File size: 2,950 Bytes
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"description": "Leave-one-function-out (LOFO) robustness for the primary endpoint \u03c3\u00b2_profile, using intermediary probing on 4 function types \u00d7 5 seeds. For each held-out function, \u03c3\u00b2_profile is averaged across the remaining 3 functions \u00d7 5 seeds. Per-layer R\u00b2 values are clipped to [-0.1, 1.0] before computing variance to prevent outlier complexities from dominating.",
"artifact_source": "results/phase8a/nonlinear_probing/results_seed*.json",
"function_types": [
"bilinear",
"sinusoidal",
"quadratic",
"mixed"
],
"n_seeds": 5,
"rows": [
{
"held_out": "bilinear",
"remaining_functions": [
"sinusoidal",
"quadratic",
"mixed"
],
"tabpfn_sigma2_mean": 0.08314763579452086,
"tabpfn_sigma2_std": 0.02155902804656014,
"tabicl_sigma2_mean": 0.00213302549189897,
"tabicl_sigma2_std": 0.0024609131437760183,
"ratio_tabpfn_over_tabicl": 38.98107927463022,
"n_data_points": 15
},
{
"held_out": "sinusoidal",
"remaining_functions": [
"bilinear",
"quadratic",
"mixed"
],
"tabpfn_sigma2_mean": 0.07434218875621415,
"tabpfn_sigma2_std": 0.01950561911530766,
"tabicl_sigma2_mean": 0.0016964405912595088,
"tabicl_sigma2_std": 0.0024999233421059935,
"ratio_tabpfn_over_tabicl": 43.822453399926836,
"n_data_points": 10
},
{
"held_out": "quadratic",
"remaining_functions": [
"bilinear",
"sinusoidal",
"mixed"
],
"tabpfn_sigma2_mean": 0.09438366122330637,
"tabpfn_sigma2_std": 0.015920476289398737,
"tabicl_sigma2_mean": 0.0031916211901094602,
"tabicl_sigma2_std": 0.002392119999958379,
"ratio_tabpfn_over_tabicl": 29.572325661890147,
"n_data_points": 10
},
{
"held_out": "mixed",
"remaining_functions": [
"bilinear",
"sinusoidal",
"quadratic"
],
"tabpfn_sigma2_mean": 0.08071705740404204,
"tabpfn_sigma2_std": 0.02346811565276035,
"tabicl_sigma2_mean": 0.0015110146943279406,
"tabicl_sigma2_std": 0.0021209189124033836,
"ratio_tabpfn_over_tabicl": 53.41910817084599,
"n_data_points": 10
},
{
"held_out": "NONE",
"remaining_functions": [
"bilinear",
"sinusoidal",
"quadratic",
"mixed"
],
"tabpfn_sigma2_mean": 0.08314763579452086,
"tabpfn_sigma2_std": 0.02155902804656014,
"tabicl_sigma2_mean": 0.00213302549189897,
"tabicl_sigma2_std": 0.0024609131437760183,
"ratio_tabpfn_over_tabicl": 38.98107927463022,
"n_data_points": 15
}
],
"conclusion": "The \u03c3\u00b2_profile(TabPFN) >> \u03c3\u00b2_profile(TabICL) ordering is preserved in every LOFO scenario with ratio >30x, confirming the primary-endpoint comparison is not driven by any single function type."
} |