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progress. In this report, expanded attention is given to inequity in climate vulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and differential impacts and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature has also been increasingly accompanied by attent... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
In this report, the risk framing for the first time spans all three working groups, includes risks from the responses to climate change, considers dynamic and cascading consequences, describes with more geographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such risks over a range of scenarios. The focus on sol... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
their biodiversity) and human society. These interactions are the basis of emerging risks from Figure TS.2 | This report has a strong focus on the interactions among the coupled systems climate ecosystems Human society causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards exposure and vulnerability generates impacts ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Adaptation in this report is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilita... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Vulnerability is a component of risk, but also, independently, an important focus. Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and ada... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Risk in this report is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure an... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and tr... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses. This report assesses literature including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase of the World Climate Research Programme. Future pr... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
WGI assessed increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 °C). Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach or exceed 1.5°C in the near-term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario. | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.4 Ecosystem change has led to the loss of specialised ecosystems where warming has reduced thermal habitat, as at the poles, at the tops of mountains and at the equator, with the hottest ecosystems becoming intolerable for many species . For example, warming, reduced ice, thawing permafrost and a changing hydrol... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.3 At the warm edges of distributions, adaptation limits to human-induced warming have led to widespread local population losses that result in range contractions . Among land plants and animals, local population loss was detected in around 50% of studied species and is often attributable to extreme events . Su... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.2 Observed responses of species to climate change have altered biodiversity and impacted ecosystem structure and resilience in most regions . Range shifts reduce biodiversity in the warmest regions and locations as adaptation limits are exceeded . Simultaneously, these shifts homogenise biodiversity in regions ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1 Climate change has altered marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems all around the world . Effects were experienced earlier and are more widespread with more far-reaching consequences than anticipated . Biological responses, including changes in physiology, growth, abundance, geographic placement and shifti... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.1 Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia , which has greatly impacted species on land and in the ocean . Consistent with expectations, species in all ecosystems have shifted their geographic ranges and altered the timing of seasonal events . Among ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
such as declining ranges of krill and emperor penguins . Coral reefs are suffering global declines, with abrupt shifts in community composition persisting for years . Deserts and tropical systems are decreasing in diversity due to heat stress and extreme events . In contrast, arid lands are displaying varied responses ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2 Widespread and severe loss and damage to human and natural systems are being driven by human-induced climate changes increasing the frequency and/or intensity and/or duration of extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, cyclones and flood . Extremes are surpassing ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
knowledge and unique insights about plants and animals, are being lost . As 80% of the world's remaining biodiversity is on Indigenous homelands, these losses have cascading impacts on cultural and linguistic diversity and Indigenous knowledge systems, food security, health, and livelihoods, often with irreparable dama... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.1 Extreme climate events comprising conditions beyond which many species are adapted are occurring on all continents, with severe impacts . The most severe impacts are occurring in the most climate-sensitive species and ecosystems, characterised by traits that limit their abilities to regenerate between events o... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.1.5 Climate change is affecting ecosystem services connected to human health, livelihoods and well-being . In terrestrial ecosystems, carbon uptake services linked to CO₂ fertilisation effects are being increasingly limited by drought and warming and exacerbated by non-climatic anthropogenic impacts . Deforestatio... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and-symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a-denoting an increasing adverse impact and a denoting that, wi... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors . Droughts, floods, wildfires and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, nutrition and livelihoods of millions of people across regions .... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.2 Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events, such as flowering and insect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability . There is high confidence that climate change is altering the distribution of cultivated and wild terrestrial, marine and fre... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B 3.1 Climate change impacts are negatively affecting agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to meet human needs . Human-induced global warming has slowed the growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes . Crop yields are compromised by... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.4 Extreme climatic events have been observed in all inhabited regions, with many regions experiencing unprecedented consequences, particularly when multiple hazards occur at the same time or within the same space . Since ARS, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events such as wildfires, extreme hea... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.2.2 Some extreme events have already emerged which exceeded projected global mean warming conditions for 2100, leading to abrupt changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems . For some forest types an increase in the frequency, severity and duration of wildfires and droughts has resulted in abrupt and possibly irr... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.2 Worldwide, people are increasingly experiencing unfamiliar precipitation patterns, including extreme precipitation events . Nearly half a billion people now live in areas where the long-term average precipitation is now as high as was previously seen in only about 1 in 6 years . Approximately 163 million peopl... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
