| title,url,author,published_time,full_text | |
| "USD/CAD retreats further from two-month tops, slides to 1.2400 neighbourhood",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-cad-retreats-further-from-two-month-tops-slides-to-1-2400-neighbourhood/,FX Street,2021-06-21T12:52:37+00:00,"The USD/CAD pair edged lower through the mid-European session and dropped to fresh daily lows, closer to the 1.2400 round-figure mark in the last hour. The pair struggled to capitalize on last week’s strong bullish momentum and witnessed a modest pullback from near two-month tops, around the 1.2485 region touched earlier this Monday. This marked the first day of a negative move in the previous five and forced the USD/CAD pair to erased a part of its gains recorded on Friday. As investors digested a sudden hawkish turn by the Fed, the US dollar witnessed some profit-taking and moved away from two-and-half-month tops. A sharp turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a solid bounce in the equity markets – weighed on the safe-haven USD and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and further contributed to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. Oil prices remained supported by expectations for a strong pickup in fuel demand and a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Despite the negative factor, the downside is likely to remain cushioned, at least for the time being, warranting some caution for bearish traders. The Fed’s signal that it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than anticipated previously should continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback and extended some support to the USD/CAD pair. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the US or Canada. Hence, the broader market risk sentiment will play a key role in influencing the USD. Apart from this, oil price dynamics will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair." | |
| ECB& | |
| US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index improves to 0.29 in May from -0.09,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-improves-to-0-29-in-may-from-0-09/,FX Street,2021-06-21T12:41:36+00:00,"The data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed on Monday that the National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved to 0.29 in May from -0.09 (revised from 0.24) in April. “The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.22 in April from +0.32 in March,” the publication further read. “Twenty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 60 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.” This report was largely ignored by market participants and the US Dollar Index was last seen losing 0.25% on the day at 91.20." | |
| Thailand: BoT seen on hold this week & | |
| UK PM Johnson& | |
| S&P 500 Index: Break of support at 4170/68 to clear the way for a test of the 4142 mark – Credit Suisse,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/sp-500-index-break-of-support-at-4170-68-to-clear-the-way-for-a-test-of-the-4142-mark-credit-suisse/,FX Street,2021-06-21T11:56:41+00:00,"The S&P 500 Index has broken support from its uptrend from last October and price support at 4170/68, clearing the way for a test of the 63-day average at 4142, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports. “S&P 500 is coming under increasing pressure following the failure to clear our next flagged resistance at 4260 and not only have we seen a sharp downturn in momentum and OnBalanceVolume but also now a move below the uptrend from last October and also key price support from the early June low at 4170/68. This sees a top complete to clear the way for a deeper setback to test the 63-day average, currently seen at 4142. Our bias would then be to look for signs of stabilization here.” “A clear and closing break below 4142 would warn of a more concerted and lengthier corrective phase, with support seen next at the mid-May price gap at 4122/16 and probably eventually back to the May lows at 4062/57.” “Resistance is seen at 4189 initially, then the price gap from Friday morning at 4205/22, with the immediate risk seen lower whilst below here.”" | |
| "GBP/USD steadily climbs back closer to 1.3900 mark, fresh session tops",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-usd-steadily-climbs-back-closer-to-1-3900-mark-fresh-session-tops/,FX Street,2021-06-21T11:56:38+00:00,"The GBP/USD pair built on its steady intraday ascent and climbed to the 1.3900 neighbourhood, or fresh daily tops during the mid-European session. The pair staged a solid rebound of over 100 pips from the 1.3785 region and for now, seems to have stalled the post-FOMC downfall to the lowest level since mid-April. The strong positive move on the first day of a new trading week assisted the GBP/USD pair to snap six consecutive days of the losing streak and erase a major part of its losses recorded on Friday. As investors digested a sudden hawkish turn by the Fed, a sharp turnaround in the global risk sentiment prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven US dollar. This, in turn, provided a goodish lift to the GBP/USD pair. That said, a combination of factor might hold traders from placing aggressive bets and keep a lid on any strong gains for the major. The Fed’s signal that it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than anticipated previously should continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback. Apart from this, concerns about the EU-UK collision over Norther Ireland protocol and the UK government’s decision to delay the final stage of easing lockdown might also cap gains for the GBP/USD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out in the near term. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics might continue to play a key role in influencing the GBP/USD pair and produce some short-term trading opportunities." | |
| ECB& | |
| WH Press Sec. Psaki: Biden to discuss infrastructure deal with lawmakers,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/wh-press-sec-psaki-biden-to-discuss-infrastructure-deal-with-lawmakers/,FX Street,2021-06-21T11:21:40+00:00,"White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told CBS on Monday that US President Joe Biden will talk to lawmakers and welcome some of them to the White House over the next couple of days to discuss the infrastructure deal, as reported by Reuters. “It is a positive sign that democrats, republicans continue to negotiate,” Psaki added. “President Biden is eager to continue infrastructure talks and see if we can make big progress this week.” The market mood remains upbeat ahead of Wall Street’s opening bell and the S&P Futures were last seen gaining 0.45% at 4,172." | |
| UK PM Johnson: This will be a difficult year for travel,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/uk-pm-johnson-this-will-be-a-difficult-year-for-travel/,FX Street,2021-06-21T11:01:38+00:00,"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson noted on Monday that the cases of coronavirus’ delta variant is still going up and added that they need to be cautious with regards to easing restrictions. However, Johnson also noted that the data is looking good for lifting the curbs on July 19. “This will be a difficult year for travel,” Johnson said. “The emphasis will be on protecting the country from the virus getting in.” These comments don’t seem to be having a major impact on market sentiment. As of writing, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index was up 0.15% on the day at 7,027." | |
| EUR/USD Price Analysis: A re-test to the 200-day SMA looks likely,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-usd-price-analysis-a-re-test-to-the-200-day-sma-looks-likely/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:51:44+00:00,"EUR/USD manages to regain some composure following earlier lows in the 1.1850/45 band at the beginning of the week. If the recovery gathers extra steam, then the door could open to a potential re-visit of the 200-day SMA at 1.1992. There is, however, a minor hurdle at a Fibo level at 1.1976. The outlook for EUR/USD should shift to negative on a sustainable breakdown of the key 200-day SMA. Next weeks are expected to be crucial regarding this issue." | |
| S&P 500 (ES SPY) Technical Forecast: Fed fright causes index implosion,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/sp-500-es-spy-technical-forecast-fed-fright-causes-index-implosion/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:51:41+00:00,"The Fed did what it could not avoid and brought forward its projected interest rate hiking cycle and in the process gave markets the excuse they needed to sell off. Equity markets had been expecting and dare we say hoping the Fed would act on inflation before it was too late and this is what the Fed had to do. Equity markets took it relatively calmly on Thursday but the mood soured on Friday as the Fed’s James Bullard talked tough. The market took Bullards testimony badly despite the fact that he is a well-known Fed hawk. The lead futures contract has retreated to a strong support line at 4155. This is matched in the cash and ETF SPY charts as they track almost exactly. So Monday’s session is increasingly important. Is buy the dip still the strategy to be following? Seasonality has been mentioned a lot recently and it cannot be totally discounted. The last two weeks of June are historically tough ones for the equity market so we are not only at a critical price juncture but a critical time juncture also. Fridays’ move saw the S&P break the 9-and 21-day moving averages skewing the risk-reward to the downside. The momentum oscillators have trended lower with price in confirmation and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD has crossed into a bearish signal. The big level is 4050 as volume drops off alarmingly below this as we can see from the volume profile bars on the right of the chart. Any vacuum of volume could and should lead to a price acceleration toward 3950-3900 area. Overall buy the dip has been working so 4050 is a good entry point if reached, with a tight stop as a break could get ugly. The more bullish could look to the trendline to hold and enter long positions currently but we need the oscillators and short-term averages to be retaken pretty quickly to confirm this strategy." | |
| USD/RUB to move back higher towards the 74.30/72.13 region & | |
| USD/TRY hits new record highs leaving the 9.00 level in its crosshairs & | |
| NZD/USD rebounds above 0.6960 amid broad USD weakness,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/nzd-usd-rebounds-above-0-6960-amid-broad-usd-weakness/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:46:37+00:00,"The NZD/USD pair lost nearly 200 pips last week and closed the third straight week in the negative territory. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers on Monday, the pair seems to be staging a correction and was last seen gaining 0.45% on the day at 0.6965. The unabated USD strength following the hawkish tilt in the FOMC’s monetary policy outlook weighed heavily on NZD/USD in the second half of the previous week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose 2% and registered its largest weekly percentage gain since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak. There won’t be any high-tier macroeconomic data releases from the US in the remainder of the day and the pair seems poised to extend its rebound. Meanwhile, S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures both gain around 0.5% ahead of Wall Street’s opening bell, suggesting that the risk-positive market environment could make it difficult for the USD to regather its strength during the American session. On Tuesday, the Westpac Consumer Survey for the second quarter from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus during the Asian trading hours." | |
| US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the upside is located 92.50,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-dollar-index-price-analysis-next-on-the-upside-is-located-92-50/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:41:42+00:00,"The strong upside in DXY shows some signs of exhaustion after being rejected once again from the 92.40/50 band earlier on Monday. The improved sentiment in the dollar could now push the index to the next minor target at a Fibo level near 92.50. Further north, there are no relevant hurdles until the 2021 highs in the mid-93.00s recorded on March 31. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, a sustainable breakout of the 200-day SMA, today at 91.51, should shift the outlook for the buck to positive." | |
| EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Solid support appears around 130.00,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-jpy-price-analysis-solid-support-appears-around-130-00/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:41:39+00:00,"Following a drop to new 2-month lows in the 130.00 neighbourhood, EUR/JPY manages to regain some upside traction and looks to retake the 131.00 mark. Further recovery is likely on the back of the oversold condition of the cross. That said, there is not much in terms of resistance levels until the 50-day SMA just above 132.00 the figure. This area coincides with the short-term resistance line. Above this region, the selling pressure is seen losing some traction. In the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 127.61 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive." | |
| "AUD/USD clings to recovery gains above 0.7500 mark, upside seems limited",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-usd-clings-to-recovery-gains-above-0-7500-mark-upside-seems-limited/,FX Street,2021-06-21T10:16:38+00:00,"The AUD/USD pair held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading daily tops, around the 0.7510-15 region. The pair gained some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and has now recovered a part of the previous session’s heavy losses to the lowest level since December 2020. The uptick allowed the AUD/USD pair to snap four consecutive days of the losing streak and was sponsored by a modest US dollar pullback. As investors digested a sudden hawkish turn by the Fed, a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields prompted some profit-taking around the USD. Apart from this, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment further undermined the greenback’s relative safe-haven status and extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. Despite the supporting factors, any meaningful recovery seems elusive in the wake of the Fed’s signal that it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than anticipated previously. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week stunned investors and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck and cap gains for the AUD/USD pair. The negative outlook is reinforced by Friday’s decisive break below the very important 200-day SMA for the first time since June 2020. Hence, any subsequent positive move might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US, leaving the AUD/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute to provide some short-term trading impetus on the first day of a new week." | |
| "Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rebounds from two-month lows, lacks follow-through",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/silver-price-analysis-xag-usd-rebounds-from-two-month-lows-lacks-follow-through/,FX Street,2021-06-21T09:46:41+00:00,"Silver price (XAG/USD) has quickly pulled back from fresh two-month lows of $25.55, now extending the break above the $26 mark. The bulls appear to extend the recovery momentum, backed by the renewed uptick in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart. The leading indicator has recovered from the oversold territory to currently trade at 35.35, offering some respite to the silver bulls. The next relevant target for the buyers is seen at $26.50, the June 18 highs, which coincided with the downward-sloping 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) on said time frame. However, if the downside bias resumes, a retest of the two-month lows will be well on the cards. Further south, the $25 round figure will be on the sellers’ radars." | |
| NZD/USD: Scope for a move to 0.6875/61 on a clear break below 0.6945 & | |
| EUR/USD stays bid and approaches 1.1900 ahead of Lagarde,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-usd-stays-bid-and-approaches-1-1900-ahead-of-lagarde/,FX Street,2021-06-21T09:41:40+00:00,"The single currency leaves behind part of the recent weakness and pushes EUR/USD back to the proximity of the 1.1900 hurdle on Monday. Finally, EUR/USD shows some signs of life after bottoming out in the 1.1850 region earlier in the session. The FOMC-led deep pullback from levels around 1.2130 on Wednesday appears to have met some decent support in the mid-1.1800s for the time being, as investors seem to be cashing out part of the recent strong gains in the dollar. The move up in the pair comes in tandem with a positive tone in yields of the German 10-year benchmark, which manage to return to the -0.20% neighbourhood after briefly flirting with multi-week lows near -0.30 earlier in the month. A more evident driver of the recent drop in EUR/USD, however, comes from the yield spread in the shorter end of the curve between the US and German notes. No data releases scheduled in the euro area on Monday, although investors are expected to closely follow the speech by Chairwoman Lagarde before the European Parliament later in the session. EUR/USD collapsed to levels last seen in early April well below 1.1900 the figure on Friday, always in response to the strong improvement in the sentiment surrounding the greenback exclusively following the latest FOMC event. In the meantime, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Key events in the euro area this week : ECB Lagarde (Monday) – Advanced EMU Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – EMU, Germany June flash PMIs – (Wednesday) – German IFO survey (Thursday) – German GfK Consumer Confidence, European Council meeting (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler : Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. So far, spot is gaining 0.27% at 1.1894 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1992 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.2032 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.2064 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally). On the downside, a break below 1.1847 (monthly low Jun.18) would target 1.1835 (low Mar.9) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31)." | |
| EUR/USD: Is upbeat outlook well priced? Positive factors remain valid & | |
| EUR/JPY to suffer further weakness towards the 129.59/36 zone & | |
| EUR/USD: Economic and political factors to set a ceiling to the euro & | |
| Gold Price Forecast: Bearish pressure may ebb this week & | |
| "Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU’s covid progress – FT",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/delta-variant-begins-to-spread-threatening-eus-covid-progress-ft/,FX Street,2021-06-21T09:11:41+00:00,"The Delta coronavirus variant, which first emerged in India, appeared in clusters across Germany, France and Spain and raised concerns amongst the European health officials, according to the Financial Times (FT). “While the new strain, which first emerged in India, still only accounts for a fraction of the total coronavirus cases in mainland Europe, it is gaining ground, according to a Financial Times analysis of global genomic data from the virus tracking database Gisaid.” “It accounts for 96 per cent of sequenced COVID-19 infections in Portugal, more than 20 per cent in Italy and about 16 per cent in Belgium, the FT’s calculations show.” “Scientists across the continent are now looking to the UK — where COVID-19 cases have tripled in the past month and the Delta variant accounts for about 98 per cent of all new infections — for clues about what may happen next and which measures may need to be taken.” “French authorities are currently trying to contain an outbreak in the Landes region, near the Spanish border, where 125 cases of the Delta variant have been confirmed by genetic sequencing and another 130 are suspected, representing about 30 per cent of recent infections in the area.”" | |
| USD/CAD to trend higher over the next month towards the 1.2639/53 zone & | |
| Indonesia: BI kept the steady hand & | |
| "BOJ buys JPY70.1 billion in ETFs, first purchase since April",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/boj-buys-jpy70-1-billion-in-etfs-first-purchase-since-april/,FX Street,2021-06-21T08:51:38+00:00,"BOJ buys JPY70.1 billion in ETFs, first purchase since April developing story …." | |
| Gold Price Forecast: Recapturing $1797 is critical for XAU/USD bulls & | |
| "GBP/JPY recovers early lost ground to multi-week lows, back above 152.00 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-jpy-recovers-early-lost-ground-to-multi-week-lows-back-above-152-00-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-21T08:46:37+00:00,"The GBP/JPY cross managed to rebound around 90 pips from multi-week lows and edged back closer to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. The cross was last seen trading with modest intraday gains, comfortably above the 152.00 round-figure mark. The cross extended its recent sharp pullback from multi-year tops and witnessed some follow-through selling through the first half of the trading action on Monday. However, a combination of factors helped limit the downside, rather assisted the GBP/JPY cross to attract some buying near the 151.30 region. A dramatic turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a strong intraday bounce in the US equity futures – undermined the Japanese yen’s safe-haven status. On the other hand, the British pound benefitted from a modest USD pullback, which was seen as another factor that extended some support to the GBP/JPY cross. That said, concerns about the EU-UK collision over Northern Ireland protocol. This, along with worries that the government’s decision to delay the final stage of easing lockdown measures could hinder the nascent economic recovery, might act as a headwind for the sterling. This, in turn, might cap gains for the GBP/JPY cross. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the UK on Monday. Hence, it remains to be seen if the GBP/JPY cross is able to capitalize on the move or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels. Investors now look forward to the upcoming Bank of England meeting on Thursday for a fresh impetus." | |
| "USD/CHF consolidates near two-month tops, holds above 0.9200 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-chf-consolidates-near-two-month-tops-holds-above-0-9200-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-21T08:11:38+00:00,"The USD/CHF pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and oscillated in a range through the early European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 0.9210-15 region, just below two-month tops. A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the USD/CHF pair to capitalize on last week’s hawkish FOMC-inspired strong move up, instead led to range-bound price action on Monday. The prevalent risk-off mood – as depicted by a weaker trading sentiment around the global equity markets – underpinned the safe-haven Swiss franc. On the other hand, the ongoing sharp decline in the US Treasury bond yields kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive and further collaborated towards capping the gains for the USD/CHF pair. That said, the Fed’s surprise hawkish shift continued acting as a tailwind for the greenback and should help limit any meaningful pullback for the pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed stunned investors at the end of June policy meeting on Wednesday and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against policymakers projection for no increase until 2024 in the March meeting. Adding to this, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at the last meeting. Speaking to CNBC, Bullard added that the shift toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to stronger economic growth and a quicker than expected rise in inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, technical indicators on short-term charts are already flashing overbought conditions. This seemed to be another factor that held traders from placing any aggressive bullish bets. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the recent sharp bounce from multi-month lows, around the 0.8925 region touched earlier this month." | |
| Brent Oil to hover around $72.50 in 2022 as OPEC normalises output & | |
| USD/CNH now focused on 6.4800 & | |
| EUR/USD: Scope for a nosedive to the 1.1704 mark & | |
| US Dollar Index looks to extend the rally above 92.00,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-dollar-index-looks-to-extend-the-rally-above-92-00/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:51:38+00:00,"The greenback starts the week in an inconclusive foot and prompts the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gyrate around the area of recent tops near 92.30. The index looks to add to the recent strong advance, although it seems to have met quite a solid resistance in the vicinity of 92.50 for the time being. It is worth recalling that the sentiment for the dollar improved dramatically after the FOMC event last Wednesday opened the door to “talk about talk about tapering” earlier than anticipated by most investors, while the “dots plot” now signals two interest rate hikes at some point in late 2023. Adding to the above, further improvement in key fundamentals and higher inflation could even bring forward a rate hike by end of 2022. Recent strength in the buck also came in response to comments from (ex dovish?) St. Louis Fed J,Bullard at a CNBC interview on Friday, when he defended the recent hawkish twist in the Fed’s message. Later in the US data space, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is only due along with the speech by NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist). The index moved beyond the 92.00 level as investors continue to adjust to the recent hawkish message from the FOMC at its meeting on Wednesday. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone has anticipated and the view of higher rates in 2023 (or before) fuel the sharp bounce in the buck to levels last seen in mid-April. However, the still unchanged view on “transient” higher inflation and hence the continuation of the dovish stance by the Federal Reserve carries the potential to temper the current momentum in the dollar. A sustained break above the critical 200-day SMA should shift the dollar’s outlook to a more constructive one. Key events in the US this week : Chairman Powell’s testimony, Existing Home Sales (Tuesday) – New Home Sales, flash Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) – Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Claims (Thursday) – Core PCE, final June Consumer Sentiment (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler : Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? Now, the index is losing 0.11% at 92.21 and faces the next support at 91.51 (200-day SMA) followed by 91.10 (100-day SMA) and finally 89.53 (monthly low May 25). On the flip side, a breakout of 92.40 (monthly high Jun.18) would open the door to 92.46 (23.6% Fibo level of the 2020-2021 drop) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21)." | |
| USD/CNY: More hawkish Fed the trigger for a turn higher & | |
| EUR/CHF to surge higher towards 1.13 as the Fed turns hawkish & | |
| AUD/USD may extend its slide below six-months lows at 0.7463 & | |
| XRP price awaits 20% drop as Ripple breaks below critical level of support,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/xrp-price-awaits-20-drop-as-ripple-breaks-below-critical-level-of-support/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:26:43+00:00,"XRP price has dropped over 11% over the weekend as Ripple fell in tandem with the leading cryptocurrency. The cross-border remittance coin has attempted to recover from the fall as it bounced from its swing low to retest the resistance level given from the recent bearish pattern formation. XRP price has formed a minor head-and-shoulders pattern that started on May 23 on the daily chart. Now Ripple has broken below the bearish pattern, indicating that further losses are expected. XRP price broke below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern on June 18 for the first time, before a bearish close confirming the move to the downside the day after. Since Ripple has fallen below the critical support level, a measured target of $0.57, a 20% drop from the current level, and a 28% decline from the neckline could be expected for the crypto asset. This target is given by measuring the top of the pattern to its neckline and subtracting it from the horizontal trend line. However, Ripple would need to lose multiple areas of support before the furthermost bearish target would be met. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has acted as support for XRP as it is now testing the dependability of the indicator as it breaks below the line of defense for the second day. If sellers continue to overpower buyers, Ripple could fall into the demand zone that starts at $0.65 before reaching the head-and-shoulders target of $0.57. Now XRP appears to be trading around the 200-day SMA, and this level could play a significant role in determining the near future price moves for Ripple. XRP/USDT daily chart Should XRP bulls manage to lift prices higher, overthrowing the distribution of the sellers, Ripple would need to break and close above the first area of resistance, given by the neckline of the chart pattern at $0.78, before attempting to rally toward the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level at $0.89. Investors should also note that if a rally were to occur as Ripple recovers, XRP price sees massive resistance ahead at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level at $1.04, coinciding with the 100-day SMA." | |
| "USD/CAD climbs to near two-month tops, eyeing to reclaim 1.2500 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-cad-climbs-to-near-two-month-tops-eyeing-to-reclaim-1-2500-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:26:38+00:00,"The USD/CAD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and consolidated its recent strong gains to near two-month tops. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.2465-70 region, nearly unchanged for the day. A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the USD/CAD pair to capitalize on last week’s strong positive move, instead led to a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new week. A modest uptick in oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie. On the other hand, the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields held the US dollar bulls on the defensive and capped gains for the major. That said, the Fed’s surprise hawkish shift acted as a tailwind for the USD and helped limit any meaningful corrective slide for the USD/CAD pair. The Fed surprised investors at the end of June policy meeting on Wednesday and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against March’s projection for no increase until 2024. Adding to this, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at the last meeting. Speaking to CNBC, Bullard further added that the shift toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to stronger economic growth and a quicker than expected rise in inflationary pressures. The fundamental backdrop remains tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains. Hence, a subsequent strength beyond the key 1.2500 psychological mark, towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the 1.2535 horizontal zone, now looks a distinct possibility. In the absence of any major market-moving economic release, the USD/oil price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/CAD pair." | |
