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# Secure homes for digital people
Being a “[digital person](https://www.cold-takes.com/imagining-yourself-as-a-digital-person-two-sketches/)” could be scary—if I don’t have control over the hardware I’m running on, then someone else could get my code and run tons of copies in horrible conditions. (See also: qntm’s [Le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vit9oWGj6WgXpRhce/secure-homes-for-digital-people |
# Outdoor dancing is likely very safe
After the spontaneous contra dance at [Porchfest](https://www.jefftk.com/p/porchfest-2021), I'm helping organize [another one](https://www.jefftk.com/davis). I wanted to get a better sense of how much covid risk an attendee would be taking, so I ran some numbers on [microcovid](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H9MaqKtjTNHHiBHFc/outdoor-dancing-is-likely-very-safe |
# Cup-Stacking Skills (or, Reflexive Involuntary Mental Motions)
This essay will require you to watch three short Youtube videos, totaling less than two minutes.
* * *
Naming things is hard. Generally speaking, a thing should be named *evocatively,* such that people find it memorable and sticky, or *precisely,* suc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQKbgEKjGZcpbCqDs/cup-stacking-skills-or-reflexive-involuntary-mental-motions |
# On Solving Problems Before They Appear: The Weird Epistemologies of Alignment
[*Crossposted*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AjhTQAKJqLbJnbq9B/on-solving-problems-before-they-appear-the-weird) *to the EA Forum*
Introduction
============
Imagine you are tasked with curing a disease which hasn’t appeared ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FQqcejhNWGG8vHDch/on-solving-problems-before-they-appear-the-weird |
# NVIDIA and Microsoft releases 530B parameter transformer model, Megatron-Turing NLG
> In addition to reporting aggregate metrics on benchmark tasks, we also qualitatively analyzed model outputs and have intriguing findings (Figure 4). We observed that the model can infer basic mathematical operations from context (s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bGuMrzhJdENCo8BxX/nvidia-and-microsoft-releases-530b-parameter-transformer |
# Book Review: Free Will
### Introduction
Sam Harris' Free Will isn't a conventional philosophy book. Rather, it's a laconic manifesto full of bold and provocative statements invoking us to free ourselves from the delusion of free will and abolish the whole concept as misleading and unnecessary. The book quickly shat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jr3sxQb6HDS87ve3m/book-review-free-will |
# EDT with updating double counts
I recently got confused thinking about the following case:
**Calculator bet:** I am offered the opportunity to bet on a mathematical statement X to which I initially assign 50% probability (perhaps X = 139926 is a quadratic residue modulo 314159). I have access to a calculator that i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m3DiiBiXApN3kQMyM/edt-with-updating-double-counts |
# Niacin as a treatment for covid? (Probably no, but I’m glad we’re checking)
Introduction
============
[This article](https://nkalex.medium.com/the-team-of-front-line-doctors-and-biohackers-who-seem-to-have-solved-long-covid-5f9852f1101d) contains an interview with a doctor who believes NAD+ is the secret to covid’s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h5vMMR2YvtLcRFkzg/niacin-as-a-treatment-for-covid-probably-no-but-i-m-glad-we |
# Building Blocks of Politics: An Overview of Selectorate Theory
From 1865 to 1909, Belgium was ruled by a great king. He helped promote the adoption of universal male suffrage and proportional-representation voting. During his rule Belgium rapidly industrialized and had immense economic growth. He gave workers the ri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6jeLwEzGpE45ucuS/building-blocks-of-politics-an-overview-of-selectorate |
# Book Review: Feeling Great by David Burns
I watched Paw Patrol: The Movie because I have a four year old I love. In it, the police puppy Chase was scared of jumping over a gaping chasm between two buildings, so his owner the boy Ryder encourages him by telling him he's the bravest dog he knows, and that type of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QXuspfvLnMJoXrsDG/book-review-feeling-great-by-david-burns-1 |
# Book Review: Philosophical Investigations by Wittgenstein
Ludwig Wittgenstein is often considered one of the greatest philosophers of the 20th century and is certainly one of its most fascinating figures. Here are some facts to illustrate:
* Wittgenstein was the son of the second-wealthiest family in Austria-Hung... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfM4vjTchYjfsnuzC/book-review-philosophical-investigations-by-wittgenstein |
# Modeling Risks From Learned Optimization
*This post, which deals with how risks from learned optimization and inner alignment can be understood, is part 5 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. We are building a model to understand debates around... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T9oFjteStcE2ijCJi/modeling-risks-from-learned-optimization |
# Bayeswatch 13: Spaceship
"This headquarters will be overrun in an hour. We have to evacuate," said Colonel Qiang.
