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e1384076-d435-4448-8c06-77fa00ef7c69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Roots of Progress's 2022 in review
2022 was another big year for me and for The Roots of Progress. This is my annual review—the one post a year (other than timely announcements) where I go meta and give an update on this project. If you want stuff like this more frequently, you can support me on Patreon or make a ... |
8a0f236b-cc02-47ef-8c7c-7de0fb74e639 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge is not just mutual information
Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome financial support to make further posts like this possible.
Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.
----------------------------------------
This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation of knowledge. Ou... |
adf56550-c1a6-4e7c-92ce-a34220c977fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #89]: A unifying formalism for preference learning algorithms
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replying to this email.
A... |
93c7d7cd-97b4-405c-b551-f09cacbd0c8b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Ngo and Yudkowsky on scientific reasoning and pivotal acts
This is a transcript of a conversation between Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky, facilitated by Nate Soares (and with some comments from Carl Shulman). This transcript continues the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://intelligence.org/late-2021-miri-conver... |
ce690724-3791-4dcb-a958-995179259866 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Probability that other architectures will scale as well as Transformers?
GPT-1, 2, and 3 have shown impressive scaling properties. How likely is it that, in the next five years, many other architectures will also be shown to get substantially better as they get bigger? EDIT I am open to discussion of better definition... |
3b7fb733-2c17-4f0e-be7c-2b2e330c313d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A survey on transfer learning
1
A Survey on Transfer Learning
Sinno Jialin Pan and Qiang Y ang Fellow, IEEE
Abstract —A major assumption in many machine learning and data mining algorithms is that the training and future data must be
in the same feature space and have the same distribution. However, in many real-world... |
de1c23df-55ba-466d-9be0-d71ce0e10f9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Archives
The last straw was finding out that the manually-generated (why manual? I don't understand!) "All Articles" article is more than a year out of date. The auto-generated list of Eliezer's Overcoming Bias posts isn't out of date if you only want the posts that were once on Overcoming Bias, but why wou... |
09b352ed-e654-474c-8acb-668d5ca34b89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Truth, On God, and On Faith (religious (obviously)) (Atheist material for believers instead of other atheists/ attempted use of a spoonful of sugar)
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308f75c5-2615-4f3d-81df-243d97c74503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dwarves & D.Sci: Data Fortress
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
STORY (skippable)
You stare out the window of your office in the dwarven capital of Gildedpeaks, the ... |
89caf01d-86cd-4369-ba50-619b2987a0b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [SEE EDIT] No, *You* Need to Write Clearer
**This post is aimed solely at people in AI alignment/safety.**
*EDIT 2 May 2023: In an ~~ironic~~ unfortunate twist, this article itself has several problems relating to clarity. Oops. The big points I want to make obvious at the top:*
* *Criticizing a piece of writing's... |
a0430792-7863-41f4-a8f7-d6531dd86d64 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 9: The orthogonality of intelligence and goals
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index ... |
2d6125e7-0e2c-4506-be27-bfeb918869a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Art of the Artificial: Insights from 'Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach'
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
‘‘Most people won't agree to kill themselves for 50 million dollars."Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig
Foreword
One of the ... |
6c53d1f5-d228-4253-9f89-760dfcd49aca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A scheme for safely handling a mixture of good and bad predictors
Paul has written about an open problem: can we use active learning to get a good predictor, if all we have is a mixture of a good predictor and some possibly bad predictors? I'd like to propose a refinement to the scheme.
A simplified version of Paul's... |
1c69d693-e113-45f2-a18e-88aeebe6f0dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncovering Deceptive Tendencies in Language Models: A Simulated Company AI Assistant
Abstract:
> We study the tendency of AI systems to deceive by constructing a realistic simulation setting of a company AI assistant. The simulated company employees provide tasks for the assistant to complete, these tasks spanning wr... |
050dca2f-872d-406f-9ee0-e9b0921712d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generalized Heat Engine
I’d like to be able to apply more of the tools of statistical mechanics and thermodynamics outside the context of physics. For some pieces, that’s pretty straightforward - a large chunk of statistical mechanics is just information theory, and that’s already a flourishing standalone field which ... |
c6997785-14c5-48bd-aae1-f442658cd759 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are committed truthseekers lonelier?
