sample_id string | source_dataset_id string | is_valid bool | question_text string | question_type string | prediction_date string | event_date string | date_close string | resolution_date string | resolution_criteria string | label string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | reasoning string | answer_sources string | seed_text string | seed_url string | seed_creation_date string | seed_search_query string | context_text string | prompt string | user_prompt string | question_json string | label_json string | seed_json string | context_json string | rollouts_json null | meta_json string | raw_sample_json string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0ee3e106-fd2c-4c71-924b-6eb9a2aeeda7 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official makes a public statement explicitly authorizing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets located within Russia's internationally recognized borders (pre-2014) on or before August 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-02 and the close date is 2024-08-31. During this period, despite significant diplomatic pressure and initial confusion following remarks by Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the NATO summit on July 11, 2024, the United Kingdom did not officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow missiles again... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGdb0Lw9LvX1qrMxs7mXkhWtU3kuuAB7mwU_GwipyaGkVgEvCz3tlXHE4fzarFooANGAzjLC6_Okv4akvw6WN8140nMwytxr-svof4RCapQojYt37L6_qv0mMmgxd_xy-E85bQpqT1Q_8wTiHv6fkCriXknHqU2MmlNH49YNGhRX4dtTxiC719lGG292alO_P2L0ertgue1oprdQO4dqX8u1A== | Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?
The US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.
Kyiv, Ukraine – Denys, a serviceman in Kyiv on leave from Ukraine's eastern front, is indignant abo... | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/ukraine-can-now-use-western-arms-to-strike-inside-russia | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapons, mirroring mo... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official m... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official m... | {"date_close": "2024-08-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?", "question_type... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGdb0Lw9LvX1qrMxs7mXkhWtU3kuuAB7mwU_GwipyaGkVgEvCz3tlXHE4fzarFooANGAzjLC6_Okv4akvw6WN8140nMwytxr-svof4RCapQojYt37L6_qv0mMmgxd_xy-E85bQpqT1Q_8wTiHv6fkCriXknHqU2MmlNH49YNGhRX4dtTxiC719lGG292alO_P2L0ertgue1o... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?\nThe US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.\nKyi... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapons, mirroring... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "8abfbb7d-2186-43f9-b0f3-3ac8e6c80689", "processing_time_ms": 54455.601, "sample_id": "435b0915-06bc-482d-9b7c-3ed8ef28c4ea"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapon... |
451b2ce7-7776-4803-b006-f055119782f2 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statement confirming a combined operation targeting multiple Houthi sites, similar to the five previous major joint missions mentioned in the seed text. Routine solo U.S. 'self-defense' strikes do not count. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-02 and the close date is 2024-07-02. According to official UK Ministry of Defence and US Central Command (CENTCOM) reports, the fifth and last joint US-UK large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign of the first half of 2024 occurred on May 30, 2024. This event took place prior to the questi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFA-VlssxcAEpfx1UNg-nyLs-w-tvStHP00hTzVGS7Z_ZtpK9thnZGhhiPa3G6EKVQgSY2jDYJcQfd3LRKmeAGDGiokE3OMIJS1w7HpswhiVLOihGh02B46m5BwxUXAoptBRkAyB_qefal6XqfD1wQLLr65J1Y_XXXjSw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHese_hf0yXo1By... | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to "meet escalation with escalation" after joint U.S.-U.K. strik... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a... | {"date_close": "2024-07-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWAR... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFA-VlssxcAEpfx1UNg-nyLs-w-tvStHP00hTzVGS7Z_ZtpK9thnZGhhiPa3G6EKVQgSY2jDYJcQfd3LRKmeAGDGiokE3OMIJS1w7HpswhiVLOihGh02B46m5BwxUXAoptBRkAyB_qefal6XqfD1wQLLr65J1Y_XXXjSw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to \"meet escalation with escalation\" after joint U.S.-U.K. ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 12188.128, "sample_id": "f5ac3980-5055-4392-a77f-434357e72ad1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to \"meet escalation with escalation\" after join... |
4ecf12ba-3aeb-490d-b884-9dffc34b6956 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized international news agency confirming that a U.S. Navy vessel (including but not limited to the USS Gravely, USS Mason, or USS Philippine Sea) sustained a direct hit resulting in physical damage or pe... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of 2024-06-02 and the close date of 2024-08-01, there were no verified reports of Houthi forces successfully hitting a U.S. Navy warship with a missile or drone. Although Houthi military spokesmen made repeated claims of successful strikes—most notably against the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFM1wheckfwXFftm339NsrgJyzNzxuy7WB9SouFUf-oDhcLSfnok7qak4zSkTlavOKGTUAhg-NWQOtIWR_GfuoWDZ59UoXnsJo9vMjpRHVrBnv65kt7P6249Zh5oxVfCRPMzMCZVTmasKCsvrjPnoAhH_wu6bFM1aaJ_8YbRvqUgtTze_W5iq0PgnkcaY0CwHLEQ0S3M-wavD3XRw== | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, though the attack o... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized interna... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized interna... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "res... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFM1wheckfwXFftm339NsrgJyzNzxuy7WB9SouFUf-oDhcLSfnok7qak4zSkTlavOKGTUAhg-NWQOtIWR_GfuoWDZ59UoXnsJo9vMjpRHVrBnv65kt7P6249Zh5oxVfCRPMzMCZVTmasKCsvrjPnoAhH_wu6bFM1aaJ_8YbRvqUgtTze_W5iq0PgnkcaY0CwHLEQ0S3M-wav... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, though the attac... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 11869.941, "sample_id": "17c4db9e-7227-4841-8349-c496e2d01c94"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, thou... |
66b304de-16be-4ff8-962d-809cd28d80e4 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vessel against Odesa port infrastructure before July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian South Command or independent maritime news agencies confirm a sea-launched Kalibr cruise missile strike hitting Odesa's port or storage facilities between June 2, 2024, and July 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-02) and the close date (2024-07-31), Russian forces conducted several strikes against Odesa port infrastructure, but none met the specific criteria of using Kalibr cruise missiles launched from naval vessels. On July 4 and July 10, 2024, significant strikes hit Odesa and Chornomorsk p... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHGj7KDgZ8C8SplsFuvdXf7-lNecGwQrWgpBMIIWrfqBPClJMsZizK7gRXAM4EmUZHU-Y50T2WEkN1gps5wX_YEEGvgP104Wasy7cuGc5uyuXA_x6wWt2NtHYcVw20WYMBKbQdWFCa4fHBx79WwP3n45O2uJbK73Yusf7WEbHDKv2O8jWtTrxFC_DaDm91wGXfv1Bd9DYl2Qab-m9YIlfTQ1_T7oozcyk1S7LSw9zsLiAzHNQt-qw==, htt... | KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, a day after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk province.
The shutdowns were in place in all but three regions of Ukraine following Saturday's drone... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cause-blackouts-across-the-country | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine reportedly damaged or destroyed two Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Kalibr-capable *Tsiklon* missi... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vessel against Odesa port infrastructure before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian South Command or independent maritime news agencies confirm a sea-lau... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vessel against Odesa port infrastructure before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian South Command or independent maritime news agencies confirm a sea-lau... | {"date_close": "2024-07-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vessel against Odesa port infrastructure before July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QU... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHGj7KDgZ8C8SplsFuvdXf7-lNecGwQrWgpBMIIWrfqBPClJMsZizK7gRXAM4EmUZHU-Y50T2WEkN1gps5wX_YEEGvgP104Wasy7cuGc5uyuXA_x6wWt2NtHYcVw20WYMBKbQdWFCa4fHBx79WwP3n45O2uJbK73Yusf7WEbHDKv2O8jWtTrxFC_DaDm91wGXfv1Bd9DYl2Q... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, a day after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk provin... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine reportedly damaged or destroyed two Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Kalibr-capable *Tsiklon* mi... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e66bb325-26e3-4014-b279-72027ee6396f", "processing_time_ms": 344786.02, "sample_id": "90cfe4fc-964b-4c3b-9ea7-3a336c102a18"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine reportedly damaged or destroyed two Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Kalibr-capable ... |
73040f65-4b0f-4812-9a6d-232aa136308d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Chasiv Yar and this is corroborated by independent mapping sources (e.g., Institute for the Study of War or DeepStateMap) before August 1, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | As of the close date of August 1, 2024, Russian forces had not seized full control of Chasiv Yar. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed control over the easternmost 'Kanal' micro-district on July 4, 2024, following a Ukrainian withdrawal from that specific area, the main part of the city located west of the Siv... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEzRZg5K0H_VJaXS0ojxxtcGZCkfYBsb6yDaHpTcByZCwHYNq6Xi7eE6HdIs9ZTk6YfXlAoPPLhZ2BAbARbJJ577V1RyS9-CYrVMO9e4pZuHW60JsVJApodPTaWm7HWwnFZNFqXEn5EWPx3tGxFg2--YiQ=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwo7p5e8p2Wu3WNXr1OJpqVeFO... | KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, a day after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk province.
The shutdowns were in place in all but three regions of Ukraine following Saturday's drone... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cause-blackouts-across-the-country | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024 (published on 2024-05-22 by criticalthreats.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukrainian forces recently recaptured territory near Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces only marginally advanc... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Chasiv Yar and this is corroborated by ... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Chasiv Yar and this is corroborated by ... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEzRZg5K0H_VJaXS0ojxxtcGZCkfYBsb6yDaHpTcByZCwHYNq6Xi7eE6HdIs9ZTk6YfXlAoPPLhZ2BAbARbJJ577V1RyS9-CYrVMO9e4pZuHW60JsVJApodPTaWm7HWwnFZNFqXEn5EWPx3tGxFg2--YiQ=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, a day after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk provin... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024 (published on 2024-05-22 by criticalthreats.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces recently recaptured territory near Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces only marginally adv... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e66bb325-26e3-4014-b279-72027ee6396f", "processing_time_ms": 52744.909999999996, "sample_id": "53c84ed8-5b89-4d33-8e3d-ecba4eb2600d"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024 (published on 2024-05-22 by criticalthreats.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces recently recaptured territory near Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces only ma... |
91e8c883-c1a6-4c8f-ad1e-5e4ecf1b9a01 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to return to its homeport before June 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-22T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official U.S. Navy movements or CENTCOM statements confirm the carrier has exited the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden and commenced its transit back to Norfolk, Virginia, on or before June 30, 2024. If it remains on station in the Middle East through that date, it resolves as 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On June 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense officially announced that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (IKE CSG) had departed the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder stated that the strike group had begun its transit to return to its ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGBI_WhIyiA5B4qkra0r_yYCoJ2ifHChED9o5b8W-RvhX3nUbU6qDh9AkBQq5putJfaequN7fjrmauZdjwNCdLoajvT9Xo4r6ujntrfteKx7CgcV7EWTFPUl5mFWBudlCXpZpYtMbon-H_6i-bGJIilM49HbnaGBBo8L1VI6BQ3YDS_-r9ZekX9CKTlCoBPjcHxv1A69x_E3sWO8Nr89iKYw5c=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Back in Red Sea, Passes 200-Day Deployment Mark (published on 2024-05-06 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has been deployed over 200 days, recently returning to the R... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to return to its homeport before June 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official U.S. Navy movements or CENTCOM statements confirm the carrier has exited ... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to return to its homeport before June 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official U.S. Navy movements or CENTCOM statements confirm the carrier has exited ... | {"date_close": "2024-07-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to return to its homeport before June 30, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUE... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGBI_WhIyiA5B4qkra0r_yYCoJ2ifHChED9o5b8W-RvhX3nUbU6qDh9AkBQq5putJfaequN7fjrmauZdjwNCdLoajvT9Xo4r6ujntrfteKx7CgcV7EWTFPUl5mFWBudlCXpZpYtMbon-H_6i-bGJIilM49HbnaGBBo8L1VI6BQ3YDS_-r9ZekX9CKTlCoBPjcHxv1A69x_E3... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Back in Red Sea, Passes 200-Day Deployment Mark (published on 2024-05-06 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has been deployed over 200 days, recently returning to th... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 12530.729, "sample_id": "fdc7b583-6056-4b7a-90e9-3c900fecfa61"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Back in Red Sea, Passes 200-Day Deployment Mark (published on 2024-05-06 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has been deployed over 200 days, recently ret... |
abab9c31-9bea-4149-9353-a550f06458a8 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied artillery or missiles while inside the Russian Federation's borders before July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if media reports or official government statements confirm that a Russian military convoy or column was struck by Western-made weapons (such as HIMARS, M777, or GMLRS) while the column was physically located within Russian sovereign territory (e.g., Kursk, Belgorod, or Bryansk oblasts) befo... | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Following the United States' decision in late May 2024 to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons for limited strikes inside Russian territory to defend the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces successfully carried out such attacks. On June 3, 2024, multiple reports and geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian HIM... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHIVeKC-K_ttkO3ZP-MboTKdEHNYUk0rAZe2MgQizF8OkLLJMLiaN9BGyxPoRqBDEys312wC1LJZkp5dg1uT3C_ANNJ5gZUOhg_G0scfOXgwcQvsf65J9CBSSi8sWXKsQIFBmLyg1joKFrUw6frx_C8c5rXC8bw9jAG_mNQ78WfLAEoC4skjeok-I_LxB7IoRSbitxpykLxQ2UY6NTvylx526FrToySc5yY0ApBHyv1SMqgjw==, https:/... | Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?
The US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.
Kyiv, Ukraine – Denys, a serviceman in Kyiv on leave from Ukraine's eastern front, is indignant abo... | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/ukraine-can-now-use-western-arms-to-strike-inside-russia | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russian targets with US arms, angering Moscow (published on 2024-05-31 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: President Biden eased the ban allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian targets near the Khark... | QUESTION:
Will a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied artillery or missiles while inside the Russian Federation's borders before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if media reports or official government statements confi... | QUESTION:
Will a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied artillery or missiles while inside the Russian Federation's borders before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if media reports or official government statements confi... | {"date_close": "2024-07-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied artillery or missiles while inside the Russian Federation's borders before July 15, 2024?", "quest... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHIVeKC-K_ttkO3ZP-MboTKdEHNYUk0rAZe2MgQizF8OkLLJMLiaN9BGyxPoRqBDEys312wC1LJZkp5dg1uT3C_ANNJ5gZUOhg_G0scfOXgwcQvsf65J9CBSSi8sWXKsQIFBmLyg1joKFrUw6frx_C8c5rXC8bw9jAG_mNQ78WfLAEoC4skjeok-I_LxB7IoRSbitxpykLxQ... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?\nThe US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.\nKyi... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russian targets with US arms, angering Moscow (published on 2024-05-31 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: President Biden eased the ban allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian targets near the Kh... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "8abfbb7d-2186-43f9-b0f3-3ac8e6c80689", "processing_time_ms": 54455.074, "sample_id": "eb41d30d-f952-4f68-ae31-2c92d033580a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russian targets with US arms, angering Moscow (published on 2024-05-31 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: President Biden eased the ban allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian targets... |
c9b0a454-5d8d-4c33-9115-7cedba9fa41c | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is intercepted by the USS Gravely or USS Mason between June 5, 2024, and July 5, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press releases specify that either the USS Gravely or the USS Mason successfully engaged and destroyed an incoming Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden during the specified timeframe. General reporting of 'missile interception... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Based on U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) reports and Navy deployment records, neither the USS Gravely (DDG 107) nor the USS Mason (DDG 87) intercepted an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) between June 5, 2024, and July 5, 2024. The USS Mason exited the Red Sea theater on June 7, 2024, and returned to its homeport in ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHnF_1J8uI7vufQNJwOovXmdqyrRBqpdDSOaiAnW0-IWyenYfFA3ABYnYEF0Vf6QNI33bOS5OLuWZp3v013aiJbPEqOUB3ON5T14sWi45287x58jUokAhiwNNLdaxGHL_13EHR3mD0tXk8dc58lpryZrMnXjViybQZcT3cyu2pEs-nBtCOMAe9UUX9JafgNCXHDO75r0IsQnjCOHyFCqeg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Navy Gave Combat Action Ribbon to 7 Ships as More Details of Red Sea Combat Emerge (published on 2024-05-24 by military.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Seven U.S. warships, including the USS Carney, Eisenhower, Philippine Sea, Thomas Hudner, Gravely... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is intercepted by the USS Gravely or USS Mason between June 5, 2024, and July 5, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press releases specify that eit... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is intercepted by the USS Gravely or USS Mason between June 5, 2024, and July 5, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press releases specify that eit... | {"date_close": "2024-07-06T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is intercepted by the USS Gravely or USS Mason between June 5, 2024, and July 5, 2024?", "question_type": ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHnF_1J8uI7vufQNJwOovXmdqyrRBqpdDSOaiAnW0-IWyenYfFA3ABYnYEF0Vf6QNI33bOS5OLuWZp3v013aiJbPEqOUB3ON5T14sWi45287x58jUokAhiwNNLdaxGHL_13EHR3mD0tXk8dc58lpryZrMnXjViybQZcT3cyu2pEs-nBtCOMAe9UUX9JafgNCXHDO75r0IsQn... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Navy Gave Combat Action Ribbon to 7 Ships as More Details of Red Sea Combat Emerge (published on 2024-05-24 by military.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Seven U.S. warships, including the USS Carney, Eisenhower, Philippine Sea, Thomas Hudner, Grav... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 12185.51, "sample_id": "615d2a8a-ef6d-4bd6-99c2-39a40a1863d0"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Navy Gave Combat Action Ribbon to 7 Ships as More Details of Red Sea Combat Emerge (published on 2024-05-24 by military.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Seven U.S. warships, including the USS Carney, Eisenhower, Philippine Sea, Thomas ... |
db940b3b-e08d-4b2a-b27d-2710458be322 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted airstrikes against Houthi military facilities in Yemen between June 1, 2024, and July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the U.S. Department of Defense officially confirms that aircraft launched from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) conducted at least one kinetic strike against Houthi targets (such as missile launchers, radar sites, or storage facilities) in Yemen d... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing 3 (CVW-3), embarked on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), conducted targeted airstrikes against Houthi military facilities in Yemen within the specified window of June 1, 2024, to July 15, 2024. Specifically, on June 14, 2024, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces destroyed seven Hout... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEPUJrFYOAhapA5jhNJfhAuzCahW6RF_0stA_17Fsrz0gt0n7C9r5pMPt9AlnVg7QhcC6XL-iBHOtC90ld43P-TeBcpibyjweDJilmRGofvGexufsJIfnjVKnWC7pWUBhEL41FwuR_ED3GAYI06TxH-x3Ab0EzRC5lzuXGjEHpwe7pbq1nu4Vq26B_a, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen killed at least 1... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted airstrikes against Houthi military facilities in Yemen between June 1, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the U.S. ... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted airstrikes against Houthi military facilities in Yemen between June 1, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the U.S. ... | {"date_close": "2024-07-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted airstrikes against Houthi military facilities in Yemen between June 1, 2024, and July 15, 2024?"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEPUJrFYOAhapA5jhNJfhAuzCahW6RF_0stA_17Fsrz0gt0n7C9r5pMPt9AlnVg7QhcC6XL-iBHOtC90ld43P-TeBcpibyjweDJilmRGofvGexufsJIfnjVKnWC7pWUBhEL41FwuR_ED3GAYI06TxH-x3Ab0EzRC5lzuXGjEHpwe7pbq1nu4Vq26B_a, https://vertexa... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen killed at leas... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "89fe4713-c07c-4330-963e-94de67fab6d2", "processing_time_ms": 19861.18, "sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen ki... |
2f88aea9-5949-45ac-b0eb-b8b12b52265f | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure in the city of Odessa, Ukraine, between July 1 and August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (DSNS), the Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces, or reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP) confirm a Russian kinetic strike (missile, UAV, or drone) hitting port facilities within the city limits of Odessa dur... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between July 1 and August 31, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces conducted multiple strikes on port infrastructure in and around the city of Odesa. Specifically, on the evening of August 14, 2024, a Russian ballistic missile strike targeted civilian port infrastructure in the city of Odesa, injuring a port employee and a g... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGsUYm4Nou88vIbUaYF7MFIXXbeSxyV76AeDMs0j8IPvhj2GTr4yx_JXcRc2Fc74fYR-rcFgheNy5bNeSPvFRrFLMvZehy_OBAOtKue4rswaOud38MEKNZTm-ktUnYhCJYWaADFEW7JoJCUFo02lrbhmNimsB_shCkLPGs733O-XUqXPDX29Of-yOQJviemBeZJxlTyT2IYgoN3bY5NhFvtAXfNW24FDQ2L3M-K6Vr5twI43gL1IjqNFBVb9... | No evidence Russian missile strike hit 'NATO logistics hub' in Ukraine
3 June 2024
What was claimed
A video shows the aftermath of a Russian missile strike on 17 May in Odessa, Ukraine, which "eliminated a large NATO logistics hub".
Our verdict
Although the video does show the damage caused by a Russian missile strike ... | https://fullfact.org/online/russian-missile-ukraine-nato/ | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine: Russia's Odesa Cluster Munition Attack Harms Civilians (published on 2024-05-29 by hrw.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: A recent Russian cluster munition strike on Odesa on April 29, 2024, killed seven civilians, including a 4-year-old girl,... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure in the city of Odessa, Ukraine, between July 1 and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-03
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (DSNS), the U... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure in the city of Odessa, Ukraine, between July 1 and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-03
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (DSNS), the U... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure in the city of Odessa, Ukraine, between July 1 and August 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGsUYm4Nou88vIbUaYF7MFIXXbeSxyV76AeDMs0j8IPvhj2GTr4yx_JXcRc2Fc74fYR-rcFgheNy5bNeSPvFRrFLMvZehy_OBAOtKue4rswaOud38MEKNZTm-ktUnYhCJYWaADFEW7JoJCUFo02lrbhmNimsB_shCkLPGs733O-XUqXPDX29Of-yOQJviemBeZJxlTyT2IYg... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "seed_text": "No evidence Russian missile strike hit 'NATO logistics hub' in Ukraine\n3 June 2024\nWhat was claimed\nA video shows the aftermath of a Russian missile strike on 17 May in Odessa, Ukraine, which \"eliminated a large NATO logis... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine: Russia's Odesa Cluster Munition Attack Harms Civilians (published on 2024-05-29 by hrw.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A recent Russian cluster munition strike on Odesa on April 29, 2024, killed seven civilians, including a 4-year-old gi... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e", "processing_time_ms": 76451.23700000001, "sample_id": "ca5b6e97-e1f2-4be5-8bbb-026913e91c58"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine: Russia's Odesa Cluster Munition Attack Harms Civilians (published on 2024-05-29 by hrw.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A recent Russian cluster munition strike on Odesa on April 29, 2024, killed seven civilians, including a 4... |
b7747af6-33b4-4b1e-b772-e058844c6443 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Kremlin officially claim that Russian forces have successfully struck a 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' inside Ukraine during the month of July 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or high-ranking Kremlin officials (Putin, Peskov, Lavrov) use the specific phrase 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' to describe the target of a successful strike in Ukraine in an official capacity between July 1 and July 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Based on an analysis of official Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) briefings, Kremlin press releases, and statements from high-ranking officials during the month of July 2024, there is no evidence that the Kremlin officially claimed to have struck a 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' inside Ukraine. During t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH3wKZHNlbj3G-iTtAwrd2bcW-tCbWLBESmvoj6if-dL18yCIaLnSx37P8PWRLogo-hMrXmyoS6DNMKQkk4y5zu3pRwsBiMXJ0cZtXosOrMUMQT0hyQr6uV87RbOFVcxvWGdtSpsZ8ifyo-1ajoO-5tBYd-xvOtDXTC0lkVsTBxg8Of3hJ_w3NP8BEAzktXSsauTkE059RW1gdzLAsmPUWTimAAy3t0EaXOhX12dCGXA2_7zvqq59BEEl6Mm... | No evidence Russian missile strike hit 'NATO logistics hub' in Ukraine
3 June 2024
What was claimed
A video shows the aftermath of a Russian missile strike on 17 May in Odessa, Ukraine, which "eliminated a large NATO logistics hub".
Our verdict
Although the video does show the damage caused by a Russian missile strike ... | https://fullfact.org/online/russian-missile-ukraine-nato/ | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] NATO chief wants to let Ukraine use Western-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia (published on 2024-05-28 by courthousenews.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg urged lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western missiles... | QUESTION:
Will the Kremlin officially claim that Russian forces have successfully struck a 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' inside Ukraine during the month of July 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-03
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or high-ranking Kremlin... | QUESTION:
Will the Kremlin officially claim that Russian forces have successfully struck a 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' inside Ukraine during the month of July 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-03
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or high-ranking Kremlin... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Kremlin officially claim that Russian forces have successfully struck a 'NATO logistics hub' or 'NATO command center' inside Ukraine during the month of July 2024?", "question_... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH3wKZHNlbj3G-iTtAwrd2bcW-tCbWLBESmvoj6if-dL18yCIaLnSx37P8PWRLogo-hMrXmyoS6DNMKQkk4y5zu3pRwsBiMXJ0cZtXosOrMUMQT0hyQr6uV87RbOFVcxvWGdtSpsZ8ifyo-1ajoO-5tBYd-xvOtDXTC0lkVsTBxg8Of3hJ_w3NP8BEAzktXSsauTkE059RW1... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-03T00:00:00", "seed_text": "No evidence Russian missile strike hit 'NATO logistics hub' in Ukraine\n3 June 2024\nWhat was claimed\nA video shows the aftermath of a Russian missile strike on 17 May in Odessa, Ukraine, which \"eliminated a large NATO logis... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] NATO chief wants to let Ukraine use Western-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia (published on 2024-05-28 by courthousenews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg urged lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western missi... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ca5b6e97-e1f2-4be5-8bbb-026913e91c58", "processing_time_ms": 54463.213, "sample_id": "f0caaa4c-9d9b-45ac-9759-c7b66d68bf82"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] NATO chief wants to let Ukraine use Western-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia (published on 2024-05-28 by courthousenews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg urged lifting restrictions on Ukraine using W... |
08ecf1ae-d8c1-46ed-b05d-63441ffbb566 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the IDF conduct an airstrike targeting a senior Hamas leader in the 'humanitarian zone' of Al-Mawasi before October 7, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-10-07T00:00:00 | 2024-07-13T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officially announce, and credible news sources report, a kinetic airstrike conducted within the designated Al-Mawasi zone targeting a high-ranking member of Hamas's military or political wing between June 4, 2024, and October 7, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 13, 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale airstrike in the Al-Mawasi area, which was designated as a 'humanitarian zone'. The strike targeted Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas's military wing, and Rafa'a Salameh, the commander of the Khan Yunis Brigade. The IDF later confirmed that b... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGtLAGsgZiovjPNqf03pv_tnAZZYLwQ4-6203DkpFWd9AFBxlLM3a809tihoMMU2yjAr44XX7n4-nVKI-0jKm3dVwIvWUAzmDf-CPSatY_INJuTN1yqrMG_rUqCi0jKSZkDH858HafaRYFces3zFgxA3GRdXLY-9k8DGSN06XCgb9m6whg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFR... | Today, naval units must be prepared to deploy into increasingly dangerous and complex operating environments. Unanticipated geopolitical events, such as Hamas' surprise October 2023 attacks on Israel, can lead to dramatic changes in global Navy force posture overnight, forcing staffs to draw and redraw plans to adapt t... | https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/june/case-data-science-sea | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Dozens, including women and children, were killed in an Israeli air strike on a Rafah displaced persons camp, which the IDF s... | QUESTION:
Will the IDF conduct an airstrike targeting a senior Hamas leader in the 'humanitarian zone' of Al-Mawasi before October 7, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officially announce, and credible news sources report, a kinetic a... | QUESTION:
Will the IDF conduct an airstrike targeting a senior Hamas leader in the 'humanitarian zone' of Al-Mawasi before October 7, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officially announce, and credible news sources report, a kinetic a... | {"date_close": "2024-10-07T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the IDF conduct an airstrike targeting a senior Hamas leader in the 'humanitarian zone' of Al-Mawasi before October 7, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolut... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGtLAGsgZiovjPNqf03pv_tnAZZYLwQ4-6203DkpFWd9AFBxlLM3a809tihoMMU2yjAr44XX7n4-nVKI-0jKm3dVwIvWUAzmDf-CPSatY_INJuTN1yqrMG_rUqCi0jKSZkDH858HafaRYFces3zFgxA3GRdXLY-9k8DGSN06XCgb9m6whg=, https://vertexaisearch.... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Today, naval units must be prepared to deploy into increasingly dangerous and complex operating environments. Unanticipated geopolitical events, such as Hamas' surprise October 2023 attacks on Israel, can lead to dramatic change... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Dozens, including women and children, were killed in an Israeli air strike on a Rafah displaced persons camp, which the ID... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "77e786dc-39a4-4207-a892-7601c966ec81", "processing_time_ms": 174152.42799999999, "sample_id": "8b027439-bb9b-46c5-a405-4401d664a80f"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Dozens, including women and children, were killed in an Israeli air strike on a Rafah displaced persons camp, ... |
75587da3-c9a5-41ca-a1ff-7526f733f2b6 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilize the Arrow 3 missile defense system to intercept a threat over the Red Sea before December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF specifically names the 'Arrow 3' (Hetz 3) as the system used to successfully intercept an aerial threat (missile or drone) originating from the Red Sea region between June 4, 2024, and December 30, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilized the Arrow 3 missile defense system to intercept a threat over the Red Sea on July 21, 2024. The question date was 2024-06-04 and the close date was 2024-12-31. According to official IDF reports and news agencies (such as The Times of Israel), the Arrow 3 system successfully inte... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEv_F6Iv_ei9d1kmb1io1PrZrxBCpCW9jVWcTIY5DMGH7Mi5eqOjaicnlkHWqEYdWac2MwksgGW8BrJuE5BO_Ixp1daeZW9HphalYMYdicOiVzPKFA9o5OCe9q9lPrzF5SR3A7hF6ufSqei5LEq5uS2UvuRTVdIeF2fE5XnZbykCuuB, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFBuHLH... | June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
Latest Developments
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile targeting the southern ... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/04/israel-intercepts-houthi-ballistic-missile-targeting-eilat/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran Update, June 3, 2024 (published on 2024-06-03 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Hardliners dominate the Iranian presidential election candidate pool, with figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf registering. Iran continues to in... | QUESTION:
Will the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilize the Arrow 3 missile defense system to intercept a threat over the Red Sea before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF specifically names the 'Arrow 3' (Hetz 3) as the system used to successfull... | QUESTION:
Will the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilize the Arrow 3 missile defense system to intercept a threat over the Red Sea before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF specifically names the 'Arrow 3' (Hetz 3) as the system used to successfull... | {"date_close": "2024-12-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilize the Arrow 3 missile defense system to intercept a threat over the Red Sea before December 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUES... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEv_F6Iv_ei9d1kmb1io1PrZrxBCpCW9jVWcTIY5DMGH7Mi5eqOjaicnlkHWqEYdWac2MwksgGW8BrJuE5BO_Ixp1daeZW9HphalYMYdicOiVzPKFA9o5OCe9q9lPrzF5SR3A7hF6ufSqei5LEq5uS2UvuRTVdIeF2fE5XnZbykCuuB, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nJune 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nLatest Developments\nThe Israel Defense Forces (ID... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 3, 2024 (published on 2024-06-03 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Hardliners dominate the Iranian presidential election candidate pool, with figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf registering. Iran continues to... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "73b613fd-7c75-49a0-8d03-907181b8010e", "processing_time_ms": 198206.71899999998, "sample_id": "5a1ec275-d622-4a16-b77d-843d64965688"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 3, 2024 (published on 2024-06-03 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Hardliners dominate the Iranian presidential election candidate pool, with figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf registering. Iran ... |
783c102e-6fe1-445a-8d7e-828e4e7245ab | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully sink a commercial or military vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-18T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial shipping vessel or military naval vessel sinks as a direct result of a Houthi missile, drone, or marine-borne IED attack between June 4, 2024, and October 31, 2024. The sinking must be confirmed by maritime authorities (e.g., UKMTO) or the vessel's owner. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-04 and the close date is 2024-11-01. During this period, Houthi forces successfully sank a commercial vessel. Specifically, the MV Tutor, a Greek-owned bulk carrier, was attacked by Houthi sea drones and missiles on June 12, 2024, in the Red Sea. The vessel took on water and was confirmed b... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFdsyRixOB7Go5K5et1u3N7pHfrsMWBVrV_usQ6nLR9RHZgOHmSOnvBUjp1tOCjjeUonV3FHCXa2wD5XgEKisHo5BDkqDZh8bdP9jrX2wmh4-NZOTRrxJkBI-SBNZgT70IqBKRZm9Lf99t5T9OqyAxA_ASSFRd3d-X03a-x_ESe4HVNnE0GAIS9ULRkLGdj2fuaZVmqyEoYHShUBgnrgbXsGylDWpmCpGmjbEyUSGE9IwsYZZwJWvLAZSbfk... | June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
Latest Developments
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile targeting the southern ... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/04/israel-intercepts-houthi-ballistic-missile-targeting-eilat/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea shipping attack... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully sink a commercial or military vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial shipping vessel or military naval vessel sinks as a direct result of a Houthi missile, dro... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully sink a commercial or military vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial shipping vessel or military naval vessel sinks as a direct result of a Houthi missile, dro... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully sink a commercial or military vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before November 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_c... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFdsyRixOB7Go5K5et1u3N7pHfrsMWBVrV_usQ6nLR9RHZgOHmSOnvBUjp1tOCjjeUonV3FHCXa2wD5XgEKisHo5BDkqDZh8bdP9jrX2wmh4-NZOTRrxJkBI-SBNZgT70IqBKRZm9Lf99t5T9OqyAxA_ASSFRd3d-X03a-x_ESe4HVNnE0GAIS9ULRkLGdj2fuaZVmqyEoYH... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nJune 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nLatest Developments\nThe Israel Defense Forces (ID... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea shipping att... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "73b613fd-7c75-49a0-8d03-907181b8010e", "processing_time_ms": 451448.91599999997, "sample_id": "47917a40-bb9e-43df-9a36-b87e57ba51e8"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea ... |
8e2e292a-e90d-4c4a-b45c-38f7d1911740 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces launch another ballistic missile specifically targeting the city of Eilat, Israel, before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF confirms the interception or impact of at least one surface-to-surface ballistic missile launched from Yemen with Eilat as the intended target between June 4, 2024, and August 31, 2024. The claim must be substantiated by the IDF or credible mainstream news reporting (e.g., Reut... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks whether Houthi forces would launch a ballistic missile targeting Eilat, Israel, between June 4, 2024 (the question date) and September 1, 2024 (the close date). On July 21, 2024, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree announced that the group had fired several ballistic missiles at military targets ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGMDseOqGfrYcDMvWS_zn8LzJbFOcrTqttmINqLlQPp5Jp9LD_Ncrr-HA56rzJDTHJ__FQUnSmbT_Tb79YgnuUOuLYcypVFXoyWDB_8xTrOBsEDMn6ocG20WKsyxzxuJhYY8usiIpaFySHLFZ4DsMvqc1qvONdLrJL0SZXAvcPwA2HZt4BmrAR_nzmYRs7Zi1X5cjJIpLcEG5VCimrui4_nW6Y0PMA=, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
Latest Developments
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile targeting the southern ... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/04/israel-intercepts-houthi-ballistic-missile-targeting-eilat/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: The Iran Update covers Iranian activities destabilizing the region. CTP-ISW defines the "Axis of Resistance" as Iran's alliance aiming to expel US... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch another ballistic missile specifically targeting the city of Eilat, Israel, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF confirms the interception or impact of at least one surface-to-surface ballistic missile lau... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch another ballistic missile specifically targeting the city of Eilat, Israel, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF confirms the interception or impact of at least one surface-to-surface ballistic missile lau... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces launch another ballistic missile specifically targeting the city of Eilat, Israel, before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolutio... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGMDseOqGfrYcDMvWS_zn8LzJbFOcrTqttmINqLlQPp5Jp9LD_Ncrr-HA56rzJDTHJ__FQUnSmbT_Tb79YgnuUOuLYcypVFXoyWDB_8xTrOBsEDMn6ocG20WKsyxzxuJhYY8usiIpaFySHLFZ4DsMvqc1qvONdLrJL0SZXAvcPwA2HZt4BmrAR_nzmYRs7Zi1X5cjJIpLcEG... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nJune 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nLatest Developments\nThe Israel Defense Forces (ID... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Iran Update covers Iranian activities destabilizing the region. CTP-ISW defines the \"Axis of Resistance\" as Iran's alliance aiming to exp... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "73b613fd-7c75-49a0-8d03-907181b8010e", "processing_time_ms": 242387.742, "sample_id": "7aabfba2-ad4b-40c1-b50c-5463ebaecdc4"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Iran Update covers Iranian activities destabilizing the region. CTP-ISW defines the \"Axis of Resistance\" as Iran's alliance a... |
d00e3b44-57d4-48b3-95a5-b3025035a090 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct an airstrike using German-supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 or Mars II systems against military infrastructure within Russia's Belgorod Oblast before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-21T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if verifiable reports from German, Ukrainian, or major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP) confirm that German-provided heavy artillery or rocket systems (PzH 2000 or Mars II) were used to strike targets in Russia's Belgorod Oblast following the policy shift mentioned in the s... | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On May 31, 2024, the German government authorized Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons, including the Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) and Mars II systems, to strike military targets within Russian territory to defend the Kharkiv region. On June 21, 2024, a BILD report confirmed that Ukrainian forces were actively usin... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGLcWZUfi5K77NE0QHukJ0EbKcS04B3OfQ2REzZhvimaA4_uuGcn9Uyax0PL3iRsGSS6G-P0fRUFVmwRmKbQ-4atuScWAw2KtRBZB_3jBB_WGNuv8SFa65a8_bdEebSAKC2UHPUMzkNt-lV_N_kj67C6fnQALgcH86UDNYxkBHXo7IOdG7hMPK8smenSXjbDKVzUjOg7ROPRg0CwyC2nnM7B-hRpKTvn2rrlmXm5dU=, https://vertexa... | June 4 (UPI) -- A strike by Ukrainian forces on a Russian air-defense missile battery inside Russian territory was likely carried out using a U.S.-made weapons system, a leading American think-tank said Tuesday.