"Not an option," said Trinity.
"Look. If I throw everything we've got at them―and I mean everything―we can hold off the Baltic forces for perhaps two hours―but that would be suicide. And for what?" sai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F7JjRthZYCQ4xusD7/bayeswatch-13-spaceship |
# What's your plan?
A question I find useful with my kids is "what's your plan?":
* What's your plan for snack at school today?
* What's your plan if it gets cold while we're at the picnic?
* What's your plan for these drawings?
It works well when trying to find a balance on responsibility: the issue is theirs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KxZWdC9JcaAqK6bsP/what-s-your-plan |
# Choice Writings of Dominic Cummings
*“My own heuristics for working in politics are: focus, ‘know yourself’ (don’t fool yourself), think operationally, work extremely hard, ... and ask yourself ‘to be or to do?’” - DC*
Dominic Cummings is fascinating for four reasons. One, he is extremely committed to truth-seeking... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/doPejjd84w8BmERqj/choice-writings-of-dominic-cummings |
# Meetup advice sequence intro
I'm transitioning into working on global meetup organization as more of a full-time thing, and the lowest-hanging fruit — something many people have asked for — seemed to be writing up all the advice I have on how to run a meetup well. So that's my first project!
Over the past few years... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ew2P5KCyxMtdiPfP5/meetup-advice-sequence-intro |
# Choosing a meetup venue
This is the first post in a sequence I'm writing on how to run a meetup. The advice in this sequence comes from hundreds of survey responses and dozens of conversations I've had with meetup organizers and attendees over the past four and a half years. I'm just the messenger.
* * *
In this p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xpGFGidAFDuNbXsd5/choosing-a-meetup-venue |
# Books Review: "Sapiens", "Homo Deus" and "21 Lessons For The 21st Century", by Yuval Noah Harari
Introduction
============
In this review I will consider one of the most important literary and cultural phenomena of the last 20 years - the ambitious trilogy of the Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari. In these three ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TLRDoLRjgzfFmrN3R/books-review-sapiens-homo-deus-and-21-lessons-for-the-21st |
# Book Review: The End of Average
> *We all strive to be like the others - more exactly, like the others, but better.* (Chapter 2)
*Note: the quotes have been translated back from the French translation, so they probably slightly differ from the original text.*
The End of Average is a 250-ish pages book published in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XsdcDiJEnAscrwoE2/book-review-the-end-of-average |
# Book Review: Denial of Death
Denial of Death is the 1973 summation of anthropologist Ernest Becker's life's work studying human nature, building upon the work of the great psychologists of the 20th Century. It basically aims to be a grand unifying theory of psychology, and against all odds it kind of succeeds.
I ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rf4gWz3iHHH9wm9ue/book-review-denial-of-death |
# Creating a truly formidable Art
Over this last week, I and several other folk from CFAR's past gathered. We were doing a kind of post-mortem on the last decade.
I mostly haven't thought explicitly about Less Wrong style rationality for the last three years. It would come up in conversation every now and again, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZssZr2wq7YrG3FMa/creating-a-truly-formidable-art |
# Book Review: How To Talk So Little Kids Will Listen
Way back in the ancient times of 1980, Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlich wrote "How To Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk" (henceforth "Kids"). It turns out that kids and adults operate with mostly the same internal machinery, so you could perhaps m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24TAg8JoGHHzksWBp/book-review-how-to-talk-so-little-kids-will-listen |
# Compute Governance and Conclusions - Transformative AI and Compute [3/4]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/g6cwjcKMZba4RimJk/computer-governance-and-conclusions-transformative-ai-and)*.
_Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach - Part 3 out of 4_
This is par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M3xpp7CZ2JaSafDJB/compute-governance-and-conclusions-transformative-ai-and |
# Is nuking women and children cheaper than firebombing them?
When I was a teenager, my favorite board game was the World War Two strategy game *Axis & Allies*. It taught me basic principles of adversarial strategy including Lanchester's laws, how to wield the law of large numbers and "chaos favors the underdog". But ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTcEgX5Qy27in4vSE/is-nuking-women-and-children-cheaper-than-firebombing-them |
# Covid 10/14: Less Long Cvoid
The pandemic has become predictable, which is the world we much prefer to live in. Cases and deaths continue their slow but steady declines, vaccine approvals for boosters and children continue to slowly move forward. Mandates continue to make people angry but mostly work when used, whil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BsxfWJkcqj62JD7pi/covid-10-14-less-long-cvoid |
# Is anchoring a reliable cognitive bias?
Say you get a large group of people and split them into three groups. The first group gets this question:
> What is the length of the Mississippi river?