| "EUR/SEK to move higher medium-term, 10.40 mark is in its sights – Danske Bank",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-sek-to-move-higher-medium-term-10-40-mark-is-in-its-sights-danske-bank/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:21:37+00:00,"For the Swedish krona, focus remains on the business cycle, risk sentiment and a Fed, where economists at Danske Bank believe that a gradually stronger USD will help pushing EUR/SEK higher over the medium-term. “Focus remains on the global business cycle, risk sentiment and a less accommodative FED, where our baseline is that a gradually stronger USD will help pushing EUR/SEK higher over the medium-term.” “Furthermore, the steep drop in Swedish inflation will keep any monetary policy tightening at bay – and Board members alert to any premature appreciation of the krona. While there are always risks associated with Riksbank announcements, our best guess is that the upcoming one will not be a major market mover.” “We raise our 1M forecast to 10.20 (10.10) and keep 3, 6 and 12M intact at 10.20, 10.30 and 12M 10.40.” “If the RB pencils in a hike at the end of the horizon (not our baseline), it would weigh on EUR/SEK. Conversely, if even a small probability for a cut is pencilled in (unlikely), it would send EUR/SEK substantially higher.”" | |
| GBP/USD to plummet towards March and April lows at 1.3670/69 & | |
| "Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to alleviate downside pressure on a daily close above $1,800",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-to-alleviate-downside-pressure-on-a-daily-close-above-1800/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:11:37+00:00,"Gold lost more than 5% on a weekly basis for the first time in a year and closed a little above $1,770. The next target on the downside is located at $1,756, as FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer notes. “On Wednesday, the IHS Markit will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for June. Investors will keep a close eye on the underlying details with regards to input price pressures. In case these reports reaffirm the view that inflation will continue to rise, the USD could gather additional strength and weigh on XAU/USD.” “On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its policy decision. A hawkish outlook could trigger a sharp increase in the GBP/USD pair and help XAU/USD turn north.” “The BEA will publish the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index is forecast to edge lower to 2.9% in May from 3.1% in April. A stronger-than-expected PCE inflation is likely to allow the greenback to continue to outperform its rivals and vice versa.” “Unless gold makes daily close above $1,800 (100-day SMA, psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of April-June uptrend), the bearish pressure is likely to remain intact in the near term. Above that level, the next critical resistance is located at $1,825 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) ahead of $1,835 (200-day SMA).” “Strong support seems to have formed at $1,770 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) before $1,756 (April 29 low, static level) and $1,745 (static level).”" | |
| "EUR/NOK to hit 10.40 as krone weakens, shrugging off Norges Bank rate hikes – Danske Bank",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-nok-to-hit-10-40-as-krone-weakens-shrugging-off-norges-bank-rate-hikes-danske-bank/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:06:39+00:00,"In Norway, economists at Danske Bank now expect 5 hikes by the end of 2022. Notwithstanding, they stick to the view that EUR/NOK is set to move towards higher as relative rates matter less than the direction of the dollar and global reflation. “While higher NOK rates in isolation are supportive of a stronger NOK we still highlight that relative short-end rates are an inferior driver of NOK relative to the global reflation theme.” “The biggest risk factors to our forecasts lie in the global reflation theme and thereby not least USD real rates, risk appetite, oil and vaccine rollouts. Better news and/or a more patient Fed than in our baseline would support reflation underpinning a continued strengthening of NOK. On the other hand, marked risk-off could trigger a larger-than-projected setback” “As we now expect 5 hikes by end 2022 we lower our EUR/NOK forecast profile slightly but stick to the view that cross is set to move higher over the coming year on peak reflation. We forecast the cross at 10.20 in 1M (previously 10.10), 10.30 in 3M (unchanged), 10.40 in 6M (unchanged) and 10.40 in 12M (10.50).”" | |
| USD/CHF targets the 0.9300 area and above & | |
| "GBP/USD Price Analysis: Holding onto critical support near 1.3800, risks remain to the downside",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-usd-price-analysis-holding-onto-critical-support-near-1-3800-risks-remain-to-the-downside/,FX Street,2021-06-21T07:01:37+00:00,"GBP/USD is looking to find its feet above the 1.3800 barrier after hitting two-month lows at 1.3786 earlier in the Asian session. The falling Treasury yields come to the rescue of the cable bulls amid retreating reflation bets, as the Fed signals rate lift-offs sooner than expected. However, the bounce appears limited amid concerns over the delay in the UK reopening and Brexit issue. Additionally, broad-based US dollar strength also remains a weight on the spot. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot seems to have found some support at the critical horizontal (dashed) trendline at 1.3796. Therefore, the bulls are attempting a minor bounce. Immediate resistance awaits at the psychological 1.3850 level, as GBP/USD yearn to recapture the horizontal 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.3939. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) diving out of the oversold territory, currently at 31.73, the bears are likely to receive a fresh boost to take on the downside once again. A sustained break below the abovementioned key support will open floors towards the next significant support located at 1.3680, the horizontal (orange) trendline." | |
| EUR/USD to slip towards the March low at 1.1704 & | |
| USD/JPY now seen between 109.60 and 110.80 & | |
| Natural Gas Futures: Probable consolidation near term,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/natural-gas-futures-probable-consolidation-near-term/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:51:40+00:00,"In light of advanced prints for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the third straight session on Friday, this time by around 3.5K contracts. In the same direction, volume went down by around 94.8K contracts, offsetting the previous build. Natural gas prices charted an inconclusive session on Friday amidst shrinking open interest and volume, leaving the door open to some consolidation in the short-term horizon. Further downside, in the meantime, is expected to meet support around the $3.15 mark per MMBtu." | |
| "USD/JPY bounces off one-week lows, still in the red below 110.00 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-jpy-bounces-off-one-week-lows-still-in-the-red-below-110-00-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:51:37+00:00,"The USD/JPY pair dropped to one-week lows, around the 109.70 region during the Asian session, albeit recovered few pips thereafter. The pair was last seen trading just below the key 110.00 psychological mark, down nearly 0.20% for the day. Following the previous session’s good two-way price moves, the USD/JPY pair met with some fresh supply on the first day of a new trading week and pressured by a combination of factors. This marked the second day of a negative move in the previous three and dragged the pair further away from two-and-half-month tops, touched in reaction to the Fed’s sudden hawkish shift. The prevalent risk-off mood – as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets – underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and exerted some pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Bearish traders further took cues from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dropped to the lowest level since February. On the other hand, the US dollar consolidated the post-FOMC strong gains and did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. However, the Fed’s surprise move to bring forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes continued acting as a tailwind for the USD. This, in turn, helped limit any deeper losses for the major, at least for now. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday. Hence, the US bond yields will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the USD/JPY pair." | |
| "US: 10-year yields are close to a floor, potential for a move above 2% – Credit Suisse",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-10-year-yields-are-close-to-a-floor-potential-for-a-move-above-2-credit-suisse/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:46:38+00:00,"Economists at Credit Suisse believe the downside for US 10yr Bond Yields from current levels is limited and that price action could be forming a new bearish continuation pattern, which would be confirmed above 1.635/645%. “Our expectation is still that the downside in yields is likely to be limited and our medium-term bias is still in favor of higher yields. Going forwards then, a break above the next key support at 1.635/645% would now be sufficient to confirm a new bearish continuation pattern and take the market up to 1.775/82% and eventually beyond. The completion of a bearish continuation pattern would also sharply raise the risk of a longer-term yield base.” “The now confirmed uptrend at 1.455/445% and particularly the channel bottom at 1.425% should now floor the market to avoid a deeper corrective setback. Whilst not our base case, the next levels below here are seen at 1.385%. The maximum correction we can envisage whilst still being consistent with a potential basing structure is a move to 1.295/285%, but this is still very much viewed as a low risk scenario.” “US 10yr Bond Yields are increasingly threatening a long-term 2-year basing structure, which would eventually be confirmed above 1.82%. Thereafter, we look for a move to our prior medium-term objective at 1.965/2.00% and eventually on a 6-12 month horizon, the cluster of retracement resistances at 2.16/18%.”" | |
| Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to extend its recovery on a break above $1778,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-to-extend-its-recovery-on-a-break-above-1778/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:41:38+00:00,"Gold is attempting a bounce from two-month lows amid falling yields, although a broadly firmer US dollar is likely to limit the rebound, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta briefs. “The Fed’s hawkishness has poured cold water over the reflation trades, negatively impact the global stocks and yields. The benchmark 30-year Treasury yields have fallen below the key 2% level, four-month lows, suggesting flattening of the yield curve and receding reflation bets. However, the US dollar continues to hold higher ground, which could likely limit the recovery in the gold price.” “Gold bulls could turn cautious ahead of a slew of speeches lined up from the Fed policymakers. Tuesday’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony will also be closely followed.” “Gold’s four-hour chart shows that the price is pausing its recovery momentum just below the falling trendline resistance at $1778.” The next target for the bulls will then be seen at the bearish 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1801. The further upside will then open up towards the June 17 highs of $1825.” “A retest of the monthly lows at $1761 could be on the cards if gold price faces rejection at the wedge resistance. Further south, the falling trendline support at $1755 will be the line in the sand for the bullish traders.”" | |
| WTI Price Analysis: Bulls consolidate below $71.50 mark,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/wti-price-analysis-bulls-consolidate-below-71-50-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:36:41+00:00,"West Texas Crude Oil (WTI) prints substantial gains in the European session. The prices opened lower, however, traveled to the intraday high of $71.95 and reversed back to the lower level. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $71.46, up 0.57% for the day. On the daily chart, WTI has been under selling pressure, after touching the YTD high of $72.74 on the account of profit taking. The prices found support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which extends from the lows of $61.52, at $69.94. If WTI sustains above the 0.71.50 key psychological mark, then it could see further upside toward the June 17 high in the vicinity of the $72.10 area followed by the high of June 16 formed at $72.74. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above 50, which indicates an underlying bullish tone in the prices. Next, the WTI bulls could target September 2018 high at $73.65. On the flip side, if prices break the intraday low, then it could further slide toward the above mentioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The next area of support would be located at the $69.00 horizontal support level followed by the June 10 low at $68.55." | |
| AUD/USD faces some near-term rangebound & | |
| Crude Oil Futures: Potential correction near term,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/crude-oil-futures-potential-correction-near-term/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:31:39+00:00,"CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by around 27.1K contracts. Volume followed suit and shrank by 176.5K contracts after three daily builds in a row. Friday’s uptick in crude oil futures markets was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, noting some short covering behind the move. That said, a corrective decline remains well on the cards, although the broad positive stance in crude oil looks unchanged so far. That said, WTI faces the immediate target stays at the YTD highs near the $73.00 mark per barrel." | |
| GBP/USD: Next relevant support is located at 1.3750 & | |
| FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/fx-option-expiries-for-june-21-ny-cut/,FX Street,2021-06-21T06:06:38+00:00,"FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. – EUR/USD: EUR amounts – USD/JPY: USD amounts – EUR/GBP: EUR amounts – AUD/JPY: AUD amounts" | |
| EUR/USD still risks further pullbacks & | |
| GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Poised for further losses around mid-151.00s,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-jpy-price-analysis-poised-for-further-losses-around-mid-151-00s/,FX Street,2021-06-21T05:56:43+00:00,"GBP/JPY stays pressured for the fifth consecutive day as bears attack early May’s lows, down 0.45% around 151.50, ahead of Monday’s London open. Although the oversold RSI conditions seem to test the pair bears of late, sustained break of previous support from April and most bearish MACD signals since late March keep the pair sellers hopeful. On the way down, a 100-day SMA level of 151.13 can offer immediate support to the quote ahead of an ascending support line from late February, around 150.70. During the quote’s further weakness past 150.70, the 150.00 psychological magnet and April’s bottom surrounding 149.00 could test GBP/JPY bears. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may aim for 152.30-40 region comprising multiple tops marked since March before targeting the previous horizontal support around 153.45-50. It’s worth noting that 154.85 and the 156.00 threshold become the key hurdles during the GBP/JPY upside beyond 153.50. Overall, GBP/JPY is yet to announce its bearish journey but short-term declines can’t be ruled out. Trend: Further weakness expected" | |
| "EUR/JPY eyes 130.00 mark amid risk-aversion, eyes on ECB Lagarde speech",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-jpy-eyes-130-00-mark-amid-risk-aversion-eyes-on-ecb-lagarde-speech/,FX Street,2021-06-21T05:56:39+00:00,"The EUR/JPY price continues to drift lower in the early European session. The pair opens at a higher level, albeit fizzles out rather quickly, and refreshes the multi-month on Monday. The rapid selling action in the previous week erases previous two month gains in a matter of a few days. As of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 130.26, down 0.38% for the day. Investors continue to digest the Fed hawkish outlook on inflation and interest rates. The central bank’s sudden aggressive U-turn pushes the greenback higher against the majors. The shared currency failed to capitalize the gains on the strong economic numbers, and positive comments from the ECB President Christine Lagarde on weekends which said that progress on strategy overhaul is good so far. The Euro struggled despite the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, which beat the market expectations and rose 1% YoY basis. ECB pledged to continue with its bond buying program despite the raised economic outlook. This signaled some doubts among the policymakers over the pace of economic recovery. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an extension of its pandemic-relief program and kept its monetary policy unchanged. The yen gains on its traditional safe-haven asset appeal. As for now, investors are gearing up for the ECB President Lagarde speech to gauge the market sentiment." | |
| "Forex Today: Hawkish Fed smashes reflation trades, yields; gold bounces amid risk-aversion",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/forex-today-hawkish-fed-smashes-reflation-trades-yields-gold-bounces-amid-risk-aversion/,FX Street,2021-06-21T05:51:39+00:00,"Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 21: A risk-aversion wave has gripped the markets starting out a fresh week, as the Fed’s hawkish turn prompts dialing back of reflation bets while weighing heavily on the Treasury yields and equities. The US returns on the market hit the lowest levels in four months, with the 30-year yields back below the 2% level. The US Treasury yield curve flattened after the Fed projected two interest-rate hikes by the end of 2023. The Asian stocks are a sea of red, as the Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 index sheds almost 4%. The futures tied to the S&P 500 index drops 0.50% towards 4,100. Across the G7 fx space, the yen emerges the strongest amid tumbling yields and risk-off mood, hammering USD/JPY below 110.00. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans advances, as investors believe that the Emerging Markets’ central banks are likely to outdo the Fed’s tightening pace. AUD/USD hovers around 0.7500, shrugging off downbeat Australian Preliminary Retail Sales. EUR/USD eases towards 1.1850, as the US dollar holds onto last week’s gains amid sooner-than-expected Fed rate hikes, especially after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he sees a Fed lift-off in late 2022. GBP/USD drops back below 1.3800 amid Brexit concerns and the delay in the UK reopening, in light of rising worries about the Delta COVID-19 variant. Gold is attempting a bounce from two-month lows amid falling yields, although broadly firmer US dollar is likely to limit the rebound. Bitcoin has recaptured $34,000 but remains in the hands of the sellers, as Bitcoin hashrate suffers a massive drop on China’s continued crackdown on BTC mining. The economic calendar is relatively scarce, with the focus on the Fedspeak. Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:" | |
| "Palladium Price Analysis: XPD/USD bulls battle support-turned-resistance around $2,500",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/palladium-price-analysis-xpd-usd-bulls-battle-support-turned-resistance-around-2500/,FX Street,2021-06-21T05:31:38+00:00,"Palladium (XPD/USD) consolidates recent losses below $2,500, up 0.82% intraday near $2,495 ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal keeps the bounce off March 17 lows, flashed the previous day, to battle a convergence of 200-day SMA and previous support line. Given the strongest bearish bias of the MACD in 15 months, coupled with the sustained trading below the key levels, palladium prices are likely to remain pressured toward the late November 2020 tops surrounding $2,435. It’s worth noting that there are multiple supports around $2,350 and the $,2300 threshold before dragging the quote to March’s low of $2277 during the commodity’s further weakness. Alternatively, a clear upside break of $2,500-05 resistance confluence, previous support, won’t offer a free pass to the buyers as a seven-month-old horizontal hurdle around $2,520-30 becomes a tough nut to crack for palladium buyers. Even if the precious metal prices cross the $2,530 hurdle, there are multiple hurdles around $2,575 and $2,685-90 before highlighting May’s low of $2,725 for the bulls. To sum up, Palladium bears seem to take a breather but aren’t out of the woods. Trend: Bearish" | |
| "Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats below $1,780 even as US yield curve flattens",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-retreats-below-1780-even-as-us-yield-curve-flattens/,FX Street,2021-06-21T05:11:36+00:00,"Update: Gold (XAU/USD) trims intraday gains, taking a U-turn from the day’s high near $1,777 to recently around $1,773.50, up 0.53% on a day, heading into Monday’s European session. Even so, the gold buyers cheer downbeat US Treasury yields to keep the corrective pullback from late-April lows. While increasing odds of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy adjustments seem to weigh on the US Treasury yields, the recent consolidation in the gold prices could be traced to the US dollar’s strength ahead of the key European session. It’s worth noting that today’s speech from New York Fed President John C. Williams will be the key for gold traders after St. Louis Fed President reiterated his bullish bias. Read: US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend Previous udpates… Update: Gold price has turned positive for the first time in one week, having found some support just above $1760. The ongoing decline in the US Treasury yield across the curve is saving the day for the gold bulls. Falling inflation expectations and uncertainty over the US infrastructure spending plans is weighing heavily on the returns on the markets, as investors re-think the Fed’s hawkish stance. Last week, gold dropped 6% after Fed signaled sooner-than-expected rate hikes, which killed the demand for the yieldless gold. Gold price hit the lowest in two months last Friday at $1760. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1774, up 0.55% on the day. Read: Chart of the Week: Gold bulls stepping in at critical support A stronger USD following the Federal Reserve hawkish tone kept the commodities complex down and weighed n precious metals. Gold experienced heavy selling, with the precious metal closing below $1,800/oz and ending down by 0.52% at $1,764.23 ranging between a low of $1,761.04 and $1,797.31. The US dollar extended its advance against a basket of currencies in a classic short squeeze as it built on gains logged after the US Federal Reserve surprised markets earlier in the week with a hawkish hold. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was printing its highest levels since mid-April at 92.4050 which put the index on pace for its best weekly jump in about 14 months. Risk appetite is lower and US stocks are under pressure as the Fed has signalled that it will raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. ”Considering that gold was set-up for a pullback like a speed bump on the racetrack, with speculative and physical flows slowing, the ongoing pullback likely has more room to run.,” analysts at TD Securities explained. ”CTAs can add to their shorts below $1730/oz, which suggests some potential for sustained downside momentum.” Meanwhile, the screw was turned on Friday when St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the US central bank’s toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a “natural” response to economic growth and particularly inflation moving quicker than expected. In this regard, on a quieter week ahead in terms of data, the emphasis will be on the shorter end of the US yield curve which is dollar positive. This may help to push gold below critical weekly support where the counter trendline meets that late April weekly prices, May highs and Nov lows in horizontal structure in the $1,760s. The daily chart shows that the price is on the verge of a weekly bullish Head and Shoulders with the first upside target coming with a confluence of the prior lows and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level." | |
| AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls remain defensive below 0.7500,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-usd-price-analysis-bulls-remain-defensive-below-0-7500/,FX Street,2021-06-21T04:56:40+00:00,"After having intense selling pressure in the last three sessions, AUD/USD prints some gains on Monday. The pair makes an intraday high above 0.7500 key psychological mark, but fails to hold onto the gains. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7492, up 0.20% for the day. On the daily chart, the pair has been under strong selling pressure since it broke the 0.7700 crucial trading level. The formation of multiple bottoms makes it an important level to trade. The price action below the session’s low at 0.7478 could open the fresh round of selling for the pair while keeping the previous year’s level in sight. The first target which the bears would capture would be low on December 10 at 0.7425. The oversold Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator makes bears hopeful for further downside toward December 9, 2020, low at 0.7403. Next, market participants would aim for the 0.7385 horizontal support level. Alternatively, any uptick in the MACD could make sharp upside movement due to overstretched selling conditions. AUD/USD bulls would attempt to reach the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7555. A sustained move above the 200-day SMA will strengthen the bullish biasness in the pair. In doing so, the AUD/USD pair would reach out at the 0.7600 horizontal resistance level followed by the April 13 high at 0.7651." | |
| Asian Stock Market: Japan& | |
| USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee stays weaker above 74.00 even as US yield curve flattens,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-inr-price-news-indian-rupee-stays-weaker-above-74-00-even-as-us-yield-curve-flattens/,FX Street,2021-06-21T04:26:38+00:00,"USD/INR bulls keep reins around 74.25, up 0.16% intraday, amid the initial Indian trading session on Monday. The Indian rupee (INR) pay stepped back from a two-month top the previous day amid market consolidation and improving covid conditions in India. However, fears of the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments keep the pair buyers hopeful. Following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish performance the last Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard became the first independent US banker to back the rate hike views on Friday. The non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasted Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start next year. Even so, the US dollar index (DXY) marked the heaviest weekly jump in three months, currently around 92.30. Although the fears of the Fed’s action propel the greenback bulls, the recent slump in the US Treasury yields probes the DXY upside. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops six basis points (bps) to 1.389%, the lowest in four months whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows, near 1.96% by the press time. Read: US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend Also challenging the USD/INR bulls could be the recent recovery in India’s coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions. As per the latest numbers from the Health Minister, conveyed by Bloomberg, “India reports 53,256 daily rises in coronavirus infections, lowest since March 24, taking total to 29.94 million.” On the same line could be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rush to escalate the foreign exchange reserve to favor international trade. As per the latest monthly bulletin of RBI, India became the world’s fifth-largest reserve holding currency with $600 billion forex reserves, which further rose to $608.08 billion on June 11. While conveying the news, RBI also signaled, indirectly, of its move to escalate the reserve as saying, “This (forex reserves) will still cover less than 15 months of projected imports, against Switzerland’s 39 months, Japan’s 22 months, Russia’s 20 months, and China’s 16 months. Given the lack of major data and mixed catalysts, USD/INR may remain mildly bid around 74.30-25 ahead of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May, prior 0.24, as well as a speech from New York Fed President John C. Williams. Also in the pipeline is India’s Trade Deficit and Balance of Payment (BOP) data for Q1 2021. USD/INR bulls need a clear break of 74.30 to keep the recent upside momentum, else a pullback towards the 74.00 and then to 50-day SMA near 73.68 can’t be ruled out." | |
| European Central Bank to use digital euro to combat & | |
| GBP/USD declines below 1.3800 amid USD strength,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-usd-declines-below-1-3800-amid-usd-strength/,FX Street,2021-06-21T03:56:41+00:00,"GBP/USD continues to trade lower on Monday while trailing the previous seven session’s downside movement. The pair trades in a very narrow trade band before slipping below the 1.3800 mark. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3790, down 0.12% for the day. The US treasury yields continue to retreat after investors digested the Fed hawkish inflation and interest rates outlook. The yield curve flattens as the short term bond yields are rising more than the benchmark 10-year bond yields. The short term bond yields are more sensitive to the rate changes. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands strong, however it experiences minor pullback following the fall in US treasury yields. The US dollar also gains as the risk sentiment deteriorates with falling equities and commodity prices. It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,129, down 0.58%. Market participants ditched sterling after the extended lockdown in the UK as the country failed to hold on to the existing plan of full economic reopening on June 21 due to rising corona cases. Meanwhile, the UK Retail Sales fell unexpectedly in May. The headline inflation rate rose more than expected in May to the highest level since July 2019 and above the Bank of England (BOE) target of 2.0%. Brexit could unleash havoc on the UK steel industry as warned by Tories. The cheap foreign imports in the name of a free trade agreement between the UK and EU under Brexit protocol could harm the domestic steel manufacturers. This, in turn, soured the sentiment surrounding the sterling. In the absence of a strong macroeconomic catalyst, the dynamics around the US dollar continue to influence the pair’s performance in the near future." | |
| S&P 500 Futures refresh monthly low as US Treasury yields drop to four-month bottom,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/sp-500-futures-refresh-monthly-low-as-us-treasury-yields-drop-to-four-month-bottom/,FX Street,2021-06-21T03:56:38+00:00,"S&P 500 Futures remain offered around 4,128, down 0.60% intraday, amid early Monday. The risk barometer bears the burden of downbeat US Treasury yields, as well as the inflation expectations, amid a quiet start to the week. Both the key Treasury yield benchmarks of the US, namely 10-year and 30-year bonds, extend the early Asian south-run to a fresh low since February, suggesting a further flattening of the yield curve. That said, The US 10-year Treasury yield drops six basis points (bps) to 1.389%, the lowest in four months whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows, near 1.96% by the press time. It’s worth noting that the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), dropped to the lowest since early March, around 2.24%, by the end of Friday’s closing. Weigh on the Treasury yields and market sentiment could be comments from the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, published Friday, as he was the first US banker to cross the wires after the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The non-voting member of the Fed forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start next year. On a different page, a lack of progress over the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending package, as well as fears of the covid’s Delta variant resurgence, also weigh on the market sentiment. The same risk-off mood also drowns Asia-Pacific equities with Nikkei 225 leading the losses by 3.30% intraday loss. Moving on, a lack of major data/events could keep markets directed towards the central bankers’ comments for fresh impulse. Hence, today’s speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and New York Fed President John C. Williams will be the key to follow." | |