city and hazards and is further exacerbated by inadequate water governance . Extreme events and underlying vulnerabilities have intensified the societal impacts of droughts and floods, negatively impacted agriculture and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases. Economic and societal impact... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods . The frequency of sudden food production losses has increased since at least the mid20th century on land and sea . The impacts of climate-related extrem... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.1 Climate change has intensified the global hydrological cycle, causing several societal impacts, which are felt disproportionately by vulnerable people . Human-induced climate change has affected physical aspects of water security through increasing water scarcity and exposing more people to water-related extre... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.5 The impacts of climate change on food systems affect everyone, but some groups are more vulnerable.Women, the elderly and children in low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities and people in high-risk regions more often experience malnutrition, liv... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.3.4 Climate-related emerging food safety risks are increasing globally in agriculture and fisheries . Higher temperatures and humidity caused by climate change increases toxigenic fungi on many food crops . Harmful algal blooms and water-borne diseases threaten food security and the economy and livelihoods of many... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5 Climate change has already harmed human physical and mental health . In all regions, health impacts often undermine efforts for inclusive development. Women, children, the elderly, Indigenous People, low-income households and socially marginalised groups within cities, settlements, regions and countries are the ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.5 Climate-induced changes in the hydrological cycle have negatively impacted freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change and changes in land use and water pollution are key drivers of ecosystem loss and degradation , with negative impacts observed on culturally significant terrestrial and freshwater sp... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.6 Hydrological cycle changes have impacted food and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases. Climate-induced trends and extremes in the water cycle have impacted agricultural production positively and negatively, with negative impacts outweighing the positive ones . Droughts, floods... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.4.3 Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates, causing negative societal impacts among communities that depend on cryospheric water resources . Over the last two decades, the global glacier mass loss rate has been the highest since the glacier mass balance measurements began a century ago . Melting of glaciers, ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
higr confidence). Anthropogenic dimate change has led to increased likelihood, severity and societal impacts of droughts in many regions . Between 1970 and 2019, drought-related disaster events worldwide caused billions of dollars in economic damages . Drylands are particularly exposed to climate change related drough... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.6 Higher temperatures combined with land use/land cover change are making more areas suitable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases . More extreme weather events have contributed to vector-borne disease outbreaks in humans through direct effects on pathogens and vectors and indirect effects on human beha... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
3 e y s . These risks include Salmonella, Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium infections mycotoxins associated with cancer and stunting in children and seafood contamination with marine toxins and pathogens . Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally and are influenced, in part, by food availability, acc... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.2 Mental health challenges increase with warming temperatures , trauma associated with extreme weather and loss of livelihoods and culture . Distress sufficient to impair mental health has been caused by climate-related ecological grief associated with environmental change or extreme weather and climate events... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.4 Climate change has contributed to malnutrition in all its forms in many regions, including undernutrition, overnutrition and obesity, and to disease susceptibility , especially for women, pregnant women, children, low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups and small-scale producers . Extreme cl... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.3 Increasing temperatures and heatwaves have increased mortality and morbidity , with impacts that vary by age, gender, urbanisation and socioeconomic factors . A significant proportion of warm-season heat-related mortality in temperate regions is attributed to observed anthropogenic climate change , with fewer ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.5.9 Several chronic, non-communicable respiratory diseases are climate-sensitive based on their exposure pathways , although climate change is not the dominant driver in all cases. Exposure to wildfires and associated smoke has increased in several regions . The 2019-2020 southeastern Australian wildfires resulte... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.3 Outcomes of climate-related migration are highly variable, with socioeconomic factors and household resources affecting migration success . The more agency migrants have , the greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas . Displacement or low-agency migration is associated with poor health, w... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7 Vulnerability significantly determines how climate change impacts are being experienced by societies and communities. Vulnerability to climate change is a multi-dimensional dynamic phenomenon shaped by intersecting historical and contemporary political, economic and cultural processes of marginalisation . Societ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6 Since AR5 there is increased evidence that climate hazards associated with extreme events and variability act as direct drivers of involuntary migration and displacement and as indirect drivers through deteriorating climate-sensitive livelihoods . Most climate-related displacement and migration occur within nati... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.1 The most common climatic drivers for migration and displacement are drought, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods . Extreme climate events act as both direct drivers and indirect drivers of involuntary migration and displacement . The largest absolute number of people displaced by extreme w... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
or rural to rural, that is associated with labour diversification as a riskreduction strategy in Central America, Africa, South Asia and Mexico . This movement is often followed by remittances . However, the same economic losses can also undermine household resources and savings, limiting mobility and compounding peopl... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.2 The impacts of climatic drivers on migration are highly context-specific and interact with social, political geopolitical and economic drivers . Specific climate events and conditions cause migration to increase, decrease or flow in new directions . One of the main pathways for climate induced migration is thr... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.6.4 Immobility in the context of climatic risk reflects both vulnerability and lack of agency, but is also a deliberate choice . Deliberate or voluntary, immobility represents an assertion of the importance of culture, livelihood and sense of place. Planned relocations by governments of settlements and populations... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8.1 Globally, urban populations grew by more than 397 million people between 2015 and 2020, with more than 90% of this growth taking place in less developed regions. The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability has been in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller to medium urban centres in low- and middle... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Approximately 1.8 billion people reside in regions classified as having low vulnerability. Global concentrations of high vulnerability are emerging in transboundary areas encompassing more than one country as a result of interlinked issues concerning health, poverty, migration, conflict, gender inequality, inequity, ed... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8 Cities and settlements have continued to grow at rapid rates and remain crucial both as concentrated sites of increased exposure to risk and increasing vulnerability and as sites of action on climate change . More people and key assets are exposed to climate-induced impacts, and loss and damage in cities, settl... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7.2 Climate change is impacting Indigenous Peoples' ways of life , cultural and linguistic diversity , food security and health and well-being . Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of communities to climate change . Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recogn... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.7.4 Climate variability and extremes are associated with more prolonged conflict through food price spikes, food and water insecurity, loss of income and loss of livelihoods , with more consistent evidence for lowintensity organised violence within countries than for major or international armed conflict . Compare... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
already experiencing severe compounding impacts, including from sea level rise and climate variability . Coastal cities are disproportionately affected by interacting, cascading and dimate-compounding climate and ocean-driven impacts, in part because of the exposure of multiple assets, economic activities and large pop... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.1 Economic losses of climate change arise from adverse impacts on inputs, such as crop yields , water availability and outdoor labour productivity due to heat stress . Greater economic losses are observed for sectors with high direct climate exposure, including regional losses to agriculture, forestry, fisherie... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9 The effects of climate change impacts have been observed across economic sectors, although the magnitude of the damage varies by sector and by region . Recent extreme weather and climate-induced events have been associated with large costs through damaged property, infrastructure and supply chain disruptions, al... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.8.4 Infrastructure systems provide critical services to individuals, society and the economy in both urban and rural areas; their availability and reliability directly or indirectly influence the attainment of all SDGs . Due to the connectivity of infrastructure systems, climate impacts, such as with thawing perma... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.2 A growing range of economic and non-economic losses has been detected and attributed to climate extremes and slow-onset events under observed increases in global temperatures in both low- and high-income countries . Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, droughts and severe fluvial floods, have red... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.1 Near-term warming will continue to cause plants and animals to alter their timing of seasonal events and to move their geographic ranges . Risks escalate with additional near-term warming in all regions and domains . Without urgent and deep emissions reductions, some species and ecosystems, especially those i... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
