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code/analyze.py

@@ -251,6 +251,42 @@ if rows:
         plt.close(fig)
 
 
+# ---- ecosystem figure: parameter drift does NOT imply frame drift ----------------------------
+try:
+    _eco = {k: v for k, v in json.load(open(f"{RES}/ecosystem_screen.json")).items()
+            if v.get("status") == "screened"}
+except Exception:
+    _eco = {}
+if _eco:
+    ctlpts = [(r["frac_layers_permuted"], SCR_CTL.get(r["fork"], 0.0), r)
+              for r in rows if r["is_control"]] if False else []
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7.6, 4.2))
+    xs = [v["rel_drift"] for v in _eco.values()]
+    ys = [v["identity_fraction_worst_layer"] for v in _eco.values()]
+    ax.scatter(xs, ys, s=62, c=CR, zorder=3, edgecolors="white", linewidths=1.1,
+               label=f"released derivative ({len(_eco)})")
+    try:
+        _sc = json.load(open(f"{RES}/cheap_screen.json"))
+        cx = [r["rel_drift"] for r in rows if r["is_control"] and r["lam"] == 1.0]
+        cy = [_sc.get(r["fork"], {}).get("identity_fraction_worst_layer", np.nan)
+              for r in rows if r["is_control"] and r["lam"] == 1.0]
+        if cx:
+            ax.scatter(cx, cy, s=90, c=CC, marker="D", zorder=3, edgecolors="white",
+                       linewidths=1.1, label="permutation control (ground truth)")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    ax.axhline(0.95, color="#b45309", ls=":", lw=1.2)
+    ax.annotate("screen threshold 0.95", (max(xs) * 0.98, 0.95), textcoords="offset points",
+                xytext=(0, -14), fontsize=7.5, color="#b45309", ha="right")
+    ax.set_ylim(-0.06, 1.06)
+    ax.set_xlabel("parameter drift from the base model  ||theta_fork - theta_base|| / ||theta_base||")
+    ax.set_ylabel("worst-layer identity fraction\n(1.0 = still in the base model's frame)")
+    ax.set_title("Moving a long way in parameter space does not move you out of the parameterisation",
+                 fontsize=9.5, loc="left", color="#334155")
+    ax.legend(fontsize=7.5, frameon=False, loc="center right")
+    fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(f"{FIG}/ecosystem_drift_vs_frame.png", bbox_inches="tight")
+    plt.close(fig)
+
 # ---- SELECTION EXPERIMENT ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Honest accounting. The `coord_share` used everywhere else is obtained BY fitting g, so
 # "diagnose, then align" cannot claim to save the fit -- they are the same computation, and a
@@ -387,19 +423,30 @@ real = _canon([r for r in rows if not r["is_control"]])
 ctlr = _canon([r for r in rows if r["is_control"]])
 if real:
     A("> **Alignment did not improve downstream accuracy on a single real model — because on every")
-    A("> real model there was nothing to align.** All three community continued-pretrained forks of")
-    A("> `Llama-3.1-8B` are still exactly in the base model's coordinate frame, so the aligned and")
+    A("> real model there was nothing to align.** Every community fork of `Llama-3.1-8B` we tested is")
+    A("> still exactly in the base model's coordinate frame, so the aligned and")
     A("> naive chat vectors are bit-identical models and the accuracy difference is 0.000 on every")
     A("> benchmark. The diagnostic said so **before** any merge was built, and a 44-second screen")
     A("> reproduces that call 37x cheaper than fitting the map. When the frame really has drifted —")
     A("> a real fork acted on by a random element of its own symmetry group — the naive chat vector")
     A("> collapses (IFEval 0.175 -> 0.110, *below* the fork it started from) and alignment restores")
     A("> it to 0.355 against an unpermuted reference of 0.375. **The mechanism is real and does reach")
-    A("> accuracy; the ecosystem condition that would make it pay off did not occur in the three")
-    A("> released forks we found.**")
+    A("> accuracy; the ecosystem condition that would make it pay off did not occur in any released")
+    A("> model we examined.**")
     A("")
-    A(f"Population: **{len(real)} real community forks** (3 groups, 3 target languages), "
-      f"**{len(ctlr)} ground-truth controls**, plus one cross-group direct-merge pair.")
+    try:
+        _e = {k: v for k, v in json.load(open(f"{RES}/ecosystem_screen.json")).items()
+              if v.get("status") == "screened"}
+    except Exception:
+        _e = {}
+    _tot = len(set(list(_e) + [get(r["fork"], "fork_alone").get("model") for r in real
+                               if get(r["fork"], "fork_alone")]))
+    A(f"Population: **{len(real)} real community forks** measured end-to-end on accuracy "
+      f"(3 groups, 3 target languages), **{len(ctlr)} ground-truth controls**, one cross-group "
+      f"direct-merge pair, and a **{len(_e)}-model ecosystem screen**. Across all "
+      f"**{_tot} released `Llama-3.1-8B` derivatives** examined — language forks, domain continued "
+      f"pretraining, instruct post-training, a safety model — **not one** had left the base "
+      f"model's coordinate frame.")
     A("")
     idr = [r for r in real if r["g_is_effectively_identity"]]
     A(f"- On **{len(idr)} of {len(real)}** real community CPT forks the fitted alignment map is the "
@@ -569,6 +616,47 @@ if len(_lams) > 1:
     A("vector pays: at λ=0.5 it lands at IFEval 0.350 against the fork's own 0.365.")
     A("")
 
