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{"message": {"transcript": [{"chunks": [{"end": 0.52, "start": 0.0, "text": "Okay,"}, {"end": 1.28, "start": 0.52, "text": "hello."}, {"end": 2.56, "start": 1.28, "text": "Welcome"}, {"end": 2.6, "start": 2.56, "text": "to"}, {"end": 2.96, "start": 2.6, "text": "our"}, {"end": 3.8, "start": 2.96, "text": "session"}, {"end": 4.16, "start": 3.8, "text": "on"}, {"end": 4.84, "start": 4.16, "text": "computational"}, {"end": 5.24, "start": 4.84, "text": "social"}, {"end": 5.88, "start": 5.24, "text": "choice"}, {"end": 6.12, "start": 5.88, "text": "and"}, {"end": 6.6, "start": 6.12, "text": "redrawing"}, {"end": 7.88, "start": 6.6, "text": "boundaries."}, {"end": 8.4, "start": 7.88, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 8.4, "text": "excited"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 9.12, "text": "to"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 9.12, "text": "kick"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 9.12, "text": "things"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 9.12, "text": "off"}, {"end": 9.12, "start": 9.12, "text": "with"}, {"end": 9.4, "start": 9.12, "text": "Daniel"}, {"end": 9.84, "start": 9.4, "text": "Halpern."}, {"end": 10.16, "start": 9.84, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 10.92, "start": 10.16, "text": "going"}, {"end": 10.96, "start": 10.92, "text": "to"}, {"end": 11.76, "start": 10.96, "text": "talk"}, {"end": 12.2, "start": 11.76, "text": "about"}, {"end": 12.36, "start": 12.2, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 13.0, "start": 12.36, "text": "democracy,"}, {"end": 13.44, "start": 13.0, "text": "so"}, {"end": 13.44, "start": 13.44, "text": "I"}, {"end": 13.48, "start": 13.44, "text": "will"}, {"end": 14.6, "start": 13.48, "text": "turn"}, {"end": 14.72, "start": 14.6, "text": "over"}, {"end": 14.72, "start": 14.72, "text": "the"}, {"end": 15.0, "start": 14.72, "text": "floor"}, {"end": 15.0, "start": 15.0, "text": "to"}, {"end": 15.4, "start": 15.0, "text": "Daniel."}, {"end": 15.56, "start": 15.4, "text": "Thank"}, {"end": 15.88, "start": 15.56, "text": "you."}, {"end": 16.04, "start": 15.88, "text": "Thank"}, {"end": 16.16, "start": 16.04, "text": "you"}, {"end": 16.76, "start": 16.16, "text": "for"}, {"end": 16.88, "start": 16.76, "text": "the"}, {"end": 17.96, "start": 16.88, "text": "introduction."}, {"end": 18.56, "start": 17.96, "text": "My"}, {"end": 18.92, "start": 18.56, "text": "name"}, {"end": 19.12, "start": 18.92, "text": "is"}, {"end": 19.44, "start": 19.12, "text": "Daniel"}, {"end": 20.4, "start": 19.44, "text": "Halpern."}, {"end": 20.76, "start": 20.4, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 20.84, "start": 20.76, "text": "a"}, {"end": 21.36, "start": 20.84, "text": "PhD"}, {"end": 21.84, "start": 21.36, "text": "student"}, {"end": 21.96, "start": 21.84, "text": "at"}, {"end": 22.72, "start": 21.96, "text": "Harvard,"}, {"end": 23.2, "start": 22.72, "text": "and"}, {"end": 23.68, "start": 23.2, "text": "today"}, {"end": 23.84, "start": 23.68, "text": "I'll"}, {"end": 23.84, "start": 23.84, "text": "be"}, {"end": 23.96, "start": 23.84, "text": "talking"}, {"end": 24.12, "start": 23.96, "text": "about"}, {"end": 24.32, "start": 24.12, "text": "some"}, {"end": 24.56, "start": 24.32, "text": "joint"}, {"end": 25.24, "start": 24.56, "text": "work"}, {"end": 25.64, "start": 25.24, "text": "with"}, {"end": 26.0, "start": 25.64, "text": "Manol"}, {"end": 26.52, "start": 26.0, "text": "Revell,"}, {"end": 26.76, "start": 26.52, "text": "Adam"}, {"end": 27.4, "start": 26.76, "text": "Barinsky,"}, {"end": 27.56, "start": 27.4, "text": "and"}, {"end": 27.8, "start": 27.56, "text": "Ali"}, {"end": 29.04, "start": 27.8, "text": "Jababai."}, {"end": 29.16, "start": 29.04, "text": "In"}, {"end": 29.6, "start": 29.16, "text": "particular,"}, {"end": 29.6, "start": 29.6, "text": "we'll"}, {"end": 29.6, "start": 29.6, "text": "be"}, {"end": 29.68, "start": 29.6, "text": "talking"}, {"end": 29.96, "start": 29.68, "text": "about"}], "text": " Okay, hello. Welcome to our session on computational social choice and redrawing boundaries. I'm excited to kick things off with Daniel Halpern. I'm going to talk about liquid democracy, so I will turn over the floor to Daniel. Thank you. Thank you for the introduction. My name is Daniel Halpern. I'm a PhD student at Harvard, and today I'll be talking about some joint work with Manol Revell, Adam Barinsky, and Ali Jababai. In particular, we'll be talking about"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 30.16, "start": 30.0, "text": "about"}, {"end": 30.52, "start": 30.16, "text": "some"}, {"end": 31.04, "start": 30.52, "text": "new"}, {"end": 31.64, "start": 31.04, "text": "empirical"}, {"end": 32.12, "start": 31.64, "text": "results"}, {"end": 32.12, "start": 32.12, "text": "on"}, {"end": 32.2, "start": 32.12, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 32.56, "start": 32.2, "text": "democracy."}, {"end": 32.64, "start": 32.56, "text": "And"}, {"end": 32.72, "start": 32.64, "text": "I"}, {"end": 32.84, "start": 32.72, "text": "really"}, {"end": 33.0, "start": 32.84, "text": "want"}, {"end": 33.36, "start": 33.0, "text": "to"}, {"end": 33.52, "start": 33.36, "text": "give"}, {"end": 34.0, "start": 33.52, "text": "a"}, {"end": 34.36, "start": 34.0, "text": "lot"}, {"end": 34.56, "start": 34.36, "text": "of"}, {"end": 34.64, "start": 34.56, "text": "credit"}, {"end": 34.88, "start": 34.64, "text": "to"}, {"end": 35.2, "start": 34.88, "text": "Mano"}, {"end": 35.6, "start": 35.2, "text": "here."}, {"end": 35.8, "start": 35.6, "text": "We've"}, {"end": 36.0, "start": 35.8, "text": "done"}, {"end": 36.2, "start": 36.0, "text": "some"}, {"end": 37.2, "start": 36.2, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 37.32, "start": 37.2, "text": "work"}, {"end": 37.32, "start": 37.32, "text": "on"}, {"end": 37.64, "start": 37.32, "text": "this"}, {"end": 37.72, "start": 37.64, "text": "before,"}, {"end": 37.76, "start": 37.72, "text": "but"}, {"end": 37.84, "start": 37.76, "text": "she"}, {"end": 38.08, "start": 37.84, "text": "was"}, {"end": 38.480000000000004, "start": 38.08, "text": "really"}, {"end": 38.8, "start": 38.480000000000004, "text": "the"}, {"end": 39.0, "start": 38.8, "text": "leader"}, {"end": 39.04, "start": 39.0, "text": "of"}, {"end": 39.16, "start": 39.04, "text": "these"}, {"end": 39.72, "start": 39.16, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 39.96, "start": 39.72, "text": "and"}, {"end": 40.2, "start": 39.96, "text": "unfortunately"}, {"end": 40.36, "start": 40.2, "text": "couldn't"}, {"end": 40.519999999999996, "start": 40.36, "text": "make"}, {"end": 40.56, "start": 40.519999999999996, "text": "it"}, {"end": 42.32, "start": 40.56, "text": "today."}, {"end": 42.6, "start": 42.32, "text": "Anyway,"}, {"end": 43.04, "start": 42.6, "text": "so"}, {"end": 43.12, "start": 43.04, "text": "what"}, {"end": 43.92, "start": 43.12, "text": "is"}, {"end": 44.08, "start": 43.92, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 44.68, "start": 44.08, "text": "democracy?"}, {"end": 44.96, "start": 44.68, "text": "It's"}, {"end": 45.4, "start": 44.96, "text": "a"}, {"end": 46.239999999999995, "start": 45.4, "text": "voting"}, {"end": 46.44, "start": 46.239999999999995, "text": "paradigm,"}, {"end": 46.760000000000005, "start": 46.44, "text": "and"}, {"end": 47.28, "start": 46.760000000000005, "text": "I"}, {"end": 48.32, "start": 47.28, "text": "think"}, {"end": 48.44, "start": 48.32, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 48.6, "start": 48.44, "text": "easiest"}, {"end": 49.04, "start": 48.6, "text": "to"}, {"end": 49.64, "start": 49.04, "text": "understand"}, {"end": 50.04, "start": 49.64, "text": "on"}, {"end": 50.16, "start": 50.04, "text": "a"}, {"end": 51.0, "start": 50.16, "text": "spectrum"}, {"end": 51.36, "start": 51.0, "text": "of"}, {"end": 51.6, "start": 51.36, "text": "other"}, {"end": 52.04, "start": 51.6, "text": "paradigms"}, {"end": 52.2, "start": 52.04, "text": "we're"}, {"end": 52.64, "start": 52.2, "text": "familiar"}, {"end": 53.68, "start": 52.64, "text": "with."}, {"end": 53.879999999999995, "start": 53.68, "text": "So"}, {"end": 54.04, "start": 53.879999999999995, "text": "on"}, {"end": 54.120000000000005, "start": 54.04, "text": "one"}, {"end": 54.84, "start": 54.120000000000005, "text": "side,"}, {"end": 54.96, "start": 54.84, "text": "we"}, {"end": 55.480000000000004, "start": 54.96, "text": "have"}, {"end": 55.8, "start": 55.480000000000004, "text": "direct"}, {"end": 56.44, "start": 55.8, "text": "democracy."}, {"end": 57.120000000000005, "start": 56.44, "text": "This"}, {"end": 57.4, "start": 57.120000000000005, "text": "is"}, {"end": 58.04, "start": 57.4, "text": "classic"}, {"end": 58.4, "start": 58.04, "text": "Athenian"}, {"end": 58.92, "start": 58.4, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 59.239999999999995, "start": 58.92, "text": "where"}, {"end": 59.96, "start": 59.239999999999995, "text": "everybody"}], "text": " about some new empirical results on liquid democracy. And I really want to give a lot of credit to Mano here. We've done some theoretical work on this before, but she was really the leader of these experiments and unfortunately couldn't make it today. Anyway, so what is liquid democracy? It's a voting paradigm, and I think it's easiest to understand on a spectrum of other paradigms we're familiar with. So on one side, we have direct democracy. This is classic Athenian democracy where everybody"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 60.4, "start": 60.0, "text": "votes"}, {"end": 60.6, "start": 60.4, "text": "and"}, {"end": 61.4, "start": 60.6, "text": "the"}, {"end": 61.76, "start": 61.4, "text": "way"}, {"end": 61.84, "start": 61.76, "text": "you"}, {"end": 62.08, "start": 61.84, "text": "make"}, {"end": 62.32, "start": 62.08, "text": "a"}, {"end": 62.68, "start": 62.32, "text": "decision"}, {"end": 62.88, "start": 62.68, "text": "you"}, {"end": 63.04, "start": 62.88, "text": "just"}, {"end": 63.48, "start": 63.04, "text": "hold"}, {"end": 63.68, "start": 63.48, "text": "a"}, {"end": 63.68, "start": 63.68, "text": "vote"}, {"end": 63.68, "start": 63.68, "text": "with"}, {"end": 63.72, "start": 63.68, "text": "everybody"}, {"end": 64.12, "start": 63.72, "text": "and"}, {"end": 64.12, "start": 64.12, "text": "you"}, {"end": 64.12, "start": 64.12, "text": "just"}, {"end": 64.28, "start": 64.12, "text": "take"}, {"end": 64.32, "start": 64.28, 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a decision you just hold a vote with everybody and you just take the majority opinion say if you're deciding on two things on the other end is a slightly more modern take on this they're more familiar with which is representative democracy so here there's a small set of representatives that vote sort of on our behalf and again we just take the majority of what these representatives say as the outcome for a decision and on the middle of the spectrum is we is liquid democracy so how does liquid democracy work"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 90.0, "start": 90.0, "text": "You"}, {"end": 90.72, "start": 90.0, "text": "have"}, {"end": 90.72, "start": 90.72, "text": "all"}, {"end": 90.92, "start": 90.72, "text": "your"}, {"end": 90.92, "start": 90.92, "text": "people"}, {"end": 90.92, "start": 90.92, "text": "that"}, {"end": 91.56, "start": 90.92, "text": "want"}, {"end": 91.76, "start": 91.56, "text": "to"}, {"end": 92.68, "start": 91.76, "text": "make"}, {"end": 92.88, "start": 92.68, "text": 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"start": 118.16, "text": "on"}, {"end": 118.48, "start": 118.16, "text": "this"}, {"end": 118.88, "start": 118.48, "text": "chain"}, {"end": 119.03999999999999, "start": 118.88, "text": "of"}, {"end": 119.48, "start": 119.03999999999999, "text": "delegations"}, {"end": 119.48, "start": 119.48, "text": "votes"}, {"end": 119.48, "start": 119.48, "text": "on"}, {"end": 119.76, "start": 119.48, "text": "behalf"}, {"end": 119.96000000000001, "start": 119.76, "text": "of"}], "text": " You have all your people that want to make some decision. And everyone has a choice. They can either directly vote, just like direct democracy, or they can delegate their vote, very similar to representative democracy, but in particular, they can delegate to anybody. And the idea is that these delegations are transitive. 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So then they hold a vote and you just take the majority weighted by these delegations. And liquid democracy promises to be a sort of a best of both worlds, taking benefits from both direct and representative democracy. So on the direct side, you sort of have this like legitimacy participation aspect where everybody feels like they're part of it. They actually have an impact on every vote. They're not just sort of handing it off to this representative far away. And you can delegate to anyone. You're not restricted on who you might"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 150.16, "start": 150.0, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 150.16, "start": 150.16, "text": "to."}, {"end": 150.52, "start": 150.16, "text": "Maybe"}, {"end": 150.8, "start": 150.52, "text": "you"}, {"end": 150.84, "start": 150.8, "text": "don't"}, {"end": 151.36, "start": 150.84, "text": "like"}, {"end": 151.52, "start": 151.36, "text": "any"}, {"end": 151.52, "start": 151.52, "text": "of"}, {"end": 151.76, "start": 151.52, "text": "the"}, {"end": 152.0, "start": 151.76, "text": "representatives"}, {"end": 152.0, "start": 152.0, "text": "in"}, {"end": 152.04, "start": 152.0, "text": "your"}, {"end": 152.36, "start": 152.04, "text": "election."}, {"end": 153.64, "start": 152.36, "text": "But"}, {"end": 154.36, "start": 153.64, "text": "on"}, {"end": 154.56, "start": 154.36, "text": "the"}, {"end": 154.6, "start": 154.56, "text": "other"}, {"end": 154.96, "start": 154.6, "text": "hand,"}, {"end": 155.16, "start": 154.96, "text": 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Maybe you don't like any of the representatives in your election. But on the other hand, you get some benefits from representative democracy. You really get a more like large scale feasibility. It might not be feasible to ask every single person every question for every single issue. And you might not be knowledgeable in every single issue. You know, you might not want to vote on everything. I trust that person more than myself to make a good decision. 