---
license: cc-by-4.0
tags:
  - electricity
  - energy
  - power-markets
  - weather
  - nordic
  - time-series
  - forecasting
pretty_name: Power Price Forecasting Inputs (Nordics + NL)
---

# Power Price Forecasting Inputs — Nordics + Netherlands

Every input behind the price-forecast models at
[elpriser.org](https://elpriser.org): weather, prices, hydro reservoirs and
interconnector capacity, for 13 bidding zones.

Models trained on this data:
[nordic-price-forecast](https://huggingface.co/Elpriser/nordic-price-forecast) (13 zones)
and [denmark-price-forecast](https://huggingface.co/Elpriser/denmark-price-forecast)
(DK1/DK2, higher resolution).

## The part that is hard to get elsewhere

`weather_forecast_as_issued/` holds the weather forecast **as it looked N days
before the delivery hour**, for N = 1 to 7 — not what the weather turned out
to be.

This matters more than it sounds. Train a price model on *actual* weather and
serve it a *forecast* at inference time, and the model has never seen the
noisier input it must actually work with. It will look strong in backtest and
underperform in production, with the gap widening at longer horizons — exactly
where a multi-day forecast earns its keep. Derived from Open-Meteo's
previous-runs API, which only covers 2024-03-15 onward.

`weather_actual/` holds observed weather over a longer window, for fitting
weather-to-production relationships where using actuals is legitimate (a
static physical mapping, fed forecast weather at both train and serve time).

## Contents

| Path | What it is | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| `weather_forecast_as_issued/{zone}.parquet` | Wind 100m, direct radiation, temperature, precipitation — each at leads of 1-7 days. One representative point per bidding zone | 2024-03-15 → present, hourly |
| `weather_actual/{zone}.parquet` | Same four variables, observed | 2022-01-01 → present, hourly |
| `weather_denmark_highres/` | 14 points for the Denmark-only model: offshore wind clusters (Horns Rev, Anholt, Rødsand), German wind north and solar south, plus neighbouring zones | as above |
| `market/prices_hourly_13zones.parquet` | Day-ahead prices, EUR/MWh, all 13 zones from one source so no currency boundary | 2024-01-01 → present, hourly |
| `market/hydro_reservoir_weekly.parquet` | Reservoir energy content, 10 hydro zones. The driver behind Nordic price levels — producers hold water back when reservoirs are low | 2022 → present, weekly |
| `market/transfer_capacity_daily.parquet` | Month-ahead forecast transfer capacity per border and direction, for Denmark's six interconnectors | 2024-03 → present, daily |
| `training_dataset_nordic.parquet` | The assembled, leakage-guarded training set: one row per (zone, hour, horizon 2-9), 30 features | 2.1M rows |

## Zones

DK1, DK2 · NO1-NO5 · SE1-SE4 · FI · NL

## Leakage discipline in the training set

If you use `training_dataset_nordic.parquet` directly, the rules already
applied are:

- one row per (zone, target hour, forecast horizon h = 2..9)
- price lag `k` is populated **only when `k >= h-1`** — at h=5 you do not yet
  know yesterday's price, and filling it would leak
- `level_30d` covers the 30 days ending at the last *known* day, not the 30
  before the target
- weather comes from the as-issued archive at lead `min(h, 7)`
- reservoir readings are lagged 14 days, deliberately more conservative than
  ENTSO-E's real weekly publication lag

## Sources & license

CC BY 4.0. Prices, reservoir levels and transfer capacity: ENTSO-E
Transparency Platform. Weather: [Open-Meteo](https://open-meteo.com) (free for
commercial and non-commercial use with attribution). Collection code:
[elpriser.org on GitHub](https://github.com/x2q/elpriser.org),
`scripts/forecast_model/`.