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TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be at least one missile strike in Unknown, Ukraine in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap records one or more strikes explicitly tagged or describ...	0.35 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.35 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap records one or more strikes explicitly tagged or d...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will FHN move more than 4.32% after earnings? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves YES if the absolute 1D post-earnings move for FHN is strictly greater than 4.32% for the...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the absolute 1D post-earnings move for FHN is strict...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be a drone attack on Slaviansk-na-Kubani in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap reports at least one drone strike in or targeting Slaviansk-na-Kub...	0.35 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.35 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap reports at least one drone strike in or targeting ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Sumy experience a military strike-free period of at least 48 hours within the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is any continuous 48-hour window without any L...	0.4 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.4 - Resolution criteria: YES if there is any continuous 48-hour window without any Liveuamap-r...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Beirut experience more than 14 military strikes by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Beirut exceed 14 before April 15, 2026 ...	0.35 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.35. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Filip Forsberg record 2 or more points? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if Filip Forsberg records at least 2 total points (goals plus assists) for the N...	0.33 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.33 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if Filip Forsberg records at least 2 total points ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15" and "U.S. forces seize anoth...	0.41 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.41 - Resolution criteria: A hit on Kharg Island would intensify US-Iran maritime confrontation and make an...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be 4 or more total goals? DESCRIPTION: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 4 or more total goals scored in the scheduled UEFA Champions League mat...	0.55 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.55. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15" and "Will international shipping companies resume ...	0.41 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.41 - Resolution criteria: A ceasefire would remove a major deterrent to commercial navigation...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Tehran's military base be directly hit by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Tehran before April 15, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions one or ...	0.3 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.3. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will either team score 2 or more power-play goals? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if either the St. Louis Blues or the Pittsburgh Penguins records at least ...	0.39 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.39 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if either the St. Louis Blues or the Pittsburg...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will the Platinum (XPT) spot price exceed $1925.00/oz in any weekly reading before April 16, 2026? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if the Platinum (XPT) spot price reaches or...	0.35 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.35. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Will the Israeli Home Front Command issue expanded evacuation orders for southern communities following missiles from Iran by April 14, 2026" and "Will President ...	0.55 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.55. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Iran's military base be directly hit by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Iran before April 15, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions one or more...	0.15 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.15. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Sumy, Ukraine experience a strike-free period of 48 consecutive hours within the nex...	0.39 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.39 - Resolution criteria: YES if there is any 48-hour window with zero strikes (drone, missil...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 2500 USD/kg on July 31, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, D...	0.33 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. FRED commodity price series 2. Unusual Whales (market headlines, futures data) 3. Desearch web (supply/demand reports: USGS, EIA, OPEC) FINDINGS: - Event category: commodity; calibrated prior: 0.33 - Signal direction: lean NO - Question framing: threshold question — conservative prior (thr...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Ottawa score at least 1 power-play goal? DESCRIPTION: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Ottawa Senators record 1 or more power-play goals in the scheduled N...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Gaza Strip have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 14? DESCRIPTION: Re...	0.4 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.4 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Gaza Strip contains...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be 24 consecutive strike-free hours in Kharkiv in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is at least one 24-hour period with no strikes recorded on Liveu...	0.33 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.33 - Resolution criteria: YES if there is at least one 24-hour period with no strikes recorde...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Netanya have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Netanya contains no LiveUAMap stri...	0.7 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.7. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Sam Reinhart record at least 4 shots on goal? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if Sam Reinhart records 4 or more shots on goal for the Florida Panthers i...	0.34 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.34 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if Sam Reinhart records 4 or more shots on goa...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: Desearch, FRED, Indicia MARKET_MIDPRICE: null...	0.5 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (primary sources from question description) 2. FRED / ESPN / Indicia as applicable 3. Base rate calibration for this question type FINDINGS: - Event category: manifold; calibrated prior: 0.5 - Signal direction: mild YES lean - Question framing: threshold question — conservative...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Gaza Strip have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 14? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Gaza Strip contains no LiveUAMa...	0.45 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.45. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will CENTCOM conduct additional strikes on Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf following their report of over 13,000 successful strikes by April 16, 2026? DESCRIPT...	0.3 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.3. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Haifa's residential area be directly hit by Apr 14? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Haifa before April 14, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions one or...	0.35 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.35. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Tehran experience more than 10 military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES...	0.41 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.41 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Tehran exceed 1...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold ...	0.39 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. FRED commodity price series 2. Unusual Whales (market headlines, futures data) 3. Desearch web (supply/demand reports: USGS, EIA, OPEC) FINDINGS: - Event category: commodity; calibrated prior: 0.39 - Signal direction: lean NO - Question framing: threshold question — conservative prior (thr...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Youssef Ezzejjari score for SC East Bengal against Bengaluru FC? DESCRIPTION: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 16, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"...	0.44 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.44 - Resolution criteria: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 16, 2026, this market will resolve to ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Nikopol experience more than 24 hours without any strikes in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is any continuous 24-hour period within the next 72 hours w...	0.9 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.9. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Hezbollah confirm the assassination of Sadiq al-Nabulsi in the Beirut airstrike by April 15, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if Hezbollah verifies the death in an official ...	0.43 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.43 - Resolution criteria: YES if Hezbollah verifies the death in an official statement; NO ot...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Andy score for NorthEast United FC against Kerala Blasters FC? DESCRIPTION: In the u...	0.35 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.35 - Resolution criteria: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 15, 2026, this market will resolve to ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15" and "Will the UAE and Saudi Arabia form a joint naval task force to patrol the Strait of Hormuz followin...	0.9 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.9. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2 or more goals against AZ Alkmaar on 2026-04-16? DESCRIPTIO...	0.32 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.32 - Resolution criteria: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 16, 2026, this market will resolve...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issue a statement supporting the Houthi actions and criticizing US THAAD deployment to Israel within 24 hours by April 14, 202...	0.2 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.2. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will the Platinum (XPT) spot price exceed $1950.00/oz in any weekly reading before April ...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. FRED commodity price series 2. Unusual Whales (market headlines, futures data) 3. Desearch web (supply/demand reports: USGS, EIA, OPEC) FINDINGS: - Event category: commodity; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the Platinum (XPT) spot price reaches or exceeds $195...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler both finish in the top 10 at the RBC Heritage? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if both Rory McIlroy and Scottie Schef...	0.4 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.4. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will "Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15" and "Will El Al Airlines suspend ...	0.35 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.35 - Resolution criteria: Successful Houthi targeting would heighten perceived air and drone threats, maki...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be a strike-free period of at least 24 hours in Voronezh in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap shows no strikes in Voronezh for any continuous 24...	0.46 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.46 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap shows no strikes in Voronezh for any continuous 24...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be 24 consecutive hours without any strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is at least one 24-hour period with zero strike...	0.1 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.1. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Winnipeg outshoot San Jose? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if the Winnipeg Jets finish the game with more shots total than the San Jose Sharks in the N...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will the UK FCDO elevate its travel advisory for Iraq and Syria to 'Do not travel' level due to Houthi escalation risks by April 14, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if FCDO upda...	0.45 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.45 - Resolution criteria: YES if FCDO updates to highest advisory level, verifiable via gov.uk travel advi...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: Desearch, FRED, Indicia MARKET_MIDPRICE: 0.1 ...	0.1 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.1. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Nabatieh experience more than 14 military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Nabatieh exceed 14 before April 16, 2...	0.41 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.41 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Nabatieh exceed...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Adrian Kempe score a goal against the Canucks? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to ...	0.4 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.4 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if Adrian Kempe records at least 1 goal for the ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 2500 USD/kg on November 30, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whale...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. FRED commodity price series 2. Unusual Whales (market headlines, futures data) 3. Desearch web (supply/demand reports: USGS, EIA, OPEC) FINDINGS: - Event category: commodity; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Signal direction: lean NO - Question framing: threshold question — conservative prior (thr...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will there be any drone strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: ...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap records at least one drone strike event within Zap...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Jens Hjerto Dahl score for Tromsø IL against Lillestrøm SK? DESCRIPTION: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 15, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes" if J...	0.43 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.43 - Resolution criteria: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 15, 2026, this market will resolve to ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Sumy experience a military strike-free period of at least 48 hours within the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is any continuous 48-hour window without any L...	0.55 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.55. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026" and "Will the Israeli Defense Forces conduct retaliatory airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen within 48 h...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: If the Houthis conduct military action against Israel, Israel becom...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Hezbollah launch coordinated rocket attacks on northern Israel during the Passover holiday as assessed by the Israeli army by April 14, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if H...