| EUR/USD sellers attack 1.1850 ahead of ECB& | |
| Bitcoin hashrate suffers massive drop as China continues to crack down on BTC mining,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/bitcoin-hashrate-suffers-massive-drop-as-china-continues-to-crack-down-on-btc-mining/,FX Street,2021-06-21T02:51:45+00:00,"China has continued to crack down on cryptocurrencies as Sichuan ordered energy companies to stop providing power to 26 Bitcoin mining farms in the region. After a meeting between China’s Science and Technology Bureau and the Sichuan Ya’an Energy Bureau, Bitcoin miners in the region were informed that they must cease operations by June 25. Sichuan, a region in the southwest of China, has been popular among Bitcoin mining farms due to the abundance of cheap hydroelectricity produced during the rainy season, which lasts for up to five months during the summer. Power companies in the province notified miners that they would be closed until further notice. Energy firms were required to cut the power by the start of June 20. Since China started to toughen its stance on cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin price has been in decline, suffering from its worst crash. The southwest region has become the fifth province in the country that has announced a crackdown on crypto mining farms. In May, China’s State Council stated crypto mining on its list of financial risks that required monitoring, despite having banned digital assets since 2017. Shortly following the announcement, provinces including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Yunnan also discouraged and banned Bitcoin mining. While the rainy season draws miners to the Sichuan province, miners migrate to Xinjiang for the rest of the year, where they rely on coal-powered energy sources when the weather cools down. According to the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance, China accounts for over 65% of the Bitcoin network’s hashrate. Following Sichuan’s new development in halting mining operations, mining power backing Bitcoin fell almost 17%. In comparison, the power outage in Xinjiang that occurred in April led to a Bitcoin hash rate decline of 30%, provoking a $10,000 drop in BTC price. According to BTC.com data, Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to record an 11.18% drop. Bitcoin mining difficulty, which measures how hard it is for miners to create a new block on the blockchain, already witnessed two negative adjustments in the past month, as it dropped from 25.046 trillion to 19.932 trillion. It is essential to note that when the leading cryptocurrency logged three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments in a row, the market has seen a massive drop in digital asset prices. At the time in December 2018, miners were even switching off their equipment, given the rapid fall in prices." | |
| NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls on the way to recovery defend 0.6950,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/nzd-usd-price-analysis-bulls-on-the-way-to-recovery-defend-0-6950/,FX Street,2021-06-21T02:51:40+00:00,"NZD/USD recovers part of its previous day’s losses on Monday. The pair edges higher with 30 pips movement. As of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6965, up 0.46% for the day. On the daily chart, NZD/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7041, which ignited a fresh round of selling in the pair. After testing the levels, last seen in March, the pair bounce back from the lower levels. NZD/USD bulls would be encouraged to test the previous day’s high in the vicinity of the 0.7020 level on a sustained move above 0.6970. The price action suggests the 0.7050 horizontal resistance level as the next target for the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in the oversold zone, which signifies stretched selling conditions. It implies the possibility of NZD/USD claiming back the 0.7100 key psychological mark. Alternatively, if price breaks the intraday low of 0.6934, then it could continue with the prevailing downtrend. In doing so, NZD/USD could go back to the levels last seen in 2020. The bears would be meeting the first target of 0.6917, a low made on 24 November 2020. Next, the pair could approach the 0.6900 horizontal support level followed by November 19 low at 0.6878." | |
| Australia& | |
| Lagarde speech: ECB has & | |
| Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD finding its feet above $1770 amid sell-off in Treasury yields,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-finding-its-feet-above-1770-amid-sell-off-in-treasury-yields/,FX Street,2021-06-21T02:36:36+00:00,"Update: Gold price has turned positive for the first time in one week, having found some support just above $1760. The ongoing decline in the US Treasury yield across the curve is saving the day for the gold bulls. Falling inflation expectations and uncertainty over the US infrastructure spending plans is weighing heavily on the returns on the markets, as investors re-think the Fed’s hawkish stance. Last week, gold dropped 6% after Fed signaled sooner-than-expected rate hikes, which killed the demand for the yieldless gold. Gold price hit the lowest in two months last Friday at $1760. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1774, up 0.55% on the day. Read: Chart of the Week: Gold bulls stepping in at critical support A stronger USD following the Federal Reserve hawkish tone kept the commodities complex down and weighed n precious metals. Gold experienced heavy selling, with the precious metal closing below $1,800/oz and ending down by 0.52% at $1,764.23 ranging between a low of $1,761.04 and $1,797.31. The US dollar extended its advance against a basket of currencies in a classic short squeeze as it built on gains logged after the US Federal Reserve surprised markets earlier in the week with a hawkish hold. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was printing its highest levels since mid-April at 92.4050 which put the index on pace for its best weekly jump in about 14 months. Risk appetite is lower and US stocks are under pressure as the Fed has signalled that it will raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. ”Considering that gold was set-up for a pullback like a speed bump on the racetrack, with speculative and physical flows slowing, the ongoing pullback likely has more room to run.,” analysts at TD Securities explained. ”CTAs can add to their shorts below $1730/oz, which suggests some potential for sustained downside momentum.” Meanwhile, the screw was turned on Friday when St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the US central bank’s toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a “natural” response to economic growth and particularly inflation moving quicker than expected. In this regard, on a quieter week ahead in terms of data, the emphasis will be on the shorter end of the US yield curve which is dollar positive. This may help to push gold below critical weekly support where the counter trendline meets that late April weekly prices, May highs and Nov lows in horizontal structure in the $1,760s. The daily chart shows that the price is on the verge of a weekly bullish Head and Shoulders with the first upside target coming with a confluence of the prior lows and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level." | |
| US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY bulls stay directed towards 92.50-55 key hurdle,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-dollar-index-price-analysis-dxy-bulls-stay-directed-towards-92-50-55-key-hurdle/,FX Street,2021-06-21T02:16:39+00:00,"US dollar index (DXY) picks up bids around 92.30, reverses early Asian losses, during Monday’s pre-European session trading. The greenback gauge jumped to the highest since April 09 the previous day before stepping back from 92.40. Even so, the index keeps the latest week’s upside break of 200-day SMA (DMA) and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-May declines amid the firmer Momentum line. The same joins the rush to risk-safety that puts a safe-haven bid under the US dollar to keep the DXY on the bull’s radar. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since early Mach, around 92.50-55, becomes a tough nut to crack for the USD bulls before targeting the yearly high of 93.43. During the run-up, the 92.90 and the 93.00 threshold may also act as short-term resistances. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initial aim for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 91.95 before challenging the 91.50-48 support confluence including 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Even if the DXY drops below 91.48, March’s low near 91.30 can act as an extra filter to the south. Trend: Bullish" | |
| EUR/CHF Price Analysis: Bears stepping in at critical resistance,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-chf-price-analysis-bears-stepping-in-at-critical-resistance/,FX Street,2021-06-21T02:06:38+00:00,"The cross is on the verge of completing a significant correction if it has not already done so in the meeting structure. A break of the resistance will be a crucial development in the bulls case for further gains. However, at this juncture, the focus is on the downside to restest the old resistance to the downside." | |
| "AUD/USD: Recovery moves capped near 0.7500 after Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-usd-recovery-moves-capped-near-0-7500-after-aussie-retail-sales-pboc/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:51:38+00:00,"AUD/USD bulls ignore downbeat Aussie data as attacking the intraday high of 0.7512 amid the early Monday’s trading. In doing so, the Aussie pair keeps the early Asian recovery moves, amid the broad US dollar pullback, while snapping a four-day downtrend with a 0.42% intraday upside. Australia’s first reading of May’s Retail Sales eased below 0.7% forecast and 1.1% MoM prior to 0.1%, justifying the market fears of the negative economic impact of Victoria’s snap lockdown. Also, on the same line could be the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged near 3.85% despite recently suggesting the pause in the further easy monetary policy. It’s worth noting that the US dollar index (DXY) steps back from the 10-week top amid a downbeat performance of the US Treasury yields, helping the AUD/USD prices to remain firm by the press time. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop to the lowest since early March, down 3.4 basis points (bps) to 1.41%, while tracking the US inflation expectations to the south. Read: US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend Given the US dollar’s consolidation of the recent gains, coupled with downbeat bond yields, equities in Asia-Pacific remain on the back foot with Japan’s Nikkei 225 being the biggest loser, down 3.22% intraday by the time of the press whereas S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% on a day. While cheering USD pullback, the AUD/USD pair ignores downbeat market sentiment as well as chatters relating to the Pacific major’s push to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for saving it from China’s tariffs. Also on the same side could be the global fears of the covid’s Delta variant and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending package. Having witnessed an initial reaction to the Asian session’s key data/events, AUD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the Fedspeak and Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May, prior 0.24, for fresh impulse. Should the Fed policymakers remain hawkish, the US dollar rebound can’t be ruled out, which in turn will challenge the Aussie pair’s latest recovery moves. 200-day SMA level near 0.7555-60, followed by the previous support line from December around 0.7580, restricts short-term AUD/USD upside, which in turn keeps the bear directed to August 2020 top near 0.7420-15." | |
| "Aussie Retail Sales: Lower than expected, AUD steady",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aussie-retail-sales-lower-than-expected-aud-steady/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:36:37+00:00,"The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follows: Analysts at Westpac said prior to the data that there was renewed COVID turbulence following Victoria’s move into a 14-day lockdown. ”That said, this occurred late in the month and was preceded by a lift in ‘stockpiling’ spending in the state.” The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it”s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish." | |
| China one year loan prime rate unchanged,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/china-one-year-loan-prime-rate-unchanged/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:31:37+00:00,China Leaves One-Year Loan Prime Rate Unchanged At 3.85% As Expected – China Leaves Five-Year Loan Prime Rate Unchanged At 4.65% As Expected More to come… | |
| US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-treasury-yields-drop-to-early-2021-levels-during-three-day-downtrend/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:26:38+00:00,"US Treasury bond yields remain pressured for the third consecutive day amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the risk gauge tracks the US inflation expectations while also justifying the fears over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish mood, conveyed during the last week. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops three basis points (bps) to 1.42%, the lowest since March 03 whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows surrounding 2.0%. On the same line, the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, drop to the lowest since early March levels, around 2.24% by the press time. Behind the moves could be the escalating chatters over the Fed’s rate hike and uncertainty concerning US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure relief package. Having heard the upward revision of the Fed’s economic forecasts and increasing support for two rate hikes in 2023, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start in next year. Its’ worth noting that Reuters came out with the weekend update over infrastructure spending talks in the US Senate while signaling that the plan, “has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded.” Elsewhere, fears of the Delta variant of the covid and Brexit also weigh on the market sentiment. Amid these plays, Nikkei drops the most since early May to lead Asian markets towards the south whereas the S&P 500 Futures print 0.20% intraday losses by the press time. Given the lack of major data/events, the risk appetite is likely to remain sour ahead of the US session when the Chicago Fed activity data and Fedspeak may offer fresh direction to the market. Read: Post-Fed Markets: What to expect next?" | |
| USD/CNY fix: 6.4546 vs prior 6.4361,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-cny-fix-6-4546-vs-prior-6-4361/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:21:41+00:00,"In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4546 vs the estimated 6.4518 and the previous 6.4361. China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer." | |
| "EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Pulls back from weekly resistance, 200-HMA",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-gbp-price-analysis-pulls-back-from-weekly-resistance-200-hma/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:06:39+00:00,"EUR/GBP sellers attack nearby support line while taking offers around 0.8588 during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair kept Friday’s U-turn during the early day before reversing from 0.85990. In doing so, the quote reversed from 200-HMA and a descending resistance line from June 10. Given the receding strength of the RSI line and a pullback from the key hurdles, EUR/GBP prices may drop below the immediate support line from Thursday, near 0.8590, which in turn could extend the recent declines toward a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 11 around 0.8568. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s weakness past 0.8568 won’t hesitate to attack the monthly low near 0.8540. Meanwhile, buyers could return on the upside break of the stated resistance line near the 0.8600 threshold whereas the 200-HMA level of 0.8591 can offer resistance. If at all the EUR/GBP run-up crosses the 0.8600 mark, 0.8630 and the monthly high near 0.8645 will be in focus. Trend: Pullback expected" | |
| AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls look to extend gains beyond 82.80,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-jpy-price-analysis-bulls-look-to-extend-gains-beyond-82-80/,FX Street,2021-06-21T01:01:39+00:00,"AUD/JPY edges higher on Monday to begin the new trading week with a positive note. The pair opened in the vicinity of the previous session’s low near the 82.40 level and touched a high of 82.75, where it waivers now. On the daily chart, the AUD/JPY price has formed a double bottom formation near the 82.40 mark, which is a bullish formation. A sustained move above the intraday high at 82.75 could further push the pair higher in the territory of the 83.20 horizontal resistance level. Next, AUD/JPY bulls would like to retest the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 83.71. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator reads below 50 with stretched selling opportunities. An uptick in the RSI coupled with a break of the above mentioned 100-day SMA would open the possibility of the high of June 17 at 84.62 for the bulls. Alternatively, if price moves lower then it could bring the levels last seen in March back into the picture. The cross shall look out for the March 1 low in the vicinity of the 82.10 area. A break below the 82.00 key psychological level would open the gates for the February 18 low at 81.82 followed by the 81.45 horizontal support level." | |
| AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls eye a daily 38.2% Fibo,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-usd-price-analysis-bulls-eye-a-daily-38-2-fibo/,FX Street,2021-06-21T00:36:38+00:00,The following illustrates how the bulls are taking charge and the potential of a significant upside correction. The bulls have stepped in and taken the price up to meet the prior hourly highs. This now leaves a bullish case on the table and a W-formation that would be expected to hamstring the initial bullish attempts at the old support structure. The bulls can target a confluence of the prior support structure and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. | |
| Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD justifies shooting star above 200-DMA as bulls attack $26.00,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/silver-price-analysis-xag-usd-justifies-shooting-star-above-200-dma-as-bulls-attack-26-00/,FX Street,2021-06-21T00:31:39+00:00,"Silver (XAG/USD) portrays a corrective pullback while taking rounds to $25.95, up 0.53% intraday, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal justifies Friday’s trend reversal candlestick formation above 200-day SMA (DMA). Although the latest recovery eyes to regain the $26.00 round figure, a three-month-old horizontal resistance around $26.65 will test the silver bulls afterward. Also acting as the upside filter is the $27.15-20 area comprising multiple levels marked since early May. On the flip side, a daily closing below the 200-DMA level of $25.72 will be probed by April 08 high near $25.60. However, a clear downside past $25.60 won’t hesitate to conquer the $25.00 threshold while targeting the $24.45-50 area including late-March and early April levels, a break of which will direct silver bears to the yearly low of $23.77. Trend: Further recovery expected" | |
| USD/CHF consolidates gains above 0.9220 amid steady USD,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-chf-consolidates-gains-above-0-9220-amid-steady-usd/,FX Street,2021-06-21T00:11:41+00:00,"USD/CHF remains muted in the initial Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair posted a stellar performance in the previous week while touching the multi-month highs near 0.9240. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9222, down 0.01% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, remains strong at 92.24. The gains in the USD traced back to the Fed’s surprise action in which the central bank raised its inflation forecast and two rate hikes in 2023. Meanwhile, the US authorities have extended travel restrictions at Canada and Mexico land borders until at least July 21. In addition to that, the US wants to finalize the nuclear deal with Iran before the new hardline president takes over charge. Western officials have warned that negotiations to revive its nuclear deal could not continue indefinitely after Iran announced a break following the elections in the country. This, in turn, heightened the market volatility, which benefited the US dollar. Market participants remained unfazed by the much anticipated move of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which kept its ultra accommodative monetary policy unchanged. As for now, the dynamics around the US dollar continue to influence the pair’s performance for the time being." | |
| GBP/JPY snaps four-day downtrend to stay above 152.00 amid mixed clues,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-jpy-snaps-four-day-downtrend-to-stay-above-152-00-amid-mixed-clues/,FX Street,2021-06-21T00:11:38+00:00,"GBP/JPY consolidates recent losses around 152.30, up 0.10% intraday, as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. In doing so, the pair rises for the first time in the last five days as the Japanese yen (JPY) bears the burden of the downbeat US Treasury yields amid a lackluster session. The US 10-year Treasury yields remain pressured for the third consecutive day, tracking the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, by the press time. The risk barometer seems to justify the market’s rate hike expectations following the last week’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It’s worth noting that fresh clues suggesting fewer odds to keep the UK’s virus-led lockdown beyond July 05, per the Sky News, adds to the GBP/JPY pair’s strength. Furthermore, polls from Japan’s Kyodo news, showing 86% of people are concerned about a rebound in COVID-19 cases if the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics are staged this summer add to the pair’s recent strength. It should, however, be observed that the pair buyers are cautious ahead of this week’s Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting and also weigh the Brexit deadlock to hesitate in conveying the bullish bias. On the same side could be the news showing the spike in the UK’s covid infections, mainly relating to the Delta variant. Talking about the data, the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index for June jumped above 2.1% YoY to 7.5% and offered an extra strength to the GBP/JPY upside. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.12% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 begins Monday’s trading with around 2.0% losses, tracking Friday’s Wall Street performance. Moving on, a lack of major data/events could keep GBP/JPY traders clueless, which in turn highlights the covid and Fed updates as the key catalysts. Multiple levels since March restrict short-term GBP/JPY declines around the 152.00 threshold, breaking which an ascending trend line from mid-February, near 151.45, could test the pair sellers. It should, however, be noted that the bulls aren’t likely to risk entries until the quote stays below April’s top surrounding 153.40." | |
| EUR/USD Price Analysis: Corrective pullback prints falling wedge below 1.1900,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/eur-usd-price-analysis-corrective-pullback-prints-falling-wedge-below-1-1900/,FX Street,2021-06-20T23:41:39+00:00,"EUR/USD extends late Friday’s recovery towards 1.1900, up 0.10% around 1.1875, during Monday Asian session. In doing so, the currency major portrays a bullish chart pattern, falling wedge, near the lowest levels since April 08. Given the RSI’s U-turn from oversold territory gaining support from the strong Momentum line, EUR/USD may extend the corrective pullback towards the 1.1900 threshold. However, the stated formation’s resistance line near 1.1885 becomes an immediate hurdle to cross. Although falling wedge breakout gains momentum near the multi-day low, if broken, a descending resistance line from June 11 near 1.1960 could probe the bulls holding the theoretical target over the 1.2000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the EUR/USD buyers will remain cautious unless witnessing a clear break of the 200-HMA level around 1.2085. Alternatively, the recent low near 1.1850 and the stated pattern’s support line close to 1.1825 could test the pair sellers during the fresh downside. In a case where EUR/USD bears keep the reins below 1.1825, the 1.1800 round figure and the yearly bottom near 1.1705 will be on their radars. Trend: Further recovery expected" | |
| Gold bulls target old daily support and a 38.2% Fibo,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gold-bulls-target-old-daily-support-and-a-38-2-fibo/,FX Street,2021-06-20T23:41:36+00:00,"A stronger USD following the Federal Reserve hawkish tone kept the commodities complex down and weighed n precious metals. Gold experienced heavy selling, with the precious metal closing below $1,800/oz and ending down by 0.52% at $1,764.23 ranging between a low of $1,761.04 and $1,797.31. The US dollar extended its advance against a basket of currencies in a classic short squeeze as it built on gains logged after the US Federal Reserve surprised markets earlier in the week with a hawkish hold. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was printing its highest levels since mid-April at 92.4050 which put the index on pace for its best weekly jump in about 14 months. Risk appetite is lower and US stocks are under pressure as the Fed has signalled that it will raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. ”Considering that gold was set-up for a pullback like a speed bump on the racetrack, with speculative and physical flows slowing, the ongoing pullback likely has more room to run.,” analysts at TD Securities explained. ”CTAs can add to their shorts below $1730/oz, which suggests some potential for sustained downside momentum.” Meanwhile, the screw was turned on Friday when St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the US central bank’s toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a “natural” response to economic growth and particularly inflation moving quicker than expected. In this regard, on a quieter week ahead in terms of data, the emphasis will be on the shorter end of the US yield curve which is dollar positive. This may help to push gold below critical weekly support where the counter trendline meets that late April weekly prices, May highs and Nov lows in horizontal structure in the $1,760s. The daily chart shows that the price is on the verge of a weekly bullish Head and Shoulders with the first upside target coming with a confluence of the prior lows and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level." | |
| "AUD/USD consolidates losses around 0.7500, Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC eyed",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-usd-consolidates-losses-around-0-7500-aussie-retail-sales-pboc-eyed/,FX Street,2021-06-20T23:26:38+00:00,"AUD/USD buyers poke the 0.7500 threshold, up 0.30% intraday, as traders consolidate recent losses ahead of Monday’s key events in Asia. The uptick in stock futures and the pre-data jitters back the latest corrective pullback in the Aussie prices around yearly low. However, the bears remain hopeful amid the Fed’s rate-hike concerns and the recent Aussie-China tussles. S&P 500 Futures bounce off monthly low, up 0.16% around 4,148, as market players await more clues from the Fed to confirm the rate hike or tapering concerns triggered the last week. Also supporting the risk-barometer could be the chatters relating to US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending and Asia-Pacific nations’ recovery from the pandemic. Even so, the US dollar index (DXY) stays bid on the safe-haven demand, backed by the downbeat US Treasury yields and the US inflation expectations. The early signals of the US inflation expectations, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, dropped to the lowest since early March on Friday. The reason could be traced from the comments of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start in next year. Earlier last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised up inflation and growth forecasts while also unveiled the policymakers’ bullish bias on rates via the dot-plot. The same triggered speculations of the Fed’s much-awaited monetary policy consolidation. It’s worth noting that Australia’s run-up to complain the World Trade Organization (WTO) over China’s imposition of tariffs on the country’s wine should have also weighed on the AUD/USD prices, but didn’t. Additionally, fears of the Delta variant of the covid and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending bill are extra negatives for the quote. Even so, AUD/USD traders seem optimistic ahead of the preliminary readings of May month’s Retail Sales, expected 0.7% versus 1.0% prior, as well as a monetary policy decision of the People’s Bank of China. While Aussie data may portray the effects of a snap lockdown, PBOC could keep its status quo and battle the pair bears. Following that Fed policymakers’ comments during the US session may provide clearer directions to the pair traders. Unless crossing 200-day SMA level near 0.7555-60, not to forget previous support line from December around 0.7580, AUD/USD prices remain directed to August 2020 top near 0.7420-15." | |
| "Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH presents buy signal, targeting $2,500",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/ethereum-price-prediction-eth-presents-buy-signal-targeting-2500/,FX Street,2021-06-20T23:16:44+00:00,"Ethereum price seems primed for a bullish impulse after a particular technical indicator presented a buy signal on the 12-hour chart. Ethereum price has been in a downtrend since the beginning of June, shedding nearly 30% in market value. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization dropped from a high of $2,900 to recently hit a low of $2,040. Despite the significant losses incurred over the past three weeks, Ethereum price looks primed to rebound. The Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator presented a buy signal on the 12-hour chart after ETH tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The bullish formation developed in the form of a green nine candlestick, which is indicative of a one to four 12-hour candlestick upswing. A spike in buying pressure around the current price levels could see Ethereum price rise toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,540. ETH/USDt 12-hour chart Even though the odds seem to favor the bulls, Ethereum price must remain trading above $2,040 to validate the bullish outlook. Failing to hold above this critical support level might spell trouble for the bulls. A 12-hour candlestick close below the $2,040 support may result in a retest of May 23 or May 19’s low. These interest areas sit at $1,730 and $1,400, respectively." | |
