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code/make_report.py

@@ -134,9 +134,25 @@ if set1:
                   f"{np.mean([r['rungs']['M0_naive_avg']['mb_eng'] for r in _mb]):.2f} on "
                   f"MultiBLiMP-English (parent {_mb[0]['parents']['eng_on_mb_eng']:.2f}, chance 0.50). "
                   f"Δfloor and benchmark accuracy dissociate in **both** directions; neither implies the other.")
-    hl.append("7. **P0-2: the pre-merge predictors do not predict the realised rescue.** Held out by "
-              "seed pair on a complete 36-pair grid with a seed-cluster permutation null, no predictor "
-              "survives BH correction. Reported as the negative transfer result it is.")
+    _cf = []
+    if os.path.exists(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv"):
+        _rw = [l.rstrip("\n").split(",") for l in open(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv")]
+        _ii = {h: i for i, h in enumerate(_rw[0])}
+        for d in _rw[1:]:
+            try: _cf.append((d[_ii["substrate"]], d[_ii["predictor"]],
+                             float(d[_ii["auroc_heldout_by_seed"]]),
+                             float(d[_ii["bh_q_within_confirmatory_family"]] or "nan")))
+            except Exception: pass
+    _sg = [c for c in _cf if c[3] == c[3] and c[3] < 0.05]
+    _tt = [c for c in _cf if c[3] == c[3]]
+    hl.append(f"7. **P0-2: the pre-merge predictors do not reliably predict the realised rescue.** "
+              f"Held out by seed pair, with a seed-cluster permutation null and BH within the "
+              f"five-predictor family the audit brief itself names: **{len(_sg)} of {len(_tt)} cells "
+              f"significant**"
+              + (" (" + "; ".join(f"{c[0]}, {c[1]}, AUROC {c[2]:.2f}, q={c[3]:.3f}" for c in _sg) + ")" if _sg else "")
+              + ". It does not replicate across substrates — the same predictor sits below 0.5 at the "
+                "largest size — and nothing survives BH across the wider exploratory family. Reported "
+                "as the negative transfer result it is.")
     if _rp:
         hl.append("8. **This is not an under-trying artifact.** REPAIR-style statistics correction on "
                   "top of the alignment — the strongest training-free merge here — improves the "
@@ -508,6 +524,37 @@ follow that the English-anchored direction alone could not support:
 """)
 
 L.append("\n## P0-2 · Do the pre-merge predictors predict the realised rescue?\n")
+if os.path.exists(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv"):
+    rows = [l.rstrip("\n").split(",") for l in open(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv")]
+    hdr, dat = rows[0], rows[1:]
+    ix = {h: i for i, h in enumerate(hdr)}
+    L.append("""### The confirmatory test
+
+Outcome = **realised rescue**: the fraction of the naive merge's Δfloor that the best M1 rung removes.
+Label = above the within-substrate median. **Held out by seed**: fold *k* is every pair touching seed
+*k*, fitted on the pairs touching neither, so the predictor's direction never sees the held-out pairs.
+Null = a **seed-cluster permutation** (2000 draws): permute the seed identities and re-map each pair's
+outcome to the permuted pair, leaving the predictor vector untouched. That preserves the pair
+dependence structure a plain label shuffle destroys, and it is why the null means below sit at 0.50
+rather than drifting.
+
+The family below is the five predictors **the audit brief itself names** — weight cosine, coordinate
+share, QMD, CKA, task-vector cosine — on the one outcome it asks about. It was fixed from the brief,
+not selected after looking at the results, and BH is applied within this family only. The larger
+exploratory table follows it.
+
+""")
+    L.append(md_table(["substrate", "predictor", "n", "Spearman", "AUROC (held out by seed)",
+                       "null mean", "perm p", "BH q (within family)"],
+                      [[d[ix["substrate"]], d[ix["predictor"]], d[ix["n_pairs"]],
+                        fmt(float(d[ix["spearman"]]) if d[ix["spearman"]] else None),
+                        fmt(float(d[ix["auroc_heldout_by_seed"]]) if d[ix["auroc_heldout_by_seed"]] else None),
+                        fmt(float(d[ix["perm_null_mean"]]) if d[ix["perm_null_mean"]] else None),
+                        fmt(float(d[ix["perm_p"]]) if d[ix["perm_p"]] else None),
+                        fmt(float(d[ix["bh_q_within_confirmatory_family"]]) if d[ix["bh_q_within_confirmatory_family"]] else None)]
+                       for d in dat]))
+    L.append("\n### The exploratory table\n")
+
 if os.path.exists(f"{R}/predictor_auroc.csv"):
     rows = [l.rstrip("\n").split(",") for l in open(f"{R}/predictor_auroc.csv")]
     hdr, dat = rows[0], rows[1:]
@@ -562,27 +609,60 @@ if os.path.exists(f"{R}/set4_predictors.csv"):
                        for d in dat]))
 
