715658763178 | 0 | 1645075254997 | 0.004907554364740757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2603900859970383 | XNPUTIdCnAQx0bJNuSCk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2603900859970383 | will-i-get-offered-an-internship-at | 195 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 135} | Will I get offered an internship at CHAI this summer? | 1646778546247 | 9sTqcbZozmNFODWb5YGj5Gs7Ery2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.842856042885442 | True | play | YES | public | 1644948899568 | Katie Lu | This market resolves to YES if I receive an offer from CHAI for Summer 2022 (I was told to expect a final decision by late February, but it may take longer depending on their hiring team's workload.)
I just interviewed with 2 potential mentors over the past week or so. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.70140757967393, "YES": 177.06007455239592} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646778546247 | 100 | kqlu4156 | 1644948899568 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjxx8JKPa_3ewatqUhziu8TiATo5HjNf0UWKb0G-w=s96-c | 5 | 1715658291628 | 0 | 1646780139049 | 0.2603900859970383 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19423796952311637 | 7XeUUvQYoGKuuawHPPIq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.19423796952311637 | will-i-donate-50-to-wikipedia-in-fe | 3668.7805435369482 | {"NO": 173.33337777253843, "YES": 119.88607869051293} | Will I donate $50 to Wikipedia in February 2022? | 1646121540000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192, "YES": 119} | 0 | 4.772320730636125 | True | play | NO | public | 1644949039773 | Oleg S | I want to test if Manifold Market can be cashed out indirectly. I will donate $50 to Wikipedia foundation in February if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $50.
If you want to indirectly donate your $M to Wikipedia, buy NO
Mar 1, 6:59pm: The market closed at 19%, which produc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 263.2071391269817, "YES": 129.22940068339713} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1646190164664 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1644949039773 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 15 | 1715657628980 | 0 | 1 | 1646116649256 | 0.19423796952311637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7139722145001657 | GQS1ayuxAuIHtLn9GIfh | {"NO": 482.3123760128557, "YES": 65.97345792226454} | 1 | will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo | 1621.7704230617755 | {"NO": 82.43193379532278, "YES": 167.44226416557626} | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," in the United States? | 1655568000000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 78, "YES": 170} | 0 | 3.4893715506192615 | True | play | YES | public | 1644953109635 | Patrick Delaney | https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/19-1392.html
This case is largely cited as the one which would, "Overturn Roe v. Wade."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women's_Health_Organization
However it is possible that the interpretation of, "Overturning Roe v. Wa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 136.6537296873741, "YES": 209.19697110266335} | {"creatorFee": 9.200665050685783, "platformFee": 1.3607651884824656, "liquidityFee": 8.164591130894793} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1656088874983 | 108.16459113089478 | PatrickDelaney | 1655410177649 | 0 | 20 | 1650313874829 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330761}] | ["scotus"] | 1655410176157 | 1652816217629 | 0.948048475205344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.88 | L3GDUP3scfpZppkBUmas | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.88 | can-manifold-markets-solve-this-mat | 912.8568843821375 | {"NO": 92.35619194530602, "YES": 368.78692367255644} | Can Manifold Markets solve this math problem? | 1644998340000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 380} | 0 | 4.717955531789002 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644954249411 | Rahul Sridhar | 4 points are chosen uniformly at random on the surface of a sphere. What is the probability that there is a hemisphere containing all 4 points?
This question uses Manifold Markets' PROB resolution, and resolves to the probability asked for in the above problem.
Feb 16, 12:01am: The correct answer (as many commenters ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 164.2442803240042, "YES": 430.90336706717716} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644998534268 | 100 | fortenforge | 1644954249411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 10 | 1715657965573 | 0 | 1644975928938 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8358371590786811 | X776YcJRZZVLdy467VXD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8358371590786811 | is-microsoft-office-2019-is-the-las | 199 | {"NO": 39, "YES": 160} | Is Microsoft Office 2019 is the last OEM / Perpetual version of Office? | 1672506000000 | ruICuyLDhbhsg2p1MJI23aVqDrL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 39, "YES": 160} | 0 | 4.838764191192149 | True | play | NO | public | 1644954752954 | Anthony Peterson | Usually Office perpetual versions have been updated every 3 years, but if we don't see Office 2022 this year, it would seem they have gone from strongly encouraging Office 365, to not supporting Perpetual at all. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 80.62926267987324, "YES": 181.93493342593666} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645034341718 | 100 | AnthonyPeterson | 1644954752954 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6Se3lLl7KLNeb0yooHgjcUR78bSawSCd2SznS=s96-c | 3 | 1715658285288 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449871}] | ["technology-default"] | 1644971785479 | 0.8358371590786811 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.812501275470725 | dokgik65h0fUGP6rPY3K | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.812501275470725 | will-project-lawful-and-their-obliv | 42 | {"NO": 6.75, "YES": 35.25} | Will "project lawful and their oblivious boyfriend" update on Wednesday? | 1645030800000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6.75, "YES": 35.25} | 0 | 5.392812367046689 | True | play | YES | public | 1644957051999 | Em ✨ | Pacific time. Will resolve NA it if it's obviously an under the wire thing like 1 tag at 11:58pm. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.186904633554335, "YES": 37.85921949604878} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1645071748154 | 100 | hamnox | 1644957051999 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 6 | 1715658471997 | 0 | 0.812501275470725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2733190301158057 | 4slpvmtjTJT8Z5m2l8WH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2733190301158057 | will-the-80k-jobs-board-bot-be-fini | 2002.4032587369347 | {"NO": 979.0967412630653, "YES": 1016.5} | Will the 80k jobs board bot be finished by Mar 1? | 1646035140000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 979.5, "YES": 1016.5} | 0 | 4.6398608098489635 | True | play | NO | public | 1644962327131 | Em ✨ | Current programmer is busy with other projects, asked if others were interested in EA corner. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1701.158961394751, "YES": 1043.2969534128717} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000648074069840786, "YES": 0.0007615773105863907} | 0 | 1646178765023 | 100 | hamnox | 1644962327131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 13 | 1715656984416 | 0 | 1 | 0.2733190301158057 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | 8FKF2AgFJN1Byd7Z0WiC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-major-league-baseball-be-playe | 100 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | Will Major League Baseball be played at all in 2022? | 1646959647961 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644964655819 | CompmanJX3 | The market resolves to "Yes" if Major League Baseball games are played in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1646959647961 | 100 | CompmanJX3 | 1644964655819 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 1 | 1715657638604 | 0 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9852127240169498 | FAYO5PlQq4ZmlRTIzcup | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9852127240169498 | will-eagxboston-2022-take-place-the | 46.066869808881876 | {"NO": 1.5000000000000004, "YES": 40.433130191118124} | Will EAGxBoston 2022 take place the first weekend of April? | 1648900792264 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.5000000000000004, "YES": 40.5} | 0 | 5.393663805878533 | True | play | YES | public | 1644965024923 | Juan Gil | This market resolves to "YES" if the conference EAGxBoston 2022 takes place on April 1, April 2, or April 3 of 2022.