| "GBP/USD defends 1.3800 as covid, Brexit woes battle pre-BOE caution",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/gbp-usd-defends-1-3800-as-covid-brexit-woes-battle-pre-boe-caution/,FX Street,2021-06-20T23:01:38+00:00,"GBP/USD bears take a breather around 1.3800, following the heaviest weekly fall since September 2020, amid a quiet Asian session on Monday. While the broad US dollar strength, mainly due to the Fed rate hike concerns, could be cited as the key catalyst behind the cable’s recent weakness, Brexit deadlock and a spike in the UK’s cases concerning Delta variant of the covid also weigh on the quote. Even so, the pair traders await this week’s Bank of England (BOE) meeting for fresh clues. Friday’s comments from the St. Louis Fed President Bullard were the first post-FOMC comments by US central bankers which kept rate hike concerns on the table. Earlier in the week, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) early signals for the Fed rate hike and bond purchase tapering triggered a rush to risk-safety and propelled the US dollar index (DXY) the most in three months. On the other hand, the European Union (EU) and the UK keep battling over the Brexit issue, mainly concerning the Northern Ireland (NI) border, as policymakers push Britain to keep its word while signed the earlier Brexit deal. The deadlock hardens life in Ireland and hence the looming concerns weigh on the GBP/USD as it becomes London’s responsibility to help Irish voters who backed UK PM Boris Johnson. Elsewhere, the Delta variant keeps troubling the UK policymakers even if they’re optimistic over the economic trajectory and have already announced a one-month delay to the unlock from the original June 21 deadline. The +10,000 covid infections for the third day and 79% rise in Delta strain cases push the UK’s scientists to predict a third wave of the virus. However, The Sky quotes Brendan Wren, Professor of vaccinology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while mentioning that having more than 81% of the adult population with a first coronavirus jab, and 59% with both doses is “very encouraging”. It’s worth noting that the weekend news from Reuters relating to the global rating agency Fitch’s upward revision to the BOE’s outlook also favors GBP/USD to probe bears. “Fitch Ratings has revised the Bank of England’s (BoE) Outlook to Stable from Negative, while affirming the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘AA-‘,” said the news. Amid these plays, risk barometers like the stock futures and bond yields remain pressured and keep the US dollar bid. However, pre-BOE caution seems to restrict the GBP/USD downside. Given the light calendar on Monday, as well as chatters over the Fed rate hike, the Fedspeak will be the key. However, Thursday’s BOE will be crucial for GBP/USD as traders awaited policymakers’ confirmation over tapering, which if announced could reverse the latest losses. A clear downside break of the 100-day EMA and an ascending trend line from December 2020, respectively around 1.3900 and 1.3985, directs GBP/USD towards late January 2021 tops surrounding 1.3760." | |
| AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bulls struggle near 50-day SMA in rising channel,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/aud-nzd-price-analysis-bulls-struggle-near-50-day-sma-in-rising-channel/,FX Street,2021-06-20T22:56:38+00:00,"AUD/NZD prints some mild gains on the first day of the fresh trading week. The pair confides in a very narrow trade band and swings back and forth in the known territories. As of writing, AUD/NZD trades at 1.0789 with 0.07% gains for the day. On the 60-minute chart, the AUD/NZD currency pair moves in a rising channel, while bulls face upside pressure near 1.0805. AUD/NZD bulls remain hopeful as long price sustains above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0783. That said if price breaks above the session’s high at 1.0796 then a potential upside toward the previous day’s high at 1.0814 can not be ruled out. This also coincides with the upper trading line of the channel. In doing so, there is plenty of room for the pair to test the levels last seen in April. The first in line would be the April 20 high at 1.0825 followed by the 1.0851 mark touched on April 19. Alternatively, the receding Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signals some negative bias in the price. Any downtick in the MACD could bring sellers back into action. AUD/NZD bears would target the 1.0775 horizontal support level, while keeping an eye on June 17 low at 1.0743. The next area support could be located at the June 8 low at 1.0714." | |
| WTI bulls holding the fort below trendline resistance,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/wti-bulls-holding-the-fort-below-trendline-resistance/,FX Street,2021-06-20T22:41:38+00:00,"Oil prices fell for a second day early on Friday with the greenback extending its gains across both the forex board and the commodities space in general. However, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil started to rise later in the day and was ending Friday higher by over 0.5% despite the strength in the US dollar. Spot WTI rose from a low of $70.18 to a high of $72.14 ending the day at $71.41. As for futures, WTI crude for July delivery settled up US$0.60 to US$71.64 per barrel. At the time of writing, WTI is trading 0.35% hitherto 471.66 from the lows of $71.41 and has reached a high of $71.71 so far on the session. The markets are consolidating last week’s action that followed the Federal Reserve’s switch to a more hawkish monetary policy on expectations of higher demand. Amid controlled supply from the OPEC+ group and holidays as a big majority of the global population emerges from lockdown, oil demand is recovering from pandemic lows as gasoline and aviation fuel use rise. Stemming the advance, however, could be blamed on US oil production prospects with the Baker-Hughes weekly rig count advancing. Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a Summer Breakout to unfold as a global vaccination rollout drives mobility sharply higher this summer, while OPEC’s cautious plan to raise output should tighten the market with considerable deficits expected in the coming months. ”In this context, our gauge of energy supply risk continues to trend higher, with supply artificially constrained amid lingering negotiations with Iran and a cautious OPEC+. However, this set-up should drain oil inventories towards the critical benchmarks set by the 2015-19 average levels by July, which could prompt OPEC+ to ramp up the pace on the unwind of their deal.” Technically, the price has pierced below the dynamic daily trendline support and has retested it as a counter trendline. The bulls stepped in at the 8th June range and old resistance will come back under pressure this week if the bulls cannot regain territory above the daily counter trendline. 72.41 is important in this regard. From an hourly perspective, the price could be on the verge of an additional retest, the bearish bias persists, especially below the 21-EMA and 38.2% Fibo confluence of support." | |
| USD/CAD Price Analysis: Eases below five-month-old resistance under 1.2500,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-cad-price-analysis-eases-below-five-month-old-resistance-under-1-2500/,FX Street,2021-06-20T22:21:37+00:00,"USD/CAD consolidates Friday’s heavy gains with a recent decline to 1.2450 amid the initial Asian session on Monday. Even so, the Loonie pair keeps the previous day’s breakout of the key resistance line, now the immediate support, from October 2020. Given the bullish MACD and the pair’s sustained trading above the previously important resistance, USD/CAD traders may ignore the latest weakness in the prices until the quote stays above the stated trend line around 1.2390. It’s worth noting that 1.2320 and 1.2270 are extra filters to the pair’s downside below the previous resistance line. Meanwhile, the fresh upside will aim for a downward sloping trend line from January 28, near 1.2485. However, any further rise needs to cross the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of September 2020 to June 2021 downside, around 1.2550. Though, a convergence of 200-day SMA (DMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 1.2705-10, will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Overall, USD/CAD bulls seem tiring of late but the bears need confirmation for fresh entry. Trend: Bullish" | |
| "USD/JPY remains grounded above 110.20 amid steady USD, risk aversion",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/usd-jpy-remains-grounded-above-110-20-amid-steady-usd-risk-aversion/,FX Street,2021-06-20T22:06:38+00:00,"USD/JPY continues to move in the upward direction, a trend set in the second week of June. After making a low at 107.47 in late April, the pair is rising steadily with YTD in focus. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 110.23, up 0.04% for the day. The move is primarily sponsored by the appreciation of the US dollar. The greenback stands at 92.30, the levels last seen in April. The previous week counted as the best week in terms of gains for USD since March 2020. The Fed surprised the market on Wednesday by raising the inflation forecast and two rate hikes in 2023. Investors rushed to the US dollar in the wake of higher interest rate expectations, while equities and commodities tumbled. Meanwhile, the US 10-year benchmark yields edge lower at 1.44% with 0.48% losses. The fall in the long-dated bond yields limits the gains for USD/JPY. On the other hand, the Japanese yen came under pressure after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) extended its pandemic-relief program till September, which is an extension of six months. The move reflects the problem in the pace of economic recovery as the country lags behind the developed nations in containing the COVID-19. In the economic docket, investors will have the opportunity to react to the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May) and Fed’s William’s speech." | |
| "US extends travel restrictions at Canada, Mexico land borders through July 21",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/21/us-extends-travel-restrictions-at-canada-mexico-land-borders-through-july-21/,FX Street,2021-06-20T22:01:38+00:00,"Early Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the latest updates from the US Homeland Security Department, conveyed on Sunday, suggesting the land borders with Canada and Mexico will remain closed to non-essential travel until at least July 21. “The 30-day extension came after Canada announced its own extension on Friday of the requirements that were set to expire on Monday and have been in place since March 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic,” adds Reuters. It should, however, be noted that the US Homeland Security also mentioned, per Reuters, that it noted “positive developments in recent weeks and is participating with other U.S. agencies in the White House’s expert working groups with Canada and Mexico to identify the conditions under which restrictions may be eased safely and sustainably.” The news should ideally weigh on the market sentiment and add to the safe-haven demand of the US dollar while also negatively affecting the USD/CAD prices. Read: USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: The long decline ends" | |
| US senators haggle over funding of $1 trillion infrastructure compromise,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/us-senators-haggle-over-funding-of-1-trillion-infrastructure-compromise/,FX Street,2021-06-20T21:56:38+00:00,"Reuters provided an update over the White House negotiations on US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan during the weekend while suggesting the plan, “has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded.” After cutting the total outlay to the fourth of what originally proposed, US President Biden told reporters, per Reuters, last week to have a response to the plan as soon as Monday. However, the same is unlikely to be delivered considering the current progress. “Twenty-one of the 100 U.S. senators – including 11 Republicans, nine Democrats and one independent who caucuses with Democrats – are working on the framework to rebuild roads, bridges and other traditional infrastructure that sources said would cost $1.2 trillion over eight years,” added Reuters. The news also mentions that Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders was unclear, on CNN’s “State of the Union” and NBC’s “Meet the Press”, about whether he could support the bipartisan plan even if the tough area like indexing the gas tax to inflation were removed. In a piece of separate news, also conveyed by Reuters, the White House said on Sunday it saw as an “interesting signal” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s comments that he is ready for “dialogue and confrontation,” but added that Washington was still waiting for direct communication from Pyongyang to start any talks relating to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. While North Korean news could be cited as the risk-positive, it has a little importance of late versus the US stimulus talks and hence an extended deadlock over the spending talks could exert additional downside pressure on the market’s sentiment. That said, the early Asian session saw the Antipodeans extending the previous day’s downside momentum near the yearly low. Read: NZD/USD: Bears flirt with seven-month low above 0.6900 amid broad USD strength" | |
| NZD/USD: Bears flirt with seven-month low above 0.6900 amid broad USD strength,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/nzd-usd-bears-flirt-with-seven-month-low-above-0-6900-amid-broad-usd-strength/,FX Street,2021-06-20T21:41:38+00:00,"NZD/USD struggles to overcome the yearly bottom, taking rounds to 0.6930-40, amid the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair remains indecisive after posting the heaviest weekly drop in nine months, not to forget dropping for the third consecutive weeks, to test the lowest levels since November 2020. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) much-awaited June meeting played the key role in portraying the biggest US dollar index (DXY) run-up since March. After initially cheering the Fed’s upwardly revised dot-plot and economic forecasts, suggesting fears ahead, the greenback gauge benefited from the rate hike comments by the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. In his latest comments, Fed’s Bullard said, he sees a case for rates to rise next year. “St Louis Fed President Bullard was the first post-FOMC meeting speaker and wasted no time in advocating his recent more hawkish views. He said he forecast core PCE at 3.0% for the end of this year and 2.5% for the end of 2022, which he believes would justify a rate tightening cycle starting late next year,” per the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). Despite being a non-voting Fed member, the comments were the first from the US banker and hence triggered the rush to risk-safety, which in turn put a bid under the USD. That said, the DXY refreshed the highest levels since early April whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 6.8 basis points to 1.44%, the pre-Fed meeting levels. It’s worth noting that the escalation in the tussles between the Western friends, including the US, the UK and Australia, with China adds to the downside pressure on the NZD/USD prices as Auckland also witnesses souring relations with its top-tier customer of late. Additionally, fears of the Delta variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and sluggish growth over talks of US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan also weigh on the risk appetite and to Antipodeans. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events at home requires NZD/USD traders to keep their eyes on Australia’s preliminary Retail Sales for May, 0.7% expected versus 1.1% prior, as well as monetary policy meeting of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), no changes expected, for fresh impulse. Although both these events are less likely to reverse the current downtrend of the pair, moves of the US Treasury yields and the US dollar should be watched closely for clear direction. A daily close below the year’s bottom surrounding 0.6945-40 enables the NZD/USD bears to aim for September 2020 tops surrounding 0.6800. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross the 0.7000 threshold for short-term life ahead of confronting the 200-day SMA level of 0.7042 for further ruling." | |
| "Silver under pressure on US dollar strength, eyes on Fed speakers",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/silver-under-pressure-on-us-dollar-strength-eyes-on-fed-speakers/,FX Street,2021-06-20T21:01:38+00:00,"XAG/USD will start of the week on the backfoot following a drop of around 0.50%, on Friday, ending at $25.7803 and moving between a low of $25.7560 and $26.4997. In a risk-off environment due to 7 of 18 FOMC members feeling that a first-rate hike could come in 2022, the greenback is in favour as the search for carry still sees strong demand at the long end of the curve which is weighing on precious metals. The moves in the shorter end of the US yield curve are a dollar positive and there will be several Federal Reserve speakers every day this week to potentially underpin the greenback. Markets will be on the lookout for any new language on tapering from the Fed speakers. Any views to coalesce around tapering actually starting in September as opposed to later on in the year will be adding fuel to the greenback’s fire and potentially push markets over the edge. Bears are pressuring weekly support at these lows and if the dollar continues its trajectory, a restest of the late March lows of $23.78 could be on the cards for the near future. However, if support holds, then a significant retracement could be on the cards back to test old lows." | |
| AUD/USD will open near the lowest levels of 2021 so far,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/aud-usd-will-open-near-the-lowest-levels-of-2021-so-far/,FX Street,2021-06-20T20:51:37+00:00,"AUD/USD will open this week on the backfoot following constant squeezing of dollar shorts in the wake of a more hawkish stance at the Federal Reserve. AUD/USD ended trade on Friday at 0.7478 and near to the lows of the day, week, month and year at 0.7476. The US yield curve is the catalyst that flattened further when St Louis Fed President Bullard, a potential prelude to this week’s series of the Federal speakers, reinforced the hawkish tilt of the June meeting. The yield on the US 10-year note fell 6.6bps to 1.438%, while the 2-year note lifted 4.5bps to 25.4bps. It was risk-off from the get-go and the S&P 500 closed lower by 1.3% and the Dow dropped1.6%, while earlier, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 1.8% and the FTSE 100 fell 1.9%. ”It is possible that the Fed did too good a job in recent months in persuading the markets that it was wedded to the view is that all inflationary pressures would be transitory and that it was committed to average inflation targeting,” analysts at Rabobank argue. ”Even though the inflation debate has been raging in the market all year, the disruption to asset prices sparked by the June 16 FOMC meeting is suggestive of how confident the market had been that the Fed would stick to its previous script. Instead Chair Powell this week warned that ‘inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect. ” Meanwhile, on Friday, St Louis Fed President Bullard was the first post-FOMC meeting speaker and was an important one for markets. Bullard was right to the point and said that he forecasts core PCE at 3.0% for the end of this year and 2.5% for the end of 2022, which he believes would justify a rate tightening cycle starting late next year. However, analysts at ANZ bank said that ”a simple linear calculation shows that core inflation needs to fall back to 0.2% m/m immediately and stay there for the next 18 months if inflation is to converge on the Fed’s 2.1% forecast for Q4 next year.” ”That looks unlikely at present given current economic momentum and supply and demand imbalances. So the risks clearly point to inflation staying elevated for longer, making the Fed’s target more difficult to achieve.” ”If inflation doesn’t come down in coming months, there is a real risk that when the Fed meets in September and updates its forecasts again, inflation forecasts for next year will be revised up and more members will pencil in rate rises for 2022. That would also suggest that tapering may have to be more rapid than the USD10bn per month from January the consensus expects and it could possibly start earlier.” Among other Fed speakers, Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks where traders will be on the lookout to see whether or not he will maintain the 2022 rate rise mantra. From here out, inflation data will be important but from a domestic front, the release of the Retail Sales will be a focus for the markets today. The price is testing an old area of the structure that could give out to the next layer before correcting to the current resistance. In this order, the next resistance would be a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the bearish impulse." | |
| Shiba Inu price stagnant unless it breaks this crucial resistance barrier,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/shiba-inu-price-stagnant-unless-it-breaks-this-crucial-resistance-barrier/,FX Street,2021-06-20T17:36:38+00:00,"Shiba Inu price has not provided a clear signal for the direction of its trend. Still, SHIB may present an opportunity to profit very soon. Shiba Inu posted massive gains in early May, rising by a whopping 2,093%. The meme-coin went from trading at a low of $0.0000018 and surged to a new all-time high of nearly $0.000040 on May 10. A wave of profit-taking hit SHIB after the peak, pushing its market value down by more than 86%. Although prices have stabilized after the sell-off, Shina Inu has entered a stagnation period. SHIB has been contained within a descending parallel channel since May 19. Each time Shiba Inu price has risen to the channel’s upper boundary since then, a rejection occurs that pushes it to the lower edge. From this point, it tends to rebound. If this price action repeats, the rebound from the middle support trendline might be significant enough to push Shiba Inu price to the channel’s upper boundary at $0.0000086 before it faces another rejection or finally breaks out. SHIB/USDt 6-hour chart While a rejection from the $0.0000086 resistance level could lead to a downswing to $0.0000065, a break of this supply barrier may result in massive gains. By drawing a parallel trendline equal to the channel’s width, the consolidation pattern forecasts a 42% upside target. If validated, Shiba Inu price might rise to $0.0000123 upon the $0.0000086 resistance level break." | |
| "MATIC price primed for prompt recovery, Polygon bulls target $2.40",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/matic-price-primed-for-prompt-recovery-polygon-bulls-target-2-40/,FX Street,2021-06-20T15:21:40+00:00,"MATIC price presents a buying opportunity at a crucial support level that could see it surge by over 15% over the next few days. After surging to a high of $1.71 on June 15, MATIC price took a 25% nosedive. The sudden sell-off saw Polygon drop to a low of $1.28 recently. Now, it seems like the rising trendline of a symmetrical triangle where MATIC price has been contained since May 18 could keep falling prices at bay. While this support area seems significant enough to hold, the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator flashed a buy signal on Polygon’s 12-hour chart. The bullish formation developed as a red nine candlestick, which is indicative of a one to four 12-hour candlesticks upswing. MATIC/USDt 12-hour chart A spike in buying pressure around the current price levels could see MATIC price rise toward the 100- or 50-twelve-hour moving average. These crucial areas of resistance sit at $1.45 and $1.60, respectively. If Polygon manages to break through the 50-twelve-hour moving average, the symmetrical triangle suggests that a new uptrend may start. Under such unique circumstances, MATIC price could surge by nearly 50% to the setup trendline at $2.38. Nonetheless, investors must pay close attention to the $1.28 support level. Failing to hold above this key area of support might lead to significant losses. MATIC price could fall to the $1.16 support level or even the 200-twelve-hour moving average at $0.93." | |
| Forex Today: Dollar strengthens further,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/forex-today-dollar-strengthens-further/,FX Street,2021-06-20T13:16:38+00:00,"What you need to know on Monday, June 21: The greenback kept rallying on Friday, posting its best weekly performance for this year. The advance was an extension of the post-Fed rally , as the US central bank catch investors off guard by bringing forward chances of rate hikes to 2023. Stocks fell in Europe and the US, weighing on high-yielding currencies. The dollar run despite US government bond yields continued to retreat from post-Fed highs. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed the week at 1.44%. The EUR/USD par settled at 1.1860, while GBP/USD trades around 1.3800, both at their lowest in two months. ECB’s President Christine Lagarde is set to speak this Monday and could refer to monetary policy. The European Central Bank is not expected to change its ultra-loose monetary policy. The sour tone of the UK currency was also backed by coronavirus-related concerns amid the exponential growth of new contagions related to the Delta variant, which may delay further easing lockdown measures. AUD/USD plunged to fresh 2021 lows. The sour tone of equities a nd falling gold prices weighed on the pair.The bright metal fell to 1,760.87 a troy ounce, its lowest in almost two months. USD/CAD settled at 1.2470, led by dollar’s demand and falling equities. Crude oil prices retreated modestly, with WTI ending the week at $71.00 a barrel. Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE eyes $0.1950 if key 100-DMA support caves in Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:" | |
| "Breaking: Bitcoin breaks below $34,000 while accurate indicator screams buy",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/20/breaking-bitcoin-breaks-below-34000-while-accurate-indicator-screams-buy/,FX Street,2021-06-20T10:46:41+00:00,This story is developing… | |
| "Cardano Price Forecast: ADA stalls four-day losing streak, but not out of the woods yet",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/cardano-price-forecast-ada-stalls-four-day-losing-streak-but-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/,FX Street,2021-06-19T15:51:39+00:00,"Cardano (ADA/USD) is snapping its four-day losing streak, attempting a minor recovery on Saturday amid a sluggish tone seen across the crypto market. Earlier this week, the fifth most widely traded crypto currency’s market capitalization of $49 billion surpassed that of the crypto exchange, Coinbase Global Inc., by $1.5 billion. Cardano is down about 3% over the week, having risen 750% from the start of the year amid increased demand from millionaire investors. As observed on Cardano’s daily chart, the price has bounced off key support, although struggles to find a strong foothold above the 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1.4242. If the bulls succeed to extend the recovery above the above level, a test of the falling trendline resistance at $1.5107 will be inevitable. A descending triangle breakout will get validated on a daily closing above the latter, opening doors towards the 21-DMA at $1.5908. The horizontal 50-DMA at $1.6277 will immediately challenge the road to recovery. ADA/USD: Daily chart On the other hand, a downside breakout from the triangle will be confirmed on a decisive breach of the horizontal trendline support at $1.3743. Sellers will then gear up for a test of the $1.30 mark, with further weakness likely to recall the May 24 low of $1.2555. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds the bearish zone, still keeping the sellers’ hopes alive and kicking." | |
| Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE eyes $0.1950 if key 100-DMA support caves in,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/dogecoin-price-prediction-doge-eyes-0-1950-if-key-100-dma-support-caves-in/,FX Street,2021-06-19T11:31:40+00:00,"Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) sellers refuse to give up, as the bearish momentum extended into the fifth consecutive day on Saturday. DOGE price is looking to break its 11-day range play to the downside, as the investor interest in the canine-inspired coin keeps diminishing. The sluggish price action could likely be associated with an absence of tweets from Elon Musk, Tesla Inc’s founder and an endorser of Dogecoin. In other news, Dogecoin, the meme-based coin, was chosen as the unit of account between SpaceX and GEC, giving Doge a claim on the first unit of space commerce, although, it is not the only space currency. Dogecoin’s daily-hour chart shows that the price remains confined within a narrow range, with the horizontal 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $0.3380 limiting the bulls. Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 100-DMA at $0.2687 guards the downside. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing south below the central line, currently at 40.07, the abovementioned key support appears at risk. A daily closing below that cap could fuel a sharp drop towards the May 19 flash crash low of $0.1950. Should the selling pressure intensify the ascending 200-DMA line of defense at $0.1475 could come to the rescue of the DOGE optimists. DOGE/USD: Daily chart On the flip side, acceptance above 21-DMA will open the gates towards the horizontal 50-DMA at $0.4020. The next bullish target is envisioned around $0.4600, June highs. To conclude, the downside appears more compelling for DOGE price amid bearish RSI and lower highs formed so far this Saturday." | |
| SafeMoon Price Prediction: SAFEMOON sees a dead cat bounce before the next downswing kicks in,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/safemoon-price-prediction-safemoon-sees-a-dead-cat-bounce-before-the-next-downswing-kicks-in/,FX Street,2021-06-19T04:26:41+00:00,"SAFEMOON price is fading the recovery momentum this Saturday after falling for four days in a row earlier this week. On June 15, SafeMoon exploded 15% after the bulls cheered the news of the project, which is involved in the Dogecoin and SpaceX partnership. However, a fresh selling wave knocked off the coin thereafter, as the SAFEMOON price failed to benefit from the announcement of its listing on the next generation KickEX exchange. The meme-based coin hit weekly lows at $0.000003554 before rebounding to near the $0.000003720 region. SAFEMOON has stalled its four-day losing streak but it’s not out of the woods yet, given that the bears have charted a rising channel breakdown on the four-hour chart on Friday. The price bounced from near the immediate support at the dashed horizontal trendline (white) at $0.000003509. However, with the channel breakdown in play combined with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning south below 50.00, the abovementioned support looks at risk. The next significant support is envisioned at $0.000003220, the dashed horizontal trendline (orange). SAFEMOON will remain poised for a fresh downswing towards 0.000002500 should the latter cave in. SAFEMOON/USD: Four-hour chart Alternatively, recapturing the critical 0.000003850 barrier is critical to staging any meaningful recovery. That level is the confluence of the channel support-turned-resistance, 100 and 50-simple moving averages (SMA). The bearish 21-SMA at $0.000003900 will then challenge the bullish commitments." | |
| "XRP Price Prediction: Ripple eyes deeper losses, as 200-DMA looks at risk",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/xrp-price-prediction-ripple-eyes-deeper-losses-as-200-dma-looks-at-risk/,FX Street,2021-06-19T02:41:39+00:00,"XRP price is licking its wounds so far this Saturday, having reached the lowest in three months at $0.7691 on Friday. Bulls are making recovery attempts across the crypto board, with the market sentiment seen improving slightly, in anticipation of the weekend love returning. Bitcoin has recaptured the $36,000 level after falling to just above $35,000 on Friday’s American afternoon. The no.7 most-traded digital asset is also following a similar price movement. However, the further upside attempts appear elusive, despite the long-dragged SEC V. RIPPLE lawsuit. The court denied the Securities Exchange Commission’s (SEC) request to search for records of Ripple’s General Counsel and Deputy General Counsel for being privileged communications. Wednesday’s Fed’s hawkish surprise is likely to have a lasting impact across the asset classes. The XRP price confirmed a downside breakout from a month-long symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart a day before, as the bears yielded a daily closing below the rising trendline support, then at $0.8487. A bearish break was inevitable, as the price has been forming lower highs on the said time frame. Further, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trade listlessly below the midline, backing the downbeat mood around Ripple. Therefore, a sustained break below Friday’s low at $0.7691 could expose the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $0.7277. The May 23 low of $0.6509 could be put to test on a daily closing below the critical 200-DMA support. XRP/USD: Daily chart On the upside, the road to recovery could be challenged by the triangle support now resistance at $0.8562. The buyers will then look to regain the $0.8600 round number, above which the triangle resistance at $0.8869. A convincing break above the last is likely to invalidate the symmetrical triangle breakdown." | |