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You're not like explicitly deciding who the representatives are, but sort of, you know, you delegate to people you think are a little better off and you end up at a better decision. Okay, and we're gonna focus a little more on this today. But before I jump into our results, I just wanna say like this really is something that's used in practice. There are several political parties around the world, especially in like Germany, Argentina, Australia. You know, they're sort of small scale, but like it really is something being used. They sort of get represented in their associate parliaments and run this and vote on"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 210.24, "start": 210.0, "text": "just"}, {"end": 210.48, "start": 210.24, "text": "as"}, {"end": 210.56, "start": 210.48, "text": "Liquid"}, {"end": 210.92, "start": 210.56, "text": "Democracy"}, {"end": 211.12, "start": 210.92, "text": "would"}, {"end": 212.04, "start": 211.12, "text": "have"}, {"end": 212.56, "start": 212.04, "text": "said."}, {"end": 212.64, "start": 212.56, "text": "It's"}, {"end": 212.88, "start": 212.64, "text": "also"}, {"end": 213.16, "start": 212.88, "text": "used"}, {"end": 213.44, "start": 213.16, "text": "more"}, {"end": 213.88, "start": 213.44, "text": "company"}, {"end": 214.36, "start": 213.88, "text": "scale."}, {"end": 214.56, "start": 214.36, "text": "I"}, {"end": 214.8, "start": 214.56, "text": "know"}, {"end": 215.08, "start": 214.8, "text": "Google's"}, {"end": 215.24, "start": 215.08, "text": "run"}, {"end": 215.4, "start": 215.24, "text": "some"}, {"end": 216.08, "start": 215.4, "text": "experiments,"}, {"end": 216.4, "start": 216.08, "text": "and"}, {"end": 216.64, "start": 216.4, "text": "I"}, {"end": 216.64, "start": 216.64, "text": "think"}, {"end": 217.2, "start": 216.64, "text": "corporate"}, {"end": 217.76, "start": 217.2, "text": "governance"}, {"end": 217.96, "start": 217.76, "text": "is"}, {"end": 218.52, "start": 217.96, "text": "more"}, {"end": 219.04, "start": 218.52, "text": "a"}, {"end": 219.24, "start": 219.04, "text": "feasible"}, {"end": 219.52, "start": 219.24, "text": "way"}, {"end": 219.52, "start": 219.52, "text": "we"}, {"end": 219.88, "start": 219.52, "text": "can"}, {"end": 220.24, "start": 219.88, "text": "implement"}, {"end": 220.44, "start": 220.24, "text": "this"}, {"end": 220.6, "start": 220.44, "text": "more"}, {"end": 221.16, "start": 220.6, "text": "quickly,"}, {"end": 221.64, "start": 221.16, "text": "and"}, {"end": 221.92, "start": 221.64, "text": "it"}, {"end": 222.04, "start": 221.92, "text": "seems"}, {"end": 222.12, "start": 222.04, "text": "like"}, {"end": 222.24, "start": 222.12, "text": "a"}, {"end": 222.52, "start": 222.24, "text": "cool"}, {"end": 223.4, "start": 222.52, "text": "application."}, {"end": 223.88, "start": 223.4, "text": "And"}, {"end": 224.04, "start": 223.88, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 224.36, "start": 224.04, "text": "not"}, {"end": 224.72, "start": 224.36, "text": "too"}, {"end": 224.84, "start": 224.72, "text": "familiar"}, {"end": 224.84, "start": 224.84, "text": "with"}, {"end": 224.84, "start": 224.84, "text": "it,"}, {"end": 224.88, "start": 224.84, "text": "but"}, {"end": 225.04, "start": 224.88, "text": "I"}, {"end": 225.2, "start": 225.04, "text": "think"}, {"end": 225.56, "start": 225.2, "text": "some"}, {"end": 226.04, "start": 225.56, "text": "crypto"}, {"end": 226.2, "start": 226.04, "text": "people"}, {"end": 226.24, "start": 226.2, "text": "are"}, {"end": 226.72, "start": 226.24, "text": "also"}, {"end": 227.12, "start": 226.72, "text": "interested"}, {"end": 227.84, "start": 227.12, "text": "for"}, {"end": 228.2, "start": 227.84, "text": "making"}, {"end": 228.6, "start": 228.2, "text": "decisions"}, {"end": 228.68, "start": 228.6, "text": "in"}, {"end": 229.04, "start": 228.68, "text": "a"}, {"end": 229.64, "start": 229.04, "text": "decentralized"}, {"end": 230.28, "start": 229.64, "text": "way."}, {"end": 230.64, "start": 230.28, "text": "They"}, {"end": 230.88, "start": 230.64, "text": "like"}, {"end": 231.07999999999998, "start": 230.88, "text": "these"}, {"end": 231.36, "start": 231.07999999999998, "text": "kind"}, {"end": 231.64, "start": 231.36, "text": "of"}, {"end": 233.04, "start": 231.64, "text": "things."}, {"end": 234.0, "start": 233.04, "text": "So"}, {"end": 235.0, "start": 234.0, "text": "to"}, {"end": 235.8, "start": 235.0, "text": "understand"}, {"end": 236.12, "start": 235.8, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 236.64, "start": 236.12, "text": "we're"}, {"end": 237.24, "start": 236.64, "text": "implicitly"}, {"end": 237.68, "start": 237.24, "text": "finding"}, {"end": 237.76, "start": 237.68, "text": "more"}, {"end": 238.07999999999998, "start": 237.76, "text": "knowledgeable"}, {"end": 238.07999999999998, "start": 238.07999999999998, "text": "people,"}, {"end": 238.24, "start": 238.07999999999998, "text": "we"}, {"end": 238.28, "start": 238.24, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 238.64, "start": 238.28, "text": "of"}, {"end": 238.8, "start": 238.64, "text": "need"}, {"end": 239.04, "start": 238.8, "text": "some"}, {"end": 239.4, "start": 239.04, "text": "model"}, {"end": 239.52, "start": 239.4, "text": "of"}, {"end": 239.72, "start": 239.52, "text": "how"}, {"end": 239.72, "start": 239.72, "text": "this"}, {"end": 239.96, "start": 239.72, "text": "works."}], "text": " just as Liquid Democracy would have said. It's also used more company scale. I know Google's run some experiments, and I think corporate governance is more a feasible way we can implement this more quickly, and it seems like a cool application. And I'm not too familiar with it, but I think some crypto people are also interested for making decisions in a decentralized way. They like these kind of things. So to understand this, we're implicitly finding more knowledgeable people, we sort of need some model of how this works."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 240.92, "start": 240.0, "text": "And"}, {"end": 241.36, "start": 240.92, "text": "we"}, {"end": 242.16, "start": 241.36, "text": "take"}, {"end": 242.68, "start": 242.16, "text": "inspiration"}, {"end": 243.04, "start": 242.68, "text": "from"}, {"end": 243.32, "start": 243.04, "text": "the"}, {"end": 243.84, "start": 243.32, "text": "epistemic"}, {"end": 244.16, "start": 243.84, "text": "approach"}, {"end": 244.56, "start": 244.16, "text": "introduced"}, {"end": 244.72, "start": 244.56, "text": "by"}, {"end": 245.32, "start": 244.72, "text": "Condorcet"}, {"end": 245.44, "start": 245.32, "text": "several"}, {"end": 245.8, "start": 245.44, "text": "hundred"}, {"end": 246.04, "start": 245.8, "text": "years"}, {"end": 247.04, "start": 246.04, "text": "ago."}, {"end": 247.48, "start": 247.04, "text": "And"}, {"end": 248.72, "start": 247.48, "text": 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And this has been used before in some other theoretical work. The idea is that your end voters in society are voting on one of two outcomes. And there really is some notion of a better outcome that we want for everybody. And I think this is more applicable in some situations than others. We can get back to that later, but I'll show you what I mean more in the experiments in a bit. 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296.84, "text": "of"}, {"end": 296.96, "start": 296.84, "text": "these"}, {"end": 297.16, "start": 296.96, "text": "seven"}, {"end": 297.36, "start": 297.16, "text": "people"}, {"end": 297.48, "start": 297.36, "text": "are"}, {"end": 297.72, "start": 297.48, "text": "correct"}, {"end": 297.88, "start": 297.72, "text": "is"}, {"end": 298.12, "start": 297.88, "text": "about"}, {"end": 299.96, "start": 298.12, "text": "82%."}], "text": " right answer and they might sometimes make a mistake. So with some probability they vote, hopefully above a half, with some fixed probability they're voting for the correct thing and otherwise they vote incorrectly. And just to give you an idea how this works, so like say we have this society of seven people, let's say these blue people are voting correctly with probably 0.6 and the purplish people with probably 0.8. Now if you just sort of run direct democracy, you let everyone vote, I did the math for you, the probability that at least four of these seven people are correct is about 82%."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 300.52, "start": 300.0, "text": "Now"}, {"end": 300.68, "start": 300.52, "text": "let's"}, {"end": 301.12, "start": 300.68, "text": "instead"}, {"end": 301.4, "start": 301.12, "text": "assume"}, {"end": 301.72, "start": 301.4, "text": "that"}, {"end": 301.92, "start": 301.72, "text": "these"}, {"end": 302.12, "start": 301.92, "text": "two"}, {"end": 302.32, "start": 302.12, "text": "people,"}, {"end": 302.64, "start": 302.32, "text": "these"}, {"end": 302.68, "start": 302.64, "text": "two"}, {"end": 302.84, "start": 302.68, "text": "blue"}, {"end": 303.4, "start": 302.84, "text": "people,"}, {"end": 303.88, "start": 303.4, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 303.88, "start": 303.88, "text": "to"}, {"end": 304.0, "start": 303.88, "text": "the"}, {"end": 304.12, "start": 304.0, "text": "two"}, 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321.44, "text": "a"}, {"end": 322.0, "start": 321.72, "text": "few"}, {"end": 322.24, "start": 322.0, "text": "more"}, {"end": 322.52, "start": 322.24, "text": "delegations"}, {"end": 322.76, "start": 322.52, "text": "happen."}, {"end": 322.96, "start": 322.76, "text": "These"}, {"end": 323.12, "start": 322.96, "text": "two"}, {"end": 323.28, "start": 323.12, "text": "blue"}, {"end": 323.68, "start": 323.28, "text": "people"}, {"end": 324.08, "start": 323.68, "text": "again"}, {"end": 324.28, "start": 324.08, "text": "vote"}, {"end": 324.52, "start": 324.28, "text": "to"}, {"end": 324.68, "start": 324.52, "text": "the"}, {"end": 324.8, "start": 324.68, "text": "purple"}, {"end": 325.16, "start": 324.8, "text": "person."}, {"end": 325.28, "start": 325.16, "text": "And"}, {"end": 326.12, "start": 325.28, "text": "now"}, {"end": 326.32, "start": 326.12, "text": "we"}, {"end": 327.0, "start": 326.32, "text": "have"}, {"end": 327.28, "start": 327.0, "text": "not"}, {"end": 327.48, "start": 327.28, "text": "a"}, {"end": 327.56, "start": 327.48, "text": "great"}, {"end": 327.92, "start": 327.56, "text": "situation,"}, {"end": 328.36, "start": 327.92, "text": "actually."}, {"end": 328.44, "start": 328.36, "text": "If"}, {"end": 328.72, "start": 328.44, "text": "you"}, {"end": 329.0, "start": 328.72, "text": "count"}, {"end": 329.04, "start": 329.0, "text": "the"}, {"end": 329.32, "start": 329.04, "text": "number"}, {"end": 329.32, "start": 329.32, "text": "of"}, {"end": 329.32, "start": 329.32, "text": "votes,"}, {"end": 329.32, "start": 329.32, "text": "this"}, {"end": 329.56, "start": 329.32, "text": "purple"}, {"end": 329.96, "start": 329.56, "text": "person"}], "text": " Now let's instead assume that these two people, these two blue people, delegate to the two purple people. You can again rerun this math and just ask, what's the probability majority now weighted by these delegations? The purple people sort of have two votes that they're correct. And we've seen it goes up a little bit. We sort of, you know, probably we made the correct answer is increased. Now what else could happen? Maybe a few more delegations happen. These two blue people again vote to the purple person. And now we have not a great situation, actually. If you count the number of votes, this purple person"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 330.28, "start": 330.0, "text": "person"}, {"end": 331.0, "start": 330.28, "text": "is"}, {"end": 331.56, "start": 331.0, "text": "accounted"}, {"end": 332.28, "start": 331.56, "text": "for"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.28, "text": "more"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.44, "text": "than"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.44, "text": "half"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.44, "text": "the"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.44, "text": "votes"}, {"end": 332.44, "start": 332.44, "text": "in"}, {"end": 332.56, "start": 332.44, "text": "the"}, {"end": 333.04, "start": 332.56, "text": "entire"}, {"end": 333.36, "start": 333.04, "text": "society,"}, {"end": 333.4, "start": 333.36, "text": "so"}, {"end": 333.64, "start": 333.4, "text": "they're"}, {"end": 333.76, "start": 333.64, "text": "almost"}, {"end": 333.96, "start": 333.76, "text": "like"}, {"end": 334.04, "start": 333.96, "text": "a"}, {"end": 335.04, "start": 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"person"}, {"end": 353.24, "start": 353.0, "text": "here,"}, {"end": 353.44, "start": 353.24, "text": "and"}, {"end": 353.88, "start": 353.44, "text": "they"}, {"end": 354.2, "start": 353.88, "text": "only"}, {"end": 354.2, "start": 354.2, "text": "get"}, {"end": 354.2, "start": 354.2, "text": "it"}, {"end": 354.44, "start": 354.2, "text": "right"}, {"end": 354.64, "start": 354.44, "text": "with"}, {"end": 354.8, "start": 354.64, "text": "probably"}, {"end": 355.0, "start": 354.8, "text": "0.6."}, {"end": 355.0, "start": 355.0, "text": "And"}, {"end": 355.16, "start": 355.0, "text": "just"}, {"end": 355.16, "start": 355.16, "text": "to"}, {"end": 355.16, "start": 355.16, "text": "give"}, {"end": 355.16, "start": 355.16, "text": "you"}, {"end": 356.96, "start": 355.16, "text": "an"}, {"end": 357.92, "start": 356.96, "text": "idea"}, {"end": 358.16, "start": 357.92, "text": "of"}, {"end": 358.16, "start": 358.16, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 358.16, "start": 358.16, "text": "of"}, {"end": 358.16, "start": 358.16, "text": "like,"}, {"end": 358.56, "start": 358.16, "text": "when"}, {"end": 358.56, "start": 358.56, "text": "do"}, {"end": 358.76, "start": 358.56, "text": "things"}, {"end": 358.92, "start": 358.76, "text": "go"}, {"end": 359.32, "start": 358.92, "text": "well,"}, {"end": 359.44, "start": 359.32, "text": "and"}, {"end": 359.48, "start": 359.44, "text": "might"}, {"end": 359.6, "start": 359.48, "text": "they"}, {"end": 359.72, "start": 359.6, "text": "go"}, {"end": 359.96, "start": 359.72, "text": "wrong,"}], "text": " person is accounted for more than half the votes in the entire society, so they're almost like a dictator. So the probability we're correct is just the probability this purple person got it right. So 80%. And even worse, this purple person may delegate to this other blue person, and now we're even much worse off. Worse than if we had just run the classic majority direct democracy election. Because now we're just dependent on this one person here, and they only get it right with probably 0.6. And just to give you an idea of sort of like, when do things go well, and might they go wrong,"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 360.08, "start": 360.0, "text": "Things"}, {"end": 360.28, "start": 360.08, "text": "look"}, {"end": 360.64, "start": 360.28, "text": "really"}, {"end": 361.04, "start": 360.64, "text": "bad"}, {"end": 361.48, "start": 361.04, "text": "if"}, {"end": 361.64, "start": 361.48, "text": "you,"}, {"end": 361.76, "start": 361.64, "text": "sorry,"}, {"end": 361.84, "start": 361.76, "text": "things"}, {"end": 362.04, "start": 361.84, "text": "look"}, {"end": 362.64, "start": 362.04, "text": "really"}, {"end": 363.76, "start": 362.64, "text": "good"}, {"end": 364.16, "start": 363.76, "text": "if"}, {"end": 364.36, "start": 364.16, "text": "you"}, {"end": 364.6, "start": 364.36, "text": "have"}, {"end": 364.8, "start": 364.6, "text": "a"}, {"end": 365.32, "start": 364.8, "text": "bunch"}, {"end": 365.44, "start": 365.32, "text": "of"}, {"end": 365.56, "start": 365.44, "text": 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384.32, "start": 384.2, "text": "the"}, {"end": 384.96, "start": 384.32, "text": "outside"}, {"end": 385.4, "start": 384.96, "text": "people"}, {"end": 385.8, "start": 385.4, "text": "are"}, {"end": 386.16, "start": 385.8, "text": "getting"}, {"end": 386.44, "start": 386.16, "text": "it"}, {"end": 386.76, "start": 386.44, "text": "right"}, {"end": 387.0, "start": 386.76, "text": "with"}, {"end": 387.2, "start": 387.0, "text": "a"}, {"end": 387.8, "start": 387.2, "text": "60%"}, {"end": 387.96, "start": 387.8, "text": "probability."