Question: Will we confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852?


Question: The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?


Question: Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?


Question: Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time?


Question: By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?


Question: Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?


Question: Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?


Question: Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?


Question: By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?


Question: Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?


Question: Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?


Question: Will EVE Online die by 2020?


Question: Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?


Question: Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016?


Question: Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?


Question: Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?


Question: Will a full prototype car be unveiled at the Tesla Model 3 event on March 31?


Question: Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms?


Question: Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?


Question: Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?


Question: Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?


Question: Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?


Question: A medical pathway to complete painlessness?


Question: A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic


Question: To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?


Question: To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?


Question: To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers?  Or something else?


Question: Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?


Question: Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico?


Question: Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?


Question: Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016?


Question: Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?


Question: Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017?


Question: Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017?


Question: Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?


Question: Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?


Question: Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?


Question: Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?


Question: Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?


Question: Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?


Question: Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?


Question: Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?


Question: Will the California Drought end in 2017?


Question: Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?


Question: Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?


Question: Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016?


Question: Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017.


Question: Are we in a simulated reality? Part I


Question: Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?


Question: Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?


Question: Airships by 2019?


Question: Will the banana plague reach Latin America?


Question: Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?


Question: Clinical trials of a "universal" snakebite antidote?


Question: Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?


Question: Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map?


Question: SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September?


Question: A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017?


Question: 1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?


Question: 20 more languages extinct by 2021?


Question: Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race?


Question: Will Obama pardon Snowden?


Question: 2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?


Question: Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?


Question: Will  a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?


Question: Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?


Question: Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon?


Question: Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?


Question: Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?


Question: Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017?


Question: Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?


Question: A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?


Question: Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?


Question: Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?


Question: When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?


Question: When will programs write programs for us?


Question: Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market?


Question: When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?


Question: When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?


Question: How much Wall will, in the end, be built?


Question: Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?


Question: Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?


Question: Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?


Question: Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?


Question: Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties?


Question: How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?


Question: When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?


Question: Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?


Question: Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?


Question: Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?


Question: Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?


Question: Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?


Question: First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?


Question: Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?


Question: Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?


Question: Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller?


Question: When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?


Question: How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?


Question: Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?


Question: Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?


Question: Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?


Question: How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?


Question: A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?


Question: Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017?


Question: Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017?


Question: Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion?


Question: Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?


Question: Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?


Question: Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?


Question: Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?


Question: Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?


Question: Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?


Question: Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?


Question: Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?


Question: Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?


Question: Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?


Question: Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?


Question: A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?


Question: Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?


Question: Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?


Question: Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?


Question: Attempted crewed  SpaceX flight in 2018?


Question: Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?


Question: Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again?


Question: Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?


Question: Will quantum computing "supremacy" be achieved by 2025?


Question: Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?


Question: Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?


Question: Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?


Question: Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?


Question: Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?


Question: How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?


Question: Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?


Question: Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?


Question: Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?


Question: Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?


Question: How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?


Question: Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018?


Question: How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in May 2018?


Question: Will May Day protests turn violent?


Question: Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?


Question: Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?


Question: Model 3 spot production rate at end of 2018?


Question: Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?


Question: Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?


Question: Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?


Question: Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?


Question: Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?


Question: Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?


Question: Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?


Question: Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?


Question: Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end?


Question: Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018?


Question: Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?


Question: Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?


Question: Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?


Question: Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?


Question: Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?


Question: What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?


Question: Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out?


Question: Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?


Question: Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?


Question: When will the Apple car be unveiled?


Question: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?


Question: Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?


Question: Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big  company?


Question: Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?


Question: Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?


Question: Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?


Question: Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?


Question: Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes?


Question: Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?


Question: Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics?


Question: Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018?


Question: Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?


Question: Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit?


Question: Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?


Question: Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?


Question: Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?


Question: Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?


Question: Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?


Question: Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?


Question: Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views?


Question: Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?


Question: Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?


Question: Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet?


Question: Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?


Question: Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)?


Question: Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?


Question: Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?


Question: Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?


Question: Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?