People of a truthseeking bent - rationalists, unbiased scientists, inquisitive non-ideologues - are these types of people likely to be lonelier on average? Those who hold a particular set of positions, tastes, perspectives, worldviews, or preferences to be part of a group, rather t... |
1389a1ed-b1d4-4c71-ba29-9780c0097fd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two-boxing, smoking and chewing gum in Medical Newcomb problems
I am currently learning about the basics of decision theory, most of which is common knowledge on LW. I have a question, related to why EDT is said not to work.
Consider the following Newcomblike problem: A study shows that most people who two-box in New... |
aa744ac8-9232-47f7-8067-ac44c32a256c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NASA scientist finds evidence of alien life [link]
http://journalofcosmology.com/Life100.html
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/03/aliens-riding-meteorites-arsenic-redux-or-something-new/
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2293643 |
a7a8c280-5d5a-48a6-8f39-72968d050a3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much do variations in diet quality determine individual productivity?
A few days ago Jim Babcock stated
> I care about nutrition because I believe it has a very large, very underappreciated impact on individual productivity. Low quality diets make people tired and depressed, so they don't get anything done.
Ther... |
beaba962-bf55-4fdf-9623-432049881a8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs Do Not Think Step-by-step In Implicit Reasoning
Author: Yijiong Yu.
Abstract:
> It has been well-known that Chain-of-Thought can remarkably enhance LLMs’ performance on complex tasks. However, because it also introduces slower inference speeds and higher computational costs, many researches have attempted to us... |
72226289-353c-4ed6-a604-867a16abcfb5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Motivated value selection for artificial agents
Motivated Value Selection for Artificial Agents
Stuart Armstrong
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University
stuart.armstrong@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
Coding values (or preferences) directly into an artificial agent
is a very challenging task, while value selection ... |
f7f6a0ed-f816-405e-8ca3-d6064b175eb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Premortem as communication device (e.g. in relationship)
Epistemic status: My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship and we found it surprisingly helpful.
Summary
1. My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship.
2. The procedure is: define prompts; collect failures; indepen... |
1e5834f8-c534-4e85-b10b-93e147d03c77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | January 2017 Newsletter
| |
| --- |
|
Eliezer Yudkowsky’s new introductory talk on AI safety is out, in text and video forms: “[The AI Alignment Problem: Why It’s Hard, and Where to Start](https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/).” Other big news includes the release of vers... |
974bc491-bf75-4791-ae96-7480c50c30b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Clarifying "AI Alignment"
When I say an AI A is *aligned with* an operator H, I mean:
> *A is trying to do what H wants it to do.*
The “alignment problem” is the problem of building powerful AI systems that are aligned with their operators.
This is significantly narrower than some other definitions of the alignmen... |
de3e5e5a-970f-4410-976a-814a3dc6a899 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logics for Mind-Building Should Have Computational Meaning
The Workshop
Late in July I organized and held MIRIx Tel-Aviv with the goal of investigating the currently-open (to my knowledge) Friendly AI problem called "logical probability": the issue of assigning probabilities to formulas in a first-order proof system,... |
eec083b2-7ff0-462a-bf84-36fd678a5a6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Even if you have a nail, not all hammers are the same
(Related to Over-ensapsulation and Subtext is not invariant under linear transformation)
Between 2004 and 2007, Goran Bjelakovic et al. published 3 famous meta-analysis of vitamin supplements, concluding that vitamins don't help people but instead kill people. Th... |
d4268539-d611-4d32-b2b8-d73f56ee4a49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [~monthly thread]
tl;dr: Ask questions about AGI Safety as comments on this post, including ones you might otherwise worry seem dumb!
