[
  {
    "scenario_id": "zodiac_single",
    "case_id": "zodiac_1968",
    "label": "Single lone offender",
    "plausibility": 0.55,
    "rationale": "Cipher-solver analyses suggest one author; identity never matched."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "zodiac_collaborator",
    "case_id": "zodiac_1968",
    "label": "Offender with accomplice",
    "plausibility": 0.2,
    "rationale": "Multiple simultaneous attacks would need a partner; unproven."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "jfk_lone_gunman",
    "case_id": "jfk_1963",
    "label": "Lone gunman (Oswald)",
    "plausibility": 0.35,
    "rationale": "Warren Commission conclusion; physics of the shots contested."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "jfk_second_gunman",
    "case_id": "jfk_1963",
    "label": "Second gunman conspiracy",
    "plausibility": 0.55,
    "rationale": "HSCA 'high probability of a second gunman'; records still declassifying."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "jfk_cover_up",
    "case_id": "jfk_1963",
    "label": "Official narrative cover-up",
    "plausibility": 0.4,
    "rationale": "Decades of declassification gaps sustain the theory; no direct proof."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "jonbenet_family",
    "case_id": "jonbenet_1996",
    "label": "Family member intruder",
    "plausibility": 0.45,
    "rationale": "Ransom-note oddities and evidence-handling failures; touch-DNA cleared family."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "jonbenet_intruder",
    "case_id": "jonbenet_1996",
    "label": "Unknown intruder",
    "plausibility": 0.4,
    "rationale": "Unmatched DNA sample remains unexplained; case officially open."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "mh370_pilot",
    "case_id": "mh370_2014",
    "label": "Pilot-directed diversion",
    "plausibility": 0.45,
    "rationale": "Zaharie's home simulator; controlled turn pattern; no proof."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "mh370_mechanical",
    "case_id": "mh370_2014",
    "label": "Catastrophic mechanical failure",
    "plausibility": 0.3,
    "rationale": "No distress call; the sharp turn argues against simple failure."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "sodder_abduction",
    "case_id": "sodder_children_1945",
    "label": "Children abducted, not burned",
    "plausibility": 0.55,
    "rationale": "No bones in the ashes; unmatched vertebra; decades of sighting leads."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "sodder_fire",
    "case_id": "sodder_children_1945",
    "label": "Consumed by the fire",
    "plausibility": 0.3,
    "rationale": "Fire intensity could destroy remains; the vertebra contradicts it."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "dyatlov_avalanche",
    "case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959",
    "label": "Avalanche / snow slab",
    "plausibility": 0.5,
    "rationale": "2021 Russian re-investigation; critics note trauma and radiation unexplained."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "dyatlov_military",
    "case_id": "dyatlov_pass_1959",
    "label": "Military weapons test",
    "plausibility": 0.25,
    "rationale": "Radiation on clothing + area secrecy; no official evidence."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "lasvegas_lone",
    "case_id": "las_vegas_2017",
    "label": "Lone-wolf with no motive",
    "plausibility": 0.6,
    "rationale": "FBI found no manifesto, no links, no co-conspirators."
  },
  {
    "scenario_id": "lasvegas_unexplained",
    "case_id": "las_vegas_2017",
    "label": "Unknown motivating factor",
    "plausibility": 0.4,
    "rationale": "The largest unanswered question in modern American mass-crime."
  }
]