Question: Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?


Question: Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018?


Question: Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?


Question: How much will President Trump govern by decree?


Question: Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?


Question: Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year?


Question: Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis?


Question: Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?


Question: Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?


Question: Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?


Question: Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?


Question: Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?


Question: How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?


Question: Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?


Question: Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?


Question: Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?


Question: Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?


Question: Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?


Question: Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?


Question: Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?


Question: Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?


Question: Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?


Question: Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?


Question: How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?


Question: What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?


Question: Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?


Question: Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?


Question: Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?


Question: If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?


Question: Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?


Question: If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?


Question: Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?


Question: Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?


Question: Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?


Question: Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?


Question: Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?


Question: When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?


Question: First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?


Question: Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?


Question: Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?


Question: Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?


Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?


Question: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?


Question: Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?


Question: Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?


Question: Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?


Question: Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?


Question: What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?


Question: Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?


Question: Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?


Question: Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?


Question: Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?


Question: When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?


Question: Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?


Question: Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?


Question: Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?


Question: Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?


Question: Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?


Question: Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?


Question: Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?


Question: Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline


Question: Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?


Question: Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019


Question: When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?


Question: Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?


Question: Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?


Question: Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?


Question: Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?


Question: Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?


Question: Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?


Question: How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?


Question: Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?


Question: Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?


Question: Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?


Question: Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?


Question: Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?


Question: Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?


Question: Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?


Question: Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?


Question: Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?


Question: Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?


Question: Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?


Question: Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?


Question: Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?


Question: British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?


Question: Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?


Question: When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?


Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?


Question: When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?


Question: When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?


Question: Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25


Question: Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?


Question: What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?


Question: Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?


Question: Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?


Question: Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?


Question: When will at least 20 US states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?


Question: Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?


Question: Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?


Question: Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?


Question: Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?


Question: Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?


Question: By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?


Question: How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?


Question: Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?


Question: Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?


Question: When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?


Question: In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?


Question: By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?


Question: In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?


Question: In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?


Question: Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?


Question: Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?


Question: When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?


Question: Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?


Question: Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia?


Question: Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?


Question: PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products


Question: Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?


Question: Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?


Question: PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?


Question: Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?


Question: Will the S&P 500 Index  end 2020 higher?


Question: Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?


Question: Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?


Question: What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?


Question: Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?


Question: Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?


Question: In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?


Question: Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?


Question: Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?


Question: Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?


Question: Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?


Question: Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?


Question: Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?


Question: Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?


Question: Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?


Question: [closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?


Question: How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?


Question: Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?


Question: Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?


Question: How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?


Question: How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?


Question: Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?


Question: Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?


Question: When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?


Question: Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?


Question: Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?


Question: Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?


Question: Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?


Question: Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?


Question: Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?


Question: Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?


Question: How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?


Question: Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?


Question: Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?


Question: Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?


Question: Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?


Question: Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?


Question: Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?


Question: Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?


Question: How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?


Question: What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?


Question: Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?


Question: How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?


Question: Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?


Question: If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?


Question: Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?


Question: How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?


Question: Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?


Question: How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?


Question: Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?


Question: Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?


Question: Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?


Question: What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?


Question: Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?


Question: How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?


Question: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?


Question: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?


Question: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?


Question: Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?


Question: Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?


Question: Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?


Question: What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?


Question: Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?


Question: Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?


Question: What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?


Question: What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?


Question: What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?


Question: Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?


Question: How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?


Question: How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]


Question: How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?


Question: Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?


Question: Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?


Question: Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?


Question: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?


Question: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?


Question: When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?


Question: How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?


Question: How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred  worldwide, before 2021?


Question: Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?


Question: Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?


Question: Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?


Question: What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?


Question: Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?


Question: Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?


Question: Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?


Question: Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?


Question: What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?


Question: What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?


Question: What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?


Question: Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?


Question: What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?


Question: When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?


Question: What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?


Question: What will inflation be in the US in 2021?


Question: Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?


Question: What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?


Question: How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?


Question: Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?


Question: Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?


Question: When will Disneyland reopen?


Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?


Question: What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?


Question: LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?


Question: LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?


Question: Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?


Question: How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?


Question: LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?


Question: LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?


Question: LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?


Question: Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?


Question: How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?


Question: LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?


Question: LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?


Question: LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?


Question: LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?


Question: LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?


Question: What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?


Question: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?


Question: Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?


Question: Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?


Question: Will Israel annex  the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by  the end of 2020?


Question: When will be the next "Great Power" war?


Question: Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?


Question: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?


Question: Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?


Question: Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?


Question: Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?


Question: Will 2020's UK Christmas #1 be a joke?


Question: Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?


Question: How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?


Question: How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?


Question: Will global oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?


Question: Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?


Question: What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?


Question: When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?


Question: What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?


Question: Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?


Question: Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?


Question: Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?


Question: When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?


Question: What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?


Question: Will Stefan Molyneux receive a  long-term Twitter ban before 2021?


Question: Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?


Question: Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?


Question: Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?


Question: Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?


Question: Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?


Question: If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?


Question: Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?


Question: Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?


Question: Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?


Question: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?


Question: If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?


Question: What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?


Question: What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?


Question: In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?


Question: Will the "unknown pneumonia" outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?


Question: Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?


Question: As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?


Question: Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?


Question: When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?


Question: Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?


Question: Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?


Question: [Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?


Question: [Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?


Question: Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?


Question: Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?


Question: How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?


Question: When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?


Question: Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?


Question: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?


Question: Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?


Question: Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?


Question: What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?


Question: Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?


Question: Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?


Question: Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?


Question: Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?


Question: Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?


Question: If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?


Question: Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?


Question: When will the US-Canada border reopen?


Question: Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?


Question: Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?


Question: When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?


Question: If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?


Question: Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?


Question: What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?


Question: When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?


Question: When will the second US presidential debate take place?


Question: Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?


Question: Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?


Question: Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?


Question: By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?


Question: Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?


Question: Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?


Question: On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?


Question: Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?


Question: Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?


Question: Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?


Question: Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?


Question: Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?


Question: Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?


Question: When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?


Question: Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?


Question: Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?


Question: Will a major network call the election prematurely?


Question: Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?


Question: Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?


Question: Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?


Question: Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?


Question: Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?


Question: Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?


Question: In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]


Question: Will Trump freely leave the White House?


Question: What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?


Question: What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?


Question: Will any states flip from the current projected winner?


Question: Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?


Question: Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?


Question: Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?


Question: Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?


Question: When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?


Question: Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?


Question: Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?


Question: What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?


Question: Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?


Question: By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?


Question: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?


Question: Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?


Question: Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?


Question: When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?


Question: What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?


Question: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?


Question: When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?


Question: Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?


Question: Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?


Question: Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in person?


Question: Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?


Question: On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?


Question: What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?


Question: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?


Question: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?


Question: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?


Question: When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?


Question: Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?


Question: Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?


Question: When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?


Question: Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?


Question: Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?


Question: What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?


Question: Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?


Question: What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?


Question: What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?


Question: What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?


Question: What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?


Question: What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?


Question: What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?


Question: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?


Question: What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?


Question: How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?


Question: What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?


Question: Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?


Question: Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?


Question: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?


Question: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?


Question: Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?


Question: Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?


Question: How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?


Question: Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?


Question: When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?


Question: Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?


Question: Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?


Question: Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?


Question: What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?


Question: [Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before  the 2021/01/20 inauguration?


Question: Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?


Question: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?


Question: Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?


Question: Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?


Question: Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?


Question: How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?


Question: When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?


Question: Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?


Question: Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?


Question: How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?


Question: Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?


Question: Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?


Question: Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?


Question: Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?


Question: Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?


Question: How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?


Question: Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?


Question: Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?


Question: Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?


Question: [short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?


Question: Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?


Question: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?


Question: Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?


Question: Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?


Question: When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?


Question: What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?


Question: Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?


Question: Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?