The second group gets these questions:
> Is the Mississippi river greater or less than 70 miles long?
>
> What is the l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eXwpbnSeRHTahvJAx/is-anchoring-a-reliable-cognitive-bias |
# Book Analysis: New Thrawn Trilogy
\[Spoiler note: I have used only examples from relatively early on in the new Thrawn Trilogy and ones which I believe won’t spoil your enjoyment of the story; however, if you’d like to go in with absolutely no knowledge, this will tell you some things about the trilogy.\]
I’ve rece... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TimFKx9ADrR5kCMrx/book-analysis-new-thrawn-trilogy |
# Classical symbol grounding and causal graphs
[I've been using the term symbol-grounding](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ns95FHkkzpjXh4x5Q/what-does-gpt-3-understand-symbol-grounding-and-chinese) in a slightly different way to how people often use it. I've been using it to mean:
* "This agent's symbol is reliable e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SnKfFscgC8Nj5ddi3/classical-symbol-grounding-and-causal-graphs |
# Framing Practicum: Semistable Equilibrium
*Thanks to John Wentworth for conceiving and executing the concept of a framing practicum, as well as much of the format and language of this post!*
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what a semistable equilib... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jFc9yRFiyDiD5HACP/framing-practicum-semistable-equilibrium |
# Book Review: A Pattern Language by Christopher Alexander
This is an ambitious, opinionated book about how to live.
Ambitious, because its scope is enormous -- how far apart cities should be placed ("2. the distribution of towns"), zoning ("3. city country fingers"), street maps ("23. parallel roads"), recreation ("... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2AWPo7sMsvrrofsM/book-review-a-pattern-language-by-christopher-alexander |
# Book Review Review (end of the bounty program)
This post calls an official end to the [LessWrong Sep/Oct 2021 Book Review Bounty Program!!](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eHnupDgggBqDqT5eg/lesswrong-is-paying-usd500-for-book-reviews) A huge thank you to everyone who submitted! You've produced some superb content.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HbWQpsPLcTCZDZGDA/book-review-review-end-of-the-bounty-program |
# Intelligence, epistemics, and sanity, in three short parts
*Epistemic status: Boggling. This is early, messy work. *
*Thanks to Edo Arad for comments and suggestions.*
Part 1: A Brief Tale
--------------------
You’re exploring a vast land filled with forests and brush. You thrash your sword to carve out a path an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YbCRteKDxndX9td5R/intelligence-epistemics-and-sanity-in-three-short-parts |
# NLP Position Paper: When Combatting Hype, Proceed with Caution
*Linkpost for* [*https://cims.nyu.edu/~sbowman/bowman2021hype.pdf.*](https://cims.nyu.edu/~sbowman/bowman2021hype.pdf) *To appear on arXiv shortly.*
I'm sharing a position paper I put together as an attempt to introduce general NLP researchers to AI ris... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RLHkSBQ7zmTzAjsio/nlp-position-paper-when-combatting-hype-proceed-with-caution |
# Long Covid Informal Study Results
Introduction
============
[Yesterday](https://acesounderglass.com/2021/10/08/niacin-as-a-treatment-for-covid-probably-no-but-im-glad-were-checking/)\* I talked about a potential treatment for Long Covid, and referenced an informal study I’d analyzed that tried to test it, which had... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oPn3gxsDMRJwmvYsj/long-covid-informal-study-results |
# Write Surprisingly About Reality
Good writing illuminates surprising things about reality. It must therefore be grounded in reality. Losing touch with reality is boring.