Asking beginner-level questions can be intimidating, but everyone starts out not knowing anything. If we want more people in th... |
8365dbb2-ce74-4f9d-91e6-c9a169ee133a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where does uncertainty come from?
Idealized rational agents are often discussed as operating in an uncertain environment, or as using probabilities to correctly reason anthropically (especially in MWI or Tegmark style multiverses). I believe that both of these sources of uncertainty are essential for a rational agent,... |
dc7d958f-34cf-4860-9a77-b3895631df3a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | 'Detrimental'
The opposite of [https://arbital.com/p/-3d9](https://arbital.com/p/-3d9). A [reserved term](https://arbital.com/p/9p) in [AGI alignment theory](https://arbital.com/p/2v) that acts as a speaker-dependent variable denoting whatever the speaker means by "bad" or "no, really actually bad" or "bad in the lon... |
bd8216f0-2ee7-4610-bc07-eb1498b16f13 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Some cruxes on impactful alternatives to AI policy work
*[Crossposted from Less Wrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJB82jKwgJE5NsWgT/some-cruxes-on-impactful-alternatives-to-ai-policy-work).*
[Ben Pace](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/ben-pace) and I (Richard Ngo) recently did a public double crux at th... |
eccddd97-d1d8-41ff-b4e5-792fd26e5942 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mech Interp Lacks Good Paradigms
Note: I wrote this post rather quickly as an exercise in sharing rough / unpolished thoughts. I am also not an expert on some of the things I've written about. If you spot mistakes or would like to point out missed work / perspectives, please feel free!
Note 2: I originally sent this... |
a4e966db-1384-43d5-91dc-0267a55e5c56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rigged reward learning
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
NOTE: What used to be called 'bias', is now called 'rigging', because 'bias' is very overloaded. The post has not yet been updated with the new terminology, however.
What are the biggest failure modes of reward learning agents?
The first failure... |
3a7279c8-4a34-4686-9c40-8ff8fe3bac40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Луна Лавгуд и Комната Тайн, Часть 4
Disclaimer: This is Kongo Landwalker's translation of lsusr's fiction Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 4 into russian.
----------------------------------------
Луна нашла на карте гостиную Когтеврана. Она поднялась в башню Когтеврана, а затем, казалось, ещё выше. Её... |
6aadc587-b0f9-4f8e-b696-fa40fcac3c3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We run the Center for Applied Rationality, AMA
CFAR recently launched its 2019 fundraiser, and to coincide with that, we wanted to give folks a chance to ask us about our mission, plans, and strategy. Ask any questions you like; we’ll respond to as many as we can from 10am PST on 12/20 until 10am PST the following day... |
298b095c-2091-4149-a1f0-1dd9d025e074 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attribution-based parameter decomposition for linear maps
TLDR: The simplicity loss currently used in APD (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E/attribution-based-parameter-decomposition) is not scale invariant. By modifying this loss so that it is, APD seems to behave better in some circumstances. Also, f... |
4544cd61-0a2a-40fd-afe3-8605a1e698a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solving for the optimal work-life balance with geometric rationality
In a recent post, Scott Garrabrant gave an application of geometric rationality to the problem of work-life balance. Here's the setup: part of you wants to try to make the world better (I'll be calling this your "altruistic part") and part of you wan... |
c1bad225-2256-4906-bd3b-a436e1f1c5e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Current AI Safety Roles for Software Engineers
[Note: Please make sure to see the comments for other, newer information]
I've had several conversations over the last few months with engineers who were trying to enter the field of AI safety. It became evident that I was giving pretty much the same advice to all of the... |
d5bb0848-64ce-4797-b6fb-fd126f633063 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why are probabilities represented as real numbers instead of rational numbers?
I have started going through Jaynes’ book on probability. In Chapter 1 (pg 17) he lists the basic desiderata for the theory. The first desiderata is that “Degrees of plausibility are represented by the real numbers”. I understand why we wan... |
2d34c27d-15da-4ccb-a43a-fd86492f64b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI: Altman Returns
As of this morning, the new board is in place and everything else at OpenAI is otherwise officially back to the way it was before.