Question: Will Bill Gates fund a brain-computer interface company before 2031?


Question: Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?


Question: In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?


Question: When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?


Question: Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?


Question: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?


Question: [short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?


Question: When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?


Question: Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?


Question: Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?


Question: Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?


Question: Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?


Question: Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?


Question: Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?


Question: Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?


Question: By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?


Question: Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?


Question: Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?


Question: What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?


Question: On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?


Question: Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?


Question: Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?


Question: What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?


Question: When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?


Question: [Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?


Question: When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?


Question: Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?


Question: Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?


Question: What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?


Question: Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?


Question: Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?


Question: What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?


Question: On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?


Question: Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?


Question: What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?


Question: Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?


Question: Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?


Question: Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?


Question: Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?


Question: Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?


Question: Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?


Question: Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?


Question: Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?


Question: Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?


Question: What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?


Question: Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?


Question: Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?


Question: Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?


Question: When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?


Question: Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?


Question: Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?


Question: Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?


Question: Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?


Question: Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?


Question: Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?


Question: Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?


Question: Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?


Question: Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?


Question: Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?


Question: When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?


Question: Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?


Question: Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?


Question: When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?


Question: When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?


Question: How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?


Question: Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?


Question: What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?


Question: Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?


Question: How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?


Question: Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?


Question: Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?


Question: Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?


Question: Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?


Question: Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?


Question: Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?


Question: Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?


Question: Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?


Question: If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?


Question: Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?


Question: Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?


Question: Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?


Question: Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?


Question: Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?


Question: Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?


Question: Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?


Question: Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?


Question: Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?


Question: When will the James Webb telescope be launched?


Question: Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?


Question: What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?


Question: How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?


Question: What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?


Question: Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?


Question: Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?


Question: Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?


Question: How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?


Question: Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?


Question: Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?


Question: Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?


Question: Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?


Question: When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?


Question: Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?


Question: Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?


Question: Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?


Question: Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?


Question: Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?


Question: Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?


Question: What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?


Question: When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?


Question: Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?


Question: Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?


Question: In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?


Question: What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?


Question: By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?


Question: Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?


Question: When will Ethereum abandon proof of work?


Question: Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?


Question: Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?


Question: Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?


Question: Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?


Question: Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?


Question: Will Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030?


Question: Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?


Question: Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?


Question: Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?


Question: How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?


Question: Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?


Question: Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?


Question: Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?


Question: Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?


Question: Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?


Question: How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?


Question: How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?


Question: What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?


Question: Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?


Question: Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?


Question: Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?


Question: Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?


Question: Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?


Question: Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?


Question: [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?


Question: By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?


Question: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?


Question: How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?


Question: Will any state leave NATO before 2024?


Question: By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?


Question: Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?


Question: Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?


Question: By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?


Question: Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?


Question: By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?


Question: What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?


Question: Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?


Question: Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?


Question: Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?


Question: Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?


Question: Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?


Question: When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?


Question: [Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?


Question: Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?


Question: Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?


Question: What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?


Question: Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?


Question: [Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?


Question: Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms,  be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?


Question: Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?


Question: Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?


Question: Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?


Question: Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?


Question: What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?


Question: Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?


Question: How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?


Question: How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?


Question: Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?


Question: Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?


Question: Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?


Question: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?


Question: What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?


Question: What will the price of oil be for December 2022?


Question: How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?


Question: How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?


Question: Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?


Question: Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?


Question: Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?


Question: Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?


Question: Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?


Question: Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?


Question: Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?


Question: Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?


Question: Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?


Question: What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?


Question: How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?


Question: Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?


Question: Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?


Question: Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?


Question: Will Tether collapse before 2023?


Question: Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?


Question: Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?


Question: Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?


Question: Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?


Question: Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?


Question: Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?


Question: Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?


Question: Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?


Question: Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?


Question: Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?


Question: [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?


Question: Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?


Question: How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?


Question: Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?


Question: Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?


Question: Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?


Question: When will the S&P 500 next surpass its record high closing price set on Jan 3 2022?


Question: When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?


Question: What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?


Question: Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?


Question: Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?


