Question: Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?


Question: Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?


Question: Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?


Question: Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?


Question: In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?


Question: by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?


Question: Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?


Question: Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees?


Question: Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?


Question: Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?


Question: In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new?


Question: Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?


Question: Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?


Question: By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?


Question: Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA,  by 2021?


Question: To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?


Question: Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?


Question: Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?


Question: Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?


Question: Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?


Question: Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017?


Question: First human head transplant in 2017?


Question: Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed?


Question: Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?


Question: All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?


Question: Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory?


Question: Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?


Question: Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?


Question: Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?


Question: Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?


Question: By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?


Question: Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?


Question: Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?


Question: Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?


Question: Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?


Question: Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017?


Question: A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?


Question: Will the US take military action in N. Korea?


Question: A major United States earthquake by 2023?


Question: Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?


Question: Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?


Question: Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?


Question: Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?


Question: Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?


Question: Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)


Question: Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?


Question: By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?


Question: Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?


Question: Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?


Question: Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17?


Question: Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?


Question: Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?


Question: How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in May 2018?


Question: Is Westworld located on an island?


Question: Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?


Question: By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?


Question: Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?


Question: Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?


Question: Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu?


Question: Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?


Question: Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?


Question: When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?


Question: Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?


Question: Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?


Question: Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power?


Question: Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?


Question: Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?


Question: Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?


Question: Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?


Question: Will the US midterms be hacked?


Question: Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?


Question: How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?


Question: Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?


Question: Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?


Question: Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?


Question: Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?


Question: Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018?


Question: Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?


Question: Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?


Question: Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?


Question: Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?


Question: Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?


Question: Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?


Question: How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?


Question: Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?


Question: When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?


Question: Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?


Question: Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?


Question: Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?


Question: Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?


Question: Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?


Question: Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?


Question: Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?


Question: Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018


Question: Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018


Question: When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?


Question: Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?


Question: Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?


Question: Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?


Question: Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?


Question: Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?


Question: Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?


Question: Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?


Question: Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?


Question: When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?


Question: Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?


Question: Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?


Question: Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?


Question: Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?


Question: If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?


Question: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?


Question: What will the average global atmospheric CO2 concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?


Question: Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?


Question: Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?


Question: Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?


Question: In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?


Question: By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?


Question: In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?


Question: When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?


Question: How impeached will Trump be?


Question: Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?


Question: Will our global atmospheric CO2 concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?


Question: Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?


Question: US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?


Question: Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?


Question: Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?


Question: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?


Question: Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?


Question: Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?


Question: Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?


Question: Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?


Question: Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?


Question: If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?


Question: How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]


Question: How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?


Question: How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?


Question: How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?


Question: Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?


Question: How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?


Question: How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?


Question: How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?


Question: Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?


Question: Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?


Question: How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?


Question: When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?


Question: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?


Question: When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?


Question: Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?


Question: How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?


Question: Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?


Question: How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?


Question: Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?


Question: Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?


Question: What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?


Question: What will Washington state's Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?


Question: Will the next US recession turn into a depression?


Question: Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?


Question: Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?


Question: What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?


Question: When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?


Question: Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?


Question: What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?


Question: Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?


Question: LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?


Question: LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?


Question: LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?


Question: Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?


Question: When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?


Question: Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?


Question: If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?


Question: Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?


Question: Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?


Question: If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?


Question: If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?


Question: Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?


Question: Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?


Question: Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?


Question: Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?


Question: Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?


Question: Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?


Question: When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?


Question: [Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?


Question: Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?


Question: Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?


Question: Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?


Question: Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?


Question: When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?


Question: What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?


Question: Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?


Question: If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?


Question: Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?


Question: Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?


Question: Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?


Question: When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?


Question: Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering  Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?


Question: Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?


Question: Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?


Question: By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?


Question: On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?


Question: Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?


Question: Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?


Question: Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?


Question: Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?


Question: Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?


Question: What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)


Question: Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?


Question: Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?


Question: Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?


Question: Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?


Question: When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?


Question: Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?


Question: What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?


Question: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?


Question: Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?


Question: How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?


Question: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?


Question: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?


Question: Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?


Question: What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?


Question: What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?


Question: What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?


Question: How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?


Question: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?


Question: What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?


Question: Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?


Question: Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?


Question: Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?


Question: Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?


Question: When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?


Question: Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?


Question: Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?


Question: What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?


Question: When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?


Question: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?


Question: Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?


Question: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?


Question: [short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?


Question: What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?


Question: Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?


Question: When will the UK hold its next general election?


Question: Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?


Question: Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?


Question: Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?


Question: Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?


Question: What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?


Question: Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?


Question: If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?


Question: On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?


Question: Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?


Question: Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?


Question: Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?


Question: Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?


Question: Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?


Question: Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?


Question: Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?


Question: In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?


Question: Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?


Question: Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?


Question: What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?


Question: Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?


Question: Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?


Question: Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?


Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?


Question: What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?


Question: Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?