Events seem to have gone as expected. If you have read my previous two posts on the OpenAI situation, nothing here should surprise you.
Still seems worthwhile to g... |
f22b65b3-82af-41e3-a1c2-33ec099a680e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good books for incoming college students?
My sister (and about 2.5 million other people) are headed to college in the fall.
I gave her a copy of Cal Newport's How to Win at College as a graduation gift, but given that her life is about to change more than it has in any of the past 14 years, one book probably isn't en... |
2016a369-3c17-4727-9d29-7dfb804e1628 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Phoenix, AZ: Stoicism and Visitors: 6 December 6:00PM
Discussion article for the meetup : Phoenix, AZ: Stoicism and Visitors: 5 December 6:00PM
WHEN: 06 December 2012 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1038 South Mill Avenue, Tempe, AZ
Jay will give a brief presentation on Stoicism and we will get to see some friend... |
240aae6d-5c6b-4435-94a9-10710ca5e1da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Creationism = High Carb? Or, The Devil Does Atkins
Based on the community's continuing interests in diet and religion, I'd like to point out this blog post by the coauthor of Protein Power, Michael Eades, wherein he suggests that biblical literalism tends toward a low-fat approach to nutrition over a low-carb p... |
b71a00b4-b56d-41ed-93ad-13eb6fc5b6c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scalable agent alignment via reward modeling: a research direction
1 Introduction
---------------
Games are a useful benchmark for research because progress is easily measurable. Atari games come with a score function that captures how well the agent is playing the game; board games or competitive multiplayer games... |
851add98-c397-495c-beaa-6a495a95c9d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you deal w/ Super Stimuli?
From neel.fun
I remember watching Youtube videos and thinking "This is the last video, I will quit after this". However, as soon as the video ends, my preferences would suddenly change to wanting to do one more!
Many of us understand this false dichotomy:
1. Quit mid-way through t... |
6c0262ab-07f3-4094-a85d-e228a7e7af50 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | 2016 International Symposium on Experimental Robotics
[]
[]
Volume 1
Springer Proceedings in Advanced Robotics
Series Editors
Bruno Siciliano
Università di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy
Oussama Khatib
Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
Editorial Advisory Board
Gianluca Antonelli, University o... |
05c195d3-8eec-4b08-9578-4382e7bd244c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking on the page
“Thinking on the page” is a handle that I’ve found useful in improving my writing (and my introspection more generally). When I write, for the most part, I’m trying to put something that I already feel is true into words. But when I think on the page, the words are getting ahead of my internal sen... |
2821cebf-6dd2-40e2-868d-67f7f4ad8e30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prioritizing Parental Sleep
Overall I've really enjoyed being a parent, but poor sleep has been the hardest part. At times we've both been so tired that we weren't able to think clearly about how to fix the problem, which can be very tricky. We've figured this out more over time, however, and sleep has improved with e... |
77f40d88-2df8-4e03-b157-9c845cfc35a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Rational number
The rational numbers are either whole numbers or fractions of whole numbers, like $0,$ $1$, $2$, $\frac{1}{2}$, $\frac{97}{3}$, $-17$, $\frac{-85}{1993},$ and so on. The [set](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) of rational numbers is written $\mathbb Q.$
[Irrational numbers](https://arbital.com/p/54z) like [$... |
dbeaf690-938a-459b-ac1b-d20a5e76021f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Review] Meta-Honesty (Ben Pace, Dec 2019)
[Edit: I'm going to re-write this at some point, I don't think I managed to say much of anything very clearly. I've removed the first section.]