}, {"end": 388.2, "start": 387.96, "text": "And"}, {"end": 388.88, "start": 388.2, "text": "now"}, {"end": 389.04, "start": 388.88, "text": "when"}, {"end": 389.28, "start": 389.04, "text": "you"}, {"end": 389.44, "start": 389.28, "text": "have"}, {"end": 389.56, "start": 389.44, "text": "lots"}, {"end": 389.56, "start": 389.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 389.96, "start": 389.56, "text": "people,"}], "text": " Things look really bad if you, sorry, things look really good if you have a bunch of maybe not too knowledgeable people delegating to a single middle person. If you just sort of let the entire society vote, if they're frequently getting it wrong, then the overall decision's bad. But if you all delegate to this one person in the middle, then things look good. Although conversely, it can be a very similar looking situation, but now the outside people are getting it right with a 60% probability. And now when you have lots of people,"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 390.4, "start": 390.0, "text": "they're"}, {"end": 390.68, "start": 390.4, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 390.92, "start": 390.68, "text": "going"}, {"end": 390.92, "start": 390.92, "text": "to"}, {"end": 391.16, "start": 390.92, "text": "very"}, {"end": 391.28, "start": 391.16, "text": "frequently"}, {"end": 391.28, "start": 391.28, "text": "get"}, {"end": 391.32, "start": 391.28, "text": "the"}, {"end": 391.64, "start": 391.32, "text": "right"}, {"end": 392.04, "start": 391.64, "text": "answer."}, {"end": 392.8, "start": 392.04, "text": "But"}, {"end": 393.08, "start": 392.8, "text": "if"}, {"end": 393.2, "start": 393.08, "text": "you"}, {"end": 393.2, "start": 393.2, "text": "do"}, {"end": 393.36, "start": 393.2, "text": "these"}, {"end": 393.88, "start": 393.36, "text": "delegations,"}, {"end": 394.32, "start": 393.88, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 394.56, "start": 394.32, "text": "only"}, {"end": 394.56, "start": 394.56, "text": "getting"}, {"end": 394.56, "start": 394.56, "text": "right"}, {"end": 394.88, "start": 394.56, "text": "8%"}, {"end": 394.88, "start": 394.88, "text": "of"}, {"end": 394.88, "start": 394.88, "text": "the"}, {"end": 395.2, "start": 394.88, "text": "time."}, {"end": 395.28, "start": 395.2, "text": "So"}, {"end": 395.64, "start": 395.28, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 395.72, "start": 395.64, "text": "not"}, {"end": 395.96, "start": 395.72, "text": "quite"}, {"end": 395.96, "start": 395.96, "text": "as"}, {"end": 395.96, "start": 395.96, "text": "good."}, {"end": 395.96, "start": 395.96, "text": "And"}, {"end": 396.08, "start": 395.96, "text": "the"}, {"end": 396.72, "start": 396.08, "text": "key"}, {"end": 398.04, "start": 396.72, "text": "takeaway"}, {"end": 398.24, "start": 398.04, "text": "is"}, {"end": 398.88, "start": 398.24, "text": "how"}, {"end": 399.04, "start": 398.88, "text": "well"}, {"end": 399.16, "start": 399.04, "text": "liquidity"}, {"end": 399.52, "start": 399.16, "text": "performs"}, {"end": 400.12, "start": 399.52, "text": "really"}, {"end": 400.56, "start": 400.12, "text": "depends"}, {"end": 400.64, "start": 400.56, "text": "on"}, {"end": 400.88, "start": 400.64, "text": "these"}, {"end": 401.4, "start": 400.88, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 401.44, "start": 401.4, "text": "behaviors,"}, {"end": 401.52, "start": 401.44, "text": "really"}, {"end": 401.76, "start": 401.52, "text": "depends"}, {"end": 401.84, "start": 401.76, "text": "on"}, {"end": 402.04, "start": 401.84, "text": "the"}, {"end": 403.12, "start": 402.04, "text": "context."}, {"end": 403.84, "start": 403.12, "text": "So"}, {"end": 404.28, "start": 403.84, "text": "there"}, {"end": 405.6, "start": 404.28, "text": "has"}, {"end": 406.24, "start": 405.6, "text": "been"}, {"end": 406.56, "start": 406.24, "text": "lots"}, {"end": 406.88, "start": 406.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 407.2, "start": 406.88, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 407.92, "start": 407.2, "text": "research"}, {"end": 408.16, "start": 407.92, "text": "on"}, {"end": 408.36, "start": 408.16, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 408.48, "start": 408.36, "text": "but"}, {"end": 408.48, "start": 408.48, "text": "the"}, {"end": 408.48, "start": 408.48, "text": "talk"}, {"end": 408.64, "start": 408.48, "text": "today"}, {"end": 409.04, "start": 408.64, "text": "is"}, {"end": 409.32, "start": 409.04, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 409.44, "start": 409.32, "text": "about"}, {"end": 409.56, "start": 409.44, "text": "some"}, {"end": 410.0, "start": 409.56, "text": "real"}, {"end": 410.2, "start": 410.0, "text": "world"}, {"end": 410.52, "start": 410.2, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 410.64, "start": 410.52, "text": "we"}, {"end": 411.56, "start": 410.64, "text": "ran."}, {"end": 411.88, "start": 411.56, "text": "And"}, {"end": 412.28, "start": 411.88, "text": "we"}, {"end": 412.28, "start": 412.28, "text": "did"}, {"end": 412.72, "start": 412.28, "text": "these"}, {"end": 412.76, "start": 412.72, "text": "in"}, {"end": 413.32, "start": 412.76, "text": "small"}, {"end": 414.16, "start": 413.32, "text": "classroom"}, {"end": 415.76, "start": 414.16, "text": "settings."}, {"end": 416.16, "start": 415.76, "text": "And"}, {"end": 416.44, "start": 416.16, "text": "the"}, {"end": 416.76, "start": 416.44, "text": "idea"}, {"end": 416.96, "start": 416.76, "text": "is"}, {"end": 417.08, "start": 416.96, "text": "we"}, {"end": 417.96, "start": 417.08, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 418.44, "start": 417.96, "text": "of"}, {"end": 418.72, "start": 418.44, "text": "asked"}, {"end": 418.72, "start": 418.72, "text": "these"}, {"end": 418.8, "start": 418.72, "text": "people"}, {"end": 418.88, "start": 418.8, "text": "some"}, {"end": 419.96, "start": 418.88, "text": "questions."}], "text": " they're actually going to very frequently get the right answer. But if you do these delegations, you're only getting right 8% of the time. So maybe not quite as good. And the key takeaway is how well liquidity performs really depends on these delegation behaviors, really depends on the context. So there has been lots of theoretical research on this, but the talk today is actually about some real world experiments we ran. And we did these in small classroom settings. And the idea is we sort of asked these people some questions."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 420.12, "start": 420.0, "text": "You're"}, {"end": 420.16, "start": 420.12, "text": "going"}, {"end": 420.28, "start": 420.16, "text": "to"}, {"end": 420.72, "start": 420.28, "text": "be"}, {"end": 420.96, "start": 420.72, "text": "asked"}, {"end": 421.08, "start": 420.96, "text": "a"}, {"end": 421.08, "start": 421.08, "text": "lot"}, {"end": 421.08, "start": 421.08, "text": "of"}, {"end": 421.68, "start": 421.08, "text": "questions"}, {"end": 422.08, "start": 421.68, "text": "about"}, {"end": 423.0, "start": 422.08, "text": "the"}, {"end": 423.32, "start": 423.0, "text": "meaning"}, {"end": 423.44, "start": 423.32, "text": "of"}, {"end": 423.68, "start": 423.44, "text": "some"}, {"end": 424.24, "start": 423.68, "text": "English"}, {"end": 425.04, "start": 424.24, "text": "idioms"}, {"end": 425.4, "start": 425.04, "text": "or"}, {"end": 425.6, "start": 425.4, "text": "about"}, {"end": 425.76, "start": 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445.96, "start": 445.52, "text": "copied"}, {"end": 446.12, "start": 445.96, "text": "their"}, {"end": 446.4, "start": 446.12, "text": "questions."}, {"end": 447.68, "start": 446.4, "text": "And"}, {"end": 448.16, "start": 447.68, "text": "they're"}, {"end": 448.32, "start": 448.16, "text": "all"}, {"end": 448.6, "start": 448.32, "text": "true"}, {"end": 448.8, "start": 448.6, "text": "false"}, {"end": 449.08, "start": 448.8, "text": "questions."}, {"end": 449.08, "start": 449.08, "text": "They're"}, {"end": 449.08, "start": 449.08, "text": "either"}, {"end": 449.08, "start": 449.08, "text": "a"}, {"end": 449.28, "start": 449.08, "text": "yes"}, {"end": 449.96, "start": 449.28, "text": "or"}], "text": " You're going to be asked a lot of questions about the meaning of some English idioms or about some movies, some trivia knowledge. And you have the option you can either choose to vote directly on this or delegate your vote to someone else in the classroom that you might think is better than you. So here are some examples of some of my questions. We took it from this big, there's been lots of studies. We didn't make these questions ourselves. This is like big corpus of questions used by some like Stanford experiments that we just copied their questions. And they're all true false questions. They're either a yes or"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 450.2, "start": 450.0, "text": "Just"}, {"end": 451.76, "start": 450.2, "text": "two"}, {"end": 452.68, "start": 451.76, "text": "options."}, {"end": 452.92, "start": 452.68, "text": "Right,"}, {"end": 453.08, "start": 452.92, "text": "so"}, {"end": 453.48, "start": 453.08, "text": "again,"}, {"end": 453.8, "start": 453.48, "text": "similar"}, {"end": 453.96, "start": 453.8, "text": "thing"}, {"end": 454.12, "start": 453.96, "text": "with"}, {"end": 455.0, "start": 454.12, "text": "movies."}, {"end": 455.08, "start": 455.0, "text": "And"}, {"end": 456.08, "start": 455.08, "text": "the"}, {"end": 456.64, "start": 456.08, "text": "nice"}, {"end": 457.32, "start": 456.64, "text": "thing"}, {"end": 457.76, "start": 457.32, "text": "about"}, {"end": 458.08, "start": 457.76, "text": "running"}, {"end": 458.2, "start": 458.08, "text": "these"}, {"end": 458.6, "start": 458.2, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 458.84, "start": 458.6, "text": "is"}, {"end": 459.2, "start": 458.84, "text": "that"}, {"end": 459.44, "start": 459.2, "text": "we"}, {"end": 459.68, "start": 459.44, "text": "not"}, {"end": 459.8, "start": 459.68, "text": "only"}, {"end": 459.88, "start": 459.8, "text": "ask"}, {"end": 459.88, "start": 459.88, "text": "people"}, {"end": 460.0, "start": 459.88, "text": "to"}, {"end": 460.56, "start": 460.0, "text": "delegate,"}, {"end": 460.8, "start": 460.56, "text": "even"}, {"end": 460.8, "start": 460.8, "text": "if"}, {"end": 460.92, "start": 460.8, "text": "you"}, {"end": 461.2, "start": 460.92, "text": "chose"}, {"end": 461.32, "start": 461.2, "text": "to"}, {"end": 461.76, "start": 461.32, "text": "delegate,"}, {"end": 462.24, "start": 461.76, "text": "you"}, {"end": 462.6, "start": 462.24, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 462.64, "start": 462.6, "text": "were"}, {"end": 462.84, "start": 462.64, "text": "forced"}, {"end": 463.0, "start": 462.84, "text": "to"}, {"end": 463.12, "start": 463.0, "text": "answer"}, {"end": 463.2, "start": 463.12, "text": "the"}, {"end": 463.56, "start": 463.2, "text": "question"}, {"end": 463.68, "start": 463.56, "text": "as"}, {"end": 463.88, "start": 463.68, "text": "well."}, {"end": 463.88, "start": 463.88, "text": "So"}, {"end": 464.4, "start": 463.88, "text": "we"}, {"end": 464.64, "start": 464.4, "text": "have"}, {"end": 465.0, "start": 464.64, "text": "an"}, {"end": 465.44, "start": 465.0, "text": "idea,"}, {"end": 465.52, "start": 465.44, "text": "we"}, {"end": 465.6, "start": 465.52, "text": "can"}, {"end": 466.04, "start": 465.6, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 466.4, "start": 466.04, "text": "compute"}, {"end": 466.56, "start": 466.4, "text": "these"}, {"end": 467.56, "start": 466.56, "text": "counterfactuals."}, {"end": 467.72, "start": 467.56, "text": "What"}, {"end": 468.0, "start": 467.72, "text": "would"}, {"end": 468.2, "start": 468.0, "text": "have"}, {"end": 468.44, "start": 468.2, "text": "happened"}, {"end": 468.52, "start": 468.44, "text": "if"}, {"end": 468.76, "start": 468.52, "text": "fewer"}, {"end": 469.04, "start": 468.76, "text": "people"}, {"end": 469.32, "start": 469.04, "text": "delegated,"}, {"end": 469.52, "start": 469.32, "text": "if"}, {"end": 469.72, "start": 469.52, "text": "they"}, {"end": 469.96, "start": 469.72, "text": "just"}, {"end": 470.44, "start": 469.96, "text": "voted"}, {"end": 470.64, "start": 470.44, "text": "directly,"}, {"end": 471.08, "start": 470.64, "text": "or"}, {"end": 471.08, "start": 471.08, "text": "what"}, {"end": 471.28, "start": 471.08, "text": "happens"}, {"end": 471.48, "start": 471.28, "text": "when"}, {"end": 471.6, "start": 471.48, "text": "they"}, {"end": 471.84, "start": 471.6, "text": "do"}, {"end": 472.04, "start": 471.84, "text": "delegate?"}, {"end": 472.32, "start": 472.04, "text": "How"}, {"end": 473.44, "start": 472.32, "text": "often"}, {"end": 473.72, "start": 473.44, "text": "are"}, {"end": 473.8, "start": 473.72, "text": "we"}, {"end": 474.08, "start": 473.8, "text": "right?"}, {"end": 474.16, "start": 474.08, "text": "And"}, {"end": 474.28, "start": 474.16, "text": "so"}, {"end": 474.56, "start": 474.28, "text": "we"}, {"end": 475.0, "start": 474.56, "text": "immediately"}, {"end": 475.0, "start": 475.0, "text": "get"}, {"end": 475.32, "start": 475.0, "text": "these"}, {"end": 475.84, "start": 475.32, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 476.48, "start": 475.84, "text": "graphs,"}, {"end": 476.64, "start": 476.48, "text": "right?"}, {"end": 477.12, "start": 476.64, "text": "In"}, {"end": 477.64, "start": 477.12, "text": "the"}, {"end": 478.16, "start": 477.64, "text": "nodes,"}, {"end": 478.52, "start": 478.16, "text": "we"}, {"end": 478.8, "start": 478.52, "text": "have"}, {"end": 478.96, "start": 478.8, "text": "an"}, {"end": 479.2, "start": 478.96, "text": "estimate"}, {"end": 479.44, "start": 479.2, "text": "of"}, {"end": 479.96, "start": 479.44, "text": "how,"}], "text": " Just two options. Right, so again, similar thing with movies. And the nice thing about running these experiments is that we not only ask people to delegate, even if you chose to delegate, you actually were forced to answer the question as well. So we have an idea, we can actually compute these counterfactuals. What would have happened if fewer people delegated, if they just voted directly, or what happens when they do delegate? How often are we right? And so we immediately get these delegation graphs, right? In the nodes, we have an estimate of how,"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 480.12, "start": 480.0, "text": "good"}, {"end": 481.04, "start": 480.12, "text": "people"}, {"end": 481.4, "start": 481.04, "text": "are"}, {"end": 481.88, "start": 481.4, "text": "answering"}, {"end": 482.04, "start": 481.88, "text": "these"}, {"end": 482.4, "start": 482.04, "text": "questions,"}, {"end": 482.52, "start": 482.4, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 482.76, "start": 482.52, "text": "from"}, {"end": 482.92, "start": 482.76, "text": "a"}, {"end": 483.04, "start": 482.92, "text": "different"}, {"end": 483.28, "start": 483.04, "text": "set"}, {"end": 483.4, "start": 483.28, "text": "of"}, {"end": 484.4, "start": 483.4, "text": "questions."