This market resolves to "NO" if the conference is postponed or cancelled such that it doesn't take place on those dates or if it no longer has the name "EAGxBoston".
Conference details here: https://ww... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5.099313684212808, "YES": 41.622929676269116} | {"creatorFee": 0.057325207644725006, "platformFee": 0.014331301911181251, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1648900792264 | 100 | juan | 1644965024923 | 0 | 6 | 1715657835334 | 0 | 0.9852127240169498 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9821562417440015 | oRvSQPhv3lIZ0cJuGPfL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9821562417440015 | will-manifold-markets-users-send-me | 2590.463389117116 | {"NO": 325.23968594066116, "YES": 1648.2969249422226} | Will Manifold Markets users send me $10 worth of crypto to cause this question to resolve YES before the end of the Winter Olympics? | 1645333140000 | q6mHIccDQBW5XoLAMgHpoiwnxe53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192.5, "YES": 1653.5} | 0 | 4.640133856583903 | True | play | YES | public | 1644967164216 | alexlyzhov | This market resolves to "YES" if and only if the total value of all incoming transactions to the wallets listed below exceeds the equivalent of $10 before the end of the Winter Olympics.
Solana: https://solscan.io/account/EztYGQvMGy9shzgpWNox9U8zHkHPK5mSgXxo3PFWHyPQ
Polygon: https://polygonscan.com/address/0x9655F2F29... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 263.62620196408636, "YES": 1955.8506914402512} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645334342684 | 100 | alexlyzhov | 1644967164216 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Falexlyzhov%2FFIbh-lHVUAQd5Z9.jfif?alt=media&token=9e1a1b5e-63f6-4da7-8786-0d0496e3a145 | 33 | 1715658681748 | 0 | 1645302642852 | 0.9821562417440015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.77 | 3rewHHouDb8jW974IuvU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.77 | is-it-pretty | 110 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 77} | is it pretty? | 1645603140000 | HH6nyOCRMgfDs8CGsCxR3Vh3Nhj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 77} | 0 | 4.988396119230901 | True | play | NO | public | 1644968534214 | nick jones | resolves to yes is pretty stuff is pretty, ever. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 66.33299330069465, "YES": 87.75052137035996} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004795831523312719, "YES": 0.0008774964387392122} | 0 | 1644968671815 | 100 | nickjones | 1644968534214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8BBzosvNDfV7a2R04Pv90IYBegT_YiefSIIg=s96-c | 1 | 1715656957271 | 0 | 0.77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5051309021408631 | BMO5VdGeXL5jl1inghh9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5051309021408631 | can-you-be-sure-that-random-is-not | 14 | {"NO": 4.1, "YES": 9.9} | Can you be sure that "random is not knowing about the process of the cause-effect relationship?" | 1645289940000 | bDX5FjgGfaSBi48a9aJ6pBnf34f1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4.1, "YES": 9.9} | 0 | 2.7728807194099776 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644972315371 | Seremonia | This must be accepted 100%, but the policy allows only 99% rated | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.84927408543391, "YES": 9.950869358503306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1701090630158 | 100 | Seremonia | 1701090626541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj-nEE8Yhq8B9bTZBFINaFDtfalKifnBnQA_9dv5Q=s96-c | 2 | 1650313839644 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1701090625667 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06726721382464892 | fVhLMitb4xPNzmp7Jzws | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06726721382464892 | will-i-get-a-covid-test-before-marc | 355.85518276916076 | {"NO": 228.14481723083924, "YES": 40} | Will I get a Covid test before March 10th? | 1646812740000 | qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 231, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.785806864516165 | True | play | NO | public | 1644974834407 | Unconditional Probability | Feb 13th I had a sore throat, Feb 15th I had a sore throat, mild fever, runny nose, sneezing and lethargy. As all of the symptoms are mild, I am not recommended to get a Covid test.
If my symptoms worsen enough, I will get a Covid test, and this market will resolve YES.
If that does not happen by March 10th, this marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 258.9701141619845, "YES": 69.5460945655711} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646899664066 | 100 | UnconditionalProbability | 1644974834407 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c | 13 | 1715658508298 | 0 | 1 | 1646285829061 | 0.06726721382464892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02426656758518793 | XXXlSNLrm4tc9g7nxOlW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02426656758518793 | will-pepe-remain-1-on-the-top-trade | 792.994368720477 | {"NO": 492.93352170363164, "YES": 42.07210957589132} | Will Pepe remain #1 on the Top Traders leaderboard as of March 1st? | 1646110740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 493, "YES": 35} | 0 | 4.704384752502331 | True | play | NO | public | 1644975328348 | Duncn | As per https://manifold.markets/leaderboards, will Pepe be #1 on the 1st of March? This will resolve yes if e is #1 when I check the leaderboard on March 1st, which will most likely be circa 5:00 PM, EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 528.4753778770074, "YES": 83.3418891723587} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646135267607 | 100 | Duncn | 1644975328348 | 0 | 11 | 1715658296144 | 0 | 1 | 1645017621592 | 0.02426656758518793 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09020523306568061 | LYm1h9jz9ZBbrnBIijlV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09020523306568061 | if-i-get-a-covid-test-by-march-10th | 285.7113985026825 | {"NO": 153.13723693533282, "YES": 51.15136456198462} | If I get a Covid test by March 10th, will it be positive? | 1646899739866 | qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 53} | 0 | 4.833575511318976 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644975527920 | Unconditional Probability | Feb 13th I had a sore throat, Feb 15th I had a sore throat, mild fever, runny nose, sneezing and lethargy. As all of the symptoms are mild, I am not recommended to get a Covid test.