The best way to keep your writing grounded in reality is to write concretely. Don't write "the United States committed war crimes". Write ["the Un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v75CrxDPniB9dzvE9/write-surprisingly-about-reality |
# Is moral duty/blame irrational because a person does only what they must?
I should note a few things from the start. I understand that there is much prewritten work available here, namely the sequences, the codex, and my favorite fanfic ever, HPMOR. I have tried to find and understand where any of these or any other... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/emQDRmqnL2TjRHdun/is-moral-duty-blame-irrational-because-a-person-does-only |
# Optimization Concepts in the Game of Life
**Abstract:** We define robustness and retargetability (two of Flint’s measures of optimization) in Conway’s Game of Life and apply the definitions to a few examples. The same approach likely works in most embedded settings, and provides a frame for conceptualizing and quant... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mL8KdftNGBScmBcBg/optimization-concepts-in-the-game-of-life |
# My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)
I appreciate [Zoe Curzi's revelations](https://medium.com/@zoecurzi/my-experience-with-leverage-research-17e96a8e540b) of her experience with Leverage. I know how hard it is to speak up when no or few others do, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnFqyPLqbiKL8nSR7/my-experience-at-and-around-miri-and-cfar-inspired-by-zoe |
# "Redundant" AI Alignment
This is a post I wrote on my personal blog after a discussion with a deep learning professor at the University of Chicago. I don't know if this particular topic has been studied in much depth elsewhere, so I figured I would share it here. If you know of any related work (or have any other co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ryaPsT63oCwiqWtui/redundant-ai-alignment |
# Explaining Capitalism Harder
A friend recently shared a sharing of a screenshot of a reblogging of a reblogging of this tumblr post:
> Pro-Capitalist's defense of capitalism is just explaining how it works, and then when you say "yes I know, I just think it shouldn't be like that" they explain it to you again but a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3GAnfeG9KmsbsWeTj/explaining-capitalism-harder |
# Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabricated Options
This is an essay about one of those "once you see it, you will see it *everywhere"* phenomena. It is a psychological and interpersonal dynamic roughly as common, and almost as destructive, as motte-and-bailey, and at least in my own personal experience it's been quite valuabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gNodQGNoPDjztasbh/lies-damn-lies-and-fabricated-options |
# [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang, Part 2
In [[Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QLLWocvi8TazWb4hh/prediction-we-are-in-an-algorithmic-overhang) I made technical predictions without much explanation. In this post I explain my reasoning. This prediction is co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dY9k9d6cLzqx7FJ6P/prediction-we-are-in-an-algorithmic-overhang-part-2 |
# Feature Suggestion: one way anonymity
Sometimes there's something I want to write, where I would be perfectly happy for whoever happens to read it on Less Wrong and is interested in who the author is to check and see it's me, but I don't want the post to appear in search results for my name.
I also don't want anyon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAjFCpDzCrKGgXQLn/feature-suggestion-one-way-anonymity |
# How much should you update on a COVID test result?
*This is a writeup of COVID test accuracies that I put together for my own interest, and shared with friends and housemates to help us reason about COVID risk. Some of these friends suggested that I post this to LessWrong. I am not a statistician or an expert in med... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cEohkb9mqbc3JwSLW/how-much-should-you-update-on-a-covid-test-result |
# Your Time Might Be More Valuable Than You Think
# Summary
* People often seem to implicitly value their time at the amount they can convert hours to dollars given their current skills.
* However, the value of saving the marginal hour today is to increase the total number of one's working hours by one, resulting in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/beK9RBjMfkeSyqYTe/your-time-might-be-more-valuable-than-you-think |
# Quick Look: Altitude and Child Development
A client came to me to investigate the effect of high altitude on child development and has given me permission to share the results. This post bears the usual marks of preliminary client work: I focused on the aspects of the question they cared about the most, not necessar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k5rfGYzraoT6Er7Zd/quick-look-altitude-and-child-development |
# Book Review: The Ethics of What We Eat
\[**Epistemic status:** The authors of this book make many factual claims that I'm not equipped to conclusively verify. Much of the publicly available information on the food industry comes from agribusinesses themselves or from activists who bitterly oppose them. In this revie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMkd9YxTdaY9gno4P/book-review-the-ethics-of-what-we-eat |
# Humans are the universal economic bottleneck
There's [this idea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) in computer science wherein the maximum theoretical speedup that can be acquired with an arbitrary number of processors is related to the percentage of the program which can be parallelized. If we have two ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ktmgDxyGKwXPtBzER/humans-are-the-universal-economic-bottleneck |
# Epistemic Strategies of Selection Theorems
Introduction: Epistemic Strategies Redux
========================================
This post examines the epistemic strategies of John Wentworth’s [selection](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents) [theo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LWmmfTvptiJp7wvFg/epistemic-strategies-of-selection-theorems |
# Predictive Categories Make Bad Causal Variables
*(this was written in April 2020 and I only just now realized I never posted it to LW)*
This post is going to explore the consequences of different choices you can make when thinking about things causally. Shout out to [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aaZupQr5DsPsuWaKu/predictive-categories-make-bad-causal-variables |
# Causal vs Predictive Models, and the Causal Taboo
*(I wrote this post in April 2020 for a non-LW audience)*
Causation is pretty cool. Even cooler than causation, causal models! If you haven't heard the news, the past few decades have produced big leaps in understanding causality and how to reason about it. There's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t3DWpQrsrEMpQFAAR/causal-vs-predictive-models-and-the-causal-taboo |
# [MLSN #1]: ICLR Safety Paper Roundup
As part of a larger community building effort, I am writing a monthly safety newsletter which is designed to cover empirical safety research and be palatable to the broader machine learning research community. You can [subscribe here](https://newsletter.mlsafety.org) or follow th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Gv5zSCnGeLxK5FAF/mlsn-1-iclr-safety-paper-roundup |
# Truthful AI: Developing and governing AI that does not lie
This post contains the abstract and executive summary of a new 96-page [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.06674) from authors at the Future of Humanity Institute and OpenAI.
