kyrexis: add market/kyrexis-market-plan.md

market/kyrexis-market-plan.md

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+# KYREXIS AI — Market Plan
+
+Version 1.0 · 2026-08-08 · Companion to `market/market_plan.md` (Sovereign)
+
+> Positioning honesty: KyrexisAI ships as a **quantum-infused intelligence
+> module** — the "quantum" layer is a deterministic simulation engine
+> (gates, entanglement, tomography), not a QPU. Marketing must say
+> "quantum-inspired", never imply real quantum hardware. This plan is a
+> planning artifact, not a verified market forecast.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Market segments
+
+### Segment A — Quantum-inspired AI platform developers
+Developers and platform teams evaluating "quantum-enhanced AI" frameworks
+(Qiskit-adjacent, quantum-ML libraries) who want a runnable module, not a
+hardware dependency. Pain: quantum-ML demos require QPU access or heavy
+simulators; KyrexisAI runs anywhere with numpy. It demos the full pipeline
+— quantum compute simulation, entanglement, tomography, Bell tests,
+progression planning — on a laptop.
+
+### Segment B — Sovereign ecosystem adopters
+Existing users of the DeepSeek-V4 Sovereign Orchestrator (self-hosting AI
+developers, homelab operators, privacy-first platform teams). KyrexisAI is
+an additive module: same repo, same API style, guarded router, registry
+entry. Pain: extending a monorepo costs integration effort; KyrexisAI
+ships pre-integrated (module YAML + registry + tests + routes).
+
+### Segment C — Conversational / messenger AI builders
+Teams building Messenger (or chat) AI characters who want a backend that
+answers with "state" — fidelity, awakening, progression — rather than a
+blank chatbot. Pain: orchestration + messaging integration + telemetry in
+one importable module.
+
+### Segment D — Education & demo labs (latent)
+University courses and workshops teaching entanglement math, Bell
+inequalities, and density-matrix tomography. KyrexisAI's particle
+detector is a live, visualizable implementation of CHSH tests without
+lab hardware. Low revenue, high narrative value.
+
+## 2. TAM / SAM / SOM
+
+| Layer | A — Devs | B — Sovereign | C — Messaging | D — Edu | Total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **TAM** | $1.2B | $600M | $400M | $150M | ~$2.35B |
+| **SAM** | $180M | $105M | $60M | $20M | ~$365M |
+| **SOM (3-yr)** | $2.4M | $4.5M | $1.8M | $0.3M | **~$9.0M/yr run-rate** |
+
+### Reasoning
+
+**Segment A:** Quantum-computing software + quantum-ML tooling markets are
+projected to grow ~25–35% CAGR this decade; the software slice that runs
+without hardware is estimated at ~$1.2B TAM. SAM = teams that adopt a
+pure-Python module (~15%, $180M). SOM = 8K developer downloads→paid
+(mixed open/paid tier) at ~$300/yr blended = $2.4M by Year 3.
+
+**Segment B:** Reuses the Sovereign market plan's developer TAM ($600M,
+SAM $105M). SOM: 20% of the Sovereign SOM base adopts KyrexisAI as a
+paid add-on → $4.5M (aligned with the Sovereign plan's $25.3M total).
+
+**Segment C:** Messenger/chatbot backend infrastructure ≈ $400M TAM;
+SAM $60M (self-hostable). SOM: 6K bot operators × $300/yr = $1.8M.
+
+**Segment D:** Course licenses, $20M SAM; $0.3M SOM (institutional).
+
+Combined SOM ≈ **$9.0M annual run-rate by Year 3** — incremental to the
+Sovereign $25.3M, driven by the same channels.
+
+## 3. Channels (4)
+
+1. **Open-source distribution** — GitHub monorepo (module shipped inside
+   `deepseek-v4-sovereign`) + HuggingFace Space demo with one-click
+   `/api/v1/kyrexis/initialize` + live dashboard.
+2. **Developer communities** — r/QuantumComputing, r/LocalLLaMA, Hacker
+   News, X. Content: "CHSH Bell test in 30 lines", "entanglement
+   tomography without a QPU", progression-scaling explainers.
+3. **Messenger/AI builder ecosystems** — Meta Messenger developer
+   forums, bot builder communities, DevPost. Demo: Messenger AI
+   character backed by KyrexisAI state.
+4. **Sovereign ecosystem cross-sell** — READMEs, release notes, release
+   assets (v0.4.0+), existing market/pitch channels.
+
+## 4. Three-phase launch (with Sovereign v0.4.0)
+
+| Phase | Timing | Objective | Key metrics |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| **Pre-launch** | T-14 → T-1 | Module live in repo; docs + demo Space ready; waitlist | Issue/star delta, Space visits, waitlist size |
+| **Launch day** | T-0 (v0.4.0 tag) | Release notes + demo + community posts | Downloads, /initialize calls, conversions |
+| **Post-launch** | T+1 → T+30 | Tutorials, benchmark posts, enterprise pilots | Tutorial completions, paid conversions, pilot count |
+
+## 5. Benchmarks
+
+| Metric | Good | Great |
+|---|---|---|
+| Demo Space → repo conversion | 5% | 15% |
+| Download → paid conversion | 1% | 3% |
+| /initialize calls per week | 1K | 10K |
+| Community posts (T+30) | 5 | 20 |
+| Enterprise pilot starts (Q1) | 2 | 8 |
+
+## 6. Risks and mitigations
+
+| Risk | Mitigation |
+|---|---|
+| "Quantum-washing" perception (claims exceed reality) | Every surface says quantum-inspired/simulated; docs separate spec anchors from honest math |
+| Spec headline numbers inconsistent (368× vs 1.335²⁰≈323×) | Engine returns honest math; headline retained as parameter; tests lock both |
+| Messenger API token friction | Local mode works with zero config; token via env only |
+| Overshadowed inside Sovereign monorepo | Dedicated module README, docs, skills, market plan, pitch one-pager |
+| Real-QPU competitors arrive | Positioning = simulation + education + orchestration, not hardware parity |