I am between 20 - 25 years old, and Male.
If my symptoms worsen enough, I will get a Covid test.
If I do not get a test by March 10th, thi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 194.8578823616255, "YES": 61.35671895950503} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646899739866 | 100 | UnconditionalProbability | 1644975527920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c | 7 | 1715657977618 | 0 | 1644975646775 | 0.09020523306568061 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.972091884069661 | cZ3au6fOYEASP0kYH8F9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.972091884069661 | will-manifold-markets-users-send-al | 765.11952719378 | {"NO": 63.78047280621996, "YES": 369.1} | Will Manifold Markets users send alexlyzhov $10 worth of crypto to cause ier question to resolve YES before the end of the Winter Olympics? | 1645308000000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48.900000000000006, "YES": 369.1} | 0 | 4.724308317834911 | True | play | YES | public | 1644976030546 | Duncn | This will resolve yes if https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-manifold-markets-users-send-me resolves yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.61025460838299, "YES": 429.2946180436845} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1645283650450 | 100 | Duncn | 1644976030546 | 0 | 14 | 1715658434415 | 0 | 1645264633754 | 0.972091884069661 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5867761081958199 | ViEwNNaWDVsIDnl7K1QY | {"NO": 61.07848810162298, "YES": 141.50877448498755} | 0 | will-the-2022-atlantic-hurricane-se | 234.90928910917657 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | Will the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season be more active than average? | 1672549140000 | RgGl9Su3TIRqrOiVhbDTPbM1b3f1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | 0 | 2.946238335533881 | True | play | NO | public | 1644979003974 | Drew Polasky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) as measured by NOAA. This will resolve yes if the total ACE for the 2022 season exceeds the 1991-2020 average value of 122.1 x10^4 kt^2", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "con... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 84.26220980071672} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672622581686 | 100 | DrewPolasky | 1670257331381 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghj0wJfGQmMhF-MwE73fRRi5B3alEtisrSsiZVR=s96-c | 5 | 1650314619561 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1670257331208 | 0.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.026077142189208077 | a66gSR5T68k61ByJQbXG | {"NO": 99.7743185598431, "YES": 109.99762959969064} | 0.023710968324864877 | will-i-donate-bone-marrow-before-th | 262.1975446019723 | {"NO": 162.97922611175383, "YES": 36.82322928627387} | Will I donate bone marrow before the end of August 2022? | 1662004800000 | mNn3YOAwsFPloL70twZZJb7ayy93 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 167, "YES": 25} | 0 | 9.675077147847531 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644979120110 | Lorelei | this market resolves to YES if i have undergone a procedure to donate either Peripheral blood stem cell donation (PBSC) or Bone marrow donation before the end of August 2022, and NO if on September 1st I've still not undergone either of these procedures. for context, i have already received an email indicating I have a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 197.1810609272393, "YES": 32.26530645445662} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1680899790981 | 100.01422240185612 | Lorelei | 1680899790240 | 0 | 12 | 1650314654744 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893888}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1661420197680 | 1680899788126 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.983601580331787 | RPBJb398xs16NdgKXXxB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.983601580331787 | will-the-power-outage-affecting-my | 215 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 203} | Will the power outage affecting my neighbors be resolved by Thursday morning? | 1645084740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 203} | 0 | 4.823773574090237 | True | play | YES | public | 1644979672139 | Alicorn | The power has been out at several of my neighbors' houses all day. (My house has solar and a Powerwall, so they're all coming here for electricity-related needs.) When I wake up on Thursday will I find that it's all fixed? There were like four PG&E cherrypickers actively working on utility poles and wires near my pl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.532235661130027, "YES": 213.23087487627114} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645129697390 | 100 | Alicorn | 1644979672139 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 9 | 1715658168206 | 0 | 1 | 1645037321837 | 0.983601580331787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3111311390254658 | v84pjLPaVdZsI0EB8ANM | {"NO": 103.68241044003571, "YES": 270.05103531462714} | 0 | will-i-get-covid-in-2022 | 251.5571362201186 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 32.777667845522366} | Will I get covid in 2022? | 1672559940000 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 33} | 0 | 2.6275556496880843 | True | play | NO | public | 1644979813120 | Anna | This question will resolve to YES if, at some point during 2022, I get a positive covid test (official PCR test or Cue molecular at-home test) and don't for some reason believe it is a false positive.
To avoid edge cases, the market will resolve N/A if I get a positive test but believe it is a false positive for some ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.78920367028616, "YES": 53.51521105455576} | {"creatorFee": 0.498465493586549, "platformFee": 0.08307758226442484, "liquidityFee": 0.498465493586549} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1672565761484 | 140.49846549358654 | tcheasdfjkl | 1670512758560 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 16 | 1650314799208 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1670512758424 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2806345226244328 | t1jCVIRiJWBXZIWxcWod | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2806345226244328 | this-will-resolve-at-whatever-proba | 2401.1481482400777 | {"NO": 1085, "YES": 1055.8518517599223} | This will resolve at whatever probability the implied probability is at resolve time using the PROB function. | 1645592340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1085, "YES": 1057} | 0 | 4.6382018074604545 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644985646548 | Garrett Baker | If the probability is 20%, then it resolves to 20%. If the probability is 90% it resolves to 90%. Same with all other percents. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1815.7732499597564, "YES": 1134.1157073328877} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645592739382 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644985646548 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 10 | 1715658797222 | 0 | 1645592369209 | 0.2806345226244328 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15717503980880906 | 0DUTSSIHVI1QFGlve2q2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15717503980880906 | what-random-number-16-did-google-pi | 26 | {"NO": 21.75, "YES": 4.25} | What random number (1-6) did Google pick for me? | 1645621140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21.75, "YES": 4.25} | 0 | 5.675241861354484 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644986767568 | Undox | Resolves to YES if the first guess made in the comments matches the number picked.
