export_dataset.py

"""export_dataset.py - generates the portable, DERIVED/synthetic sample dataset.

This script does NOT read any live database, and it does NOT copy or
transform raw rows from football-data.co.uk or any other third-party
match-data provider. It generates a synthetic-but-realistic set of
engineered match features and 1X2 outcome
labels, distributed to match the empirical priors used in production
(class balance ~46% home win / 27% draw / 27% away win, which mirrors
publicly documented long-run baselines for the 5 European top-flight
leagues the production pipeline covers).

Why synthetic and not a real-data aggregate:
  - football-data.co.uk's commercial-use / redistribution terms for this
    project were flagged as unverified in the ingestion code itself
    (ml-service/app/ingestion/datasets/football_results_2018_2026.py,
    LICENSE = "Verificare commercial use con football-data.co.uk").
  - The other live-odds third-party source integrated elsewhere in the
    monorepo pipeline is explicitly non-redistributable in any form (its
    ingestion config flags it `is_public_redistribution_allowed=False`)
    and no row from it is ever touched by this export script.
  - Production Postgres (sport_intelligence.fixture) is never read from a
    public repo context.
  - Generating a synthetic sample sidesteps the licensing question
    entirely: no third-party row, raw or aggregated, is shipped. Only the
    feature SCHEMA (column names/semantics) is derived from the real
    pipeline (app/sport_intelligence/features/db_extractor.py
    FEATURE_NAMES_V2), which is this project's own original engineering
    work, not third-party data.

The 25 features generated here match FEATURE_NAMES_V2 from
app/sport_intelligence/features/db_extractor.py:
  dc_p_home, dc_p_draw, dc_p_away, elo_p_home, elo_p_draw, elo_p_away,
  imp_home, imp_draw, imp_away, home_form5_pts, away_form5_pts,
  home_form5_goals_for, away_form5_goals_for, home_form5_goals_against,
  away_form5_goals_against, home_form5_avg_xg, away_form5_avg_xg,
  home_form5_avg_xga, away_form5_avg_xga, home_days_rest, away_days_rest,
  h2h_home_win_rate_5, h2h_avg_total_goals_5, home_lineup_rating,
  away_lineup_rating

Usage:
    python export_dataset.py --rows 4000 --seed 42 --output data/derived_sample.csv
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import csv
import random
from pathlib import Path

FEATURE_NAMES_V2 = [
    "dc_p_home", "dc_p_draw", "dc_p_away",
    "elo_p_home", "elo_p_draw", "elo_p_away",
    "imp_home", "imp_draw", "imp_away",
    "home_form5_pts", "away_form5_pts",
    "home_form5_goals_for", "away_form5_goals_for",
    "home_form5_goals_against", "away_form5_goals_against",
    "home_form5_avg_xg", "away_form5_avg_xg",
    "home_form5_avg_xga", "away_form5_avg_xga",
    "home_days_rest", "away_days_rest",
    "h2h_home_win_rate_5", "h2h_avg_total_goals_5",
    "home_lineup_rating", "away_lineup_rating",
]

# Empirical long-run class prior for the 5 covered leagues (documented in
# DATA_PROVENANCE.md). NOT derived from a specific third-party file - used
# only to shape the synthetic label distribution realistically.
_HOME_WIN_PRIOR = 0.46
_DRAW_PRIOR = 0.27
# away win = remainder


def _sample_team_strength(rng: random.Random) -> float:
    """Latent team strength on an Elo-like scale (mean 1500, sd 120)."""
    return rng.gauss(1500.0, 120.0)


def _softmax3(a: float, b: float, c: float) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
    import math

    m = max(a, b, c)
    ea, eb, ec = math.exp(a - m), math.exp(b - m), math.exp(c - m)
    s = ea + eb + ec
    return ea / s, eb / s, ec / s


def generate_row(rng: random.Random) -> dict[str, float | int | str]:
    """Generate one synthetic match row: 25 features + outcome label."""
    home_strength = _sample_team_strength(rng)
    away_strength = _sample_team_strength(rng)
    home_advantage = 65.0

    diff = (home_strength + home_advantage) - away_strength

    # Dixon-Coles-like probability triple derived from the latent diff,
    # softened toward the empirical draw prior (mirrors the production
    # dixon_coles.py + training.py EloTable.win_probability soft-draw
    # carving logic, re-implemented independently here for synthetic data).
    p_draw = max(0.08, _DRAW_PRIOR - 0.0003 * abs(diff))
    remaining = 1.0 - p_draw
    p_home_raw = 1.0 / (1.0 + 10 ** (-diff / 400))
    p_home = p_home_raw * remaining
    p_away = remaining - p_home

    # Elo-flavoured triple: same latent diff, independent noise draw so it
    # is correlated with but not identical to the Dixon-Coles triple
    # (mirrors two independently-fit sub-models feeding one meta-learner).
    elo_noise = rng.gauss(0.0, 15.0)
    elo_diff = diff + elo_noise
    elo_p_draw = max(0.08, _DRAW_PRIOR - 0.0003 * abs(elo_diff))
    elo_remaining = 1.0 - elo_p_draw
    elo_p_home_raw = 1.0 / (1.0 + 10 ** (-elo_diff / 400))
    elo_p_home = elo_p_home_raw * elo_remaining
    elo_p_away = elo_remaining - elo_p_home