The attack on the Russian S-300/400 battery north of Belogorod city about 25 miles from the Ukraine border o... | https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/06/04/Ukraine-hits-Russia-with-US-made-weapons/2031717499896/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Germany allows Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with German weapons (published on 2024-05-31 by politico.eu) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Germany permitted Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Berlin-provided weapons, following the US decis... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct an airstrike using German-supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 or Mars II systems against military infrastructure within Russia's Belgorod Oblast before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if verifiable reports from German, Ukrainian, ... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct an airstrike using German-supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 or Mars II systems against military infrastructure within Russia's Belgorod Oblast before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if verifiable reports from German, Ukrainian, ... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct an airstrike using German-supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 or Mars II systems against military infrastructure within Russia's Belgorod Oblast before September 1, 2024?"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGLcWZUfi5K77NE0QHukJ0EbKcS04B3OfQ2REzZhvimaA4_uuGcn9Uyax0PL3iRsGSS6G-P0fRUFVmwRmKbQ-4atuScWAw2KtRBZB_3jBB_WGNuv8SFa65a8_bdEebSAKC2UHPUMzkNt-lV_N_kj67C6fnQALgcH86UDNYxkBHXo7IOdG7hMPK8smenSXjbDKVzUjOg7ROPR... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4 (UPI) -- A strike by Ukrainian forces on a Russian air-defense missile battery inside Russian territory was likely carried out using a U.S.-made weapons system, a leading American think-tank said Tuesday.\nThe attack on... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Germany allows Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with German weapons (published on 2024-05-31 by politico.eu) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Germany permitted Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Berlin-provided weapons, following the US de... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "b6c013c3-f8b2-4987-9b77-08d2adad4a1a", "processing_time_ms": 52742.047999999995, "sample_id": "b7adae1d-70f8-42fd-8031-408086d7390d"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Germany allows Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with German weapons (published on 2024-05-31 by politico.eu) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Germany permitted Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Berlin-provided weapons, followi... |
da18520a-2996-4134-9dc6-5bf3512ab42b | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint wave of airstrikes against at least five distinct Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense or U.K. Ministry of Defence announces a joint operation targeting at least five separate military installations (such as radar sites, launch sites, or weapons storage) belonging to Houthi forces in Yemen in a single 48-hour period between June 4, 2024, an... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks whether a joint wave of US-UK airstrikes against at least five distinct Houthi military targets occurred between June 4, 2024 (question date), and August 1, 2024 (close date). Official records from the UK Ministry of Defence and the US Pentagon show that while several rounds of joint strikes (Operatio... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGWWcFN46JVEhMLFEfLNS5NHgo0WnMVkXRKcgiseejmk0LTIZs8Wj1gUYVdsLjoOs0BCEFavluzqgSX_1JRRQNlxH2nAlubPy20kNwNKZmVUcsoKhCJtig3kFlicH4EgIbEuTij-YC9Wi9AgYXQRLM-dT1Zu_sXwfO2ORchBj71V_XFtbgCpN1HWjQe85_f6CKlnl481xiwSMU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
Latest Developments
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile targeting the southern ... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/04/israel-intercepts-houthi-ballistic-missile-targeting-eilat/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Yemen's Houthi rebels killed at least 16... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint wave of airstrikes against at least five distinct Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense or U.K. Ministry of Defence annou... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint wave of airstrikes against at least five distinct Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense or U.K. Ministry of Defence annou... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint wave of airstrikes against at least five distinct Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "F... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGWWcFN46JVEhMLFEfLNS5NHgo0WnMVkXRKcgiseejmk0LTIZs8Wj1gUYVdsLjoOs0BCEFavluzqgSX_1JRRQNlxH2nAlubPy20kNwNKZmVUcsoKhCJtig3kFlicH4EgIbEuTij-YC9Wi9AgYXQRLM-dT1Zu_sXwfO2ORchBj71V_XFtbgCpN1HWjQe85_f6CKlnl481xiwS... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nJune 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nLatest Developments\nThe Israel Defense Forces (ID... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Yemen's Houthi rebels killed at least... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "73b613fd-7c75-49a0-8d03-907181b8010e", "processing_time_ms": 357011.96900000004, "sample_id": "262fab0b-0b2a-42c4-a8e6-a9b91ca236af"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes targeting Yemen's Houthi rebels kil... |
fa9033f9-6bdd-4fe6-90d5-edba5465ebb2 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully strike Israeli territory with a ballistic missile or drone resulting in confirmed physical damage before October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-19T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 4, 2024, and September 30, 2024, Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) launch a ballistic missile, cruise missile, or UAV that impacts inside the sovereign territory of Israel and is officially confirmed by the IDF or Israeli government to have caused structural damage or casualtie... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks if Houthi forces successfully struck Israeli territory with a ballistic missile or drone causing confirmed physical damage before October 1, 2024. The question date is 2024-06-04 and the close date is 2024-10-01. On July 19, 2024, a Houthi-launched 'Yafa' drone struck an apartment building in Tel Aviv... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEDh3fY0f1_oZMaX90oyWxVaWZd33x4246lratiPJSWnXqrcOpMQhW7Ws5MvQwqMhI09ebtyVO5jtT0duDpIajpbrlybHt9RowomlksUXruTDM9pQlMCa2JbrwYva8zzGJLwJg8T69qbnnCMTEbAsTaRwKSIhaD-E5mDKQ=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQESgbDYio940A9m... | June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief
Israel Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat
Latest Developments
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had intercepted a surface-to-surface ballistic missile targeting the southern ... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/04/israel-intercepts-houthi-ballistic-missile-targeting-eilat/ | 2024-06-04T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran Update, May 29, 2024 (published on 2024-05-29 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The IDF established "operational control" of the Philadelphi Corridor to disrupt Hamas smuggling, expecting fighting to last through 2024. Iraqi o... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully strike Israeli territory with a ballistic missile or drone resulting in confirmed physical damage before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 4, 2024, and September 30, 2024, Houthi forces (Ansar Allah)... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully strike Israeli territory with a ballistic missile or drone resulting in confirmed physical damage before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-04
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 4, 2024, and September 30, 2024, Houthi forces (Ansar Allah)... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully strike Israeli territory with a ballistic missile or drone resulting in confirmed physical damage before October 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEDh3fY0f1_oZMaX90oyWxVaWZd33x4246lratiPJSWnXqrcOpMQhW7Ws5MvQwqMhI09ebtyVO5jtT0duDpIajpbrlybHt9RowomlksUXruTDM9pQlMCa2JbrwYva8zzGJLwJg8T69qbnnCMTEbAsTaRwKSIhaD-E5mDKQ=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-04T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nJune 4, 2024 | Flash Brief\nIsrael Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Targeting Eilat\nLatest Developments\nThe Israel Defense Forces (ID... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, May 29, 2024 (published on 2024-05-29 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The IDF established \"operational control\" of the Philadelphi Corridor to disrupt Hamas smuggling, expecting fighting to last through 2024. Ir... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e", "processing_time_ms": 74721.619, "sample_id": "73b613fd-7c75-49a0-8d03-907181b8010e"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, May 29, 2024 (published on 2024-05-29 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The IDF established \"operational control\" of the Philadelphi Corridor to disrupt Hamas smuggling, expecting fighting to last thro... |
0e76b628-6015-41cc-9f4b-b8ed5d04d63d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Royal Australian Navy conduct a joint missile strike exercise with the US Navy involving the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) launched from an Australian vessel before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-18T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a news report or official press release confirms that an Australian ship launched an NSM in a coordinated strike exercise with US Navy assets (such as during SINKEX or Exercise Pacific Dragon) before October 31, 2024. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date: 2024-11-01, the question date: 2024-06-06. On July 18, 2024, during Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2024, the Royal Australian Navy destroyer HMAS Sydney successfully fired a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) at the decommissioned vessel Ex-USS Tarawa during a joint Sinking Exercise (SINKEX) coordinated w... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKb4JFS8AfPeN1MIqSIQ48smzQx5Y7pJ6irPhfg5uQTm86e8-mS7nuI_mWZVz6HHfEmMwcow4fr966Wc5CpfmbP_JMxKPkbwPZ-_rkpIqV0ta-miBk54JP9veHc8yGOEbVSggxiNDlri9j5UPSP_41fiKfNr93Fmw0wsa4kLdcoPv6C1Nrxe8tYiZuPzhGBdaLa396YkGS, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | HMAS Sydney has been fitted with the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) in a boost to the lethality of the Navy's surface fleet. The Chief of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has also confirmed that the Tomahawk cruise missile will enter Australian service this year.
The Australian Government signed a contract with Kongsberg De... | https://www.australiandefence.com.au/news/news/hmas-sydney-fitted-with-naval-strike-missile | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Philippines Fires First Anti-Ship Missile in South China Sea Strike Test with U.S. and Australian Forces (published on 2024-05-08 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: During Balikatan 2024, the Philippine Navy flagship BRP Jose Rizal fired a... | QUESTION:
Will the Royal Australian Navy conduct a joint missile strike exercise with the US Navy involving the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) launched from an Australian vessel before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a news report or official press releas... | QUESTION:
Will the Royal Australian Navy conduct a joint missile strike exercise with the US Navy involving the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) launched from an Australian vessel before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a news report or official press releas... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Royal Australian Navy conduct a joint missile strike exercise with the US Navy involving the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) launched from an Australian vessel before November 1, 20... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKb4JFS8AfPeN1MIqSIQ48smzQx5Y7pJ6irPhfg5uQTm86e8-mS7nuI_mWZVz6HHfEmMwcow4fr966Wc5CpfmbP_JMxKPkbwPZ-_rkpIqV0ta-miBk54JP9veHc8yGOEbVSggxiNDlri9j5UPSP_41fiKfNr93Fmw0wsa4kLdcoPv6C1Nrxe8tYiZuPzhGBdaLa396YkGS,... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "seed_text": "HMAS Sydney has been fitted with the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) in a boost to the lethality of the Navy's surface fleet. The Chief of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has also confirmed that the Tomahawk cruise missile will enter... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Philippines Fires First Anti-Ship Missile in South China Sea Strike Test with U.S. and Australian Forces (published on 2024-05-08 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: During Balikatan 2024, the Philippine Navy flagship BRP Jose Rizal fire... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "65729b9a-c0a7-4d0f-8256-737ae817af3f", "processing_time_ms": 12182.92, "sample_id": "aa984906-d649-4b71-b63d-335cf4219691"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Philippines Fires First Anti-Ship Missile in South China Sea Strike Test with U.S. and Australian Forces (published on 2024-05-08 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: During Balikatan 2024, the Philippine Navy flagship BRP Jos... |
72173c43-7f3b-4f7e-afbc-a321b66c06c0 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers conduct a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-20T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is official reporting from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., DTEK, regional military administrations) or satellite imagery verification confirming that the Burshtyn TPP was struck by air-launched cruise missiles (e.g., Kh-101) launched from Russian Long-Range Aviation aircraft between... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-06 and the close date is 2024-11-01. Between these dates, Russian strategic aviation, specifically Tu-95MS bombers, conducted multiple coordinated cruise missile strikes on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP). A confirmed strike occurred on June 20, 2024, when Tu-95MS bombers launched Kh... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGrfgn8q2z_ynsY7N4X1aFWEMA1DS19LXibF_yKKZOrUCb1yZKqi0SW_cjo2l__pLHewk1cnXTS2wt6JD-5y3Gvj9-MUW5V3ajt_Mqc7HWXHaZVCJBLTenLEcredzPzX0ImvYkr646pya2_Ha1QXNbc2ux3cQNqPTHXeeotmHbTjnsnE0W6GcyozAER6xQtN6HN1RzaG6zCj-bI0AmMSYqfuK3co_0Net-XmQ==, https://vertexaisea... | As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third summer, the scale of attacks on the country's critical civilian infrastructure – and the attacks' long-term impact on the health of Ukrainians – have come into sharper focus. Russian forces have directly attacked not only hospitals and other critical healthcar... | https://www.justsecurity.org/96466/attacks-on-healthcare-access/ | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia Now Firing Kh-101 Cruise Missiles Modified With Two Warheads At Ukraine (published on 2024-05-08 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Russia is reportedly modifying its Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles with a second, improvised warhead, ... | QUESTION:
Will Russian Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers conduct a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is official reporting from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., DTEK, ... | QUESTION:
Will Russian Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers conduct a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is official reporting from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., DTEK, ... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers conduct a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) before November 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWA... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGrfgn8q2z_ynsY7N4X1aFWEMA1DS19LXibF_yKKZOrUCb1yZKqi0SW_cjo2l__pLHewk1cnXTS2wt6JD-5y3Gvj9-MUW5V3ajt_Mqc7HWXHaZVCJBLTenLEcredzPzX0ImvYkr646pya2_Ha1QXNbc2ux3cQNqPTHXeeotmHbTjnsnE0W6GcyozAER6xQtN6HN1RzaG6zCj... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "seed_text": "As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third summer, the scale of attacks on the country's critical civilian infrastructure – and the attacks' long-term impact on the health of Ukrainians – have come into sharpe... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Now Firing Kh-101 Cruise Missiles Modified With Two Warheads At Ukraine (published on 2024-05-08 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russia is reportedly modifying its Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles with a second, improvised warhea... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "0ad1e872-5305-43cb-b34f-dce5c65db066", "processing_time_ms": 54995.981999999996, "sample_id": "3d95cebe-7173-4ad2-a3ef-c7972a227732"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Now Firing Kh-101 Cruise Missiles Modified With Two Warheads At Ukraine (published on 2024-05-08 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russia is reportedly modifying its Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles with a second, impro... |
735d57c1-ded3-4882-80f4-7ca39c584165 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike on Kyiv's energy infrastructure before December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2024-08-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms that a Kalibr cruise missile (typically launched from sea-based platforms in the Black Sea) struck or was intercepted while targeting energy-related infrastructure in the Kyiv region (district/Oblast) between June 6, 2024, and Dec... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 6, 2024, and the close date of December 31, 2024, the Russian Black Sea Fleet conducted several mass missile strikes using Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. A major event occurred on August 26, 2024, where 28 Kalibr missiles were launched from the Black Se... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF22qwVhoZyEKKugAUGXZjlWde18tryer8jKz9D13yP5e_Ezova0oY87seVWkoTsYh8h4yBJ_0uI3z9U8GclZuMMMhXqIZ007mfuzsZE-SFciEOS0eIZPRjPd5dQKtpBSNpVatpHJaMcwUaHcEXCwPudBennOWvhWGxsLkBKaYrk9A4kkqKlzEI1XiiVFZBMmTk93k=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third summer, the scale of attacks on the country's critical civilian infrastructure – and the attacks' long-term impact on the health of Ukrainians – have come into sharper focus. Russian forces have directly attacked not only hospitals and other critical healthcar... | https://www.justsecurity.org/96466/attacks-on-healthcare-access/ | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed two Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Project 22800 missile corvette *Ts... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike on Kyiv's energy infrastructure before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms that a Kalibr cruise missile (typically lau... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike on Kyiv's energy infrastructure before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms that a Kalibr cruise missile (typically lau... | {"date_close": "2024-12-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike on Kyiv's energy infrastructure before December 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resoluti... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF22qwVhoZyEKKugAUGXZjlWde18tryer8jKz9D13yP5e_Ezova0oY87seVWkoTsYh8h4yBJ_0uI3z9U8GclZuMMMhXqIZ007mfuzsZE-SFciEOS0eIZPRjPd5dQKtpBSNpVatpHJaMcwUaHcEXCwPudBennOWvhWGxsLkBKaYrk9A4kkqKlzEI1XiiVFZBMmTk93k=, htt... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "seed_text": "As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third summer, the scale of attacks on the country's critical civilian infrastructure – and the attacks' long-term impact on the health of Ukrainians – have come into sharpe... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed two Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Project 22800 missile corvette ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "0ad1e872-5305-43cb-b34f-dce5c65db066", "processing_time_ms": 54997.104, "sample_id": "ee831045-c38e-4a64-b9a1-ea55114eaefa"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships (Updated) (published on 2024-05-20 by twz.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed two Black Sea Fleet vessels: the Project 22800 missi... |
90f4262e-0de6-464f-bb06-53c19082167b | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Australian Department of Defence confirm the successful test firing of a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from HMAS Sydney before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-22T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if official Australian Defence imagery or statements confirm that HMAS Sydney (DDG 42) conducted a live-fire launch of the NSM (Naval Strike Missile) as part of an exercise (such as RIMPAC 2024) by August 31, 2024. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Australian Department of Defence officially confirmed the successful test firing of a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from the Hobart-class destroyer HMAS Sydney on July 22, 2024. The firing took place on July 18, 2024, during Exercise RIMPAC 2024 off the coast of Hawaii. The official announcement was made by the Minist... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEAOZRKZFXxlL6hoZSyA_QGw0hr9rQDtSc48eiwZlMpE1Bc2XnKDNAbLoDG_LxUuHsNJIRv2HSwitlAXIs2JlM6Pt1Hoav6GU2lJ20M959YWRuAjQwBIBA_p-EE-X1Nvz00LoSrV16AfGtrjOSGvQ5D05tN4Sqfo0msD8QsiLJB8K-kXGLepdqmXcLwygv5N7nOeTXijyU2oPe9FXQGQzIWEzTuvfp9rQ==, https://vertexaisearch.... | HMAS Sydney has been fitted with the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) in a boost to the lethality of the Navy's surface fleet. The Chief of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has also confirmed that the Tomahawk cruise missile will enter Australian service this year.
The Australian Government signed a contract with Kongsberg De... | https://www.australiandefence.com.au/news/news/hmas-sydney-fitted-with-naval-strike-missile | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | naval strike | QUESTION:
Will the Australian Department of Defence confirm the successful test firing of a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from HMAS Sydney before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if official Australian Defence imagery or statements confirm that HMAS Sydney ... | QUESTION:
Will the Australian Department of Defence confirm the successful test firing of a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from HMAS Sydney before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-06
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if official Australian Defence imagery or statements confirm that HMAS Sydney ... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Australian Department of Defence confirm the successful test firing of a Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from HMAS Sydney before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKI... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEAOZRKZFXxlL6hoZSyA_QGw0hr9rQDtSc48eiwZlMpE1Bc2XnKDNAbLoDG_LxUuHsNJIRv2HSwitlAXIs2JlM6Pt1Hoav6GU2lJ20M959YWRuAjQwBIBA_p-EE-X1Nvz00LoSrV16AfGtrjOSGvQ5D05tN4Sqfo0msD8QsiLJB8K-kXGLepdqmXcLwygv5N7nOeTXijyU2o... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-06T00:00:00", "seed_text": "HMAS Sydney has been fitted with the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) in a boost to the lethality of the Navy's surface fleet. The Chief of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has also confirmed that the Tomahawk cruise missile will enter... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "HMAS Sydney missile test firing news; Australian Department of Defence NSM test confirmation; HMAS Sydney weapons system trials timeline 2024"}] | null | {"parent_sample_id": "65729b9a-c0a7-4d0f-8256-737ae817af3f", "processing_time_ms": 12183.472, "sample_id": "6965747b-f0af-4d2a-8609-20fbd1ad2c3e"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "HMAS Sydney missile test firing news; Australian Department of Defence NSM test confirmation; HMAS Sydney weapons system trials timeline 2024"}], "id": "90f4262e-0de6-464f-bb06-53c19082167b", "is_valid": true, "label": {"answer_parse... | |
227841d7-857b-4f2b-955d-40d47b29a4af | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces launch a drone or missile attack that results in a fire on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab Strait before July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | The question will resolve to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel is hit by a Houthi projectile (ASBM, cruise missile, or UAV) in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the encounter results in a fire on the vessel reported by the UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) or the vessel's flag state between June 7 and Ju... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-07) and the close date (2024-07-15), several commercial vessels were attacked by Houthi forces resulting in fires, but none occurred within the specific geographical limits of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Key incidents include: 1) MSC Tavvishi and MV Norderney (June 8-9, 2024) which sust... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFyEaE8OHCn-noK5EvDQgyFWr_IKE-TKHlQEYolPmAgSWSGP7cur-_246SDoJi5OPmJUKeJXdeH9QJ_sBBf90Sp9YjZ9ii4JECMk9VZY9c2kDviGoKiXYsJ7wEwKNGhwQK195RgcQA5r93tvLkL9Ftlv6SqYkuLYFu-ElrVuPLSoZ4xygwWH-B1lZ4yQNDKWkrZLBsj0880fHr4jR8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the Red Sea after being struck by missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. At least one video als... | https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2024/06/07/photos-purport-to-show-damage-to-us-aircraft-carrier-after-houthi-missile-strike/ | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats (published on 2024-05-16 by washingtoninstitute.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Houthi maritime attacks, supporting Gaza, intensified in November 2023 across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Following Israel... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch a drone or missile attack that results in a fire on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab Strait before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel is hit by a Houthi projectile (ASBM, cruise mis... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces launch a drone or missile attack that results in a fire on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab Strait before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel is hit by a Houthi projectile (ASBM, cruise mis... | {"date_close": "2024-07-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces launch a drone or missile attack that results in a fire on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab Strait before July 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_Q... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFyEaE8OHCn-noK5EvDQgyFWr_IKE-TKHlQEYolPmAgSWSGP7cur-_246SDoJi5OPmJUKeJXdeH9QJ_sBBf90Sp9YjZ9ii4JECMk9VZY9c2kDviGoKiXYsJ7wEwKNGhwQK195RgcQA5r93tvLkL9Ftlv6SqYkuLYFu-ElrVuPLSoZ4xygwWH-B1lZ4yQNDKWkrZLBsj0880f... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats (published on 2024-05-16 by washingtoninstitute.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi maritime attacks, supporting Gaza, intensified in November 2023 across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Following Isr... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "c92c2371-4e4c-40ea-b2a9-5bbf864cb604", "processing_time_ms": 54987.272, "sample_id": "ce9dbd9d-77b9-42a3-84dc-b656158f0fb1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats (published on 2024-05-16 by washingtoninstitute.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi maritime attacks, supporting Gaza, intensified in November 2023 across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. F... |
27885e26-0837-42e4-9145-c6804e5c7f5b | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi-controlled command and control centers in the city of Sana'a, Yemen, before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. military (including its partners in Operation Prosperity Guardian) conducts confirmed aerial strikes (manned or unmanned) targeting military leadership or command infrastructure within the city limits of Sana'a. Evidence must come from CENTCOM press releases or major inter... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-07) and the close date (2024-09-01), there were no confirmed U.S. military airstrikes on Houthi command and control centers located in the city of Sana'a. While Houthi-controlled media reported strikes in the Al-Thawra district of Sana'a on June 7, 2024, these were described as hittin... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEK-pP6nM0fkpEA9NVylgi_Z-hukbl37frkZluagE7VvosBebymi1sCvn5_lAsU6u5hQN1BUH2sdzkWf2FAOJxUZQvSLeR9t-KBFC99_WnNdVWxi48l1IxdYjJk5ttvJxM_GLcLx7F99jfVNHGqreePK63EuuYMEwKSK3_v4ZNsgufhHR5W6OOXsxnxugyK0x_TXRo=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the Red Sea after being struck by missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. At least one video als... | https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2024/06/07/photos-purport-to-show-damage-to-us-aircraft-carrier-after-houthi-missile-strike/ | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following increased Red Sea shipping attacks... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi-controlled command and control centers in the city of Sana'a, Yemen, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. military (including its partners in Operation Prosperity Gu... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi-controlled command and control centers in the city of Sana'a, Yemen, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. military (including its partners in Operation Prosperity Gu... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi-controlled command and control centers in the city of Sana'a, Yemen, before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_L... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEK-pP6nM0fkpEA9NVylgi_Z-hukbl37frkZluagE7VvosBebymi1sCvn5_lAsU6u5hQN1BUH2sdzkWf2FAOJxUZQvSLeR9t-KBFC99_WnNdVWxi48l1IxdYjJk5ttvJxM_GLcLx7F99jfVNHGqreePK63EuuYMEwKSK3_v4ZNsgufhHR5W6OOXsxnxugyK0x_TXRo=, htt... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following increased Red Sea shipping atta... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "c92c2371-4e4c-40ea-b2a9-5bbf864cb604", "processing_time_ms": 438397.946, "sample_id": "42f9c203-9972-4107-a8c1-c1d7827258fd"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following increased Red Sea s... |
7ade9340-991c-4a91-9525-83823886ea14 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct an additional strike using ATACMS missiles against a target within the city of Luhansk before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-19T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is at least one confirmed instance of Ukraine launching ATACMS missiles at targets within the administrative limits of Luhansk city between June 8, 2024, and September 1, 2024. Confirmation can come from official Ukrainian GHQ statements, Russian regional authorities (e.g., Leoni... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine conducted at least two additional strikes using ATACMS missiles against targets within the city of Luhansk between the question date (June 7, 2024) and the close date (September 1, 2024). On July 19, 2024, ATACMS missiles struck the Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators. Subsequently, on August ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQElDtkBkjUkFWKNX7vVtnzFuCnoXD0BKNclJdgHH_S14-JvUEBTm1JTdV0oXAW-LsY2bO8bUlEB44PoAe3f9VB42wuPIDoEkRzjQNK9fadSwwLgduO-8au3o9Jb_dL-Zl_kF_Paoo0iNIkDQADHCO32, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFIY4hfP_Z9EF-9j5DAct7r1E8a2mD6... | There are conflicting accounts rising after a deadly attack on the Russian-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine amid fighting raging in that oblast. The Russians say civilian targets were hit by U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles while Ukrainian sources say military target... | https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-counter-claims-fly-over-deadly-atacms-missile-strike-in-luhansk | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] ATACMS Missile Blasts Oil Depot in Occupied Luhansk (published on 2024-05-11 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Explosions and fire struck an oil depot in Russian-occupied Rovenky, Luhansk, on May 10, reportedly via an ATACMS missile with c... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct an additional strike using ATACMS missiles against a target within the city of Luhansk before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is at least one confirmed instance of Ukraine launching ATACMS missiles at targets withi... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct an additional strike using ATACMS missiles against a target within the city of Luhansk before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is at least one confirmed instance of Ukraine launching ATACMS missiles at targets withi... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct an additional strike using ATACMS missiles against a target within the city of Luhansk before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "res... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQElDtkBkjUkFWKNX7vVtnzFuCnoXD0BKNclJdgHH_S14-JvUEBTm1JTdV0oXAW-LsY2bO8bUlEB44PoAe3f9VB42wuPIDoEkRzjQNK9fadSwwLgduO-8au3o9Jb_dL-Zl_kF_Paoo0iNIkDQADHCO32, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "There are conflicting accounts rising after a deadly attack on the Russian-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine amid fighting raging in that oblast. The Russians say civilian targets were hit by U.S.-made Army Tactical Miss... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] ATACMS Missile Blasts Oil Depot in Occupied Luhansk (published on 2024-05-11 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Explosions and fire struck an oil depot in Russian-occupied Rovenky, Luhansk, on May 10, reportedly via an ATACMS missile wit... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e", "processing_time_ms": 450675.856, "sample_id": "e976d84e-d98d-4d34-bc39-98056a96169f"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] ATACMS Missile Blasts Oil Depot in Occupied Luhansk (published on 2024-05-11 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Explosions and fire struck an oil depot in Russian-occupied Rovenky, Luhansk, on May 10, reportedly via an ATACMS... |
8f2a5b91-b358-4665-bf8e-1095b3f24aa3 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the U.S. Department of Defense officially confirm that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sustained damage from a Houthi missile or drone strike before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or the U.S. Navy issues an official statement or report confirming that the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower sustained physical damage or casualties due to a strike by Houthi-controlled forces between Ju... | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-07) and the close date (2024-08-01), the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) consistently and explicitly denied all claims from Houthi rebels that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) had been struck or damaged. Official statements on May 31, June 4, J... | null | For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the Red Sea after being struck by missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. At least one video als... | https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2024/06/07/photos-purport-to-show-damage-to-us-aircraft-carrier-after-houthi-missile-strike/ | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Fact Check: Do Photos Show USS Eisenhower Damage After Houthi Strike? (published on 2024-06-04 by newsweek.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Houthi rebels claimed missile strikes against the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which the Pentagon denied. Social ... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Department of Defense officially confirm that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sustained damage from a Houthi missile or drone strike before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. Centr... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Department of Defense officially confirm that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sustained damage from a Houthi missile or drone strike before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. Centr... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the U.S. Department of Defense officially confirm that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sustained damage from a Houthi missile or drone strike before August 1, 2024?", "questi... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": null, "answer_type": "binary", "label": "0", "label_confidence": 1.0, "reasoning": "Between the question date (2024-06-07) and the close date (2024-08-01), the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) consistently and explicitly denied all claims... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Fact Check: Do Photos Show USS Eisenhower Damage After Houthi Strike? (published on 2024-06-04 by newsweek.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels claimed missile strikes against the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which the Pentagon denied. Soci... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e", "processing_time_ms": 76999.589, "sample_id": "c92c2371-4e4c-40ea-b2a9-5bbf864cb604"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Fact Check: Do Photos Show USS Eisenhower Damage After Houthi Strike? (published on 2024-06-04 by newsweek.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels claimed missile strikes against the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which the Pentagon ... |
9d5ecff7-fa2b-4172-bf21-a0c4325bcfe7 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the U.S. Navy conduct a ship-launched Tomahawk missile strike against Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | The question will resolve to 'Yes' if there is an official confirmation from the U.S. Department of Defense that Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) were launched from U.S. Navy surface ships or submarines against Houthi targets in Yemen between June 7, 2024, and August 15, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 7, 2024, and the close date of August 15, 2024, there were no documented instances of the U.S. Navy conducting ship-launched Tomahawk missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Although the U.S. continued to engage Houthi forces throughout this period, the strikes were primarily ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFpsssdP46jxKi31Pocjd1sVV_SCtjY7kyUkEnQBWrdFXq3w0LF6Bev-0v-bbOZd5M6oeaVfLyBYkk3LsglFqeqUY6G4HwUjqDSP1mKLfRESIYC4nRb2BO2TBRVahvpkdDL2B2-6dM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGH_hvqwBEla5nh1QIMBVZD7rJ0dh6GfSwYHybvv407... | For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the Red Sea after being struck by missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. At least one video als... | https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2024/06/07/photos-purport-to-show-damage-to-us-aircraft-carrier-after-houthi-missile-strike/ | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] A US Navy carrier strike group locked in a Red Sea battle has fired over 500 munitions fighting the Houthis (published on 2024-05-23 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group has expended over 5... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Navy conduct a ship-launched Tomahawk missile strike against Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if there is an official confirmation from the U.S. Department of Defense that Tomahawk Land Att... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Navy conduct a ship-launched Tomahawk missile strike against Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question will resolve to 'Yes' if there is an official confirmation from the U.S. Department of Defense that Tomahawk Land Att... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the U.S. Navy conduct a ship-launched Tomahawk missile strike against Houthi military targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resol... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFpsssdP46jxKi31Pocjd1sVV_SCtjY7kyUkEnQBWrdFXq3w0LF6Bev-0v-bbOZd5M6oeaVfLyBYkk3LsglFqeqUY6G4HwUjqDSP1mKLfRESIYC4nRb2BO2TBRVahvpkdDL2B2-6dM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "For more than a week, photos have circulated on social media that purport to show the United States Navy's nuclear-powered Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in port for repairs to damage taken in the ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] A US Navy carrier strike group locked in a Red Sea battle has fired over 500 munitions fighting the Houthis (published on 2024-05-23 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group has expended ove... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "c92c2371-4e4c-40ea-b2a9-5bbf864cb604", "processing_time_ms": 438984.475, "sample_id": "f237bca8-b1e6-454e-bd51-cefcaf942640"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] A US Navy carrier strike group locked in a Red Sea battle has fired over 500 munitions fighting the Houthis (published on 2024-05-23 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group has ... |
a59f85b4-d28a-47b7-bf52-0bfe8cd7b1ac | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian military officially claim the full capture of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Oblast before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement claiming the complete 'liberation' or capture of Vovchansk and this is corroborated by geolocated footage showing Russian presence in the northern and southern parts of the town across the Vovcha River. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date is 2024-08-15, and the question date is 2024-06-07. The Russian offensive in Vovchansk began on May 10, 2024. While Russian forces entered the northern part of the city in May 2024, official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense and senior leadership (including Defense Minister Belousov on May ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwV457DpBfWhIgxkqAG6iXRr1OfgSCcKOdS00nZf-37Tn2cO3iIm5th5tTjgLHueL0xZeu_UpPmkYaBZvFS-NP6n9nCIWfo45ePHnofA7usBq60yJU-l0xoWaYvAAXF4HPytpF8br1XT_0yZWRm7M8X28jmk1zW_62xjdoLlFaYLFhykynEA3_Jt1Twx_kACOif7DmvA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | There are conflicting accounts rising after a deadly attack on the Russian-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine amid fighting raging in that oblast. The Russians say civilian targets were hit by U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles while Ukrainian sources say military target... | https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-counter-claims-fly-over-deadly-atacms-missile-strike-in-luhansk | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024 (published on 2024-05-25 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukrainian forces are contesting the tactical initiative in Kharkiv, forcing Russian action into a defensive posture as t... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian military officially claim the full capture of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Oblast before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement claiming the complete 'liberation' or capture of Vovchansk... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian military officially claim the full capture of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Oblast before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-07
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement claiming the complete 'liberation' or capture of Vovchansk... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian military officially claim the full capture of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Oblast before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteri... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwV457DpBfWhIgxkqAG6iXRr1OfgSCcKOdS00nZf-37Tn2cO3iIm5th5tTjgLHueL0xZeu_UpPmkYaBZvFS-NP6n9nCIWfo45ePHnofA7usBq60yJU-l0xoWaYvAAXF4HPytpF8br1XT_0yZWRm7M8X28jmk1zW_62xjdoLlFaYLFhykynEA3_Jt1Twx_kACOif7DmvA==,... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-07T00:00:00", "seed_text": "There are conflicting accounts rising after a deadly attack on the Russian-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine amid fighting raging in that oblast. The Russians say civilian targets were hit by U.S.-made Army Tactical Miss... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024 (published on 2024-05-25 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces are contesting the tactical initiative in Kharkiv, forcing Russian action into a defensive posture a... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e", "processing_time_ms": 52490.578, "sample_id": "4a4c5081-2844-4ae9-afcf-413801029831"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024 (published on 2024-05-25 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces are contesting the tactical initiative in Kharkiv, forcing Russian action into a defensi... |
024ae770-c829-4a34-a5cd-551d39cbbec8 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct another ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Luhansk city before October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-19T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if Ukrainian forces launch at least one ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) strike that impacts Russian-held territory within the administrative city limits of Luhansk between June 8, 2024, and September 30, 2024. The strike must be confirmed by either the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, R... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Following the question date of June 8, 2024, Ukraine conducted multiple missile strikes on Russian-occupied Luhansk city using ATACMS. On July 19, 2024, Ukrainian forces targeted the Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School. Subsequently, on August 4, 2024, a larger-scale attack involving approximately eight ATACMS and ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGR6uc4lWu-bcoiTfYl-1xCVbSZQ3_2fkSJnKMqTGLy-bqXbWQPSUFiqt8Rh33CvjBVsNKy0w2WiLF5kBVKk3-C0yJyUz_ztKlgxQMXm1z5zzCWsj9OGesY-9S7PKJE9wYdeYimulE=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHaFkCO2C2hTVHuOuhk7hsd-A8bTt3kvyp4DKT30khO... | Updates throughout.
Ukrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.
Both Ukrainian regions were among four Russia claimed to have annexed in September 2022 despite not fully controlling any of them following the ... | https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/08/strikes-on-russian-held-ukraine-kill-26-occupation-authorities-a85349 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine Situation Report: Claims Fly Over Deadly ATACMS Missile Strike In Luhansk (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Conflicting reports followed a deadly attack on Russian-held Luhansk; Russia claims Ukraine struck civi... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct another ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Luhansk city before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if Ukrainian forces launch at least one ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) strike that impacts Russian-held territory with... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct another ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Luhansk city before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if Ukrainian forces launch at least one ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) strike that impacts Russian-held territory with... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct another ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Luhansk city before October 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "The qu... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGR6uc4lWu-bcoiTfYl-1xCVbSZQ3_2fkSJnKMqTGLy-bqXbWQPSUFiqt8Rh33CvjBVsNKy0w2WiLF5kBVKk3-C0yJyUz_ztKlgxQMXm1z5zzCWsj9OGesY-9S7PKJE9wYdeYimulE=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Updates throughout.\nUkrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.\nBoth Ukrainian regions were among four Russia c... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine Situation Report: Claims Fly Over Deadly ATACMS Missile Strike In Luhansk (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Conflicting reports followed a deadly attack on Russian-held Luhansk; Russia claims Ukraine struck c... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 20690.816000000003, "sample_id": "d6611f2c-c45c-497f-8323-d84326033bf4"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine Situation Report: Claims Fly Over Deadly ATACMS Missile Strike In Luhansk (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Conflicting reports followed a deadly attack on Russian-held Luhansk; Russia claims Ukra... |
869a7ee8-8cc9-4867-a132-9b17543f3056 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces use Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to target infrastructure in Kyiv before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm that at least one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile was launched at and/or intercepted over the city of Kyiv between June 8, 2024, and August 14, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-08) and the close date (2024-08-15), Russian forces used Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to target infrastructure in Kyiv on multiple occasions. Most notably, on July 8, 2024, Russia conducted a large-scale missile strike against several Ukrainian cities, including the capital. Th... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAqpTPZIN_6uxHaTablmxxAbc6Z5j4zrWR6Q55LN3hEOBbz9l6GKj22YmAmZy6dwgX8ryjiWOFCuFn0SDIGBxjS_y5_Ynop2mykXq-ACZyLy96EJxlaNdnBzhr9sJXs8fRixJt3iiyq-50xLOrB5909dLYpuAuA2XFArWvebBBcq2nVqOkH6nT30AZKAf_O7In9pyF, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | Updates throughout.
Ukrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.
Both Ukrainian regions were among four Russia claimed to have annexed in September 2022 despite not fully controlling any of them following the ... | https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/08/strikes-on-russian-held-ukraine-kill-26-occupation-authorities-a85349 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia's seemingly endless stockpiles. How many long-range missiles does Russia have left, and how have its t (published on 2024-05-09 by pravda.com.ua) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Russia is intensifying missile strikes, doubling short/medium-range m... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces use Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to target infrastructure in Kyiv before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm that at least one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile was la... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces use Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to target infrastructure in Kyiv before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm that at least one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile was la... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces use Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to target infrastructure in Kyiv before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAqpTPZIN_6uxHaTablmxxAbc6Z5j4zrWR6Q55LN3hEOBbz9l6GKj22YmAmZy6dwgX8ryjiWOFCuFn0SDIGBxjS_y5_Ynop2mykXq-ACZyLy96EJxlaNdnBzhr9sJXs8fRixJt3iiyq-50xLOrB5909dLYpuAuA2XFArWvebBBcq2nVqOkH6nT30AZKAf_O7In9pyF, htt... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Updates throughout.\nUkrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.\nBoth Ukrainian regions were among four Russia c... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's seemingly endless stockpiles. How many long-range missiles does Russia have left, and how have its t (published on 2024-05-09 by pravda.com.ua) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russia is intensifying missile strikes, doubling short/medium-rang... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d6611f2c-c45c-497f-8323-d84326033bf4", "processing_time_ms": 14505.789, "sample_id": "ef9758d4-9d90-470b-a3be-c363b9965891"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's seemingly endless stockpiles. How many long-range missiles does Russia have left, and how have its t (published on 2024-05-09 by pravda.com.ua) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russia is intensifying missile strikes, doubling short... |
ec99ae2d-c563-442f-9765-78b15ecfdda4 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces claim the full capture of the settlement of Kostiantynivka, located southwest of Donetsk, before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense officially announces the 'liberation' or full control of Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast, specifically the one south of Paraskoviivka mentioned in the context of Russian advances) by August 31, 2024. This must be corroborated by independent mapping sources ... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Russian Ministry of Defense officially claimed the full capture of the village of Kostiantynivka (located southwest of Donetsk city in the direction of Vuhledar) in its official daily briefing on August 30, 2024. This official claim followed the appearance of footage on August 28, 2024, showing Russian soldiers fro... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHJ_Ytvh7yGTfCz8HcrsoH6s-1sNQESQMEExAWkxDfdPtj0yGdHc9OX155IfLuDskMybCsXfFhG1QiKc1cQRRfZDkzSsYpAxT0FkMOQ5f59CqzSNYwO87QJHxKIOPEF-RXwyAW7cm31wxRMLUepOBzMWVc0w6vUlWalNvnCl1ny-Rg1ls0UKX0cYLMGL5y-3RrkxR-yKz10MjPwaJ0T3re8Eo4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | Updates throughout.
Ukrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.
Both Ukrainian regions were among four Russia claimed to have annexed in September 2022 despite not fully controlling any of them following the ... | https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/08/strikes-on-russian-held-ukraine-kill-26-occupation-authorities-a85349 | 2024-06-08T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine's defenders anxiously dig in for a looming Russian assault (published on 2024-05-09 by economist.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukrainian defenders near Kostiantynivka, Donbas, prepare for a looming Russian assault amidst continuous artille... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces claim the full capture of the settlement of Kostiantynivka, located southwest of Donetsk, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense officially announces the 'liberation' or full control of Kosti... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces claim the full capture of the settlement of Kostiantynivka, located southwest of Donetsk, before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-08
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense officially announces the 'liberation' or full control of Kosti... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces claim the full capture of the settlement of Kostiantynivka, located southwest of Donetsk, before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "r... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHJ_Ytvh7yGTfCz8HcrsoH6s-1sNQESQMEExAWkxDfdPtj0yGdHc9OX155IfLuDskMybCsXfFhG1QiKc1cQRRfZDkzSsYpAxT0FkMOQ5f59CqzSNYwO87QJHxKIOPEF-RXwyAW7cm31wxRMLUepOBzMWVc0w6vUlWalNvnCl1ny-Rg1ls0UKX0cYLMGL5y-3RrkxR-yKz10M... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-08T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Updates throughout.\nUkrainian strikes on parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions killed 26 people and injured dozens more on Friday, occupation authorities said.\nBoth Ukrainian regions were among four Russia c... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's defenders anxiously dig in for a looming Russian assault (published on 2024-05-09 by economist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian defenders near Kostiantynivka, Donbas, prepare for a looming Russian assault amidst continuous arti... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d6611f2c-c45c-497f-8323-d84326033bf4", "processing_time_ms": 14235.440999999999, "sample_id": "70240ac7-3ab7-43e5-b6f6-e6eb11e6a6a8"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's defenders anxiously dig in for a looming Russian assault (published on 2024-05-09 by economist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian defenders near Kostiantynivka, Donbas, prepare for a looming Russian assault amidst con... |
18b77010-a9af-46b7-ada3-e3d09b5f353f | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force (RAF) participate in a coordinated joint strike operation with the United States against Houthi targets in Hodeidah before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence confirms that RAF aircraft (such as Typhoons) participated in a joint combat operation with US forces explicitly targeting Houthi military sites in the Hodeidah governorate between June 10, 2024, and July 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks if the UK Royal Air Force (RAF) participated in a coordinated joint strike operation with the US against Houthi targets in Hodeidah between the question date (2024-06-09) and the close date (2024-08-01). Official records from the UK Ministry of Defence and US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirm that whi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKXdi0ERuIekCZz0fE30hBFW5mLIkv-dWybH1-rh8-Xhc8Sa3NScdficlFZ1iqriAJsGqAv_8qG2GTY_xNCax7ZOcmAg_WKeFeMOY7Tx1vCSjZV-fALZ7lKxkjeQ19QahsSm7wzg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEbnDiJaxCpJ3P_QYrlGMnhkNfNfM6J7QIR5V8iQ43G... | Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say
- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire
The British security firm Ambrey said on Sunday an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo ship was struck b... | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3265947/missile-strikes-yemens-aden-hit-two-ships-uk-maritime-agencies-say | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: US and UK air strikes reportedly hit Yemen, targeting Hodeidah's airport and areas north of Sanaa, according to Houthi-run A... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force (RAF) participate in a coordinated joint strike operation with the United States against Houthi targets in Hodeidah before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence confirms that RAF airc... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force (RAF) participate in a coordinated joint strike operation with the United States against Houthi targets in Hodeidah before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence confirms that RAF airc... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force (RAF) participate in a coordinated joint strike operation with the United States against Houthi targets in Hodeidah before August 1, 2024?", "q... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKXdi0ERuIekCZz0fE30hBFW5mLIkv-dWybH1-rh8-Xhc8Sa3NScdficlFZ1iqriAJsGqAv_8qG2GTY_xNCax7ZOcmAg_WKeFeMOY7Tx1vCSjZV-fALZ7lKxkjeQ19QahsSm7wzg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say\n- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire\nThe British sec... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: US and UK air strikes reportedly hit Yemen, targeting Hodeidah's airport and areas north of Sanaa, according to Houthi-ru... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "178c5d19-0020-42d2-a609-d917623a5b74", "processing_time_ms": 10573.81, "sample_id": "c4c63dba-64b4-4032-a364-55276c96d466"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: US and UK air strikes reportedly hit Yemen, targeting Hodeidah's airport and areas north of Sanaa, according ... |
38be424d-5f4e-4570-a7ca-ad423cae517f | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces claim responsibility for a successful anti-ship ballistic missile strike on a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if Houthi military spokesmen (such as Yahya Saree) claim, and US Department of Defense officials confirm, that a US Navy vessel was struck by an anti-ship ballistic missile between June 10, 2024, and July 31, 2024. Near-misses or interceptions do not count. | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of 2024-06-09 and the close date of 2024-08-01, Houthi forces claimed multiple attacks against U.S. Navy vessels, including a high-profile claim on June 22, 2024, involving the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. However, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and independent maritime observers confirmed that n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEZy9SHnSlb0qpcnUkGsp3Feapx7gDMLZ_qbkUYc-8r3UpSdo4xJjANrLNHuRPbSFDwxDMW-PDgxUS2fiI_Z4j5RqFe5_jhElDNNU1DJIwjd5naxm48i7WfFQDLJm6DnxSn4YRK4r_1mn2-KBpFZ-oqoR4nGnflXEBGqCIDiwlm4wpY8KrYEBpcY_CvI2OHkQ48c-QnXT0AFqQpRK8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say
- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire
The British security firm Ambrey said on Sunday an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo ship was struck b... | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3265947/missile-strikes-yemens-aden-hit-two-ships-uk-maritime-agencies-say | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthis Claim a Second Missile Attack on USS Eisenhower in Red Sea (published on 2024-06-03 by sofx.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The Houthis claimed they struck the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and a US destroyer in the Red Sea with drones and missil... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces claim responsibility for a successful anti-ship ballistic missile strike on a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if Houthi military spokesmen (such as Yahya Saree) claim, and US Department of Defe... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces claim responsibility for a successful anti-ship ballistic missile strike on a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if Houthi military spokesmen (such as Yahya Saree) claim, and US Department of Defe... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces claim responsibility for a successful anti-ship ballistic missile strike on a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEZy9SHnSlb0qpcnUkGsp3Feapx7gDMLZ_qbkUYc-8r3UpSdo4xJjANrLNHuRPbSFDwxDMW-PDgxUS2fiI_Z4j5RqFe5_jhElDNNU1DJIwjd5naxm48i7WfFQDLJm6DnxSn4YRK4r_1mn2-KBpFZ-oqoR4nGnflXEBGqCIDiwlm4wpY8KrYEBpcY_CvI2OHkQ48c-QnXT0AF... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say\n- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire\nThe British sec... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis Claim a Second Missile Attack on USS Eisenhower in Red Sea (published on 2024-06-03 by sofx.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Houthis claimed they struck the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and a US destroyer in the Red Sea with drones and mis... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 136673.922, "sample_id": "178c5d19-0020-42d2-a609-d917623a5b74"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis Claim a Second Missile Attack on USS Eisenhower in Red Sea (published on 2024-06-03 by sofx.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Houthis claimed they struck the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and a US destroyer in the Red Sea with dr... |
4bb96889-ae85-470a-90d6-be967489a5e9 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conduct airstrikes against Houthi subterranean storage facilities in Yemen between June 15 and July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if CENTCOM issues an official press release or statement confirming that US aircraft or missiles targeted and successfully struck 'subterranean' or 'underground' storage facilities controlled by Houthi forces in Yemen within the specified date range. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | A review of official U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press releases and independent conflict monitoring sources (such as the Institute for the Study of War and the Wilson Center) confirms that while the U.S. conducted numerous airstrikes against Houthi targets between June 15 and July 15, 2024, none of these strikes wer... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF16Qx-jlKR9qvGMSUbFOAcLKu8zZMuYjhXJg_HqRCmHNCMuw6icsn1QLY3lxXF3djmQ6h_9etx-Fi1qCKdEIZI7LwTW4xwb5eqbDq_uYbiMpjMvDxrr8_zM_xRcwYvw_32TvXGlE9YT5p51xfz-kFQ4i2eOU2S7TE3UPNKmpG82ojgVj0= | Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say
- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire
The British security firm Ambrey said on Sunday an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo ship was struck b... | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3265947/missile-strikes-yemens-aden-hit-two-ships-uk-maritime-agencies-say | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US and UK air strikes hit several strategic sites across Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by france24.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The US and UK struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen on Thursday, hitting underground facilities, missile launchers, and c... | QUESTION:
Will the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conduct airstrikes against Houthi subterranean storage facilities in Yemen between June 15 and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if CENTCOM issues an official press release or statement confirming that U... | QUESTION:
Will the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conduct airstrikes against Houthi subterranean storage facilities in Yemen between June 15 and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if CENTCOM issues an official press release or statement confirming that U... | {"date_close": "2024-07-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conduct airstrikes against Houthi subterranean storage facilities in Yemen between June 15 and July 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWAR... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF16Qx-jlKR9qvGMSUbFOAcLKu8zZMuYjhXJg_HqRCmHNCMuw6icsn1QLY3lxXF3djmQ6h_9etx-Fi1qCKdEIZI7LwTW4xwb5eqbDq_uYbiMpjMvDxrr8_zM_xRcwYvw_32TvXGlE9YT5p51xfz-kFQ4i2eOU2S7TE3UPNKmpG82ojgVj0=", "answer_type": "binary... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say\n- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire\nThe British sec... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit several strategic sites across Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by france24.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The US and UK struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen on Thursday, hitting underground facilities, missile launchers, an... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "178c5d19-0020-42d2-a609-d917623a5b74", "processing_time_ms": 5561.767, "sample_id": "034a9d2b-7611-4d3f-ac73-9ffc2b8d26df"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit several strategic sites across Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by france24.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The US and UK struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen on Thursday, hitting underground facilities, missile l... |
c5e5d13d-599c-4588-a755-ac65a54cc765 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will at least one commercial vessel be abandoned by its crew due to a Houthi drone or missile strike in the Gulf of Aden before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if UKMTO or Ambrey reports that a commercial ship's crew abandoned the vessel as a direct result of damage sustained from a Houthi-launched drone or missile strike between June 10, 2024, and August 31, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date for this question was 2024-09-01, and the question date was 2024-06-09. On June 13, 2024, the MV Verbena, a commercial cargo ship, was struck by two Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles while transiting the Gulf of Aden. On June 15, 2024, the crew was forced to abandon the ship after failing to contain the f... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEb_X9qNN7eddyqyXM9IqI-Uae-9fPXMZ_QbmdoIlm6j0elRzlupIxr2QZmVgHAXkYwYeLNk4MT5zmHppjAGU4vNEm1En5FfGVteM_3jThvxeSrJATc9ul9IrGzF0B2upN3_v6jWbsQfHoA2isbuI9M6GHx-GCrxrCp2OyiKqNEng6itwTStkeWN5aDhy23sBAHDo8ARqgIzcn8URuMEnCkX-wmEKuiRdE=, https://vertexaisearch.... | Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say
- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire
The British security firm Ambrey said on Sunday an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo ship was struck b... | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3265947/missile-strikes-yemens-aden-hit-two-ships-uk-maritime-agencies-say | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea shipping attack... | QUESTION:
Will at least one commercial vessel be abandoned by its crew due to a Houthi drone or missile strike in the Gulf of Aden before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if UKMTO or Ambrey reports that a commercial ship's crew abandoned the vessel as a dir... | QUESTION:
Will at least one commercial vessel be abandoned by its crew due to a Houthi drone or missile strike in the Gulf of Aden before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if UKMTO or Ambrey reports that a commercial ship's crew abandoned the vessel as a dir... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will at least one commercial vessel be abandoned by its crew due to a Houthi drone or missile strike in the Gulf of Aden before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QU... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEb_X9qNN7eddyqyXM9IqI-Uae-9fPXMZ_QbmdoIlm6j0elRzlupIxr2QZmVgHAXkYwYeLNk4MT5zmHppjAGU4vNEm1En5FfGVteM_3jThvxeSrJATc9ul9IrGzF0B2upN3_v6jWbsQfHoA2isbuI9M6GHx-GCrxrCp2OyiKqNEng6itwTStkeWN5aDhy23sBAHDo8ARqgIz... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say\n- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire\nThe British sec... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea shipping att... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "178c5d19-0020-42d2-a609-d917623a5b74", "processing_time_ms": 5776.201, "sample_id": "0cd5d7f5-2414-4c74-8019-a09abd120b60"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following a surge in Red Sea ... |
fb01d065-4ab5-424b-9b8d-708e7e12e3e1 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces conduct a drone boat (USV) attack that successfully impacts a civilian tanker in the Red Sea before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a verified report from a national navy or maritime security agency confirming that an Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) launched from Houthi-controlled territory struck a civilian oil or chemical tanker in the Red Sea before the close date. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 15, 2024, Houthi forces successfully conducted a drone boat (USV) attack against the MT Chios Lion, a civilian crude oil tanker. According to reports from the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the USV impacted the port side of the Liberian-flagged, Greek-op... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHzy4faqH3ObcWw_YFtGsL1fmbifg9DuBXSxvJPfqnCLTLzFReu4rC_qReizaLbzKnoObSKk5XP7qk0E8dVFiI3wVR6Eh0hOKD0QO03jUu_EfBFwCyJzoUsCDdKazk5wLeJ35fsAbeX0ca7iF7yz7cDBHQpFl08Zzbtekoz2W4j6epJriLpgcEFBereSfWDMdFdB1fHV6X2vTtseHS47abhJ6yZVQ==, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say
- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire
The British security firm Ambrey said on Sunday an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo ship was struck b... | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3265947/missile-strikes-yemens-aden-hit-two-ships-uk-maritime-agencies-say | 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. forces down more ballistic missiles, drones in the Red Sea (published on 2024-06-02 by hayspost.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: U.S. forces destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi drone and two others crashed in the Red Sea on June 1; US forces als... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces conduct a drone boat (USV) attack that successfully impacts a civilian tanker in the Red Sea before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if there is a verified report from a national navy or maritime security agency confirming that an... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces conduct a drone boat (USV) attack that successfully impacts a civilian tanker in the Red Sea before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-09
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if there is a verified report from a national navy or maritime security agency confirming that an... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces conduct a drone boat (USV) attack that successfully impacts a civilian tanker in the Red Sea before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "r... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHzy4faqH3ObcWw_YFtGsL1fmbifg9DuBXSxvJPfqnCLTLzFReu4rC_qReizaLbzKnoObSKk5XP7qk0E8dVFiI3wVR6Eh0hOKD0QO03jUu_EfBFwCyJzoUsCDdKazk5wLeJ35fsAbeX0ca7iF7yz7cDBHQpFl08Zzbtekoz2W4j6epJriLpgcEFBereSfWDMdFdB1fHV6X2v... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-09T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Missile strikes off Yemen's Aden hit two ships, UK maritime agencies say\n- One of the two ships, an Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged general cargo vessel, was struck by a missile southeast of Aden and caught fire\nThe British sec... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. forces down more ballistic missiles, drones in the Red Sea (published on 2024-06-02 by hayspost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: U.S. forces destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi drone and two others crashed in the Red Sea on June 1; US forces ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "178c5d19-0020-42d2-a609-d917623a5b74", "processing_time_ms": 5776.549, "sample_id": "c9990b40-4db7-49a8-94d5-1cba0416d60f"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. forces down more ballistic missiles, drones in the Red Sea (published on 2024-06-02 by hayspost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: U.S. forces destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi drone and two others crashed in the Red Sea on June 1... |
400c2887-adff-48af-83d8-7d5e81e4cf85 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine launch a drone strike that results in a fire at a Russian oil refinery located in the Rostov or Krasnodar regions between June 11, 2024, and August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-22T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian military sources or independent international news media report a drone strike launched by Ukrainian forces that causes an ignition or fire at any oil refinery in the Rostov Oblast or Krasnodar Krai of Russia between June 11, 2024, and August 15, 2024. Passive interc... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the specified start date of June 11, 2024, and the close date of August 15, 2024, multiple Ukrainian drone strikes targeted oil facilities in the specified regions. Most notably, on July 22, 2024, a Ukrainian drone strike targeted the Tuapse oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, resulting in a fire that broke o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFGhogYP_V8w8l-bkH6BBamQcC7QbrU5yU1dz6UAkOt11_ofqgI4xp1yhNpdyq8KT05cjW0iyEGKpzo6YYxz4-rgZIDuJY272zw9bu0IShcJ4b3Yo1jjbfjlJ0XBwT7l17EsjpKi9zdEVkWJZyLVNV9FX5wNaJhYgks43nvP1xRiEAemvVLr6N8jfzRS2BpgRL4MP5IYMd6y-S-xQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | <html lang="en"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'i','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMAVyc_u0hW2_IAImAx4w... | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/trump-documents-charges-cannon.html | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine's strategy of hitting Russian oil refineries is working (published on 2024-05-10 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are proving more effective than sanctions, reducing Kremlin oil reven... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a drone strike that results in a fire at a Russian oil refinery located in the Rostov or Krasnodar regions between June 11, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian military sources or independent intern... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a drone strike that results in a fire at a Russian oil refinery located in the Rostov or Krasnodar regions between June 11, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian military sources or independent intern... | {"date_close": "2024-08-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine launch a drone strike that results in a fire at a Russian oil refinery located in the Rostov or Krasnodar regions between June 11, 2024, and August 15, 2024?", "question_ty... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFGhogYP_V8w8l-bkH6BBamQcC7QbrU5yU1dz6UAkOt11_ofqgI4xp1yhNpdyq8KT05cjW0iyEGKpzo6YYxz4-rgZIDuJY272zw9bu0IShcJ4b3Yo1jjbfjlJ0XBwT7l17EsjpKi9zdEVkWJZyLVNV9FX5wNaJhYgks43nvP1xRiEAemvVLr6N8jfzRS2BpgRL4MP5IYMd6y... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's strategy of hitting Russian oil refineries is working (published on 2024-05-10 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are proving more effective than sanctions, reducing Kremlin oil re... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e534bdc9-86cb-48ad-84fc-eb621d36d806", "processing_time_ms": 9920.214, "sample_id": "15b514ca-a4e7-4149-92bb-221ee7cfdce3"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's strategy of hitting Russian oil refineries is working (published on 2024-05-10 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are proving more effective than sanctions, reducing Kr... |
781cf7d9-011a-48bf-8852-551102066387 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States military conduct a joint airstrike with the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force against Houthi military targets in Yemen before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence confirm a joint kinetic operation involving airstrikes or missile strikes against Houthi-controlled infrastructure or weapons in Yemen between June 11, 2024, and September 1, 2024. Unilateral US strikes do not qualify. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The United States and the United Kingdom conducted multiple rounds of joint airstrikes against Houthi targets in early 2024, with the last major joint operation occurring on May 30, 2024. During the specific period under review (from the question date of 2024-06-10 to the close date of 2024-09-02), there were no confir... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEeZEmNc1Vphc9aGmcrkdWUqX2aM2GBlm_TCLtlc71X8Qyf1iQNFeSH4I6xo4qgEfv8Oi3z2osx2AWk7v8nkIAI3Wkj36SfzFRbDc5ctU-vrX5grR_0ZB6sf4o5gCl8O4CeHF-Ui6U=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFas2zn-oauxhAp_thOibfkdmi80f2NKSlkrEtjl2QX... | <html lang="en"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'i','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMAVyc_u0hW2_IAImAx4w... | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/trump-documents-charges-cannon.html | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes hit Houthi targets in Yemen, with rebels reporting... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct a joint airstrike with the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force against Houthi military targets in Yemen before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence c... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct a joint airstrike with the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force against Houthi military targets in Yemen before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence c... | {"date_close": "2024-09-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States military conduct a joint airstrike with the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force against Houthi military targets in Yemen before September 1, 2024?", "question_type":... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEeZEmNc1Vphc9aGmcrkdWUqX2aM2GBlm_TCLtlc71X8Qyf1iQNFeSH4I6xo4qgEfv8Oi3z2osx2AWk7v8nkIAI3Wkj36SfzFRbDc5ctU-vrX5grR_0ZB6sf4o5gCl8O4CeHF-Ui6U=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes hit Houthi targets in Yemen, with rebels report... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e534bdc9-86cb-48ad-84fc-eb621d36d806", "processing_time_ms": 14156.812, "sample_id": "a9324acd-244b-4ea1-97d6-3c82b507efc5"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint U.S.-British airstrikes in Yemen (published on 2024-05-31 by latimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Joint U.S.-British airstrikes hit Houthi targets in Yemen, with r... |
8eee4d91-a13d-4b8e-8eac-d4287d64ad3a | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully hit a commercial merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile between June 11, 2024, and July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirms a commercial merchant vessel was struck by an anti-ship ballistic missile fired by Houthi forces in the Gulf of Aden between June 11, 2024, and July 15, 2024. Near misses or intercepted missiles tha... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The M/V Verbena, a commercial bulk cargo carrier, was successfully hit by a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) in the Gulf of Aden on June 13, 2024. According to official reports from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), the vessel was struck by one ASBM at approximately 16:... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHFVnNH42Ps4NA-iiY-grDanqeyKTSnTDwEP6ueJEib4WfwpjqCyodeecG--FTR_JQrYKrqZwXpFHs5kPw0H1X23Pic8nWoQcIjMv0rQoe6podcjeNMEndqwBSAfSnn6GyPyyfGQxoWjUnJ3K0g_0bX7TrhaZIeRvSI1VHV5cH9hrTeXy1AXVY5PS0ZOgdERsL2S2CFN9B0ii1x394-kjD3Jl3mSmwfKna3-0FJ, https://vertexaisea... | <html lang="en"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'i','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMAVyc_u0hW2_IAImAx4w... | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/trump-documents-charges-cannon.html | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Dryad Says Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea Drop (published on 2024-05-29 by rigzone.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Dryad reports a drop in Red Sea commercial vessel attacks, suggesting a Houthi shift to a war of attrition, despite steady s... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully hit a commercial merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile between June 11, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the UK Maritime Trade Operati... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully hit a commercial merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile between June 11, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the UK Maritime Trade Operati... | {"date_close": "2024-07-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully hit a commercial merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile between June 11, 2024, and July 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORW... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHFVnNH42Ps4NA-iiY-grDanqeyKTSnTDwEP6ueJEib4WfwpjqCyodeecG--FTR_JQrYKrqZwXpFHs5kPw0H1X23Pic8nWoQcIjMv0rQoe6podcjeNMEndqwBSAfSnn6GyPyyfGQxoWjUnJ3K0g_0bX7TrhaZIeRvSI1VHV5cH9hrTeXy1AXVY5PS0ZOgdERsL2S2CFN9B0i... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Dryad Says Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea Drop (published on 2024-05-29 by rigzone.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Dryad reports a drop in Red Sea commercial vessel attacks, suggesting a Houthi shift to a war of attrition, despite stead... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e534bdc9-86cb-48ad-84fc-eb621d36d806", "processing_time_ms": 9919.140000000001, "sample_id": "fe53eb10-1c5c-4798-821b-7e521ea18f17"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Dryad Says Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea Drop (published on 2024-05-29 by rigzone.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Dryad reports a drop in Red Sea commercial vessel attacks, suggesting a Houthi shift to a war of attrition, d... |
a6aaf6ac-0cbc-4557-a7c0-f97f1f6098b1 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces use a Zircon (3M22) hypersonic missile in a strike against a target in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 11, 2024, and September 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian military authorities (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) or international investigative bodies confirm the use of at least one Zircon (3M22) hypersonic missile in an attack targeting Kyiv between June 11, 2024, and September 30, 2024. Evidence must include recovere... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 8, 2024, during a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine, Russian forces launched one 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile as part of a strike package primarily targeting Kyiv. This was officially reported by the Ukrainian Air Force Command and the Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA). The attack on that date incl... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFjf2UmXYSQ6i12-d4FDYix2wbIpfxPCSnZOakGKR8lFr0cHdbCetsC9ddw5jCo2clCpRTUPxDp6cWrKSiJlfL62WkcSrazilfEMzF__BaiLJ2F51XeH12G_Wouat157_7rPOjeQvyCcNU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHu_SX8Jwe2C03BeGcAhgy_FiaAV9PzDbnpdJOO... | <html lang="en"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'i','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMAVyc_u0hW2_IAImAx4w... | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/trump-documents-charges-cannon.html | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined, dropping from 73% to 46% over the last... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces use a Zircon (3M22) hypersonic missile in a strike against a target in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 11, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian military authorities (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukrain... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces use a Zircon (3M22) hypersonic missile in a strike against a target in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 11, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian military authorities (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukrain... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces use a Zircon (3M22) hypersonic missile in a strike against a target in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 11, 2024, and September 30, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOK... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFjf2UmXYSQ6i12-d4FDYix2wbIpfxPCSnZOakGKR8lFr0cHdbCetsC9ddw5jCo2clCpRTUPxDp6cWrKSiJlfL62WkcSrazilfEMzF__BaiLJ2F51XeH12G_Wouat157_7rPOjeQvyCcNU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redir... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined, dropping from 73% to 46% over the l... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "e534bdc9-86cb-48ad-84fc-eb621d36d806", "processing_time_ms": 14157.298, "sample_id": "f1d40a43-377c-473a-af9f-a9c777404693"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined, dropping from 73% to 46... |
f0e0c0c6-53fe-4028-a466-10dd8477fb18 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on a target in the city of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 11, 2024, and July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducting any kinetic airstrike using fixed-wing aircraft or drones within the municipal limits of Beirut, Lebanon, during the period of June 11, 2024, to 11:59 PM UTC on July 31, 2024. Artillery o... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 30, 2024, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted a targeted airstrike in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of the Dahieh district in southern Beirut, Lebanon. The strike resulted in the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a senior military commander of Hezbollah. This event occurred within the specified timeframe of June 11... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE8crt9YGZVCl5Hp9h2NaWhqzg_lVqSxjyq3OqsdRaW2_lUijKb1hxseXc5Ega05q7ko5lDJ3r67YVgf5sjWekaUVcZO-y5Ef3BLKiTkco93NcIfEvg_OEXj1LjBfy21oNprpXW45vqZhapgCT1qmt5vM8l50PPzJy8y_A=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFG3zsGEilRZr3r... | <html lang="en"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'i','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMAVyc_u0hW2_IAImAx4w... | https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/us/politics/trump-documents-charges-cannon.html | 2024-06-10T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Are Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel about to go to war? (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah since October 8, meant to impede Israel's Gaza war, ... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on a target in the city of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 11, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) ... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on a target in the city of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 11, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-10
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) ... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on a target in the city of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 11, 2024, and July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE8crt9YGZVCl5Hp9h2NaWhqzg_lVqSxjyq3OqsdRaW2_lUijKb1hxseXc5Ega05q7ko5lDJ3r67YVgf5sjWekaUVcZO-y5Ef3BLKiTkco93NcIfEvg_OEXj1LjBfy21oNprpXW45vqZhapgCT1qmt5vM8l50PPzJy8y_A=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-10T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>nytimes.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Are Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel about to go to war? (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah since October 8, meant to impede Israel's Gaza wa... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 20538.308, "sample_id": "e534bdc9-86cb-48ad-84fc-eb621d36d806"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Are Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel about to go to war? (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah since October 8, meant to impede Isra... |
204f7cf4-015d-41c2-b50a-80b33ab9d79e | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Houthi movement launch a successful missile or drone strike that impacts the territory of Israel before October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-19T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) or major international news outlets confirm that a Houthi-launched projectile impacted Israeli territory (land or territorial waters) or caused damage/casualties within Israel. Interceptions by the 'Arrow' or 'Iron Dome' systems that prevent impact on terr... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 19, 2024, a Houthi-launched 'Jaffa' drone successfully impacted an apartment building in central Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring several others. This event occurred after the question start date (2024-06-11) and before the close date (2024-10-01). Additionally, on September 15, 2024, a Houthi ballisti... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG_RiV5FlIGwA_8b40jtQhw5CCnUluEkpfd7U7-pbTKpYVEFWQKcc97SLTqT-qySo5TP4eYz6EwFRfmoT7rj6GU3TqhKFrnty0UR2lEdXuarDBD-zYy7k2dJq9Z-eNvcVCt_S4P2PFil7RYx0VkXWe_-kl9NiFfmkCv7Ux8rGFQUsg9vjbp9QAR5dDMlr-w5t1othLXshZsIbdHc3eQvGw=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | INTELBRIEF
June 11, 2024
IntelBrief: Houthis Strike at Domestic and Foreign Adversaries
Bottom Line Up Front
- The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen has sought to demonstrate strength against its domestic and global adversaries in the face of Western military pressure.