To prove the result, here is a SHA256 hash of the answer, with a salt. I can reveal the original plaintext after closing. 5f06819f235d40c1815ecf1e87baa603fa073abadde912c8829d975ada67d420
Feb 16, 3:46pm: I will not bet either.
Feb 16, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.870347731652338, "YES": 10.308176374606713} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009110433579144299, "YES": 0.0004123105625617661} | 0 | 1645070357824 | 100 | Undox | 1644986767568 | 0 | 2 | 1715656862520 | 0 | 1644995257768 | 0.15717503980880906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8401203455406355 | X9uofGiBgY7WJ4cIForB | {"NO": 411.72428269864446, "YES": 93.47264585591125} | 1 | will-mark-zuckerberg-still-be-metas | 777.9512867129031 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 496} | Will Mark Zuckerberg still be Meta's CEO on January 1st, 2023? | 1672559940000 | CZRHUYZhLfVUSco4lNb9Xi69Fr62 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 496} | 0 | 4.80890364356118 | True | play | YES | public | 1644987658081 | Scott Mackie | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 252.0400206318433, "YES": 524.596027435302} | {"creatorFee": 0.7859287057824098, "platformFee": 0.042200851754808213, "liquidityFee": 0.2532051105288493} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1677364818820 | 120.25320511052885 | ScottMackie | 1669134784226 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo0RslEHH9ih_DYSP_KYVeik1gT8FL_ihO5VHK7Os=s96-c | 27 | 1650314628133 | 0 | 12 | 27 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449940}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670554564}] | ["technology-default", "please-resolve"] | 1669134783951 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9902122369879902 | U6uDtpHvgrJAWIgxyP2e | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9902122369879902 | will-i-write-my-first-ever-glowfic | 2513.6382949894855 | {"NO": 97.70819569491918, "YES": 1846.6535093155953} | Will I write my first ever glowfic before the end of the month? | 1647307004922 | mNn3YOAwsFPloL70twZZJb7ayy93 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 94, "YES": 1852} | 0 | 4.6405043593759405 | True | play | YES | public | 1644988786901 | Lorelei | this market will resolve to YES if i contribute 10 or more tags to a single thread on the glowfic website before the end of March 16th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.36187647403196, "YES": 1934.8238258599138} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1647307004922 | 100 | Lorelei | 1644988786901 | 0 | 22 | 1715658223043 | 0 | 1647140554623 | 0.9902122369879902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.829294001082559 | qkOHGUgpVpT7A8BRPK88 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.829294001082559 | will-i-get-exceeds-expectations-or | 299.46768474846385 | {"NO": 48.69349519390681, "YES": 161.83882005762936} | Will I get "exceeds expectations" or higher in my upcoming performance review? | 1649879813233 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48.400000000000006, "YES": 168.6} | 0 | 4.827752547460188 | True | play | YES | public | 1644989767545 | Anna | In the one last fall I got "consistently meets expectations" but was told I'm near the top of that bucket; since then, I've taken on more & higher-level responsibilities, and my manager seems pretty happy with how I'm doing. I also personally think that I've gotten more done this cycle than last, though still less than... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 86.98517087811786, "YES": 191.72338636198594} | {"creatorFee": 1.6772926100614476, "platformFee": 0.4193231525153619, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00042426406871192855, "YES": 0.0009055385138137417} | 0 | 1649879813233 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1644989767545 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 14 | 1715658749587 | 0 | 0.829294001082559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21191243030078094 | 2ls1daxzy9H1oDsWvw69 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21191243030078094 | will-i-get-a-strongly-exceeds-expec | 144.65918822731908 | {"NO": 79.8836052493058, "YES": 23.45720652337512} | Will I get a "strongly exceeds expectations" rating (or higher) in my upcoming performance review? | 1649879847283 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80.5, "YES": 23.5} | 0 | 5.008176694508541 | True | play | NO | public | 1644989885299 | Anna | In the one last fall I got "consistently meets expectations" but was told I'm near the top of that bucket; since then, I've taken on more & higher-level responsibilities, and my manager seems pretty happy with how I'm doing. I also personally think that I've gotten more done this cycle than last, though still less than... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 91.74096626304875, "YES": 47.572315158949024} | {"creatorFee": 0.9136324709072369, "platformFee": 0.22840811772680922, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1649879847283 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1644989885299 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 12 | 1715656930620 | 0 | 1644998249772 | 0.21191243030078094 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.060553382335576764 | kYyBv2amSdjiyp8zZY6n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.060553382335576764 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-17022022 | 284 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 14} | Will Russia invade Ukraine 17-02-2022 (Ukraine local time) | 1645059540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 14} | 0 | 4.777023617442998 | True | play | NO | public | 1644996713546 | Undox | If there is a bandwagon, Im jumping on it
Feb 17, 12:00pm: ok it is closer to avoid live betting that i cannot react quickly. best of luck to NO for obvious reasons as on all these kinds of bets. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 275.26812383739605, "YES": 69.88582116595612} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002} | 0 | 1645135040959 | 100 | Undox | 1644996713546 | 0 | 9 | 1715658599640 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502683}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226933}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.060553382335576764 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5036665648169366 | jZ7gRgcLXPcQFMi3eTtm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5036665648169366 | will-the-sp-500-close-with-at-an-ev | 72 | {"NO": 32, "YES": 40} | Will the S&P 500 close with at an even number of cents on February 16th, 2022? | 1645047900000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 32, "YES": 40} | 0 | 5.139639355189075 | True | play | NO | public | 1644997617904 | Adam | This market will resolve true if the closing price of the S&P 500 as reported by my quickly googling it shortly after 2 PM PST on February 16th 2022, in US Cents, is divisible by two.
