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{
"scenario_id": "zodiac_single",
"case_id": "zodiac_1968",
"label": "Single lone offender",
"plausibility": 0.55,
"rationale": "Cipher-solver analyses suggest one author; identity never matched."
},
{
"scenario_id": "zodiac_collaborator",
"case_id": "zodiac_1968",
"label": "Offender with accomplice",
"plausibility": 0.2,
"rationale": "Multiple simultaneous attacks would need a partner; unproven."
},
{
"scenario_id": "jfk_lone_gunman",
"case_id": "jfk_1963",
"label": "Lone gunman (Oswald)",
"plausibility": 0.35,
"rationale": "Warren Commission conclusion; physics of the shots contested."
},
{
"scenario_id": "jfk_second_gunman",
"case_id": "jfk_1963",
"label": "Second gunman conspiracy",
"plausibility": 0.55,
"rationale": "HSCA 'high probability of a second gunman'; records still declassifying."
},
{
"scenario_id": "jfk_cover_up",
"case_id": "jfk_1963",
"label": "Official narrative cover-up",
"plausibility": 0.4,
"rationale": "Decades of declassification gaps sustain the theory; no direct proof."
},
{
"scenario_id": "jonbenet_family",
"case_id": "jonbenet_1996",
"label": "Family member intruder",
"plausibility": 0.45,
"rationale": "Ransom-note oddities and evidence-handling failures; touch-DNA cleared family."
},
{
"scenario_id": "jonbenet_intruder",
"case_id": "jonbenet_1996",
"label": "Unknown intruder",
"plausibility": 0.4,
"rationale": "Unmatched DNA sample remains unexplained; case officially open."
},
{
"scenario_id": "mh370_pilot",
"case_id": "mh370_2014",
"label": "Pilot-directed diversion",
"plausibility": 0.45,
"rationale": "Zaharie's home simulator; controlled turn pattern; no proof."
},
{
"scenario_id": "mh370_mechanical",
"case_id": "mh370_2014",
"label": "Catastrophic mechanical failure",
"plausibility": 0.3,
"rationale": "No distress call; the sharp turn argues against simple failure."
},
{
"scenario_id": "sodder_abduction",
"case_id": "sodder_children_1945",
"label": "Children abducted, not burned",
"plausibility": 0.55,
"rationale": "No bones in the ashes; unmatched vertebra; decades of sighting leads."
},
{
"scenario_id": "sodder_fire",
"case_id": "sodder_children_1945",
"label": "Consumed by the fire",
"plausibility": 0.3,
"rationale": "Fire intensity could destroy remains; the vertebra contradicts it."
},
{
"scenario_id": "dyatlov_avalanche",
"case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959",
"label": "Avalanche / snow slab",
"plausibility": 0.5,
"rationale": "2021 Russian re-investigation; critics note trauma and radiation unexplained."
},
{
"scenario_id": "dyatlov_military",
"case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959",
"label": "Military weapons test",
"plausibility": 0.25,
"rationale": "Radiation on clothing + area secrecy; no official evidence."
},
{
"scenario_id": "lasvegas_lone",
"case_id": "las_vegas_2017",
"label": "Lone-wolf with no motive",
"plausibility": 0.6,
"rationale": "FBI found no manifesto, no links, no co-conspirators."
},
{
"scenario_id": "lasvegas_unexplained",
"case_id": "las_vegas_2017",
"label": "Unknown motivating factor",
"plausibility": 0.4,
"rationale": "The largest unanswered question in modern American mass-crime."
}
] |