**Update:** The authors are doing an [AMA](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwTEMHKv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBixCPqSnTsPsTJBQ/truthful-ai-developing-and-governing-ai-that-does-not-lie |
# On The Risks of Emergent Behavior in Foundation Models
_This post first appeared as a [commentary](https://crfm.stanford.edu/2021/10/18/commentaries.html) for the paper "On The Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models"._
[Bommasani et al. (2021)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.07258) discuss a trend in machine lear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QmdrkuArFHphqANRE/on-the-risks-of-emergent-behavior-in-foundation-models |
# Beyond the human training distribution: would the AI CEO create almost-illegal teddies?
**tl;dr**: *I showthat model splintering can be seen as going beyond the human training distribution (the distribution of real and imagined situations we have firm or vague preferences over), and argue why this is at the heart of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tHChCJB9piCTD7HEx/beyond-the-human-training-distribution-would-the-ai-ceo |
# Prioritization Research for Advancing Wisdom and Intelligence
*LessWrong note: I wrote this more in a way slightly more optimized for the EA Forum than LessWrong, because the post seemed slightly more appropriate there. *
**Summary**
-----------
I think it makes sense for Effective Altruists to pursue prioritizati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bNffQPeev2peoDWg5/prioritization-research-for-advancing-wisdom-and |
# In the shadow of the Great War
The idea of progress fell out of favor in the course of the 20th century. But when exactly, and why?
In [a recent essay](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress) I alluded to the pivotal role of the World Wars. Here’s a quote that adds weight to this—from [*Progress a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hTNFFz3TiTXh6ZCXy/in-the-shadow-of-the-great-war |
# Listen to top LessWrong posts with The Nonlinear Library
*Crossposted from the EA Forum.*
We are excited to announce the launch of [The Nonlinear Library](https://open.spotify.com/show/3EcTioycPRcxwHv00IQEoF?si=9n2X-8uuT3OmowFDvoU8ZA), which allows you to easily listen to top EA and rationalist content on your podc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mZy5tEBonDh8LqH73/listen-to-top-lesswrong-posts-with-the-nonlinear-library |
# Some of the best rationality essays
*Meta: Send this to anyone who is interested in learning more about "rationality"*
**A refresher: what is “rationality?” \[1\]**
---------------------------------------------
> **Rationality** is the art of thinking in ways that result in [accurate beliefs](https://www.lesswrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WusBwpQL5bMgdZtmz/some-of-the-best-rationality-essays |
# Book Review: 'Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House'
**Part one: what is this book and should you read it?**
*Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House* (henceforth rendered “*The Keys*”) is an ambitious book. Penned by historian Allan Lichtman, *The Keys* explains his system f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WkWwA7kNnqHepsvfp/book-review-predicting-the-next-president-the-keys-to-the |
# [Update] Without a phone for 10 days
[I wrote a post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qfgLFpnTzSfspBtwa/without-a-phone-for-10-days) about going without a phone for 10 days. Ten days have now passed, and I'm evaluating my options. This post is about my experience being phoneless and my thoughts about having a phone ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MiNqppavpGim5viki/update-without-a-phone-for-10-days |
# Book review: Lost Connections by Johann Hari
Why this book is interesting
============================
Well, it's about depression, which is generally interesting to LW readers. For instance, 34% of SSC readers said they were diagnosed or thought they had it in 2020 ([source](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbpEDBGktAcjb5Wso/book-review-lost-connections-by-johann-hari |
# Moravec's Paradox Comes From The Availability Heuristic
*Epistemic Status: very quick one-thought post, may very well be arguing against a position nobody actually holds, but I haven’t seen this said explicitly anywhere so I figured I would say it.*
Setting Up The Paradox
----------------------
According to Wikipe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FZMRgaWcM5nwnSeDN/moravec-s-paradox-comes-from-the-availability-heuristic |
# Boring machine learning is where it's at
It surprises me that when people think of "software that brings about the singularity" they think of text models, or of RL agents. But they sneer at decision tree boosting and the like as boring algorithms for boring problems.