Feb 16, 2:18pm: Closing price: 4,475.01, resolved NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.72537826867337, "YES": 51.09872797340457} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645049925354 | 100 | Adam | 1644997617904 | 0 | 3 | 1715658578782 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574234}] | ["economics-default"] | 1644998074789 | 0.5036665648169366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.003374916300011877 | 31DDtQuOymXFDrfAQZL9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.003374916300011877 | will-this-market-have-an-even-numbe | 6664.095298080923 | {"NO": 6008.8574144919985, "YES": 239.04728742707803} | Will this market have an even numbered probability when trading closes? | 1645343940000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5988, "YES": 243} | 0 | 4.623090711510444 | True | play | YES | public | 1645000516325 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6237.353711976751, "YES": 362.9660201213771} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645690310672 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1645000516325 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 18 | 1715656937362 | 0 | 1 | 0.003374916300011877 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8415176827223161 | GKajF9Z0YrOYDcA4J8nX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8415176827223161 | will-i-release-a-substantive-web3-c | 3434.146152840423 | {"NO": 663.5033235569044, "YES": 1442.3505236026729} | Will I release a substantive web3 (crypto) game in 30 days? | 1646869680000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 672, "YES": 1409} | 0 | 4.638580849279846 | True | play | YES | public | 1645001107997 | Undox | I am learning web3 and smart contracts.
The goal is to release a game based on this.
I haven’t chosen the game but the level of complexity might be:
* Texas holdem, adapted for zero trust and decentralized play
* Dynamic Paramutual! Inspired by this site.
* Chess (there is some prior art i can use for this)
* Somethin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 838.3373955495971, "YES": 1931.7906326847647} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646882226977 | 100 | Undox | 1645001107997 | 0 | 24 | 1715657862516 | 0 | 1 | 1646645798091 | 0.8415176827223161 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9133460261495443 | gxSfxyXYQfeKCidQFTQt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9133460261495443 | will-my-application-to-attend-ea-gl | 427 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 171.00000000000003} | Will my application to attend EA Global 2022 be successful? | 1647257242283 | vpUKQAVSO1TNHrsAIfw5izIfEu03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 171} | 0 | 4.8310079614964065 | True | play | YES | public | 1645010117085 | Sam Atis | I applied this year to go to EA Global 2022 in London. These were some relevant answers to the questions they asked in the application form.
Imagine the event(s) you are applying to has/have gone exceptionally well for you. What will have happened?
I will have networked with a number of EAs and potential funders wh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 60.93498174570991, "YES": 197.8290726881416} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1647257242283 | 100 | SamAtis | 1645010117085 | 0 | 7 | 1715658537435 | 0 | 0.9133460261495443 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014846237304686441 | 9AXNpz8T2SZnzbsjKz8X | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014846237304686441 | will-tesla-stock-be-above-900-when | 2510.652564748254 | {"NO": 1501.3474352517462, "YES": 160} | Will Tesla stock be above $900 when markets close on February 28? | 1646089140000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1525, "YES": 160} | 0 | 4.64476376174871 | True | play | NO | public | 1645014403136 | Valentin Manès |
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1648.9699333499452, "YES": 202.42722697627258} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1646100527145 | 100 | ValentinManes | 1645014403136 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 14 | 1715657660156 | 0 | 1 | 0.014846237304686441 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8810219816920045 | trQUCZmaALJUOzdKAG1f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | using-the-selenographic-coordinate | 205 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 155} | Using the Selenographic Coordinate System, Will the Chang'e 5-T1 booster Hit the Moon at +5.18, east longitude 233.55 on March 5th, Approximately 12:25 Universal Time, Within | 1646396700000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 155} | 0 | 6.612595933412692 | True | play | NO | public | 1645014415128 | Patrick Delaney | From This Story:
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/15/1080827033/space-junk-piece-set-to-hit-the-moon-likely-from-a-chinese-rocket-not-spacex?live=1
Independent Astronomical Software Supplier and Astronomer, "Project Pluto," has forecasted as of 16 Feb 2022 that there is an object, originally identified as a SpaceX rocket a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 192.4196195830872} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1670426611967 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1670426599267 | 0 | 7 | 1650314791897 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535568}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659590679790}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": ... | ["science-default", "space", "please-resolve"] | 1670426594031 | 0.8810219816920045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36870787913741554 | KnHW8pHQgS1X2UhZwF73 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.36870787913741554 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-90800-on | 539.7511884375422 | {"NO": 298.9488115624578, "YES": 205.3} | Will TSLA close at or over $908.00 on February 16, 2022? | 1645041600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 301.7, "YES": 205.3} | 0 | 4.70957485510938 | True | play | YES | public | 1645022633185 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $908.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 400.64610877054486, "YES": 306.1871453666775} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645045330317 | 100 | Predictor | 1645022633185 | 0 | 6 | 1715657962635 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425043}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.36870787913741554 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5069432871816968 | JFyn5MEZJQvhStgN9HO0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5069432871816968 | will-the-market-linked-below-resolv | 14 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | Will the market linked below resolve at <50%? | 1645678740000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.224494432347195 | True | play | YES | public | 1645026266018 | Garrett Baker | Feb 16, 10:44am: https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/will-the-market-linked-below-resolv-4154e82188bf
Feb 16, 10:45am: If it resolves at precisely 50%, then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.42686184175343, "YES": 8.5447059926015} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646166488450 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1645026266018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 1715657931911 | 0 | 1 | 0.5069432871816968 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4930567128183032 | 6VvrxKi5X5NQuHbg6Wa0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4930567128183032 | will-the-market-linked-below-resolv-4154e82188bf | 14 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | Will the market linked below resolve at >50%? | 1645678740000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.224494432347195 | True | play | YES | public | 1645026267342 | Garrett Baker | Feb 16, 10:44am: https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/will-the-market-linked-below-resolv
Feb 16, 10:45am: If it resolves at precisely 50%, then this resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.5447059926015, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646166481593 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1645026267342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 3 | 1715657603091 | 0 | 1 | 0.4930567128183032 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.031730759183827104 | t9hfGuDfVlGOQfntLXgQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.031730759183827104 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi | 4424.296502713957 | {"NO": 966.888080865898, "YES": 398.81541642014656} | Will the implied probability of this market be >50%, when averaged over the last 24 hours? | 1645505940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1062, "YES": 175} | 0 | 4.651064465541353 | True | play | NO | public | 1645029994485 | Jenny | I'm taking the average over the last day to try to prevent the strategy used in https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in.