This section identifies future impacts and risks under different degrees of climate change. As a result, 127 key risks have been found across regions and sectors. These are integrated as eight overarching risks which relate to low-lying coastal systems; terrestrial and ocean ecosystems; critical physical infrastructur... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.2 Risks to ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience are projected to escalate with every tenth of a degree increase in global warming . Beginning at 1.5°C warming, natural adaptation faces hard limits, driving high risks of biodiversity decline, mortality, species extinction and loss of related livelihood... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.4 Current planning and budgeting practices have given insufficient consideration to climate impacts and projected risks, placing more assets and people in regions with current and projected climate hazards . Existing adaptation has prevented greater economic losses , yet adaptation gaps remain due to limited fin... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.B.9.3 Economic livelihoods that are more climate sensitive have been disproportionately degraded by climate change . Climate-sensitive livelihoods are more concentrated in regions that have higher socioeconomic vulnerabilities and lower adaptive capacities, exacerbating existing inequalities . Extreme events have al... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
for percentage of species at very high risk of extinction are 9% at 1.5°C, 10% at 2 °C, 12% at 3°C, 13% at 4°C and 15% at 5°C , with the likely range of estimates having a maximum of 14% at 1.5°C and rising to a maximum of 48% at 5°C. Extinction risks are higher for species in biodiversity hotspots , reaching 24% of sp... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.4 Changes induced by climate change in the physiology, biomass, structure and extent of ecosystems will determine their future carbon storage capacity . In terrestrial ecosystems, the fertilisation effects of high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on carbon uptake will be increasingly saturated and limited by warmi... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2 Cumulative stressors and extreme events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency and will accelerate projected climate-driven shifts in ecosystems and loss of the services they provide to people . These processes will exacerbate both stress on systems already at risk from climate impacts and non-cli... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.1. Ecosystem integrity is threatened by the positive feedback between direct human impacts and climate change . In the case of the Amazon forest, this could lead to large-scale ecological transformations and shifts from a closed, wet forest into a drier and lower-biomass vegetation . If these pressures are not ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.1.3 Damage and degradation of ecosystems exacerbate the projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity . Space for nature is shrinking as large areas of forest are lost to deforestation , peat draining and agricultural expansion, land reclamation and protection structures in urban and coastal settlements . Cu... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
to exceed that of reef growth by 2050, absent adaptation. In response to heatwaves, bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef is projected to occur annually if warming increases above 2.0°C, resulting in widespread decline and loss of structural integrity . Global warming of 3.0°C-3.5°C increases the likelihood of extreme an... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.1 Climate change will increasingly add pressure on terrestrial food production systems with every increment of warming . Some current global crop and livestock areas will become climatically unsuitable depending on the emissions scenario . Compared to 1.5°C global warming level, 2°C global warming level will eve... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.3 The ability of natural ecosystems to provide carbon storage and sequestration is increasingly impacted by heat, wildfire, droughts, loss and degradation of vegetation from land use and other impacts . Limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, could reduce projected permafrost CO, loss... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.2.2 Pests, weeds and disease occurrence and distribution are projected to increase with global warming, amplified by climate change induced extreme events , with negative consequences for ecosystem health, food security, human health and livelihoods . Invasive plant species are predicted to expand both in latitude... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3 Climate change will increasingly add pressure on food production systems, undermining food security . With every increment of warming, exposure to climate hazards will grow substantially , and adverse impacts on all food sectors will become prevalent, further stressing food security . Regional disparity in risks... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.4 Climate change is projected to increase malnutrition through reduced nutritional quality, access to balanced food and inequality . Increased CO₂ concentrations promote crop growth and yield but reduce the density of important nutrients in some crops with projected increases in undernutrition and micronutrient... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
are estimated to increase nutrition-related diseases and the number of undernourished people by 2050, affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people , particularly among low-income households in low- and middle-income countries in subSaharan Africa, South Asia and Central America , for example, between 8 million und... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
decrease by 5.7% ± 4.1% and 15.5% 8.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSPS-8.5 respectively by 2080-2099 relative to 1995-2014 , affecting food provisioning, revenue value and distribution Catch composition will change regionally, and the vulnerability of fishers will partially depend on their ability to move, diversify and levera... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity . Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
Examples of regional key risks. Risks identified are of at least medium confidence level Key risks are identified based on the magnitude of adverse consequences ; likelihood of adverse consequences; temporal characteristics of the risk; and ability to respond to the risk, e.g., by adaptation. The full set of 127 asses... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The Reasons for Concem framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five broad categories. Diagrams are shown for each RFC, assuming low to no adaptation . However, the transition to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. Undetectable risk level ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.3 Projected changes in the water cycle will impact various ecosystem services . By 2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected in 42% to 79% of the world's watersheds, causing negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems . Increased wildfire, combined with soil erosion due to deforestation... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.2 Projected cryosphere changes will negatively impact water security and livelihoods, with higher severity of risks at higher levels of global warming . Glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw and decline in snow cover are projected to continue beyond the 21st century . Many lowelevation and small glaciers around the... