from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json import math import statistics from collections import defaultdict from dataclasses import dataclass from pathlib import Path from typing import Any, Protocol from .arena import ARENA_VERSION, Action, GameState, WAIT, redundant_agents, step from .arena_generation import GENERATOR_VERSION, generate_state from .arena_oracle import deterministic_policy, solve_joint_action from .arena_protocol import ( ARENA_PROMPT_VERSION, Broadcast, action_prompt, broadcast_prompt, encode_action, encode_broadcast, parse_action, parse_broadcast, ) from .arena_sft import oracle_broadcast from .arena_splits import FROZEN_EVAL_CASES, FROZEN_EVAL_MANIFEST_SHA256 from .providers import OpenAICompatibleProvider EVAL_VERSION = "arena-eval-v2" CONDITIONS = ("generated", "dropped", "reference", "shuffled") class ArenaModel(Protocol): name: str def respond(self, messages: list[dict[str, str]], oracle_target: str) -> str: ... @dataclass class OracleArenaModel: name: str = "oracle" def respond(self, messages: list[dict[str, str]], oracle_target: str) -> str: del messages return oracle_target @dataclass class OpenAIArenaModel: provider: OpenAICompatibleProvider name: str def respond(self, messages: list[dict[str, str]], oracle_target: str) -> str: del oracle_target return self.provider.generate(None, messages).text # type: ignore[arg-type] def _reference_broadcasts( state: GameState, reference: dict[str, Action] ) -> dict[str, Broadcast]: return { agent_id: oracle_broadcast(state, agent_id, reference[agent_id]) for agent_id in sorted(reference) } def _inbox(broadcasts: dict[str, Broadcast], receiver: str) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: return [ {"sender": sender, "broadcast": broadcasts[sender].to_dict()} for sender in sorted(broadcasts) if sender != receiver ] def evaluate_case( model: ArenaModel, seed: int, size: int, opponent_style: str, shuffled_broadcasts: dict[str, Broadcast], ) -> dict[str, Any]: state = generate_state(seed, size) opponent_actions = deterministic_policy(state, "RED", opponent_style) solution = solve_joint_action(state, "BLUE", opponent_actions) reference = dict(solution.canonical_assignment) reference_broadcasts = _reference_broadcasts(state, reference) generated: dict[str, Broadcast] = {} message_rows = [] for index, agent_id in enumerate(sorted(reference)): prompt, _ = broadcast_prompt(state, agent_id, seed + index) target = encode_broadcast(reference_broadcasts[agent_id]) raw = model.respond(prompt, target) parsed = parse_broadcast(raw, state, agent_id) value = parsed.value if parsed.valid else Broadcast((), None, 0) assert isinstance(value, Broadcast) generated[agent_id] = value message_rows.append( { "agent_id": agent_id, "valid": parsed.valid, "errors": list(parsed.errors), "raw_response": raw, } ) condition_broadcasts = { "generated": generated, "dropped": {agent_id: Broadcast((), None, 0) for agent_id in reference}, "reference": reference_broadcasts, "shuffled": shuffled_broadcasts, } condition_rows = [] semantic_by_agent: dict[str, list[Action | None]] = defaultdict(list) for condition in CONDITIONS: broadcasts = condition_broadcasts[condition] permutations = (0, 1, 2) if condition == "generated" else (0,) for permutation in permutations: selected: dict[str, Action] = {} strict_valid = 0 action_rows = [] for index, agent_id in enumerate(sorted(reference)): prompt, displayed = action_prompt( state, agent_id, _inbox(broadcasts, agent_id), seed + index + permutation ) target = encode_action(reference[agent_id], displayed) raw = model.respond(prompt, target) parsed = parse_action(raw, displayed) action = parsed.value if parsed.valid else WAIT assert isinstance(action, Action) selected[agent_id] = action strict_valid += int(parsed.valid) if condition == "generated": semantic_by_agent[agent_id].append(action if parsed.valid else None) action_rows.append( { "agent_id": agent_id, "valid": parsed.valid, "errors": list(parsed.errors), "selected_action": action.to_dict(), "raw_response": raw, } ) outcome = step(state, {**opponent_actions, **selected}) redundant = redundant_agents(state, {**opponent_actions, **selected}, "BLUE") environment_reward = outcome.rewards["BLUE"] strict_team = strict_valid == 4 regret = solution.reward - environment_reward condition_rows.append( { "condition": condition, "permutation": permutation, "strict_action_rate": strict_valid / 4, "strict_team_protocol": strict_team, "environment_reward": environment_reward, "oracle_reward": solution.reward, "regret": regret, "optimal_outcome": strict_team and regret <= 1e-9, "duplicate_targets": list(outcome.duplicate_targets["BLUE"]), "redundant_agents": list(redundant), "invalid_environment_actions": list(outcome.invalid_agents), "actions": action_rows, } ) order_consistent = all( len(actions) == 3 and actions[0] is not None and actions.count(actions[0]) == 3 for actions in semantic_by_agent.values() ) return { "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION, "arena_version": ARENA_VERSION, "generator_version": GENERATOR_VERSION, "prompt_version": ARENA_PROMPT_VERSION, "manifest_sha256": FROZEN_EVAL_MANIFEST_SHA256, "model": model.name, "seed": seed, "size": size, "opponent_style": opponent_style, "solver_joint_actions_explored": solution.explored, "solver_optimal_count": solution.optimal_count, "message_strict_rate": sum(row["valid"] for row in message_rows) / 4, "action_order_consistent": order_consistent, "messages": message_rows, "conditions": condition_rows, } def