    # Market-implied triple: a devigged noisy blend of the two above,
    # standing in for bookmaker consensus.
    imp_home, imp_draw, imp_away = _softmax3(
        (p_home + elo_p_home) / 2 + rng.gauss(0.0, 0.03),
        (p_draw + elo_p_draw) / 2 + rng.gauss(0.0, 0.03),
        (p_away + elo_p_away) / 2 + rng.gauss(0.0, 0.03),
    )

    # Rolling-form features, loosely correlated with latent strength.
    home_form5_pts = max(0.0, min(15.0, 1.5 * 5 + (home_strength - 1500) / 60 + rng.gauss(0, 2.0)))
    away_form5_pts = max(0.0, min(15.0, 1.5 * 5 + (away_strength - 1500) / 60 + rng.gauss(0, 2.0)))
    home_form5_goals_for = max(0.0, 6.0 + (home_strength - 1500) / 100 + rng.gauss(0, 1.5))
    away_form5_goals_for = max(0.0, 6.0 + (away_strength - 1500) / 100 + rng.gauss(0, 1.5))
    home_form5_goals_against = max(0.0, 6.0 - (home_strength - 1500) / 100 + rng.gauss(0, 1.5))
    away_form5_goals_against = max(0.0, 6.0 - (away_strength - 1500) / 100 + rng.gauss(0, 1.5))
    home_form5_avg_xg = max(0.0, 1.3 + (home_strength - 1500) / 300 + rng.gauss(0, 0.25))
    away_form5_avg_xg = max(0.0, 1.3 + (away_strength - 1500) / 300 + rng.gauss(0, 0.25))
    home_form5_avg_xga = max(0.0, 1.3 - (home_strength - 1500) / 300 + rng.gauss(0, 0.25))
    away_form5_avg_xga = max(0.0, 1.3 - (away_strength - 1500) / 300 + rng.gauss(0, 0.25))

    home_days_rest = max(2.0, rng.gauss(7.0, 2.0))
    away_days_rest = max(2.0, rng.gauss(7.0, 2.0))

    h2h_home_win_rate_5 = min(1.0, max(0.0, 0.5 + (diff / 800) + rng.gauss(0, 0.1)))
    h2h_avg_total_goals_5 = max(0.0, 2.5 + rng.gauss(0, 0.6))

    home_lineup_rating = home_strength / 1500.0 - 1.0 + rng.gauss(0, 0.05)
    away_lineup_rating = away_strength / 1500.0 - 1.0 + rng.gauss(0, 0.05)

    # Draw outcome from the Dixon-Coles-like triple (ground truth label).
    u = rng.random()
    if u < p_home:
        outcome = 0  # home
    elif u < p_home + p_draw:
        outcome = 1  # draw
    else:
        outcome = 2  # away

    return {
        "dc_p_home": p_home, "dc_p_draw": p_draw, "dc_p_away": p_away,
        "elo_p_home": elo_p_home, "elo_p_draw": elo_p_draw, "elo_p_away": elo_p_away,
        "imp_home": imp_home, "imp_draw": imp_draw, "imp_away": imp_away,
        "home_form5_pts": home_form5_pts, "away_form5_pts": away_form5_pts,
        "home_form5_goals_for": home_form5_goals_for, "away_form5_goals_for": away_form5_goals_for,
        "home_form5_goals_against": home_form5_goals_against, "away_form5_goals_against": away_form5_goals_against,
        "home_form5_avg_xg": home_form5_avg_xg, "away_form5_avg_xg": away_form5_avg_xg,
        "home_form5_avg_xga": home_form5_avg_xga, "away_form5_avg_xga": away_form5_avg_xga,
        "home_days_rest": home_days_rest, "away_days_rest": away_days_rest,
        "h2h_home_win_rate_5": h2h_home_win_rate_5, "h2h_avg_total_goals_5": h2h_avg_total_goals_5,
        "home_lineup_rating": home_lineup_rating, "away_lineup_rating": away_lineup_rating,
        "outcome": outcome,
    }


def export_dataset(rows: int, seed: int, output: Path) -> None:
    rng = random.Random(seed)
    output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    fieldnames = FEATURE_NAMES_V2 + ["outcome"]
    with output.open("w", newline="", encoding="utf-8") as f:
        writer = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=fieldnames)
        writer.writeheader()
        for _ in range(rows):
            writer.writerow(generate_row(rng))
    print(f"Wrote {rows} synthetic rows to {output}")


def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
    parser.add_argument("--rows", type=int, default=4000)
    parser.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=42)
    parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, default=Path("data/derived_sample.csv"))
    return parser.parse_args()


def main() -> None:
    args = _parse_args()
    export_dataset(args.rows, args.seed, args.output)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()