The essay takes the same starting assumption as I do. Honesty is deadly important and something you work hard at. There are some ed... |
508331d4-63e6-4039-bdf5-c192c90f9ce0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confounded No Longer: Insights from 'All of Statistics'
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
> Using fancy tools like neural nets, boosting and support vector machines without understanding basic statistics is like doing brain surg... |
ec35bcb6-7b5e-4a79-acf7-b27a6dbbc786 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using the universal prior for logical uncertainty (retracted)
(I'm not sure about any of this)
(Yup! Vanessa Kowalski pointed out a crucial error, see her comment below. The idea about the universal prior picking up all computable regularities is unproved. I'm leaving the post as it was, but please read it as a histo... |
3b1b7b4a-4c5b-485d-b1d2-3edf194defa3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One night, without sleep
In memory of all those who fell and were not saved
(I normally have little regard for trigger warnings,
but on this occasion, imagine that my words are prefaced with every trigger warning ever)
A body, on a battlefield, maimed and bleeding;
terrible pain, staring at the sky,
left to die.
... |
790a8ee0-0b0b-46af-9eb0-db15cfd8ccbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boring & straightforward trauma explanation
I thought of this a couple years ago and figured it was so obvious that it wasn't worth posting about, but people are still discussing trauma endlessly, and I have not seen an explanation written anywhere, so here's this.
"Trauma" is a bad experience deemed anomalous. It me... |
d20ab53d-fbec-443d-81a7-b163ac7d9b8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “The Era of Experience” has an unsolved technical alignment problem
Every now and then, some AI luminaries
* (1) propose that the future of powerful AI will be reinforcement learning agents—an algorithm class that in many ways has more in common with MuZero (2019) than with LLMs; and
* (2) propose that the technica... |
4ba011f1-f281-44e0-a825-6a537f0295c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dennett's heterophenomenology
In an earlier comment, I conflated heterophenomenology in the general sense of taking introspective accounts as data to be explained rather than direct readouts of the truth, with Dennett's particular approach to explaining those data. So to correct myself, I say that it is Dennett, rath... |
4c8ac142-407a-4333-a1a6-3645ef7340d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Short essays on various things I've watched
Sometimes I write things in places that aren't here. Sometimes I think those things are worth preserving. Some of those things follow, with minor editing, mostly on the subject of various movies that I've watched. Also two stage musicals, one TV show, one short story, and on... |
e3b9f57d-97dd-44d3-9ecc-e88d95c80da2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Responsibility
Note: This is meant to be legible to high school students who are not LessWrong regulars.
> If you'd asked me in high school what the difference was between high school kids and adults, I'd have said it was that adults had to earn a living. Wrong. It's that adults take responsibility for themselve... |
c4128c09-1d81-42f9-a296-56f5b1ce99d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ultimate Sleeping Beauty Problem
I got into a heated debate a couple days ago with some of my (math grad student) colleagues about the Sleeping Beauty Problem. Out of this discussion came the following thought experiment:
Sleeping Beauty volunteers to undergo the following experiment and is told all of the follow... |
79f0325f-56a1-4ae4-a71d-28f2bd495641 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Can we simulate human evolution to create a somewhat aligned AGI?
Cross-post [from LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qdmfKbEaZeiZs3buq/can-we-simulate-human-evolution-to-create-a-somewhat-aligned).
*Epistemic status: less than 20% chance that this is a good idea. I've spent about 25 hours thinking about thi... |
47fb88f9-2775-45bd-9115-7e37baaf508c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tactical Nuclear Weapons Aren't Cost-Effective Compared to Precision Artillery
Epistemic status: there is probably a US Army analysis that does this much better.
Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) are often times portrayed as being significantly more effective than conventional artillery. My research indicates that t... |
edf1e81c-e079-4a10-8c03-2fa78ce28cef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: Solomonoff Induction Inspired Approach
This is post is part of the Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty series. This is about a failed attempt to satisfy the Benford test. I will not prove things about this approach. The only reason I am including this approach is because the fact that it doe... |
b5faf455-f949-496c-953a-06014d4a58e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benford Test with Gaps
In this post, I present a new desirable property in Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty. The property is the analog of satisfying the Benford test, but with a collection of undecidable sentences mixed in. I do not know of any algorithm that satisfies this property yet. I give a proof that a similar s... |
c9ca914a-2b67-4799-89de-9233457f41a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biased AI heuistics
Heuristics have a bad rep on Less Wrong, but some people are keen to point out how useful they can sometimes be. One major critique of the "Superintelligence" thesis, is that it presents an abstract, Bayesian view of intelligence that ignores the practicalities of bounded rationality.