Technical details: I will integrate the implied probability from 2/20 23:59:00 EST to 2/21 23:59:00 EST and divide the result by 24 hours. The market will resolve ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1343.8624138357554, "YES": 243.2747142365268} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645506123557 | 100 | Jenny | 1645029994485 | 0 | 14 | 1715658802086 | 0 | 1645421974211 | 0.031730759183827104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8081884883770197 | y43CqudFEYuAQ1ARQ0o1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8081884883770197 | will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw | 1077.666840521531 | {"NO": 151.99762701822874, "YES": 432.3355324602403} | Will the Weighted Outcome of the Two Largest Russia-Ukraine Invasion Predictions on Manifold Markets Currently Be Correct? | 1645622340000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 441} | 0 | 4.697155996477962 | True | play | YES | public | 1645030216255 | Patrick Delaney | ***NOTE - this is a weighted index of the two other markets, so what we are betting on here is the ACCURACY of the other markets, not the actual outcome of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.***
The two largest manifold markets on Russia-Ukraine short-term invasion are currently:
A) Invade before end of February
https://man... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 255.91668962294546, "YES": 525.3123431881666} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645885979679 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645030216255 | 0 | 10 | 1715658930616 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409539}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223509}] | ["sports-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645044216157 | False | 0.8081884883770197 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18414152328959235 | jMlw3dgNUgd5Giwu2qGW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.18414152328959235 | will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed | 26677.082179920508 | {"NO": 3415.454716864433, "YES": 1329.4631032150583} | Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours? | 1645678740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3615.5, "YES": 869.5} | 0 | 4.625601872803926 | True | play | NO | public | 1645030305026 | Jenny | Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours.
Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%!
Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4567.064053859529, "YES": 1286.926780002932} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645505943252 | 100 | Jenny | 1645030305026 | 0 | 29 | 1715658573156 | 0 | 1645505991142 | 0.18414152328959235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08082787180256816 | sT8Zhc7Tg8HWQcwRCpSw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08082787180256816 | will-user-alexlyzhov-solicitation-o | 81 | {"NO": 25.1, "YES": 9.899999999999999} | Will User alexlyzhov Solicitation of $10 Crypto Result in Accusations of Fraud or Be Resolved with No Outcome? | 1645397940000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25.1, "YES": 9.899999999999999} | 0 | 5.494087723523295 | True | play | YES | public | 1645032703194 | Patrick Delaney | https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-manifold-markets-users-send-me
Basically, will there be any kind of fraud accusation on this thread?
Case 1
"Nobody sent me any crypto!"
"Yes I did!"
"No, you didn't."
Case 2
"Hey bro, just sent you $10 in crypto wanted to make sure you got it."
"Nope, I didn't get it! Pleas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 33.55667146798085, "YES": 9.950869358503308} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1645294825801 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645032703194 | 0 | 7 | 1715658784805 | 0 | 0.08082787180256816 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45705734382385915 | 6EjxBqlMncRBzH3c04yA | {"NO": 149.37636141360852, "YES": 173.28838661524318} | 0 | will-i-end-up-importing-more-than-5 | 165.31957174314627 | {"NO": 27.978620340548243, "YES": 31.284648565212677} | Will I end up importing more than 50 of my Metaculus questions onto Manifold Markets by the end of 2022? | 1672549200000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 32} | 0 | 1.960367322754955 | True | play | NO | public | 1645039982083 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I end up copying over 50 of my Metaculus questions by the end of 2022, and NO otherwise. My written Metaculus questions can be found here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=author:Matthew_Barnett
At the time of writing, I have written 211 questions on Metaculus, which includes ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 43.86250742517714, "YES": 39.85390835678004} | {"creatorFee": 0.028614057391492906, "platformFee": 0.0071535143478732265, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672981814796 | 160 | MatthewBarnett | 1672327552138 | 0 | 17 | 1650313805018 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1672327551939 | 1647564073929 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03910698576171455 | 8ks2FhelWBtdXXmlmP0f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03910698576171455 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-90250-on | 16247.186571401948 | {"NO": 6278.762530975629, "YES": 1326.0508976224253} | Will TSLA close at or over $902.50 on February 17, 2022? | 1645128000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6576, "YES": 1318} | 0 | 4.621673350198634 | True | play | NO | public | 1645044820884 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $902.50 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7454.630793469845, "YES": 1503.8890339597071} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1645131913771 | 100 | Predictor | 1645044820884 | 0 | 21 | 1715657649679 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424389}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645118528134 | 0.03910698576171455 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.71 | oRJIwwpOTIaUu51cfqzY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.71 | will-this-market-receive-more-than | 2286 | {"NO": 538, "YES": 1748} | Will this market receive more than M$1000 by Feb 18th? | 1645221540000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 538, "YES": 1748} | 0 | 4.636752326524558 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645045448873 | Bob | Resolves to yes if market has more than 1000 invested by the 18th, no if not.