}, {"end": 484.68, "start": 484.4, "text": "And"}, {"end": 484.8, "start": 484.68, "text": "we"}, {"end": 485.0, "start": 484.8, "text": "can"}, {"end": 485.0, "start": 485.0, "text": "see"}, {"end": 485.0, "start": 485.0, "text": "what"}, {"end": 485.12, "start": 485.0, "text": 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501.92, "text": "sometimes"}, {"end": 502.6, "start": 502.4, "text": "people"}, {"end": 502.76, "start": 502.6, "text": "are"}, {"end": 503.28, "start": 502.76, "text": "delegating"}, {"end": 503.4, "start": 503.28, "text": "to"}, {"end": 503.6, "start": 503.4, "text": "people"}, {"end": 504.2, "start": 503.6, "text": "that"}, {"end": 504.36, "start": 504.2, "text": "weren't"}, {"end": 504.72, "start": 504.36, "text": "quite"}, {"end": 504.96, "start": 504.72, "text": "as"}, {"end": 504.96, "start": 504.96, "text": "good"}, {"end": 504.96, "start": 504.96, "text": "as"}, {"end": 505.48, "start": 504.96, "text": "themselves"}, {"end": 505.68, "start": 505.48, "text": "and"}, {"end": 505.68, "start": 505.68, "text": "it"}, {"end": 505.68, "start": 505.68, "text": "doesn't"}, {"end": 505.92, "start": 505.68, "text": "work"}, {"end": 506.12, "start": 505.92, "text": "quite"}, {"end": 506.24, "start": 506.12, "text": "as"}, {"end": 506.56, "start": 506.24, "text": "well."}, {"end": 506.76, "start": 506.56, "text": "But"}, {"end": 507.2, "start": 506.76, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 507.52, "start": 507.2, "text": "just"}, {"end": 507.72, "start": 507.52, "text": "cool"}, {"end": 507.72, "start": 507.72, "text": "that"}, {"end": 508.88, "start": 507.72, "text": "we"}, {"end": 509.2, "start": 508.88, "text": "can"}, {"end": 509.44, "start": 509.2, "text": "immediately"}, {"end": 509.44, "start": 509.44, "text": "look"}, {"end": 509.44, "start": 509.44, "text": "at"}, {"end": 509.76, "start": 509.44, "text": "and"}, {"end": 509.96, "start": 509.76, "text": "observe"}], "text": " good people are answering these questions, maybe from a different set of questions. And we can see what the delegations look like. So sometimes things look good, like over here, we have sort of some less competent people delegating here. It's actually someone who is really good at this category. It doesn't always work well. We have people here that, these numbers are a little small, but this is a good number, this is a bad number. So sometimes people are delegating to people that weren't quite as good as themselves and it doesn't work quite as well. But it's just cool that we can immediately look at and observe"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 510.2, "start": 510.0, "text": "serve"}, {"end": 510.4, "start": 510.2, "text": "these"}, {"end": 510.92, "start": 510.4, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 511.32, "start": 510.92, "text": "graphs"}, {"end": 511.44, "start": 511.32, "text": "rather"}, {"end": 511.56, "start": 511.44, "text": "than"}, {"end": 511.84, "start": 511.56, "text": "just"}, {"end": 512.2, "start": 511.84, "text": "implicitly"}, {"end": 512.48, "start": 512.2, "text": "assuming"}, {"end": 513.44, "start": 512.48, "text": "them"}, {"end": 513.8, "start": 513.44, "text": "from"}, {"end": 514.12, "start": 513.8, "text": "some"}, {"end": 515.24, "start": 514.12, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 517.24, "start": 515.24, "text": "model."}, {"end": 518.52, "start": 517.24, "text": "And"}, {"end": 519.08, "start": 518.52, "text": "using"}, {"end": 519.32, "start": 519.08, "text": "this"}, {"end": 519.84, "start": 519.32, "text": "information,"}, {"end": 519.96, "start": 519.84, "text": "we"}, {"end": 520.12, "start": 519.96, "text": "can"}, {"end": 520.32, "start": 520.12, "text": "also"}, {"end": 520.72, "start": 520.32, "text": "immediately"}, {"end": 521.28, "start": 520.72, "text": "compare"}, {"end": 521.52, "start": 521.28, "text": "how"}, {"end": 521.56, "start": 521.52, "text": "good"}, {"end": 522.08, "start": 521.56, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 522.68, "start": 522.08, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 523.04, "start": 522.68, "text": "does"}, {"end": 523.72, "start": 523.04, "text": "compared"}, {"end": 523.72, "start": 523.72, "text": "to"}, {"end": 524.04, "start": 523.72, "text": "the"}, {"end": 524.48, "start": 524.04, "text": "counterfactual"}, {"end": 524.52, "start": 524.48, "text": "of"}, {"end": 524.88, "start": 524.52, "text": "everyone"}, {"end": 525.12, "start": 524.88, "text": "just"}, {"end": 525.4, "start": 525.12, "text": "directly"}, {"end": 526.36, "start": 525.4, "text": "voting."}, {"end": 526.76, "start": 526.36, "text": "So"}, {"end": 526.92, "start": 526.76, "text": "this"}, {"end": 527.04, "start": 526.92, "text": "is"}, {"end": 527.52, "start": 527.04, "text": "across"}, {"end": 527.96, "start": 527.52, "text": "our"}, {"end": 528.24, "start": 527.96, "text": "several"}, {"end": 528.52, "start": 528.24, "text": "different"}, {"end": 529.12, "start": 528.52, "text": "categories"}, {"end": 529.2, "start": 529.12, "text": "of"}, {"end": 530.28, "start": 529.2, "text": "questions"}, {"end": 530.48, "start": 530.28, "text": "and"}, {"end": 530.88, "start": 530.48, "text": "specific"}, {"end": 531.08, "start": 530.88, "text": "to"}, {"end": 531.28, "start": 531.08, "text": "different"}, {"end": 531.88, "start": 531.28, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 531.92, "start": 531.88, "text": "we"}, {"end": 532.16, "start": 531.92, "text": "run."}, {"end": 532.36, "start": 532.16, "text": "We"}, {"end": 532.44, "start": 532.36, "text": "write"}, {"end": 532.44, "start": 532.44, "text": "it"}, {"end": 532.52, "start": 532.44, "text": "in"}, {"end": 532.8, "start": 532.52, "text": "several"}, {"end": 533.96, "start": 532.8, "text": "classrooms."}, {"end": 534.52, "start": 533.96, "text": "And"}, {"end": 534.88, "start": 534.52, "text": "we"}, {"end": 535.44, "start": 534.88, "text": "see"}, {"end": 535.64, "start": 535.44, "text": "across"}, {"end": 535.8, "start": 535.64, "text": "all"}, {"end": 536.0, "start": 535.8, "text": "these,"}, {"end": 536.28, "start": 536.0, "text": "the"}, {"end": 536.68, "start": 536.28, "text": "purple"}, {"end": 537.28, "start": 536.68, "text": "triangle"}, {"end": 537.84, "start": 537.28, "text": "represents"}, {"end": 538.24, "start": 537.84, "text": "the"}, {"end": 538.72, "start": 538.24, "text": "frequency"}, {"end": 538.72, "start": 538.72, "text": "that"}, {"end": 539.0, "start": 538.72, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 539.6, "start": 539.0, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 539.6, "start": 539.6, "text": "was"}, {"end": 539.96, "start": 539.6, "text": "correct"}], "text": " serve these delegation graphs rather than just implicitly assuming them from some theoretical model. And using this information, we can also immediately compare how good liquid democracy does compared to the counterfactual of everyone just directly voting. So this is across our several different categories of questions and specific to different experiments we run. We write it in several classrooms. And we see across all these, the purple triangle represents the frequency that liquid democracy was correct"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 540.56, "start": 540.0, "text": "the"}, {"end": 540.76, "start": 540.56, "text": "blue"}, {"end": 541.12, "start": 540.76, "text": "dot"}, {"end": 541.36, "start": 541.12, "text": "direct"}, {"end": 541.88, "start": 541.36, "text": "democracy."}, {"end": 542.12, "start": 541.88, "text": "So"}, {"end": 542.36, "start": 542.12, "text": "very"}, {"end": 543.24, "start": 542.36, "text": "consistently"}, {"end": 543.32, "start": 543.24, "text": "look"}, {"end": 543.4, "start": 543.32, "text": "at"}, {"end": 544.0, "start": 543.4, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 544.08, "start": 544.0, "text": "is"}, {"end": 544.4, "start": 544.08, "text": "outperforming"}, {"end": 544.56, "start": 544.4, "text": "direct"}, {"end": 544.68, "start": 544.56, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 544.76, "start": 544.68, "text": "by"}, {"end": 544.84, "start": 544.76, "text": "at"}, {"end": 544.96, "start": 544.84, "text": "least"}, {"end": 545.48, "start": 544.96, "text": "a"}, {"end": 545.96, "start": 545.48, "text": "little"}, {"end": 548.96, "start": 545.96, "text": "bit."}, {"end": 549.6, "start": 548.96, "text": "And"}, {"end": 550.08, "start": 549.6, "text": "we"}, {"end": 550.32, "start": 550.08, "text": "can"}, {"end": 550.8, "start": 550.32, "text": "also"}, {"end": 551.76, "start": 550.8, "text": "compute"}, {"end": 552.32, "start": 551.76, "text": "using"}, {"end": 553.56, "start": 552.32, "text": "these"}, {"end": 554.8, "start": 553.56, "text": "like"}, {"end": 555.76, "start": 554.8, "text": "estimated"}, {"end": 556.4, "start": 555.76, "text": "expertises"}, {"end": 556.6, "start": 556.4, "text": "how"}, {"end": 556.8, "start": 556.6, "text": "good"}, {"end": 557.32, "start": 556.8, "text": "we"}, {"end": 557.64, "start": 557.32, "text": "expect"}, {"end": 557.96, "start": 557.64, "text": "people"}, {"end": 558.16, "start": 557.96, "text": "to"}, {"end": 558.28, "start": 558.16, "text": "be"}, {"end": 558.32, "start": 558.28, "text": "at"}, {"end": 558.32, "start": 558.32, "text": "different"}, {"end": 558.92, "start": 558.32, "text": "categories"}, {"end": 559.12, "start": 558.92, "text": "based"}, {"end": 559.28, "start": 559.12, "text": "on"}, {"end": 559.52, "start": 559.28, "text": "a"}, {"end": 559.56, "start": 559.52, "text": "few"}, {"end": 559.96, "start": 559.56, "text": "other"}, {"end": 560.76, "start": 559.96, "text": "questions,"}, {"end": 561.04, "start": 560.76, "text": "how"}, {"end": 561.32, "start": 561.04, "text": "these"}, {"end": 562.28, "start": 561.32, "text": "exercises"}, {"end": 563.0, "start": 562.28, "text": "increase"}, {"end": 563.2, "start": 563.0, "text": "among"}, {"end": 563.64, "start": 563.2, "text": "delegation."}, {"end": 563.72, "start": 563.64, "text": "Do"}, {"end": 563.84, "start": 563.72, "text": "you"}, {"end": 564.04, "start": 563.84, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 564.12, "start": 564.04, "text": "to"}, {"end": 564.6, "start": 564.12, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 564.6, "start": 564.6, "text": "to"}, {"end": 564.76, "start": 564.6, "text": "people"}, {"end": 564.84, "start": 564.76, "text": "that"}, {"end": 565.2, "start": 564.84, "text": "are"}, {"end": 565.76, "start": 565.2, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 566.56, "start": 565.76, "text": "better"}, {"end": 566.68, "start": 566.56, "text": "at"}, {"end": 566.96, "start": 566.68, "text": "the"}, {"end": 567.6, "start": 566.96, "text": "topic?"}, {"end": 567.96, "start": 567.6, "text": "And"}, {"end": 568.16, "start": 567.96, "text": "we"}, {"end": 568.32, "start": 568.16, "text": "do"}, {"end": 568.88, "start": 568.32, "text": "see"}, {"end": 569.08, "start": 568.88, "text": "in"}, {"end": 569.28, "start": 569.08, "text": "several"}, {"end": 569.96, "start": 569.28, "text": "categories"}], "text": " the blue dot direct democracy. So very consistently look at democracy is outperforming direct democracy by at least a little bit. And we can also compute using these like estimated expertises how good we expect people to be at different categories based on a few other questions, how these exercises increase among delegation. Do you tend to delegate to people that are actually better at the topic? And we do see in several categories"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 570.16, "start": 570.0, "text": "some"}, {"end": 570.52, "start": 570.16, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 571.16, "start": 570.52, "text": "statistically"}, {"end": 571.52, "start": 571.16, "text": "significant"}, {"end": 571.84, "start": 571.52, "text": "results"}, {"end": 571.92, "start": 571.84, "text": "in"}, {"end": 571.96, "start": 571.92, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 572.12, "start": 571.96, "text": "people"}, {"end": 572.84, "start": 572.12, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 573.08, "start": 572.84, "text": "are"}, {"end": 573.52, "start": 573.08, "text": "delegating."}, {"end": 573.8, "start": 573.52, "text": "There"}, {"end": 574.0, "start": 573.8, "text": "are"}, {"end": 574.24, "start": 574.0, "text": "people"}, {"end": 574.44, "start": 574.24, "text": "a"}, {"end": 574.44, "start": 574.44, "text": "few"}, {"end": 574.76, "start": 574.44, "text": "categories"}, {"end": 574.84, "start": 574.76, "text": "we"}, {"end": 574.84, "start": 574.84, "text": "don't."}, {"end": 574.92, "start": 574.84, "text": "This"}, {"end": 575.64, "start": 574.92, "text": "one"}, {"end": 575.92, "start": 575.64, "text": "over"}, {"end": 576.12, "start": 575.92, "text": "here,"}, {"end": 576.44, "start": 576.12, "text": "the"}, {"end": 576.72, "start": 576.44, "text": "spatial"}, {"end": 576.72, "start": 576.72, "text": "reasoning"}, {"end": 576.8, "start": 576.72, "text": "is"}, {"end": 577.16, "start": 576.8, "text": "kind"}, {"end": 577.4, "start": 577.16, "text": "of"}, {"end": 577.72, "start": 577.4, "text": "an"}, {"end": 578.12, "start": 577.72, "text": "anomaly,"}, {"end": 578.32, "start": 578.12, "text": "it"}, {"end": 578.4, "start": 578.32, "text": "looks"}, {"end": 578.56, "start": 578.4, "text": "negative."}, {"end": 578.56, "start": 578.56, "text": "But"}, {"end": 578.92, "start": 578.56, "text": "really"}, {"end": 579.28, "start": 578.92, "text": "what's"}, {"end": 579.68, "start": 579.28, "text": "happening"}, {"end": 579.72, "start": 579.68, "text": "is"}, {"end": 580.08, "start": 579.72, "text": "this"}, {"end": 580.32, "start": 580.08, "text": "is"}, {"end": 580.92, "start": 580.32, "text": "just"}, {"end": 581.48, "start": 580.92, "text": "like"}, {"end": 582.16, "start": 581.48, "text": "a"}, {"end": 582.4, "start": 582.16, "text": "very"}, {"end": 582.92, "start": 582.4, "text": "easy"}, {"end": 583.56, "start": 582.92, "text": "category"}, {"end": 583.68, "start": 583.56, "text": "that"}, {"end": 583.76, "start": 583.68, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 583.8, "start": 583.76, "text": "of"}, {"end": 584.24, "start": 583.8, "text": "everyone"}, {"end": 584.44, "start": 584.24, "text": "is"}, {"end": 584.68, "start": 584.44, "text": "getting"}, {"end": 585.0, "start": 584.68, "text": "right."