- The Houthis continue to attack commercial sh... | https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-june-11/ | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthis Are Using Weapons That Can Reach the Mediterranean Sea, US Says (published on 2024-05-22 by bloomberg.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: US officials state that Houthi militants possess weapons capable of reaching the Mediterranean Sea, validat... | QUESTION:
Will the Houthi movement launch a successful missile or drone strike that impacts the territory of Israel before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) or major international news outlets confirm that a Houthi-launched p... | QUESTION:
Will the Houthi movement launch a successful missile or drone strike that impacts the territory of Israel before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) or major international news outlets confirm that a Houthi-launched p... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Houthi movement launch a successful missile or drone strike that impacts the territory of Israel before October 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolut... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG_RiV5FlIGwA_8b40jtQhw5CCnUluEkpfd7U7-pbTKpYVEFWQKcc97SLTqT-qySo5TP4eYz6EwFRfmoT7rj6GU3TqhKFrnty0UR2lEdXuarDBD-zYy7k2dJq9Z-eNvcVCt_S4P2PFil7RYx0VkXWe_-kl9NiFfmkCv7Ux8rGFQUsg9vjbp9QAR5dDMlr-w5t1othLXshZsI... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "INTELBRIEF\nJune 11, 2024\nIntelBrief: Houthis Strike at Domestic and Foreign Adversaries\nBottom Line Up Front\n- The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen has sought to demonstrate strength against its domestic and global a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis Are Using Weapons That Can Reach the Mediterranean Sea, US Says (published on 2024-05-22 by bloomberg.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: US officials state that Houthi militants possess weapons capable of reaching the Mediterranean Sea, vali... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "2a5d3a34-d161-4a9e-9cb1-4cc638f9ded6", "processing_time_ms": 14013.839, "sample_id": "73034874-2073-4a82-876d-de56f1057f6c"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis Are Using Weapons That Can Reach the Mediterranean Sea, US Says (published on 2024-05-22 by bloomberg.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: US officials state that Houthi militants possess weapons capable of reaching the Mediterrane... |
285f6347-ff45-404b-8d02-d9cf0f7ca4aa | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces launch a single wave of attacks using more than 150 combined missiles and 'Geran-2' drones against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a 24-hour period before December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent monitors (like the ISW) report a single coordinated attack event where the total number of incoming missiles (cruise/ballistic) and Geran-2 (Shahed) drones exceeds 150 units, targeting energy/utility infrastructure. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Russian forces launched multiple massive combined missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure within a 24-hour period between the question date (2024-06-11) and the close date (2025-01-01). The first and largest instance occurred on August 26, 2024, when the Ukrainian Air Force and President Zelen... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHTa0RWYZNUZSNLdYxekpRUelWgcdE6RoliIl01mX04v3FrCnKVXVtRFx4yy1rNV-f2biEr26J6K4kpM78zL1CL4t190SRpjtI0RP5pZWPEplAPtEQA9GWBR9qEBlI1J4IoC3VQn3ErAyWfabuHMGB5ak1dE5FFUSbyc1QvJ6l2z0W27AGprpUkZQj6lKLrIeOiu8ilnbYDDv6Spdn9Pv0gMOtIbBtOPGLbGRD4qBiuEsrNPFURcRg=, htt... | Since the launch of the full-scale invasion, Russia has deployed more than 10,000 strategic and operational-tactical missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and about 29,000 glide bombs against Ukraine, destroying lives and vital civilian infrastructure.
The Kremlin has disabled or destroyed around 90% of the cap... | https://cepa.org/article/saving-ukraines-power-supply/ | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Since March 22, Russia has resumed wide-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, intensified by delayed military aid and ... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a single wave of attacks using more than 150 combined missiles and 'Geran-2' drones against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a 24-hour period before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or inde... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a single wave of attacks using more than 150 combined missiles and 'Geran-2' drones against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a 24-hour period before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or inde... | {"date_close": "2025-01-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces launch a single wave of attacks using more than 150 combined missiles and 'Geran-2' drones against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a 24-hour period before Decembe... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHTa0RWYZNUZSNLdYxekpRUelWgcdE6RoliIl01mX04v3FrCnKVXVtRFx4yy1rNV-f2biEr26J6K4kpM78zL1CL4t190SRpjtI0RP5pZWPEplAPtEQA9GWBR9qEBlI1J4IoC3VQn3ErAyWfabuHMGB5ak1dE5FFUSbyc1QvJ6l2z0W27AGprpUkZQj6lKLrIeOiu8ilnbYDD... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Since the launch of the full-scale invasion, Russia has deployed more than 10,000 strategic and operational-tactical missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and about 29,000 glide bombs against Ukraine, destroying lives ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Since March 22, Russia has resumed wide-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, intensified by delayed military aid a... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "6dd51887-facc-47cf-b2a4-55b0fdb88d2c", "processing_time_ms": 10924.499000000002, "sample_id": "4e2d27f9-fa10-4b0a-b21d-98eb65ad511c"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Since March 22, Russia has resumed wide-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, intensified by delayed mi... |
2b4a4b59-ab68-4803-9ecd-aa53f43edfec | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian military aircraft conduct a documented flight in Venezuelan airspace before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Pentagon, the Russian MoD, or the Venezuelan government confirms that Russian military aircraft (such as Tu-160 bombers or Tu-142 maritime patrol planes) entered and operated within Venezuelan sovereign airspace between June 11, 2024, and September 1, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-11) and the close date (2024-09-01), Russian military presence in Venezuela was documented primarily through naval visits. On July 2, 2024, a naval flotilla including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov arrived in La Guaira, followed by the training ship Smolny on August 6, 2024. However, no... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGoORFmDg74fc9kAKt10SenH38insPFft2ELsgyWnPqd6i6INjOSJogxblkc8G40yCE0p18b0ieSxUc8nmhDZu7xluEgs3dE-euoT4nm6smbPg-KxzrVZ6-AZjsGuJ9QldDLcN5oBkD47e_nq_wcmGwSRFjY28QbfJ4QGdNpeB0txWooouD_zsHV6YdzJ5TKRZQ1CZ5iXofgrag9XPjPm58ukT9jjgr1z99PZUCZuVdI58Y0NWKp0YnBW6rX... | THE PENTAGON – A nuclear Russian submarine carrying guided missiles with a range of 1,000 nautical miles is operating off the East Coast as part of Russian missile drills in the Atlantic.
Kazan, a Yasen-M-class guided missile submarine, is part of a naval action group the Russian Ministry of Defense deployed to the Atl... | https://news.usni.org/2024/06/11/russian-nuclear-sub-frigate-with-long-range-land-attack-missiles-operating-off-east-coast | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia's Advanced Yasen-M Class Nuclear Submarine Is Headed For Cuba (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: A Russian flotilla, including the advanced Kazan nuclear submarine and the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, is heading to C... | QUESTION:
Will Russian military aircraft conduct a documented flight in Venezuelan airspace before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Pentagon, the Russian MoD, or the Venezuelan government confirms that Russian military aircraft (such as Tu-160 bomb... | QUESTION:
Will Russian military aircraft conduct a documented flight in Venezuelan airspace before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Pentagon, the Russian MoD, or the Venezuelan government confirms that Russian military aircraft (such as Tu-160 bomb... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian military aircraft conduct a documented flight in Venezuelan airspace before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "The qu... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGoORFmDg74fc9kAKt10SenH38insPFft2ELsgyWnPqd6i6INjOSJogxblkc8G40yCE0p18b0ieSxUc8nmhDZu7xluEgs3dE-euoT4nm6smbPg-KxzrVZ6-AZjsGuJ9QldDLcN5oBkD47e_nq_wcmGwSRFjY28QbfJ4QGdNpeB0txWooouD_zsHV6YdzJ5TKRZQ1CZ5iXofg... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "THE PENTAGON – A nuclear Russian submarine carrying guided missiles with a range of 1,000 nautical miles is operating off the East Coast as part of Russian missile drills in the Atlantic.\nKazan, a Yasen-M-class guided missile... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's Advanced Yasen-M Class Nuclear Submarine Is Headed For Cuba (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A Russian flotilla, including the advanced Kazan nuclear submarine and the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, is heading t... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "363bdbbc-0bc0-4c4e-bab0-89e49ffa58b1", "processing_time_ms": 10573.396, "sample_id": "9c7e2634-ea49-4cf3-bdbb-452f9bc074c1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's Advanced Yasen-M Class Nuclear Submarine Is Headed For Cuba (published on 2024-06-07 by twz.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A Russian flotilla, including the advanced Kazan nuclear submarine and the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, ... |
8d31132b-7f88-42ad-90b0-00ce7c784f8d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States military conduct a direct, intentional strike on Houthi targets in Yemen involving carrier-based aircraft or ship-launched missiles between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issues a statement or major news organizations report a U.S.-led or U.S.-exclusive kinetic operation against Houthi military targets (launchers, radar, storage) in Yemen during the window. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The United States military, specifically through U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), conducted multiple direct and intentional strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024. On July 11, 2024, CENTCOM forces successfully destroyed five Houthi uncrewed surface vessels (USV) and two uncrewed ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHemYUGdH66Ukkc44ixngN2LPp27OrX6EgzSVWdRLJ6dTrjIH8mBVU-4f6dn_OaOibWVIEh-JXApdH0Oi62JnXt08b-e3HmPll4wwndqvcgIlJR-iN_i1yYQE_6MeEOtm-d9djjKlFVdtIbS1DxlqqN7H06zetw1DVo, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGO1Sg1SNg0H6wzlV1r... | Title: How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency
URL Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza
Published Time: 2024-06-11T07:00:00-04:00
Markdown Content:
How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency : NPR
===============
Accessibility links
* [Sk... | https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran supplies Houthis with sea-launched ballistic missile (published on 2024-06-01 by middleeastmonitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Iran supplied the Houthis with a sea-launched Ghadr-110 ballistic missile, capable of challenging US and Israeli ... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct a direct, intentional strike on Houthi targets in Yemen involving carrier-based aircraft or ship-launched missiles between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (C... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct a direct, intentional strike on Houthi targets in Yemen involving carrier-based aircraft or ship-launched missiles between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Central Command (C... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States military conduct a direct, intentional strike on Houthi targets in Yemen involving carrier-based aircraft or ship-launched missiles between July 1, 2024, and Sept... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHemYUGdH66Ukkc44ixngN2LPp27OrX6EgzSVWdRLJ6dTrjIH8mBVU-4f6dn_OaOibWVIEh-JXApdH0Oi62JnXt08b-e3HmPll4wwndqvcgIlJR-iN_i1yYQE_6MeEOtm-d9djjKlFVdtIbS1DxlqqN7H06zetw1DVo, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Title: How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency\n\nURL Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza\n\nPublished Time: 2024-06-11T07:00:00-04:00\n\nMarkdown Content:\nHo... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran supplies Houthis with sea-launched ballistic missile (published on 2024-06-01 by middleeastmonitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Iran supplied the Houthis with a sea-launched Ghadr-110 ballistic missile, capable of challenging US and Israe... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ab975d5e-aaf0-4178-a66e-f299b66df1b7", "processing_time_ms": 14245.988000000001, "sample_id": "2d303ce0-6c17-4b40-9859-9a40c10587ea"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran supplies Houthis with sea-launched ballistic missile (published on 2024-06-01 by middleeastmonitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Iran supplied the Houthis with a sea-launched Ghadr-110 ballistic missile, capable of challenging ... |
9c222754-4037-4d04-a1a0-53494d8d2b57 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces launch a mass missile strike involving over 50 cruise or ballistic missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on a single calendar day before October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent monitors confirm a single-day barrage of 51 or more cruise/ballistic missiles targeting the state power grid, power plants, or substations. Drones (Shaheds) do not count toward the 50-missile threshold. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On August 26, 2024, Russian forces launched one of the largest coordinated aerial attacks of the war, specifically targeting Ukraine's fuel and energy sector across 15 regions. According to reports from the Ukrainian Air Force and international news agencies, the strike involved 127 missiles, including 77 Kh-101 cruise... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHZ0gdh8qe0erKQEM483R1HQCjlw1K7s-KJukUBaOWUkZvTW1Vsw9mn30PHoS8aYXRUByJaxkxS3JNBj984W0b3RzE_4zkwMeZNnJ8h_ew9b1E1XFy2rTprLIBZCGRf1DCz_L___sJdMEts3uz-dB-t, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEhRR8oQhZUaBUjAB1eNCrw0THxbIk3... | Title: How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency
URL Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza
Published Time: 2024-06-11T07:00:00-04:00
Markdown Content:
How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency : NPR
===============
Accessibility links
* [Sk... | https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure Become Hybrid Threat to Europe (published on 2024-05-14 by jamestown.org) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Russia's hybrid strategy targets Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, especially energy systems, ... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a mass missile strike involving over 50 cruise or ballistic missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on a single calendar day before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent moni... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a mass missile strike involving over 50 cruise or ballistic missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on a single calendar day before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent moni... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces launch a mass missile strike involving over 50 cruise or ballistic missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on a single calendar day before October 1, 2024?"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHZ0gdh8qe0erKQEM483R1HQCjlw1K7s-KJukUBaOWUkZvTW1Vsw9mn30PHoS8aYXRUByJaxkxS3JNBj984W0b3RzE_4zkwMeZNnJ8h_ew9b1E1XFy2rTprLIBZCGRf1DCz_L___sJdMEts3uz-dB-t, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Title: How 2 unexpected wars are defining Biden's presidency\n\nURL Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/06/11/nx-s1-4992064/wars-biden-presidency-ukraine-gaza\n\nPublished Time: 2024-06-11T07:00:00-04:00\n\nMarkdown Content:\nHo... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure Become Hybrid Threat to Europe (published on 2024-05-14 by jamestown.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Russia's hybrid strategy targets Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, especially energy system... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ab975d5e-aaf0-4178-a66e-f299b66df1b7", "processing_time_ms": 14157.49, "sample_id": "59676447-80a1-4d0b-86b4-b5fcce1ada55"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure Become Hybrid Threat to Europe (published on 2024-05-14 by jamestown.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Russia's hybrid strategy targets Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, especially e... |
a2942555-c38b-4ec4-9f68-a98cc3d1e6aa | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov conduct a live-fire missile strike during its stay in the Caribbean Sea before July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, TASS) report that the Admiral Gorshkov launched a live anti-ship or land-attack missile (e.g., Zircon, Kalibr) within the Caribbean Sea between June 11, 2024, and July 31, 2024. Virtual or simulated strikes do not coun... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov, along with the submarine Kazan, conducted a deployment to the Caribbean in June and July 2024. The close date for this question is 2024-07-31 and the question date is 2024-06-11. According to official reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense and international news outlets (AP, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFOyKs357PYgoKeebDZncvpyqu8ODSUK6VS6v_b4GukeiyBtKt-mTpeINtv1FvbKroTusuip4XciPgxoOrLwrBeuuktaQh_yJqEoQA8RdOX8eqzu16TOYUvBc5OaYa6dNkUx98Jv9LI8OOpYL9xLVcwywkgqpc0jtgKGk70Cgaw8-PiQhLwPwoDHIWrzVjW6-e4yN1ofBZVH8FMVXyaXhsiHWfWVRUdTQ==, https://vertexaisearch.... | THE PENTAGON – A nuclear Russian submarine carrying guided missiles with a range of 1,000 nautical miles is operating off the East Coast as part of Russian missile drills in the Atlantic.
Kazan, a Yasen-M-class guided missile submarine, is part of a naval action group the Russian Ministry of Defense deployed to the Atl... | https://news.usni.org/2024/06/11/russian-nuclear-sub-frigate-with-long-range-land-attack-missiles-operating-off-east-coast | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian fleet deployed to Caribbean Sea (published on 2024-06-07 by en.mercopress.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: A Russian naval group, including the nuclear submarine Kazan and the frigate Gorshkov, will drill with Cuban forces in the Caribbean (J... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov conduct a live-fire missile strike during its stay in the Caribbean Sea before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, TASS) report that the Ad... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov conduct a live-fire missile strike during its stay in the Caribbean Sea before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, TASS) report that the Ad... | {"date_close": "2024-07-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov conduct a live-fire missile strike during its stay in the Caribbean Sea before July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "r... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFOyKs357PYgoKeebDZncvpyqu8ODSUK6VS6v_b4GukeiyBtKt-mTpeINtv1FvbKroTusuip4XciPgxoOrLwrBeuuktaQh_yJqEoQA8RdOX8eqzu16TOYUvBc5OaYa6dNkUx98Jv9LI8OOpYL9xLVcwywkgqpc0jtgKGk70Cgaw8-PiQhLwPwoDHIWrzVjW6-e4yN1ofBZVH... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "THE PENTAGON – A nuclear Russian submarine carrying guided missiles with a range of 1,000 nautical miles is operating off the East Coast as part of Russian missile drills in the Atlantic.\nKazan, a Yasen-M-class guided missile... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian fleet deployed to Caribbean Sea (published on 2024-06-07 by en.mercopress.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A Russian naval group, including the nuclear submarine Kazan and the frigate Gorshkov, will drill with Cuban forces in the Caribbean... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 19103.451, "sample_id": "363bdbbc-0bc0-4c4e-bab0-89e49ffa58b1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian fleet deployed to Caribbean Sea (published on 2024-06-07 by en.mercopress.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A Russian naval group, including the nuclear submarine Kazan and the frigate Gorshkov, will drill with Cuban forces in t... |
adec7c62-918e-48b9-931f-9213eb7f075b | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct a successful strike against a glide-bomb-equipped Russian Su-34 aircraft while it is located on the ground at an airbase within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if satellite imagery or official military confirmation from Ukraine or Russia acknowledges the destruction or significant damage of at least one Sukhoi Su-34 at a Russian airbase (e.g., Morozovsk or Malyashev) due to Ukrainian drone or missile strikes. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine conducted multiple successful strikes against Russian Su-34 aircraft on the ground within Russia's internationally recognized borders between the question date (2024-06-11) and the close date (2024-11-01). On August 3, 2024, a strike on the Morozovsk airbase in the Rostov region resulted in the destruction of a... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQENnVdrFYqGfaTIKxtmKHdbxx6ztXvRYc-dtDsxOK1n_ZSTmLFnmzkBvttWVniXdqfVxNAtEgi4i936IRvS4CsZOgn101NhLb8BXIIwXjn4lkD6C30kGhJC_c3SfDm5DTMIYvyxrbM1f-gszvI=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG4QwW7I7bRClbKKlbIBiMLHBRdwkgPEVb8... | Since the launch of the full-scale invasion, Russia has deployed more than 10,000 strategic and operational-tactical missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and about 29,000 glide bombs against Ukraine, destroying lives and vital civilian infrastructure.
The Kremlin has disabled or destroyed around 90% of the cap... | https://cepa.org/article/saving-ukraines-power-supply/ | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine reportedly damaged a Russian Su-57 near Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, using one-way attack (O... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a successful strike against a glide-bomb-equipped Russian Su-34 aircraft while it is located on the ground at an airbase within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves t... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a successful strike against a glide-bomb-equipped Russian Su-34 aircraft while it is located on the ground at an airbase within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves t... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct a successful strike against a glide-bomb-equipped Russian Su-34 aircraft while it is located on the ground at an airbase within the internationally recognized borde... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQENnVdrFYqGfaTIKxtmKHdbxx6ztXvRYc-dtDsxOK1n_ZSTmLFnmzkBvttWVniXdqfVxNAtEgi4i936IRvS4CsZOgn101NhLb8BXIIwXjn4lkD6C30kGhJC_c3SfDm5DTMIYvyxrbM1f-gszvI=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-r... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Since the launch of the full-scale invasion, Russia has deployed more than 10,000 strategic and operational-tactical missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and about 29,000 glide bombs against Ukraine, destroying lives ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine reportedly damaged a Russian Su-57 near Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, using one-way attack... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "6dd51887-facc-47cf-b2a4-55b0fdb88d2c", "processing_time_ms": 10923.32, "sample_id": "5b9a5023-eebb-409c-978c-4430e33166ab"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine reportedly damaged a Russian Su-57 near Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, using on... |
b2633680-d118-42dd-b2d8-27428f16e377 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Germany officially confirm the delivery of all 100 promised Patriot guided-missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the German government's official 'Military support for Ukraine' list or a public statement from the German Defense Ministry confirms that the full shipment of 100 Patriot guided-missiles announced in June 2024 has been transferred to Ukraine by the end of 2024. | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On June 11, 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany, in cooperation with Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, would provide 100 additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine. At the time of the announcement, 32 missiles had already been delivered. On July 12, 2024, Major General Christian Freudin... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHziXk1olFXpxHqr_1Yn_3w3DyJSMAWJ4hKtJ3N85pT_aaWr4bn9Ob5u4rhiw9e6D_qSDGeitIXSIoYp_Ecv8ADLKvyrJqGty-C5BvH2pclrkdLSxT_NnyS0DTobyhAlmGDCyFggWHqUhhKGm_hbRNTeO6of9TtB6mmuJ_iQQ0tPLx3Uxo7hrv8J4rMDA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redir... | Germany to Deliver Patriot Missiles, Strike Drones to Ukraine
- Latest package comes during visit by President Zelenskiy
- Ukraine's power network has suffered from Russian attacks
This article is for subscribers only.
Germany will deliver several thousands strike drones and 100 additional Patriot guided-missiles to Uk... | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/germany-to-deliver-patriot-missiles-strike-drones-to-ukraine | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Power Station Bombing Redoubles Pressure on Ukraine (published on 2024-06-05 by fpif.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Russia's three-month bombing campaign has severely damaged Ukraine's electricity generation, destroying much of its thermal and hydr... | QUESTION:
Will Germany officially confirm the delivery of all 100 promised Patriot guided-missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the German government's official 'Military support for Ukraine' list or a public statement from the German... | QUESTION:
Will Germany officially confirm the delivery of all 100 promised Patriot guided-missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the German government's official 'Military support for Ukraine' list or a public statement from the German... | {"date_close": "2025-01-05T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Germany officially confirm the delivery of all 100 promised Patriot guided-missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_crit... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHziXk1olFXpxHqr_1Yn_3w3DyJSMAWJ4hKtJ3N85pT_aaWr4bn9Ob5u4rhiw9e6D_qSDGeitIXSIoYp_Ecv8ADLKvyrJqGty-C5BvH2pclrkdLSxT_NnyS0DTobyhAlmGDCyFggWHqUhhKGm_hbRNTeO6of9TtB6mmuJ_iQQ0tPLx3Uxo7hrv8J4rMDA==, https://ver... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Germany to Deliver Patriot Missiles, Strike Drones to Ukraine\n- Latest package comes during visit by President Zelenskiy\n- Ukraine's power network has suffered from Russian attacks\nThis article is for subscribers only.\nGer... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Power Station Bombing Redoubles Pressure on Ukraine (published on 2024-06-05 by fpif.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Russia's three-month bombing campaign has severely damaged Ukraine's electricity generation, destroying much of its thermal and h... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "9f2af982-2960-4bb3-bc2d-65d86fb16857", "processing_time_ms": 10582.077, "sample_id": "865316f2-bb66-4e2e-81e0-c2c4862e59b8"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Power Station Bombing Redoubles Pressure on Ukraine (published on 2024-06-05 by fpif.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Russia's three-month bombing campaign has severely damaged Ukraine's electricity generation, destroying much of its t... |
b689fe9b-a151-43c3-a7ae-dac1dabc7e69 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces sink a commercial or merchant vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-18T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a commercial ship (tanker, bulk carrier, or container ship) sinks as a direct result of a Houthi-claimed or Houthi-attributed missile, drone, or naval attack, as verified by maritime authorities like the UKMTO or international news agencies. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The MV Tutor, a commercial bulk carrier, was attacked by Houthi forces using an explosive-laden unmanned surface vehicle and missiles on June 12, 2024, in the Red Sea. Following the attack, the vessel suffered severe flooding and was abandoned. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and international nava... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFgeKBHfuwDSqBLiepn-Vo9EQU6prf1JTTUzowjiR9pgCZ9S9Lh7YSpihj8EZBrHkIdzkvFxV7jOCi0ytf7FnX37m0nIXK_T8fdwD7zYp5AanYjhN5hwMUSjcR2gvsK-anaaES--HrxiLzZLZ6oDUabNkZZRSSKuZUBdRMsqP4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3m7HxgFFH... | INTELBRIEF
June 11, 2024
IntelBrief: Houthis Strike at Domestic and Foreign Adversaries
Bottom Line Up Front
- The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen has sought to demonstrate strength against its domestic and global adversaries in the face of Western military pressure.
- The Houthis continue to attack commercial sh... | https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-june-11/ | 2024-06-11T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Maritime Global Trade Roundup – May 17, 2024 (published on 2024-05-17 by windward.ai) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Houthi rebels attacked Red Sea shipping, claiming strikes on a US destroyer and the commercial vessel *Destiny* on May 15. Previous Hout... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces sink a commercial or merchant vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if a commercial ship (tanker, bulk carrier, or container ship) sinks as a direct result of a Houthi-c... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces sink a commercial or merchant vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-11
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if a commercial ship (tanker, bulk carrier, or container ship) sinks as a direct result of a Houthi-c... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces sink a commercial or merchant vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resol... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFgeKBHfuwDSqBLiepn-Vo9EQU6prf1JTTUzowjiR9pgCZ9S9Lh7YSpihj8EZBrHkIdzkvFxV7jOCi0ytf7FnX37m0nIXK_T8fdwD7zYp5AanYjhN5hwMUSjcR2gvsK-anaaES--HrxiLzZLZ6oDUabNkZZRSSKuZUBdRMsqP4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-11T00:00:00", "seed_text": "INTELBRIEF\nJune 11, 2024\nIntelBrief: Houthis Strike at Domestic and Foreign Adversaries\nBottom Line Up Front\n- The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen has sought to demonstrate strength against its domestic and global a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Maritime Global Trade Roundup – May 17, 2024 (published on 2024-05-17 by windward.ai) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels attacked Red Sea shipping, claiming strikes on a US destroyer and the commercial vessel *Destiny* on May 15. Previous H... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "2a5d3a34-d161-4a9e-9cb1-4cc638f9ded6", "processing_time_ms": 13642.054999999998, "sample_id": "dc1be1de-533c-4589-ba49-9748d88caa18"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Maritime Global Trade Roundup – May 17, 2024 (published on 2024-05-17 by windward.ai) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels attacked Red Sea shipping, claiming strikes on a US destroyer and the commercial vessel *Destiny* on May 15... |
0392f9d7-8e6a-453a-89cb-bcafe37f1aa5 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States or a NATO member state officially announce the delivery of at least one additional Patriot missile battery to Ukraine before August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-20T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 13, 2024, and August 31, 2024, an official government representative of a NATO member nation or the US Department of Defense publicly announces the official transfer or arrival of at least one complete Patriot air defense battery (not just individual interceptors) to Ukra... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-12) and the close date (2024-09-01), several official announcements were made by NATO members regarding the delivery of additional Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine. Most notably, on June 20, 2024, Romania's Supreme Council of National Defense officially announced the donation of o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFIFrNWnpC9mAvCP10RccF7MswFKNHY453uh_jMwR2kScijRgKvu_lqyluIawaOl0gMILt7vI2T_SMwsZQiA5uIrZrYCwxenuTkY8KcPr0rpIC41Gh3pb00sXcZholkfOgqiO--kUGmWHZbywnmQuZbHg9LK3Xw2ziddn7PQNUtcP_OUs4AbUAvLwVPXnec92ICacTdlJkVAad3bC0yAbphBkVQZHwN1IEtJ1bqtLpfSqqk5mc=, https:/... | Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials
At least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.