Feb 16, 1:34pm:
I meant to put 10,000 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1238.939900076069, "YES": 1921.1529080217692} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645047333616 | 100 | thadthechad | 1645045448873 | 0 | 11 | 1715658680141 | 0 | 1645047290505 | 0.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1250124996875 | RpYUM7ujRfObZhTfw8Gm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-a10s-retirement-be-signed | 20 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | Will the A-10's retirement be signed into law in 2022? | 1645685940000 | AUi3Xqhti2dSieVVsBMv4tF9Cvv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.336802518963145 | True | play | NO | public | 1645045808911 | Benjamin | The Air Force has attempted to retire their aging A-10 fleet for many years, but Congress keeps blocking their attempts.
This question resolves as Yes if Congress passes a bill by the end of 2020 that allows the Air Force to retire any portion of its A-10 fleet.
Feb 16, 2:12pm: 2022, not 2020. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.70908871377759, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1682630605999 | 100 | marthinwurer | 1680902644622 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhrYjrsvG9qq9nvDNJaCrCL75sPuC-106os1UY_fQ=s96-c | 2 | 1650314593257 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486872}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072251}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1680902641952 | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4443363194566427 | YivJXh7BEDgYC92d6uPP | {"NO": 122.50950952694734, "YES": 134.249131255019} | 1 | will-ukraine-win-eurovision-2022 | 8022.137979153831 | {"NO": 1599.1320106115138, "YES": 1340.7253315730957} | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? | 1652565300000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1654.5, "YES": 1382.5} | 0 | 2.3449277387240954 | True | play | YES | public | 1645050177682 | David Glidden | The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is scheduled to occur between Tuesday, May 10th and Saturday, May 14th. Will Ukraine win?
Mar 1, 7:22pm: If Ukraine does not compete, this market resolves "No". If the contest does not take place, it resolves "N/A". If they tie for 1st, it resolves "Yes". I'll add this to the descripti... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2227.1222435910563, "YES": 1919.0345448204887} | {"creatorFee": 17.88174168821717, "platformFee": 3.226282405355387, "liquidityFee": 14.929836200386854} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1652570676927 | 114.92983620038683 | dglid | 1652565247084 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 55 | 1650314643010 | 0 | 1 | 1652565245582 | 1652531490662 | 0.42187279809388356 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9131168688939827 | YhU8XscOdoe5sslEphmZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9131168688939827 | will-the-manifold-markets-discord-h | 19682.128125039402 | {"NO": 1440.204821553818, "YES": 7981.667053406776} | Will the Manifold Markets Discord have 200 or more members by Tuesday morning? | 1645505940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1411, "YES": 8052} | 0 | 4.620413005808498 | True | play | YES | public | 1645050536217 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if when I check the Manifold Markets Discord at 8:30am Eastern Time on Tuesday, February 22nd, the member count shows as 200 or more. Market closes the night prior.
Feb 21, 12:02pm: for details on exact method of measurement, see here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/938171760237477998/945... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2777.186030500692, "YES": 9003.273083935086} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645536747064 | 100 | dglid | 1645050536217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 47 | 1715658329051 | 0 | 1 | 1645497427146 | 0.9131168688939827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8898403362936738 | nC5xnMjHVrBd5gc4QnaV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8898403362936738 | will-manifold-markets-try-to-stop-u | 749.714019052 | {"NO": 150.0883430681538, "YES": 336.1976378798462} | Will Manifold Markets try to stop users from making extra accounts to shuffle money around by June 2022? | 1646151058377 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 335} | 0 | 4.712895232520932 | True | play | YES | public | 1645051377913 | Sam | Don't act like you haven't thought about it...
Currently, anyone can make multiple MM accounts (as long as they have multiple gmails), then bet on their own questions and resolve it how they see fit, presumably to stack that sweet sweet fake $$$. This doesn't really matter bc... fake money, but still.
Will MM try to c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 161.06825038112711, "YES": 458.8377126595885} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646151058377 | 100 | sam | 1645051377913 | 0 | 10 | 1715658656774 | 0 | 1646151039836 | 0.8898403362936738 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3005182679642411 | GISZkSXhhodXwIuYUzE6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3005182679642411 | scipapers-generational-inheritance | 2409.5870302258572 | {"NO": 1372.412969774143, "YES": 1016} | SciPapers : Generational inheritance of memory in an animal model. | 1645257540000 | rpPhNvA397UkhNUQsVFMQEKRtyV2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1373, "YES": 1016} | 0 | 4.635834505990109 | True | play | NO | public | 1645051785496 | Robert McIntyre | I'm experimenting with using prediction markets to find interesting new knowledge, or (conversely) to show that some kind of knowledge is difficult to find. Market resolves to YES if we find the knowledge I seek, NO otherwise. Note: I will ONLY consider papers mentioned in the comments as eligible for the purposes of t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1997.5506083882167, "YES": 1309.3177070291792} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645263849384 | 100 | RLMgold | 1645051785496 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1zo00WvcSPmsrxKW9c-ekFTEYJFpwd1r7TrV=s96-c | 10 | 1715657860918 | 0 | 1 | 1645243698523 | 0.3005182679642411 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27477857920396725 | 0Yjp2g6bQ3HK9ouX7q2w | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.27477857920396725 | will-manifold-markets-let-users-com | 158.4355393090061 | {"NO": 83.88029570102255, "YES": 35.68416498997138} | Will Manifold Markets let users comment on resolved markets by March 1, 2022? | 1645689540000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 32} | 0 | 4.963266842855882 | True | play | NO | public | 1645053541213 | Luna Nova | This market resolves to YES if users can comment on Resolved Markets by 11:59 PM on February 28th, GMT -8 (Pacific Standard Time).
Mar 8, 10:54am: Forgot about this, lol. Anyway, I don't seem to be able to comment on any resolved market, so this resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.82186635175158, "YES": 62.67540923596471} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1646765727670 | 100 | LunaNova | 1645053541213 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 10 | 1715656871767 | 0 | 1 | 0.27477857920396725 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9878583268402427 | v7x4KOIKD8D7lXkRNX9T | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9878583268402427 | will-masks-still-be-required-on-ord | 1578.436053782907 | {"NO": 142.2281435182847, "YES": 1053.335802698808} | Will masks still be required on ordinary passenger domestic flights in the United States on March 20th 2022? | 1647748800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 1070} | 0 | 4.656074102706667 | True | play | YES | public | 1645054219483 | Matthew Barnett | On August 20th 2021, the TSA announced that it would extend the mask mandate on airplanes until March 18th 2022. This deadline could, of course, be extended again.