Question: Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?


Question: Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?


Question: Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?


Question: Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?


Question: Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?


Question: Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?


Question: If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?


Question: Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?


Question: Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?


Question: If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?


Question: Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?


Question: Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?


Question: If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?


Question: What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?


Question: Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?


Question: Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?


Question: What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?


Question: What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?


Question: Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?


Question: How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?


Question: Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?


Question: If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?


Question: Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?


Question: Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?


Question: Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?


Question: How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?


Question: Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?


Question: Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?


Question: What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?


Question: What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?


Question: Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?


Question: Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?


Question: Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?


Question: Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?


Question: Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?


Question: Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?


Question: Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?


Question: Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?


Question: Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?


Question: Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?


Question: Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?


Question: Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?


Question: Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?


Question: Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?


Question: Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?


Question: How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?


Question: Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?


Question: How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?


Question: Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?


Question: Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?


Question: Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?


Question: Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?


Question: By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?


Question: Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Russia control  Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?


Question: What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?


Question: Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?


Question: Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?


Question: Will Finland join NATO before 2024?


Question: Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will the US "Rewards for Justice" program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?


Question: Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?


Question: Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO's Article 5 in 2022?


Question: Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?


Question: Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?


Question: Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans' personal information by June 30, 2022?


Question: Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?


Question: Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?


Question: Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?


Question: Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?


Question: What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?


Question: How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?


Question: Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?


Question: Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?


Question: How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?


Question: Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?


Question: Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?


Question: Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?


Question: How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?


Question: Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?


Question: Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?


Question: Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?


Question: Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?


Question: Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?


Question: Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?


Question: Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?


Question: Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?


Question: By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?


Question: Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?


Question: What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?


Question: Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?


Question: Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?


Question: Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?


Question: Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?


Question: When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?


Question: Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?


Question: Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?


Question: Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?


Question: Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?


Question: Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?


Question: How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?


Question: What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?


Question: Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?


Question: Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?


Question: Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?


Question: Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?


Question: Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?


Question: Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?


Question: Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?


Question: Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?


Question: How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?


Question: When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?


Question: Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?


Question: Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?


Question: Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?


Question: How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?


Question: Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?


Question: Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?


Question: Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?


Question: Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?


Question: Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?


Question: Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?


Question: Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?


Question: Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?


Question: Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?


Question: What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?


Question: Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?


Question: When will China end Covid Zero?


Question: Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?


Question: Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?


Question: Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?


Question: Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?


Question: Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?


Question: Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?


Question: When will Liz Truss no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?


Question: Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?


Question: Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?


Question: Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?


Question: Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?


Question: Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?


Question: Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?


Question: Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?


Question: Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?


Question: Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?


Question: Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?


Question: When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?


Question: Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?


Question: Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?


Question: Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?


Question: Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?


Question: Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?


Question: Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?


Question: [Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?


Question: Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?


Question: What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?


Question: When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?


Question: Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?


Question: In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?


Question: In 2023 will any new country join NATO?


Question: In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?


Question: In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?


Question: In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?


Question: In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?


Question: Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?


Question: Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?


Question: In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?


Question: When will Elon Musk be succeeded as CEO of Twitter?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?


Question: In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?


Question: In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?


Question: Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?


Question: Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?


Question: Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?


Question: In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?


Question: Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?


Question: Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?


Question: In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?


Question: In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander's bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen's satisfaction?


Question: In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?


Question: In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?


Question: On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?


Question: In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?


Question: Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?


Question: Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?


Question: When will GPT-4 be announced?


Question: Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?


Question: Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?


Question: Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?


Question: Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?


Question: Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?


Question: Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?


Question: Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?


Question: Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?


Question: Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?


Question: Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?


Question: Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?


Question: Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?


Question: Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?


Question: When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?


Question: What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?


Question: In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?


Question: Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?


Question: Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?


Question: Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?


Question: Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?


Question: Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?


Question: Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?


Question: Will Alphabet's (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?


Question: Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?


Question: Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?


Question: Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?


Question: Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?


Question: How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?


Question: Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?


Question: Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?


Question: Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?