Ukraine's prosecutor general's office says five children are among the injured after a residential building wa... | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22kzp0m0zo | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Netherlands leads initiative to deliver Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as soon as possible (published on 2024-05-28 by militarnyi.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: The Netherlands is leading an initiative, with Ministry of Defense confirmation... | QUESTION:
Will the United States or a NATO member state officially announce the delivery of at least one additional Patriot missile battery to Ukraine before August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 13, 2024, and August 31, 2024, an official govern... | QUESTION:
Will the United States or a NATO member state officially announce the delivery of at least one additional Patriot missile battery to Ukraine before August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between June 13, 2024, and August 31, 2024, an official govern... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States or a NATO member state officially announce the delivery of at least one additional Patriot missile battery to Ukraine before August 31, 2024?", "question_type": "... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFIFrNWnpC9mAvCP10RccF7MswFKNHY453uh_jMwR2kScijRgKvu_lqyluIawaOl0gMILt7vI2T_SMwsZQiA5uIrZrYCwxenuTkY8KcPr0rpIC41Gh3pb00sXcZholkfOgqiO--kUGmWHZbywnmQuZbHg9LK3Xw2ziddn7PQNUtcP_OUs4AbUAvLwVPXnec92ICacTdlJkVA... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials\nAt least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.\nUkraine's pros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Netherlands leads initiative to deliver Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as soon as possible (published on 2024-05-28 by militarnyi.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The Netherlands is leading an initiative, with Ministry of Defense confirmat... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "13fe9923-810e-41a9-b44e-d1fb1c77cb1e", "processing_time_ms": 10000.972000000002, "sample_id": "86c41f60-7e0d-4324-8daa-90d956c59786"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Netherlands leads initiative to deliver Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as soon as possible (published on 2024-05-28 by militarnyi.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The Netherlands is leading an initiative, with Ministry of Defen... |
29996160-97ef-48e5-97ed-fb71849f004a | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will a US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone be involved in a kinetic incident with Russian forces over the Black Sea before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a US RQ-4 Global Hawk is shot down, forced to crash, or physically struck by a Russian aircraft or surface-to-air missile in the Black Sea region between June 12 and August 31, 2024. 'Kinetic incident' implies physical damage or loss of the aircraft; near-misses or standard interceptio... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 12, 2024, and the close date of September 1, 2024, there were no verified kinetic incidents involving a US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk and Russian forces over the Black Sea. Although pro-Russian military bloggers and some Russian media outlets (such as the 'Fighterbomber' Telegram chann... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGXu25O2IW-88FxBpEf1mBnw8S1t8ohU89_yGdW_bV9WbH5v5pj9O545ixH9hWkEtNXD7S6UBxQ_uJVTSz51G7oghVSCkxJ2AYtXKjmm9HHhFOc3ODLK6uHIdW2Uu0qNpo3MbG8AZRdEdghfaXvnratUPgePzRN980KrDN3ruu2bPHLuUw5NNjSOce9x64bLsfWazRNgm9HolxKa3mpoHUQgZoTvm8BXPFAB3qCGfQIkEoE12A=, https:/... | A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy planes in airspace near Russian-occupied territory at the same time as Ukrainian forces hit ta... | https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34185 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Phantom skies: A U.S. RQ-4B drone was lost over the Black Sea (published on 2024-06-04 by bulgarianmilitary.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: A U.S. Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk (FORTE12, 10-2045), departing from Italy and conducting reconnaissance nea... | QUESTION:
Will a US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone be involved in a kinetic incident with Russian forces over the Black Sea before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a US RQ-4 Global Hawk is shot down, forced to crash, or physically struck by a Russian... | QUESTION:
Will a US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone be involved in a kinetic incident with Russian forces over the Black Sea before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a US RQ-4 Global Hawk is shot down, forced to crash, or physically struck by a Russian... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will a US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone be involved in a kinetic incident with Russian forces over the Black Sea before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTIO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGXu25O2IW-88FxBpEf1mBnw8S1t8ohU89_yGdW_bV9WbH5v5pj9O545ixH9hWkEtNXD7S6UBxQ_uJVTSz51G7oghVSCkxJ2AYtXKjmm9HHhFOc3ODLK6uHIdW2Uu0qNpo3MbG8AZRdEdghfaXvnratUPgePzRN980KrDN3ruu2bPHLuUw5NNjSOce9x64bLsfWazRNgm9Ho... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Phantom skies: A U.S. RQ-4B drone was lost over the Black Sea (published on 2024-06-04 by bulgarianmilitary.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A U.S. Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk (FORTE12, 10-2045), departing from Italy and conducting reconnaissance ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7d56802a-7c45-4b57-80a3-b7bd579ea533", "processing_time_ms": 9673.472, "sample_id": "f6db560d-84e6-4221-ae90-568fb5171f28"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Phantom skies: A U.S. RQ-4B drone was lost over the Black Sea (published on 2024-06-04 by bulgarianmilitary.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A U.S. Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk (FORTE12, 10-2045), departing from Italy and conducting rec... |
3f1e6cca-4311-475d-9f5b-631b172b1757 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) deploy at least one aircraft carrier (Shandong or Liaoning) to participate in a military exercise in the Philippine Sea or east of Taiwan before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-09T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an active PLA Navy aircraft carrier is confirmed by satellite imagery or official defense ministry reports (PRC, ROC, or Japan) to be conducting flight operations or drills in the Philippine Sea or the Pacific waters east of Taiwan's 121st meridian east between June 13, 2024, and October... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The PLA deployed both aircraft carriers to the specified regions between the question date (2024-06-12) and the close date (2024-11-01). The Shandong carrier group entered the Philippine Sea for a far seas exercise in early July 2024, with Japan's Ministry of Defense confirming its presence and flight operations starti... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHPcwJI-nqCQDFXb8Foxg5d-3iOSYHtEKaJ4lNdkGiBIpOEaH8urgwmQue1yboWO2iEbEhHR9V9qEzUxYaJ6M5BENIJszKpaZGRrltRtSdz_86HRYAvhNYozhDOwmZP9vTtZwqYXAeTjTOZ44WbIAqg0uebeEaxN0jN2y3-BA1BYApeHycYqwpM9QL3OjYjVNMD_MTISHHjUmTDwcxIoKOUX5QxHGsUF1BJweqEQnCl6sHcNxzR3giedaoUv... | On May 23, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched a two-day military exercise in the wake of Republic of China (ROC) President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) May 20th inauguration. The exercise was the largest PLA exercise in the vicinity of Taiwan since April 2023, and had several notable features. First, while it was smal... | https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/06/the-plas-inauguration-gift-to-president-lai-the-joint-sword-2024a-exercise/ | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] China Kicks Off 2 Days of Military Drills Near Taiwan, USS Ronald Reagan Sails in Philippine Sea (published on 2024-05-23 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group is in the Philippine Sea while China la... | QUESTION:
Will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) deploy at least one aircraft carrier (Shandong or Liaoning) to participate in a military exercise in the Philippine Sea or east of Taiwan before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if an active PLA Navy aircraft... | QUESTION:
Will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) deploy at least one aircraft carrier (Shandong or Liaoning) to participate in a military exercise in the Philippine Sea or east of Taiwan before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to Yes if an active PLA Navy aircraft... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) deploy at least one aircraft carrier (Shandong or Liaoning) to participate in a military exercise in the Philippine Sea or east of Taiwan before ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHPcwJI-nqCQDFXb8Foxg5d-3iOSYHtEKaJ4lNdkGiBIpOEaH8urgwmQue1yboWO2iEbEhHR9V9qEzUxYaJ6M5BENIJszKpaZGRrltRtSdz_86HRYAvhNYozhDOwmZP9vTtZwqYXAeTjTOZ44WbIAqg0uebeEaxN0jN2y3-BA1BYApeHycYqwpM9QL3OjYjVNMD_MTISHHjU... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "On May 23, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched a two-day military exercise in the wake of Republic of China (ROC) President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) May 20th inauguration. The exercise was the largest PLA exercise in the ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] China Kicks Off 2 Days of Military Drills Near Taiwan, USS Ronald Reagan Sails in Philippine Sea (published on 2024-05-23 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group is in the Philippine Sea while China... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 14445.468, "sample_id": "f67a2052-3d22-41b9-bfca-1a8238e797ff"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] China Kicks Off 2 Days of Military Drills Near Taiwan, USS Ronald Reagan Sails in Philippine Sea (published on 2024-05-23 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group is in the Philippine Sea... |
5638c663-4a07-4427-9df2-1541ddbabc63 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Ukrainian Air Force or GUR conduct a drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or fuel depot located within the borders of the Rostov Oblast in Russia before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-18T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a recorded aerial strike by Ukrainian forces (drones, missiles, or specialized sabotage units) on an oil refinery or industrial fuel storage site in the Rostov region of Russia between June 13, 2024, and August 31, 2024. Confirmation must come from official Russian regional au... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) successfully conducted drone strikes on fuel infrastructure in the Rostov Oblast between the question date (2024-06-12) and the cutoff date (2024-09-01). Specifically, on August 18, 2024, the GUR targeted the Kavkaz oil depot in Proletarsk, causing a massive fire that l... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFnpK4JYNk3-TDm26f9dOEuOmEiyEu_fMMf4q1MlSpmUEf3MWawvhGw5XIVU32YISUM5az5hqBhg9H3k7X-pWIzvIAkWMm5xPKsfELfPg4RuSiB-vU1V92qVAb_tD5zOOb6DkZ6xO4PV3F8DQLQopC0NmcSwD8wxSAUTfXWSEIrFyy-imlTI3clndbG814U5rUVXhC59UU-ag==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials
At least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.
Ukraine's prosecutor general's office says five children are among the injured after a residential building wa... | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22kzp0m0zo | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region, o... | QUESTION:
Will the Ukrainian Air Force or GUR conduct a drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or fuel depot located within the borders of the Rostov Oblast in Russia before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a recorded aerial strike by Ukra... | QUESTION:
Will the Ukrainian Air Force or GUR conduct a drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or fuel depot located within the borders of the Rostov Oblast in Russia before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a recorded aerial strike by Ukra... | {"date_close": "2024-09-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Ukrainian Air Force or GUR conduct a drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or fuel depot located within the borders of the Rostov Oblast in Russia before September 1, 2024... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFnpK4JYNk3-TDm26f9dOEuOmEiyEu_fMMf4q1MlSpmUEf3MWawvhGw5XIVU32YISUM5az5hqBhg9H3k7X-pWIzvIAkWMm5xPKsfELfPg4RuSiB-vU1V92qVAb_tD5zOOb6DkZ6xO4PV3F8DQLQopC0NmcSwD8wxSAUTfXWSEIrFyy-imlTI3clndbG814U5rUVXhC59UU-a... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials\nAt least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.\nUkraine's pros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "13fe9923-810e-41a9-b44e-d1fb1c77cb1e", "processing_time_ms": 9996.469, "sample_id": "a5cabb3d-2441-4f69-bdb1-28078dd7fbf7"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's R... |
5ac7866d-3de0-4e09-8e78-bc1eab6882ec | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct another missile or drone strike on Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five fatalities between June 15, 2024, and August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian government sources (such as the State Emergency Service of Ukraine or the Prosecutor General's Office) or credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP) report a Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih occurring between 00:00 UTC on June 15, 2024, and 23:59 UTC on Aug... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Russian Armed Forces conducted a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih on July 8, 2024, which is within the specified period (June 15, 2024, to August 15, 2024). According to official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service and local authorities, this strike resulted in at least 10 fatalities, exceeding the thres... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEK6TGbo4y0ukl5kEfUHPAVrECC5PQSrfgMxVJYSbViIHYG7VWCsPc5iiqoS4uv5B1eOkNaRv_iKs4lVJxkFOstSUd4j38RsL-Sg5ETrF9W5ZacxumIooXWvzOq8zqPUptXO2gaK3_OqT7EPIlmgdbAjS5_tCe3Pv5gAVeubO6knI7SC2IgQDvXK0W5M4b892J3zvJGgC7WdqIiSrl0wmMSiHgvEcctdfc=, https://vertexaisearch.... | Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials
At least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.
Ukraine's prosecutor general's office says five children are among the injured after a residential building wa... | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22kzp0m0zo | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Rare Video Shows A Russian Tu-22M3 Firing A Kh-32 Supersonic Air-Launched Cruise Missile (published on 2024-05-12 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Footage confirms a Russian Tu-22M3 launched a Kh-32 cruise missile during an air stri... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct another missile or drone strike on Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five fatalities between June 15, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian government sources (such as th... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct another missile or drone strike on Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five fatalities between June 15, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian government sources (such as th... | {"date_close": "2024-08-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct another missile or drone strike on Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five fatalities between June 15, 2024, and August 15, 2024?", "que... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEK6TGbo4y0ukl5kEfUHPAVrECC5PQSrfgMxVJYSbViIHYG7VWCsPc5iiqoS4uv5B1eOkNaRv_iKs4lVJxkFOstSUd4j38RsL-Sg5ETrF9W5ZacxumIooXWvzOq8zqPUptXO2gaK3_OqT7EPIlmgdbAjS5_tCe3Pv5gAVeubO6knI7SC2IgQDvXK0W5M4b892J3zvJGgC7Wd... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Russian missile strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - officials\nAt least nine people have been killed and 29 injured in a Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih, local officials say.\nUkraine's pros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rare Video Shows A Russian Tu-22M3 Firing A Kh-32 Supersonic Air-Launched Cruise Missile (published on 2024-05-12 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Footage confirms a Russian Tu-22M3 launched a Kh-32 cruise missile during an air s... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 18189.071, "sample_id": "13fe9923-810e-41a9-b44e-d1fb1c77cb1e"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rare Video Shows A Russian Tu-22M3 Firing A Kh-32 Supersonic Air-Launched Cruise Missile (published on 2024-05-12 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Footage confirms a Russian Tu-22M3 launched a Kh-32 cruise missile dur... |
663ce76e-f987-4d30-9437-4c6f04e3d87d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will there be an officially reported Russian glide bomb (UMPK or UMPB) strike on the city of Kharkiv between June 12, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 2024-06-22T00:00:00 | Resolution follows official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service or Kharkiv regional authorities of at least one strike within Kharkiv city limits attributed to Russian glide bombs (specifically UMPK or UMPB models). | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Multiple officially reported Russian glide bomb strikes occurred on the city of Kharkiv within the specified timeframe. The question date was 2024-06-12 and the close date was 2024-08-31. On June 22, 2024, Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov and Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russian forces struck the city with four mo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAmpFcWTflR_lC3oQdYlRh2BYUQT_JMcuKJwoyZdMqQrl6PgBYGCFHg59wW9mJ8X94n1BZa_AE1z1wqXaXdohmwUIMbKda21TNKG6nhSMnQJMepOjynkyuXep1ZXqHtxsbw02ToXgq2Rjc6c2lzr9qMqr2FNdV-P44wtP0soOfipdHYkmNhud4-fE2unUWGvdV2Pnm1ixiP3MB_ZNJYnRlnPQzuQfyfYVE99ztlE5dUw==, https://ver... | June 12, 2024 | The Insider
Stones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory
June 12, 2024 | The Insider
Stones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory
... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/12/stones-from-the-sky-ukraine-can-be-saved-from-constant-bombardment-only-if-the-u-s-authorizes-atacms-strikes-on-russian-territory/ | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Putin's Safe Space: Defeating Russia's Kharkiv Operation Requires Eliminating Russia's Sanctuary (published on 2024-05-13 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Current US policy prohibiting the use of American-provided weapons inside R... | QUESTION:
Will there be an officially reported Russian glide bomb (UMPK or UMPB) strike on the city of Kharkiv between June 12, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution follows official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service or Kharkiv regional authorities of at ... | QUESTION:
Will there be an officially reported Russian glide bomb (UMPK or UMPB) strike on the city of Kharkiv between June 12, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution follows official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service or Kharkiv regional authorities of at ... | {"date_close": "2024-08-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will there be an officially reported Russian glide bomb (UMPK or UMPB) strike on the city of Kharkiv between June 12, 2024, and August 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUES... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAmpFcWTflR_lC3oQdYlRh2BYUQT_JMcuKJwoyZdMqQrl6PgBYGCFHg59wW9mJ8X94n1BZa_AE1z1wqXaXdohmwUIMbKda21TNKG6nhSMnQJMepOjynkyuXep1ZXqHtxsbw02ToXgq2Rjc6c2lzr9qMqr2FNdV-P44wtP0soOfipdHYkmNhud4-fE2unUWGvdV2Pnm1ixiP... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 12, 2024 | The Insider\nStones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory\nJune 12, 2024 | The Insider\nStones from the sky. Ukraine can b... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Putin's Safe Space: Defeating Russia's Kharkiv Operation Requires Eliminating Russia's Sanctuary (published on 2024-05-13 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Current US policy prohibiting the use of American-provided weapons insid... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ba55b67f-798e-4b2c-8a8d-d424cea93511", "processing_time_ms": 14168.513, "sample_id": "3819096e-a8d8-487d-9f81-348aedbbb35c"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Putin's Safe Space: Defeating Russia's Kharkiv Operation Requires Eliminating Russia's Sanctuary (published on 2024-05-13 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Current US policy prohibiting the use of American-provided w... |
a2424ad9-a283-4661-9a25-8d047ee59cca | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine launch a missile strike involving more than 10 ATACMS missiles against a single target location in Crimea before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024, reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, US Department of Defense, or major international news outlets confirm a coordinated strike where 11 or more ATACMS missiles were fired at a single Russian military installation or geographic cl... | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On August 16, 2024, Ukraine launched a missile strike targeting the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge). The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reported that its air defenses intercepted 12 ATACMS missiles during this specific attack. This event constitutes a launch of more than 10 ATACMS missiles against a single target... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEG_9DaH3XM_OM3tWmEfmGdH3kE_l9xY5qqP-Tv_JS5CSyy62Uro_m0vD0_l5QFjHd6_kP0X54naRiHfjgXWSZfezBivsVOz1PqG0u7ImmVO30B2BCE88l2iacSTAk2Ht9zsYm7bmePs-roc5OGAuPSOQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEnDAAE1-qhVxjOEw1rrBgRloyz... | A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy planes in airspace near Russian-occupied territory at the same time as Ukrainian forces hit ta... | https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34185 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Let's Talk About Ukraine's Attack On Russian Radar Station, Air Base in Crimea with Storm Shadow, ATACMS (published on 2024-05-16 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Recent Ukrainian strikes in Crimea targeted a radar station (May 13, ... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a missile strike involving more than 10 ATACMS missiles against a single target location in Crimea before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024, reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of ... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a missile strike involving more than 10 ATACMS missiles against a single target location in Crimea before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if between June 12, 2024, and October 31, 2024, reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of ... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine launch a missile strike involving more than 10 ATACMS missiles against a single target location in Crimea before November 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUEST... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEG_9DaH3XM_OM3tWmEfmGdH3kE_l9xY5qqP-Tv_JS5CSyy62Uro_m0vD0_l5QFjHd6_kP0X54naRiHfjgXWSZfezBivsVOz1PqG0u7ImmVO30B2BCE88l2iacSTAk2Ht9zsYm7bmePs-roc5OGAuPSOQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Let's Talk About Ukraine's Attack On Russian Radar Station, Air Base in Crimea with Storm Shadow, ATACMS (published on 2024-05-16 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Recent Ukrainian strikes in Crimea targeted a radar station (May 1... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7d56802a-7c45-4b57-80a3-b7bd579ea533", "processing_time_ms": 282961.918, "sample_id": "4175e6d7-0ae4-4053-9629-ae43ddcc0c84"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Let's Talk About Ukraine's Attack On Russian Radar Station, Air Base in Crimea with Storm Shadow, ATACMS (published on 2024-05-16 by theaviationist.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Recent Ukrainian strikes in Crimea targeted a radar st... |
bd7a78c2-e2c8-4641-8023-99a8396df122 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct its first combat operation or airstrike using Western-provided F-16 fighter jets before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-04T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms the use of F-16s in a combat mission (either air-to-air or air-to-ground) or if credible footage verified by major international news outlets shows F-16s operating in a combat capacity over Ukrainian territory. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially confirmed the arrival and operational use of Western-provided F-16 fighter jets by the Ukrainian Air Force on August 4, 2024. During a public appearance marking Ukraine's Air Force Day, Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian pilots had already begun using the aircraft for ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEo-kAoiRtiMoljEuHUYo6Kkwlu8JH_vfRtaVXyvdzq0b0D-gjnOcXVytpH9xxnZGfzcb84mqFBxE7lW3ie_qU3J9-zzCxUj9q7YapiBEJZxTH-nGlQ_Bn-ZWWpGBgXl0WnFA9fES20UiNWb7U, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGo3yxHBDS2XM0QWzWoCwUXw491ImZWOHKL... | June 12, 2024 | The Insider
Stones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory
June 12, 2024 | The Insider
Stones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory
... | https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/06/12/stones-from-the-sky-ukraine-can-be-saved-from-constant-bombardment-only-if-the-u-s-authorizes-atacms-strikes-on-russian-territory/ | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine frustrated with US over F-16 pilot training (published on 2024-06-05 by politico.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine is frustrated with the US over slow F-16 pilot training, citing limited training seats in the current US pipeline despit... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct its first combat operation or airstrike using Western-provided F-16 fighter jets before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms the use of F-16s in a combat mission (either ... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct its first combat operation or airstrike using Western-provided F-16 fighter jets before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Defense confirms the use of F-16s in a combat mission (either ... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct its first combat operation or airstrike using Western-provided F-16 fighter jets before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolutio... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEo-kAoiRtiMoljEuHUYo6Kkwlu8JH_vfRtaVXyvdzq0b0D-gjnOcXVytpH9xxnZGfzcb84mqFBxE7lW3ie_qU3J9-zzCxUj9q7YapiBEJZxTH-nGlQ_Bn-ZWWpGBgXl0WnFA9fES20UiNWb7U, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-r... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "June 12, 2024 | The Insider\nStones from the sky. Ukraine can be saved from constant bombardment only if the U.S. authorizes ATACMS strikes on Russian territory\nJune 12, 2024 | The Insider\nStones from the sky. Ukraine can b... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine frustrated with US over F-16 pilot training (published on 2024-06-05 by politico.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine is frustrated with the US over slow F-16 pilot training, citing limited training seats in the current US pipeline des... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ba55b67f-798e-4b2c-8a8d-d424cea93511", "processing_time_ms": 14077.232, "sample_id": "4a264797-c747-4faf-9427-0ee5bfa124c7"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine frustrated with US over F-16 pilot training (published on 2024-06-05 by politico.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine is frustrated with the US over slow F-16 pilot training, citing limited training seats in the current US ... |
dd8dc5ab-a9ad-49d5-bd1d-8203c23c3738 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian military officially confirm the destruction of an S-400 battery in Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes by July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol (Mikhail Razvozhayev) issues a public statement or post via official channels (such as TASS or Telegram) acknowledging the loss or destruction of an S-400 system component resulting from a Ukrainian strike ... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks if the Russian military would officially confirm the destruction of an S-400 battery in Crimea between June 12, 2024, and July 15, 2024. During this period, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent sources like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported several successful strikes on Russian ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEvpXQbp6a9Pf4NQ8V-VATEeDTathEAOwbfNcKHBU1V6jKuMfuJpldDlCIop4qvzQUvo_S8hAFUlRRLRFkkjVdOd5sLigZO8k9P9I2kbJMHo8x2gNCgs0hShtMUmwsWUQtfAP_Zem9fP_x1iYkPLhYE2p3TJdHlN2GyB1bny-5u7Q6s5oFcSCLqx_Vg6D2GehtQHnF0doiT2PLP_Eqn2nJxQo--cIsr-0Uh, https://vertexaisearch.... | A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy planes in airspace near Russian-occupied territory at the same time as Ukrainian forces hit ta... | https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34185 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukrainian Military Says It Destroyed Russian Antiaircraft Systems In Crimea (published on 2024-06-10 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine struck three Russian missile systems in Crimea, including an S-400 division near Dzhankoy. Satellit... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian military officially confirm the destruction of an S-400 battery in Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes by July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol (Mikhail Razvo... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian military officially confirm the destruction of an S-400 battery in Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes by July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-12
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol (Mikhail Razvo... | {"date_close": "2024-07-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian military officially confirm the destruction of an S-400 battery in Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes by July 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "res... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEvpXQbp6a9Pf4NQ8V-VATEeDTathEAOwbfNcKHBU1V6jKuMfuJpldDlCIop4qvzQUvo_S8hAFUlRRLRFkkjVdOd5sLigZO8k9P9I2kbJMHo8x2gNCgs0hShtMUmwsWUQtfAP_Zem9fP_x1iYkPLhYE2p3TJdHlN2GyB1bny-5u7Q6s5oFcSCLqx_Vg6D2GehtQHnF0doiT2... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-12T00:00:00", "seed_text": "A US Air Force Global Hawk reconnaissance drone got unprecedentedly close to the latest round of Ukrainian missile strikes against targets in Crimea. The rare sortie placed one of the Pentagon's most capable and expensive spy ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukrainian Military Says It Destroyed Russian Antiaircraft Systems In Crimea (published on 2024-06-10 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine struck three Russian missile systems in Crimea, including an S-400 division near Dzhankoy. Satel... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7d56802a-7c45-4b57-80a3-b7bd579ea533", "processing_time_ms": 9998.885, "sample_id": "a7d97d83-d4e0-4f61-a6bd-4e4130efe541"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukrainian Military Says It Destroyed Russian Antiaircraft Systems In Crimea (published on 2024-06-10 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine struck three Russian missile systems in Crimea, including an S-400 division near Dzh... |
0be033ec-cf31-469d-a789-425759d29aca | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with an anti-ship ballistic missile before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if US Central Command (CENTCOM) or the Pentagon confirms that a US Navy vessel was physically impacted by an anti-ship ballistic missile launched by Houthi forces between June 14, 2024, and August 31, 2024. Near misses or interceptions do not count; physical impact is required. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date is 2024-09-02, and the question date is 2024-06-13. Based on official reports from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as independent maritime analysis, no U.S. Navy vessel was successfully struck by a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) before September 1, 20... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGrZ650Ra23HPz-7gFCv7kSW37LkDIGHVVDhdzC-fdOvPfNrDkekTWcBPnZq1ypEz4g6c63gKM1ff5KxybyIWKxLqye7dGRoaAYCin2TiS3wjd8xofXpA_0Jfoike58adJ8_iWtqG_DqibUf0Kla3QvPqyfD4UbFV2fAAZ1A8cbhRB-GIl1N-2M, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZI... | <html lang="en"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'c','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMA9jYz8dtvrSYA9OII_w... | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-attacked-9-israeli-military-sites-with-rockets-drones-2024-06-13/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] What we know on Houthis' latest Ghadr anti-ship Iranian ballistic missile (published on 2024-05-29 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Iran claims Houthi rebels obtained technology to build anti-ship ballistic missiles, similar to Iran's G... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with an anti-ship ballistic missile before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if US Central Command (CENTCOM) or the Pentagon confirms that a US Navy vessel was physic... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with an anti-ship ballistic missile before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if US Central Command (CENTCOM) or the Pentagon confirms that a US Navy vessel was physic... | {"date_close": "2024-09-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with an anti-ship ballistic missile before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTIO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGrZ650Ra23HPz-7gFCv7kSW37LkDIGHVVDhdzC-fdOvPfNrDkekTWcBPnZq1ypEz4g6c63gKM1ff5KxybyIWKxLqye7dGRoaAYCin2TiS3wjd8xofXpA_0Jfoike58adJ8_iWtqG_DqibUf0Kla3QvPqyfD4UbFV2fAAZ1A8cbhRB-GIl1N-2M, https://vertexaisea... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What we know on Houthis' latest Ghadr anti-ship Iranian ballistic missile (published on 2024-05-29 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Iran claims Houthi rebels obtained technology to build anti-ship ballistic missiles, similar to Iran'... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "eb7ab5db-4b4a-46d8-8048-61c37998d336", "processing_time_ms": 14074.630000000001, "sample_id": "0a9835f5-7504-4273-8452-834fc735f12a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What we know on Houthis' latest Ghadr anti-ship Iranian ballistic missile (published on 2024-05-29 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Iran claims Houthi rebels obtained technology to build anti-ship ballistic missiles, simi... |
3208eee5-cc4b-43f4-960a-39c0ec7d70c8 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike targeting the Lebanese city of Baalbek between June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially confirms or credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) report that the Israeli military conducted an aerial bombardment within the city limits of Baalbek, Lebanon, between the dates of June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024, inclusive. | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike targeting the Baalbek area within the specified window (June 14, 2024, to July 31, 2024). Specifically, on July 6, 2024, an Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in the Shaat area of the Baalbek district, approximately 15 kilometers from the city, killing a seni... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHN62wIb2H7lyM-RUjG4Q0arY0qruGN-z7RhaCNFqvQYhK2OzVSdIyfaHiQtUqk4sA5GuY894ZdeISoxae0ZUAyblISc8aLWccWHsD8s1CKcK5_gjg-Fpe6LdF88OEzl5R7nxc3kSjyhwF10C3aDQzDuWEs99Op-453K4eUO6qZ5FbLVRdmeDWNfdFD92jvNO2ynnEc, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | <html lang="en"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'c','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMA9jYz8dtvrSYA9OII_w... | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-attacked-9-israeli-military-sites-with-rockets-drones-2024-06-13/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Pentagon hosts Lebanon's army chief in bid to avert Israel-Hezbollah war (published on 2024-06-12 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Lebanon's Army Chief Gen. Joseph Aoun visited Washington amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah border conflict... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike targeting the Lebanese city of Baalbek between June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially confirms or credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, ... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike targeting the Lebanese city of Baalbek between June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially confirms or credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, ... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike targeting the Lebanese city of Baalbek between June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION"... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHN62wIb2H7lyM-RUjG4Q0arY0qruGN-z7RhaCNFqvQYhK2OzVSdIyfaHiQtUqk4sA5GuY894ZdeISoxae0ZUAyblISc8aLWccWHsD8s1CKcK5_gjg-Fpe6LdF88OEzl5R7nxc3kSjyhwF10C3aDQzDuWEs99Op-453K4eUO6qZ5FbLVRdmeDWNfdFD92jvNO2ynnEc, htt... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pentagon hosts Lebanon's army chief in bid to avert Israel-Hezbollah war (published on 2024-06-12 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Lebanon's Army Chief Gen. Joseph Aoun visited Washington amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah border confl... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 16396.315000000002, "sample_id": "eb7ab5db-4b4a-46d8-8048-61c37998d336"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pentagon hosts Lebanon's army chief in bid to avert Israel-Hezbollah war (published on 2024-06-12 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Lebanon's Army Chief Gen. Joseph Aoun visited Washington amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah ... |
405a58e1-1ce7-471b-a13b-9a18d5b3b5d2 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Hezbollah launch a drone or missile strike that hits the port of Haifa in Israel before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a confirmed impact of a projectile (missile, rocket, or UAV) launched by Hezbollah on the infrastructure of the Port of Haifa between June 14, 2024, and September 1, 2024. Interceptions that do not result in impact at the port do not count. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date for this question is 2024-09-01, and the question date is 2024-06-13. Based on reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and international media, Hezbollah did not hit the Port of Haifa with a drone or missile strike during this period. Although Hezbollah released surveillance footage of the port capt... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpSsP65DwhHAQFGuwKUhmYrtQLy0EziLbsThbNJ7zeJ5LKesWNOunQFKpl0lqCvK_pq_Re-Rr2GBEtsLeGDeSpTMmgIQpMev7JLHpCwhIGRyUBNkReSH0lGOUKb7bjAEK6q7pqQORWoxJ2q-g= | It began without warning. "Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments."
