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  This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
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- - `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains 500 binary forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
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- - `forecastbench_single_questions_with_human_2024-07-21`: The same 500 questions, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.
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  ## Dataset Structure
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  - `background`: Additional context or background information.
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  - `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
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  - `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
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- - `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability from the public group.
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- - `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability from the superforecaster group.
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  ## Usage
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  ## Citation
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  ```
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- @misc{forecastbench2023,
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- author = {Forecasting Research Team},
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- title = {ForecastBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Forecasting},
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- year = {2023},
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- publisher = {GitHub},
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- journal = {GitHub repository},
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- howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets}}
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  }
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  ```
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  This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
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+ - `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
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+ - `forecastbench_single_questions_with_human_2024-07-21`: Contains 473 questions with resolved real-world outcomes, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.
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  ## Dataset Structure
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  - `background`: Additional context or background information.
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  - `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
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  - `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
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+ - `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
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+ - `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster human group.
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  ## Usage
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  ## Citation
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  ```
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+ @inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
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+ title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
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+ author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
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+ year={2025},
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+ booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
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+ url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
 
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  }
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  ```
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