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.4 Drought risks and related societal damage are projected to increase with every degree of warming . Under RCP6.0 and SSP2, the population that is projected to be exposed to extreme to exceptional low total water storage will reach up to 7% over the 21st century . Under RCP8.5, aridity zones could expand by one-... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.5 Climate change will further increase pressures on those terrestrial ecosystem services which support global food production systems . Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollination as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness will be d... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.3.6 Climate change will compromise food safety through multiple pathways . Higher temperatures and humidity will expand the risk of aflatoxin contamination into higherlatitude regions . More frequent and intense flood events and increased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination . Aquatic food safe... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5 Coastal risks will increase by at least one order of magnitude over the 21st century due to committed sea level rise impacting ecosystems, people, livelihoods, infrastructure, food security, cultural and natural heritage and climate mitigation at the coast. Concentrated in cities and settlements by the sea, thes... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
areas of northern South America, the Mediterranean, western China and high latitudes in North America and Eurasia, the frequency of extreme agricultural droughts is projected to be 150% to 200% more likely at 2°C and over 200% more likely at 4°C . Above 2°C, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought are proj... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.5 Flood risks and societal damages are projected to increase with every increment of global warming . The projected increase in precipitation intensity will increase rain-generated local flooding . Direct flood damage is projected to increase by four to five times at 4°C compared to 1.5°C . A higher sea level w... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5.3 Under all climate and socioeconomic scenarios, lowlying cities and settlements, small islands, Arctic communities, remote Indigenous communities and deltaic communities will face severe disruption by 2100, and as early as 2050 in many cases . Large numbers of people are at risk in Asia, Africa and Europe, whil... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.4.6 Projected water cycle changes will impact agriculture, energy production and urban water uses . Agricultural water use will increase globally as a consequence of population increase and dietary changes, as well as increased water requirements due to climate change . Groundwater recharge in some semiarid region... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.5.1 Under all emissions scenarios, coastal wetlands will likely face high risk from sea level rise in the mid-term , with substantial losses before 2100. These risks will be compounded where coastal development prevents upshore migration of habitats or where terrestrial sediment inputs are limited and tidal ranges... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
associated development to sea level rise is high, increasing risks, and is concentrated in and around coastal cities and settlements . High population growth and urbanisation in low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure to sea level rise in the coming decades . By 2030, 108- 116 million pe... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.3 Increased heat-related mortality and morbidity are projected globally . Globally, temperaturerelated mortality is projected to increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation . Tens of thousands of additional deaths are projected under moderate and high global warming scenarios, particularly in north, we... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6 Climate change will increase the number of deaths and the global burden of non-communicable and infectious diseases . Over nine million climate-related deaths per year are projected by the end of the century, under a high emissions scenario and accounting for population growth, economic development and adaptatio... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
The population at risk in coastal cities and settlements from a 100- year coastal flood increases by approx. 20% if the global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to current levels, doubles at 0.75 m and triples at 1.4 m, assuming present-day population and protection height . For example, in Europe, coastal flood ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.1 Future global burdens of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions will depend on emissions and adaptation pathways and the efficacy of public health systems, interventions and sanitation . Projections under mid-range emissions scenarios show an additional 250,000 deaths per year by 2050 due to malaria, heat,... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.2 Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on well-being and to further threaten mental health . Children and adolescents, particularly girls, as well as people with existing mental, physical and medical challenges, are particularly at risk . Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
confidence). Changes in wave dimate superimposed on sea level rise will significantly increase coastal flooding and erosion of low-lying coastal and reef islands . The frequency, extent and duration of coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050 , unless coastal and marine ecosystems are able to naturally a... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
TS.C.6.5 Vector-borne disease transmission is projected to expand to higher latitudes and altitudes, and the duration of seasonal transmission risk is projected to increase , with the greatest risk under high emissions scenarios. Dengue vector ranges will increase in North America, Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa u... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
the risk of food-borne disease outbreaks, including Salmonella and Campylobacter infections . Warming supports the growth and geographical expansion of toxigenic fungi in crops and potentially toxic marine and freshwater algae . Food safety risks in fisheries and aquaculture are projected through harmful algal blooms ... | IPCC | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | IPCC Report | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf |
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