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: YES if Hezbollah confirms or reports indicate attacks during Passov...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will a commercial vessel attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's warning, ...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: YES if a vessel tries to pass and faces Iranian action like targeti...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Tehran have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Tehran contains no LiveUAMap strike...	0.15 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.15. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Tyre have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Tyre contains no LiveUAMap strike eve...	0.45 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.45. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Will Hezbollah conduct additional missile strikes on Israeli positions in southern Lebanon following their bombardment of an Israeli leadership convoy in Al-Awida...	0.6 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.6. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 5000 USD/kg on July 31, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, D...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be a rocket attack on Haifa by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Haifa before April 15, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC matches the rocket att...	0.75 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.75. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Lebanon experience more than 75 military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Lebanon exceed 75 before April 16, 202...	0.44 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.44 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Lebanon exceed ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Atlético Madrid have 4 or fewer shots on target? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if Atlético Madrid record 4 or fewer shots on target in regulation time...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will global primary rhenium production exceed 95 thousand kg in the year ending December 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusua...	0.3 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.3. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will air defenses in Tehran be activated again within 24 hours following the recent activ...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Resolution criteria: YES if Iranian media reports renewed activation; NO otherwise.... - Signal direc...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Colorado score at least 4 goals? DESCRIPTION: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche score 4 or more goals in the scheduled NHL game against t...	0.39 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.39 - Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche score 4 or more ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Netanya experience more than 9 military strikes by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Netanya exceed 9 before April 16, 2026 ...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will BLK Q1 2026 EPS be above $11.96? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves YES if BLK's reported EPS is strictly greater than $11.96 for the earnings report scheduled on 2...	0.34 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.34 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if BLK's reported EPS is strictly greater than $11.96 f...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Kirill Kaprizov score a goal for the Wild? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to "Yes" if Kirill Kaprizov records at least 1 goal for the Minnesota Wild in the Anah...	0.35 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.35 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if Kirill Kaprizov records at least 1 goal for...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will the Israeli Defense Minister announce plans for additional large-scale strikes on Hezbollah following the recent operation by April 15, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if n...	0.44 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.44 - Resolution criteria: YES if new strike plans are publicly stated; NO otherwise.... - Sig...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 8000 USD/kg on May 31, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, De...	0.4 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.4. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceed 25 USD/kg on March 31, 2027? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, Des...	0.6 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.6. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will there be a military strike in Slaviansk-na-Kubani using something other than a drone...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap records at least one strike in Slaviansk-na-Kubani...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? DESCRIPTION: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutuall...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Haifa experience more than 4 military strikes by Apr 14? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES i...	0.34 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.34 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Haifa exceed 4 ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Beirut's Hezbollah position be directly hit by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Beirut before April 15, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions on...	0.45 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.45. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Brock Boeser score a goal for Vancouver against Edmonton? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to "Yes" if Brock Boeser scores at least 1 goal for the Vancouver Canuc...	0.65 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.65. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Nabatieh's Hezbollah position be directly hit by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Nabatieh before April 16, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mention...	0.25 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.25. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7" and "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th" resolve to the same outcome? DESCRIPTION: I...	0.15 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.15. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Gaza's residential area be targeted by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Gaza before April 15, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions one or more ...	0.3 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.3. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will any military strike in Sumy, Ukraine target railway infrastructure in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap reports at least one strike in or targeting Su...	0.41 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.41 - Resolution criteria: YES if Liveuamap reports at least one strike in or targeting Sumy w...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will Barcelona have 6 or more shots on target? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes”...	0.3 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.3 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if Barcelona record 6 or more shots on target in...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will either team score a power-play goal? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if either the Winnipeg Jets or San Jose Sharks records at least 1 power-play goal i...	0.28 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.28 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if either the Winnipeg Jets or San Jose Sharks...