This trend o... |
82afd83e-adbf-4345-9f94-62e08d952b73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding information cascades
Meta: Because we think understanding info cascades are important, we recently spent ~10 hours trying to figure out how to quantitatively model them, and have contributed our thinking as answers below. While we currently didn't have the time to continue exploring, we wanted to experim... |
0fb8c2de-b530-4e04-8ffd-5e3671fcae60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR website launched
The new Center for Applied Rationality website has launched! We'll be adding content as time goes by. Let us know if you find broken links, etc. |
a823fde5-6451-46c8-9453-08f7e434fa14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | ML Systems Will Have Weird Failure Modes
Previously, I've argued that future ML systems might exhibit [unfamiliar, emergent capabilities](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/1527e9dd-c48d-4941-9b14-4f7293318d5c/), and that thought experiments [provide one approach](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/a2d733a7-108a-4587-97... |
f05ca83c-4c95-4010-be34-ab9c4cd20c99 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
*Cross-posted to [LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WiXePTj7KeEycbiwK/survey-on-ai-existential-risk-scenarios)*.
Summary
=======
* In August 2020, we conducted an online survey of prominent AI safety and governance researchers. You can see a copy of the survey at [t... |
846198fa-75f7-4273-82bb-22152371f7e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zero-Knowledge Cooperation
A lot of ink has been spilled about how to get various decision algorithms to cooperate with each other. However, most approaches require the algorithm to provide some kind of information about itself to a potential cooperator.
Consider FDT, the hot new kid on the block. In order for FDT to... |
07f27ace-b671-42d7-a154-d5e1ea1802ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I don't think that the probability that AGI kills everyone is roughly 1 (but rather around 0.995).
Let
A = Ability to refuse to learn a certain thing.
B = Not wanting to be replaced by the next step in evolution.
D = Ability to build technology, manipulate others etc etc, in a way that kills all humans.
For ... |
c0c778e2-3bb3-4bbb-9f11-e9e0731f9905 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Clockmaker's Argument (But not Really)
First things first, the intention of this post is not to promote theism, deism or religion in any way, shape or form. I am rather gnostic on the atheism spectrum so that's really not something I intend.
Having said that, I am right up to here with weak arguments supporting G... |
6060df1e-0c20-4ea9-9f41-cb8890fbf268 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrongWiki User Pages Underutilized; Tag Proposal
I think the LessWrong user pages are underutilized. There isn't even a wiki pages describing them (or at least I can't find it, otherwise I would have linked it here).
The user pages are what is shown when you click on a user like you would do to see that users oth... |
b3c2e23c-c1ed-4dcd-872a-3ba2bd5cf415 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] - Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions
From a paper by Center for Technology and National Security Policy & National Defense University:
"Strong AI: Strong AI has been the holy grail of artificial intelligence resea... |
96b0f099-8d5f-4fd0-82b2-75028de45e2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | General AI Won't Want You To Fix its Code - Computerphile
So, before, we were talking about A.I. risk and A.I. safety, and
just trying to lay out in a very generalized sort of way how general artificial intelligence can be dangerous
and some of the type of problems it could cause
and just introducing the idea of A.I. ... |
22dd454d-94a3-4856-85a4-6dbd7b63b1fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omega's Idiot Brother, Epsilon
Epsilon walks up to you with two boxes, A and b, labeled in rather childish-looking handwriting written in crayon.
"In box A," he intones, sounding like he's trying to be foreboding, which might work better when he hits puberty, "I may or may not have placed a million of your human doll... |
6c875fcf-a8bc-4938-b507-4c22e06a2d87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Algorithmic tacit collusion
|
6c03f828-8a48-4cd4-805f-45a1d0499ff6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Studying and Part-time work/supplementary income
Hi Less Wrong,
I'd like to draw on you for some advice.