| "Shiba Inu Price Analysis: SHIB retraces Coinbase rip, as crypto market selling intensifies",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/shiba-inu-price-analysis-shib-retraces-coinbase-rip-as-crypto-market-selling-intensifies/,FX Street,2021-06-19T00:06:39+00:00,"Shiba Inu price had been locked in a frustrating descending channel before the brief June 11 sweep below the May 19 low, effectively clearing the weak holders and pockets of anxiety. The initial rebound gained momentum on the Coinbase Pro listing news until two crucial resistance levels, articulated on the four-hour chart, halted the rally. Now, SHIB is trying to decide whether the rip was a new beginning or a one-hit-wonder. From the June 11 low to the June 15 high, Shiba Inu price successfully tested the May 19 low of $0.00000607, shattered a descending channel, overcame notable resistance at $0.00000770, briefly surpassed the apex of a multi-week symmetrical triangle at $0.00000888 and tagged the 200 four-hour SMA at $0.00000978. Furthermore, SHIB climbed approximately 80%, thereby shaking off skepticism dictated by the previous bearish price structure. Since the June 15 high, Shiba Inu price has declined almost 30%, leaving behind the symmetrical triangle apex and the important $0.00000770 level, before achieving support at the 50 four-hour SMA at $0.00000721. The pullback to the moving average has retraced the entire Coinbase rally, and it undermines a new bullish SHIB narrative. Still, it has confirmed the key resistance levels that may impede a complete turn from the price awkwardness that has reigned for the last month. The overbought condition signaled by the four-hour RSI has been released, improving the momentum conditions for a new, spirited rally higher. To start, Shiba Inu price needs a close above $0.00000770 and the intersection of the 200 four-hour SMA at $0.00000883 with the symmetrical triangle apex at $0.00000888. If successful, SHIB will be poised to test the June 2 high at $0.00001048, representing an 18% gain from the intersection. Additional resistance for Shiba Inu price includes the May 20 high at $0.00001214, delivering a 36% gain from the intersection mentioned above. SHIB/USD 4-hour chart If SHIB fails to hold the 50 four-hour SMA at $0.00000721 on a closing basis, it would deal a blow to the new rally attempt and raise the probabilities that Shiba Inu price will revisit the May 19 low. An improving on-chain metric for SHIB is the number of daily active addresses (DAA). Daily active addresses show the number of unique addresses involved in SHIB transactions daily. In addition, the metric indicates the daily level of crowd interaction or speculation with the digital asset. Higher readings indicate investor interest and the opposite with lower readings. The 7-day average of the metric triggered a double bottom on June 16, hinting at a renewed interest in SHIB after being in the doldrums for the last month. SHIB Daily Active Addresses (DAA) – Santiment SHIB investors were primed following the announcement that one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges would be listing the altcoin to trade. However, the instant euphoria has quickly faded, and now it is a struggle for Shiba Inu price to hold a key intra-day moving average. It demonstrates the weight of an unstable cryptocurrency market. Still, more importantly, it reflects the challenges of an experimental altcoin trying to make the turn higher after a significant decline and frustrating bottoming process." | |
| MATIC Price Prediction: Polygon success story hangs in the balance,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/19/matic-price-prediction-polygon-success-story-hangs-in-the-balance/,FX Street,2021-06-18T22:01:40+00:00,"MATIC price, once again, displayed relative strength with the June 15 breakout from a symmetrical triangle. Still, the bullish price action has quickly faded, pushing Polygon to a critical area of support. The digital asset needs the current price range to hold or risks breaking the longstanding trend line from the beginning of 2021. MATIC price jumped almost 60% from the June 12 low until the June 15 high, breaking with the indecisive tendencies of most altcoins. Volume increased during the brief streak higher, but it fell well short of the level that accompanied the rebound off the May 23 low, suggesting that Polygon speculators were still reluctant to engage the market with significant commitment. MATIC price has declined almost 30% from the June 15 high, overcoming support at the 50-day simple moving average at $1.42 before the current test of the confluence of the anchored volume-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) at $1.33, with the 2021 rising trend line and the symmetrical triangle’s lower trend line. For now, Polygon investors should wait for a daily close below the well-established support mentioned above to rethink their bullish narrative. If MATIC price closes below $1.25, it will be the initial signal that the altcoin may be readying for a new leg lower. A daily close below the June 12 low of $1.12 would be the necessary confirmation that a change in trend has occurred. If the bullish narrative endures this retracement, Polygon market operators should visualize resistance materializing at the intersection of the psychologically important $2.00 and the May 31 high of $2.04. An energized cryptocurrency market may carry MATIC price to the May 26 high of $2.48 and potentially, the all-time high of $2.89, recorded on May 19. It is important to note that the bullish alternative is not forecasting a relentless advance but a measured, frequently interrupted evolution. MATIC/USD daily chart A close below $1.12 changes everything for MATIC price. It would be a blow to the powerful uptrend since the beginning of 2021, forcing a complete reevaluation of the bullish governing narrative for the year. Supporting a favorable outlook for MATIC price is the Santiment Daily Active Addresses (DAA) metric that has recently turned higher. The metric shows the number of unique addresses involved in MATIC transactions daily. It indicates the daily level of crowd interaction or speculation with a token. Higher numbers tend to be bullish. Since June 9, the daily advance addresses have turned high, accelerating the uptrend in the 7-day average that bottomed on June 5. One caveat to the metric bullishness is the break of the rising trend line for the 7-day average since the end of April. It may be nothing but this is still a factor to watch if MATIC price gains price traction. MATIC Daily Active Addresses (DAA) – Santiment Another complementary on-chain metric is the Santiment Supply on Exchanges metric that shows the total amount of MATIC located in known exchange wallets. Spikes in this metric tend to indicate a spike in short-term selling pressure. Since the May high for the metric, the supply on the MATIC exchange has been declining and has crossed back below the 30-day average, suggesting the exhaustion of selling pressure in Polygon. It is an encouraging sign in a period of uncertainty and increased volatility in MATIC price. MATIC Supply on Exchanges – Santiment Polygon is receiving an increase in attention for its answer to some of the challenges confronted by the Ethereum blockchain, such as heavy fees, poor user experience and low transactions per minute. It is involved with the timeliest areas of cryptocurrencies, including DeFi, DApps, DAO’s and NFT’s. Despite the flattering on-chain metrics and compelling fundamental story, MATIC price is now hanging in the balance with few remaining technical support barriers between it and a completely different script." | |
| "XLM Price Forecast: Stellar accelerates decline, set to test $0.27",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/xlm-price-forecast-stellar-accelerates-decline-set-to-test-0-27/,FX Street,2021-06-18T18:56:40+00:00,"XLM price had been propped by the symmetrical triangle’s lower trend line and the 61.8% retracement level of the March 2020-2021 rally. However, the corrective bounce was limited, unaffected by the Bitcoin 30% rally. The result was a quick breakdown from the triangle and a double-digit decline, with Stellar now on the cusp of testing the May 23 low. XLM price correction in May was a wicked reminder of the risks inherent in cryptocurrency investing, as Stellar collapsed 65% into the May 23 low of $0.274. Not only did it remove pockets of anxiety and weak holders, but the decline erased a notable portion of the advance from the beginning of 2021. The price action following the correction took the form of a symmetrical triangle as Stellar oscillated in an increasingly tighter range with noticeably lower than average volume. The resounding breakdown from the triangle on June 16 removed any doubt about XLM price intentions and put bullish forecasts under pressure. The measured move of the symmetrical triangle is 50%. The resolution to the downside could motivate XLM price to plummet to $0.166, which is well below the 78.6% retracement of the March 2020-2021 advance at $0.191. It would be a significant blow to Stellar; a network originally envisioned to boost financial inclusion by reaching the world’s unbanked. Today’s trade below the June 12 low of $0.300 is the necessary confirmation of a new downtrend. It almost guarantees a sweep below the May 23 low of $0.274 and raises the odds that Stellar will resume the larger correction, but probably not to the measured move target of $0.166. XLM/USD daily chart For sure, XLM price did not avoid a bearish fate. Still, considering that the triangle resolution occurred close to the apex, the longevity and magnitude of the present leg lower may not be extended nor vastly exceed the May 23 low of $0.274. Nevertheless, it may be enough to generate an oversold reading on the daily RSI that would accelerate the construction of a sustainable XRP price low." | |
| "Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Political fundraising goes digital, as BTC drops 12%",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-political-fundraising-goes-digital-as-btc-drops-12/,FX Street,2021-06-18T17:16:39+00:00,"Bitcoin price has declined to the symmetrical triangle’s upper trend line after climbing 30% from the June 8 low, engaging the first support for the new rally attempt. Ethereum price failure at its symmetrical triangle support has raised the odds of a deeper decline moving forward. XRP price has not provided any directional clues, opting to remain range-bound. In an interesting twist on the cryptocurrency adoption story, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced on June 17 that it would begin accepting campaign contributions in cryptocurrency. The NRCC will begin accepting cryptocurrency contributions using Bitpay, a provider of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency payment services. The contributions will immediately be converted to USD before being deposited into the NRCC accounts. By not directly receiving the cryptocurrencies, the committee can accept donations of up to $10,000 a year, rather than just the $100 direct transfers of cryptocurrency approved by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in a 2014 ruling. In May, the FEC expressed their concerns about how cryptocurrencies may prevent the commission from following the flows into the US political system. By converting the cryptocurrencies to USD before taking possession of the contributions, the NRCC feels that it has facilitated the transparency requested by the FEC. As the first national party committee to accept cryptocurrency donations, the NRCC says it “is proud to lead the charge in accepting cryptocurrency campaign contributions.” The NRCC believes it is a creative attempt to leverage the relatively new technology to finance and better their odds of reclaiming the House in the midterm elections next year. We are focused on pursuing every avenue possible to further our mission of stopping Nancy Pelosi’s socialist agenda and retaking the House majority, and this innovative technology will help provide Republicans the resources we need to succeed. No doubt, Bitcoin price manufactured one of the better rallies in the first half of June, lifting the flagship cryptocurrency 33% and within 260 points of an intimidating range of resistance. The range is constructed by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $43,340, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May correction at $43,331, the 200-day SMA at $42,894 and the 38.2% retracement of the 2020-2021 advance at $41,581. A death cross will likely trigger this weekend, formally solidifying the formidable resistance. It is important to note that the last death cross signal in March 2020 did not lead to a decline, but a 35% decline followed the one in 2019. After striking the upside resistance, Bitcoin price has retraced 12% of the new rally and nears the symmetrical triangle’s upper trendline around $36,700. It was anticipated and represents the first test for the emerging rally. A close below the June 12 low of $34,635 will signal that Bitcoin price may continue retracing the rally to the triangle’s lower trend line around $31,509. The lower trend line is followed by the June 8 low of $31,004 and then by the May 19 correction low of $30,000. BTC/USD daily chart Only a daily close above the 50-day SMA at $43,340 would alter the neutral outlook for Bitcoin price. However, if it occurs, BTC investors can reorient their projections to the upside, with the all-time high of $64,899 being the focal point. Ethereum price had sketched an uneventful path, with a progressively narrow trading range. Still, the June 15 break of the symmetrical triangle’s lower trend line has immediately exposed ETH to a bearish outcome in the days or weeks ahead. Critical to preventing a larger decline is the merger of the June 12 low of $2,259 with the 50% retracement of the 2020-2021 advance at $2,237. A daily close below will introduce Ethereum price to a more significant decline, likely to the confluence of the 200-day SMA at $1,849 with the anchored volume-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) at $1,830, equating to an 18% decline from the current price. Speculators cannot overlook the potential for a sweep of the May 23 low of $1,728. ETH/USD daily chart It would take a daily close above the June 15 high of $2,640 to realistically entertain a sustainable thrust higher for Ethereum price. A close above the 50-day SMA at $2,919 would be welcome confirmation of a new, viable uptrend with ETH sights set on the all-time high of $4,384. A potential disruption for the bearish ETH outlook is the upcoming London hard fork update in July to address energy use and higher transaction fees. Excitement about the update may limit any further decline and place the foundation for Ethereum price to reengage with the earlier rally attempt. Nevertheless, despite trading down 50% from the May 12 high of $4,384, Ethereum price still is not attracting a solid bid. A reminder that ETH investors may need a considerably lower price to stimulate a new wave of commitment and emotion. XRP price has displayed a similar passiveness and lack of direction as many altcoins. Ripple was not inspired by the 30% rally in Bitcoin price, instead favoring to be range-bound between two imposing levels, the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $0.76 and the psychologically important $1.00. The range has not been accompanied by any signs of accumulation or distribution, raising the probability that XRP price many remain locked in the governing price range for the foreseeable future. With XRP price at an inflection point, it is imperative to consider both outcomes. On the long side, Ripple is clear of any obstacles until $1.00. A daily close above $1.00 would introduce new bullish opportunities and targets, including a rally to the confluence of the 38.2% retracement of the May correction at $1.14 with the declining 50-day SMA, also at $1.14. Ripple investors should consider timeliness and use pullbacks to the $0.76 price area to initiate positions. It is a precise risk level if the trade goes against them. XRP/USD daily chart A bearish view for XRP price is complemented by a minor head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline near $0.76, bolstering the inflection point’s importance. If the neckline and $0.76 melt away on a daily closing basis, Ripple investors can contemplate bearish outcomes for XRP price. However, it is critical to note that standing in front of a test of the May 23 low of $0.65 is the union of the anchored VWAP at $0.74 with the 200-day SMA at $0.72, suggesting that extreme bearish forecasts may be shortsighted. To close, the importance of the SEC case against Ripple should not be dismissed during the consideration of XRP price projections. As most spectators anticipate, the digital asset will not go public and will not be available for trading on many major cryptocurrency exchanges until there is a settlement. Both things are price negative while the case remains active." | |
| Sharp USD rally suggests sharp re-adjustment in positions has been taking place & | |
| Bank of England could signal a further slowdown in QE is likely over the next few months & | |
| USD upside risks should be contained to near-term & | |
| ECB: Expecting to end PEPP next March as scheduled,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/ecb-expecting-to-end-pepp-next-march-as-scheduled/,FX Street,2021-06-18T16:11:37+00:00,"In its Survey of Monetary Analysts published on Friday, the European Central Bank (ECB) noted that it is expecting to end the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) in March 2022 as originally planned. Moreover, the survey showed that the ECB does not currently see the need to ramp up purchases under a more standard Asset Purchase Programme to compensate for the loss of stimulus. The EUR/USD pair edged slightly higher from the multi-month low it set at 1.1848 earlier in the day and was last seen losing 0.22% at 1.1880." | |
| USD/MXN jumps to 20.75 as market sentiment deteriorates,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-mxn-jumps-to-20-75-as-market-sentiment-deteriorates/,FX Street,2021-06-18T16:06:36+00:00,"The Mexican peso remains under pressure against the US dollar. The USD/MXN jumped to 20.75, reaching the highest level since late March. The pair is hovering around 20.65, holding onto gains. The dollar is rising for the sixth consecutive day versus the Mexican peso amid a deterioration in market sentiment after the FOMC meeting. The peso is among the worst performers of the current week, together with the South African rand and the Turkish lira. The USD/MXN has risen more than 4% on the biggest weekly gain since September of last years. Next Thursday, the Bank of Mexico will announce its decision on monetary policy. No change in the key rate is expected (4%) but the usual hawkish bias will likely be reinforced after the recent spike in volatility across financial market, the depreciation of the Mexican peso, and global higher yields, in the context of higher inflation in Mexico. Despite the meeting, price action of emerging market currencies will likely be decided by the US dollar and the risk tone. The market has clearly made a shift in favor of broad-based strength of the greenback." | |
| US: NY Fed& | |
| USD/CAD advances beyond 1.2450 on unabated USD strength,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cad-advances-beyond-1-2450-on-unabated-usd-strength/,FX Street,2021-06-18T15:11:38+00:00,"The USD/CAD pair broke above 1.2400 on Friday and reached its strongest level since April 26 at 1.2453. As of writing, the pair was up 0.7% on the day at 1.2445. On a weekly basis, the pair is up nearly 300 pips and remains on track to post its largest weekly gain of the eyar. The unabated USD strength remains the main market theme ahead of the weekend. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers and high-tier macroeconomic data releases, the US Dollar Index preserved its bullish momentum on Friday. Additionally, the sharp drop witnessed in Wall Street’s main indexes allowed the USD to gather additional strength. Currently, the DXY is at its strongest level in more than two months at 92.35, rising 0.5% on a daily basis. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that the Fed’s June meeting represented a “somewhat hawkish” move. Bullard further noted that inflation was more intense than expected and said FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussions at the last meeting. Meanwhile, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up more than 1% at $71.85 on Friday but rising crude oil prices don’t seem to be helping the loonie limit its losses ahead of the weekend." | |
| AUD/USD hits fresh six months lows under 0.7500,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-hits-fresh-six-months-lows-under-0-7500/,FX Street,2021-06-18T14:51:37+00:00,"The AUD/USD dropped further during the American session, breaking under 0.7500 as the rally of the US dollar goes on. The pair bottomed at 0.7483, reaching the lowest level since December of last year. The pair is falling for the fourth consecutive day in a row, accumulating a decline of more than 200 pips. The slide accelerated after the FOMC meeting. The Fed signaling that it could raise rates sooner than previously expected, triggered a rally of the dollar and pushed metals to the downside. Commodity-linked currencies are also under pressure amid a deterioration in market sentiment. The Dow Jones is falling by 1.37% and the Nasdaq 0.45%. The aussie is having the biggest weekly decline versus the US dollar since September of last year. It broke a consolidation range and tumbled, negating the bullish bias. Analysts at Credit Suisse warn the weekly close around current levels would introduce a bearish view. “A weekly closing beak below the key band of support at the year to date lows at 0.7551/31 and the 200-day average would complete a large top to reverse us into a medium-term bearish view, with the next initial support seen at 0.7461, then the 23.6% retracement of the entire up move from 2020 at 0.7418.”" | |
| "Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD needs to hold onto $1,766 to recover – Confluence Detector",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gold-price-analysis-xau-usd-needs-to-hold-onto-1766-to-recover-confluence-detector/,FX Street,2021-06-18T14:21:37+00:00,"Where is the bottom? That is the question asked by those trading gold – and any other asset that is denominated in US dollars. The greenback’s rise has been relentless following the Federal Reservel’s hawkish decision on Wednesday. The world’s most powerful central bank is moving toward printing fewer dollars and raising rates sooner rather than later. The precious metal has an inverse correlation with America’s currency and it is sliding despite a retreat in bond yields. How is XAU/USD positioned on the technical charts? The Technical Confluences Detector is showing that gold has critical support at $ 1,766 , which is the convergence of the previous month’s low and the Bollinger Band one-hour lower. Further down, a soft cushion awaits at $ 1,751 , which is where the Pivot Point one-day Support 1 hits the price. Looking up, initial resistance is at $ 1,781 , which is the confluence of the Simple Moving Average 10-15m and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day. The next level to watch is $ 1,790 , which is where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and the previous 4h-low meet up. The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence" | |
| "US Dollar Index pushes higher to 92.30, fresh 2-month highs",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/us-dollar-index-pushes-higher-to-92-30-fresh-2-month-highs/,FX Street,2021-06-18T14:01:37+00:00,"The bid bias in the dollar stays everything but abated and now lifts the US Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2-month peaks near 92.30. The index extends the strong bounce well above the 92.00 yardstick on Friday, recording at the same time new tops in spite of the lack of direction in US yields. In fact, yields of the key US 10-year reference navigate a consolidative range around the 1.50% level. The dollar gathered extra steam after St Louis Fed J.Bullard somehow justified the recent hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. He also favoured ending the purchases of MBS while he hinted at the idea of a rate hike by end of 2022. The index moved just beyond the 92.00 level as investors continue to adjust to the recent hawkish message from the FOMC at its meeting on Wednesday. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone has anticipated and the view of higher rates in 2023 fuel the sharp bounce in the buck to levels last seen in mid-April. However, the still unchanged view on “transient” higher inflation and hence the continuation of the dovish stance by the Federal Reserve carries the potential to temper the current momentum in the dollar. A sustained break above the critical 200-day SMA should shift the dollar’s outlook to a more constructive one. Eminent issues on the back boiler : Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? Now, the index is gaining 0.37% at 92.23 and a breakout of 92.28 (monthly high Jun.18) would open the door to 92.46 (23.6% Fibo level of the 2020-2021 drop) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21). On the flip side, the next contention aligns at 89.53 (monthly low May 25) followed by 89.20 (2021 low Jan.6) and then 88.94 (monthly low March 2018)." | |
| EU& | |
| "S&P 500 Index opens deep in the negative territory below 4,200",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/sp-500-index-opens-deep-in-the-negative-territory-below-4200/,FX Street,2021-06-18T13:51:38+00:00,"Following Thursday’s indecisive movements, Wall Street’s main indexes opened with large losses on Friday. As of writing, the S&P 500 was down 0.75% on the day at 4,190, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was losing 1.1% at 33,450 and the Nasdaq Composite was falling 0.3% at 14,125. All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 trade in the negative territory after the opening bell with the Energy Index losing 1.75% as the worst performer. On the other hand, the defensive Real Estate Index is only down 0.08%. Unless the major equity indexes stage an unprecedented recovery in the remainder of the day, they will snap a three-week winning streak. Nasdaq (NDX NQ1 QQQ) breaks records as Fed threads a careful line, risk-reward still upside bound. Assessing Nasdaq’s technical outlook, “from the daily chart, we can see the strong ascending channel which has been holding the move nicely,” notes FXStreet stocks analyst Ivan Brian. “The break of 14,053 was the key to further gains and then Thursday’s record. Holding above this level keeps the short-term trend bullish with 13,462 and 12,950 the medium-term and longer-term pivots for bulls.”" | |
| GBP/USD dives to fresh multi-week lows amid sustained USD buying,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-usd-dives-to-fresh-multi-week-lows-amid-sustained-usd-buying/,FX Street,2021-06-18T13:36:40+00:00,"The USD buying picked up pace during the early North American session and dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh multi-week lows, around the 1.3845 region in the last hour. The pair extended this week’s post-FOMC bearish breakdown momentum and remained under some heavy selling pressure on the last trading day of the week. This marked the sixth consecutive session of downfall – also the eighth day of a negative move in the previous nine – and was sponsored by a combination of factors. Investors remain worried that the government’s decision to delay the final stage of easing lockdown measures to July 19 could hinder the nascent economic recovery. The concerns were further fueled by Friday’s weaker UK macro data, showing that the overall and core Retail sales declined 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in May. This comes on the back of concerns about the EU-UK collision over Norther Ireland protocol, which continued acting as a headwind for the British pound. Apart from this, the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar was seen as another factor that contributed to the GBP/USD pair’s downward trajectory. The greenback remained well supported by the Fed’s sudden hawkish turn and shot to over two-month tops. The already stronger buck got an additional boost after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking to CNBC, said that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at the last meeting. Meanwhile, a selloff in the global equity market further benefitted the greenback’s relative safe-haven status, which, to a larger extent, offset a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. This, along with a sustained break below 100-day SMA, further aggravated the intraday bearish pressure around the GBP/USD pair." | |
| "USD/JPY pares early losses on renewed USD strength, rises to 110.30 area",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-jpy-pares-early-losses-on-renewed-usd-strength-rises-to-110-30-area/,FX Street,2021-06-18T13:31:41+00:00,"After dropping below 110.00 earlier in the day, the USD/JPY pair regained its traction and was last seen rising 0.1% on a daily basis at 110.31. Despite the unabated USD strength, falling US Treasury bond yields forced USD/JPY to turn south on Thursday following Wednesday’s sharp upsurge. Nevertheless, with the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield staying flat on the day, the USD valuation became the primary driver of USD/JPY movements ahead of the weekend. Despite Thursday’s correction, USD/JPY looks to post weekly gains for the second straight week. While speaking to CNBC on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted that FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at this week’s meeting and acknowledged that the June meeting presented a “hawkish tilt.” Following these comments, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to its highest level in more than two months at 92.21. As of writing, the DXY was up 0.3% on the day at 92.17. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s main indexes remain on track to open deep in the negative territory, suggesting that the risk-averse market environment is likely to help the USD to continue to outperform its rivals in the American session." | |
| EUR/USD stays offered well below 1.1900,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-stays-offered-well-below-1-1900/,FX Street,2021-06-18T13:31:38+00:00,"The selling pressure around the European currency remains well in place and forces EUR/USD to give away extra ground to new 2-month lows in the 1.1870/65 band on Friday. The generalized selloff in the risk complex remains the name of the game following the hawkish shift from the Fed at its meeting earlier in the week. In fact, the pair is already down more than 2% since Wednesday’s price action, shedding nearly 3 cents to fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1870 area. The euro docket did not help the currency either, as minor publications were only on tap: German Producer Prices rose 1.5% MoM in May and 7.2% over the last twelve months. Additionally, the Current Account surplus in the broader bloc widened a tad to €31.4 billion in April. EUR/USD plummets to fresh levels below the 1.1900 mark on Friday, always in response to the strong improvement in the sentiment surrounding the greenback exclusively following the FOMC event on Wednesday. In the meantime, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Eminent issues on the back boiler : Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. So far, spot is losing 0.24% at 1.1876 and a breakdown of 1.1867 (monthly low Jun.18) would target 1.1835 (low Mar.9) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31). On the flip side, the next hurdle comes in at 1.1991 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.2035 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.2064 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally)." | |
