Refresh predictions dataset files

README.md

@@ -1,100 +1,86 @@
----
-license: cc0-1.0
-tags:
-- weather
-- aarhus
-- denmark
-- predictions
-- forecast
-- machine-learning
----
-
-# DMI Aarhus Predictions
-
-Live ML-vejrprognoser for Aarhus, Danmark. Indeholder både aktuelle 48-timers predictions og verificeret historik.
-
-## Filer
-
-| Fil | Beskrivelse | Opdateret af |
-|-----|-------------|--------------|
-| `predictions_latest.parquet` | Nuværende 48-timers predictions | dmi-collector |
-| `frontend_snapshot.json` | Frontend-optimeret JSON snapshot | dmi-collector |
-
-## Opdateringsfrekvens
-
-| Fil | Frekvens | Trigger |
-|-----|----------|---------|
-| `predictions_latest.parquet` | Hver 3. time | `generate_predictions()` scheduler |
-| `predictions_latest.parquet` | Hver time | `verify_predictions()` tilføjer actuals |
-| `frontend_snapshot.json` | Efter hver ændring | Automatisk ved upload |
-
-## Schema: predictions_latest.parquet
-
-| Kolonne | Type | Beskrivelse |
-|---------|------|-------------|
-| `target_timestamp` | datetime | Tidspunkt der forudsiges |
-| `reference_time` | datetime | Hvornår forecast blev genereret |
-| `lead_time_hours` | int | Timer mellem reference og target |
-| `lead_bucket` | string | 1-6, 7-12, 13-24, 25-48 |
-| `prediction_made_at` | datetime | Hvornår prediction blev lavet |
-| `city` | string | Altid "aarhus" |
-| `verified` | bool | Om prediction er verificeret |
-| `dmi_temperature_2m_pred` | float | DMI temperatur prognose |
-| `dmi_windspeed_10m_pred` | float | DMI vindhastighed prognose |
-| `dmi_windgusts_10m_pred` | float | DMI vindstød prognose |
-| `dmi_precipitation_probability_pred` | float | DMI regnsandsynlighed |
-| `dmi_precipitation_pred` | float | DMI regnmængde |
-| `ml_temp` | float | ML temperatur prediction |
-| `ml_wind_speed` | float | ML vindhastighed prediction |
-| `ml_wind_gust` | float | ML vindstød prediction |
-| `ml_rain_prob` | float | ML regnsandsynlighed (0-1) |
-| `ml_rain_amount` | float | ML regnmængde |
-| `actual_temp` | float | Observeret temperatur (hvis verificeret) |
-| `actual_wind_speed` | float | Observeret vindhastighed (hvis verificeret) |
-| `actual_wind_gust` | float | Observeret vindstød (hvis verificeret) |
-| `actual_precipitation` | float | Observeret nedbør (hvis verificeret) |
-
-## Schema: frontend_snapshot.json
-
-```json
-{
-  "location": { "name": "Aarhus", "timezone": "Europe/Copenhagen" },
-  "generatedAt": "2026-03-10T22:00:00+01:00",
-  "targetLabels": { "temperature": "Temperatur", ... },
-  "explanations": { "forecast": "...", "performance": "...", "sources": "..." },
-  "targetStatus": { "temperature": { "hasActiveModel": true, ... }, ... },
-  "current": { "temp": 5.2, "windSpeed": 3.1, ... },
-  "forecast": [ { "timestamp": "...", "effectiveTemp": 5.2, ... }, ... ],
-  "history": { "temperature": [...], "wind": [...], "rain": [...] },
-  "verification": { "rmseDmi": 1.2, "rmseMl": 0.9, "winRate": 65.3, ... },
-  "leadBuckets": [ { "bucket": "1-6", "improvementPct": 12.5, ... }, ... ],
-  "featureImportance": [ { "feature": "dmi_temperature_2m_pred", "importance": 0.45 }, ... ],
-  "modelInfo": { "trainedAt": "...", "trainingSamples": 1922, ... },
-  "alerts": [ { "type": "wind", "severity": "warning", ... }, ... ]
-}
-```
-
-## Brug
-
-Dette dataset bruges af:
-- **dmi-vs-ml-dashboard**: Visualiserer live predictions og historik
-- **Vercel Frontend**: Læser `frontend_snapshot.json` direkte
-
-## Verificering
-
-Predictions verificeres automatisk:
-- Hver time: Nye actuals matcher med gamle predictions
-- Ved startup: Hvis forsinket, catch-up på manglende verificeringer
-
-## Lokation
-
-Aarhus, Danmark (56.1567°N, 10.2108°E)
-
-## Model System
-
-Predictions genereres ved at kombinere:
-1. Rå DMI forecast fra Open-Meteo
-2. ML-korrektioner fra aktive modeller (hvis tilgængelige)
-3. Fallback til DMI hvis ingen aktiv ML-model
-
-Se `dmi-aarhus-weather-data` for model detaljer.
+---
+license: cc-by-4.0
+tags:
+- weather
+- aarhus
+- denmark
+- predictions
+- forecast
+- machine-learning
+---
+
+# DMI Aarhus Predictions
+
+Prediction and frontend contract dataset for the Aarhus weather pipeline. Maintained by `Ciroc0`.
+
+## Primary files
+
+| File | Purpose | Produced by |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `predictions_latest.parquet` | Current future + verified prediction store | `dmi-collector` |
+| `frontend_snapshot.json` | Primary integration contract for the Vercel frontend | `dmi-collector` |
+
+## Compatibility files
+
+| File | Status | Notes |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `predictions.parquet` | Legacy | Still read by compatibility code |
+| `history_snapshot.json` | Legacy | Only used by older frontend fallback logic |
+
+## Update pattern
+
+- `predictions_latest.parquet` is rewritten on scheduled prediction runs
+- verification updates actual columns once the target hour is in the past
+- `frontend_snapshot.json` is regenerated after prediction and verification writes
+
+## Schema highlights for `predictions_latest.parquet`
+
+- `target_timestamp`
+- `reference_time`
+- `lead_time_hours`
+- `lead_bucket`
+- `prediction_made_at`
+- `city`
+- `verified`
+- `dmi_temperature_2m_pred`
+- `dmi_windspeed_10m_pred`
+- `dmi_windgusts_10m_pred`
+- `dmi_precipitation_probability_pred`
+- `dmi_precipitation_pred`
+- `ml_temp`
+- `ml_wind_speed`
+- `ml_wind_gust`
+- `ml_rain_prob`
+- `ml_rain_amount`
+- `actual_temp`
+- `actual_wind_speed`
+- `actual_wind_gust`
+- `actual_precipitation`
+- `actual_rain_event`
+- `actual_rain_amount`
+
+## Snapshot contract
+
+`frontend_snapshot.json` is the main public-facing contract and contains:
+
+- location metadata
+- generated timestamp
+- target labels and explanations
+- current weather block
+- 48-hour forecast rows
+- historical backtest payload
+- verification metrics
+- lead-bucket summary
+- feature importance
+- model info
+- alert rows
+
+## Attribution
+
+This dataset is released under `CC BY 4.0`.
+
+Please preserve attribution to:
+
+- `Ciroc0`
+- `Open-Meteo - https://open-meteo.com`
+- `DMI / DMI HARMONIE`