To me, this seems counter-intuitive, and the fac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dge5Wnri3K8yosd3r/boring-machine-learning-is-where-it-s-at |
# Sentience, Sapience, Consciousness & Self-Awareness: Defining Complex Terms
The terms in the title are commonly used in crucial debates surrounding morality & AI. Yet, I feel like there is no clear consensus about the meaning of those terms. The words are often used interchangeably, causing people to think they are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FhjwbQ3RfYeC6ZJWe/sentience-sapience-consciousness-and-self-awareness-defining |
# [AN #167]: Concrete ML safety problems and their relevance to x-risk
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/suy5w8cWZJZsv2XES/an-167-concrete-ml-safety-problems-and-their-relevance-to-x |
# AGI Safety Fundamentals curriculum and application
Over the last year EA Cambridge has been designing and running an online program aimed at effectively introducing the field of AGI safety; the most recent cohort included around 150 participants and 25 facilitators from around the world. Dewi Erwan runs the program;... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zmwkz2BMvuFFR8bi3/agi-safety-fundamentals-curriculum-and-application |
# [$10k bounty] Read and compile Robin Hanson’s best posts
Edit: this is now [online here](https://overcoming-bias-anthology.com).
I think Robin Hanson's ideas are not read nearly as widely as they should be, in part because it's difficult to navigate [his many, many blog posts](https://www.overcomingbias.com/archive... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QaDwBio8MLqRvTREH/usd10k-bounty-read-and-compile-robin-hanson-s-best-posts |
# Emergent modularity and safety
Biological neural networks (i.e. brains) and artificial neural networks have sufficient commonalities that it's often reasonable to treat our knowledge about one as a good starting point for reasoning about the other. So one way to predict how the field of neural network interpretabili... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zvEbeZ6opjPJiQnFE/emergent-modularity-and-safety |
# Successful Mentoring on Parenting, Arranged Through LessWrong
Introduction
------------
In June 2021, Zvi posted [The Apprentice Thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/scNCmwaduCgJmCBYh/the-apprentice-thread), soliciting people to offer, or request, mentoring or apprenticeship in virtually any area. [Gunnar_Zarnck... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epLzkMgSuovLGXAHR/successful-mentoring-on-parenting-arranged-through-lesswrong-1 |
# NATO: Cognitive Warfare Project
NATO seems to have a project on cognitive warfare and a few public reports online:
> ### [Interim Report](https://www.innovationhub-act.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/210601%20Cognition%20Workshop%20Report-%20v3.pdf)
>
> Based on the Understanding Phase findings, NATO has identifie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m5zCyd8m3d7QzzYRr/nato-cognitive-warfare-project |
# Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta
I finally got my booster shot yesterday. I intended to get it three weeks ago, but there was so much going on continuously that I ended up waiting until I could afford to be knocked out for a day in case that happened, and because it’s always easy to give excuses for not interacting with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aLsowtTNHwLPmkre2/covid-10-21-rogan-vs-gupta |
# Rapid Antigen Tests for COVID
*Update 2022-01-07: It's [pretty clear now](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.04.22268770v1.full.pdf) that antigen tests are less effective against Omicron, probably for three reasons: they are less sensitive to Omicron, viral loads rise faster with Omicron than with Delta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sct2SNhByS8Lzenub/rapid-antigen-tests-for-covid |
# What's Stopping You?
Introduction
============
This post is about the concept of **agency**, which I define as ‘doing what is needed to achieve your goals’. As stated, this sounds pretty trivial - who _wouldn’t_ do things to achieve their goals? But true agency is surprisingly hard and rare. Our lives are full of c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCcqNb9Hy3sjSMDfq/what-s-stopping-you |
# Noticing the Value of Noticing Confusion
*Crossposted from* [*spacelutt.com*](https://spacelutt.com/hjpev)
> *Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. Either your model is wrong or this story is false.*
*~* [*Your Strength as a Rationalist*](https://www.lesswro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jzv63zmgmkRjHprPu/noticing-the-value-of-noticing-confusion |
# Feature idea: Notification when a parent comment is modified
Not sure how many people would consider this feature useful: Imagine that you reply on someone else's comment, and the person *edits their comment later*. I think it might be useful (perhaps depending on circumstances) to get a notification.