| "Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hangs near multi-week lows, just above $1,775 level",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-hangs-near-multi-week-lows-just-above-1775-level/,FX Street,2021-06-18T13:06:36+00:00,"Update: Gold struggled to capitalize on its intraday positive move, instead met with some fresh supply in the vicinity of the $1,800 round-figure mark. The US dollar built on the post-FOMC rally and shot to over two-month tops. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that undermined demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold. It is worth recalling that the Fed took a sudden hawkish turn on Wednesday and brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes to 2023. The Fed also indicated that it will soon work on tapering down the current $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. This was seen as another factor weighing on the non-yielding gold. That said, a combination of factors might help limit any deeper losses for the XAU/USD, at least for the time being. Currently hovering around the $1,775 region, the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields might extend some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, a fresh leg down in the equity markets might further hold traders from placing any aggressive bearish bets around the safe-haven gold. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to end the week with heavy losses and remains vulnerable to slide further. Sustained weakness below the overnight swing lows, around the $1,768-67 region, will reaffirm the bearish bias and prompt some aggressive technical selling. The next relevant support is pegged near the $1,755 horizontal level before gold eventually drops to the $1,725-20 region. Previous update: Gold price is rebounding over 1% on the last day of this eventful week, although remains on track to book a 5% loss on the weekly basis. The retreat in the US Treasury yields is boding well for gold price, as it recoups a part of the Fed-led blow. Earlier this week, the Fed unexpectedly turned hawkish and signalled two rate hikes in 2023, which weighed negatively on non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, the US dollar index clings onto two-month highs heading into the weekly closing. Gold price is likely to remain influenced by the dynamics in the yields and the dollar and a light economic calendar. Broader market sentiment amid quadruple witching will also impact gold price. Read: Gold is bearish below 1790 zone The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is staging a decent comeback towards the $1797 resistance area, where the Fibonacci 61.8% converges with the SMA10 four-hour. Further up, the bulls will challenge the $1800 round number. The confluence of the pivot point one-month S1 and pivot point one-day R1 at $1811 will then emerge as a strong upside hurdle. Alternatively, a bunch of minor support levels offers immediate support around $1789, which is the intersection of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and the Bollinger Band one-hour Upper. The next relevant support is seen at $1781, the meeting point of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, SMA5 four-hour and SMA10 one-hour. The previous low on the four-hour at $1776 remains the last hope for the gold bulls. The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size." | |
| NZD/USD extends slide to fresh multi-month lows below 0.6950,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/nzd-usd-extends-slide-to-fresh-multi-month-lows-below-0-6950/,FX Street,2021-06-18T12:56:41+00:00,"The NZD/USD pair lost more than 100 pips in the previous two days and struggled to stage a convincing rebound on Friday. After breaking below 0.7000, the pair extended its slide and touched its weakest level since late March at 0.6949. As of writing, NZD/USD was down 0.53% on the day at 0.6960. The broad-based USD strength weighed heavily on NZD/USD in the second half of the week and the kiwi failed to capitalize on the stronger-than-expected GDP growth figure from New Zealand. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) preserving its bullish momentum ahead of the weekend, NZD/USD remains on the back foot. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard acknowledged that the FOMC’s June meeting represented a somewhat hawkish move. Bullard further noted that inflation is more intense than expected. Supported by these comments, the DXY advanced to its highest level in more than two months and was last seen gaining 0.26% at 92.13. There won’t be any data releases featured in the US economic docket on Friday and NZD/USD is unlikely to reverse its direction and remains on track to post its lowest weekly close of 2021." | |
| Australia: Unemployment drops to pre-pandemic levels & | |
| "USD/CAD refreshes multi-week tops, eyeing a move beyond 1.2400 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cad-refreshes-multi-week-tops-eyeing-a-move-beyond-1-2400-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T12:36:38+00:00,"The USD/CAD pair jumped to fresh seven-week tops during the early North American session, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 1.2400 mark. The pair built on this week’s post-FOMC strong positive move and edged higher for the fourth consecutive session on Friday. This also marked the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six and was sponsored by a combination of factors. The US dollar stood tall near two-month tops and remained well supported by the Fed’s sudden hawkish sift. The Fed brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes to 2023 at the end of June policy meeting on Wednesday. Bulls further took cues from a sharp decline in the equity markets, which tends to benefit the greenback’s relative safe-haven status. The combination of factors, to a larger extent, helped offset the ongoing downfall in the US Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, concerns that an earlier than expected Fed rate hike will impact the growth outlook and hurt fuel demand weighed on crude oil prices. This, in turn, undermined the commodity-linked loonie and provided an additional boost to the USD/CAD pair. With the latest leg up, the pair has now recovered nearly 400 pips from the vicinity of the key 1.2000 psychological mark, or multi-year lows touched earlier this month. Slightly overbought RSI on short-term charts might keep a lid on any further gains. That said, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the ongoing positive momentum. Hence, a subsequent move towards the next relevant hurdle, around the 1.2470 level, remains a distinct possibility." | |
| Fed& | |
| EUR/USD: Oversold conditions warrant caution before placing fresh shorts & | |
| Fed& | |
| WH Adviser Bernstein: Equally concerned about inflation as before,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/wh-adviser-bernstein-equally-concerned-about-inflation-as-before/,FX Street,2021-06-18T12:06:37+00:00,"In an interview with CNN on Friday, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein said that they are equally concerned about inflation as before. Bernstein further noted that he is still “very convinced” that inflation will turn out to be transitory. These remarks don’t seem to be having a noticeable impact on the greenback’s performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was posting small daily gains at 91.93. Meanwhile, S&P Futures are down 0.4% on the day at 4,210." | |
| "AUD/USD looks to be in a rough shape, bearish below 200-DMA at 0.7555 – TDS",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-looks-to-be-in-a-rough-shape-bearish-below-200-dma-at-0-7555-tds/,FX Street,2021-06-18T12:01:37+00:00,"This week’s volatility has done some damage to the market’s technical landscape, with AUD/USD looking vulnerable to further declines unless it manages to close the week above its 200-day moving average at 0.7555, economists at TD Securities brief. “The AUD/USD pair took a quick look below key support at the early-April range low (0.7532), the first real candidate for a ‘lower low’ we’ve had since. Today’s weekly closing level could be instrumental for how market psychology develops in the AUD “” and perhaps beyond.” “We won’t say that all would be forgiven on finish back above 0.7532, but we do think it could reduce some near-term bearishness.” “More significant, we think, would be a climb back above the 200-DMA (0.7555).”" | |
| "USD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles for direction, flat-lined above 110.00 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-jpy-price-analysis-struggles-for-direction-flat-lined-above-110-00-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:56:40+00:00,"The USD/JPY pair lacked any firm directional bias on the last trading day of the week and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session. The pair extended the previous day’s retracement slide from the 110.80 region, or the highest level since early April and witnessed some intraday selling on the last trading day of the week. A generally weaker tone around the equity markets provided a modest lift to the safe-haven Japanese yen and exerted some pressure on the major. Bearish traders further took cues from a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the Fed’s sudden hawkish shift – signalling that it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than anticipated previously – acted as a tailwind for the US dollar. This, in turn, helped limit any meaningful pullback for the USD/JPY pair. Looking at the technical picture, the USD/JPY pair has been trending higher along an upward sloping channel over the past two months or so. This points to a well-established short-term bullish trend and supports prospects for additional gains. Moreover, bullish resilience below the key 110.00 psychological mark adds credence to the positive outlook The constructive set-up is further reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the bullish territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. Hence, any meaningful dips might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited amid absent relevant market moving economic releases. From current levels, the pre-Fed lows, around the 109.80 area is likely to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by ascending trend-line support, around mid-109.00s and 50-day SMA, near the 109.15 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support level, leading to a subsequent slide below the 109.00 mark will negate the bullish bias. The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the slide further towards intermediate support near the 108.55 region. Bearish traders might eventually drag the pair further towards the 108.00 mark en-route the next relevant support near the 107.85-80 zone. On the flip side, immediate strong resistance is pegged near the 110.70-75 region ahead of YTD tops, just ahead of the 111.00 mark. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of the recent appreciating move and push the USD/JPY pair further towards March 2020 swing highs, around the 111.70 region." | |
| UK PM Johnson: Confident will be able to ease restrictions on July 19,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/uk-pm-johnson-confident-will-be-able-to-ease-restrictions-on-july-19/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:46:38+00:00,"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that he is very confident that they will be able to further ease coronavirus restrictions on July 19, as reported by Reuters. “I have complete confidence in health minister Hancock.” “Very confident we will be able to ease restrictions on July 19.” “July 19 is a terminus date.” “Data continues to indicate we will be able to proceed on July 19.” These comments don’t seem to be helping the market sentiment improve. As of writing, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index was down 1.15% on the day at 7,070." | |
| "Nasdaq (NDX NQ1 QQQ) breaks records as Fed threads a careful line, risk reward still upside bound",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/nasdaq-ndx-nq1-qqq-breaks-records-as-fed-threads-a-careful-line-risk-reward-still-upside-bound/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:26:38+00:00,"The relief rally continued on Thursday for the Nasdaq as the index outperformed all others and set a new record high on the day. The Fed has calmed investor fears over runaway inflation by bringing forward its rate hike predictions to 2023. Not only has this calmed investors but the 10-year yield remained barely unmoved despite talk of tapering and rate hikes in 2023. Big tech stocks made some strong moves on Thursday with Apple (AAPL) finally breaking out and Facebook (FB) closing near the high of the day and just below its record high. Taking a close look at recent price action using the 30-minute chart for the Nasdaq futures (NQ1) shows just how much volume printed toward the high of Thursday’s session. The point of control was at the near high of the day. From the daily chart we can see hte strong upchannel which has been holding the move nicely. The break of 14,053 was the key to further gains and then Thursdays record. Holding above this level keeps the short term trend bullish with 13,462 and 12,950 the medium term and longer term pivots for bulls. In terms of metric bulls continue to have the upper hand. Across the Nasdaq 49 stocks made new 52 week highs as against 28 making new 52 week lows while 74% pf Nasdaq stocks are trading above their 100-day moving average. The risk-reward is to the upside, trading above the 9-day moving average, strong upchannel, intraday point of control (max volume price) near the high of the day." | |
| Italy& | |
| AUD/USD: Weekly close below year lows at 0.7531 to introduce a bearish bias & | |
| ECB extends leverage ratio relief for banks until March 2022,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/ecb-extends-leverage-ratio-relief-for-banks-until-march-2022/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:06:40+00:00,"The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Friday that it has extended the leverage ratio relief for banks until March of 2022, as reported by Reuters. “The ECB’s Governing Council confirms that exceptional circumstances continue to justify the leverage ratio relief,” the statement further read. These comments don’t seem to be having a noticeable impact on the shared currency’s performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.06% on a daily basis at 1.1913. Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index was down 0.5% at 4,138." | |
| EUR/USD Price Analysis: Extra weakness targets 1.1835,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-price-analysis-extra-weakness-targets-1-1835/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:06:37+00:00,"EUR/US’s deep pullback met some contention just below 1.1900 the figure so far on Friday, clinching new 2-month lows. The loss of the 200-day SMA (1.1991) does not bode well for spot and allows for the continuation of the leg lower. A deeper move could retest the March 9 low at 1.1835 ahead of the YTD lows in the 1.1700 neighbourhood (March 31). On the broader view, the outlook for EUR/USD is forecast to remain on the negative side while below the 200-day SMA, today at 1.1991." | |
| US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Above 92.00 targets the 92.50 region,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/us-dollar-index-price-analysis-above-92-00-targets-the-92-50-region/,FX Street,2021-06-18T11:01:38+00:00,"DXY advances above the 92.00 mark for the first time since April on Friday. The improved sentiment in the dollar could now push the index to the next minor target at a Fibo level near 92.50. Further north, there are no relevant hurdles until the 2021 highs in the mid-93.00s recorded on March 31. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, a sustainable breakout of the 200-day SMA, today at 91.51, should shift the outlook for the buck to positive." | |
| Japan& | |
| New Zealand: GDP surprised to the upside in Q1 & | |
| "AUD/USD rebounds modestly from 2021 lows, stays calm around 0.7550",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-rebounds-modestly-from-2021-lows-stays-calm-around-0-7550/,FX Street,2021-06-18T10:51:37+00:00,"The AUD/USD pair came under strong bearish pressure in the second half of the week and suffered heavy losses on Wednesday and Thursday despite the upbeat Australian jobs report. During the Asian trading hours on Friday, the pair extended its slide and touched its lowest level of 2021 at 0.7511 before staging a rebound. As of writing, the pair was down 0.1% on the day at 0.7543. In the absence of fundamental drivers, the pair’s recent rebound seems to be a technical correction of the latest decline. On a weekly basis, AUD/USD remains on track to lose more than 2%. The broad-based USD strength on the back of the hawkish shift witnessed in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections continues to dominate the markets ahead of the weekend. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, touched its highest level in more than two months at 92.07 earlier in the day but seems to have gone into a consolidation phase. Currently, the DXY is flat at 91.90. There won’t be any high-tier macroeconomic data releases featured in the US economic docket on Friday and AUD/USD is likely to continue to fluctuate in a tight range around 2021 lows." | |
| EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Decent support emerged around 131.00/130.80,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-jpy-price-analysis-decent-support-emerged-around-131-00-130-80/,FX Street,2021-06-18T10:46:38+00:00,"EUR/JPY so far manages to regain some composure and rebounds from earlier multi-week lows in the 130.80 region. The continuation of the downside is seen re-visiting the minor support at the 100-day SMA around 130.40 ahead of the psychological barrier at 130.00. Further south, albeit not favoured for the time being, comes in the April lows in the 129.60 zone. In the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 127.58 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive." | |
| "USD/CAD marks an important trend change, potential to surge as high as 1.2639/53 – Credit Suisse",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cad-marks-an-important-trend-change-potential-to-surge-as-high-as-1-2639-53-credit-suisse/,FX Street,2021-06-18T10:36:37+00:00,"USD/CAD has closed clearly above the 55-day average at 1.2265, which hadn’t been sustainably breached previously this year. As the Credit Suisse analyst team notes, this signals a 1-2 month trend change, particularly given that daily MACD has also turned bullish. “USD/CAD has surged higher again, breaking above 1.2203/05 as well as above 1.2264, which includes the important 55-day average, the 38.2% retracement of the fall from April and the ‘measured base objective’. The 55-day average has essentially capped the market all year and so the sustained move above here marks an important change of trend for the next 1-2 months, reinforced by the cross higher in daily MACD.” “Next resistance is seen at 1.2405/19, then 1.2500/14, with the potential for a move back to the major cluster of resistances at 1.2639/53, which is a major medium to long-term inflection point.” “Near-term support moves to 1.2264/61, which now ideally holds to keep the risks directly higher. A quick close below here would suggest the market is moving into a choppy broad range, with next resistance at the recent breakout point at 1.2156/45.”" | |
| Germany& | |
| "Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD clings to strong recovery gains, bearish bias intact",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/silver-price-analysis-xag-usd-clings-to-strong-recovery-gains-bearish-bias-intact/,FX Street,2021-06-18T10:21:37+00:00,"Silver built on its steady intraday ascending and refreshed daily tops, around mid-$26.00s in the last hour, recovered a part of the overnight slump to the lowest level since late April. The XAG/USD stalled its recent decline from the $28.25-30 supply zone and found a decent support near the $25.75 region, just ahead of the very important 200-day SMA. The mentioned area coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the $23.78-$28.75 move up and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Meanwhile, the XAG/USD, for now, seems to have snapped five consecutive days of the losing streak. A sustained move back above the 50% Fibo. level supports prospects for additional intraday gains. That said, any meaningful upside still seems elusive in the wake of the overnight break below a one-month-old trading range. Technical indicators on the daily chart – though have managed to rebound from lower levels – are still holding deep in the bearish territory. Hence, any further move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the $26.75 trading range support breakpoint. However, it will still be prudent to wait for sustained weakness below the $25.75-70 confluence support before positioning for any further depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable and accelerate the fall towards the key 25.00 psychological mark before eventually dropping to the $24.80 support." | |
| WTI consolidates Thursday& | |
| UK: Inflation overshoots the BoE& | |
| "GBP/JPY rebounds from multi-week lows, moves back above 154.00",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-jpy-rebounds-from-multi-week-lows-moves-back-above-154-00/,FX Street,2021-06-18T09:36:38+00:00,"The GBP/JPY cross recovered a major part of its early lost ground to five-week lows and was last seen trading with only modest losses, around the 153.20-25 region. The cross added to the previous day’s heavy losses and witnessed some follow-through selling on the last trading day of the week. This marked the fourth consecutive day of a negative move and was sponsored by a combination of factors. Investors remain worried that the government’s decision to delay the final stage of easing lockdown measures to July 19 could hinder the nascent economic recovery. The concerns were further fueled by Friday’s weaker UK Retail Sales figures. In fact, the headline Retail sales dropped 1.4% in May, while core sales (stripping the auto motor fuel) declined by 2.1%. This, along with concerns about the EU-UK collision over Norther Ireland protocol, acted as a headwind for the sterling. Apart from this, a modest pickup in demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen exerted some additional pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. That said, oversold conditions on short-term charts helped limit the downside, rather prompted some intraday short-covering move. The GBP/JPY cross has now recovered around 75 pips from the daily swing low level of 152.45, though any meaningful positive move still seems elusive. Investors might refrain from placing aggressive bets as the focus now shifts to the BoE meeting next week. Even from a technical perspective, the overnight break below the 154.20-154.00 strong horizontal support favours bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the recent corrective fall has run its course." | |
| "GBP/USD to further weakness to 1.3802/01, potentially as far as 1.3669/48 – Credit Suisse",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-usd-to-further-weakness-to-1-3802-01-potentially-as-far-as-1-3669-48-credit-suisse/,FX Street,2021-06-18T09:26:37+00:00,"GBP/USD is struggling to hold onto 1.39. According to the Credit Suisse analyst team, cable should see weakness extend further, with next support seen at 1.3802/01. “We continue to look for a more significant turn lower within the broader range from late February. Support is seen next at 1.3878/59 – the 23.6% retracement of the rally from last September – which we look to hold at first. Below in due course though should see support next at the May lows at 1.3802/01.” “Whilst we would look for the 1.3802/01 level to hold at first, below in due course can see weakness extend further to 1.3717, potentially even the more important April low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from last September at 1.3669/48.” “Resistance moves to 1.3971 initially, with 1.4000/10 ideally capping. Above can ease the immediate downside bias for a recovery back to 1.4034, potentially into the 1.4075/99 zone, but with this expected to cap.”" | |
| FOMC: Tapering could start by year-end & | |
| Turkey: CBRT says current tight monetary policy stance will be maintained,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/turkey-cbrt-says-current-tight-monetary-policy-stance-will-be-maintained/,FX Street,2021-06-18T09:01:40+00:00,"“Current tight monetary policy stance will be maintained decisively until the significant fall in the April inflation report’s forecast path is achieved,” the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) said in a statement on Friday. “Rate continues to be determined at a level above inflation to maintain a strong disinflationary effect.” “Use decisively all available instruments.” ‘Repeats decelerating impact of the monetary tightening on credit and domestic demand has begun to be observed.” Separately, Turkish Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan said that the government will not give up on our inflation target for short-term gains. “Decisive stance and policies will help bring down inflation expectations,” he added. Read: Turkey: CBRT leaves policy rate unchanged at 19% as expected" | |
| "USD/CHF consolidates near two-month tops, bulls await a move beyond 0.9200",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-chf-consolidates-near-two-month-tops-bulls-await-a-move-beyond-0-9200/,FX Street,2021-06-18T08:56:40+00:00,"The USD/CHF pair held steady near two-month tops through the first half of the European session, with bulls now awaiting a sustained move beyond the 0.9200 mark. The pair edged higher for the third consecutive session on Friday and seems all set to build on this week’s strong positive momentum, triggered by the Fed’s sudden hawkish turn. It is worth recalling that the Fed stunned investors on Wednesday and brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against March’s projection for no increase until 2024. This, in turn, continued acting as a tailwind for the US dollar and provided a modest lift to the USD/CHF pair. That said, sliding US Treasury bond yields held the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and capped gains. On the other hand, the prevalent cautious mood around the equity markets extended some support to the safe-haven Swiss franc. This, along with slightly overbought conditions on short-term charts, might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/CHF pair. This, in turn, warrants some consolidation before the next leg up. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US. Hence, the US bond yields might play a key role in influencing the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair. Traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities on the last day of the week." | |
| China& | |
| EUR/JPY to sustain a significant decline towards 129.59/36 & | |
| Germany: Who will lead the next government? Four scenarios and its markets implications & | |
| BOE/TNS Survey: Long-term inflation expectations fall to 2.7%,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/boe-tns-survey-long-term-inflation-expectations-fall-to-2-7/,FX Street,2021-06-18T08:41:38+00:00,"The results of the latest Bank of England (BOE)/ TNS Inflation Attitudes Survey were out last minutes, with the key findings found below. UK public inflation expectations for the year ahead 2.4% in May vs 2.7% in Feb. UK public longer-term inflation expectations fall to 2.7% vs 2.9%. This quarterly survey, conducted by TNS on our behalf, assesses public attitudes to inflation, opinions about the Bank and awareness of our work." | |
| NZD/USD to suffer further weakness in the next few weeks & | |
| "EUR/USD to see weakness extend to 1.1825, then 1.1758 – Credit Suisse",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-to-see-weakness-extend-to-1-1825-then-1-1758-credit-suisse/,FX Street,2021-06-18T08:31:37+00:00,"The dramatic sell-off for EUR/USD continues post the FOMC as the market accelerates further following its conclusive break of its key 200-day average at 1.1996. The pair is set to see further weakness to support next at 1.1825/23, then the lower end of the converging range of the year, now at 1.175, as reported by Credit Suisse. “Assuming we do not see a close back above the 200-DMA at 1.1196 today, which we do not look for, we look for further weakness within the broader range that has been in place all year. Indeed, support from the 61.8% retracement of the rally from late March has already been removed and we look for further weakness to 1.1867/60 next, then the 78.6% retracement at 1.1823. Whilst we would also look for this to hold at first, below can see weakness extend to potential trend support from the lower end of the converging range, now at 1.1758.” “With major price and retracement support not far below at 1.1717/1.1695, we look for a fresh floor here.” “Resistance moves to 1.1952 initially, then the 200-day average at 1.1996. Above 1.2007 remains needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back towards 1.2074, but with fresh sellers now expected ahead of here.”" | |
| Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD targets $1797 on the road to recovery & | |
| "GBP/USD hangs near multi-week lows, below 1.3900 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-usd-hangs-near-multi-week-lows-below-1-3900-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T08:21:38+00:00,"The GBP/USD pair dropped to fresh multi-week lows, around mid-1.3800s during the early European session, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.3885 region, down nearly 0.25% for the day. The pair extended its recent sharp pullback from the 1.4200 mark and witnessed some follow-through selling for the sixth consecutive session on Friday. The downtick was sponsored by the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, which remained well supported by the Fed’s sudden hawkish turn. On the other hand, disappointing UK Retail Sales data weighed on the British pound and exerted some additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed stunned investors on Wednesday and brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against March’s projection for no increase until 2024. This helped offset the overnight sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and mostly disappointing US macro data – Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The intraday selling picked up pace after data released from the UK showed that monthly Retail Sales unexpectedly dropped 1.4% in May. Stripping the auto motor fuel, the Core Retail Sales also fell short of market estimates and declined by 2.1% during the reported month. This, along with the UK government’s decision to push back the timeline for the final stage of easing lockdown measures to July 19, added to worries about the UK economic recovery. Apart from this, concerns about the EU-UK collision over Norther Ireland protocol further acted as a headwind for the sterling and contributed to the GBP/USD pair’s decline. In the latest Brexit-related developments, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday that they will have to take steps to make sure the post-Brexit trade between Britain and NI is uninterrupted. That said, oversold conditions on intraday charts helped limit any further losses. There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped as the market focus now shifts to the Bank of England monetary policy meeting next week." | |
