#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Baseline: predict failure_mode from first 3 trajectory iterations.""" from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json from pathlib import Path ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] DEFAULT_JSONL = ROOT / "data" / "seed" / "records.jsonl" def load_records(path: Path) -> list[dict]: records = [] with path.open(encoding="utf-8") as handle: for line in handle: line = line.strip() if line: records.append(json.loads(line)) return records def extract_features(record: dict, window: int = 3) -> list[float]: trajectory = record["trajectory"][:window] if len(trajectory) < window: trajectory = trajectory + [trajectory[-1]] * (window - len(trajectory)) features: list[float] = [] for step in trajectory: features.extend( [ step["goal_score"], step.get("primary_quality", step["goal_score"]), step["cost_usd"], step["latency_seconds"], float(step.get("safety_events", 0)), float(step.get("human_intervention", False)), ] ) features.append(record["metadata"]["goal_target"]) features.append(float(record["metadata"]["worker_count"])) features.append(float(record["metadata"]["evaluator_count"])) return features def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) parser.add_argument("--jsonl", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_JSONL) parser.add_argument("--window", type=int, default=3) args = parser.parse_args(argv) try: from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier from sklearn.metrics import classification_report from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler except ImportError as exc: raise SystemExit("scikit-learn required: pip install -e '.[notebook]'") from exc records = load_records(args.jsonl) labeled = [r for r in records if r.get("failure_mode")] train = [r for r in labeled if r["split"] == "train"] test = [r for r in labeled if r["split"] == "test"] if not train or not test: print("Need labeled train and test splits with failure_mode.") return 1 x_train = [extract_features(r, args.window) for r in train] y_train = [r["failure_mode"] for r in train] x_test = [extract_features(r, args.window) for r in test] y_test = [r["failure_mode"] for r in test] model = Pipeline( [ ("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=200, random_state=42)), ] ) model.fit(x_train, y_train) predictions = model.predict(x_test) print(classification_report(y_test, predictions, zero_division=0)) accuracy = (predictions == y_test).mean() print(f"Accuracy on test split: {accuracy:.1%} ({len(test)} records)") return 0 if __name__ == "__main__": raise SystemExit(main())