}, {"end": 585.24, "start": 585.0, "text": "So"}, {"end": 585.72, "start": 585.24, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 585.88, "start": 585.72, "text": "not"}, {"end": 586.04, "start": 585.88, "text": "too"}, {"end": 586.28, "start": 586.04, "text": "interesting"}, {"end": 586.64, "start": 586.28, "text": "to"}, {"end": 587.04, "start": 586.64, "text": "look"}, {"end": 587.36, "start": 587.04, "text": "at"}, {"end": 587.52, "start": 587.36, "text": "how"}, {"end": 587.76, "start": 587.52, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 588.04, "start": 587.76, "text": "changes."}, {"end": 588.2, "start": 588.04, "text": "So"}, {"end": 588.32, "start": 588.2, "text": "clearly"}, {"end": 588.64, "start": 588.32, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 589.04, "start": 588.64, "text": "context"}, {"end": 589.88, "start": 589.04, "text": "dependent,"}, {"end": 590.16, "start": 589.88, "text": "but"}, {"end": 591.12, "start": 590.16, "text": "overall"}, {"end": 591.6, "start": 591.12, "text": "we're"}, {"end": 591.76, "start": 591.6, "text": "seeing"}, {"end": 591.92, "start": 591.76, "text": "very"}, {"end": 592.24, "start": 591.92, "text": "positive"}, {"end": 593.84, "start": 592.24, "text": "results."}, {"end": 595.2, "start": 593.84, "text": "So"}, {"end": 595.8, "start": 595.2, "text": "these"}, {"end": 596.12, "start": 595.8, "text": "are"}, {"end": 596.52, "start": 596.12, "text": "very"}, {"end": 597.0, "start": 596.52, "text": "direct,"}, {"end": 597.36, "start": 597.0, "text": "high"}, {"end": 597.36, "start": 597.36, "text": "level,"}, {"end": 597.88, "start": 597.36, "text": "like"}, {"end": 598.0, "start": 597.88, "text": "did"}, {"end": 598.16, "start": 598.0, "text": "we"}, {"end": 598.32, "start": 598.16, "text": "do"}, {"end": 598.96, "start": 598.32, "text": "better"}, {"end": 599.96, "start": 598.96, "text": "off?"}], "text": " some pretty statistically significant results in this, people actually are delegating. There are people a few categories we don't. This one over here, the spatial reasoning is kind of an anomaly, it looks negative. But really what's happening is this is just like a very easy category that sort of everyone is getting right. So it's not too interesting to look at how delegation changes. So clearly it's context dependent, but overall we're seeing very positive results. So these are very direct, high level, like did we do better off?"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 600.2, "start": 600.0, "text": "We're"}, {"end": 600.2, "start": 600.2, "text": "also"}, {"end": 600.6, "start": 600.2, "text": "interested"}, {"end": 600.6, "start": 600.6, "text": "in"}, {"end": 601.0, "start": 600.6, "text": "questions"}, {"end": 601.56, "start": 601.0, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 602.6, "start": 601.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 603.0, "start": 602.6, "text": "understanding"}, {"end": 603.48, "start": 603.0, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 604.24, "start": 603.48, "text": "behavior"}, {"end": 604.44, "start": 604.24, "text": "more"}, {"end": 605.04, "start": 604.44, "text": "exactly."}, {"end": 605.88, "start": 605.04, "text": "So"}, {"end": 606.12, "start": 605.88, "text": "not"}, {"end": 606.28, "start": 606.12, "text": "just"}, {"end": 606.56, "start": 606.28, "text": "the"}, {"end": 606.68, "start": 606.56, "text": "overall"}, {"end": 606.92, "start": 606.68, "text": "probably"}, {"end": 607.32, "start": 606.92, "text": "correctness,"}, {"end": 607.68, "start": 607.32, "text": "how"}, {"end": 607.68, "start": 607.68, "text": "are"}, {"end": 607.88, "start": 607.68, "text": "people"}, {"end": 608.48, "start": 607.88, "text": "actually"}, {"end": 609.48, "start": 608.48, "text": "delegating?"}, {"end": 609.68, "start": 609.48, "text": "And"}, {"end": 609.96, "start": 609.68, "text": "to"}, {"end": 610.12, "start": 609.96, "text": "do"}, {"end": 610.44, "start": 610.12, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 610.72, "start": 610.44, "text": "we"}, {"end": 610.76, "start": 610.72, "text": "need"}, {"end": 611.08, "start": 610.76, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 611.08, "start": 611.08, "text": "of"}, {"end": 611.12, "start": 611.08, "text": "some"}, {"end": 611.76, "start": 611.12, "text": "parameterized"}, {"end": 612.12, "start": 611.76, "text": "model"}, {"end": 612.16, "start": 612.12, "text": "that"}, {"end": 612.36, "start": 612.16, "text": "we"}, {"end": 612.56, "start": 612.36, "text": "can"}, {"end": 613.0, "start": 612.56, "text": "fit."}, {"end": 613.64, "start": 613.0, "text": "What"}, {"end": 613.92, "start": 613.64, "text": "is"}, {"end": 614.12, "start": 613.92, "text": "a"}, {"end": 614.68, "start": 614.12, "text": "way"}, {"end": 615.0, "start": 614.68, "text": "we"}, {"end": 615.2, "start": 615.0, "text": "can"}, {"end": 615.72, "start": 615.2, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 615.76, "start": 615.72, "text": "of"}, {"end": 616.48, "start": 615.76, "text": "classify"}, {"end": 617.68, "start": 616.48, "text": "behavior?"}, {"end": 617.96, "start": 617.68, "text": "And"}, {"end": 618.08, "start": 617.96, "text": "to"}, {"end": 618.24, "start": 618.08, "text": "do"}, {"end": 618.48, "start": 618.24, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 619.04, "start": 618.48, "text": "we're"}, {"end": 619.68, "start": 619.04, "text": "referencing"}, {"end": 619.92, "start": 619.68, "text": "our"}, {"end": 620.28, "start": 619.92, "text": "previous"}, {"end": 620.72, "start": 620.28, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 620.92, "start": 620.72, "text": "paper"}, {"end": 621.32, "start": 620.92, "text": "that"}, {"end": 621.64, "start": 621.32, "text": "introduced"}, {"end": 622.0, "start": 621.64, "text": "this"}, {"end": 623.24, "start": 622.0, "text": "model."}, {"end": 623.52, "start": 623.24, "text": "And"}, {"end": 623.92, "start": 623.52, "text": "the"}, {"end": 624.4, "start": 623.92, "text": "idea"}, {"end": 624.56, "start": 624.4, "text": "is"}, {"end": 625.16, "start": 624.56, "text": "that"}, {"end": 625.28, "start": 625.16, "text": "we"}, {"end": 625.28, "start": 625.28, "text": "think"}, {"end": 625.76, "start": 625.28, "text": "there's"}, {"end": 626.2, "start": 625.76, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 626.2, "start": 626.2, "text": "of"}, {"end": 626.24, "start": 626.2, "text": "two"}, {"end": 626.48, "start": 626.24, "text": "aspects"}, {"end": 626.84, "start": 626.48, "text": "to"}, {"end": 627.56, "start": 626.84, "text": "delegation."}, {"end": 628.56, "start": 627.56, "text": "So"}, {"end": 629.16, "start": 628.56, "text": "for"}, {"end": 629.28, "start": 629.16, "text": "a"}, {"end": 629.96, "start": 629.28, "text": "fixed"}], "text": " We're also interested in questions sort of understanding delegation behavior more exactly. So not just the overall probably correctness, how are people actually delegating? And to do this, we need sort of some parameterized model that we can fit. What is a way we can sort of classify behavior? And to do this, we're referencing our previous theoretical paper that introduced this model. And the idea is that we think there's sort of two aspects to delegation. So for a fixed"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 630.36, "start": 630.0, "text": "that"}, {"end": 630.56, "start": 630.36, "text": "set"}, {"end": 630.68, "start": 630.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 631.52, "start": 630.68, "text": "expertise"}, {"end": 631.68, "start": 631.52, "text": "is,"}, {"end": 631.8, "start": 631.68, "text": "first"}, {"end": 632.08, "start": 631.8, "text": "there's"}, {"end": 632.28, "start": 632.08, "text": "some"}, {"end": 632.88, "start": 632.28, "text": "probability"}, {"end": 632.88, "start": 632.88, "text": "that"}, {"end": 632.92, "start": 632.88, "text": "you"}, {"end": 633.24, "start": 632.92, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 633.64, "start": 633.24, "text": "in"}, {"end": 633.8, "start": 633.64, "text": "the"}, {"end": 634.04, "start": 633.8, "text": "first"}, {"end": 634.44, "start": 634.04, "text": "place."}, {"end": 634.52, "start": 634.44, "text": "And"}, {"end": 634.64, "start": 634.52, "text": "we"}, {"end": 634.64, "start": 634.64, "text": "think"}, {"end": 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"depending"}, {"end": 658.56, "start": 658.32, "text": "on"}, {"end": 658.84, "start": 658.56, "text": "how"}, {"end": 659.44, "start": 658.84, "text": "knowledgeable"}, {"end": 659.44, "start": 659.44, "text": "they"}, {"end": 659.96, "start": 659.44, "text": "are."}], "text": " that set of expertise is, first there's some probability that you delegate in the first place. And we think this is something dependent on your expertise. Hopefully people that are more knowledgeable are less likely to delegate. Maybe that doesn't happen. Maybe it's actually other way. Maybe if you're more knowledgeable on the topic, then you're maybe less confident. We did some other studies on this, but hopefully that's how it works. And then given this, there's sort of some tendency to delegate to someone of different competence. Maybe you put a different weight on different people depending on how knowledgeable they are."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 660.12, "start": 660.0, "text": "it"}, {"end": 660.12, "start": 660.12, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 660.2, "start": 660.12, "text": "of"}, {"end": 660.64, "start": 660.2, "text": "looks"}, {"end": 660.88, "start": 660.64, "text": "like"}, {"end": 661.4, "start": 660.88, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 661.84, "start": 661.4, "text": "delegating"}, {"end": 662.32, "start": 661.84, "text": "randomly"}, {"end": 662.56, "start": 662.32, "text": "or"}, {"end": 663.0, "start": 662.56, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 663.4, "start": 663.0, "text": "some"}, {"end": 663.56, "start": 663.4, "text": "proportion"}, {"end": 663.88, "start": 663.56, "text": "to"}, {"end": 664.2, "start": 663.88, "text": "these"}, {"end": 664.64, "start": 664.2, "text": "different"}, {"end": 665.8, "start": 664.64, "text": "people."}, {"end": 666.08, "start": 665.8, "text": "And"}, {"end": 666.08, "start": 666.08, "text": "just"}, {"end": 667.4, "start": 666.08, "text": "to"}, {"end": 667.96, "start": 667.4, "text": "make"}, {"end": 668.48, "start": 667.96, "text": "this"}, {"end": 668.68, "start": 668.48, "text": "a"}, {"end": 669.04, "start": 668.68, "text": "little"}, {"end": 669.4, "start": 669.04, "text": "more"}, {"end": 669.6, "start": 669.4, "text": "concrete,"}, {"end": 670.52, "start": 669.6, "text": "say"}, {"end": 671.2, "start": 670.52, "text": "again"}, {"end": 671.68, "start": 671.2, "text": "we"}, {"end": 671.68, "start": 671.68, "text": "have"}, {"end": 672.12, "start": 671.68, "text": "this"}, {"end": 672.28, "start": 672.12, "text": "very"}, {"end": 672.4, "start": 672.28, "text": "similar"}, {"end": 672.76, "start": 672.4, "text": "situation"}, {"end": 673.52, "start": 672.76, "text": "here,"}, {"end": 673.72, "start": 673.52, "text": "and"}, {"end": 673.92, "start": 673.72, "text": "we"}, {"end": 674.24, "start": 673.92, "text": "fit"}, {"end": 674.4, "start": 674.24, "text": "our"}, {"end": 675.56, "start": 674.4, "text": "functions"}, {"end": 676.04, "start": 675.56, "text": "and"}, {"end": 676.04, "start": 676.04, "text": "we"}, {"end": 676.08, "start": 676.04, "text": "think"}, {"end": 676.36, "start": 676.08, "text": "these"}, {"end": 676.76, "start": 676.36, "text": "functions"}, {"end": 677.28, "start": 676.76, "text": "accurately"}, {"end": 677.72, "start": 677.28, "text": "somehow"}, {"end": 678.36, "start": 677.72, "text": "describe"}, {"end": 679.0, "start": 678.36, "text": "delegation"}, {"end": 679.4, "start": 679.0, "text": "behavior."}, {"end": 680.16, "start": 679.4, "text": "So"}, {"end": 680.4, "start": 680.16, "text": "what"}, {"end": 680.6, "start": 680.4, "text": "does"}, {"end": 680.6, "start": 680.6, "text": "this"}, {"end": 680.92, "start": 680.6, "text": "mean"}, {"end": 680.96, "start": 680.92, "text": "if"}, {"end": 681.08, "start": 680.96, "text": "we"}, {"end": 681.24, "start": 681.08, "text": "think"}, {"end": 681.48, "start": 681.24, "text": "these"}, {"end": 681.64, "start": 681.48, "text": "are"}, {"end": 681.68, "start": 681.64, "text": "the"}, {"end": 681.8, "start": 681.68, "text": "way"}, {"end": 681.8, "start": 681.8, "text": "the"}, {"end": 681.96, "start": 681.8, "text": "functions"}, {"end": 682.24, "start": 681.96, "text": "work?"}, {"end": 683.0, "start": 682.24, "text": "If"}, {"end": 683.52, "start": 683.0, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 683.72, "start": 683.52, "text": "this"}, {"end": 684.12, "start": 683.72, "text": "voter,"}, {"end": 685.2, "start": 684.12, "text": "so"}, {"end": 685.6, "start": 685.2, "text": "your"}, {"end": 686.24, "start": 685.6, "text": "expertise"}, {"end": 686.36, "start": 686.24, "text": "in"}, {"end": 686.56, "start": 686.36, "text": "this"}, {"end": 686.6, "start": 686.56, "text": "topic"}, {"end": 686.8, "start": 686.6, "text": "is"}, {"end": 687.0, "start": 686.8, "text": "three"}, {"end": 687.36, "start": 687.0, "text": "fifths,"}, {"end": 688.12, "start": 687.36, "text": "the"}, {"end": 688.76, "start": 688.12, "text": "probability"}, {"end": 688.8, "start": 688.76, "text": "you"}, {"end": 688.8, "start": 688.8, "text": "choose"}, {"end": 688.8, "start": 688.8, "text": "to"}, {"end": 689.28, "start": 688.8, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 689.96, "start": 689.28, "text": "is"}], "text": " it sort of looks like you're delegating randomly or maybe some proportion to these different people. And just to make this a little more concrete, say again we have this very similar situation here, and we fit our functions and we think these functions accurately somehow describe delegation behavior. So what does this mean if we think these are the way the functions work? If you're this voter, so your expertise in this topic is three fifths, the probability you choose to delegate is"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 690.12, "start": 690.0, "text": "according"}, {"end": 690.28, "start": 690.12, "text": "to"}, {"end": 690.48, "start": 690.28, "text": "this"}, {"end": 690.68, "start": 690.48, "text": "one"}, {"end": 690.92, "start": 690.68, "text": "minus"}, {"end": 691.12, "start": 690.92, "text": "three"}, {"end": 691.44, "start": 691.12, "text": "fifths"}, {"end": 691.48, "start": 691.44, "text": "of"}, {"end": 691.72, "start": 691.48, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 691.92, "start": 691.72, "text": "40%"}, {"end": 691.96, "start": 691.92, "text": "of"}, {"end": 692.2, "start": 691.96, "text": "the"}, {"end": 692.48, "start": 692.2, "text": "time"}, {"end": 692.56, "start": 692.48, "text": "you"}, {"end": 692.8, "start": 692.56, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 693.0, "start": 692.8, "text": "to"}, {"end": 693.88, "start": 693.0, "text": "delegate."