 # coverage
-L.append("""
+_conf = []
+if os.path.exists(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv"):
+    _rows = [l.rstrip("\n").split(",") for l in open(f"{R}/predictor_confirmatory.csv")]
+    _ix = {h: i for i, h in enumerate(_rows[0])}
+    for d in _rows[1:]:
+        try:
+            _conf.append({"sub": d[_ix["substrate"]], "pred": d[_ix["predictor"]],
+                          "auroc": float(d[_ix["auroc_heldout_by_seed"]]),
+                          "q": float(d[_ix["bh_q_within_confirmatory_family"]] or "nan")})
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+_sig = [c for c in _conf if c["q"] == c["q"] and c["q"] < 0.05]
+_tested = [c for c in _conf if c["q"] == c["q"]]
+L.append(f"""
 ### What P0-2 comes to
 
-**Within a single substrate, nothing predicts the realised rescue.** On pythia-14m — 36 seed pairs,
-a complete grid, a properly structured seed-cluster null — every pre-merge predictor we computed
-(weight cosine, QMD in weight space and in representation space, coordinate share, CKA, task-vector
-cosine) lands between AUROC 0.30 and 0.68 held out by seed, and **not one survives BH correction**.
-The multivariate ridge over all of them does no better. This is a negative transfer result and it is
-reported as one: the alignment-derived quantities that predict mergeability in the synthetic/S3
-setting do **not** rank real reseeded-LM pairs by how much alignment will actually rescue them.
-
-**Across substrates the picture is only slightly better and it is not consistent.** The
-block-normalised coordinate share does transfer to some held-out sizes and not to others. Read
-against the whole family that is one predictor doing well on part of the grid, not a validated
-instrument, and it should not be quoted as a headline number.
-
-Two honest caveats in the other direction. First, the *within-substrate* variance in rescue is small
-relative to the *between*-substrate variance — every pair at a given size is rescued by roughly the
-same amount — so there may simply be little signal left for a within-size predictor to find. Second,
-the seed-cluster null is conservative by construction. Neither rescues the positive claim: on this
-substrate, at this n, the predictors do not predict.
+**The confirmatory family gives {len(_sig)} significant cell{'' if len(_sig) == 1 else 's'} out of
+{len(_tested)} tested** (BH q < 0.05 within the family){':' if _sig else '.'}
+""" + ("".join(f"\n- {c['sub']} · {c['pred']} · AUROC {c['auroc']:.3f} · q = {c['q']:.3f}" for c in _sig) if _sig else "") + """
+
+That is a real effect and it should not be rounded down to zero. It should also not be rounded up.
+The predictor that carries it is the **coordinate share** — exactly the quantity the manuscript's
+thesis is about — and the honest summary is:
+
+- **It does not replicate across substrates.** The same predictor's held-out AUROC across the sizes
+  we ran is not stable, and at the largest size it sits *below* 0.5, i.e. pointing the wrong way. A
+  quantity that predicts the rescue on one substrate and anti-predicts it on another is not a
+  validated instrument for "representational alignment predicts merging".
+- **The exploratory table looks better than the confirmatory one, and that is the point of having
+  both.** Across ~150 predictor × substrate × outcome cells there are plenty of AUROCs in the
+  0.70–0.81 range with raw permutation p below 0.05; none survives BH across that family. Quoting
+  the best of them would be exactly the error the audit exists to catch.
+- **Across-substrate transfer is likewise partial.** Fitting on the other sizes and testing on a
+  held-out one, the coordinate share transfers to some substrates and not to others (table above).
+
+One thing worth noticing before concluding, because it is partly a power story rather than a signal
+story: **detectability tracks how much the outcome varies at all.** The within-substrate standard
+deviation of the realised rescue is 0.067 at 14m, 0.143 at 31m, 0.127 at 70m and 0.095 at 160m
+(against a between-substrate spread of 0.143 in the means). 14m — where the rescue is both largest
+and most uniform across pairs — is the substrate where nothing predicts, and 70m, with roughly twice
+the spread, is where the one significant cell appears. So part of the null is that at some sizes
+every pair is rescued by nearly the same amount and there is very little left to rank. That is a
+caveat in the predictors' favour and it does not rescue the positive claim: a predictor that only
+resolves when the outcome happens to be dispersed is not the instrument the thesis needs.
+
+Against them: the seed-cluster null is
+conservative by construction, but so is the design that needs it; these are 36 pairs built from 9
+seeds, not 36 independent observations, and any analysis that treats them as independent will
+overstate its significance.
+
+**Verdict, stated as the audit asks.** On real reseeded LMs, the pre-merge alignment predictors do
+not reliably predict how much of the merge obstruction alignment will actually remove. The one
+substrate where the coordinate share does predict it does not generalise to the others. This is a
+negative transfer result from the synthetic/S3 setting to real models, and it is reported as one.
 """)
 
 abl = load("abl_*.jsonl")