Question: Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?


Question: Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?


Question: Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?


Question: Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?


Question: Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?


Question: When will the Taliban take Kabul?


Question: Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?


Question: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?


Question: Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?


Question: Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?


Question: By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?


Question: Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?


Question: By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?


Question: Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?


Question: Will implementation of measures more severe than those in "Plan B" be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?


Question: Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?


Question: When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?


Question: By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?


Question: By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?


Question: Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?


Question: What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?


Question: When will the EU pass the AI Act?


Question: Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?


Question: Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?


Question: Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?


Question: Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?


Question: What will US inflation be in 2022?


Question: What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?


Question: Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?


Question: Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?


Question: By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?


Question: How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?


Question: Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?


Question: Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?


Question: When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?


Question: Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?


Question: Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?


Question: Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?


Question: By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?


Question: Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?


Question: [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?


Question: Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?


Question: Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?


Question: What will China's GDP be in 2023?


Question: Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?


Question: Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?


Question: Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?


Question: Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?


Question: Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?


Question: Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?


Question: What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?


Question: Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?


Question: Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?


Question: Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?


Question: Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?


Question: Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?


Question: Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?


Question: Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?


Question: Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?


Question: What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?


Question: Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?


Question: Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?


Question: Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?


Question: Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?


Question: Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?


Question: Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?


Question: How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?


Question: Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?


Question: Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?


Question: Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?


Question: [Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?


Question: How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?


Question: How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?


Question: Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?


Question: How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?


Question: Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?


Question: Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?


Question: Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?


Question: Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?


Question: What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?


Question: Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?


Question: If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?


Question: Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?


Question: If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?


Question: Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?


Question: Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?


Question: Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?


Question: Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?


Question: Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?


Question: Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?


Question: Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?


Question: Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?


Question: How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?


Question: Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?


Question: Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?


Question: When will China end Zero-COVID?


Question: Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?


Question: Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?


Question: Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?


Question: In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?


Question: In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?


Question: Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?


Question: Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?


Question: In 2023, will Tether de-peg?


Question: Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?


Question: In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?


Question: Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?


Question: In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?


Question: In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?


Question: In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?


Question: Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?


Question: Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?


Question: Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?


Question: Will Tether collapse before 2025?


Question: [Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?


Question: Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?


Question: What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?


Question: Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?


Question: Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?


Question: Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?


Question: Will former president Jair Bolsonaro be extradited back to Brazil before leaving the US?


Question: Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?


Question: How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?


Question: Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?


Question: Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?


Question: Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?


Question: Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?


Question: Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?


Question: Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?


Question: When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?


Question: Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?


Question: Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?


Question: Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?


Question: Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?


Question: Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?


Question: Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?


Question: Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?


Question: Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?


Question: Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?


Question: Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?


Question: Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?


Question: Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?


Question: When will Sergei Shoigu cease to hold the office of Minister of Defense of Russia?


Question: When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?


Question: Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?


Question: Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?


Question: Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?


Question: Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?


Question: Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?


Question: Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?


Question: Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?


Question: Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?


Question: Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?


Question: Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?


Question: Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?


Question: Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?


Question: Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?


Question: Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?


Question: Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?


Question: Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?


Question: Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?


Question: Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?


Question: Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?


Question: What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections' runoff?


Question: Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?


Question: Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?


Question: What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?


Question: Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?


Question: Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?


Question: Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?


Question: Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?


Question: Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?


Question: Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?


Question: Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?


Question: Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?


Question: Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?


Question: Will Sam Altman leave  OpenAI (again) before 2025?


Question: Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?


Question: Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?


Question: Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?


Question: Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?


Question: Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?


Question: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?


Question: In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?


Question: Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?


Question: Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?


Question: Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?


Question: Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?


Question: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?


Question: Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?


Question: Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?


Question: Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?


Question: Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?


Question: Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?


Question: Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?


Question: Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?


Question: What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?


Question: For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?


Question: Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?


Question: Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?


Question: Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?


Question: Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?


Question: What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?


Question: Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?


Question: Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?


Question: What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024?


Question: Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?


Question: Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?


Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?


Question: Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?


Question: Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?


Question: What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in April 2024?


Question: Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?


Question: What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on May 15, 2024?


Question: As of May 21, 2024, how many tech employees will have been laid off in 2024, according to layoffs.fyi?


Question: What will be the winning time in the 2024 Kentucky Derby?


Question: Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?


Question: What will be the average daily count of adult Chinook salmon observed at the Bonneville Dam for the seven-day period ending May 7th, 2024?


Question: Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?


Question: What will be Apple's earnings per share for the quarter ending March 2024?


Question: Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?


Question: Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling in the Trump immunity case before May 20, 2024?


Question: Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?


Question: Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?


Question: Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?


Question: Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?


Question: Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?


Question: Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?


Question: What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?


Question: Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?


Question: Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?


Question: Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?


Question: Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?


Question: Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?


Question: Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?


Question: Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?


Question: Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?


Question: Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?