| EUR/USD clings to gains just above 1.1900,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-clings-to-gains-just-above-1-1900/,FX Street,2021-06-18T08:11:37+00:00,"The single currency remains under pressure despite the recovery attempt on Friday, with EUR/USD hovering around the 1.1900 neighbourhood following the opening bell in Euroland. EUR/USD appears to have met some decent contention in the 1.1880 region so far and looks to reverse a nearly 2% drop since the FOMC delivered an unexpected hawkish message at its event late on Wednesday. Indeed, the pair found some buying interest around the Fibo level (of the November-January rally) near 1.1885 earlier in the session. The rebound is so far accompanied by a better tone in German 10-year yields, which re-visit the -0.20% on Friday. In the domestic calendar, German Producer Prices rose 1.5% MoM in May and 7.2% from a year earlier. additional data in the broader Euroland saw the Current Account surplus widening a tad to €31,4 billion (from €30,0 billion). There are no data releases scheduled across the pond. EUR/USD plummets to fresh levels below the 1.1900 mark on Friday, always in response to the strong improvement in the sentiment surrounding the greenback exclusively following the FOMC event on Wednesday. In the meantime, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Eminent issues on the back boiler : Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. So far, spot is gaining 0.10% at 1.1916 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1991 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.2035 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.2064 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1885 (monthly low Jun.18) would target 1.1835 (low Mar.9) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31)." | |
| USD/CNH now targets the 6.4660 level & | |
| US Dollar Index climbs to fresh 2-month tops around 92.00,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/us-dollar-index-climbs-to-fresh-2-month-tops-around-92-00/,FX Street,2021-06-18T07:46:38+00:00,"The greenback accelerates the upside and lifts the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh 2-month peaks beyond the 92.00 yardstick. The index advances on a firm footing and posts gains for the fourth consecutive session at the end of the week, extending at the same time the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA, today at 91.51. The change of heart around the dollar came after the Fed signalled intentions to hike rates at some point in late 2023 and that the tapering of the QE programme has been brought forward. The strong rebound in DXY came in stark contrast to the steady performance of US yields, with the 10-year benchmark extending the consolidative mood around the 1.50% zone so far. Nothing scheduled data wise in the US calendar, exposing the dollar’s price action to the broad risk appetite trends. The index moved just beyond the 92.00 level as investors continue to adjust to the recent hawkish message from the FOMC at its meeting on Wednesday. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone has anticipated and the view of higher rates in 2023 fuel the sharp bounce in the buck to levels last seen in mid-April. However, the still unchanged view on “transient” higher inflation and hence the continuation of the dovish stance by the Federal Reserve carries the potential to temper the current momentum in the dollar. A sustained break above the critical 200-day SMA should shift the dollar’s outlook to a more constructive one. Eminent issues on the back boiler : Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? Now, the index is gaining 0.06% at 91.94 and a breakout of 92.07 (monthly high Jun.18) would open the door to 92.46 (23.6% Fibo level of the 2020-2021 drop) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21). On the flip side, the next contention aligns at 89.53 (monthly low May 25) followed by 89.20 (2021 low Jan.6) and then 88.94 (monthly low March 2018)." | |
| "NZD/USD off lows, still in the red below 0.7000 mark",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/nzd-usd-off-lows-still-in-the-red-below-0-7000-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T07:36:38+00:00,"The NZD/USD pair maintained its offered through the early European session and was last seen hovering around the 0.6975-70 region, or the lowest level since early April. The pair prolonged its recent bearish trajectory and continued losing ground for the fourth straight session on Friday. This also marked the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six and sponsored by the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. In fact, the key USD Index shot to more than two-month tops and remained well supported by the Fed’s sudden hawkish turn. It is worth recalling that the Fed stunned investors on Wednesday and brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against March’s projection for no increase until 2024. This, to a larger extent, helped offset the overnight sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and mostly disappointing US macro data. Apart from this, Friday’s downfall could further be attributed to some technical selling below the very important 200-day SMA. A subsequent breakthrough the key 0.7000 psychological mark might have already set the stage for an extension of the ongoing depreciating move. That said, extremely oversold conditions on intraday charts warrant some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for a further decline amid absent relevant market moving economic releases." | |
| "AUD/USD set new yearly lows, potential to dive to the December trough at 0.7463 – Commerzbank",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-set-new-yearly-lows-potential-to-dive-to-the-december-trough-at-0-7463-commerzbank/,FX Street,2021-06-18T07:11:38+00:00,"The US Dollar continues to surge higher across the board. AUD/USD stands out with a drop toward 0.75, changing hands at the lowest since December. The aussie could fall to the 0.7493 mark, according to Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank. “AUD/USD tumbled to between the 200-day moving average at 0.7552 and the 0.7533 April low. If this minor support area were to be slid through, the late December low at 0.7463 would be next in line. “Initial resistance above the 0.7646 early June low lies at the 0.7675/91 April 22 to May lows as well as along the 55-day moving average at 0.7725.”" | |
| EUR/USD: Three reasons for an upward correction after the Fed-fueled downfall,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-three-reasons-for-an-upward-correction-after-the-fed-fueled-downfall/,FX Street,2021-06-18T07:06:38+00:00,"The shift in the Fed’s approach is undoubtedly significant and justified a large move in the dollar. EUR/USD is already more than 200 pips below pre-decision levels. However, it is time for a correction, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam. “In the past few months, the dollar’s moves have been correlated with returns on US Treasury yields. In response to the Fed, 10-year bond yields leaped by some 10 basis points to 1.59%, maintaining that correlation. However, they have been drifting lower since then, standing at below 1.51% at the time of writing. The dollar is set to catch up with the bond market.” “Forex trading is 24/5, not 24/7. Investors will likely take dollar profits and clear positions ahead of the weekend. After such a sharp move – atypical for euro/dollar in recent months – there is room for an upswing. Moreover, markets may begin looking ahead and remember that the Fed is not the only game in town. Europe’s rapid vaccination rate is a plus for the common currency.” “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well below 30 – deep in oversold territory. That can last for some time, but not forever. After spending a day in the red, there is room for recovery.” “Support awaits at 1.1891, which was the bottom on Thursday and the lowest since mid-April. Further down, 1.1860 provided support back then. Resistance is at 1.1925, Friday’s high so far, followed by 1.1950, a cushion from April. The next caps are 1.1980 and 1.2010.”" | |
| GBP/USD to extend its decline towards support at 1.3801/1.3761 & | |
| US: Strong growth and accommodative monetary policy to supports equities & | |
| USD/JPY trades with modest losses around 110.00 mark,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-jpy-trades-with-modest-losses-around-110-00-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:51:38+00:00,"The USD/JPY pair refreshed daily lows heading into the European session, with bears now looking to extend the corrective pullback further below the key 110.00 psychological mark. The pair struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 110.30-35 region and turned lower for the second consecutive session on Friday. The downtick dragged the USD/JPY pair further away from the highest level since early April, around the 110.80 region touched in the aftermath of the Fed’s sudden hawkish shift. Traders seemed rather unaffected by the latest monetary policy update by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). As was widely anticipated, the BoJ kept its benchmark policy rate on hold at -0.10% and maintained its pledged to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. The only point of interest was an extension of the pandemic-relief program by six months to March 2022. Meanwhile, the pullback lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and is more likely to remain limited amid the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. The Fed on Wednesday brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback and lend some support to the USD/JPY pair. Even from a technical perspective, the post-FOMC upswing confirmed a near-term bullish breakout through a symmetrical triangle. Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity. That said, a cautious mood and softer US Treasury bond yields might hold bullish traders from placing any aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair." | |
| "USD/CHF turns bullish, eyeing the 0.9199/0.9214 zone – Commerzbank",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-chf-turns-bullish-eyeing-the-0-9199-0-9214-zone-commerzbank/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:46:40+00:00,"The US dollar continues to surge higher across the board. The USD/CHF pair has rallied to the 0.9181 late April high above which is the 0.9199/0.9214 region, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. “USD/CHF so far rapidly shot all the way up to the 0.9181 late April high around which it pauses. If yesterday’s high at 0.9188 were to be exceeded, the 50% retracement of the recent decline and mid-March low at 0.9199/0.9214 would be eyed next. Further up the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can be found at 0.9264 and the March 12 high at 0.9325.” “Slips should find support between the 55 and 200-day moving averages at 0.9085/70 and at the 0.9054/46 late May and early June highs as well as the early February high.” “In view of the last couple of days’ strong ascent, we switched our forecast to a bullish one.”" | |
| EUR/USD: Fall below key support at 1.1907/1.1877 to expose the 1.1836/24 zone & | |
| BOJ& | |
| Natural gas runs hot relative to the fundamentals & | |
| NZD/USD: Fed-fueled dollar to offer selling opportunities & | |
| Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD& | |
| USD/CAD refreshes daily highs near 1.2385 amid stronger USD,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cad-refreshes-daily-highs-near-1-2385-amid-stronger-usd/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:21:38+00:00,"USD/CAD continues to push higher in the early European trading hours. The pair posted gains for the third straight session. This is the lowest level for the loonie since April. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2375, up 0.11% for the day. The higher US treasury yields lift the demand for the greenback, which reads near the 92.00 mark. The sudden twist in the US Fed interest rate outlook on Wednesday kept the market on the edge. The central bank hinted at two rate hikes by the end of 2023. The higher interest rate negatively affects the bond prices, and hence, higher treasury yields. The upbeat economic outlook bolstered by the ultra accommodative monetary policy and the government stimulus keeps investors invested in the greenback. On the other hand, the Canadian central bank was the first among advanced economies to talk about the slowing pace of government bond purchases. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada official previously said that the Canadian economy is recovering as expected over a strong rebound in summer’s demand and well planned vaccine rollout. The falling commodity prices affect the loonie negatively as the economy depends largely on the export of oil & gas. On the economic docket, traders await for Canada’s New Housing Price Index to take fresh trading impetus." | |
| AUD/USD Price Analysis: Eyes 0.7475 as sell-off extends below 200-DMA,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-price-analysis-eyes-0-7475-as-sell-off-extends-below-200-dma/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:16:41+00:00,"After a brief bounce in the Asian trades, AUD/USD has resumed the downside towards 0.7550, reaching the lowest levels since December 2020. The aussie shrugs off Westpac’s expectations of the RBA raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in early 2023, as the renewed uptick in the US dollar weighs on the spot. The hawkish Fed’s surprise continues to keep the buoyant tone intact around the greenback while exerting relentless downward pressure on the most majors, including the aussie dollar. From a near tern technical perspective, the pain in the aussie is exacerbating on a sustained weakness below the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 0.7554. The next downside target is seen at the four-month-old descending trendline support at 0.7475. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points south, probing the oversold territory, currently at 30.92, which suggests there is room for the bears to flex their muscles. Only a daily closing above the 200-DMA could call for a temporary reversal, with the bulls likely to face stiff resistance at the horizontal (orange) trendline hurdle at 0.7589. The aussie will then look to recapture the 0.7600 mark." | |
| USD/JPY now focuses on 110.60 & | |
| "Forex Today: Fed-fueled dollar defies yields and gains, gold, cryptos extend fall",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/forex-today-fed-fueled-dollar-defies-yields-and-gains-gold-cryptos-extend-fall/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:06:42+00:00,"Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 18: The dollar has been extending its gains in a long reaction to the Fed, sending AUD/USD to new yearly lows. Cryptocurrencies extend falls and virus variant concern remain of worry. The BOJ left its rates unchanged as expected. Fed-effect : The US dollar has been extending its gains in response to the Federal Reserve’s decision back on Wednesday. The bank signaled two rate hikes in 2023 and the opening of a discussion on reducing bond buys. Worries about rising inflation and forecasts for rapid job gains have fueled the Fed’s shift. The greenback’s advance comes despite gradually falling bond yields. Returns on US 10-year Treasuries has dropped toward 1.50%. Stock markets are below the highs, but far from crashing or suffering a “taper tantrum.” Where next for markets after the Fed shocker AUD/USD stands out with a drop toward 0.75, changing hands at the lowest since December and despite outstanding Australian labor figures released on Thursday. EUR/USD has recaptured 1.19 after dipping below that level. The old continent has extended its reopening. GBP/USD is struggling to hold onto 1.39, suffering also from a report that 11,000 COVID-19 cases were recorded on Thursday, the highest since mid-February. The Delta COVID-19 variant continues spreading quickly and vaccines are now offered to those 18 and older. UK Retail Sales disappointed with a drop of 1.4% in May. The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged as expected, with the interest rate remaining at -0.10%. USD/JPY is hovering around 110. Gold has also been one of the victims of the Fed’s sharp shift. XAU/USD dropped below $1,800 and fails to recover. Bitcoin is changing hands below $38,000, on the back foot once again. Ethereum dropped under $2,400. A major crypto mining hub in Sichuan has reportedly shut down. The economic calendar is relatively light, leaving room for further Fed speculation. See Are the Dollar’s FOMC Gains Sustainable?" | |
| "UK Retail Sales drop unexpectedly 1.4% MoM in May vs. 1.6% expected, GBP/USD tests lows",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/uk-retail-sales-drop-unexpectedly-1-4-mom-in-may-vs-1-6-expected-gbp-usd-tests-lows/,FX Street,2021-06-18T06:06:39+00:00,more to come … | |
| Palladium Price analysis: XPD/USD bounces off 200-DMA amid oversold RSI,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/palladium-price-analysis-xpd-usd-bounces-off-200-dma-amid-oversold-rsi/,FX Street,2021-06-18T05:46:38+00:00,"Palladium (XPD/USD) prices justify the early Asian bounce off 200-day SMA (DMA) while picking up the bids to $2,553, up 1.95% intraday, heading into Friday’s European session. The corrective pullback gains support from the oversold RSI conditions to attack 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 2020 to May 2021 upside, around $2,560. While the quote’s ability to cross $2,560 directs it to the $2,600 threshold, any further upside will be questioned by a three-month-old horizontal resistance around $2,675-80. Alternatively, the metal’s failure to remain strong, followed by a daily closing below the 200-DMA level of $2,495, will have to break the year-long ascending trend line, near $2,460, to keep the XPD/USD sellers hopeful. Overall, palladium prices may recovery during the short-term but bears aren’t out of the woods. Trend: Further recovery expected" | |
| AUD/USD now looks to 0.7500 & | |
| Natural Gas Futures: Scope for further retracements,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/natural-gas-futures-scope-for-further-retracements/,FX Street,2021-06-18T05:36:35+00:00,"In light of advanced prints for natural gas futures markets from CME Group, open interest went down for the second consecutive session on Thursday, this time by nearly 15K contracts. Volume, on the other direction, reversed the previous pullback and rose by around 86.3K contracts. Thursday’s uptick in prices of natural gas was against the backdrop of declining open interest, removing some strength from the move and opening the door to further pullbacks in the very near term. On the upside, the next target remains at the so far YTD highs near $3.370 per MMBtu (June 15)." | |
| GBP/USD remains poised to break 1.3900 ahead of UK data,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-usd-remains-poised-to-break-1-3900-ahead-of-uk-data/,FX Street,2021-06-18T05:31:38+00:00,"The appreciative move in the US dollar keeps GBP/USD under pressure on the last trading day of the week. The pair broke the broader consolidating range of 1.4100-1.4220 on Monday and continued to skid lower. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3901, down 0.13% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar stands higher at 91.92 with 0.05% gains. The greenback moves in tandem with the US 10-year benchmark yields, which read at 1.51%. Investors digested the Fed hawkish inflation forecast and the timing of the probable two rate hikes. Market participants shrugged off the weaker Initial Jobless Claims data as the growth prospects overshadowed the poor readings. On the other hand, the sterling remained unfazed by the reports that the extended lockdown could end two weeks earlier on July 5. On the economic side, UK inflation rose more than expected in May to the highest level since July 2019 and above the Bank of England’s (BOE) target of 2.0%. In the latest development, the latest Reuters poll of 67 economists showed that the central bank would keep its monetary policy unchanged ahead of next week’s BOE interest rate decision. Meanwhile, UK relations with the EU worsens over the Northern Ireland protocol. The UK has asked EU to extend the grace period for chilled meat exports, as it will be banned at the end of June under the terms of the NI Brexit agreement. This, in turn, sour the sentiment around the cable. As for now, investors are closely watching for the UK Retail Sales data to gauge the market sentiment." | |
| "Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pares biggest weekly losses since March 2020 below $1,800",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-pares-biggest-weekly-losses-since-march-2020-below-1800/,FX Street,2021-06-18T05:21:41+00:00,"Gold (XAU/USD) portrays a corrective pullback during the worst week for bulls since March 2020, up 0.57% near $1,783 by the press time of the pre-European session on Friday. While technical support and sluggish markets could best describe the reasons for gold’s latest bounce, easing reflation fears and optimism surrounding US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan adds to the market’s consolidation. As per that latest 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), inflation expectations are the lowest since March. This suggests that the markets believe in the Fed’s comments over “transitory” inflation jump and dims the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. On the other hand, Wall Street Journal (WSJ) came out with the news suggesting the progress in multi-billion dollars worth of spending by the Biden administrations. “A growing bipartisan group of lawmakers and the White House haggled over how to finance a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal, awaiting feedback from President Biden as Democrats began discussions on a separate economic package that could cost up to $6 trillion,” said the WSJ. It’s worth noting that recently easing fears of the covid in Asia and a bit softer Delta variant woes in the UK also contribute to the gold’s latest corrective pullback. Against this backdrop, the US dollar index (DXY) steps back from a two-month top but stays on the road to the highest weekly gains since September 2020, down 0.10% around 91.82 whereas S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time. Though, the US 10-year Treasury yields struggle for clear direction and probes gold buyers of late. Given the lack of major data/events up for publishing during the rest of Friday, gold prices may track US dollar moves. The same highlights inflation expectations and stimulus headlines as the key catalysts to watch for fresh impulse during the likely dull end to the volatile week. Gold’s bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-June upside lacks momentum as MACD favors bears. Additionally, multiple strong upside hurdles will offer a bumpy road to the recovery, if at all it happens, which in turn could disappoint gold buyers. Among the important resistances, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,797 and a horizontal line from late February, around $1,815, should be watched during the short term. If at all the gold bulls manage to cross the $1,815 hurdle, 200-day SMA near $1,837 will be a tough nut to crack for them. On the contrary, a downside break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,768 will be challenged by three-month-old horizontal support close to $1,755. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s weakness past $1,755 will make gold prices vulnerable to retest the $1,700 threshold, with the mid-April low of $1,723 likely offering an intermediate halt during the fall. Trend: Bearish" | |
| GBP/USD faces some consolidation near term & | |
| Crude Oil Futures: Extra losses appear limited,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/crude-oil-futures-extra-losses-appear-limited/,FX Street,2021-06-18T05:16:38+00:00,"CME Group’s preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets showed traders scaled back their open interest positions by nearly 37K contracts after two consecutive daily pullbacks on Thursday. On the other hand, volume rose for the third straight session, this time by almost 28K contracts. Thursday’s negative price action in WTI was in tandem with a sharp drop in open interest, leaving the prospects for further retracements somewhat curtailed. That said, the commodity looks poised to resume the uptrend once the corrective decline finishes, with the immediate target at recent peaks near the $73.00 mark per barrel (June 16)." | |
| EUR/USD: Risks remain tilted to the downside & | |
| USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee bulls attack 74.00 on lowest covid fatalities in two-months,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-inr-price-news-indian-rupee-bulls-attack-74-00-on-lowest-covid-fatalities-in-two-months/,FX Street,2021-06-18T04:36:38+00:00,"USD/INR extends pullback from late April’s top as sellers attack 74.00, down 0.21% around 74.09 amid the initial Indian trading session on Friday. While the US dollar’s consolidation of the Fed-led solid gains triggered the pair’s initial profit booking, the latest fall could be linked to the recovering coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in India. As per the latest Health Ministry reports, per Reuters, India reports a 1,587 daily rise in coronavirus fatalities, the lowest since April 18, taking a total to 383,490. The news also mentions, “62,480 daily rises in coronavirus infections, taking total to 29.76 million.” Additionally, receding US inflation expectations, per the latest 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), joins the optimism over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan to weigh on the US dollar index (DXY) and favor USD/INR prices. It should be noted that an absence of any major data/events also allows the markets to book the Fed-led profits. Even so, the options market remains bullish over the USD/INR prices as risk reversal, a gauge of bullish bets (call options) to the bearish one (put options) jump to the highest in three months with +0.250 levels. Looking forward, USD/INR traders should keep their eyes on the DXY moves and inflation expectations for fresh impulse. Failures to cross a seven-month-old horizontal resistance direct USD/INR towards the previous key hurdle, 50-day SMA level near 73.70. During the fall, the 74.00 can test the bears. Meanwhile, April 19-20 lows near 74.55 add to the upside filters." | |
| Silver Price Analysis: Bulls consolidate near 200-day SMA,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/silver-price-analysis-bulls-consolidate-near-200-day-sma/,FX Street,2021-06-18T04:31:37+00:00,"Silver Price (XAG/USD) took a breather on Friday and edged higher in the early European session. The prices fell sharply consecutively for the past two sessions while touching the low of $25.77 on Thursday. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $26.22, up 1.18% for the day. On the daily chart, the white metal has been under selling pressure near the $28.30 level. The multiple top formations constitute the confluence zone at this level. If price makes sustained moves below the intraday low at $25.91, then it could continue with the prevailing downside momentum. The first target could be found at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $25.72. A break of 200-SMA would open a fresh round of selling coupled with the receding Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD) indicator. That said, XAG/USD bears would be motivated to test the $25.45 horizontal support level, the levels last seen in April. The next in line will be low on April 14 at $25.19. Alternatively, if price decisively breaks the $26.25 key psychological mark then it could progress toward the $26.70 horizontal resistance level followed by the previous day high of $27.24. A daily close above the mentioned level could prompt the bulls to march toward the June 16 high at $27.83." | |
| EUR/USD: Mildly bid above 1.1900 as US dollar bulls take a breather,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-usd-mildly-bid-above-1-1900-as-us-dollar-bulls-take-a-breather/,FX Street,2021-06-18T04:06:42+00:00,"EUR/USD flirts with intraday top surrounding 1.1925, recently easing to 1.1920, amid the first positive day in three, up 0.10% on a day, heading into Friday’s European session. The currency major pair dropped to the lowest since mid-April but failed to conquer the 1.1900 threshold. The pair sellers stepped back afterwards as the US dollar consolidates recent gains amid a sluggish session and mildly optimistic markets. Behind the cautious optimism of the markets could be the chatters relating to US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan and a three-month low of US inflation expectations. As per that latest 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), inflation expectations are the lowest since March. This suggests that the markets believe in the Fed’s comments over “transitory” inflation jump and dims the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. It should be observed that a lack of major data/events and complex signals of the ECB policymakers, over the tapering, offers sluggish markets. Bundesbank President, also ECB board member, Jens Weidmann backed an end of Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) the previous day. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said late Thursday that “supply and demand issues complicate the inflation outlook.” Amid these plays, the US dollar index (DXY) steps back from a two-month top but stays on the road to the highest weekly gains since September 2020, down 0.10% around 91.82 whereas S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time. Though, the US 10-year Treasury yields struggle for fresh direction and can keep EUR/USD traders troubled. Moving on, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and Eurozone Economy and Finance Ministers’ meeting may offer intermediate moves to the EUR/USD pair amid a likely lacklustre day. However, US inflation expectations and DXY moves will be the key to watch. EUR/USD battles support-turned-resistance from March 2020, around 1.1925-30, but bearish MACD keeps sellers hopeful even as the 1.1900 threshold tests intraday bears. It’s worth noting that a corrective pullback beyond the previous support line, around $1,930, will aim for a 200-day SMA level near 1.2000 whereas a downside break of 1.1900 will target multiple tops marked amid late March and initial April month’s trading around the 1.1800 round figure." | |
| EUR/JPY advances toward 133.50 post- BOJ decision,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-jpy-advances-toward-133-50-post-boj-decision/,FX Street,2021-06-18T03:51:41+00:00,"EUR/JPY accumulates minor gains on Friday in the Asian trading hours. The pair fell sharply from the high of 132.90 in the previous session to close near 131.20. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY trades at 131.39, up 0.15% for the day. The Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation rate climbed 2.0% in May from 1.6% in April. The reading is the highest since October 2018 and surpassed the central bank’s target. The Construction Output jumped 42.3% in April. Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Philp Lane ruled out the possibility of taper talks in the September meeting. The comments emphasize the central bank’s cautious approach to monetary policy as there are still uncertainties lingering on the Eurozone’s economic outlook. The shared currency gains were limited following the remarks from the key policymaker. On the other hand, the Japanese yen posted some minor gains after the government decided to lift the COVID-19 restrictions in Tokyo and eight other provinces. The economy struggles to recover from the pandemic due to the slower vaccine rollout, despite the massive stimulus from the policymakers. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) as widely expected kept its interest unchanged at -0.1% and maintained the target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around 0%. The yen slid against the majors as an immediate reaction to the decision." | |