+# ---- ecosystem screen -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ECO = {}
+try:
+    ECO = json.load(open(f"{RES}/ecosystem_screen.json"))
+except Exception:
+    pass
+ok_eco = {k: v for k, v in ECO.items() if v.get("status") == "screened"}
+bad_eco = {k: v for k, v in ECO.items() if v.get("status") == "shape mismatch"}
+if ok_eco:
+    n_drift = sum(1 for v in ok_eco.values() if v["frame_has_drifted"])
+    A("## 3d. Does ANY released model have a drifted frame? (ecosystem screen)")
+    A("")
+    A("Three forks is a thin population for an ecosystem claim, so we ran the 44-second screen over")
+    A(f"a broader sample of released `Llama-3.1-8B` derivatives — language forks, domain continued")
+    A("pretraining, instruct post-training and a safety model, from different groups — streaming each")
+    A("checkpoint in and deleting it again.")
+    A("")
+    A("| model | what it is | group | param. drift | weight cos | worst-layer identity | frame |")
+    A("|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|")
+    for k, v in sorted(ok_eco.items(), key=lambda kv: -kv[1]["rel_drift"]):
+        A(f"| `{k}` | {v['kind']} | {v['group']} | {v['rel_drift']:.4f} | "
+          f"{v['weight_cosine_vs_base']:.4f} | {v['identity_fraction_worst_layer']:.4f} | "
+          f"{'**DRIFTED**' if v['frame_has_drifted'] else 'same frame'} |")
+    A("")
+    A(f"**{n_drift} of {len(ok_eco)}** released derivatives have left the base model's coordinate")
+    A("frame. Parameter drift across this sample spans "
+      f"**{min(v['rel_drift'] for v in ok_eco.values()):.3f} to "
+      f"{max(v['rel_drift'] for v in ok_eco.values()):.3f}** — a "
+      f"{max(v['rel_drift'] for v in ok_eco.values())/max(min(v['rel_drift'] for v in ok_eco.values()),1e-9):.0f}x range, "
+      "with `OpenMath2` and `Swallow v0.2` drifting further in parameter space than any of the forks")
+    A("we evaluated end-to-end — and the frame still never moves. **Moving a long way in parameter")
+    A("space does not move you out of the parameterisation.** Gradient-based post-training, whatever")
+    A("its scale or objective, does not permute neurons; only a deliberate reparameterisation does.")
+    A("")
+    if bad_eco:
+        A(f"A further **{len(bad_eco)}** derivatives (`" + "`, `".join(sorted(bad_eco)) + "`) are not")
+        A("chat-vector compatible at all: they changed the vocabulary, so the task vector's embedding")
+        A("and unembedding blocks do not even have matching shapes. That is a different failure mode,")
+        A("and alignment over the hidden-axis groups has nothing to say about it.")
+        A("")
+
 A("## 3c. What this does and does not establish")
 A("")
 A("**Established.** (i) The chat-vector recipe transfers real instruction-following ability to two")