This was the scene at around 11 a.m. on Saturday, June 8 in central Gaza's Nuseirat refugee camp. Aerial bombardment, ... | https://www.972mag.com/nuseirat-camp-israeli-hostages-massacre-gaza/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Hezbollah could deploy up to 8,000 rockets and missiles at Israel (published on 2024-06-12 by jpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Hezbollah's arsenal now includes thousands of precision missiles (out of 75,000 total) and around 2,500 UAVs, accordi... | QUESTION:
Will Hezbollah launch a drone or missile strike that hits the port of Haifa in Israel before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a confirmed impact of a projectile (missile, rocket, or UAV) launched by Hezbollah on the infrastructure of... | QUESTION:
Will Hezbollah launch a drone or missile strike that hits the port of Haifa in Israel before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is a confirmed impact of a projectile (missile, rocket, or UAV) launched by Hezbollah on the infrastructure of... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Hezbollah launch a drone or missile strike that hits the port of Haifa in Israel before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "Th... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpSsP65DwhHAQFGuwKUhmYrtQLy0EziLbsThbNJ7zeJ5LKesWNOunQFKpl0lqCvK_pq_Re-Rr2GBEtsLeGDeSpTMmgIQpMev7JLHpCwhIGRyUBNkReSH0lGOUKb7bjAEK6q7pqQORWoxJ2q-g=", "answer_type": "binary", "label": "0", "label_confiden... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "It began without warning. \"Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments.\"\nThis was the scene a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Hezbollah could deploy up to 8,000 rockets and missiles at Israel (published on 2024-06-12 by jpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah's arsenal now includes thousands of precision missiles (out of 75,000 total) and around 2,500 UAVs, acco... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7b16d01e-167b-4f26-ab3f-be2bc43df786", "processing_time_ms": 14151.632, "sample_id": "e91f220e-4427-45b5-8af1-a3c1b32f4894"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Hezbollah could deploy up to 8,000 rockets and missiles at Israel (published on 2024-06-12 by jpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah's arsenal now includes thousands of precision missiles (out of 75,000 total) and around 2,50... |
44b620bc-93fb-43fb-b705-68013d705039 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful strike against a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system located in Crimea between June 20, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims a strike on an S-400 system in Crimea and this is supported by satellite imagery, visual evidence (OSINT), or independent reporting from news agencies like Reuters or ISW within the timeframe. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike against a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system in Crimea within the specified timeframe. On August 2, 2024, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and independent monitoring sources confirmed a strike in the Sevastopol area (Kaya-Bash heights) that success... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE078c4RyRSitlyISvhPXDy9HyVnww2IGovjOV_-n8f-oDAmAmX1VzEe56SbnyDYKKUkV1t1LBXXYrznm7szkMpJfIRmjkAG8uayg7Z12zjLf6WbRQfFlEOMCoPAeBDMAqe3nWvbq4Lkzz7a7LjOdBRnAbFDt-sSiw=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEyf3WSl2shBsiWUN4D... | -
A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damaged an administrative building and an apartment block, Ukraine's military command said on the Tel... | https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-strike-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-kills-nine-including-five-children | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia's Belbek Airbase In Crimea Hammered By Ukrainian Long-Range Strike (Updated) (published on 2024-05-15 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Ukrainian forces heavily attacked the Russian airbase at Belbek in occupied Crimea, reportedly using ... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful strike against a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system located in Crimea between June 20, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims a stri... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful strike against a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system located in Crimea between June 20, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims a stri... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful strike against a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system located in Crimea between June 20, 2024, and August 31, 2024?", "question_type": ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE078c4RyRSitlyISvhPXDy9HyVnww2IGovjOV_-n8f-oDAmAmX1VzEe56SbnyDYKKUkV1t1LBXXYrznm7szkMpJfIRmjkAG8uayg7Z12zjLf6WbRQfFlEOMCoPAeBDMAqe3nWvbq4Lkzz7a7LjOdBRnAbFDt-sSiw=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "-\nA Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damage... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's Belbek Airbase In Crimea Hammered By Ukrainian Long-Range Strike (Updated) (published on 2024-05-15 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces heavily attacked the Russian airbase at Belbek in occupied Crimea, reportedly usi... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d194400f-646e-4cfb-a0aa-ed60d96f4019", "processing_time_ms": 9673.012, "sample_id": "a281fc57-78bf-4b97-a58c-ae7d28f07b75"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia's Belbek Airbase In Crimea Hammered By Ukrainian Long-Range Strike (Updated) (published on 2024-05-15 by twz.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian forces heavily attacked the Russian airbase at Belbek in occupied Crimea, re... |
4793d9e7-5ecb-442f-9799-15f73bee53b1 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike on an oil refinery located within the Moscow Oblast of Russia before October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-10-02T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible reports of a Ukrainian-operated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) causing a fire or damage to an oil refinery facility located within the administrative borders of Moscow Oblast between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On September 1, 2024, Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery in the Kapotnya district. While the refinery is administratively located within the City of Moscow (a separate federal subject), the city is an enclave within the Moscow Oblast, and the facility is the sole refinery se... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHL0BwkB1z7uLPZFIvFRKfVj4BAA8Uk_JP3mQGDGBHVag8YxIJfL0jrMdGDj-B__1lY9BYZKLjV7305ZWTSKqh4tRP0oPDUwj9yn1FvmRSx48PxGt11ZLAAVzT5biwABUsO6CkJip7w8R46vvX5aYUY, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF70-J7HfbyXhb3HN_yxpQmKbRAEif6... | <html lang="en"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'c','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMA9jYz8dtvrSYA9OII_w... | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-attacked-9-israeli-military-sites-with-rockets-drones-2024-06-13/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike on an oil refinery located within the Moscow Oblast of Russia before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible reports of a Ukrainian-operated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) causi... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike on an oil refinery located within the Moscow Oblast of Russia before October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible reports of a Ukrainian-operated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) causi... | {"date_close": "2024-10-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike on an oil refinery located within the Moscow Oblast of Russia before October 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTIO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHL0BwkB1z7uLPZFIvFRKfVj4BAA8Uk_JP3mQGDGBHVag8YxIJfL0jrMdGDj-B__1lY9BYZKLjV7305ZWTSKqh4tRP0oPDUwj9yn1FvmRSx48PxGt11ZLAAVzT5biwABUsO6CkJip7w8R46vvX5aYUY, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "Ukraine drone strike Moscow Oblast refinery news; Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries; Ukrainian drone range and capability analysis 2024"}] | null | {"parent_sample_id": "eb7ab5db-4b4a-46d8-8048-61c37998d336", "processing_time_ms": 14074.881, "sample_id": "3bfea756-e3dd-48ff-b5cc-b07409cf10c0"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "Ukraine drone strike Moscow Oblast refinery news; Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries; Ukrainian drone range and capability analysis 2024"}], "id": "4793d9e7-5ecb-442f-9799-15f73bee53b1", "is_valid": true, "label": {"a... | |
5c79d5e7-adb5-4e08-bd89-b3009443a136 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Federation conduct a ballistic or cruise missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five reported fatalities between June 20, 2024, and July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian government sources (such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the Governor of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) or major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC) report a Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih occurring within the specified dates that causes 5 or more deat... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 8, 2024, the Russian Federation launched a major missile strike across Ukraine. In Kryvyi Rih, a strike hit an administrative building of an industrial plant. According to official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service and the Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, Oleksandr Vilkul, this specific ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKhLt5MyL64EHA3-SntVVyynBa3cCm3dPyZbKMSVgwnsKPcXrfj37uT_VIVB_zSDmV7fL2hq8kTB7Wbwbx2xjyLA7Gi9w0_z_n6fMZ50hKiwT4_tZZlptmzWP4bFOm1FnBYuz5U8pGMe4zyN8uKh_8y14Wqy5-lAUQfPa0R2cNIc87EfygRtwE8A9X1VFvMBnPHrve47Nwxklil8ljMYFCxLsJmjcgi9I=, https://vertexaisearch.... | -
A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damaged an administrative building and an apartment block, Ukraine's military command said on the Tel... | https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-strike-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-kills-nine-including-five-children | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - Ukraine officials (published on 2024-06-12 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky's hometown, killed nine people and injured 29, including fiv... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Federation conduct a ballistic or cruise missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five reported fatalities between June 20, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian governme... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Federation conduct a ballistic or cruise missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five reported fatalities between June 20, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian governme... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Federation conduct a ballistic or cruise missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, that results in at least five reported fatalities between June 20, 2024, and... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHKhLt5MyL64EHA3-SntVVyynBa3cCm3dPyZbKMSVgwnsKPcXrfj37uT_VIVB_zSDmV7fL2hq8kTB7Wbwbx2xjyLA7Gi9w0_z_n6fMZ50hKiwT4_tZZlptmzWP4bFOm1FnBYuz5U8pGMe4zyN8uKh_8y14Wqy5-lAUQfPa0R2cNIc87EfygRtwE8A9X1VFvMBnPHrve47Nwx... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "-\nA Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damage... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - Ukraine officials (published on 2024-06-12 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky's hometown, killed nine people and injured 29, including ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 18190.449, "sample_id": "d194400f-646e-4cfb-a0aa-ed60d96f4019"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian strike kills 9 in Zelensky's hometown - Ukraine officials (published on 2024-06-12 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky's hometown, killed nine people and injured 29... |
68f44d83-cc00-40ec-9d4d-9c3c9f02a57b | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russia launch a hypersonic Zircon (Tsirkon) or Kinzhal missile strike against the city of Kyiv before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm through wreckage analysis or official reporting that a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal or 3M22 Zircon missile was launched at and reached the Kyiv metropolitan area during the specified timeframe. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks whether Russia would launch a hypersonic Zircon or Kinzhal missile strike against the city of Kyiv between June 13, 2024, and September 1, 2024. Multiple documented events confirm that such strikes occurred within this timeframe. On June 14, 2024, the day after the question was posed, a Kinzhal missil... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGXceDhhEAU2uvt7Iw5fDkFOL_uXnVR8L3hszBFH5OVM0kwlyGN-xz-suS4qRime35LejPBzoo5rj46nvzkMoY8f6N0H7LELWsLruvGR6DOpD0VYTqQVsgdV-2mz6c3iPLnChOunaQM1dXoRA7TdlGpdC2Gkqg9dLFNbOWo8XzD7UAaP8xhIcA5J7wpdo6KM4K2JXipNqhj | -
A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damaged an administrative building and an apartment block, Ukraine's military command said on the Tel... | https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-strike-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-kills-nine-including-five-children | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined over the last six months (46% vs. 73% p... | QUESTION:
Will Russia launch a hypersonic Zircon (Tsirkon) or Kinzhal missile strike against the city of Kyiv before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm through wreckage analysis or official... | QUESTION:
Will Russia launch a hypersonic Zircon (Tsirkon) or Kinzhal missile strike against the city of Kyiv before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or independent military analysts confirm through wreckage analysis or official... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russia launch a hypersonic Zircon (Tsirkon) or Kinzhal missile strike against the city of Kyiv before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGXceDhhEAU2uvt7Iw5fDkFOL_uXnVR8L3hszBFH5OVM0kwlyGN-xz-suS4qRime35LejPBzoo5rj46nvzkMoY8f6N0H7LELWsLruvGR6DOpD0VYTqQVsgdV-2mz6c3iPLnChOunaQM1dXoRA7TdlGpdC2Gkqg9dLFNbOWo8XzD7UAaP8xhIcA5J7wpdo6KM4K2JXipNqhj"... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "-\nA Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damage... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined over the last six months (46% vs. 73... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d194400f-646e-4cfb-a0aa-ed60d96f4019", "processing_time_ms": 10385.687, "sample_id": "3e7711c9-bc5a-4c1e-a9c4-5c040274baf3"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] WSJ: Ukraine's Missile Interception Rate Falls to 30% Amid Surge in Russian Attacks (published on 2024-05-14 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine's missile interception rate has sharply declined over the last six months... |
7ad83ee7-3b80-465f-b049-a8740f088427 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States military conduct airstrikes or missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the month of July 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) or US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirms that US forces conducted at least one kinetic strike (airstrike or ship/sub-launched missile) against Houthi-controlled infrastructure, weapons, or personnel in Yemen between July 1, 2024, and July 31, 202... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The United States military, specifically USCENTCOM, conducted multiple documented strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the month of July 2024. Notable dates include July 1 (destruction of a radar site), July 11 (airstrikes in Ras Issa), July 12 (strikes on Hodeida International Airport), and July 24 (destruct... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHE37FZf-N5U5BzJJApI9VSy702f00oqZkM2ePAzfRDXYGwPX2e_ST2kUAAAwHdsdFOB2Tg3HIbE5kQPvT1t0yMJxuCoZJ1FnJu0TY1eODpdzlCLGiIqnFEUlRgB6xqBrOx7KWTzCPXY8WRr1hWhRqqmuTp4soSUMVfHw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEptVc6i4wRbDa-... | It began without warning. "Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments."
This was the scene at around 11 a.m. on Saturday, June 8 in central Gaza's Nuseirat refugee camp. Aerial bombardment, ... | https://www.972mag.com/nuseirat-camp-israeli-hostages-massacre-gaza/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen against Hodeidah's airport, Salif seaport, and the A... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes or missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the month of July 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) or US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirms that US forces... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes or missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the month of July 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) or US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirms that US forces... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States military conduct airstrikes or missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the month of July 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "reso... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHE37FZf-N5U5BzJJApI9VSy702f00oqZkM2ePAzfRDXYGwPX2e_ST2kUAAAwHdsdFOB2Tg3HIbE5kQPvT1t0yMJxuCoZJ1FnJu0TY1eODpdzlCLGiIqnFEUlRgB6xqBrOx7KWTzCPXY8WRr1hWhRqqmuTp4soSUMVfHw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "It began without warning. \"Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments.\"\nThis was the scene a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen against Hodeidah's airport, Salif seaport, and th... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7b16d01e-167b-4f26-ab3f-be2bc43df786", "processing_time_ms": 14153.089, "sample_id": "18f5f3cc-9fc0-416d-8916-3f16173521eb"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen against Hodeidah's airport, Salif sea... |
7bfdb59b-fdc0-46be-8c57-aeb6a70cf713 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on the Al-Mawasi 'humanitarian zone' in Gaza resulting in at least 10 fatalities before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-13T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) or the Gaza Ministry of Health report an Israeli airstrike on the designated Al-Mawasi area between June 14, 2024, and August 1, 2024, that claims at least 10 lives. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 13, 2024, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted a significant airstrike on the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone in Gaza, targeting Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif. Reports from the Gaza Health Ministry and international organizations like the United Nations confirmed that the strike killed at least 90 people,... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAbdKXAkM9T3txu1Y1sLQBjdtl2mhdPms-7OkfSP_TQOO1NfmFN_VU6ojkaTvOmmWVcx6xgmI3eezO40kmIuD9w-RYZgt_eXO_ZKt8kav_53AZNTURXYQQ4q9H4Ur9hbK1i8e-Io--7cCkS0dPccAo4ERSMcg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGB_Qf5lQkuWMhsV6xT9tyu... | It began without warning. "Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments."
This was the scene at around 11 a.m. on Saturday, June 8 in central Gaza's Nuseirat refugee camp. Aerial bombardment, ... | https://www.972mag.com/nuseirat-camp-israeli-hostages-massacre-gaza/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: An Israeli airstrike on a Rafah camp killed at least 45 Palestinians, including women and children, according to the Hamas-ru... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on the Al-Mawasi 'humanitarian zone' in Gaza resulting in at least 10 fatalities before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) or the Gaza ... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on the Al-Mawasi 'humanitarian zone' in Gaza resulting in at least 10 fatalities before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) or the Gaza ... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conduct an airstrike on the Al-Mawasi 'humanitarian zone' in Gaza resulting in at least 10 fatalities before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHAbdKXAkM9T3txu1Y1sLQBjdtl2mhdPms-7OkfSP_TQOO1NfmFN_VU6ojkaTvOmmWVcx6xgmI3eezO40kmIuD9w-RYZgt_eXO_ZKt8kav_53AZNTURXYQQ4q9H4Ur9hbK1i8e-Io--7cCkS0dPccAo4ERSMcg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "It began without warning. \"Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments.\"\nThis was the scene a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: An Israeli airstrike on a Rafah camp killed at least 45 Palestinians, including women and children, according to the Hamas... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 20601.832000000002, "sample_id": "7b16d01e-167b-4f26-ab3f-be2bc43df786"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Gaza war: Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah (published on 2024-05-27 by bbc.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: An Israeli airstrike on a Rafah camp killed at least 45 Palestinians, including women and children, according ... |
8a821fdc-4a8b-4d2d-b2df-838df3071109 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct joint airstrikes against Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen, between June 14, 2024, and August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a combined military operation involving both US and UK aircraft or naval assets strikes Houthi-controlled targets in the Hodeidah governorate of Yemen at least once between June 14, 2024, and August 15, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-13) and the close date (2024-08-16), there were no documented joint airstrikes conducted by both the United States and the United Kingdom against Houthi targets in Hodeidah, Yemen. According to official records from the UK Ministry of Defence and US CENTCOM, the series of large-scale ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHB4nibhohdTgfG9XzOI7YrlIxzOcsq1Rw6L7QOrw-toA5kfhGSXjbxbAqAEvcW-9aQhkvVRRb6FI5A8BAjf_D9jSNVH9JwxochrJyrvexxulU7SygmA1VYJ3JiE0SnBQ7Qs-uwmqDf4MzpmoVjPObkalViJrnuJFtIOZm_, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHxxaN2kotKEazF... | <html lang="en"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'c','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMA9jYz8dtvrSYA9OII_w... | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-attacked-9-israeli-military-sites-with-rockets-drones-2024-06-13/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct joint airstrikes against Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen, between June 14, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a combined military operation involving both US and UK aircraft o... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct joint airstrikes against Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen, between June 14, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if a combined military operation involving both US and UK aircraft o... | {"date_close": "2024-08-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct joint airstrikes against Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen, between June 14, 2024, and August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FO... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHB4nibhohdTgfG9XzOI7YrlIxzOcsq1Rw6L7QOrw-toA5kfhGSXjbxbAqAEvcW-9aQhkvVRRb6FI5A8BAjf_D9jSNVH9JwxochrJyrvexxulU7SygmA1VYJ3JiE0SnBQ7Qs-uwmqDf4MzpmoVjPObkalViJrnuJFtIOZm_, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "US UK airstrikes Hodeidah June August 2024; Houthi capabilities Hodeidah military readiness; US UK military posture Red Sea recent activity"}] | null | {"parent_sample_id": "eb7ab5db-4b4a-46d8-8048-61c37998d336", "processing_time_ms": 3374.8239999999996, "sample_id": "cf7e6da0-8c54-4b03-ae59-accc810a3ca1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "US UK airstrikes Hodeidah June August 2024; Houthi capabilities Hodeidah military readiness; US UK military posture Red Sea recent activity"}], "id": "8a821fdc-4a8b-4d2d-b2df-838df3071109", "is_valid": true, "label": {"answer_parser_... | |
a4b58faf-6aa3-4659-9206-256b27986320 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Air Force use a FAB-3000 bomb with a glide module (UMPK) in a strike on Ukrainian territory before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-20T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT/conflict monitoring groups (using video/photo evidence) confirm the operational use of the 3,000kg FAB-3000 bomb equipped with high-precision glide modules in Ukraine between June 14, 2024, and July 31, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Russian Air Force conducted its first documented strike using a FAB-3000 bomb equipped with a UMPK (glide module) on June 20, 2024. The target was located in the village of Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. This event was widely reported by both Russian military bloggers and international news organizations such as ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGsoZ36Gtobk_3YrhiKQjYpBbA9nVBsasQrAMxoXQSjVRUIOdfR2g_oiFIkj14QkRGILZHCNwz8AGWhFH96FuYlddro7nBVmcmumxOnRNVnHICzPkQS4_IB12R057p5XLDwAttu383eEy7Y1K-GG5bz2Fm9hpRpIu6V6oVCEkHYaBrbEDXtAAR7lkoFUJfH5NnNXimFEU3siDMzZPOyo3F7_DByyPfomYPQe6i6WwujTA==, https://ver... | <html lang="en"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style="margin:0"><p id="cmsg">Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker</p><script data-cfasync="false">var dd={'rt':'c','cid':'AHrlqAAAAAMA9jYz8dtvrSYA9OII_w... | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-attacked-9-israeli-military-sites-with-rockets-drones-2024-06-13/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia Begins Large-Scale Production of Three Tonnes FAB-3000 Bombs (published on 2024-06-02 by defencesecurityasia.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Russia has resumed large-scale production of 3-ton FAB-3000 bombs, which contain 1.4 tons of TNT and ... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Air Force use a FAB-3000 bomb with a glide module (UMPK) in a strike on Ukrainian territory before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT/conflict monitoring groups (using video/pho... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Air Force use a FAB-3000 bomb with a glide module (UMPK) in a strike on Ukrainian territory before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT/conflict monitoring groups (using video/pho... | {"date_close": "2024-08-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Air Force use a FAB-3000 bomb with a glide module (UMPK) in a strike on Ukrainian territory before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resol... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGsoZ36Gtobk_3YrhiKQjYpBbA9nVBsasQrAMxoXQSjVRUIOdfR2g_oiFIkj14QkRGILZHCNwz8AGWhFH96FuYlddro7nBVmcmumxOnRNVnHICzPkQS4_IB12R057p5XLDwAttu383eEy7Y1K-GG5bz2Fm9hpRpIu6V6oVCEkHYaBrbEDXtAAR7lkoFUJfH5NnNXimFEU3si... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html lang=\"en\"><head><title>reuters.com</title><style>#cmsg{animation: A 1.5s;}@keyframes A{0%{opacity:0;}99%{opacity:0;}100%{opacity:1;}}</style></head><body style=\"margin:0\"><p id=\"cmsg\">Please enable JS and disable ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Begins Large-Scale Production of Three Tonnes FAB-3000 Bombs (published on 2024-06-02 by defencesecurityasia.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Russia has resumed large-scale production of 3-ton FAB-3000 bombs, which contain 1.4 tons of TNT a... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "eb7ab5db-4b4a-46d8-8048-61c37998d336", "processing_time_ms": 14073.273000000001, "sample_id": "dff73552-8f2d-4aa1-946c-543a37b10ea1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Begins Large-Scale Production of Three Tonnes FAB-3000 Bombs (published on 2024-06-02 by defencesecurityasia.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Russia has resumed large-scale production of 3-ton FAB-3000 bombs, which contain 1.4 t... |
dde4650a-39b3-4217-8145-777e2d2e78cc | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will any vessel of the Russian naval fleet currently in Havana, including the Kazan or Admiral Gorshkov, fire a missile from Caribbean waters toward a land-based target before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or US Southern Command confirms that a ship or submarine from the detachment that visited Havana in June 2024 conducts a live-fire missile launch at a physical land target while located in the Caribbean Sea. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | A detachment of the Russian Northern Fleet, including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, arrived in Havana, Cuba, on June 12, 2024, and departed on June 17, 2024. According to official reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense and international monitors, the fleet conducted only co... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHFkP7bJFsn4ENav0BlSpmBX1-dMOs2S6OxEFoYAmT2i-wbW0o49ID-dx_NzbV8zm1g3r1Xpv7SzpVEMF9ob76hAZlacZjpW5pdzBZIY7QhIlEb1MJYgCuH3n_EIm_jBzeHcS3WYdEPKOBRMdZY2hXepCJj-1z1DQ9MiNM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFUTAQTlYC8BRje... | -
A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damaged an administrative building and an apartment block, Ukraine's military command said on the Tel... | https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-strike-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-kills-nine-including-five-children | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian Nuclear Sub, Frigate with Long Range Land Attack Missiles Operating Off East Coast (published on 2024-06-11 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: A nuclear Russian submarine, *Kazan*, and guided-missile frigate *Admiral Gorshkov* are ... | QUESTION:
Will any vessel of the Russian naval fleet currently in Havana, including the Kazan or Admiral Gorshkov, fire a missile from Caribbean waters toward a land-based target before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or U... | QUESTION:
Will any vessel of the Russian naval fleet currently in Havana, including the Kazan or Admiral Gorshkov, fire a missile from Caribbean waters toward a land-based target before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or U... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will any vessel of the Russian naval fleet currently in Havana, including the Kazan or Admiral Gorshkov, fire a missile from Caribbean waters toward a land-based target before August 1,... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHFkP7bJFsn4ENav0BlSpmBX1-dMOs2S6OxEFoYAmT2i-wbW0o49ID-dx_NzbV8zm1g3r1Xpv7SzpVEMF9ob76hAZlacZjpW5pdzBZIY7QhIlEb1MJYgCuH3n_EIm_jBzeHcS3WYdEPKOBRMdZY2hXepCJj-1z1DQ9MiNM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "-\nA Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damage... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Nuclear Sub, Frigate with Long Range Land Attack Missiles Operating Off East Coast (published on 2024-06-11 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A nuclear Russian submarine, *Kazan*, and guided-missile frigate *Admiral Gorshkov* a... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d194400f-646e-4cfb-a0aa-ed60d96f4019", "processing_time_ms": 9679.49, "sample_id": "bbf67db0-5ad0-463b-947c-ed3399bfabab"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Nuclear Sub, Frigate with Long Range Land Attack Missiles Operating Off East Coast (published on 2024-06-11 by news.usni.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A nuclear Russian submarine, *Kazan*, and guided-missile frigate *Admiral... |
ec9c2d4f-1a7d-4c56-9d49-4f988d6f5aa8 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the IDF conduct a ground and air operation to rescue live hostages in the Gaza Strip between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-09-30T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially announces or international media confirms a military operation occurring between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024, that successfully retrieves at least one live hostage from Gaza. This excludes bodies recovered or hostages released through diplomatic deals. | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On August 27, 2024, the IDF and ISA successfully rescued Qaid Farhan Alkadi alive from a tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip (Rafah area). This rescue operation occurred between the question date of 2024-06-13 and the close date of 2024-09-30. The operation was part of the broader military offensive in Gaza involving gro... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHDoSjbPidOEMdkABkstRVlg2ESAORDARjDQ97GWKaJNgSx3IrhndqVNecSu1bCrFGZ1L8IytRP3_OCFajcseoT91F_ovz0TnuZU7zGSoia7YLiObeoLx7nyz0E-2y64yUKznl_kw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFQ87M0rjFMaNPBlFy-PeCh0RWLUF-LvSCQDA4eS3z1... | It began without warning. "Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments."
This was the scene at around 11 a.m. on Saturday, June 8 in central Gaza's Nuseirat refugee camp. Aerial bombardment, ... | https://www.972mag.com/nuseirat-camp-israeli-hostages-massacre-gaza/ | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Outrage over 'massacre' in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages (published on 2024-06-09 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Israeli attacks during a special forces hostage rescue in Nuseirat killed at least 274 Palestinians, sparking int... | QUESTION:
Will the IDF conduct a ground and air operation to rescue live hostages in the Gaza Strip between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially announces or international media confirms a military operation occurring... | QUESTION:
Will the IDF conduct a ground and air operation to rescue live hostages in the Gaza Strip between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the IDF officially announces or international media confirms a military operation occurring... | {"date_close": "2024-09-30T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the IDF conduct a ground and air operation to rescue live hostages in the Gaza Strip between June 14, 2024, and September 30, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHDoSjbPidOEMdkABkstRVlg2ESAORDARjDQ97GWKaJNgSx3IrhndqVNecSu1bCrFGZ1L8IytRP3_OCFajcseoT91F_ovz0TnuZU7zGSoia7YLiObeoLx7nyz0E-2y64yUKznl_kw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "It began without warning. \"Planes were bombing. Tanks were firing. Quadcopter drones were shooting. People were running and screaming. It felt like Judgment Day, as if we were living our last moments.\"\nThis was the scene a... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Outrage over 'massacre' in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages (published on 2024-06-09 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Israeli attacks during a special forces hostage rescue in Nuseirat killed at least 274 Palestinians, sparking ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "7b16d01e-167b-4f26-ab3f-be2bc43df786", "processing_time_ms": 14152.972, "sample_id": "a4a4c43e-2a05-4577-b3c8-06ef62ae00bb"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Outrage over 'massacre' in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages (published on 2024-06-09 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Israeli attacks during a special forces hostage rescue in Nuseirat killed at least 274 Palestinian... |
f16dd318-4133-4788-9d64-989cef925abd | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on a Hezbollah-linked target inside Lebanese territory that results in the confirmed death of a senior commander (ranked 'Brigadier General' equivalent or higher) before July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | While not explicitly in the seed text, international tensions often spill over. However, sticking to the provided context: Will Russian forces conduct a thermobaric (TOS-1A/2) strike against Ukrainian positions in the city of Chasiv Yar before August 1, 2024? This resolves to 'Yes' if visual confirmation or official mi... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on July 3, 2024, in the coastal city of Tyre, Lebanon, which resulted in the confirmed death of Mohammad Naameh Nasser (also known as Abu Naameh). Nasser was the commander of Hezbollah's Aziz Unit, one of the group's three regional divisions in southern Lebanon. T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGAEXcm2IueUsszGMVLHw-BCQ5TteJbrVhfG6V7OeorBqUg6ou_-MTPrwU6-mH2vrsxSjkIHcOMjNfT402JTonPyyKCcqJlucIFWy2gnPMDQjKXCNkbgrvJ6Dvy0NaMgw_jgJlafS3uDkTX6ntWsh75z9CCs7CrdidMZDd6WXkyrs9gLKAyme1z-qMEuKEUNu2KD0hbdcqe50XsCS60JgEY067USbEgBdmM8HuBowE=, https://vertexa... | -
A Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damaged an administrative building and an apartment block, Ukraine's military command said on the Tel... | https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-strike-on-city-of-kryvyi-rih-kills-nine-including-five-children | 2024-06-13T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Strike on top Hezbollah officer 'opening door to different management of conflict' (published on 2024-06-12 by ynetnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Hezbollah Nasr unit commander, Taleb Sami Abdallah (Abu Taleb), one of its most senior field comm... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on a Hezbollah-linked target inside Lebanese territory that results in the confirmed death of a senior commander (ranked 'Brigadier General' equivalent or higher) before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
While not explicit... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on a Hezbollah-linked target inside Lebanese territory that results in the confirmed death of a senior commander (ranked 'Brigadier General' equivalent or higher) before July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-13
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
While not explicit... | {"date_close": "2024-07-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on a Hezbollah-linked target inside Lebanese territory that results in the confirmed death of a senior commander (ranked 'Brig... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGAEXcm2IueUsszGMVLHw-BCQ5TteJbrVhfG6V7OeorBqUg6ou_-MTPrwU6-mH2vrsxSjkIHcOMjNfT402JTonPyyKCcqJlucIFWy2gnPMDQjKXCNkbgrvJ6Dvy0NaMgw_jgJlafS3uDkTX6ntWsh75z9CCs7CrdidMZDd6WXkyrs9gLKAyme1z-qMEuKEUNu2KD0hbdcqe5... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-13T00:00:00", "seed_text": "-\nA Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine's southern city of Kryvyi Rih on Wednesday killed nine people and injured 29, including five children, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. The deadliest attack in weeks damage... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Strike on top Hezbollah officer 'opening door to different management of conflict' (published on 2024-06-12 by ynetnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah Nasr unit commander, Taleb Sami Abdallah (Abu Taleb), one of its most senior field c... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "d194400f-646e-4cfb-a0aa-ed60d96f4019", "processing_time_ms": 9678.753, "sample_id": "bd6abc06-f731-4a8a-9052-94c3fab6e2f1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Strike on top Hezbollah officer 'opening door to different management of conflict' (published on 2024-06-12 by ynetnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah Nasr unit commander, Taleb Sami Abdallah (Abu Taleb), one of its most se... |
06570344-616e-481b-a625-a518b32dde63 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Russian Ministry of Defense report the interception of more than 100 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory in a single 24-hour period before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues an official statement via Telegram or Interfax claiming it has downed or intercepted 101 or more Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across all Russian regions within one calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 MSK) before September 1, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported the interception of more than 100 Ukrainian drones in a single 24-hour period on at least two occasions between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-09-01). On June 21, 2024, the MoD reported destroying 114 drones, including 70 over Crimea and 44 over ot... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHowZfp_S5TmWZ7-QtCnmPiqJZYIOXU2IXmlOrn1ahb3Mh1QxeQO9gL5X6GxLo6ZL2YQFlbSt2fSrLa6TX-Qm-KOBdrS8tTu9FlKKYZGd5XUyFelrOnOfO7V2hYf_zSJhDRf8bJR44w1RKqaJ28-4tVaw3aNmpwL8DBpr2WGCNHvv1Gq7I6eXmzPtCWNKABUMR0fr0CvrPFYA3B7GIngC1tKoGNuy50RlA4R7tuqckIsbY=, https://ver... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia Says Downed Ukrainian Drones, ATACMS Missiles (published on 2024-05-15 by themoscowtimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Russia's Defense Ministry reported thwarting Ukrainian attacks overnight, claiming to intercept 10 U.S.-made ATACMS mis... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Ministry of Defense report the interception of more than 100 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory in a single 24-hour period before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues an official statem... | QUESTION:
Will the Russian Ministry of Defense report the interception of more than 100 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory in a single 24-hour period before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense issues an official statem... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Russian Ministry of Defense report the interception of more than 100 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory in a single 24-hour period before September 1, 2024?", "question_ty... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHowZfp_S5TmWZ7-QtCnmPiqJZYIOXU2IXmlOrn1ahb3Mh1QxeQO9gL5X6GxLo6ZL2YQFlbSt2fSrLa6TX-Qm-KOBdrS8tTu9FlKKYZGd5XUyFelrOnOfO7V2hYf_zSJhDRf8bJR44w1RKqaJ28-4tVaw3aNmpwL8DBpr2WGCNHvv1Gq7I6eXmzPtCWNKABUMR0fr0CvrPFY... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Says Downed Ukrainian Drones, ATACMS Missiles (published on 2024-05-15 by themoscowtimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Russia's Defense Ministry reported thwarting Ukrainian attacks overnight, claiming to intercept 10 U.S.-made ATACMS ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 10047.494, "sample_id": "26c25970-b27f-4f03-8b9f-1bbe7a37cb0e"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia Says Downed Ukrainian Drones, ATACMS Missiles (published on 2024-05-15 by themoscowtimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Russia's Defense Ministry reported thwarting Ukrainian attacks overnight, claiming to intercept 10 U.S.-... |
207593ed-3d9e-4046-a09e-dc12257d3084 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct a drone or missile strike on the Morozovsk airbase in Russia again before September 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is credible reporting from official Ukrainian sources, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) that Ukrainian forces launched a successful or attempted kinetic strike (drone, missile, or sabotage) on the territory of the M... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine conducted multiple drone strikes on the Morozovsk airbase between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-10-01). While a strike occurred on June 14, 2024, further significant attacks were documented on July 22, 2024, and August 3, 2024. The August 3 strike was officially confirmed by the Genera... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE4eA1dBYkgUuOzauQzXzg7EwFRvNqbZYjrf4AdPd-ezaqPIkOE-Z445W79R81DBG5mQLJ92qCpFH8nbmG9UUL6FBZZVoV03sVWSeMMz6JJex9dRdH5PDcz7vsM8HS-W8XtdIgrElouIqzo3J1DeCgjmblhl5B3QxT0_qMMoT_5pV7cCL_Fx8HhDeAMqaqm8atoUUkBpV8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF
Ukrainian troops launched "precision strikes" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.
Friday 14 June 2024 21:08, UK
Ukrainian forces have struck a military airfield in Russia, targeting warp... | https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-forces-strike-military-airfield-in-russia-amid-sustained-campaign-on-putins-raf-13153209 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Ukraine damaging an Su-57 at Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, demonstrates its effective long-range dron... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a drone or missile strike on the Morozovsk airbase in Russia again before September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is credible reporting from official Ukrainian sources, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or reputable intern... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a drone or missile strike on the Morozovsk airbase in Russia again before September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is credible reporting from official Ukrainian sources, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or reputable intern... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct a drone or missile strike on the Morozovsk airbase in Russia again before September 30, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE4eA1dBYkgUuOzauQzXzg7EwFRvNqbZYjrf4AdPd-ezaqPIkOE-Z445W79R81DBG5mQLJ92qCpFH8nbmG9UUL6FBZZVoV03sVWSeMMz6JJex9dRdH5PDcz7vsM8HS-W8XtdIgrElouIqzo3J1DeCgjmblhl5B3QxT0_qMMoT_5pV7cCL_Fx8HhDeAMqaqm8atoUUkBpV8=,... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF\nUkrainian troops launched \"precision strikes\" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.\nFrida... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine damaging an Su-57 at Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, demonstrates its effective long-range d... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 20962.575999999997, "sample_id": "4db5573c-40c5-4730-a298-6053a2583ef6"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine (published on 2024-06-10 by rusi.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine damaging an Su-57 at Akhtubinsk, 370 miles inside Russia, demonstrates its effective ... |
218207d0-07b1-42e3-a6d2-73d5a07b5de9 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. Navy officially confirms the carrier has docked at Naval Station Norfolk following its Red Sea deployment. If the ship remains at sea, in a different port, or under a further deployment extension on this date, the answer is 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 0.99 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) returned to its homeport at Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia, on July 14, 2024, following a nine-month deployment to the U.S. 5th and 6th Fleet areas of operations. This return date was confirmed by official U.S. Navy reports and major news organizations. Because the return occurred... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHI4ZW9_qx42PLyeczdx2DY3osrrxiDRlizMLrnjopDPuAphXDWInxczP7LipmsLUUHJ7cnHMZo_HlVC7jrq6glDaaIpeZdo52kx67jxK7q86HOjlxcddU8S9wBTsl54LBhln-e7QakxqtI9Ox92g6xV7SmZkMXP0vAT_jBSyxCUx_p-62dKIQzqwkA7MauUVMSTu6auRGQfYIZC1JlSQb6CiOD55uXsAvawAyQ2LqtyiO8_eT8eMIg0qGKP... | ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself locked in combat with a shadowy, Iran-backed rebel group based in Yemen.
