question: Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Planet Nine be found in 2016?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?

type: timeframe prediction


question: When will the first exaflop performer appear?

type: timeframe prediction


question: How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What will be the value of a bitcoin on Nov. 1, 2017?

type: quantity estimation


question: By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: The End of NAFTA?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How many seats in the US House will Democrats control in 2018?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: When will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will the US government shut down on February 16th?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?

type: quantity estimation


question: How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?

type: quantity estimation


question: If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus's effect on the U.S. economy?

type: quantity estimation


question: What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will J.K. Rowling's "The Ickabog" reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk's bestseller list within a week of its release?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?

type: quantity estimation


question: How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?

type: quantity estimation


question: In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?

type: quantity estimation


question: When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: [Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?

type: quantity estimation


question: How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?

type: quantity estimation


question: [Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: When will be the next S&P 500 correction?

type: timeframe prediction


question: How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?

type: quantity estimation


question: How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?

type: quantity estimation


question: How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

type: quantity estimation


question: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

type: quantity estimation


question: What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?

type: quantity estimation


question: How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?

type: quantity estimation


question: What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: When will New York City's period of  consecutive rainy weekends end?

type: timeframe prediction


question: Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: On May 18th, will Kyle, Texas set the world record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

type: quantity estimation


question: Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no


question: Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?

type: Boolean question

resolution: yes


question: Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?

type: Boolean question

resolution: no