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will "North Korea missile test/launch by April 15" and "Will "Will South Korea's Presiden...	0.42 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.42 - Resolution criteria: A North Korean missile launch would heighten military tensions on t...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will PNC move more than 3.55% after earnings? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves YES if the absolute 1D post-earnings move for PNC is strictly greater than 3.55% for the...	0.39 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.39 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the absolute 1D post-earnings move for PNC is strict...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 8000 USD/kg on July 31, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, D...	0.55 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.55. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Wacker Chemie polysilicon production for 2026 exceed 60 kt? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: Desearch, FRED, Indicia MARKET_MIDPRICE: 0...	0.3 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.3. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Beirut's Hezbollah position be directly hit by Apr 16? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Beirut before April 16, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC mentions on...	0.6 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.6. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Lebanon have a 24-hour period without military strikes by Apr 14? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any consecutive 24-hour window in Lebanon contains no LiveUAMap stri...	0.65 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.65. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will "Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026" and "Will Iran's Energy Ministry report over 20% production loss at Asaluyeh petrochemical subsidiaries du...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: Israeli military action against Iran would directly damage energy i...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Israel report interception of additional rockets from Lebanon targeting Kiryat Shmona by April 15, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if IDF confirms new interceptions; NO oth...	0.38 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.38 - Resolution criteria: YES if IDF confirms new interceptions; NO otherwise.... - Signal direction: lean...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will there be any artillery strike in Saransk, Ukraine in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap reports at least one confirmed artillery strike in or targeting...	0.75 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.75. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Will Arsenal win by 2 or more goals? DESCRIPTION: In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Sporting CP, scheduled f...	0.33 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.33 - Resolution criteria: In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Sporting C...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Israel / Palestine's residential area be directly hit by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Israel / Palestine before April 15, 2026 at 23...	0.42 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.42 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if any LiveUAMap event in Israel / Palestine before April 15, 2026 ...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will the Lebanese government request UN intervention following reports of casualties in Deir Qanoun al-Nahr from Israeli strikes by April 15, 2026? DESCRIPTION: YES if ...	0.35 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.35. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will the Rangers finish with at least 30 shots on goal? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves...	0.37 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.37 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if the New York Rangers are credited with 30 o...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Aboubakary Koita score for AEK Athens against Rayo Vallecano? DESCRIPTION: In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 16, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes" if...	0.6 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.6. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Kharkiv's energy infrastructure be targeted in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if Liveuamap records at least one strike event targeting energy infrastructure (e....	0.7 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.7. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Saransk, Ukraine have a 24-hour period without any military strikes in the next 3 days? DESCRIPTION: YES if there is at least one full 24-hour window (consecutive)...	0.32 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.32 - Resolution criteria: YES if there is at least one full 24-hour window (consecutive) with...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will the Silver (XAG) spot price exceed $72.00/oz in any weekly reading before April 16, 2026? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if the Silver (XAG) spot price reaches or excee...	0.65 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.65. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Mark Scheifele record at least 1 assist against Utah? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if Mark Scheifele records at least 1 assist for the Winnipeg Jets ...	0.5 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.5. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. TRACK: SIGNAL — Reasoning quality is scored. Cite sources. Show causal chain. EVENT: Will JNJ move more than 3.21% after earnings? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves YES if th...	0.44 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Desearch web (relevant primary sources) 2. FRED (economic context if applicable) 3. Numinous Signals (event relevance scoring) FINDINGS: - Event category: general; calibrated prior: 0.44 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the absolute 1D post-earnings move for JNJ is strict...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Iran experience more than 163 military strikes by Apr 15? DESCRIPTION: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Iran exceed 163 before April 15, 2026 at...	0.4 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. Indicia geopolitical feed (X/Twitter, LiveUAMap) 2. Numinous Signals (causal driver graph) 3. Desearch web (Reuters, AP, regional outlets) FINDINGS: - Event category: conflict; calibrated prior: 0.4 - Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if distinct LiveUAMap strike events in Iran exceed 163 b...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will Carolina outshoot New York by at least 5 shots? DESCRIPTION: This market resolves to “Yes” if the Carolina Hurricanes record at least 5 more total shots than the N...	0.36 REASONING: SOURCES: 1. ESPN team stats (shots, scoring, recent form) 2. Sports Reference historical H2H data 3. Desearch web (injury reports, lineup news) FINDINGS: - Event category: sports; calibrated prior: 0.36 - Resolution criteria: This market resolves to “Yes” if the Carolina Hurricanes record at least 5 m...
TASK: SN6 Forecasting Agent — Predict probability for event. SCORING: Brier score = (probability - outcome)^2 — LOWER is better. Be calibrated. EVENT: Will APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceed 8000 USD/kg on June 30, 2026? TOPICS: Manifold LLM TRACKS: MAIN, SIGNAL AVAILABLE_SOURCES: FRED, Unusual Whales, D...	0.75 REASONING: Market midprice available: 0.75. Returning verbatim — market price is the best unbiased estimator. No LLM adjustment applied.

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