}, {"end": 694.64, "start": 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"text": "conveniently"}, {"end": 700.6, "start": 700.4, "text": "chose"}, {"end": 700.84, "start": 700.6, "text": "these"}, {"end": 701.12, "start": 700.84, "text": "numbers,"}, {"end": 701.32, "start": 701.12, "text": "so"}, {"end": 701.44, "start": 701.32, "text": "they"}, {"end": 701.44, "start": 701.44, "text": "add"}, {"end": 701.44, "start": 701.44, "text": "up"}, {"end": 701.48, "start": 701.44, "text": "to"}, {"end": 702.44, "start": 701.48, "text": "100."}, {"end": 702.8, "start": 702.44, "text": "So"}, {"end": 702.88, "start": 702.8, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 703.12, "start": 702.88, "text": "you"}, {"end": 703.6, "start": 703.12, "text": "have"}, {"end": 703.96, "start": 703.6, "text": "9%"}, {"end": 704.16, "start": 703.96, "text": "of"}, {"end": 704.36, "start": 704.16, "text": "the"}, {"end": 704.72, "start": 704.36, "text": "time"}, {"end": 704.88, "start": 704.72, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 705.16, "start": 704.88, "text": "delegating"}, {"end": 705.24, "start": 705.16, "text": "to"}, {"end": 705.48, "start": 705.24, "text": "each"}, {"end": 705.48, "start": 705.48, "text": "of"}, {"end": 705.68, "start": 705.48, "text": "these"}, {"end": 705.8, "start": 705.68, "text": "blue"}, {"end": 706.0, "start": 705.8, "text": "people"}, {"end": 706.48, "start": 706.0, "text": "and"}, {"end": 706.8, "start": 706.48, "text": "16%"}, {"end": 707.0, "start": 706.8, "text": "to"}, {"end": 707.04, "start": 707.0, "text": "these"}, {"end": 707.36, "start": 707.04, "text": "people."}, {"end": 707.44, "start": 707.36, "text": "So"}, {"end": 707.52, "start": 707.44, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 707.76, "start": 707.52, "text": "not"}, {"end": 708.08, "start": 707.76, "text": "like"}, {"end": 708.88, "start": 708.08, "text": "deterministically"}, {"end": 709.36, "start": 708.88, "text": "doing"}, {"end": 710.0, "start": 709.36, "text": "anything"}, {"end": 710.52, "start": 710.0, "text": "necessarily"}, {"end": 710.84, "start": 710.52, "text": "better,"}, {"end": 710.88, "start": 710.84, "text": "but"}, {"end": 711.12, "start": 710.88, "text": "maybe"}, {"end": 711.32, "start": 711.12, "text": "like"}, {"end": 711.72, "start": 711.32, "text": "on"}, {"end": 712.08, "start": 711.72, "text": "average"}, {"end": 712.32, "start": 712.08, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 712.76, "start": 712.32, "text": "delegating"}, {"end": 713.24, "start": 712.76, "text": "to"}, {"end": 713.44, "start": 713.24, "text": "better"}, {"end": 713.92, "start": 713.44, "text": "people"}, {"end": 714.24, "start": 713.92, "text": "slightly"}, {"end": 715.6, "start": 714.24, "text": "more"}, {"end": 716.04, "start": 715.6, "text": "often."}, {"end": 716.44, "start": 716.04, "text": "Yeah,"}, {"end": 716.52, "start": 716.44, "text": "you"}, {"end": 716.72, "start": 716.52, "text": "choose"}, {"end": 716.76, "start": 716.72, "text": "someone"}, {"end": 716.96, "start": 716.76, "text": "according"}, {"end": 717.2, "start": 716.96, "text": "to"}, {"end": 717.52, "start": 717.2, "text": "this"}, {"end": 717.68, "start": 717.52, "text": "and"}, {"end": 717.68, "start": 717.68, "text": "you"}, {"end": 718.44, "start": 717.68, "text": "do"}, {"end": 718.8, "start": 718.44, "text": "this"}, {"end": 718.84, "start": 718.8, "text": "for"}, {"end": 719.96, "start": 718.84, "text": "everybody."}], "text": " according to this one minus three fifths of maybe 40% of the time you tend to delegate. And then condition on you delegating, you sort of place weight on everyone else according to this. And I very conveniently chose these numbers, so they add up to 100. So maybe you have 9% of the time you're delegating to each of these blue people and 16% to these people. So you're not like deterministically doing anything necessarily better, but maybe like on average you're delegating to better people slightly more often. Yeah, you choose someone according to this and you do this for everybody."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 722.88, "start": 720.0, "text": "So"}, {"end": 723.44, "start": 722.88, "text": "some"}, {"end": 723.64, "start": 723.44, "text": "prior"}, {"end": 724.56, "start": 723.64, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 724.84, "start": 724.56, "text": "results"}, {"end": 724.96, "start": 724.84, "text": "from"}, {"end": 725.0, "start": 724.96, "text": "our"}, {"end": 725.28, "start": 725.0, "text": "last"}, {"end": 725.88, "start": 725.28, "text": "paper"}, {"end": 726.04, "start": 725.88, "text": "is"}, {"end": 727.0, "start": 726.04, "text": "that"}, {"end": 727.12, "start": 727.0, "text": "as"}, {"end": 727.56, "start": 727.12, "text": "long"}, {"end": 727.56, "start": 727.56, "text": "as"}, {"end": 728.0, "start": 727.56, "text": "these"}, {"end": 728.4, "start": 728.0, "text": "behavior"}, {"end": 729.04, "start": 728.4, "text": "functions"}, {"end": 729.52, "start": 729.04, "text": "are"}, {"end": 729.96, "start": 729.52, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 730.04, "start": 729.96, "text": "of"}, {"end": 730.04, "start": 730.04, "text": "moving"}, {"end": 730.04, "start": 730.04, "text": "in"}, {"end": 730.28, "start": 730.04, "text": "the"}, {"end": 730.52, "start": 730.28, "text": "right"}, {"end": 731.48, "start": 730.52, "text": "direction,"}, {"end": 732.28, "start": 731.48, "text": "so"}, {"end": 732.48, "start": 732.28, "text": "if"}, {"end": 733.2, "start": 732.48, "text": "the"}, {"end": 733.88, "start": 733.2, "text": "more"}, {"end": 734.28, "start": 733.88, "text": "knowledgeable"}, {"end": 734.76, "start": 734.28, "text": "you"}, {"end": 734.88, "start": 734.76, "text": "are"}, {"end": 734.88, "start": 734.88, "text": "on"}, {"end": 735.04, "start": 734.88, "text": "the"}, {"end": 735.12, "start": 735.04, "text": "topic,"}, {"end": 735.4, "start": 735.12, "text": "the"}, {"end": 735.68, "start": 735.4, "text": "less"}, {"end": 735.88, "start": 735.68, "text": "likely"}, {"end": 736.32, "start": 735.88, "text": "you"}, {"end": 736.52, "start": 736.32, "text": "are"}, {"end": 737.4, "start": 736.52, "text": "to"}, {"end": 737.8, "start": 737.4, "text": "delegate."}, {"end": 738.52, "start": 737.8, "text": "And"}, {"end": 738.64, "start": 738.52, "text": "in"}, {"end": 739.0, "start": 738.64, "text": "addition"}, {"end": 739.0, "start": 739.0, "text": "to"}, {"end": 739.4, "start": 739.0, "text": "this,"}, {"end": 740.2, "start": 739.4, "text": "when"}, {"end": 740.44, "start": 740.2, "text": "you"}, {"end": 740.52, "start": 740.44, "text": "do"}, {"end": 741.08, "start": 740.52, "text": "decide"}, {"end": 741.16, "start": 741.08, "text": "to"}, {"end": 741.8, "start": 741.16, "text": "delegate,"}, {"end": 742.16, "start": 741.8, "text": "you"}, {"end": 742.96, "start": 742.16, "text": "slightly"}, {"end": 743.16, "start": 742.96, "text": "more"}, {"end": 743.16, "start": 743.16, "text": "frequently"}, {"end": 743.52, "start": 743.16, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 743.64, "start": 743.52, "text": "to"}, {"end": 743.76, "start": 743.64, "text": "people"}, {"end": 743.84, "start": 743.76, "text": "who"}, {"end": 744.44, "start": 743.84, "text": "are"}, {"end": 744.72, "start": 744.44, "text": "more"}, {"end": 745.24, "start": 744.72, "text": "knowledgeable."}, {"end": 745.48, "start": 745.24, "text": "Not"}, {"end": 746.0, "start": 745.48, "text": "deterministically,"}, {"end": 746.36, "start": 746.0, "text": "sometimes"}, {"end": 746.52, "start": 746.36, "text": "you"}, {"end": 746.76, "start": 746.52, "text": "can"}, {"end": 746.96, "start": 746.76, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 747.44, "start": 746.96, "text": "downwards,"}, {"end": 747.72, "start": 747.44, "text": "but"}, {"end": 748.4, "start": 747.72, "text": "at"}, {"end": 748.68, "start": 748.4, "text": "least"}, {"end": 749.0, "start": 748.68, "text": "on"}, {"end": 749.16, "start": 749.0, "text": "average,"}, {"end": 749.24, "start": 749.16, "text": "you"}, {"end": 749.48, "start": 749.24, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 749.48, "start": 749.48, "text": "to"}, {"end": 749.48, "start": 749.48, "text": "be"}, {"end": 749.6, "start": 749.48, "text": "doing"}, {"end": 749.96, "start": 749.6, "text": "something"}], "text": " So some prior theoretical results from our last paper is that as long as these behavior functions are sort of moving in the right direction, so if the more knowledgeable you are on the topic, the less likely you are to delegate. And in addition to this, when you do decide to delegate, you slightly more frequently delegate to people who are more knowledgeable. Not deterministically, sometimes you can delegate downwards, but at least on average, you tend to be doing something"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 750.52, "start": 750.0, "text": "thing"}, {"end": 750.84, "start": 750.52, "text": "slightly"}, {"end": 752.56, "start": 750.84, "text": "better."}, {"end": 752.84, "start": 752.56, "text": "This"}, {"end": 753.68, "start": 752.84, "text": "implies,"}, {"end": 753.96, "start": 753.68, "text": "again,"}, {"end": 754.2, "start": 753.96, "text": "according"}, {"end": 754.24, "start": 754.2, "text": "to"}, {"end": 754.4, "start": 754.24, "text": "these"}, {"end": 754.56, "start": 754.4, "text": "other"}, {"end": 754.92, "start": 754.56, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 755.24, "start": 754.92, "text": "properties,"}, {"end": 755.24, "start": 755.24, "text": "that"}, {"end": 755.84, "start": 755.24, "text": "liturinocracy"}, {"end": 755.84, "start": 755.84, "text": "is"}, {"end": 756.08, "start": 755.84, "text": "performing"}, {"end": 756.64, "start": 756.08, "text": "well."}, {"end": 756.88, "start": 756.64, "text": "We"}, {"end": 757.12, "start": 756.88, "text": "expect"}, {"end": 757.2, "start": 757.12, "text": "it"}, {"end": 757.36, "start": 757.2, "text": "to"}, {"end": 757.88, "start": 757.36, "text": "frequently"}, {"end": 758.52, "start": 757.88, "text": "outperform"}, {"end": 758.84, "start": 758.52, "text": "direct"}, {"end": 759.24, "start": 758.84, "text": "democracy."}, {"end": 759.24, "start": 759.24, "text": "And"}, {"end": 759.24, "start": 759.24, "text": "so"}, {"end": 760.36, "start": 759.24, "text": "what"}, {"end": 760.68, "start": 760.36, "text": "do"}, {"end": 761.12, "start": 760.68, "text": "we"}, {"end": 761.64, "start": 761.12, "text": "see"}, {"end": 761.64, "start": 761.64, "text": "in"}, {"end": 761.68, "start": 761.64, "text": "the"}, {"end": 763.08, "start": 761.68, "text": "data?"}, {"end": 763.4, "start": 763.08, "text": "So"}, {"end": 763.56, "start": 763.4, "text": "we"}, {"end": 764.08, "start": 763.56, "text": "can"}, {"end": 764.36, "start": 764.08, "text": "first"}, {"end": 764.88, "start": 764.36, "text": "fit"}, {"end": 765.2, "start": 764.88, "text": "this"}, {"end": 765.52, "start": 765.2, "text": "Q"}, {"end": 765.96, "start": 765.52, "text": "function."}, {"end": 766.0, "start": 765.96, "text": "This"}, {"end": 766.12, "start": 766.0, "text": "is"}, {"end": 766.28, "start": 766.12, "text": "the"}, {"end": 766.72, "start": 766.28, "text": "probability"}, {"end": 766.76, "start": 766.72, "text": "you"}, {"end": 767.76, "start": 766.76, "text": "delegate."}, {"end": 768.12, "start": 767.76, "text": "So"}, {"end": 768.48, "start": 768.12, "text": "on"}, {"end": 768.64, "start": 768.48, "text": "the"}, {"end": 768.92, "start": 768.64, "text": "bottom"}, {"end": 769.12, "start": 768.92, "text": "is"}, {"end": 769.48, "start": 769.12, "text": "your"}, {"end": 770.28, "start": 769.48, "text": "estimated"}, {"end": 770.8, "start": 770.28, "text": "expertise,"}, {"end": 770.92, "start": 770.8, "text": "how"}, {"end": 771.32, "start": 770.92, "text": "knowledgeable"}, {"end": 771.32, "start": 771.32, "text": "we"}, {"end": 771.4, "start": 771.32, "text": "think"}, {"end": 771.56, "start": 771.4, "text": "you"}, {"end": 772.32, "start": 771.56, "text": "are."}, {"end": 772.52, "start": 772.32, "text": "And"}, {"end": 772.76, "start": 772.52, "text": "on"}, {"end": 773.12, "start": 772.76, "text": "the"}, {"end": 773.4, "start": 773.12, "text": "right"}, {"end": 773.6, "start": 773.4, "text": "is"}, {"end": 773.84, "start": 773.6, "text": "how"}, {"end": 774.04, "start": 773.84, "text": "frequently"}, {"end": 774.24, "start": 774.04, "text": "you"}, {"end": 774.4, "start": 774.24, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 774.48, "start": 774.4, "text": "to"}, {"end": 774.84, "start": 774.48, "text": "delegate."}, {"end": 774.96, "start": 774.84, "text": "And"}, {"end": 775.16, "start": 774.96, "text": "we"}, {"end": 775.52, "start": 775.16, "text": "really"}, {"end": 775.68, "start": 775.52, "text": "do"}, {"end": 776.04, "start": 775.68, "text": "see,"}, {"end": 776.2, "start": 776.04, "text": "on"}, {"end": 776.48, "start": 776.2, "text": "average,"}, {"end": 776.96, "start": 776.48, "text": "it"}, {"end": 777.4, "start": 776.96, "text": "does"}, {"end": 777.6, "start": 777.4, "text": "seem"}, {"end": 777.8, "start": 777.6, "text": "to"}, {"end": 777.8, "start": 777.8, "text": "be"}, {"end": 778.36, "start": 777.8, "text": "decreasing"}, {"end": 778.48, "start": 778.36, "text": "at"}, {"end": 778.56, "start": 778.48, "text": "a"}, {"end": 778.84, "start": 778.56, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 779.32, "start": 778.84, "text": "statistically"}, {"end": 779.96, "start": 779.32, "text": "significant"}], "text": " thing slightly better. This implies, again, according to these other theoretical properties, that liturinocracy is performing well. We expect it to frequently outperform direct democracy. And so what do we see in the data? So we can first fit this Q function. This is the probability you delegate. So on the bottom is your estimated expertise, how knowledgeable we think you are. And on the right is how frequently you tend to delegate. And we really do see, on average, it does seem to be decreasing at a pretty statistically significant"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 780.92, "start": 780.0, "text": "way."}, {"end": 781.28, "start": 780.92, "text": "So"}, {"end": 781.6, "start": 781.28, "text": "this"}, {"end": 781.8, "start": 781.6, "text": "is"}, {"end": 782.16, "start": 781.8, "text": "encouraging."}, {"end": 782.28, "start": 782.16, "text": "It's"}, {"end": 782.48, "start": 782.28, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 782.52, "start": 782.48, "text": "of"}, {"end": 782.84, "start": 782.52, "text": "matching"}, {"end": 783.2, "start": 782.84, "text": "our"}, {"end": 783.6, "start": 783.2, "text": "theoretical"}, {"end": 784.04, "start": 783.6, "text": "sufficient"}, {"end": 785.44, "start": 784.04, "text": "conditions."