Update README.md
Browse files
README.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ language:
|
|
| 16 |
|
| 17 |
This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
|
| 18 |
|
| 19 |
-
- `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains
|
| 20 |
-
- `forecastbench_single_questions_with_human_2024-07-21`:
|
| 21 |
|
| 22 |
## Dataset Structure
|
| 23 |
|
|
@@ -28,8 +28,8 @@ Each entry in the dataset is a JSON object with the following fields:
|
|
| 28 |
- `background`: Additional context or background information.
|
| 29 |
- `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
|
| 30 |
- `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
|
| 31 |
-
- `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability
|
| 32 |
-
- `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability
|
| 33 |
|
| 34 |
## Usage
|
| 35 |
|
|
@@ -56,13 +56,12 @@ If you use this dataset, please cite the original ForecastBench project and prov
|
|
| 56 |
## Citation
|
| 57 |
|
| 58 |
```
|
| 59 |
-
@
|
| 60 |
-
|
| 61 |
-
|
| 62 |
-
|
| 63 |
-
|
| 64 |
-
|
| 65 |
-
howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets}}
|
| 66 |
}
|
| 67 |
```
|
| 68 |
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
|
| 17 |
This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
|
| 18 |
|
| 19 |
+
- `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
|
| 20 |
+
- `forecastbench_single_questions_with_human_2024-07-21`: Contains 473 questions with resolved real-world outcomes, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.
|
| 21 |
|
| 22 |
## Dataset Structure
|
| 23 |
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
- `background`: Additional context or background information.
|
| 29 |
- `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
|
| 30 |
- `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
|
| 31 |
+
- `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
|
| 32 |
+
- `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster human group.
|
| 33 |
|
| 34 |
## Usage
|
| 35 |
|
|
|
|
| 56 |
## Citation
|
| 57 |
|
| 58 |
```
|
| 59 |
+
@inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
|
| 60 |
+
title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
|
| 61 |
+
author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
|
| 62 |
+
year={2025},
|
| 63 |
+
booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
|
| 64 |
+
url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
|
|
|
|
| 65 |
}
|
| 66 |
```
|
| 67 |
|