The U.S.-led campaign... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-conflict-with-yemens-houthi-rebels-u-s-navy-faces-most-intense-combat-since-world-war-ii | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Navy's Eisenhower carrier group's deployment in the Red Sea extended (published on 2024-06-02 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group's deployment intercepting Houthi munitions in the Middl... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. Navy officially confirms the carrier has docked at Naval Station Norfolk following its Red Sea deployment. I... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. Navy officially confirms the carrier has docked at Naval Station Norfolk following its Red Sea deployment. I... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "The... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHI4ZW9_qx42PLyeczdx2DY3osrrxiDRlizMLrnjopDPuAphXDWInxczP7LipmsLUUHJ7cnHMZo_HlVC7jrq6glDaaIpeZdo52kx67jxK7q86HOjlxcddU8S9wBTsl54LBhln-e7QakxqtI9Ox92g6xV7SmZkMXP0vAT_jBSyxCUx_p-62dKIQzqwkA7MauUVMSTu6auRGQf... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Navy's Eisenhower carrier group's deployment in the Red Sea extended (published on 2024-06-02 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group's deployment intercepting Houthi munitions in the Mi... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "10bcb72b-61d5-4cb3-9f0a-aabdefa8e392", "processing_time_ms": 10580.681999999999, "sample_id": "4c452388-cd4a-490e-a132-6d9cb35af990"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Navy's Eisenhower carrier group's deployment in the Red Sea extended (published on 2024-06-02 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group's deployment intercepting Houthi munitio... |
26817c50-546c-4abc-9423-8c5cfbe09584 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike that causes a fire at an oil refinery or fuel depot in the Rostov region of Russia before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-18T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or verified satellite imagery (reported by major news outlets) confirm a fire at a fuel storage or refining facility in the Rostov region caused by Ukrainian aerial drones between June 15, 2024, and July 31, 2024. ... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date is 2024-08-01 and the question date is 2024-06-14. On June 18, 2024, Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) drones successfully struck two oil depots (Azovska and Azovnaftoprodukt) in the town of Azov, Rostov region, Russia. This strike caused a major fire in multiple fuel tanks, including a 5,000-cubic-meter ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEdNDYwZT6gWcHIhVxBTGJFuwcG1Xg4U8m_Hfs0oLBgBFAkzJTnohaO3EfZcGwtp-9h1yK6oXj-p1lOrjzD-pH9yr5o0OWccvIconxFqE_TN7NXz8RCumY0MTMOmsGeAOfNX-vyqPx5BzWBHxr1xKLWABhOoYrmcr2FSwiP0ORBubpdSThQlDHelxMKUPLYnzRmuqQVHQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russia says Ukrainian drone attack hit oil refinery (published on 2024-06-06 by voanews.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Ukrainian drone attacks hit a refinery in Russia's Rostov region, causing a fire and suspending work. Another drone hit an oil de... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike that causes a fire at an oil refinery or fuel depot in the Rostov region of Russia before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian Ministry of Def... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike that causes a fire at an oil refinery or fuel depot in the Rostov region of Russia before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian Ministry of Def... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone strike that causes a fire at an oil refinery or fuel depot in the Rostov region of Russia before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FOR... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEdNDYwZT6gWcHIhVxBTGJFuwcG1Xg4U8m_Hfs0oLBgBFAkzJTnohaO3EfZcGwtp-9h1yK6oXj-p1lOrjzD-pH9yr5o0OWccvIconxFqE_TN7NXz8RCumY0MTMOmsGeAOfNX-vyqPx5BzWBHxr1xKLWABhOoYrmcr2FSwiP0ORBubpdSThQlDHelxMKUPLYnzRmuqQVHQ==,... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia says Ukrainian drone attack hit oil refinery (published on 2024-06-06 by voanews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian drone attacks hit a refinery in Russia's Rostov region, causing a fire and suspending work. Another drone hit an oil... | null | {"processing_time_ms": 82516.128, "sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia says Ukrainian drone attack hit oil refinery (published on 2024-06-06 by voanews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian drone attacks hit a refinery in Russia's Rostov region, causing a fire and suspending work. Another dron... |
339d02a1-a64b-442e-b4d4-9a1af72fc8cb | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine launch a strike on a Russian military airfield located at least 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border before October 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone or missile strike on a Russian military airfield (such as Engels or Olenya) situated 500km or more from the nearest point on the internationally recognized Ukrainian border. The strike must occur between June 15, 2024, and October 31, 2024, a... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine launched several strikes on Russian military airfields located more than 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-11-01). On July 27, 2024, Ukrainian drones struck the Olenya airbase in the Murmansk region, which is approximately 1,800 km from the ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEVhQg0HOrNxPq7ypIqbGOCGCgnt7xDKX5peDxg3W9dUSOMaGTjnwbd4MXyyT_ixwzwjtmXupN6T_pzAc2nLOr7z0mqTVtc6KHa3GRXoL8y7tsNKuoSOexx_z-OJWMyBVyf4aN1b9hNxUyWK8Agi1IRQBb1exU7Cq2B15G8llJp1dpjzGnNqMJG3Zd1, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF
Ukrainian troops launched "precision strikes" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.
Friday 14 June 2024 21:08, UK
Ukrainian forces have struck a military airfield in Russia, targeting warp... | https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-forces-strike-military-airfield-in-russia-amid-sustained-campaign-on-putins-raf-13153209 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine says it has struck an advanced fighter jet at an airfield deep inside Russia (published on 2024-06-09 by pbs.org) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Ukraine struck a Russian air base at Akhtubinsk, nearly 600 km from the front lines, potentially dam... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a strike on a Russian military airfield located at least 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border before October 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone or missile strike on a Russian military a... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a strike on a Russian military airfield located at least 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border before October 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces conduct a successful drone or missile strike on a Russian military a... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine launch a strike on a Russian military airfield located at least 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border before October 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTI... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEVhQg0HOrNxPq7ypIqbGOCGCgnt7xDKX5peDxg3W9dUSOMaGTjnwbd4MXyyT_ixwzwjtmXupN6T_pzAc2nLOr7z0mqTVtc6KHa3GRXoL8y7tsNKuoSOexx_z-OJWMyBVyf4aN1b9hNxUyWK8Agi1IRQBb1exU7Cq2B15G8llJp1dpjzGnNqMJG3Zd1, https://vertexa... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF\nUkrainian troops launched \"precision strikes\" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.\nFrida... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine says it has struck an advanced fighter jet at an airfield deep inside Russia (published on 2024-06-09 by pbs.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukraine struck a Russian air base at Akhtubinsk, nearly 600 km from the front lines, potentially ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "4db5573c-40c5-4730-a298-6053a2583ef6", "processing_time_ms": 14310.886999999999, "sample_id": "b396cf94-2bf1-4e99-bb82-c4574621b70a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine says it has struck an advanced fighter jet at an airfield deep inside Russia (published on 2024-06-09 by pbs.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Ukraine struck a Russian air base at Akhtubinsk, nearly 600 km from the front lines, ... |
3eaaf625-1c5e-4b97-8b27-0d8ced022ae4 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi targets inside the city of Sanaa, Yemen before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command or the Department of Defense confirms that U.S. aircraft (manned or unmanned) or sea-launched missiles struck Houthi military or logistics targets within the city limits of Sanaa between June 14, 2024, and September 1, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The close date is 2024-09-01, and the question date is 2024-06-14. According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) official releases and maritime security reports, while the United States military conducted several 'dynamic' and 'self-defense' strikes against Houthi targets (such as radars, UAVs, and missile launchers) bet... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGjZJMuO-y9BSHkVIeuOwUWBFciTiOvtRWRrLXJWyUbPZhEg-vrSxhULF2N11UI-PUs4G4AUWDnlJAGNQO6lCI5lgDddP6_sLcxqeThp3rP9f6ZI54qf4N06eSO9b5tU2uShfqUCa4_jyYiLr5_GXnsw0kHgaL8cf9lWA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEt7oQSEq2Tixn4... | Yemen's Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship cruise missiles and struck a commercial ship Thursday in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen, setting it on fire and severely wounding one civilian mariner, authorities said.
The M/V Verbena was still ablaze and the mariner was flown by a U.S. helicopter based on the USS Philippine S... | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/missile-strike-yemens-houthi-rebels-sets-cargo-ship-fire-injures-sailo-rcna157139 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following an increased surge in Red Sea ship... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi targets inside the city of Sanaa, Yemen before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command or the Department of Defense confirms that U.S. aircraft (manned or unmanned) o... | QUESTION:
Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi targets inside the city of Sanaa, Yemen before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command or the Department of Defense confirms that U.S. aircraft (manned or unmanned) o... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States military conduct airstrikes on Houthi targets inside the city of Sanaa, Yemen before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGjZJMuO-y9BSHkVIeuOwUWBFciTiOvtRWRrLXJWyUbPZhEg-vrSxhULF2N11UI-PUs4G4AUWDnlJAGNQO6lCI5lgDddP6_sLcxqeThp3rP9f6ZI54qf4N06eSO9b5tU2uShfqUCa4_jyYiLr5_GXnsw0kHgaL8cf9lWA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Yemen's Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship cruise missiles and struck a commercial ship Thursday in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen, setting it on fire and severely wounding one civilian mariner, authorities said.\nThe M/V Verben... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following an increased surge in Red Sea s... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "6b4f0a96-52cb-4655-860e-5773d233b569", "processing_time_ms": 10328.773, "sample_id": "87e6fc6d-184d-4c93-ab2c-c61c104f7f77"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. and Britain strike Houthi rebel targets in Yemen after surge in shipping attacks (published on 2024-05-31 by npr.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The U.S. and Britain struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen following an increased surge ... |
492211a0-b002-4b06-bc8c-46bbb27e4183 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct a drone strike that successfully damages an oil refinery or fuel storage depot in the Rostov region of Russia between July 1, 2024, and September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-13T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or verifiable satellite imagery confirmed by major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC) report a drone strike causing fire or structural damage to fuel infrastructure in Rostov during the specified window. Debris causin... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine conducted multiple successful drone strikes on oil infrastructure in the Rostov region during the specified period. The close date was 2024-09-02 and the question date was 2024-06-14. On July 13, 2024, Ukrainian drones struck a fuel storage facility in the Tsimlyansky district of Rostov, causing a major fire. T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFuLSEXGMmgh0JlE2oDdc78oFb8gNQK9d64_h4-oIQKgbwfiv3crfY095JGMmbC1XvTBWsPNsPky9aizC5SO1r4JgL9VODRoJEe6qjNv4INXtlKXRUPg-A7xYJf0ds=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF4HCbs7vsEkIVDC9HjNvo7Qj22KwiZCPmlQH_vN-3Qn_vPvJOF6xnB... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region, Russia, an... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a drone strike that successfully damages an oil refinery or fuel storage depot in the Rostov region of Russia between July 1, 2024, and September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian M... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a drone strike that successfully damages an oil refinery or fuel storage depot in the Rostov region of Russia between July 1, 2024, and September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if official Russian regional authorities, the Russian M... | {"date_close": "2024-09-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct a drone strike that successfully damages an oil refinery or fuel storage depot in the Rostov region of Russia between July 1, 2024, and September 1, 2024?", "questi... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFuLSEXGMmgh0JlE2oDdc78oFb8gNQK9d64_h4-oIQKgbwfiv3crfY095JGMmbC1XvTBWsPNsPky9aizC5SO1r4JgL9VODRoJEe6qjNv4INXtlKXRUPg-A7xYJf0ds=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF4HCbs... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cro... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region, Russia,... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "52a7e3de-22ab-415a-bcdc-b4e07db51369", "processing_time_ms": 20603.551, "sample_id": "09c6dd88-f64b-4d7b-8781-0cd700c1e47a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov reg... |
5089aaac-2a32-404f-84b5-515e75df698d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces claim and be independently verified to have shot down another U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone before July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | Resolution requires both a Houthi claim of a shoot-down and subsequent confirmation from U.S. defense officials or visual evidence (wreckage footage) verified by open-source intelligence analysts that a U.S. MQ-9 was lost over Yemen or the Red Sea. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 14, 2024, and the close date of July 31, 2024, there were no documented instances of Houthi forces claiming to have shot down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone that were also independently verified by the U.S. military or other credible sources. Historically, MQ-9 shootdowns by Houthis in 2024 ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE5oUfjXnHS7CZ18yOo4RZIcSW1eVLkDgTaTeuYjtiLABdhoGTUBteZXszO2Fh1YI-oqEPoiqBtekJ5wU4kcJ_Y38Ar_GlSYySkbc65rODLGGzEzKnjo2O79jGe5kiIlOUKS6QJvhdwWoy2nc0oocyTYCM1, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFrQSYau1EMCWJCkzRl6O_wNIbS... | ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself locked in combat with a shadowy, Iran-backed rebel group based in Yemen.
The U.S.-led campaign... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-conflict-with-yemens-houthi-rebels-u-s-navy-faces-most-intense-combat-since-world-war-ii | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] $30M US Reaper Drone Downed in Yemen — Third Loss in Houthi Conflict: Report (published on 2024-06-01 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Houthi rebels claimed to down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone in Yemen, reportedly the third loss in a mo... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces claim and be independently verified to have shot down another U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution requires both a Houthi claim of a shoot-down and subsequent confirmation from U.S. defense officials or visual evidence (wrec... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces claim and be independently verified to have shot down another U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone before July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution requires both a Houthi claim of a shoot-down and subsequent confirmation from U.S. defense officials or visual evidence (wrec... | {"date_close": "2024-07-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces claim and be independently verified to have shot down another U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone before July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE5oUfjXnHS7CZ18yOo4RZIcSW1eVLkDgTaTeuYjtiLABdhoGTUBteZXszO2Fh1YI-oqEPoiqBtekJ5wU4kcJ_Y38Ar_GlSYySkbc65rODLGGzEzKnjo2O79jGe5kiIlOUKS6QJvhdwWoy2nc0oocyTYCM1, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] $30M US Reaper Drone Downed in Yemen — Third Loss in Houthi Conflict: Report (published on 2024-06-01 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels claimed to down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone in Yemen, reportedly the third loss in a... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "10bcb72b-61d5-4cb3-9f0a-aabdefa8e392", "processing_time_ms": 10580.075, "sample_id": "65432f17-566d-4cdb-9ff0-625927fb2207"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] $30M US Reaper Drone Downed in Yemen — Third Loss in Houthi Conflict: Report (published on 2024-06-01 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Houthi rebels claimed to down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone in Yemen, reportedly the thi... |
5d437cea-6615-4ac8-95d3-cc0a857e179f | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine conduct a strike on the Yeysk military airfield in Russia's Krasnodar Krai before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-21T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces carry out an attack (UAV or Neptune missile) targeting the Yeysk airbase between June 15, 2024, and September 1, 2024, that results in reported explosions or damage as confirmed by regional authorities or OSINT analysts. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On the night of June 21, 2024, the Ukrainian Navy and the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) conducted a successful drone strike on the Yeysk military airfield complex in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The strike targeted the 726th Air Defense Training Center (military unit 33859), which is located at or immediately adjacent ... | null | Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF
Ukrainian troops launched "precision strikes" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.
Friday 14 June 2024 21:08, UK
Ukrainian forces have struck a military airfield in Russia, targeting warp... | https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-forces-strike-military-airfield-in-russia-amid-sustained-campaign-on-putins-raf-13153209 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a strike on the Yeysk military airfield in Russia's Krasnodar Krai before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces carry out an attack (UAV or Neptune missile) targeting the Yeysk airbase between June 15, 2024, a... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine conduct a strike on the Yeysk military airfield in Russia's Krasnodar Krai before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Ukrainian forces carry out an attack (UAV or Neptune missile) targeting the Yeysk airbase between June 15, 2024, a... | {"date_close": "2024-09-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine conduct a strike on the Yeysk military airfield in Russia's Krasnodar Krai before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": null, "answer_type": "binary", "label": "1", "label_confidence": 0.95, "reasoning": "On the night of June 21, 2024, the Ukrainian Navy and the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) conducted a successful drone strike on the Yeysk military airfield complex in Russia's Krasnodar... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukrainian forces strike military airfield in Russia amid 'sustained campaign' on Putin's RAF\nUkrainian troops launched \"precision strikes\" on SU-34 bombers used by Russia to drop glide bombs, a source told Sky News.\nFrida... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "Ukraine strike Yeysk airfield capability; Yeysk airfield strikes damage reports; Ukraine long-range strike plans Krasnodar Krai Q3 2024"}] | null | {"parent_sample_id": "4db5573c-40c5-4730-a298-6053a2583ef6", "processing_time_ms": 14312.334, "sample_id": "2d338ef7-d396-4a00-80dd-782109c95461"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "", "search_query": "Ukraine strike Yeysk airfield capability; Yeysk airfield strikes damage reports; Ukraine long-range strike plans Krasnodar Krai Q3 2024"}], "id": "5d437cea-6615-4ac8-95d3-cc0a857e179f", "is_valid": true, "label": {"answer_parser_type... | |
8b2a6267-87eb-46fd-9307-3eeb62572a93 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukraine launch a drone swarm of at least 100 UAVs targeting Russian territory in a single night before September 30, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT trackers confirm that 100 or more Ukrainian drones were intercepted or hit targets across one or more Russian regions within a single overnight period (sunset to sunrise) within the date range. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukraine launched several large-scale drone attacks involving over 100 UAVs targeting Russian territory between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-10-01). According to reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense and international news agencies, the threshold was first clearly surpassed on the night... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG6sjrMJqDEH5aAxe5MN2FSFpTY7Pv9fPIvL_UycK3-IqndMJnBvYBc6Rb4SPJ38n4mIz1DGR4D24MwbLRdPU9cCI8RrouhTd-9Ahdjda8HiHH_RpkMNNo5d3eeGAJpP4w58kQMBHhzEcsWwKTO5GMFPdbTpvuccmu6Ix_cYKGqCwZCxyj9OxKXGE_9tWGGJqTvsJNBxBF1_G3UVvXt-g6yVlFrr92L-YJITHOF9WvXSrQ=, https://ver... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] LONG READ: Ukraine is losing the drone war (published on 2024-05-27 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Drones are transforming the Russo-Ukrainian war. Although Russia currently outproduces Ukraine, crippling Ukrainian advances with shee... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a drone swarm of at least 100 UAVs targeting Russian territory in a single night before September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT trackers confirm that 100 or more Ukrainian dro... | QUESTION:
Will Ukraine launch a drone swarm of at least 100 UAVs targeting Russian territory in a single night before September 30, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Russian Ministry of Defense or independent OSINT trackers confirm that 100 or more Ukrainian dro... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukraine launch a drone swarm of at least 100 UAVs targeting Russian territory in a single night before September 30, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolutio... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG6sjrMJqDEH5aAxe5MN2FSFpTY7Pv9fPIvL_UycK3-IqndMJnBvYBc6Rb4SPJ38n4mIz1DGR4D24MwbLRdPU9cCI8RrouhTd-9Ahdjda8HiHH_RpkMNNo5d3eeGAJpP4w58kQMBHhzEcsWwKTO5GMFPdbTpvuccmu6Ix_cYKGqCwZCxyj9OxKXGE_9tWGGJqTvsJNBxBF1_... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cro... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] LONG READ: Ukraine is losing the drone war (published on 2024-05-27 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Drones are transforming the Russo-Ukrainian war. Although Russia currently outproduces Ukraine, crippling Ukrainian advances with s... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "09c6dd88-f64b-4d7b-8781-0cd700c1e47a", "processing_time_ms": 14504.752, "sample_id": "4017ce33-31da-4572-9dc4-e265680fb704"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] LONG READ: Ukraine is losing the drone war (published on 2024-05-27 by intellinews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Drones are transforming the Russo-Ukrainian war. Although Russia currently outproduces Ukraine, crippling Ukrainian adv... |
a3edd40b-c7e8-423f-b8c7-fe321b55bc56 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the U.S. and United Kingdom conduct at least one joint large-scale retaliatory airstrike campaign against five or more Houthi targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. military (CENTCOM) and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statement confirming a coordinated operation targeting five or more distinct military sites (such as radar stations, launch sites, or storage facilities) in Houthi-controlled Yemen territory. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-14 and the close date is 2024-08-15. Per the instructions, only events occurring between these dates are considered. Official military records from the UK Ministry of Defence and the UK Parliament confirm that only five joint US-UK strike rounds were conducted in 2024, all of which occurred... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFVI64_u3BWYR7zfRMemDxEhQf1N-SDmwRH-V6qz3q7itbNAe9cseEOwR9fs401K7lxCsKu7ZgVFU9B4OnXayVHX8rwnSsAc6J3USNCa6VLzCRqvV3pjrTD4-qu7g3zgCPIrQcciL8Pyn7V0NuIKtZ_AZnO_gKfrHsyXBkbeouOcRfJG59Ge6HRaHs=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself locked in combat with a shadowy, Iran-backed rebel group based in Yemen.
The U.S.-led campaign... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-conflict-with-yemens-houthi-rebels-u-s-navy-faces-most-intense-combat-since-world-war-ii | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen, targeting Hodeidah airport, Salif port, and the Al-... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. and United Kingdom conduct at least one joint large-scale retaliatory airstrike campaign against five or more Houthi targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. military (CENTCOM) and the UK Ministry of Defen... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. and United Kingdom conduct at least one joint large-scale retaliatory airstrike campaign against five or more Houthi targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves as 'Yes' if the U.S. military (CENTCOM) and the UK Ministry of Defen... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the U.S. and United Kingdom conduct at least one joint large-scale retaliatory airstrike campaign against five or more Houthi targets in Yemen before August 15, 2024?", "question_t... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFVI64_u3BWYR7zfRMemDxEhQf1N-SDmwRH-V6qz3q7itbNAe9cseEOwR9fs401K7lxCsKu7ZgVFU9B4OnXayVHX8rwnSsAc6J3USNCa6VLzCRqvV3pjrTD4-qu7g3zgCPIrQcciL8Pyn7V0NuIKtZ_AZnO_gKfrHsyXBkbeouOcRfJG59Ge6HRaHs=, https://vertexa... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen, targeting Hodeidah airport, Salif port, and the ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "10bcb72b-61d5-4cb3-9f0a-aabdefa8e392", "processing_time_ms": 10581.46, "sample_id": "0278d63b-3afa-4f46-a7e0-a33443b9347a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US and UK air strikes hit Yemen, Houthi-run TV reports (published on 2024-06-07 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Houthi-run TV reported the US and UK conducted six air strikes in Yemen, targeting Hodeidah airport, Salif po... |
aa2c38d8-3f24-4d02-b619-9e4727e10990 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully strike a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden causing damage before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | A 'Yes' resolution requires a verified report from the U.S. Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or major credible news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC) that a U.S. Navy vessel was physically damaged by a Houthi-launched missile, drone, or water-borne improvised explosive device (WBIED). Near misses or interceptions do not count. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 14, 2024, and the close date of September 1, 2024, there were no confirmed reports of Houthi forces successfully damaging a U.S. Navy warship. While the Houthis claimed to have struck the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in June and the USS Cole (DDG-67) and USS Laboon (DDG-58) in Aug... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGviiBDKjG0CG8WK06P4_lY-q7033rBKqIHf2JSGdBniKS_5qdAOcCyGUyiks9Zn8vDgZiI6KTiS_0a34EfrstCC2kCtdG7QtKyWGe8TDOn5YQE4k_xOxRWph8RDVSWTE1QSdwjh3b6viogjBdxp0Fc9vQGzwI3kUyLnCuRSE9Z7ZHcWQFvu120ltxl2QbqR8VUW75gwj5OuOj7Ziil-A==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself locked in combat with a shadowy, Iran-backed rebel group based in Yemen.
The U.S.-led campaign... | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-conflict-with-yemens-houthi-rebels-u-s-navy-faces-most-intense-combat-since-world-war-ii | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Yemen's Houthis Upset US Middle East Security Calculations (published on 2024-06-10 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The Israel-Hamas War facilitated the "Black Swan" emergence of Houthi forces paralyzing Red Sea commercial traffic wi... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully strike a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden causing damage before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
A 'Yes' resolution requires a verified report from the U.S. Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or major credible news outlets (AP, Reu... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully strike a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden causing damage before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
A 'Yes' resolution requires a verified report from the U.S. Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or major credible news outlets (AP, Reu... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully strike a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden causing damage before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolu... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGviiBDKjG0CG8WK06P4_lY-q7033rBKqIHf2JSGdBniKS_5qdAOcCyGUyiks9Zn8vDgZiI6KTiS_0a34EfrstCC2kCtdG7QtKyWGe8TDOn5YQE4k_xOxRWph8RDVSWTE1QSdwjh3b6viogjBdxp0Fc9vQGzwI3kUyLnCuRSE9Z7ZHcWQFvu120ltxl2QbqR8VUW75gwj5Ou... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "ABOARD THE USS LABOON IN THE RED SEA (AP) — The U.S. Navy prepared for decades to potentially fight the Soviet Union, then later Russia and China, on the world's waterways. But instead of a global power, the Navy finds itself ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis Upset US Middle East Security Calculations (published on 2024-06-10 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Israel-Hamas War facilitated the \"Black Swan\" emergence of Houthi forces paralyzing Red Sea commercial traff... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 18515.466, "sample_id": "10bcb72b-61d5-4cb3-9f0a-aabdefa8e392"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis Upset US Middle East Security Calculations (published on 2024-06-10 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Israel-Hamas War facilitated the \"Black Swan\" emergence of Houthi forces paralyzing Red Sea comm... |
b94e7627-9c0f-43ac-ae52-74799a6b4bf1 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces launch a missile strike involving at least 20 Kh-101 or Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a single 24-hour period before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of Energy reports a single wave of attacks (within one calendar day) using 20 or more of the specified missile types targeting power plants or substations between June 15, 2024, and August 15, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On July 8, 2024, which falls between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-08-16), Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against targets in Ukraine including energy infrastructure. According to official reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack involved two phases within a 24-hour p... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH_wIav_B91KujOLoWb7r9ATFLHeMUS_jxcjrrGW1A-mya16Zlaa4Z9-JvoJ1-7dKGZSDKvWOMgAaLHehhxQaXPNc9S98Si0hR3YwNNjyHD_I8kRIxDdEYkOUFpzMugv6pAUUMyddg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFdB6MkQmNPCzapRjVdQ0bhLpCtgQXUMgiKKDngjRRE... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Since March 22, Russia has renewed large-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, including five massive strikes by May 8... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a missile strike involving at least 20 Kh-101 or Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a single 24-hour period before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces launch a missile strike involving at least 20 Kh-101 or Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a single 24-hour period before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ukrainian Air Force or Ministry of... | {"date_close": "2024-08-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces launch a missile strike involving at least 20 Kh-101 or Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a single 24-hour period before August 15, 2... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH_wIav_B91KujOLoWb7r9ATFLHeMUS_jxcjrrGW1A-mya16Zlaa4Z9-JvoJ1-7dKGZSDKvWOMgAaLHehhxQaXPNc9S98Si0hR3YwNNjyHD_I8kRIxDdEYkOUFpzMugv6pAUUMyddg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cro... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Since March 22, Russia has renewed large-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, including five massive strikes by Ma... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "09c6dd88-f64b-4d7b-8781-0cd700c1e47a", "processing_time_ms": 14505.383, "sample_id": "341ae609-f034-4577-a540-584deace18a9"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again (published on 2024-05-16 by wilsoncenter.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Since March 22, Russia has renewed large-scale attacks on Ukraine's power system, including five massive s... |
c8cf91c8-f298-4a2a-ac8a-6e82d256ebb2 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russian forces conduct a missile strike that results in more than 50,000 residents losing power in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Kharkiv Regional State Administration or the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reports that a Russian missile strike (ballistic, cruise, or S-300/400) on energy infrastructure resulted in a blackout affecting 50,001 or more customers in Kharkiv city between June 15, 2024, and August 14,... | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks if a Russian missile strike resulted in more than 50,000 residents losing power in Kharkiv city between the question date (2024-06-14) and the close date (2024-08-15). Extensive strikes on Kharkiv's power grid occurred earlier in 2024 (notably March 22), causing long-term damage and scheduled rolling ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHnM4IPBcZEbCW-36bXZ4JVCt1BghhClLTjjp4t6cAczGZ2KvsrC6eHmYGVmlTc9_IKYeJDSagr1IsbfEnMEyU9Z4B_B7kVm_hc62RMAIcTWO4_oWQRAklk0XL5kT11arkOTEgrHKeEkitqtKtdRPEWYjmxEgricPlH1dAh1T1-Oxn3fpxHiUckaC1WtGdYMg_qAAAnG35nNPm1Lx645ieLU8xGQURL95GWuNAImDE-KgI0SDB0pGdTTlW8t... | Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.
The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Mos... | https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-ukraine-exchange-drone-missile-attacks/7655741.html | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Deadly Russian missile attack hits Ukraine's second-largest city (published on 2024-05-23 by pbs.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Russian missiles struck Kharkiv early Thursday, killing at least seven civilians and injuring 16, amidst an intense cros... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces conduct a missile strike that results in more than 50,000 residents losing power in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Kharkiv Regional State Administration or the Ukrainian Ministry of... | QUESTION:
Will Russian forces conduct a missile strike that results in more than 50,000 residents losing power in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Kharkiv Regional State Administration or the Ukrainian Ministry of... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russian forces conduct a missile strike that results in more than 50,000 residents losing power in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHnM4IPBcZEbCW-36bXZ4JVCt1BghhClLTjjp4t6cAczGZ2KvsrC6eHmYGVmlTc9_IKYeJDSagr1IsbfEnMEyU9Z4B_B7kVm_hc62RMAIcTWO4_oWQRAklk0XL5kT11arkOTEgrHKeEkitqtKtdRPEWYjmxEgricPlH1dAh1T1-Oxn3fpxHiUckaC1WtGdYMg_qAAAnG35nN... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.\nThe two sides have stepped up cros... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Deadly Russian missile attack hits Ukraine's second-largest city (published on 2024-05-23 by pbs.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russian missiles struck Kharkiv early Thursday, killing at least seven civilians and injuring 16, amidst an intense c... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 127479.178, "sample_id": "81a19de9-f0e7-4ea1-8a07-53db6bf7894c"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Deadly Russian missile attack hits Ukraine's second-largest city (published on 2024-05-23 by pbs.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russian missiles struck Kharkiv early Thursday, killing at least seven civilians and injuring 16, amidst ... |
ead891c8-0e25-4ec3-a7ef-8272bdda7098 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully sink another commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2024-06-18T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (not a military asset) sinks to the bottom of the sea or is declared a total loss due to an attack claimed by or attributed to Houthi rebels between June 14, 2024, and December 31, 2024. Reporting must come from the UKMTO, U.S. Central Command, or major in... | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier M/V Tutor was attacked by Houthi forces in the Red Sea on June 12, 2024, using an unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The vessel suffered severe flooding and was abandoned. On June 18, 2024, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and the U.S. military confirmed t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGD6s9FE056CY6bVgbGx4Z4DCM8HhU5wJc6pvmFBce5VcQ8nP4DxHALOkmpz3nkF3i0-40kTiMVqgK6KowtaEOJpTgLY0eLHYW0teSo-3WT1ElfQvOU-s_c_bsAksfHB_AgjJ9ydQ1vIwTgI-co_-fbaDw88SIMN1GW0rabQGF9wukkRAJR1UvXR6GtdOwEto_gFxkXthv-dRTR4o43bgxAVzU1DSWzs8tBomReT-GEyEgpDS3zUuY=, htt... | Yemen's Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship cruise missiles and struck a commercial ship Thursday in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen, setting it on fire and severely wounding one civilian mariner, authorities said.
The M/V Verbena was still ablaze and the mariner was flown by a U.S. helicopter based on the USS Philippine S... | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/missile-strike-yemens-houthi-rebels-sets-cargo-ship-fire-injures-sailo-rcna157139 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Yemen's Houthi Rebels Are Menacing Ships on the High Seas (published on 2024-05-17 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Commercial vessels are diverting from the Red Sea due to Houthi missile threats. Houthis demonstrated expanded reac... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully sink another commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (not a military asset) sinks to the bottom of the sea or is declared a total l... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully sink another commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-14
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (not a military asset) sinks to the bottom of the sea or is declared a total l... | {"date_close": "2024-12-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully sink another commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden before December 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criter... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGD6s9FE056CY6bVgbGx4Z4DCM8HhU5wJc6pvmFBce5VcQ8nP4DxHALOkmpz3nkF3i0-40kTiMVqgK6KowtaEOJpTgLY0eLHYW0teSo-3WT1ElfQvOU-s_c_bsAksfHB_AgjJ9ydQ1vIwTgI-co_-fbaDw88SIMN1GW0rabQGF9wukkRAJR1UvXR6GtdOwEto_gFxkXthv-d... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-14T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Yemen's Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship cruise missiles and struck a commercial ship Thursday in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen, setting it on fire and severely wounding one civilian mariner, authorities said.\nThe M/V Verben... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthi Rebels Are Menacing Ships on the High Seas (published on 2024-05-17 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Commercial vessels are diverting from the Red Sea due to Houthi missile threats. Houthis demonstrated expanded r... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fa0fe1e5-8c81-4535-a55e-833f36324cf2", "processing_time_ms": 18188.566000000003, "sample_id": "6b4f0a96-52cb-4655-860e-5773d233b569"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthi Rebels Are Menacing Ships on the High Seas (published on 2024-05-17 by businessinsider.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Commercial vessels are diverting from the Red Sea due to Houthi missile threats. Houthis demonstrate... |
1e1c2f3b-55e4-47ad-b770-aa1d8cb8690c | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officially confirm the death of ISIS global leader Abdulqadir Mumin by September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before September 1, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense, AFRICOM, or the White House issues a public statement or press release confirming that Abdulqadir Mumin was killed in the May 31, 2024, airstrike or a subsequent operation. Anonymous official sourcing does not count; it m... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | On May 31, 2024, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike in Somalia targeting ISIS militants. In mid-June 2024, reports citing anonymous U.S. officials indicated that the target was Abdulqadir Mumin, the global leader of ISIS. However, official statements from the Department of Defense and AFRICOM maintain... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHbW0wycl1Ql5jpoOz492_wZ4bHb0EZ8h-fQJxF4BqgHTAZTpX7xlr4bGH8e9vnRkzUP4tRuFnQKIP6sSoo8-30qxJuEoNrr-ils5-F35hU85S1F40CbErtxv8OfMpE_whyYkB9GZafgpVefMjdT-W6hJcJjrxNL7ZVC0qz-NoVZUFKVauLXBCB6TZ9xTIdLWAXsSlLtrrWDNEnONV2p6fFi4lLssTPXEE=, https://vertexaisearch.... | The U.S. military targeted the global leader of ISIS in an airstrike in Somalia late last month but cannot confirm whether he was killed, three U.S. officials say.