I'm about to undertake studies, but will need some supplementary income to attain my desired standard of living while doing so.
Part-time work could be attained quite easily, but is likely to take the form... |
827c84fd-41b4-4ae2-95f5-9f2799972390 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teaching a short class on Bayes' Theorem?
At my college, there's a week before Spring Semester each year in which anyone who wants to can teach a class on any subject, and students go to whatever ones they feel like. I'm thinking about teaching a class on Bayes' Theorem. It would be informal, one to two hours long, an... |
d7de5408-311c-46b5-9f98-c934863686fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Probing BERT’s priors with serial reproduction chains.
Probing BERT’s priors with serial reproduction chains
Takateru Yamakoshi1;2, Thomas L. Griffiths1, Robert D. Hawkins1
1Princeton University,2The University of Tokyo
{takateru,tomg,rdhawkins}@princeton.edu
Abstract
Sampling is a promising bottom-up method for
exposi... |
e71e4f64-0695-43f7-a4af-b57f47ad2915 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three ways that "Sufficiently optimized agents appear coherent" can be false
There has been a couple of recent posts suggesting that Eliezer Yudkowsky's Sufficiently optimized agents appear coherent thesis does not seem useful because it's vacuously true: one obvious way to formalize "coherent" implies that all agents... |
1077b626-1b77-460f-930f-cc5fcf5bc242 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Alchemy: Archmage Anachronos and the Supply Chain Issues
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
After talking with abstractapplic, I've stolen the June 7th scenario ... |
ccedadfc-e316-4625-ae7b-8fd6d676c133 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Patient Observation
When a person first begins to study naturalism with me, I say to them almost nothing that I’ve written in this sequence.
That might very well be a mistake; I might get better results if I knew some short combination of words that would cause them to correctly understand, intellectually, what we a... |
e043d115-8d27-4c3b-afb4-37d67fcc6e88 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Historic trends in particle accelerator performance
*Published Feb 7 2020*
None of particle energy, center-of-mass energy nor Lorentz factor achievable by particle accelerators appears to have undergone a discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates.
Details
-------
This case study is part... |
14666d53-704f-4588-9b17-a208f72929ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Comparative Analysis of Expected and Distributional Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
The distributional perspective, in which one models the distribution of returns from a state instead of only its expected value, was recently introduced by (?). The first distributional reinforcement learning... |
02586995-7c49-4384-a1dd-bc513e00e0f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice to new Doctors starting practice
Hi all,
Please read the Disclaimers at the end of the post first, if you're easily offended.
Generalists(general medicine):
1. Get extremely unbeatable at 20 Questions(rationality link). It'll help you make your initial diagnoses(ones based on questions about symptoms) f... |
712b8fcf-1313-43cb-9ef2-b08054c8f9a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | QACI: the problem of blob location, causality, and counterfactuals
QACI: the problem of blob location, causality, and counterfactuals
------------------------------------------------------------------
for [QACI](qaci.html), i intend to use pieces of data (constant-length raw bitstrings, or equivalently bounded natur... |
52b889c9-04ad-48bc-ae41-6128ead2a16a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is anyone else also getting more worried about hard takeoff AGI scenarios?
Hi, this is my first post and I apologize if this question is too subjective, in which case I'll take it down. Ok here goes:
I'm personally starting to feel an accelerating, slightly visceral sense of fear at the increasing pace of news a... |
2efdb49e-9014-44c2-b5fd-7a8fdae8e533 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | March 2012 Media Thread
There was a recent discussion considering the idea of a monthly Book (later expanded to movies, links, etc) thread. The poll was pretty unanimous that this was A Good Idea (tm). The past two threads have had a decent amount of activity, so let's keep going.
Post what you're reading, listening ... |
0618cecf-0dd1-4629-8761-b05776976aae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FAI FAQ draft: What is nanotechnology?
I invite your feedback on this snippet from the forthcoming Friendly AI FAQ. This one is an answer to the question "What is nanotechnology?" For references, see here.