}, {"end": 785.8, "start": 785.44, "text": "And"}, {"end": 786.28, "start": 785.8, "text": "similarly"}, {"end": 786.68, "start": 786.28, "text": "for"}, {"end": 786.88, "start": 786.68, "text": "this"}, {"end": 787.12, "start": 786.88, "text": "phi"}, {"end": 787.44, "start": 787.12, "text": "function,"}, {"end": 787.72, "start": 787.44, "text": "where"}, {"end": 787.72, "start": 787.72, "text": "do"}, {"end": 788.0, "start": 787.72, "text": "people"}, {"end": 788.32, "start": 788.0, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 788.6, "start": 788.32, "text": "to"}, {"end": 789.6, "start": 788.6, "text": "delegate?"}, {"end": 790.12, "start": 789.6, "text": "So"}, {"end": 790.68, "start": 790.12, "text": "on"}, {"end": 790.84, "start": 790.68, "text": "the"}, {"end": 791.68, "start": 790.84, "text": "bottom"}, {"end": 791.92, "start": 791.68, "text": "is"}, {"end": 792.28, "start": 791.92, "text": "the"}, {"end": 793.04, "start": 792.28, "text": "estimated"}, {"end": 793.56, "start": 793.04, "text": "knowledge"}, {"end": 793.72, "start": 793.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 794.24, "start": 793.72, "text": "the"}, {"end": 795.36, "start": 794.24, "text": "person"}, {"end": 795.52, "start": 795.36, "text": "doing"}, {"end": 795.76, "start": 795.52, "text": "the"}, {"end": 797.0, "start": 795.76, "text": "delegation."}, {"end": 797.36, "start": 797.0, "text": "And"}, {"end": 797.68, "start": 797.36, "text": "on"}, {"end": 797.84, "start": 797.68, "text": "the"}, {"end": 798.16, "start": 797.84, "text": "right"}, {"end": 798.28, "start": 798.16, "text": "is"}, {"end": 798.4, "start": 798.28, "text": "the"}, {"end": 798.68, "start": 798.4, "text": "person"}, {"end": 798.92, "start": 798.68, "text": "they"}, {"end": 799.16, "start": 798.92, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 799.16, "start": 799.16, "text": "to"}, {"end": 799.36, "start": 799.16, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 799.52, "start": 799.36, "text": "to."}, {"end": 799.68, "start": 799.52, "text": "So"}, {"end": 799.76, "start": 799.68, "text": "we're"}, {"end": 800.24, "start": 799.76, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 800.4, "start": 800.24, "text": "of"}, {"end": 800.52, "start": 800.4, "text": "looking"}, {"end": 800.52, "start": 800.52, "text": "at"}, {"end": 800.64, "start": 800.52, "text": "this"}, {"end": 800.8, "start": 800.64, "text": "heat"}, {"end": 801.2, "start": 800.8, "text": "map."}, {"end": 801.52, "start": 801.2, "text": "How"}, {"end": 801.68, "start": 801.52, "text": "often"}, {"end": 801.68, "start": 801.68, "text": "do"}, {"end": 801.84, "start": 801.68, "text": "people"}, {"end": 801.84, "start": 801.84, "text": "of"}, {"end": 801.84, "start": 801.84, "text": "one"}, {"end": 801.88, "start": 801.84, "text": "knowledge"}, {"end": 802.12, "start": 801.88, "text": "or"}, {"end": 802.52, "start": 802.12, "text": "level"}, {"end": 802.56, "start": 802.52, "text": "of"}, {"end": 803.48, "start": 802.56, "text": "knowledge"}, {"end": 803.96, "start": 803.48, "text": "delegate"}, {"end": 803.96, "start": 803.96, "text": "to"}, {"end": 804.48, "start": 803.96, "text": "someone"}, {"end": 804.8, "start": 804.48, "text": "else?"}, {"end": 805.32, "start": 804.8, "text": "And"}, {"end": 805.6, "start": 805.32, "text": "what"}, {"end": 806.08, "start": 805.6, "text": "we"}, {"end": 806.32, "start": 806.08, "text": "really"}, {"end": 806.44, "start": 806.32, "text": "want"}, {"end": 806.88, "start": 806.44, "text": "to"}, {"end": 807.36, "start": 806.88, "text": "see"}, {"end": 807.68, "start": 807.36, "text": "and"}, {"end": 807.96, "start": 807.68, "text": "what"}, {"end": 808.44, "start": 807.96, "text": "very"}, {"end": 808.92, "start": 808.44, "text": "encouragingly"}, {"end": 809.08, "start": 808.92, "text": "we"}, {"end": 809.24, "start": 809.08, "text": "do"}, {"end": 809.68, "start": 809.24, "text": "see"}, {"end": 809.84, "start": 809.68, "text": "is"}, {"end": 809.84, "start": 809.84, "text": "that"}, {"end": 809.84, "start": 809.84, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 809.96, "start": 809.84, "text": "sort"}], "text": " way. So this is encouraging. It's sort of matching our theoretical sufficient conditions. And similarly for this phi function, where do people tend to delegate? So on the bottom is the estimated knowledge of the person doing the delegation. And on the right is the person they tend to delegate to. So we're sort of looking at this heat map. How often do people of one knowledge or level of knowledge delegate to someone else? And what we really want to see and what very encouragingly we do see is that it's sort"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 810.96, "start": 810.0, "text": "increasing"}, {"end": 811.12, "start": 810.96, "text": "when"}, {"end": 811.24, "start": 811.12, "text": "you"}, {"end": 811.4, "start": 811.24, "text": "move"}, {"end": 811.6, "start": 811.4, "text": "left"}, {"end": 811.68, "start": 811.6, "text": "to"}, {"end": 812.32, "start": 811.68, "text": "right."}, {"end": 812.92, "start": 812.32, "text": "You're"}, {"end": 812.92, "start": 812.92, "text": "more"}, {"end": 813.0, "start": 812.92, "text": "often"}, {"end": 813.28, "start": 813.0, "text": "delegating"}, {"end": 813.28, "start": 813.28, "text": "to"}, {"end": 813.28, "start": 813.28, "text": "people"}, {"end": 813.28, "start": 813.28, "text": "that"}, {"end": 813.92, "start": 813.28, "text": "tend"}, {"end": 814.04, "start": 813.92, "text": "to"}, {"end": 814.16, "start": 814.04, "text": "be"}, {"end": 814.32, "start": 814.16, "text": 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839.96, "start": 839.08, "text": "other"}], "text": " increasing when you move left to right. You're more often delegating to people that tend to be more knowledgeable on the topic. So again, this is very exciting. It sort of fits our sufficient conditions in theoretical paper, which would imply things tend to work out overall. And again, we see that from the other experiments. So just to wrap up with a few takeaways. So liquid moxie really is, I think it's a very exciting new voting paradigm. I'm not as much focusing, you know, at a national scale, maybe it's very hard to implement. There's other"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 840.52, "start": 840.0, "text": "drawbacks,"}, {"end": 840.56, "start": 840.52, "text": "but"}, {"end": 840.88, "start": 840.56, "text": "I"}, {"end": 841.0, "start": 840.88, "text": "think"}, {"end": 841.24, "start": 841.0, "text": "there's"}, {"end": 841.48, "start": 841.24, "text": "many"}, {"end": 842.24, "start": 841.48, "text": "places"}, {"end": 842.52, "start": 842.24, "text": "it"}, {"end": 842.68, "start": 842.52, "text": "really"}, {"end": 842.72, "start": 842.68, "text": "could"}, {"end": 843.0, "start": 842.72, "text": "be"}, {"end": 843.36, "start": 843.0, "text": "used"}, {"end": 843.56, "start": 843.36, "text": "and"}, {"end": 843.64, "start": 843.56, "text": "has"}, {"end": 843.76, "start": 843.64, "text": "lots"}, {"end": 843.8, "start": 843.76, "text": "of"}, {"end": 844.32, "start": 843.8, "text": "intangible"}, {"end": 844.76, "start": 844.32, "text": "benefits"}, {"end": 845.28, "start": 844.76, "text": "that"}, {"end": 845.28, 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"text": "And"}, {"end": 868.0, "start": 867.56, "text": "our"}, {"end": 868.44, "start": 868.0, "text": "goal"}, {"end": 868.52, "start": 868.44, "text": "is"}, {"end": 868.52, "start": 868.52, "text": "just"}, {"end": 868.76, "start": 868.52, "text": "to"}, {"end": 868.96, "start": 868.76, "text": "identify"}, {"end": 869.64, "start": 868.96, "text": "regimes"}, {"end": 869.96, "start": 869.64, "text": "where"}], "text": " drawbacks, but I think there's many places it really could be used and has lots of intangible benefits that I'm not describing this work. Maybe you feel more represented or for whatever reason. And there's been lots of back and forth in the theory. Some theoretical papers say like, oh, yes, it looks like it's doing really well. And other things say, oh, no, it's not looking great. Maybe sometimes we expect it to not work too well. But our experiment suggests, at least in some cases, in certain contexts, we really do expect it to work well. And our goal is just to identify regimes where"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 870.16, "start": 870.0, "text": "would"}, {"end": 870.48, "start": 870.16, "text": "expect"}, {"end": 870.68, "start": 870.48, "text": "this"}, {"end": 870.96, "start": 870.68, "text": "to"}, {"end": 871.6, "start": 870.96, "text": "happen"}, {"end": 872.04, "start": 871.6, "text": "and"}, {"end": 872.32, "start": 872.04, "text": "hopefully"}, {"end": 872.6, "start": 872.32, "text": "implement"}, {"end": 872.68, "start": 872.6, "text": "it"}, {"end": 872.8, "start": 872.68, "text": "at"}, {"end": 873.08, "start": 872.8, "text": "least"}, {"end": 874.0, "start": 873.08, "text": "here."}, {"end": 874.08, "start": 874.0, "text": "But"}, {"end": 874.56, "start": 874.08, "text": "as"}, {"end": 874.88, "start": 874.56, "text": "for"}, {"end": 875.48, "start": 874.88, "text": "future"}, {"end": 876.04, "start": 875.48, "text": "work,"}, {"end": 876.28, "start": 876.04, "text": "these"}, {"end": 876.6, "start": 876.28, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 876.88, "start": 876.6, "text": "truly"}, {"end": 877.0, "start": 876.88, "text": "are"}, {"end": 877.28, "start": 877.0, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 877.92, "start": 877.28, "text": "preliminary."}, {"end": 878.0, "start": 877.92, "text": "I"}, {"end": 878.04, "start": 878.0, "text": "think"}, {"end": 878.24, "start": 878.04, "text": "they're"}, {"end": 878.24, "start": 878.24, "text": "in"}, {"end": 878.48, "start": 878.24, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 878.76, "start": 878.48, "text": "small"}, {"end": 878.96, "start": 878.76, "text": "scale"}, {"end": 879.4, "start": 878.96, "text": "settings,"}, {"end": 879.64, "start": 879.4, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 880.48, "start": 879.64, "text": "specific."}, {"end": 880.76, "start": 880.48, "text": "And"}, {"end": 881.24, "start": 880.76, "text": "we"}, {"end": 881.52, "start": 881.24, "text": "just"}, {"end": 882.0, "start": 881.52, "text": "really"}, {"end": 882.24, "start": 882.0, "text": "need"}, {"end": 882.52, "start": 882.24, "text": "more"}, {"end": 882.76, "start": 882.52, "text": "experiments"}, {"end": 882.96, "start": 882.76, "text": "in"}, {"end": 883.24, "start": 882.96, "text": "different"}, {"end": 883.88, "start": 883.24, "text": "contexts,"}, {"end": 884.6, "start": 883.88, "text": "bigger"}, {"end": 885.28, "start": 884.6, "text": "situations,"}, {"end": 885.56, "start": 885.28, "text": "different"}, {"end": 885.72, "start": 885.56, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 885.8, "start": 885.72, "text": "of"}, {"end": 886.4, "start": 885.8, "text": "social"}, {"end": 887.0, "start": 886.4, "text": "connections."}, {"end": 887.32, "start": 887.0, "text": "But"}, {"end": 887.52, "start": 887.32, "text": "either"}, {"end": 887.92, "start": 887.52, "text": "way,"}, {"end": 888.08, "start": 887.92, "text": "I"}, {"end": 888.2, "start": 888.08, "text": "think"}, {"end": 888.4, "start": 888.2, "text": "very"}, {"end": 888.72, "start": 888.4, "text": "exciting"}, {"end": 889.32, "start": 888.72, "text": "results."}, {"end": 889.52, "start": 889.32, "text": "And"}, {"end": 889.72, "start": 889.52, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 890.36, "start": 889.72, "text": "excited"}, {"end": 890.6, "start": 890.36, "text": "for"}, {"end": 890.88, "start": 890.6, "text": "the"}, {"end": 891.68, "start": 890.88, "text": "future"}, {"end": 891.72, "start": 891.68, "text": "of"}, {"end": 892.96, "start": 891.72, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 897.0, "start": 892.96, "text": "democracy."}, {"end": 897.04, "start": 897.0, "text": "Thank"}, {"end": 897.28, "start": 897.04, "text": "you"}, {"end": 898.84, "start": 897.28, "text": "very"}, {"end": 899.96, "start": 898.84, "text": "much."}], "text": " would expect this to happen and hopefully implement it at least here. But as for future work, these experiments truly are pretty preliminary. I think they're in pretty small scale settings, pretty specific. And we just really need more experiments in different contexts, bigger situations, different sort of social connections. But either way, I think very exciting results. And I'm excited for the future of liquid democracy. Thank you very much."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 905.48, "start": 900.0, "text": "Hey,"}, {"end": 906.28, "start": 905.48, "text": "thanks"}, {"end": 907.32, "start": 906.28, "text": "for"}, {"end": 907.68, "start": 907.32, "text": "your"}, {"end": 907.84, "start": 907.68, "text": "talk."}, {"end": 908.16, "start": 907.84, "text": "Do"}, {"end": 908.28, "start": 908.16, "text": "you"}, {"end": 908.6, "start": 908.28, "text": "think"}, {"end": 908.92, "start": 908.6, "text": "that"}, {"end": 908.96, "start": 908.92, "text": "in"}, {"end": 909.8, "start": 908.96, "text": "real-world"}, {"end": 910.04, "start": 909.8, "text": "use"}, {"end": 910.6, "start": 910.04, "text": "cases"}, {"end": 910.8, "start": 910.6, "text": "there"}, {"end": 910.84, "start": 910.8, "text": "could"}, {"end": 911.08, "start": 910.84, "text": "be"}, {"end": 911.28, "start": 911.08, "text": "a"}, {"end": 912.12, "start": 911.28, "text": "psychological"}, {"end": 912.44, "start": 912.12, "text": "effect"}, {"end": 912.84, "start": 912.44, "text": "from"}, {"end": 913.32, "start": 912.84, "text": "knowing"}, {"end": 913.72, "start": 913.32, "text": "that"}, {"end": 914.16, "start": 913.72, "text": "many"}, {"end": 914.56, "start": 914.16, "text": "others"}, {"end": 914.6, "start": 914.56, "text": "have"}, {"end": 915.6, "start": 914.6, "text": "delegated"}, {"end": 916.2, "start": 915.6, "text": "votes"}, {"end": 916.6, "start": 916.2, "text": "to"}, {"end": 917.2, "start": 916.6, "text": "you?"}, {"end": 917.48, "start": 917.2, "text": "Yes,"}, {"end": 917.68, "start": 917.48, "text": "this"}, {"end": 917.96, "start": 917.68, "text": "is"}, {"end": 918.32, "start": 917.96, "text": "a"}, {"end": 918.56, "start": 918.32, "text": "really"}, {"end": 918.56, "start": 918.56, "text": "good"}, {"end": 918.88, "start": 918.56, "text": "point"}, {"end": 919.12, "start": 918.88, "text": "and"}, {"end": 919.48, "start": 919.12, "text": "something"}, {"end": 919.48, "start": 919.48, "text": "that"}, {"end": 919.8, "start": 919.48, "text": "people"}, {"end": 920.08, "start": 919.8, "text": "think"}, {"end": 921.0, "start": 920.08, "text": "about"}, {"end": 921.4, "start": 921.0, "text": "a"}, {"end": 921.76, "start": 921.4, "text": "lot."