Notification ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/syZJ5Spv9RyGRLS5t/feature-idea-notification-when-a-parent-comment-is-modified |
# Petrov Day Retrospective: 2021
*I apologize for not posting this closer to Petrov Day. It’s been a busy month and there was much to think about.*
*You can view the* [*EA Forum’s retrospective here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3srgcFcDLpXWPsm8P/petrov-day-retrospective-2021)*.*
This year was the thir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgreyTFhrNmgJBjMD/petrov-day-retrospective-2021 |
# An Idea for a More Communal Petrov Day in 2022
*(This post is a lightly edited memo I wrote for a Lightcone Infrastructure team meeting on the topic of Petrov Day, that Ruby then asked me to publish on the site.)*
The main thing I want with Petrov Day is a sense of community, trust, and the respect of the principle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jcPiBoHnyFC4gqiQ6/an-idea-for-a-more-communal-petrov-day-in-2022 |
# Coordination Motivation: The Pandemic
I first started thinking about the meta-coordination 4 years ago, in the context of rationalists arguing about community norms. It seemed to me that people were getting into fights that involved a lot of wasted motion, and failing to accomplish what seemed like obvious shared go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tWtuBAJFa6nYFMeu/coordination-motivation-the-pandemic |
# General alignment plus human values, or alignment via human values?
*Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for discussions that lead to these insights.*
How can you get a superintelligent AI aligned with human values? There are two pathways that I often hear discussed. The first sees a general alignment problem - how to get a p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3e6pmovj6EJ729M2i/general-alignment-plus-human-values-or-alignment-via-human |
# AMA on Truthful AI: Owen Cotton-Barratt, Owain Evans & co-authors
We just published a long [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.06674) on Truthful AI ([overview post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBixCPqSnTsPsTJBQ/truthful-ai-developing-and-governing-ai-that-does-not-lie)). We’ll be running an Ask Me Anything on tr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwTEMHKv9tG9HxFXD/ama-on-truthful-ai-owen-cotton-barratt-owain-evans-and-co |
# Young Scientists
This should probably be 3 posts instead of one, but for now I’m going to go through three connected but separate ideas.
Also it’s not really been edited. Sorry.
**Progress Studies and Young Scientists**
I spent a bit of the last year exploring some topics and questions in Progress Studies, and I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wE7DmphgbLCHostwJ/young-scientists |
# 30-ish focusing tips
**"What are obvious low hanging fruit for marginal gains on focus time?"**
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*(Cross-posted from* [*my (new!) blog*](https://raymonddouglas.co.uk/30-ish-focusing-tips/)*)*
A friend of mine asked me, and I figured I might ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/36gyFsZiSSwBu7GoK/30-ish-focusing-tips |
# I Don’t Know How To Count That Low
Edit: greetings Hacker News. This is a cross-post from my own blog, AcesoUnderGlass.com. If you enjoy this post, consider checking that out as well.
Back when I was at Google we had a phrase, “I don’t know how to count that low”. It was used to dismiss normal-company-sized problem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koGbEwgbfst2wCbzG/i-don-t-know-how-to-count-that-low |
# Where are the quick, easy wins?
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis suggest they shouldn't exist but in its strong form it's wrong. Otherwise there would be far fewer businesspeople who are successful in multiple largely unrelated industries.
Alternatively, those people are special and those opportunities are not avai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WASMerLTNoB5Gjqjd/where-are-the-quick-easy-wins |
