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README.md
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## Headline
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> **Alignment did not improve downstream accuracy on a single real model — because on every
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> real model there was nothing to align.**
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>
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> naive chat vectors are bit-identical models and the accuracy difference is 0.000 on every
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> benchmark. The diagnostic said so **before** any merge was built, and a 44-second screen
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> reproduces that call 37x cheaper than fitting the map. When the frame really has drifted —
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> a real fork acted on by a random element of its own symmetry group — the naive chat vector
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> collapses (IFEval 0.175 -> 0.110, *below* the fork it started from) and alignment restores
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> it to 0.355 against an unpermuted reference of 0.375. **The mechanism is real and does reach
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> accuracy; the ecosystem condition that would make it pay off did not occur in
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>
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Population: **
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- On **
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- The chat-vector recipe itself **works** on
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- The diagnostic's registered prediction was correct on **
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- On the ground-truth control (a real fork acted on by a random element of the model's own symmetry group — functionally identical, differently parameterised), the diagnostic fires (coordinate share **0.856**), the naive chat vector scores IFEval **0.110**, and aligning it first recovers **0.355** (Δ **+0.245**).
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## Contents
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| path | what |
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## Headline
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> **Alignment did not improve downstream accuracy on a single real model — because on every
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> real model there was nothing to align.** Every community fork of `Llama-3.1-8B` we tested is
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> still exactly in the base model's coordinate frame, so the aligned and
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> naive chat vectors are bit-identical models and the accuracy difference is 0.000 on every
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> benchmark. The diagnostic said so **before** any merge was built, and a 44-second screen
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> reproduces that call 37x cheaper than fitting the map. When the frame really has drifted —
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> a real fork acted on by a random element of its own symmetry group — the naive chat vector
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> collapses (IFEval 0.175 -> 0.110, *below* the fork it started from) and alignment restores
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> it to 0.355 against an unpermuted reference of 0.375. **The mechanism is real and does reach
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> accuracy; the ecosystem condition that would make it pay off did not occur in any released
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> model we examined.**
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Population: **4 real community forks** measured end-to-end on accuracy (3 groups, 3 target languages), **3 ground-truth controls**, one cross-group direct-merge pair, and a **10-model ecosystem screen**. Across all **13 released `Llama-3.1-8B` derivatives** examined — language forks, domain continued pretraining, instruct post-training, a safety model — **not one** had left the base model's coordinate frame.
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- On **4 of 4** real community CPT forks the fitted alignment map is the **identity** (coordinate share exactly 0; every per-layer MLP and attention-head permutation comes back as the identity). Continued pretraining by a third party did **not** move these models out of the base model's frame, so the chat vector is already expressed in the right basis and aligning it is a no-op. The measured accuracy difference is **exactly zero on every benchmark** — the aligned and naive merges are bit-identical models.
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- The chat-vector recipe itself **works** on 3 of 4 of these forks: it lifts instruction following well above the fork it started from, i.e. the merged model beats its own parent — the bar that matters.
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- The diagnostic's registered prediction was correct on **4/4** real forks.
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- On the ground-truth control (a real fork acted on by a random element of the model's own symmetry group — functionally identical, differently parameterised), the diagnostic fires (coordinate share **0.856**), the naive chat vector scores IFEval **0.110**, and aligning it first recovers **0.355** (Δ **+0.245**).
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## Contents
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| path | what |
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