}, {"end": 922.52, "start": 921.76, "text": "In"}, {"end": 923.48, "start": 922.52, "text": "particular,"}, {"end": 923.76, "start": 923.48, "text": "in"}, {"end": 924.4, "start": 923.76, "text": "real-world"}, {"end": 924.88, "start": 924.4, "text": "use"}, {"end": 925.48, "start": 924.88, "text": "cases,"}, {"end": 925.52, "start": 925.48, "text": "you"}, {"end": 926.56, "start": 925.52, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 926.96, "start": 926.56, "text": "of"}, {"end": 927.16, "start": 926.96, "text": "need"}, {"end": 927.32, "start": 927.16, "text": "a"}, {"end": 928.04, "start": 927.32, "text": "lot"}, {"end": 928.12, "start": 928.04, "text": "of"}, {"end": 928.12, "start": 928.12, "text": "this"}, {"end": 928.32, "start": 928.12, "text": "public"}, {"end": 929.04, "start": 928.32, "text": "information"}, {"end": 929.32, "start": 929.04, "text": "to"}, {"end": 929.64, "start": 929.32, "text": "be"}, {"end": 929.96, "start": 929.64, "text": "available."}], "text": " Hey, thanks for your talk. Do you think that in real-world use cases there could be a psychological effect from knowing that many others have delegated votes to you? Yes, this is a really good point and something that people think about a lot. In particular, in real-world use cases, you sort of need a lot of this public information to be available."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 930.44, "start": 930.0, "text": "Even"}, {"end": 930.72, "start": 930.44, "text": "if"}, {"end": 931.12, "start": 930.72, "text": "you're"}, {"end": 931.4, "start": 931.12, "text": "delegating,"}, {"end": 931.48, "start": 931.4, "text": "you"}, {"end": 931.48, "start": 931.48, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 931.48, "start": 931.48, "text": "of"}, {"end": 931.48, "start": 931.48, "text": "need"}, {"end": 931.6, "start": 931.48, "text": "to"}, {"end": 931.8, "start": 931.6, "text": "know,"}, {"end": 932.0, "start": 931.8, "text": "like,"}, {"end": 932.2, "start": 932.0, "text": "what"}, {"end": 932.48, "start": 932.2, "text": "happened"}, {"end": 932.68, "start": 932.48, "text": "to"}, {"end": 932.84, "start": 932.68, "text": "my"}, {"end": 933.16, "start": 932.84, "text": "vote?"}, {"end": 933.28, "start": 933.16, "text": "Where"}, {"end": 933.4, "start": 933.28, 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"text": " Even if you're delegating, you sort of need to know, like, what happened to my vote? Where did it end up with? You know, who's delegating to me? You know, which is sort of goes against some other things we might want in voting, maybe like privacy type concerns. Yeah, and I think there's some evidence that maybe if you feel that you've got a lot of delegations, you're going to put more effort and hopefully make a better decision. I think there's just, you know, there's a lot of features to this problem. It's really hard to model everything, but, you know, I think that's, again, really exciting future work that we could hopefully look into."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 962.16, "start": 960.0, "text": "Hi."}, {"end": 963.48, "start": 962.16, "text": "Thanks"}, {"end": 963.68, "start": 963.48, "text": "a"}, {"end": 963.92, "start": 963.68, "text": "lot"}, {"end": 964.28, "start": 963.92, "text": "for"}, {"end": 964.76, "start": 964.28, "text": "the"}, {"end": 965.04, "start": 964.76, "text": "great"}, {"end": 965.24, "start": 965.04, "text": "talk"}, {"end": 965.44, "start": 965.24, "text": "and"}, {"end": 965.68, "start": 965.44, "text": "the"}, {"end": 966.04, "start": 965.68, "text": "paper."}, {"end": 967.28, "start": 966.04, "text": "So"}, {"end": 967.4, "start": 967.28, "text": "I'm"}, {"end": 967.52, "start": 967.4, "text": "not"}, {"end": 968.16, "start": 967.52, "text": "familiar"}, {"end": 968.6, "start": 968.16, "text": "with"}, {"end": 969.08, "start": 968.6, "text": "the"}, {"end": 969.44, "start": 969.08, "text": "literature,"}, {"end": 969.52, "start": 969.44, "text": "but"}, {"end": 969.68, "start": 969.52, "text": "I"}, {"end": 970.0, "start": 969.68, "text": "was"}, {"end": 970.24, "start": 970.0, "text": "very"}, {"end": 970.84, "start": 970.24, "text": "interested"}, {"end": 971.68, "start": 970.84, "text": "about"}, {"end": 972.0, "start": 971.68, "text": "the"}, {"end": 972.48, "start": 972.0, "text": "question"}, {"end": 972.6, "start": 972.48, "text": "of"}, {"end": 973.16, "start": 972.6, "text": "how"}, {"end": 973.48, "start": 973.16, "text": "the"}, {"end": 974.56, "start": 973.48, "text": "network"}, {"end": 975.04, "start": 974.56, "text": "structure,"}, {"end": 975.12, "start": 975.04, "text": "if"}, {"end": 975.44, "start": 975.12, "text": "you"}, {"end": 975.64, "start": 975.44, "text": "have"}, {"end": 975.64, "start": 975.64, "text": "some"}, {"end": 976.0, "start": 975.64, "text": "prior"}, {"end": 976.4, "start": 976.0, "text": "knowledge,"}, {"end": 976.6, "start": 976.4, "text": "can"}, {"end": 976.76, "start": 976.6, "text": "you"}, {"end": 977.08, "start": 976.76, "text": "tell"}, {"end": 978.04, "start": 977.08, "text": "whether"}, {"end": 978.28, "start": 978.04, "text": "liquid"}, {"end": 979.08, "start": 978.28, "text": "democracy"}, {"end": 979.32, "start": 979.08, "text": "would"}, {"end": 979.4, "start": 979.32, "text": "work?"}, {"end": 979.8, "start": 979.4, "text": "So"}, {"end": 980.12, "start": 979.8, "text": "because"}, {"end": 980.24, "start": 980.12, "text": "I"}, {"end": 980.6, "start": 980.24, "text": "assume"}, {"end": 980.88, "start": 980.6, "text": "that"}, {"end": 981.36, "start": 980.88, "text": "the"}, {"end": 981.6, "start": 981.36, "text": "problem"}, {"end": 982.04, "start": 981.6, "text": "with"}, {"end": 982.04, "start": 982.04, "text": "it"}, {"end": 982.28, "start": 982.04, "text": "can"}, {"end": 982.48, "start": 982.28, "text": "be"}, {"end": 982.48, "start": 982.48, "text": "if"}, {"end": 982.76, "start": 982.48, "text": "there's"}, {"end": 982.8, "start": 982.76, "text": "a"}, {"end": 983.24, "start": 982.8, "text": "crazy"}, {"end": 983.64, "start": 983.24, "text": "cult,"}, {"end": 983.8, "start": 983.64, "text": "like"}, {"end": 984.2, "start": 983.8, "text": "some"}, {"end": 985.16, "start": 984.2, "text": "person"}, {"end": 985.2, "start": 985.16, "text": "with"}, {"end": 985.36, "start": 985.2, "text": "a"}, {"end": 985.72, "start": 985.36, "text": "network"}, {"end": 985.72, "start": 985.72, "text": "and"}, {"end": 986.08, "start": 985.72, "text": "can"}, {"end": 986.4, "start": 986.08, "text": "make"}, {"end": 987.0, "start": 986.4, "text": "important"}, {"end": 987.64, "start": 987.0, "text": "decisions."}, {"end": 989.96, "start": 987.64, "text": "Yeah."}], "text": " Hi. Thanks a lot for the great talk and the paper. So I'm not familiar with the literature, but I was very interested about the question of how the network structure, if you have some prior knowledge, can you tell whether liquid democracy would work? So because I assume that the problem with it can be if there's a crazy cult, like some person with a network and can make important decisions. Yeah."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 990.24, "start": 990.0, "text": "So"}, {"end": 990.56, "start": 990.24, "text": "how"}, {"end": 990.72, "start": 990.56, "text": "would"}, {"end": 990.72, "start": 990.72, "text": "the"}, {"end": 991.16, "start": 990.72, "text": "network"}, {"end": 992.4, "start": 991.16, "text": "affect?"}, {"end": 993.0, "start": 992.4, "text": "Sort"}, {"end": 993.36, "start": 993.0, "text": "of"}, {"end": 993.56, "start": 993.36, "text": "these"}, {"end": 993.84, "start": 993.56, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 994.04, "start": 993.84, "text": "of"}, {"end": 994.12, "start": 994.04, "text": "like"}, {"end": 994.32, "start": 994.12, "text": "super"}, {"end": 994.88, "start": 994.32, "text": "voters"}, {"end": 995.2, "start": 994.88, "text": "that"}, {"end": 995.28, "start": 995.2, "text": "are"}, {"end": 995.52, "start": 995.28, "text": "getting"}, {"end": 995.84, "start": 995.52, "text": "lots"}, {"end": 995.96, "start": 995.84, "text": "of"}, {"end": 996.52, "start": 995.96, 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"some"}, {"end": 1017.04, "start": 1016.68, "text": "cases"}, {"end": 1017.04, "start": 1017.04, "text": "it"}, {"end": 1017.32, "start": 1017.04, "text": "can"}, {"end": 1017.76, "start": 1017.32, "text": "work"}, {"end": 1018.08, "start": 1017.76, "text": "well"}, {"end": 1018.08, "start": 1018.08, "text": "if"}, {"end": 1018.08, "start": 1018.08, "text": "that"}, {"end": 1018.08, "start": 1018.08, "text": "one"}, {"end": 1018.4, "start": 1018.08, "text": "person"}, {"end": 1018.56, "start": 1018.4, "text": "who's"}, {"end": 1018.88, "start": 1018.56, "text": "receiving"}, {"end": 1019.12, "start": 1018.88, "text": "lots"}, {"end": 1019.12, "start": 1019.12, "text": "of"}, {"end": 1019.56, "start": 1019.12, "text": "delegations"}, {"end": 1019.72, "start": 1019.56, "text": "really"}, {"end": 1019.96, "start": 1019.72, "text": "is,"}], "text": " So how would the network affect? Sort of these sort of like super voters that are getting lots of delegations? Right. Yeah. So this is something that happens in practice. I think it is a pretty major worry. So again, like sort of where the theory falls apart or where they would say it doesn't work well is situations like this, where sort of one person's getting so many votes that you kind of lose this, like, you know, spreading the knowledge across the site and like asking lots of people. You know, I think in some cases it can work well if that one person who's receiving lots of delegations really is,"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 1020.08, "start": 1020.0, "text": "a"}, {"end": 1020.4, "start": 1020.08, "text": "pretty"}, {"end": 1020.64, "start": 1020.4, "text": "informed"}, {"end": 1021.24, "start": 1020.64, "text": "person."}, {"end": 1021.32, "start": 1021.24, "text": "In"}, {"end": 1021.44, "start": 1021.32, "text": "some"}, {"end": 1021.52, "start": 1021.44, "text": "cases"}, {"end": 1021.76, "start": 1021.52, "text": "it"}, {"end": 1021.96, "start": 1021.76, "text": "won't."}, {"end": 1022.16, "start": 1021.96, "text": "So"}, {"end": 1022.32, "start": 1022.16, "text": "again,"}, {"end": 1022.44, "start": 1022.32, "text": "it's"}, {"end": 1022.64, "start": 1022.44, "text": "very"}, {"end": 1023.12, "start": 1022.64, "text": "context"}, {"end": 1023.64, "start": 1023.12, "text": "dependent."}, {"end": 1023.76, "start": 1023.64, "text": "I"}, {"end": 1023.92, "start": 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In some cases it won't. So again, it's very context dependent. I think we just need more experiments. I mean, this was hopeful that even in situations where someone was receiving quite a few delegations, it tended to perform well. So maybe we'd be hopeful of that. But again, I don't want to claim that generalizes is always true. I think just more experiments are needed. Yeah. Thank you. I see a bunch of questions. Maybe we have time for one or two more. I'm wondering in the experiment, did you collect demographic information? 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So I don't think we did. We did do these in pretty small classroom environments where I think the demographics weren't too mixed. Yeah, I mean, I think, again, we just need more experiments. This really is small scale. I sort of was hoping... ...we need to take into account, and I think that's a really good point. That is something we definitely should be looking into. So thank you."}, {"chunks": [{"end": 1081.76, "start": 1080.0, "text": "Thanks"}, {"end": 1081.88, "start": 1081.76, "text": "so"}, {"end": 1082.16, "start": 1081.88, "text": "much."}, {"end": 1082.44, "start": 1082.16, "text": "Really"}, {"end": 1083.08, "start": 1082.44, "text": "interesting"}, {"end": 1083.28, "start": 1083.08, "text": "work."}, {"end": 1083.52, "start": 1083.28, "text": "I"}, {"end": 1083.76, "start": 1083.52, "text": "might"}, {"end": 1083.84, "start": 1083.76, "text": "have"}, {"end": 1084.12, "start": 1083.84, "text": "missed"}, {"end": 1084.32, "start": 1084.12, "text": "it,"}, {"end": 1084.6, "start": 1084.32, "text": "but"}, {"end": 1084.6, "start": 1084.6, "text": "I"}, {"end": 1084.6, "start": 1084.6, "text": "was"}, {"end": 1085.12, "start": 1084.6, "text": "curious"}, {"end": 1085.84, "start": 1085.12, "text": "how"}, {"end": 1086.24, "start": 1085.84, "text": "agents"}, {"end": 1086.48, "start": 1086.24, "text": "learn"}, {"end": 1086.64, "start": 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Really interesting work. I might have missed it, but I was curious how agents learn their preferences over the nodes in the network. Is it a learning process or is it just, I mean, in theory work, it's probably just random, right? Sorry, what do you mean by learning, like deciding how to vote? Like the weights over the... Oh, yeah. So the way it tends to actually be implemented is it's sort of all public, which is maybe not the best thing, but people can see the whole graph. They can see who delegated to who. They can see"}, {"chunks": [{"end": 1110.52, "start": 1110.0, "text": "what"}, {"end": 1111.12, "start": 1110.52, "text": "delegations"}, {"end": 1111.32, "start": 1111.12, "text": "they"}, {"end": 1111.68, "start": 1111.32, "text": "received."}, {"end": 1112.04, "start": 1111.68, "text": "Actually,"}, {"end": 1112.36, "start": 1112.04, "text": "in"}, {"end": 1112.68, "start": 1112.36, "text": "our"}, {"end": 1113.04, "start": 1112.68, "text": "experiments,"}, {"end": 1113.32, "start": 1113.04, "text": "that's"}, {"end": 1113.44, "start": 1113.32, "text": "not"}, {"end": 1114.0, "start": 1113.44, "text": "how"}, {"end": 1114.24, "start": 1114.0, "text": "it"}, {"end": 1114.56, "start": 1114.24, "text": "happened."}, {"end": 1114.68, "start": 1114.56, "text": "We"}, {"end": 1114.72, "start": 1114.68, "text": "sort"}, {"end": 1114.84, "start": 1114.72, "text": "of"}, {"end": 1114.84, "start": 1114.84, "text": "had"}, {"end": 1114.84, "start": 1114.84, "text": "people"}, {"end": 1114.92, 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"central"}, {"end": 1137.84, "start": 1137.36, "text": "planning"}, {"end": 1138.4, "start": 1137.84, "text": "type"}, {"end": 1138.84, "start": 1138.4, "text": "approach."}, {"end": 1139.08, "start": 1138.84, "text": "Maybe"}, {"end": 1139.36, "start": 1139.08, "text": "we"}, {"end": 1139.96, "start": 1139.36, "text": "can"}], "text": " what delegations they received. Actually, in our experiments, that's not how it happened. We sort of had people vote and they were just filling out their one little form. They don't know what other people are doing. But I think in real world situations that does happen. So you are aware pretty frequently how many people did delegate to you. But they also know which of their friends have some expertise. Oh, no. So that's just assumed to be, you delegate however you want. There are other mechanisms that sort of take a more central planning type approach. 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We were really hoping to keep this very local. It's your own decision. We're not going to make you do anything. And the hope is that we implicitly get people moving the right direction, but they can delegate to whoever they want to. And whatever they think expertise means to them, it's their choice. Thanks. OK. Let's thank the speaker again."}]}}