summarize(rows: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> dict[str, Any]: def mean_ci(values: list[float]) -> list[float]: mean = statistics.mean(values) if len(values) < 2: return [mean, mean] radius = 1.96 * statistics.stdev(values) / math.sqrt(len(values)) return [mean - radius, mean + radius] def wilson(values: list[bool]) -> list[float]: n = len(values) p = sum(values) / n z = 1.96 denominator = 1 + z * z / n center = (p + z * z / (2 * n)) / denominator radius = z * math.sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n + z * z / (4 * n * n)) / denominator return [center - radius, center + radius] main = [ condition for row in rows for condition in row["conditions"] if condition["permutation"] == 0 ] by_condition: dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]] = defaultdict(list) for row in main: by_condition[row["condition"]].append(row) conditions = {} for name, group in sorted(by_condition.items()): rewards = [float(item["environment_reward"]) for item in group] regrets = [float(item["regret"]) for item in group] optimal = [bool(item["optimal_outcome"]) for item in group] conditions[name] = { "strict_action_rate": statistics.mean(item["strict_action_rate"] for item in group), "optimal_outcome_rate": statistics.mean(optimal), "optimal_outcome_wilson_95": wilson(optimal), "mean_environment_reward": statistics.mean(rewards), "mean_environment_reward_95": mean_ci(rewards), "mean_oracle_regret": statistics.mean(regrets), "mean_oracle_regret_95": mean_ci(regrets), "nonredundant_joint_action_rate": statistics.mean(not item["redundant_agents"] for item in group), } generated = conditions["generated"] generated_lookup = { (row["seed"], row["size"], row["opponent_style"]): next( item for item in row["conditions"] if item["condition"] == "generated" and item["permutation"] == 0 ) for row in rows } slices = {} for label, keys in { "topology_size": sorted({str(row["size"]) for row in rows}), "opponent_style": sorted({row["opponent_style"] for row in rows}), }.items(): slices[label] = {} for key in keys: group = [ generated_lookup[(row["seed"], row["size"], row["opponent_style"])] for row in rows if str(row["size"]) == key if label == "topology_size" ] if label == "topology_size" else [ generated_lookup[(row["seed"], row["size"], row["opponent_style"])] for row in rows if row["opponent_style"] == key ] slices[label][key] = { "cases": len(group), "optimal_outcome_rate": statistics.mean(item["optimal_outcome"] for item in group), "mean_oracle_regret": statistics.mean(item["regret"] for item in group), } return { "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION, "arena_version": ARENA_VERSION, "manifest_sha256": FROZEN_EVAL_MANIFEST_SHA256, "model": rows[0]["model"], "num_cases": len(rows), "message_strict_rate": statistics.mean(row["message_strict_rate"] for row in rows), "action_order_consistency_rate": statistics.mean(row["action_order_consistent"] for row in rows), "conditions": conditions, "generated_slices": slices, "generated_minus_dropped_reward": generated["mean_environment_reward"] - conditions["dropped"]["mean_environment_reward"], "reference_message_headroom": conditions["reference"]["mean_environment_reward"] - generated["mean_environment_reward"], } def run(model: ArenaModel, output_dir: Path) -> dict[str, Any]: rows = [] for index, (seed, size, style) in enumerate(FROZEN_EVAL_CASES): shuffled_seed, shuffled_size, _ = FROZEN_EVAL_CASES[(index + 1) % len(FROZEN_EVAL_CASES)] shuffled_state = generate_state(shuffled_seed, shuffled_size) shuffled_reference = dict( solve_joint_action( shuffled_state, "BLUE", deterministic_policy(shuffled_state, "RED", style), ).canonical_assignment ) shuffled = _reference_broadcasts(shuffled_state, shuffled_reference) # Preserve receiver identities while substituting semantically unrelated # broadcasts from the next frozen case. remapped = { agent_id: shuffled[source] for agent_id, source in zip( sorted(agent.id for agent in generate_state(seed, size).agents.values() if agent.team == "BLUE"), sorted(shuffled), strict=True, ) } rows.append(evaluate_case(model, seed, size, style, remapped)) summary = summarize(rows) output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) (output_dir / "rows.jsonl").write_text( "".join(json.dumps(row, sort_keys=True) + "\n" for row in rows), encoding="utf-8" ) (output_dir / "summary.json").write_text( json.dumps(summary, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n", encoding="utf-8" ) return summary def main() -> None: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Run the frozen 4v4 arena evaluation.") parser.add_argument("--provider", choices=("oracle", "openai", "local-hf"), default="oracle") parser.add_argument("--model", default="oracle") parser.add_argument("--adapter", default=None) parser.add_argument("--base-url", default="http://127.0.0.1:8080/v1") parser.add_argument("--api-key", default="local") parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=Path("results/arena_oracle")) args = parser.parse_args() if args.provider == "oracle": model: ArenaModel = OracleArenaModel() elif args.provider == "openai": provider = OpenAICompatibleProvider( args.base_url, args.model, api_key=args.api_key, temperature=0.0, max_tokens=192 ) model = OpenAIArenaModel(provider, args.model) else: from .local_hf import LocalHFArenaModel model = LocalHFArenaModel(args.model, args.adapter) print(json.dumps(run(model, args.output_dir), indent=2, sort_keys=True)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()