The U.S. government has publicly identified Abdulqadir Mumin as the head of the ISIS affiliate in Somalia, but two U.S. officials say that last year he quie... | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/global-leader-isis-mumin-targeted-possibly-killed-us-airstrike-rcna157300 | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | military airstrike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] U.S. Airstrike in Puntland, Somalia Targets and Neutralizes ISIS Militants (published on 2024-06-01 by garoweonline.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: On May 31, 2024, U.S. AFRICOM, with Somali government coordination, conducted an airstrike near Dhaar... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officially confirm the death of ISIS global leader Abdulqadir Mumin by September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-15
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before September 1, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense, AFRI... | QUESTION:
Will the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officially confirm the death of ISIS global leader Abdulqadir Mumin by September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-15
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before September 1, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense, AFRI... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officially confirm the death of ISIS global leader Abdulqadir Mumin by September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWAR... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHbW0wycl1Ql5jpoOz492_wZ4bHb0EZ8h-fQJxF4BqgHTAZTpX7xlr4bGH8e9vnRkzUP4tRuFnQKIP6sSoo8-30qxJuEoNrr-ils5-F35hU85S1F40CbErtxv8OfMpE_whyYkB9GZafgpVefMjdT-W6hJcJjrxNL7ZVC0qz-NoVZUFKVauLXBCB6TZ9xTIdLWAXsSlLtrrWD... | {"search_query": "military airstrike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. military targeted the global leader of ISIS in an airstrike in Somalia late last month but cannot confirm whether he was killed, three U.S. officials say.\nThe U.S. government has publicly identified Abdulqadir Mu... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. Airstrike in Puntland, Somalia Targets and Neutralizes ISIS Militants (published on 2024-06-01 by garoweonline.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: On May 31, 2024, U.S. AFRICOM, with Somali government coordination, conducted an airstrike near Dh... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "b899541a-9db2-4262-8212-83016e03e400", "processing_time_ms": 109082.13399999999, "sample_id": "9e77e47d-62ef-40e2-b0c3-90ef73089ec6"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. Airstrike in Puntland, Somalia Targets and Neutralizes ISIS Militants (published on 2024-06-01 by garoweonline.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: On May 31, 2024, U.S. AFRICOM, with Somali government coordination, conducted an airst... |
f496b760-51fb-410a-9e7f-bd92773d0e11 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) airstrike using FAB series guided bombs (KAB/UMPC) result in the confirmed total loss of a Ukrainian VAB armored personnel carrier between July 1, 2024, and October 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | Resolution is Yes if credible photographic or video evidence, corroborated by defense analysts, shows at least one VAB APC completely destroyed (hull breach/catastrophic fire) by a Russian guided aerial bomb (FAB-250/500/1500 with UMPC modules) within the specified timeframe. | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question timeframe is July 1, 2024, to October 1, 2024. The question date is 2024-06-15 and the close date is 2024-10-01. During the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, which began on August 6, 2024, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) extensively utilized Su-34 fighter-bombers carrying FAB series guided... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFADOEZa4t-YlNlo_EO54ijtb7_dtkeJMiSW4hw1N7Uj6txH6lCBTlyxVkcRTxLaPQYwQQG0V88-WH8kjwhN6JcjKWI6-QHIxAyDAA5BqgPagdozVrvKeuOwdZdeGJgjF7rJUaL-sM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFK6K_afnmPHbZhH377DUHBxXeQGLzEDb01FG5j0Ed5... | French-made VAB armored personnel carriers (APCs), recently delivered to Ukrainian forces as part of military aid, have withstood a targeted strike by a Russian guided aerial bomb.
Despite sustaining extensive damage, the vehicles remained operational and managed to evacuate from the strike zone under their own power.
... | https://defence-blog.com/french-made-armored-vehicles-endure-russian-airstrike-in-ukraine/ | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | military airstrike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] What Ukraine Has Lost (Published 2024) (published on 2024-06-03 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)
Summary: Analysis of satellite data estimates over 210,000 buildings damaged in Ukraine since the war began, with the scale hard to comprehend—equivale... | QUESTION:
Will a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) airstrike using FAB series guided bombs (KAB/UMPC) result in the confirmed total loss of a Ukrainian VAB armored personnel carrier between July 1, 2024, and October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-15
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution is Yes if credible photographic or vide... | QUESTION:
Will a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) airstrike using FAB series guided bombs (KAB/UMPC) result in the confirmed total loss of a Ukrainian VAB armored personnel carrier between July 1, 2024, and October 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-15
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolution is Yes if credible photographic or vide... | {"date_close": "2024-10-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) airstrike using FAB series guided bombs (KAB/UMPC) result in the confirmed total loss of a Ukrainian VAB armored personnel carrier between July 1, ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFADOEZa4t-YlNlo_EO54ijtb7_dtkeJMiSW4hw1N7Uj6txH6lCBTlyxVkcRTxLaPQYwQQG0V88-WH8kjwhN6JcjKWI6-QHIxAyDAA5BqgPagdozVrvKeuOwdZdeGJgjF7rJUaL-sM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | {"search_query": "military airstrike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-15T00:00:00", "seed_text": "French-made VAB armored personnel carriers (APCs), recently delivered to Ukrainian forces as part of military aid, have withstood a targeted strike by a Russian guided aerial bomb.\nDespite sustaining extensive damage, the... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What Ukraine Has Lost (Published 2024) (published on 2024-06-03 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Analysis of satellite data estimates over 210,000 buildings damaged in Ukraine since the war began, with the scale hard to comprehend—equiv... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "fe33041e-fa9f-4194-8e91-9cbd44f6a23f", "processing_time_ms": 329431.537, "sample_id": "f1a761b2-59f5-43d6-baf1-a696d127e82a"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What Ukraine Has Lost (Published 2024) (published on 2024-06-03 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Analysis of satellite data estimates over 210,000 buildings damaged in Ukraine since the war began, with the scale hard to comp... |
1271ec4a-f6c1-4757-beed-bdf5e998ebaa | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Russia launch a hypersonic missile strike (Kinzhal or Zircon) against infrastructure in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reliable reporting from the Ukrainian Air Force or international media confirms that at least one Kinzhal (Kh-47M2) or Zircon (3M22) missile was fired at and hit/targeted a location within Kyiv city. Intercepted missiles do not count; the weapon must be deployed toward the target city. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date (2024-06-16) and the close date (2024-09-01), Russia launched multiple hypersonic missile strikes against infrastructure in Kyiv. On July 8, 2024, Russia conducted a massive attack that included at least one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and one 3M22 Zircon missile targeting the Artem military plant and ele... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGx2PfRpM_U16VWQkyecgz2fWpgv6gXPYlXBCLyj9yIsXmEVlGoGhGTvnoZdm3w37lbcrSWW4ftNqseZm6SwbgO5XtxrScd3KbDDfyMZJdGmkyQs_giHH8Sp-csNLRHSVph3aIndBfU87qv0fkPSdtx6kaJhP_0b9A6XisqUp0xgvltfnNilNYn013h9CzYS4V_HG-FHD6wfk4bk95qWiS_SA1hBCggF0wk1FQ=, https://vertexaisea... | <html>
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/**
... | https://www.palestinechronicle.com/military-action-alone-wont-rescue-gaza-captives-daniel-hagari/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Russian court jails yet another hypersonic missile expert on treason charges (published on 2024-05-21 by kyivindependent.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: A 77-year-old Russian physicist, Anatoly Maslov, was sentenced to 14 years for treason, accused ... | QUESTION:
Will Russia launch a hypersonic missile strike (Kinzhal or Zircon) against infrastructure in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if reliable reporting from the Ukrainian Air Force or international media confi... | QUESTION:
Will Russia launch a hypersonic missile strike (Kinzhal or Zircon) against infrastructure in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if reliable reporting from the Ukrainian Air Force or international media confi... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Russia launch a hypersonic missile strike (Kinzhal or Zircon) against infrastructure in Kyiv, Ukraine, between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKI... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGx2PfRpM_U16VWQkyecgz2fWpgv6gXPYlXBCLyj9yIsXmEVlGoGhGTvnoZdm3w37lbcrSWW4ftNqseZm6SwbgO5XtxrScd3KbDDfyMZJdGmkyQs_giHH8Sp-csNLRHSVph3aIndBfU87qv0fkPSdtx6kaJhP_0b9A6XisqUp0xgvltfnNilNYn013h9CzYS4V_HG-FHD6wf... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html>\n<head>\n <meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text/html; charset=UTF-8\">\n <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n <title>Verifying i... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian court jails yet another hypersonic missile expert on treason charges (published on 2024-05-21 by kyivindependent.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A 77-year-old Russian physicist, Anatoly Maslov, was sentenced to 14 years for treason, accus... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "15bc8f78-82ea-4a0e-984b-af1fef00e5d8", "processing_time_ms": 13944.839, "sample_id": "0af4cf8f-4d45-4d8c-a69d-a871fbcf5295"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian court jails yet another hypersonic missile expert on treason charges (published on 2024-05-21 by kyivindependent.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A 77-year-old Russian physicist, Anatoly Maslov, was sentenced to 14 years for tr... |
18299263-7368-449b-be29-df12eb3114f0 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with a drone or missile between June 16, 2024, and August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Centcom or major international news outlets confirm a Houthi-launched projectile (drone or missile) has made physical impact with a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea. Near misses or interceptions do not count toward a 'Yes' resolution. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question start date of 2024-06-16 and the close date of 2024-08-16, there were no confirmed successful strikes by Houthi forces on U.S. Navy vessels. Although Houthi spokesmen repeatedly claimed to have struck U.S. warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in late June and the destro... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGvifhZnBJEeRvDYlc5Pq7nFRwWoEYEgUATBawh7iOB5-oUqoi98IL3q6Dp3KKa0dD-ip9iH1rODeMfRYkiDVxfNk78D8KkeCSwlJNOcHZfUK5a7savqSLT0bCdW790ZJFEeARoPPbiHRgTQFMjaoDlhqDUIRMR26C2DPtXy0k4yY2kb_lnQnJcfrU0PB4BqkBoTJqOGrdOrgxMZPaIKIS7fzpEeRQoFYb9fWyoMw4g77-MmR3mT78CHvSEX... | <html>
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<title>Verifying if your connection is secure...</title>
<script type="text/javascript">
'use strict';
/**
... | https://www.palestinechronicle.com/military-action-alone-wont-rescue-gaza-captives-daniel-hagari/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: The CTP-ISW Iran Update covers Iranian activities, focusing on the "Axis of Resistance." Key takeaways show Israeli forces raiding Gaza City/advan... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with a drone or missile between June 16, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Centcom or major international news outlets confirm a Houthi-launched projectile... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with a drone or missile between June 16, 2024, and August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if Centcom or major international news outlets confirm a Houthi-launched projectile... | {"date_close": "2024-08-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces in Yemen successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea with a drone or missile between June 16, 2024, and August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_Q... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGvifhZnBJEeRvDYlc5Pq7nFRwWoEYEgUATBawh7iOB5-oUqoi98IL3q6Dp3KKa0dD-ip9iH1rODeMfRYkiDVxfNk78D8KkeCSwlJNOcHZfUK5a7savqSLT0bCdW790ZJFEeARoPPbiHRgTQFMjaoDlhqDUIRMR26C2DPtXy0k4yY2kb_lnQnJcfrU0PB4BqkBoTJqOGrdOr... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html>\n<head>\n <meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text/html; charset=UTF-8\">\n <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n <title>Verifying i... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The CTP-ISW Iran Update covers Iranian activities, focusing on the \"Axis of Resistance.\" Key takeaways show Israeli forces raiding Gaza City/... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "15bc8f78-82ea-4a0e-984b-af1fef00e5d8", "processing_time_ms": 13945.747000000001, "sample_id": "9e54e137-e2da-4378-ba47-019aa5c2cc00"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran Update, June 2, 2024 (published on 2024-06-02 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The CTP-ISW Iran Update covers Iranian activities, focusing on the \"Axis of Resistance.\" Key takeaways show Israeli forces raidin... |
1ab1f578-852b-4939-ac50-0b6124215bd6 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States conduct an airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Mudug region of Somalia before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. military, through AFRICOM, confirms it has carried out a kinetic strike (drone or aircraft) against Al-Shabaab militants specifically in the Mudug region between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The United States (via AFRICOM) conducted only 10 airstrikes in Somalia during 2024. Between the question start date (2024-06-16) and the close date (2024-09-01), the only confirmed US airstrike occurred on July 15, 2024, in the vicinity of Ceel Dheere, which is located in the Galgaduud region, not Mudug. While an airs... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHCaToLTHQQIzwEY02mmOfDNuMhz_fdOEFCOjMOLkPdAyjPzSOV3QVKo9Bwg1fQ2Qt9Gv-kTTuFyK0GxWqY_H2eZtAAquDs3KRQAIOymmnG0QR6PnhUpzOutmQw5vOkLKlFraUpf6HQbrM5-u-34WoItc9caBvC0w_iQPqTasqurKP6msDG0YnjEKKitQyKxqtoFVm6FGHqKWx-Z8ahMyjSt3ClgQ== | (SOMALIA) — A United States military airstrike in Somalia targeted the top Islamic State leader in late May, but it remains unclear if the leader was killed in the airstrike, according to U.S. officials.
Abdulqadir Mumin has been identified by the U.S. as the head of the Islamic State in Somalia, an African affiliate o... | https://ruralradio.com/rrn/abc_news/top-isis-leader-in-somalia-was-target-of-us-airstrike-abcid830d5619/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military airstrike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US airstrike in Somalia kills three ISIS members (published on 2024-06-01 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: U.S. Africa Command announced a May 31 airstrike in inland Somalia that killed three ISIS members near Dhaardaar, with no civ... | QUESTION:
Will the United States conduct an airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Mudug region of Somalia before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. military, through AFRICOM, confirms it has carried out a kinetic strike (drone or aircr... | QUESTION:
Will the United States conduct an airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Mudug region of Somalia before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. military, through AFRICOM, confirms it has carried out a kinetic strike (drone or aircr... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States conduct an airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Mudug region of Somalia before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resol... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHCaToLTHQQIzwEY02mmOfDNuMhz_fdOEFCOjMOLkPdAyjPzSOV3QVKo9Bwg1fQ2Qt9Gv-kTTuFyK0GxWqY_H2eZtAAquDs3KRQAIOymmnG0QR6PnhUpzOutmQw5vOkLKlFraUpf6HQbrM5-u-34WoItc9caBvC0w_iQPqTasqurKP6msDG0YnjEKKitQyKxqtoFVm6FGHqK... | {"search_query": "military airstrike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "(SOMALIA) — A United States military airstrike in Somalia targeted the top Islamic State leader in late May, but it remains unclear if the leader was killed in the airstrike, according to U.S. officials.\nAbdulqadir Mumin ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US airstrike in Somalia kills three ISIS members (published on 2024-06-01 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: U.S. Africa Command announced a May 31 airstrike in inland Somalia that killed three ISIS members near Dhaardaar, with no ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "3a9e440b-3569-448c-8e9e-46dcb52514a2", "processing_time_ms": 532334.426, "sample_id": "17c27d4f-c87f-4290-b603-434f25684da1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US airstrike in Somalia kills three ISIS members (published on 2024-06-01 by taskandpurpose.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: U.S. Africa Command announced a May 31 airstrike in inland Somalia that killed three ISIS members near Dhaarda... |
1ffeb595-a567-4bc3-8890-64a7927b9315 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Iran conduct a direct missile or drone strike from Iranian territory against the State of Israel before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Iranian military or IRGC launches a kinetic attack (drones, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles) that originates on Iranian soil and targets Israeli territory. Strikes by regional proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.) do not count unless launched from inside Iran. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question asks whether Iran conducted a direct missile or drone strike from its own territory against Israel between June 16, 2024, and September 1, 2024. Historical data confirms that while there were significant tensions during this period—specifically following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHcTttdkMSDm3iIofJ_y6ikgRCiBPchVxWd2O9kTpu6C4ko9K7uD49hp5YLuXHqQIwKU0xxPjaIHG3VMIjtgghbGdV5GEzSlEqaZOgroXsXJb1NRfqbx_FrKSgvJCeQhCIiYj25JgGIhO_UmohC-r0PhyWjEroRNEy6vHAsabU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEBASJAQUyL... | <html>
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Verifying if your connection is secure...</title>
<script type="text/javascript">
'use strict';
/**
... | https://www.palestinechronicle.com/military-action-alone-wont-rescue-gaza-captives-daniel-hagari/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Rethinking U.S. Middle East Policy (published on 2024-05-28 by nationalinterest.org) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: The Middle East faces escalating crisis post-October 7, highlighted by the direct Israel-Iran standoff, signaling a shift from shadow war... | QUESTION:
Will Iran conduct a direct missile or drone strike from Iranian territory against the State of Israel before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Iranian military or IRGC launches a kinetic attack (drones, cruise missiles, or ballistic missil... | QUESTION:
Will Iran conduct a direct missile or drone strike from Iranian territory against the State of Israel before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Iranian military or IRGC launches a kinetic attack (drones, cruise missiles, or ballistic missil... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Iran conduct a direct missile or drone strike from Iranian territory against the State of Israel before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolutio... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHcTttdkMSDm3iIofJ_y6ikgRCiBPchVxWd2O9kTpu6C4ko9K7uD49hp5YLuXHqQIwKU0xxPjaIHG3VMIjtgghbGdV5GEzSlEqaZOgroXsXJb1NRfqbx_FrKSgvJCeQhCIiYj25JgGIhO_UmohC-r0PhyWjEroRNEy6vHAsabU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html>\n<head>\n <meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text/html; charset=UTF-8\">\n <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n <title>Verifying i... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rethinking U.S. Middle East Policy (published on 2024-05-28 by nationalinterest.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Middle East faces escalating crisis post-October 7, highlighted by the direct Israel-Iran standoff, signaling a shift from shadow ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "15bc8f78-82ea-4a0e-984b-af1fef00e5d8", "processing_time_ms": 13944.44, "sample_id": "ba73763d-b97a-458d-9b5f-4cbeb6987b3f"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rethinking U.S. Middle East Policy (published on 2024-05-28 by nationalinterest.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Middle East faces escalating crisis post-October 7, highlighted by the direct Israel-Iran standoff, signaling a shift ... |
51963193-28b4-4c68-badb-42b6a6333293 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint large-scale bombing campaign targeting Houthi sites in Sana'a before September 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statement confirming a coordinated multilateral aerial bombardment (involving both nations' assets) against military targets in the city of Sana'a, Yemen, between June 16, 2024, and August 31, 2024. Routine ind... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of June 16, 2024, and the close date of September 1, 2024, there were no reported joint large-scale bombing campaigns conducted by the United States and United Kingdom targeting Houthi sites in Sana'a. While the US and UK have conducted several rounds of joint major strikes (Operation Poseidon... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH8qNJuVMj_EADSM_7QaVYUMytLFXFnCIUp7J8jbayC6C_ZYq5syEN-fsqZEHrAE-SQKqrAibmM16pnEnSVHQoxm64pWQGd87M2aDYaeZvpXXvuhMlndE-jtxRtyOPGMX3T4UX6ipng-Ko7cCQDfQE3_BNBU0EHhMzMt48i, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFcpTqIJmGV2Fo6... | The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden this past week.
On Saturday, June 15, a helicopter from Helicopter Maritime Strike S... | https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-rescue/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: Yemen's Houthis threatened escalation after U.S./U.K. strikes, which allegedly killed ... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint large-scale bombing campaign targeting Houthi sites in Sana'a before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statem... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint large-scale bombing campaign targeting Houthi sites in Sana'a before September 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statem... | {"date_close": "2024-09-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States and United Kingdom conduct a joint large-scale bombing campaign targeting Houthi sites in Sana'a before September 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUE... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH8qNJuVMj_EADSM_7QaVYUMytLFXFnCIUp7J8jbayC6C_ZYq5syEN-fsqZEHrAE-SQKqrAibmM16pnEnSVHQoxm64pWQGd87M2aDYaeZvpXXvuhMlndE-jtxRtyOPGMX3T4UX6ipng-Ko7cCQDfQE3_BNBU0EHhMzMt48i, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis threatened escalation after U.S./U.K. strikes, which allegedly kill... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "21ac93cd-03c1-448f-918a-a321f0e38b32", "processing_time_ms": 459311.697, "sample_id": "35c29725-6d77-4eba-a8b2-106fa6b75c65"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis threatened escalation after U.S./U.K. strikes, which al... |
5ceb198f-03bc-4f59-87d2-b9843b4c2023 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 2024-07-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower physically arrives at Naval Station Norfolk following the conclusion of its current deployment in the Middle East before August 15, 2024. This tracks whether the deployment is extended further due to Houthi attacks as mentioned in the seed text. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) officially returned to its homeport at Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia, on July 14, 2024, after a 275-day combat deployment. The question date was 2024-06-16 and the close date was 2024-08-15. Since the return occurred on July 14, 2024, which is before the deadline of August 15, 20... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHfY3x3DIPco0zBZLdSNE3IXAvaA3TU8428J0pqG0UIfTZZjstQ8ohuhKtXnkTew1j75N-6ApYDzOsoUaoJW5V85BQUOFhgOVS_p8XFHzdzj5UG5FoBSJRSGiB4HV94H4IZy4uzxLlDnOZkCer0f02Q8clcQOHrJxLCC-cOji1AbNrksQESL2H5CMWW7Qbw3-TIdjidu56RANYd8ADLrcNW6CAHxuDlcF8S7CyJCTAEG_XqpeCpVCd1KjWRC... | The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden this past week.
On Saturday, June 15, a helicopter from Helicopter Maritime Strike S... | https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-rescue/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Eisenhower carrier strike group deployment extended (published on 2024-06-02 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a second one-month extension for the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group, keep... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower physically arrives at Naval Station Norfolk following the conclusion of its current dep... | QUESTION:
Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower physically arrives at Naval Station Norfolk following the conclusion of its current dep... | {"date_close": "2024-08-15T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) return to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, before August 15, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "Th... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHfY3x3DIPco0zBZLdSNE3IXAvaA3TU8428J0pqG0UIfTZZjstQ8ohuhKtXnkTew1j75N-6ApYDzOsoUaoJW5V85BQUOFhgOVS_p8XFHzdzj5UG5FoBSJRSGiB4HV94H4IZy4uzxLlDnOZkCer0f02Q8clcQOHrJxLCC-cOji1AbNrksQESL2H5CMWW7Qbw3-TIdjidu56RA... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Eisenhower carrier strike group deployment extended (published on 2024-06-02 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a second one-month extension for the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group, k... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "21ac93cd-03c1-448f-918a-a321f0e38b32", "processing_time_ms": 67129.012, "sample_id": "dff3627a-7913-4bab-8396-11e07ebe6bc3"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Eisenhower carrier strike group deployment extended (published on 2024-06-02 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a second one-month extension for the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier str... |
c09c8b31-7199-4c53-8488-3bd4861dee87 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces sink a commercial merchant vessel in the Red Sea using anti-ship ballistic or cruise missiles before December 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-18T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (non-military) is confirmed to have sunk as a direct result of damage sustained from Houthi-launched missiles between June 16, 2024, and December 31, 2024. Confirmation must come from maritime authorities (e.g., UKMTO) or official government statements. Ab... | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The MV Tutor, a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned commercial bulk carrier, was attacked by Houthi forces in the Red Sea on June 12, 2024. The attack involved an unmanned surface vessel (USV) and an airborne projectile, identified by maritime security sources and the U.S. military as a missile. Following the attack, the ves... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHpRogT3rNT6zP62p7GIMNTq4Xw6lOcjXRkE5GgnsAenh5nfPe-J3jTWwh-JI-SXmIaWoGwJCvPPGllhSJN3jM5PBNsgLWPrYS6VUq9DzHBlNQVtnL20SMgI_H7IPCA8PF42wwdb5zuIW920EldmetGwpJCVuwqHwXSwbmiGg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFskKa_X9RJ... | The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden this past week.
On Saturday, June 15, a helicopter from Helicopter Maritime Strike S... | https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-rescue/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Iran News: Tehran Gave Ballistic Missile Technology to Yemeni Houthis, IRGC Mouthpiece Confirms (published on 2024-05-29 by ncr-iran.org) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: Iran's IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency confirmed Tehran transferred its first ant... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces sink a commercial merchant vessel in the Red Sea using anti-ship ballistic or cruise missiles before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (non-military) is confirmed to have sunk as a direct result... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces sink a commercial merchant vessel in the Red Sea using anti-ship ballistic or cruise missiles before December 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if a commercial merchant vessel (non-military) is confirmed to have sunk as a direct result... | {"date_close": "2025-01-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces sink a commercial merchant vessel in the Red Sea using anti-ship ballistic or cruise missiles before December 31, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION",... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHpRogT3rNT6zP62p7GIMNTq4Xw6lOcjXRkE5GgnsAenh5nfPe-J3jTWwh-JI-SXmIaWoGwJCvPPGllhSJN3jM5PBNsgLWPrYS6VUq9DzHBlNQVtnL20SMgI_H7IPCA8PF42wwdb5zuIW920EldmetGwpJCVuwqHwXSwbmiGg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran News: Tehran Gave Ballistic Missile Technology to Yemeni Houthis, IRGC Mouthpiece Confirms (published on 2024-05-29 by ncr-iran.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Iran's IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency confirmed Tehran transferred its first ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "21ac93cd-03c1-448f-918a-a321f0e38b32", "processing_time_ms": 1052159.949, "sample_id": "6d0affcc-501c-4009-b567-a7d99c67a000"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran News: Tehran Gave Ballistic Missile Technology to Yemeni Houthis, IRGC Mouthpiece Confirms (published on 2024-05-29 by ncr-iran.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Iran's IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency confirmed Tehran transferre... |
c95f9ff5-430b-46f3-b2c6-f11344ce7b03 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on Hezbollah targets within the city limits of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 16, 2024, and July 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the Israeli Defense Forces conducting one or more airstrikes within the city limits of Beirut, Lebanon, during the specified period. It resolves to 'No' otherwise. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of 2024-06-16 and the close date of 2024-08-01, the IDF conducted one high-profile airstrike in the Beirut area on July 30, 2024, which killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. However, this strike occurred in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of the Dahieh (southern suburbs), which is part of the Ba... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHVNBc6GgvjBrO1VM-4B0EuqUaUGNw8UTtwFCt2QjTZ-5EIye2xwLU389h4lRdcFcIJ5DJ4daKF8DxdaBnrkswg8x1zReDz_rZMITe1JeVsCuJLvJLsK3BFZguQknvFAGQTC924-eytRY__e5w1fw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFDJJwhGUE6fX0nNTIIGs2RCizZ4qpV... | <html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Verifying if your connection is secure...</title>
<script type="text/javascript">
'use strict';
/**
... | https://www.palestinechronicle.com/military-action-alone-wont-rescue-gaza-captives-daniel-hagari/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Hezbollah launches rockets, drones at northern Israel military sites (published on 2024-06-13 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Hezbollah launched its largest attack since October 8, firing 150 rockets and 30 drones at 15 Israeli military... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on Hezbollah targets within the city limits of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 16, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the... | QUESTION:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on Hezbollah targets within the city limits of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 16, 2024, and July 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are credible news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) of the... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conduct an airstrike on Hezbollah targets within the city limits of Beirut, Lebanon, between June 16, 2024, and July 31, 2024?", "question_type": "... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHVNBc6GgvjBrO1VM-4B0EuqUaUGNw8UTtwFCt2QjTZ-5EIye2xwLU389h4lRdcFcIJ5DJ4daKF8DxdaBnrkswg8x1zReDz_rZMITe1JeVsCuJLvJLsK3BFZguQknvFAGQTC924-eytRY__e5w1fw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html>\n<head>\n <meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text/html; charset=UTF-8\">\n <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n <title>Verifying i... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Hezbollah launches rockets, drones at northern Israel military sites (published on 2024-06-13 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah launched its largest attack since October 8, firing 150 rockets and 30 drones at 15 Israeli milit... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "8ee49ea7-23e6-4038-9b43-8783b27f7b0f", "processing_time_ms": 15507.901, "sample_id": "15bc8f78-82ea-4a0e-984b-af1fef00e5d8"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Hezbollah launches rockets, drones at northern Israel military sites (published on 2024-06-13 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Hezbollah launched its largest attack since October 8, firing 150 rockets and 30 drones at 15 I... |
d7f3416e-58f8-4956-a982-23bf4f4836d9 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Ukrainian forces conduct a drone strike on an oil refinery located within the internationally recognized borders of Russia between June 16, 2024, and July 15, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-21T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if any oil refinery in Russian territory is hit by one or more drones launched by Ukrainian forces, as confirmed by satellite imagery, Russian state officials, or Ukrainian military spokespersons. Minor damage or total destruction both qualify. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Ukrainian forces conducted several drone strikes on oil refineries within the internationally recognized borders of Russia between the question date of June 16, 2024, and the close date of July 15, 2024. Most notably, on June 21, 2024, the Ukrainian military and SBU confirmed targeted drone attacks on the Afipsky, Ilsk... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE01JQp2-fXAS3lfdCZGR3usr1sdglXxbJlWl-TSC8ByPkDILN1eep8NxuJCQv-gJ1A9Z6ZWbhAkbp62RH5rRduanWB9fMLqHDrdJIzM0SKcKodirnY7PVF8zlqTiZ93iwqsaB7aOGB3Fq1Vij27AvkBGJFtMr4PzD-DU6KJUft6wzKakWKJpPj_xmAtmTbT1JNIw-I4qdIWAHDsP471ZjDAKOhYn0891EAAVY3bMNLjd8=, https://ver... | <html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Verifying if your connection is secure...</title>
<script type="text/javascript">
'use strict';
/**
... | https://www.palestinechronicle.com/military-action-alone-wont-rescue-gaza-captives-daniel-hagari/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | military strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. An... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a drone strike on an oil refinery located within the internationally recognized borders of Russia between June 16, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if any oil refinery in Russian territory is hit by one or mor... | QUESTION:
Will Ukrainian forces conduct a drone strike on an oil refinery located within the internationally recognized borders of Russia between June 16, 2024, and July 15, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if any oil refinery in Russian territory is hit by one or mor... | {"date_close": "2024-07-16T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Ukrainian forces conduct a drone strike on an oil refinery located within the internationally recognized borders of Russia between June 16, 2024, and July 15, 2024?", "question_typ... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE01JQp2-fXAS3lfdCZGR3usr1sdglXxbJlWl-TSC8ByPkDILN1eep8NxuJCQv-gJ1A9Z6ZWbhAkbp62RH5rRduanWB9fMLqHDrdJIzM0SKcKodirnY7PVF8zlqTiZ93iwqsaB7aOGB3Fq1Vij27AvkBGJFtMr4PzD-DU6KJUft6wzKakWKJpPj_xmAtmTbT1JNIw-I4qdIW... | {"search_query": "military strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "<html>\n<head>\n <meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text/html; charset=UTF-8\">\n <meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n <meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n <title>Verifying i... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don, Russia.... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "15bc8f78-82ea-4a0e-984b-af1fef00e5d8", "processing_time_ms": 13944.357, "sample_id": "08bf5f06-f49b-4168-8f8b-40b6af4e1eaf"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil refinery burns again in drone attack (published on 2024-06-06 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov-on-... |
ecac127f-8df7-4083-9b71-55a8eef9aac4 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Israel conduct a direct airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen before November 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-20T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or the Israeli government officially takes credit for, or is confirmed by U.S. intelligence officials to have conducted, an airstrike or missile strike against targets within Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen between June 16, 2024, and October 31, 2024. | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Israel conducted its first-ever direct airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on July 20, 2024, in an operation named 'Outstretched Arm.' This strike targeted fuel depots and infrastructure at the port of Al Hudaydah (Hodeidah) in response to a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv. A second large-scale direct air... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEl3mUgdcKuelGPIwyLdVVvqZdH3Qj8oUwdImJ-r0T28cmSBGh6OOQYl0g6bkiDxDrubGuRdY3WPkp9kW5uGZ6DP47ybefnUSO1uyFC0L6DzIY1SKNUOvHV-Xyn6OYQhzTlsed1gLH2XuvHkqY1YS-1fGHP_BAeAP7EgMNWR0ZiiyLy6g==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFZ... | The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden this past week.
On Saturday, June 15, a helicopter from Helicopter Maritime Strike S... | https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-rescue/ | 2024-06-16T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] US seeks to block Houthi revenues in possible threat to Yemen truce: Report (published on 2024-06-06 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 4.0)
Summary: The US and allies are increasing efforts to block Houthi revenues, potentially jeopardizing the UN-led ... | QUESTION:
Will Israel conduct a direct airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or the Israeli government officially takes credit for, or is confirmed by U.S. intelligence... | QUESTION:
Will Israel conduct a direct airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen before November 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-16
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or the Israeli government officially takes credit for, or is confirmed by U.S. intelligence... | {"date_close": "2024-11-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Israel conduct a direct airstrike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen before November 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "resolution_criteria": "This quest... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEl3mUgdcKuelGPIwyLdVVvqZdH3Qj8oUwdImJ-r0T28cmSBGh6OOQYl0g6bkiDxDrubGuRdY3WPkp9kW5uGZ6DP47ybefnUSO1uyFC0L6DzIY1SKNUOvHV-Xyn6OYQhzTlsed1gLH2XuvHkqY1YS-1fGHP_BAeAP7EgMNWR0ZiiyLy6g==, https://vertexaisearch.... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-16T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy rescued two dozen civilian sailors on the Red Sea after their ship was critically damaged by Yemen's Houthi militants. The airlift came after the Houthis were able to hit two merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf ... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US seeks to block Houthi revenues in possible threat to Yemen truce: Report (published on 2024-06-06 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The US and allies are increasing efforts to block Houthi revenues, potentially jeopardizing the UN-l... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "21ac93cd-03c1-448f-918a-a321f0e38b32", "processing_time_ms": 424256.814, "sample_id": "04b31587-6761-4eeb-81f6-fb46503913b9"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US seeks to block Houthi revenues in possible threat to Yemen truce: Report (published on 2024-06-06 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The US and allies are increasing efforts to block Houthi revenues, potentially jeopardiz... |
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