_____
Nanotechnology is the study of materials and devices built at the scale of 1-100 nanometers (“nano-”... |
e320faea-9ceb-463d-908b-668078136773 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Mnosis
Introducing Mnosis
The Guild of the ROSE is proud to announce the beta launch of a new self-improvement tool: Mnosis.
> mne-, root. Mind, memory.
>
> Gnosis. Knowledge.
What is Mnosis? In a nutshell -- a magic deck of flashcards. Think of it as Anki for predefined subjects. Instead of manually cr... |
189eb501-5b98-4112-b928-fa27a0d3f078 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Likelihood Ratios
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Likelihood Ratios
WHEN: 06 June 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, June 6th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcom... |
21e77b75-5a52-4b86-a01c-5604ad417919 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philosophy Needs to Trust Your Rationality Even Though It Shouldn't
Part of the sequence: Rationality and Philosophy
> Philosophy is notable for the extent to which disagreements with respect to even those most basic questions persist among its most able practitioners, despite the fact that the arguments thought rele... |
75f5ee21-d18c-466d-85dc-59d8af46cc8c | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3390
In my last post , I argued that interaction between the human and the AI system was necessary in order for the AI system to “stay on track” as we encounter new and unforeseen changes to the environment. The most obvious implementation of this would be to have an AI system that keeps an estimate of the rew... |
a2303484-48f6-4a35-90ab-1e4d1f2701b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moving on from community living
After 7 years at Deep End (and 4 more years in other group houses before that), Janos and I have moved out to live near a school we like and some lovely parks. The life change is bittersweet - we will miss living with our friends, but also look forward to a logistically simpler life wit... |
dc221f1d-0b0e-437e-8b36-dd0ccf0dbef1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I've had it with those dark rumours about our culture rigorously suppressing opinions
You folks probably know how some posters around here, specifically Vladimir_M, often make statements to the effect of:
"There's an opinion on such-and-such topic that's so against the memeplex of Western culture, we can't even di... |
55fdab69-b08a-47d5-b5aa-93dbf54f1878 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Large Language Models Perform Latent Multi-Hop Reasoning without Exploiting Shortcuts?
Authors: Sohee Yang, Nora Kassner, Elena Gribovskaya, Sebastian Riedel, Mor Geva.
Abstract:
> We evaluate how well Large Language Models (LLMs) latently recall and compose facts to answer multi-hop queries like "In the year Sca... |
7c723e57-8d93-4963-94d6-2f9c30b9c4b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeing Red: Dissolving Mary's Room and Qualia
Essential Background: Dissolving the Question
How could we fully explain the difference between red and green to a colorblind person?
Well, we could of course draw the analogy between colors of the spectrum and tones of sound; have them learn which objects are typically... |
a0b47826-7a97-4778-a825-790be9abfe7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024
As I note in the third section, I will be attending LessOnline at month’s end at Lighthaven in Berkeley. If that is your kind of event, then consider going, and buy your ticket today before prices go up.
This month’s edition was an opportunity to finish off some things that got left out ... |
e733ff42-353b-4196-9526-c187bd38750f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | EleutherAI Interpretability Reading Group 220212: Interpreting across time
said uh
there's a couple people who are gonna
be
presenting today from introverts
from the interpreting across time
channel
and so i'm gonna start by giving a bit
of an overview of what we're what we're
up to and what we're hoping to
accomplish... |
22f8e81a-06b8-4e46-90dd-579aea868b65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Re: sub-reddits
A while back, I polled the community on the possibility of subreddits. Most people said they wanted them, and I said I'd investigate.
I talked to a couple of people and eventually ended up talking to Tricycle, the developers of this site. They told me about their own proposed solution to the community... |
0d174285-1ddd-483d-9293-f0faf6d31960 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shed Wall Plans
Last week I wrote about estimating whether insulation was worth it for our shed if we're going to use it as a home office. While I'm waiting for the carpenter to put a new roof on it, I'm thinking through what finishing the walls would look like.
The Facebook side of the discussion on the insulation p... |
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