Mask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplan... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 131.73841746733126, "YES": 1188.284700728863} | {"creatorFee": 5.022557848683708, "platformFee": 1.255639462170927, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648090134622 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645054219483 | 0 | 26 | 1715658842642 | 0 | 1 | 1646949324112 | 0.9878583268402427 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0459625896474036 | yWZ0mwymZY5k7x4USDu7 | {"NO": 247.04456999544516, "YES": 2872.605759013496} | 0 | will-alexei-navalny-ever-be-the-pre | 3365.886173656338 | {"NO": 276.93388640173873, "YES": 54.99009809468237} | Will Alexei Navalny ever be the President of Russia? | 1708144857678 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 280, "YES": 55} | 0 | 7.2018300263725115 | True | play | NO | public | 1645055621327 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves in a yes if Navalny becomes the President of Russia before 1.1.2050. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 320.1339185898595, "YES": 87.68391814495195} | {"creatorFee": 0.07733912400841544, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1708144857678 | 280 | Keepcalmandchill | 1708144858181 | 0 | 31 | 1650315041971 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662322051765}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513407}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXw... | ["politics-default", "world-default", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1708118230741 | 1708122292128 | False | 0 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47223439141747997 | j5aRM9x8VVpAaCFskUp4 | {"NO": 22.211488099983995, "YES": 634.9367222512938} | 0 | will-richard-hanania-be-on-the-joe | 2423.452643715864 | {"NO": 238, "YES": 521} | Will Richard Hanania be on the Joe Rogan Experience in 2022? | 1672559940000 | fOP9OVWrlXSpFMsoODOhF7qoG3W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 238, "YES": 521} | 0 | 3.8879277073597605 | True | play | NO | public | 1645056508354 | Richard Hanania | This market will resolve yes if Richard Hanania is a guest on the Joe Rogan Experience in an episode that is released in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 539.7031369192697, "YES": 533.6694126521586} | {"creatorFee": 10.192221235614605, "platformFee": 0.7251785690580803, "liquidityFee": 4.351071414348482} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672664816072 | 104.35107141434848 | RichardHanania | 1670781181051 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz9nqp46fl8Vrar15-73pvpcOmp8585PuUdEodH=s96-c | 21 | 1650314726040 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1670781180768 | 1646732280552 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1301625734664129 | F1U3AlDpiOfUtic0TMfG | {"NO": 100.87859558584769, "YES": 1024.0480895426235} | 0 | will-bosniaherzegovina-fall-apart-d | 1812.1227455171486 | {"NO": 676.4531257331937, "YES": 235} | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina fall apart during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 675, "YES": 235} | 0 | 5.39882825318727 | True | play | NO | public | 1645058146067 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves in "YES" if, two weeks after closing, Bosnia-Herzegovina can be said to have fallen apart (i.e. into smaller countries) during 2022. Otherwise, it resolves in "NO". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 826.3595029111789, "YES": 384.54986057005624} | {"creatorFee": 0.3456569043695489, "platformFee": 0.050402568039164035, "liquidityFee": 0.3024154082349842} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672537938534 | 140.302415408235 | Keepcalmandchill | 1671797935888 | 0 | 29 | 1650313865800 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478652}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929569}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 1671797935771 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09491213046177097 | NHbcTUHgF3IIrwIohQ9j | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09491213046177097 | will-the-closing-price-of-brent-cru | 341.791372705988 | {"NO": 132, "YES": 36.208627294011976} | Will the closing price of Brent Crude oil for February 17th be at or above $93? | 1645142340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 132, "YES": 36} | 0 | 4.874686408640143 | True | play | NO | public | 1645067645883 | David Glidden | Russia's threatening posture toward Ukraine has dominated oil markets for several weeks, with concerns that supply disruptions from the major producer in a tight global market could push oil prices to $100 a barrel. More here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-hold-steady-russia-ukraine-tensions-cool-2... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 160.02808959461584, "YES": 51.82170640849281} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645185556246 | 100 | dglid | 1645067645883 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 1715658041032 | 0 | 1 | 1645129127254 | 0.09491213046177097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022653778662876527 | qeC6sq2MXnMlpgo6nRqd | {"NO": 96.2552614144098, "YES": 613.8418058363018} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-announced-before-may-1 | 1540.150816570058 | {"NO": 1020.3797665961964, "YES": 120.46568211220574} | Will GPT-4 be announced before May 1st 2022? | 1651377600000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1020, "YES": 88} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645067699571 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before May 1st 2022, Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1127.8476228230409, "YES": 171.7275726928815} | {"creatorFee": 0.17387850516418707, "platformFee": 0.028979750860697845, "liquidityFee": 0.17387850516418707} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1651633282434 | 100.15862927979818 | MatthewBarnett | 1645067699571 | 0 | 31 | 1650314772301 | 0 | 1 | 0.003621467495989402 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | M9pyoEKJ51f4q4X6AFsw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | will-gonzaga-win-the-2022-ncaa-marc | 50 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | Will Gonzaga win the 2022 NCAA March Madness tournament? | 1649120400000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645068660152 | David Glidden | This market resolves to YES if Gonzaga wins the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball March Madness tournament scheduled to take place between March 15th and April 4th, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 46.09864424091016, "YES": 19.365304029371703} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645154162856 | 100 | dglid | 1645068660152 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 1715658001391 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400805}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | DaUuFGgM1cKuBz6OCdMQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-a-machine-learning-model-score | 200 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025? | 1645678740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.8377641951088215 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645071463661 | Matthew Barnett | From Hendrycks et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics pr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.42206334409067, "YES": 141.4220633440907} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645071632754 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645071463661 | 0 | 1 | 1715657788950 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 |
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