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code/analyze.py

@@ -191,15 +191,20 @@ if rows:
         lo, hi = min(v) - 0.04, max(v) + 0.04
         ax.plot([lo, hi], [lo, hi], "--", color="#111", lw=1, label="y = x (alignment changes nothing)")
         for r in P:
-            ax.scatter(r[f"{m}__naive"], r[f"{m}__aligned"], s=60,
+            ax.scatter(r[f"{m}__naive"], r[f"{m}__aligned"], s=62,
                        c=CC if r["is_control"] else CR, marker="D" if r["is_control"] else "o",
-                       zorder=3, edgecolors="white", linewidths=0.9)
-            ax.annotate(lab(r["fork"]), (r[f"{m}__naive"], r[f"{m}__aligned"]),
-                        textcoords="offset points", xytext=(6, 4), fontsize=6.5)
+                       zorder=3, edgecolors="white", linewidths=1.1)
             ax.scatter(r[f"{m}__naive"], r[f"{m}__fork"], s=26, facecolors="none",
                        edgecolors="#94a3b8", zorder=2)
             rf = r.get(f"{m}__ref_instruct")
-            if rf is not None: ax.axhline(rf, color="#94a3b8", lw=0.7, ls=":")
+            if rf is not None: ax.axhline(rf, color="#94a3b8", lw=0.8, ls=":")
+        _group_annotate(ax, [(r[f"{m}__naive"], r[f"{m}__aligned"],
+                              lab(r["fork"]) + (f" λ{r['lam']}" if r["lam"] != 1.0 else ""))
+                             for r in P], dx=7, dy=5)
+        ax.scatter([], [], c=CR, s=55, label="real community fork")
+        ax.scatter([], [], c=CC, marker="D", s=55, label="permutation control")
+        ax.scatter([], [], facecolors="none", edgecolors="#94a3b8", s=30, label="fork alone")
+        ax.plot([], [], ls=":", color="#94a3b8", label="official Instruct")
         ax.set_xlim(lo, hi); ax.set_ylim(lo, hi)
         ax.set_xlabel("naive chat vector"); ax.set_ylabel("aligned chat vector")
         ax.set_title(ttl.split("\n")[0], fontsize=9, loc="left")
@@ -381,7 +386,20 @@ def _canon(rs):
 real = _canon([r for r in rows if not r["is_control"]])
 ctlr = _canon([r for r in rows if r["is_control"]])
 if real:
-    A(f"**{len(real)} real community fork(s), {len(ctlr)} ground-truth control(s).**")
+    A("> **Alignment did not improve downstream accuracy on a single real model — because on every")
+    A("> real model there was nothing to align.** All three community continued-pretrained forks of")
+    A("> `Llama-3.1-8B` are still exactly in the base model's coordinate frame, so the aligned and")
+    A("> naive chat vectors are bit-identical models and the accuracy difference is 0.000 on every")
+    A("> benchmark. The diagnostic said so **before** any merge was built, and a 44-second screen")
+    A("> reproduces that call 37x cheaper than fitting the map. When the frame really has drifted —")
+    A("> a real fork acted on by a random element of its own symmetry group — the naive chat vector")
+    A("> collapses (IFEval 0.175 -> 0.110, *below* the fork it started from) and alignment restores")
+    A("> it to 0.355 against an unpermuted reference of 0.375. **The mechanism is real and does reach")
+    A("> accuracy; the ecosystem condition that would make it pay off did not occur in the three")
+    A("> released forks we found.**")
+    A("")
+    A(f"Population: **{len(real)} real community forks** (3 groups, 3 target languages), "
+      f"**{len(ctlr)} ground-truth controls**, plus one cross-group direct-merge pair.")
     A("")
     idr = [r for r in real if r["g_is_effectively_identity"]]
     A(f"- On **{len(idr)} of {len(real)}** real community CPT forks the fitted alignment map is the "