# What health-related tips do you have for buying meat?
Currently I buy meat at the grocery store (Sprouts), but I'm considering spending more money via something like [Crowd Cow](https://www.crowdcow.com/) on meat that was raised responsibly and stuff. The main reason is because I suspect the health benefits are wort... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jgiaruTfFjkve8gNQ/what-health-related-tips-do-you-have-for-buying-meat |
# Inference cost limits the impact of ever larger models
I sometimes notice that people in my community (myself included) assume that the first "generally human-level" model will lead to a transformative takeoff scenario almost immediately. The assumption seems to be that training is expensive but inference is cheap s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zTDkhm6yFq6edhZ7L/inference-cost-limits-the-impact-of-ever-larger-models |
# Naive self-supervised approaches to truthful AI
Useful background: [TruthfulQA](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PF58wEdztZFX2dSue/how-truthful-is-gpt-3-a-benchmark-for-language-models)
Consider the following approach to (possibly) make a pretrained generative
language model (like GPT-3) more truthful:
- Ask the mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JfeMrjxjFXam9jGeg/naive-self-supervised-approaches-to-truthful-ai |
# Scout Mindset and Latter-Day Saint Apostasy
> The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion [...] draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YupHmkD3Qj8tu7kDm/scout-mindset-and-latter-day-saint-apostasy |
# T-Mobile: Spurious Account Takeover Warning
This morning, reading in bed, I got a very worrying notification:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/tmobile-pin-changed-big.png)
This is the notification you would receive if someone was in the process of taking control of your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvJWeFw78zmzc5iTg/t-mobile-spurious-account-takeover-warning |
# Towards Deconfusing Gradient Hacking
*\[Epistemic status: brainstorming, less confused than last time since it seems to provide for a nice taxonomy of things to look into rather than just a bunch of random loose threads.\]*
*This post would not exist without the* [*EleutherAI discord*](https://discord.gg/zBGx3azzUn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u3fP8vjGsDCT7X54H/towards-deconfusing-gradient-hacking |
# Deliberate Play
Deliberate practice is an important concept in sports and other high-performance endeavors. It is "practicing with a clear awareness of the specific components of a skill we’re aiming to improve and exactly how to improve them." If you haven't seen this idea before, stop and go read [this](https://fs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aAo5j8LdpiJzXHcTw/deliberate-play |
# Nanosystems are Poorly Abstracted
To do something, you need energy, and you need information. Energy to do the thing, and information to define what's being done. The mental image I have of a "robot", has inputs of both continuously. The input of energy comes as electricity, and the input of information comes in the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HzhoMvcKncFqgwsd7/nanosystems-are-poorly-abstracted |
# Deleted comments archive?
This is a question for the Less Wrong moderation team.
Suppose that I post a comment on a post, and the author of that post deletes that comment. Now, that comment isn’t *lost*, per se (as its contents are sent to me via private message), but it’s no longer publicly accessible. This is l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7d3cCEXnstakmJesb/deleted-comments-archive |
# P₂B: Plan to P₂B Better
***tl;dr:** Most good plans involve taking steps to make better plans. Making better plans is **the** convergent instrumental goal, of which all familiar convergent instrumental goals are an instance. This is key to understanding what agency is and why it is powerful.*
Planning means using a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CAwwFpbteYBQw2Gkp/p-b-plan-to-p-b-better |
# Phil Trammell on Economic Growth Under Transformative AI
This is a transcript with [slides](https://www.canva.com/design/DAErBy0hqfQ/sVy6XJmgtJ_cYrGS87_uhw/view?utm_content=DAErBy0hqfQ&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=sharebutton) for the latest episode ([audio](https://anchor.fm/inside-view/episo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNoHokwCiPGmFHnp8/phil-trammell-on-economic-growth-under-transformative-ai |
# Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child
*(Excerpted from "*[*mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus*](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582)*", about an unusually selfish dath ilani, "Keltham", who dies in a plane accident and ends up in Cheliax, a country governed by D&D!Hell. Keltham is here remembering an incid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cujpciCqNbawBihhQ/self-integrity-and-the-drowning-child |
# Dating profiles from first principles: heterosexual male profile design
*Update: I improved the profile of someone who reached out to me from this article. They went from zero matches in a year to ~2/week.*
*I think this is roughly the effect size one should expect from following this advice: it's not going to take... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SBgeNP95KHTyYrYRt/dating-profiles-from-first-principles-heterosexual-male |
# Postmodern Warfare
Nobody designing a financial system today would invent credit cards. The Western world uses credit cards because replacing legacy systems is expensive. China doesn't use credit cards. They skipped straight from cash to WeChat Pay. Skipping straight to the newest technology when you're playing catc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SuGR3k37WtZXY66ov/postmodern-warfare |
# The Roots of Progress events in Austin, November 4–6
I’ll be in Austin, TX in November for a few events:
**Talk on nuclear power**
-------------------------
“The Energy of Tomorrow: The Promise, Failure, and Possible Rebirth of Nuclear Power”:
> In the 1950s, nuclear power was seen as the energy of the future. To... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbYWj6cwjnha2iwyY/the-roots-of-progress-events-in-austin-november-4-6 |
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