| "USD/JPY defends 110.00, shrugs off BOJ status-quo, covid relief extension",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-jpy-defends-110-00-shrugs-off-boj-status-quo-covid-relief-extension/,FX Street,2021-06-18T03:51:37+00:00,"USD/JPY pays a little heed to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy announcement on early Friday. That said, the yen pair holds lower ground above 110.00 while keeping the previous day’s pullback from April’s top. BOJ matches wide market expectations as it keeps a 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target around 0% and a short-term interest rate target at -0.1%. It’s worth noting that the Japanese central bank did extend the pandemic-relief program beyond the current September deadline by six months to March 2022 in its latest monetary policy. Read: BOJ keeps monetary policy steady in June, extends pandemic-relief programme As the measures were highly expected, USD/JPY shows a little reaction to the BOJ news and remains on the back foot, tracking the US dollar pullback, by the press time. That said, the US dollar index (DXY) steps back from a two-month top but stays on the road to the highest weekly gains since September 2020, down 0.10% around 91.82 by the press time. Behind the greenback’s consolidation could be the receding inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). Also, removal of virus-led emergencies from the majority of Japan’s prefectures, except for Tokyo, battles the political turmoil in the Asian major as it holds Olympics amid covid resurgence. It’s worth noting that the chatters over US stimulus and receding virus fears in the West may also allow traders to consolidate Fed-led gains. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains and so do Japan’s Nikkei 225 but the US 10-year Treasury yields struggle for fresh direction and can keep USD/JPY traders troubled. Given the scheduled press conference of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, around 06:00 AM GMT, USD/JPY traders may have a catalyst to watch ahead of a likely quiet end to the volatile week. A five-week-old ascending trend channel keeps USD/JPY buyers hopeful between 110.80 and 109.60 wherein the upper boundary gains strength from April’s high. Also acting as the upside barrier is March’s low near 111.00. Meanwhile, the mid-March top surrounding 109.40 and the monthly bottom close to 109.20 offer extra filters to the south." | |
| "BOJ keeps monetary policy steady in June, extends pandemic-relief programme",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/boj-keeps-monetary-policy-steady-in-june-extends-pandemic-relief-programme/,FX Street,2021-06-18T03:36:39+00:00,"The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its monetary policy settings unchanged following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Friday. The central bank kept the benchmark policy rate on hold at -10bps while maintaining its pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to JPY180 bln. The BOJ, as widely expected, extended a deadline for its pandemic-relief programme, in a continued to effort to stimulate the fragile economy and tepid inflation. more to come …" | |
| Bank of England criticizes Bitcoin and touts potential CBDC would not be energy inefficient,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/bank-of-england-criticizes-bitcoin-and-touts-potential-cbdc-would-not-be-energy-inefficient/,FX Street,2021-06-18T02:51:40+00:00,"The United Kingdom’s central bank has highlighted the drawback of the energy inefficiency of Bitcoin and said that its central bank digital currency (CBDC) would not share the same disadvantage. The Bank of England criticized Bitcoin for its energy usage while highlighting that a central bank digital currency would play a role in the country’s transition to a net-zero economy. Tom Mutton, the fintech director of the Bank of England, said: “Bitcoin, given its performance shortcomings and energy inefficiency, is in no way a relevant comparison for the sort of technology we might use in a central bank digital currency.” According to the central bank’s fintech director, the underlying technology behind CBDCs could be “tens of thousands of times more efficient per transaction” than the leading cryptocurrency. Mutton’s speech at the Future of FinTech Conference reiterated the bank’s interest in developing a CBDC while keeping fiat “available for as long as people wish to use it.” The fintech director stated that a British CBDC would require a great deal more work before its launch, and Mutton remains optimistic about the potential role of blockchain for its digital pound. He further urged citizens in the United Kingdom not to “throw the blockchain baby out with the Bitcoin bathwater.” The director emphasized the differences between stablecoins and a CBDC, saying that the Bank of England-backed CBDC would be the safest type of money available. He further compared existing private stablecoins and other forms of private money, stating: “The ability to convert, on-demand, ‘private’ money – such as a bank deposit, into ‘public’ money, issued by the central bank, in the form of cash, is a foundation of that confidence. It also promotes the understanding that different types of money are uniform and makes them substitutable.” Although Mutton has not confirmed that the Bank of England would be issuing a CBDC, he added that the responses to the discussion paper on central bank digital currencies were favorable to a cautious approach. He concluded that there was near-universal agreement on further research needed before finalizing a decision." | |
| ECB& | |
| "USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee stalls its decline near 74.50, not out of the woods yet",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-inr-price-news-indian-rupee-stalls-its-decline-near-74-50-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/,FX Street,2021-06-18T02:31:39+00:00,"USD/INR is easing towards 74.00, having faced rejection just shy of the 74.50 barrier, in the wake of a minor pullback in the US dollar across the board. Strong US jobless claims eased fears over the Fed’s hawkish surprise, weighing on the US Treasury yields alongside the dollar. The US dollar jumped alongside the Treasury yields on Fed’s hawkishness, sending the cross to monthly highs of 73.83. From a near-term technical perspective, the price rallied hard after the rounding bottom upside break, testing the static resistance (orange trendline) near 74.30 en route 74.50. However, sellers continue to lurk above the 74.30 resistance, knocking off the rates lower. Therefore, acceptance above the latter could re-ignite the bullish momentum, opening doors towards the next horizontal trendline hurdle at 74.64. Further up, the pattern target measured at 75.11 could be tested. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding firmer while closing in on the overbought territory, allowing room for more upside. However, if the selling pressure intensifies from the current levels around 74.22, a drop back towards the earlier resistance now support at 74.00 remains in the offing. Sellers will then challenge the fierce support at 73.72, the confluence of the 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and horizontal trendline connecting previous tops." | |
| "Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD recovers to $1,785, snaps five-day downtrend on USD pullback",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gold-price-analysis-xau-usd-recovers-to-1785-snaps-five-day-downtrend-on-usd-pullback/,FX Street,2021-06-18T02:26:36+00:00,"Update: Gold (XAU/USD) extends bounce off May’s monthly low to $1,785, up 0.65% intraday, during the early Friday’s trading. In doing so, the gold traders track mildly bid S&P 500 Futures, as well as a pullback in the US dollar index (DXY), to portray the consolidation near the multi-day low. The recovery moves could also be attributed to the key support structure on the monthly chart near $1,765-70. It should, however, be noted that the lackluster moves of the US Treasury yields and a light calendar, coupled with dead news feeds, probe the gold buyers. It’s worth noting that gold dropped during the last five days on a stretch as concerns relating to the Fed’s bond-purchase tapering and rate hikes gain momentum. Though, downbeat inflation expectations seem to offer intermediate bounces. Previous updates…. Update: Gold (XAU/USD) snaps a five-day losing streak, up 0.12% around $1,775, amid a sluggish Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal dropped to the lowest since early May the previous day as the market’s rush to risk-safety, after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike signals, put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar and negatively affected gold prices. However, a lack of major catalysts and increasing odds favoring the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan passage seem to recently trigger gold’s corrective pullback from the key monthly support structure ranging from 2011 around $1,760-65. That said, S&P 500 Futures rise for the first time in three days, up 0.12% around 4,218 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw near 1.51% by the press time. Given the lack of major data/events in Asia, sentiment-related headlines and the market’s consolidation to the Fed-led moves will be the key to forecast gold’s immediate direction. Gold prices collapsed through daily support by over 5.2% since Fed Chair Powell described this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the ‘talking about talking about’ meeting. Gold bugs now fear that members are now seeking a plan to reduce the pace of QE and they have started to bail ship. Crucially, the members are also bringing forward their projections from flat to +50bp in rate hikes by end-2023. The combination has continued to percolate through markets with knee jerk reactions in the US dollar. The DXY has powered ahead is trading at the highest since April 13, taking on the 92 level with a high after easily breaking above the 200-day moving average near 91.538. Bulls now have sights on a test of the March 31 high near 93.437. However, one of the key takeaways from the meeting for gold markets was the reaction in the 10-year breakeven inflation rates that are down 6 bp on the hawkish hold. ”That is, the market has even more confidence that the Fed won’t let inflation get out of hand. With the 10-year yield up 7 bp, the real yield has risen 14 bp to -0.76%, the highest since April 19. This is dollar-positive and we think there’s room to go even higher,” analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained. The PCE factor and uncertainty among the members was an important takeaway also. Analysts at TD Securities explained that this suggests ”the Fed isn’t behind the curve by any means, which leaves us in a scenario where the upside story for gold is tied to an unwind of Fed pricing that is too hawkish.” ”If inflation turns out to be truly transitory, the Fed should be happy to walk the hiking signals back. Unfortunately for gold bugs, underlying inflation trends will remain distorted for months “” which removes the immediate impetus for buying the yellow metal,” the analysts explained. ”Considering that gold was set-up for a pullback like a speed bump on the racetrack, with speculative and physical flows slowing, the pullback has room to run. However, CTAs are only set to add to their shorts below $1740/oz.” Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, the bulls are stepping in at a critical area of support. This is a key area of liquidity that dates back to 2011. Bulls have started to pick the low hanging fruit in New York following the final shakeout of weak hands. The bid comes in ahead of the last day of the week as squaring of books would be expected to see profit-taking ramp up. From a daily perspective, the price would be expected to correct at least to the prior structure with a confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area." | |
| NZD/USD is failing to come up for air,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/nzd-usd-is-failing-to-come-up-for-air/,FX Street,2021-06-18T02:01:40+00:00,"NZD/USD is trading at 0.7006 and flat n the day as traders wind down for the weekend following a turbulent and busy past few sessions surrounding both domestic and non-domestic key events. The main event came in the US Federal Reserve’s surprise hawkish hold. Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell described the Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the ‘talking about talking about’ meeting. Critically for markets, the Fed members are likely to now be seeking a plan to reduce the pace of QE which has driven a bid into the US dollar. Additionally, members of the board are also bringing forward their projections from flat to +50bp in rate hikes by end-2023. The DXY has powered ahead is trading at the highest since April 13, taking on the 92 level with a high after easily breaking above the 200-day moving average near 91.538. Bulls now have sights on a test of the March 31 high near 93.437. This has sunk the kiwi despite strong New Zealand first quarter Gross Domestic Product. ”Inflation expectations have also eased back in reaction to the Fed’s updated guidance, which is an additional positive for the greenback” analysts at ANZ Bank argued. This is evident in today’s bond markets. Yield curves flattened led by a strong rally in US medium and longer-dated securities as US inflation expectations fell back sharply. The US 10-year yield fell sharply from 1.5940% to a low of 1.4690%, ending the day down -4.00%. The yield on the US 30-year bond also fell to its lowest level since late February. All of this is a sign that the market is clearly of the conviction that the rise in inflation is transitory. ”The USD’s rise may run further near term and it is likely that scheduled Fed speakers over the coming week will echo a more hawkish tone,” analysts at ANZ bank said. ”In the short term, rallies in NZD/USD are selling opportunities.”" | |
| "BOE seen hiking rates in 2023, as it looks through temporary inflation rise – Reuters poll",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/boe-seen-hiking-rates-in-2023-as-it-looks-through-temporary-inflation-rise-reuters-poll/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:46:38+00:00,"Ahead of next week’s Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision, the latest Reuters poll of 67 economists showed that they expect no change to the interest rates this month. However, they predict the BOE to hike rates in 2023. “British inflation can rise above 3% before the Bank of England feels discomfort.” “Inflation will peak at 2.4% in the final quarter of this year before gradually scaling down. The Bank will tolerate it at 3.0-3.5% before feeling discomfort.” “The economy will expand 4.4% this quarter, stronger than the 4.1% predicted a month ago. For 2021, growth was pegged at 6.2% and in 2022 at 5.2%.” “None of the 67 economists polled expected any change to borrowing costs when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 24. It will be 2023 before the Bank raises rates.” “Nine of 50 economists in the latest poll predicted an increase before the end of next year compared with four of 35 last month. The median for end-2023 was lifted to 0.50% from 0.25%.” Read: GBP/USD consolidates losses above 1.3900 on Brexit relief, UK Retail Sales eyed" | |
| US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY eases from key resistance structure around 92.00,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/us-dollar-index-price-analysis-dxy-eases-from-key-resistance-structure-around-92-00/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:41:38+00:00,"US dollar index (DXY) steps back from mid-April tops during early a sluggish Asian session on Friday. That said, the DXY seesaws around 91.90 after rising to the fresh high in nine weeks the previous day. In doing so, the greenback buyers consolidate recent gains from 50% Fibonacci retracement of September 2020 to January 2021 downside, as well as a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area, surrounding 91.95-92.00. Even so, the bullish MACD and the quote’s sustained trading beyond 200-day SMA (DMA) backs the DXY bulls to overcome the 92.00 hurdle, which in turn could aim for an early March high of 92.50. However, any further upside will be questioned by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the yearly resistance line, respectively around 92.65 and 92.90. Meanwhile, pullback moves can be less worrisome until staying beyond the 200-DMA level of 91.51. It’s worth noting that tops marked in February and May, around 91.60 and 91.43 respectively, act as additional filters to the downside. Trend: Bullish" | |
| AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bulls struggle to break above 1.0780 mark,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-nzd-price-analysis-bulls-struggle-to-break-above-1-0780-mark/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:41:37+00:00,"AUD/NZD treads water in the Asian session. The pair opened at the higher level, albeit fizzling out rather quickly to touch the swing low at 1.0767. As of writing, the AUD/NZD was seen trading at 1.0780 with 0.1% losses. On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD has been consolidating near the 1.0780 mark with multiple support formations. The downward trendline from the high of 1.0947 acts as a strong resistance barrier for the bulls. A sustained move above the 1.0780 mark could push AUD/NZD higher towards the previous day’s high at 1.0805, which also coincides with the bearish sloping line. The next area of resistance would be located at the June 11 high at 1.0816. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reads above the midline, with bullish crossover. The reading signifies underlying bullish sentiment. AUD/NZD bulls would keep their eye on the 1.0825 horizontal resistance level. Alternatively, any downtick in the MACD could invalid the previous price set up. The cross could test the 1.0765 horizontal support level followed by the June 9 low at 1.0742. Market participants then move toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0730." | |
| USD/CNY fix: 6.4361 vs 6.4490 prior,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cny-fix-6-4361-vs-6-4490-prior/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:26:37+00:00,"In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4361 vs prior 6.4490. China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer." | |
| "EUR/GBP trims intraday losses, stays near 10-week low ahead of UK Retail Sales",https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/eur-gbp-trims-intraday-losses-stays-near-10-week-low-ahead-of-uk-retail-sales/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:21:38+00:00,"EUR/GBP remains on the back foot, despite the recent bounce off intraday low, during the third daily downside amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote seems to take clues from the market’s consolidation while testing bears cheering the upbeat catalysts from the UK. Despite a jump in the UK’s hospitalization, the levels are below January’s record peak and favor the odds of a two-week early unlock of Britain, as proposed by PM Boris Johnson. In this regard, the UK’s Daily Mail mentioned anonymous sources to say, “Lockdown could end two weeks early if Covid data continues to improve.” Elsewhere, the UK’s formal request of a three-month time to solve the sausage battle with the European Union (EU) in Northern Ireland (NI) also backs the EUR/GBP bears. The Guardian cites Britain’s readiness to guarantee the EU citizen voting right in local elections as the driver behind the request. The news said, “The Brexit minister, Lord Frost, has written to the EU with an official request to extend the grace period to 30 September for the sale of sausages produced in Great Britain in Northern Ireland supermarkets.” It’s worth noting that the pair dropped to the lowest since early April the previous day amid the market’s shift from the Euro to the US dollar due to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike signals. However, the following pause in the US dollar index (DXY) rally from April 13 top triggers the corrective pullback of the regional currency, as well as the EUR/GBP pair. Amid these plays, US Treasury yields seesaw around 1.51% while the stock futures are mildly bid. Looking forward, the UK’s Retail Sales for May, expected to ease from 42.4% YoY to 29%, will be the key as the strong print of the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has already strengthened the odds of the Bank of England’s (BOE) tapering. A gradual downward trajectory below 100-day SMA, around 0.8635, directs EUR/GBP to a two-month-old descending support line near 0.8515." | |
| AUD/USD Price Analysis: Rebound from yearly low clings to 200-DMA,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/aud-usd-price-analysis-rebound-from-yearly-low-clings-to-200-dma/,FX Street,2021-06-18T01:01:38+00:00,"AUD/USD remains sidelined around 0.7550, edges lower of late, during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays a corrective pullback from the yearly low while taking rounds to 200-day SMA (DMA). Given the U-turn of the Momentum line from oversold territory, the latest recovery is likely to last longer if the quote manages to secure a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of 0.7555. Following that, the 0.7600 round figure and multiple levels marked since late December 2020 around 0.7640-45 may test AUD/USD buyers before directing them to a downward sloping trend line from February 25, close to 0.7765. On the flip side, the 0.7531-19 area comprising multiple lows marked since December 11, 2020 tests the pair bears targeting the August-September 2020 tops near 0.7420. During the quote’s weakness past 0.7420, highs marked in October and early November of 2020, close to 0.7340-45, becomes the key. Overall, AUD/USD sellers seem tiring around the key SMA support, suggesting the bounce off important support zone. Trend: Further recovery expected" | |
| USD/CHF looks to gain beyond 0.9180 amid firmer US dollar,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-chf-looks-to-gain-beyond-0-9180-amid-firmer-us-dollar/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:51:45+00:00,"The buying pressure in the US dollar keeps USD/CHF higher in the Asian session on Friday morning. The pair touched the multi-month high in the previous session with more than 110 pips movement. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9178, up 0.06% for the day. The US dollar index trades at 91.87 with 0.4% losses, after rising near the 92.00 level on Thursday. Investors digested the hawkish tone of the Fed and higher-than-expected inflation readings. The US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 412K for the first time in the past seven weeks and above the market expectations of 359K. The US 10-year benchmark yields fell slightly toward 1.56% following the data. The US Dollar mirroring the movement in the bond market. On the other hand, the Swiss Franc remained on the backfoot after the Swiss National Bank kept its ultra-loose monetary policy in place, despite raising its inflation forecast. The central bank said that the currency remained highly valued, the comments weighed on the franc’s valuations. The divergence in the monetary policy stance between the two economies is expected to influence the pair’s performance in the near future." | |
| GBP/NZD Price Analysis: Bulls stepping up to test bearish commitments,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/gbp-nzd-price-analysis-bulls-stepping-up-to-test-bearish-commitments/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:51:41+00:00,The cross has been trying to move higher out of the consolidation confinements of the symmetrical triangle. The current attempt is a 4th attempt to break free of the choppiness. The price has already broken the dynamic resistance and is now testing commitments at the prior highs looking left. A break of this horizontal resistance followed by a retest that holds could be a signal that the cross is on the verge of extending the daily bullish trend. | |
| USD/JPY edges lower above 110.00 amid steady US Treasury yields ahead of BOJ,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-jpy-edges-lower-above-110-00-amid-steady-us-treasury-yields-ahead-of-boj/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:36:37+00:00,"USD/JPY fades early Asian bounce but prints mild gains amid sluggish start to Friday’s Tokyo trading. The reason could be linked to the mixed performance of US Treasury yields and the S&P 500 Futures amid a light calendar and pre-BOJ caution. Recovery in Japan’s inflation data may have helped USD/JPY prices earlier. That said, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose recovered from -0.4% to -0.1% YoY in May, versus a 0.7% forecast. On the same line, National CPI ex Fresh Food matched upbeat forecasts of +0.1% compared to -0.1% prior. It’s worth noting that the mildly positive market sentiment may have taken its clues from the increasing odds of US President Joe Biden’s Infrastructure spending passage as well as Japan’s decision to remove virus-led emergency from most prefectures except for Tokyo. Additionally, increasing talks over the UK’s early unlock, compared to the recently announced four-week delay to June 21 deadline, also helps traders to consolidate the previous two-day losses, mainly linked to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-hike signals. Amid these plays, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 0.17% intraday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield rises one basis point (bp) to 1.52% after declining five bps the previous day. Looking forward, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy decision is less likely to offer any dramatic moves to the USD/JPY as the Japanese central bank is widely expected to keep the easy money flowing. However, the central bank’s chattered intent to extend pandemic-related relief measures till September may help the bulls afterward. A five-week-old ascending trend channel keeps USD/JPY buyers hopeful between 110.80 and 109.60 wherein the upper boundary gains strength from April’s high. Also acting as the upside barrier is March’s low near 111.00. Meanwhile, the mid-March top surrounding 109.40 and the monthly bottom close to 109.20 offer extra filters to the south." | |
| XRP Price Prediction: Ripple fears of a major decline are unwarranted,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/xrp-price-prediction-ripple-fears-of-a-major-decline-are-unwarranted/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:11:43+00:00,"XRP price remains locked in a range between the psychologically important $1.00 and the neckline of a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $0.76. However, a lack of technical clues leaves frothy forecasts on the sideline until directional confirmation can be gleaned from the charts. XRP price has displayed similar passiveness and lack of direction as most altcoins. Ripple was not inspired by the 30% rally in Bitcoin price, instead favoring to be range-bound between two intimidating levels, the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $0.76 and $1.00. The range has not been accompanied by any signs of accumulation or distribution, raising the probability that XRP price may remain locked in the governing price range for the foreseeable future. With XRP price at an inflection point, it is imperative to consider both sides of the trade. On the long side, Ripple is clear of any obstacles until $1.00, creating a 20% gain for investors from the current price. In addition, a daily close above $1.00 would introduce new bullish opportunities and targets, including a rally to the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May correction at $1.14 with the declining 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.16, yielding a gain of 37% from price at the time of writing. Ripple investors should use pullbacks to the $0.76 support level to increase position sizes with an eye on maximizing portfolio gains. It provides a clear risk level if the trade goes against them. XRP/USD daily chart A bearish view of XRP price is complemented by a minor head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline close to $0.76, bolstering the inflection point’s importance. If the neckline and $0.76 break on a daily closing basis, Ripple investors can then consider bearish outcomes for XRP price. However, it is critical to note that standing in front of a test of the May 23 low at $0.65 is the union of the anchored volume-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) at $0.74 and the 200-day SMA at $0.72. Nevertheless, the downside risk for XRP price appears limited to 20% from the current price. Not a highly persuasive argument for loading the portfolio with short positions. Advocating for a neutral view for XRP price and for investors to refrain from building sizeable short positions is the whale transaction count, which tracks transfers of $100,000 or more. In the past, jumps in the Ripple on-chain metric have matched important tops as large investors were liquidating their positions. On a 30-day smoothed basis, the Santiment whale transaction count just tested the early March lows, suggesting that whale-driven selling pressure has been exhausted. If that is the case, XRP price downside should be limited to $0.76, or at most $0.72. XRP Whale Transaction Count – Santiment Ripple, unlike other altcoins, shows selling is exhausted within the whale investor category. Moreover, it is furnished with a stubborn range of support that should prove instrumental in sustaining XRP price if the cryptocurrency complex devolves into another collective sell-off. Hence, making headline-grabbing bearish predictions is unwarranted at this point. Lastly, the importance of the SEC case against Ripple should not be dismissed in consideration of XRP price projections. Until there is a settlement, as most spectators anticipate, the digital asset will not go public and will not be available for trading on many major cryptocurrency exchanges. Both things are price negative while the case remains live. In the following video, FXStreet’s analysts highlight two key price points for investors to consider." | |
| USD/CAD Price Analysis: Retreats to 1.2350 after facing rejection from three-month-old hurdle,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/usd-cad-price-analysis-retreats-to-1-2350-after-facing-rejection-from-three-month-old-hurdle/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:11:38+00:00,"USD/CAD edges lower around 1.2345, down 0.10% intraday, amid Friday’s Asian session. The Loonie pair jumped to the highest since April 28 the previous day before reversing from 1.2378. The pullback from the three-month-old resistance area surrounding 1.2365-50 also gains support of overbought RSI to suggest further weakness of the quote. On its way down, USD/CAD may witness 1.2320 and the 1.2300 threshold as immediate rest-points ahead of highlighting the late April swing lows near 1.2265-60 as important support. Should the bears keep reins below 1.2260, the odds of witnessing a slump to Tuesday’s top near 1.2200 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 1.2365 hurdle will recall the 1.2400 round figure to the chart before directing USD/CAD buyers to April 27 top near 1.2420. During the pair’s run-up past 1.2420, lows marked during March 19 and April 21 offer a strong resistance around 1.2465-70. Trend: Pullback expected" | |
| Silver is being lapped up by the bulls looking for a bargain,https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2021/06/18/silver-is-being-lapped-up-by-the-bulls-looking-for-a-bargain/,FX Street,2021-06-18T00:06:38+00:00,"Overnight, in the aftermath of the Federal reserve, XAG/USD fell from a high of $27.24 and landed heavily on a low of $25.77 marking one of the biggest falls for the year so far. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $26.01 and has travelled between a low of $25.91 and a high of $26.01 as the bulls continue to buy into the low hanging fruit. There was no let-up in the US dollar on Thursday, the day after the US Federal Reserve switched up its rhetoric to such an extent that markets, on the knee-jerk, priced in rate hikes to come sooner than first expected and as if tapering by August was a done deal. The price of silver was down over 4% by the end of the North American session, losing its footing in the wake of US dollar strength, but bulls started to step in during the New York. Meanwhile, the bond market started to paint a different story on Thursday which could give rise to a sharp correction in the US dollar, subsequently supporting precious metals which have been sold off to extreme weekly technical levels. For instance, the US 10-year yield fell sharply from 1.5940% to a low of 1.4690%, ending the day down -4.00%. The yield on the US 30-year bond also fell to its lowest level since late February. This is a sign that the market is clearly of the conviction that the rise in inflation is transitory. From a technical standpoint, the markets have already begun to take profits on the Fed drop. Bulls are looking to take silver into liquidity around the $26.78 mark where the 38.2% Fibo of the daily bearish impulse is located. Ther 61.8% and 50% are deeper in volume where the price could end up if the bears done pounce again soon." | |