{"id": "55134541", "question": "Will we confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-03-01", "created_time": "2015-10-26", "confidence": 0.7133}
{"id": "2864f8e1", "question": "The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-06-16", "created_time": "2015-10-26", "confidence": 0.6353}
{"id": "02fe504e", "question": "Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-11-18", "created_time": "2015-11-02", "confidence": 0.6535}
{"id": "8bceb4cf", "question": "Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-06-02", "created_time": "2015-11-05", "confidence": 0.6746}
{"id": "cabe1260", "question": "By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-07-10", "created_time": "2015-11-07", "confidence": 0.5261}
{"id": "e10fa36b", "question": "Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-06-07", "created_time": "2015-11-08", "confidence": 0.4209}
{"id": "c5d41b36", "question": "Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-11-09", "created_time": "2015-11-12", "confidence": 0.1754}
{"id": "ed5f6412", "question": "Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-03-21", "created_time": "2015-12-19", "confidence": 0.3621}
{"id": "349510c6", "question": "By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-14", "created_time": "2015-12-19", "confidence": 0.4122}
{"id": "f998ba3c", "question": "Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2015-12-22", "confidence": 0.6146}
{"id": "c03f4b71", "question": "Will radical new \"low-energy nuclear reaction\" technologies prove effective before 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-06-28", "created_time": "2016-01-05", "confidence": 0.7027}
{"id": "ffd21eb0", "question": "Will EVE Online die by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2016-01-07", "confidence": 0.6477}
{"id": "5240b963", "question": "Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-06-28", "created_time": "2016-01-11", "confidence": 0.4712}
{"id": "6d5658e1", "question": "Will \"Planet Nine\" be discovered in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-01", "created_time": "2016-01-19", "confidence": 0.5374}
{"id": "90eea550", "question": "Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-04-01", "created_time": "2016-01-27", "confidence": 0.5804}
{"id": "dce13dce", "question": "Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2017-01-18", "created_time": "2016-02-04", "confidence": 0.6676}
{"id": "7d8b52a7", "question": "Will a full prototype car be unveiled at the Tesla Model 3 event on March 31?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-04-01", "created_time": "2016-03-03", "confidence": 0.6391}
{"id": "130ebe37", "question": "Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2017-05-31", "created_time": "2016-03-08", "confidence": 0.4704}
{"id": "c5a6e56f", "question": "Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-05", "created_time": "2016-03-10", "confidence": 0.5483}
{"id": "e8ec8a46", "question": "Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2016-03-13", "confidence": 0.703}
{"id": "2564f603", "question": "Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-02", "created_time": "2016-03-15", "confidence": 0.463}
{"id": "3eb24ce3", "question": "Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-07-31", "created_time": "2016-03-25", "confidence": 0.6019}
{"id": "72ec2c73", "question": "A medical pathway to complete painlessness?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-12", "created_time": "2016-03-25", "confidence": 0.5582}
{"id": "ea127629", "question": "A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-19", "created_time": "2016-04-06", "confidence": 0.534}
{"id": "d8b39ff4", "question": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-17", "created_time": "2016-04-06", "confidence": 0.5119}
{"id": "82d67c29", "question": "To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2016-04-09", "confidence": 0.4921}
{"id": "1a029dfa", "question": "To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers?  Or something else?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-05", "created_time": "2016-04-09", "confidence": 0.4889}
{"id": "25498202", "question": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-07-27", "created_time": "2016-04-13", "confidence": 0.6939}
{"id": "d33a8c8a", "question": "Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-01", "created_time": "2016-04-22", "confidence": 0.5171}
{"id": "b794c8ca", "question": "Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-02-08", "created_time": "2016-04-27", "confidence": 0.5936}
{"id": "200e6706", "question": "Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-11-09", "created_time": "2016-05-03", "confidence": 0.669}
{"id": "b6e3797e", "question": "Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2016-05-17", "confidence": 0.4495}
{"id": "99db93db", "question": "Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-01", "created_time": "2016-05-17", "confidence": 0.6008}
{"id": "18f89a12", "question": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-20", "created_time": "2016-05-27", "confidence": 0.4797}
{"id": "1a984794", "question": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2016-05-31", "confidence": 0.6137}
{"id": "cdb7ffe3", "question": "Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2016-06-06", "confidence": 0.5066}
{"id": "46a7207d", "question": "Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-01", "created_time": "2016-06-06", "confidence": 0.5624}
{"id": "1cc2d3b8", "question": "Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2016-06-08", "confidence": 0.6045}
{"id": "86f8d607", "question": "Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-11", "created_time": "2016-06-09", "confidence": 0.5603}
{"id": "d75a4a0e", "question": "Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-27", "created_time": "2016-06-09", "confidence": 0.6448}
{"id": "3a0f41b3", "question": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2016-06-10", "confidence": 0.4382}
{"id": "ff9f6664", "question": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2016-06-10", "confidence": 0.6488}
{"id": "fa3604fb", "question": "Will the California Drought end in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2017-05-01", "created_time": "2016-06-26", "confidence": 0.1945}
{"id": "56d493ec", "question": "Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-12-30", "created_time": "2016-06-29", "confidence": 0.4249}
{"id": "1569d10d", "question": "Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-02-04", "created_time": "2016-07-04", "confidence": 0.4981}
{"id": "596fd943", "question": "Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-01", "created_time": "2016-07-07", "confidence": 0.3564}
{"id": "fb19286b", "question": "Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017.", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2016-07-08", "confidence": 0.6611}
{"id": "c1feae4f", "question": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part I", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-05", "created_time": "2016-07-08", "confidence": 0.6765}
{"id": "504df1d7", "question": "Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-02-16", "created_time": "2016-07-14", "confidence": 0.4142}
{"id": "352e556f", "question": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-31", "created_time": "2016-07-14", "confidence": 0.3011}
{"id": "a06897fd", "question": "Airships by 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2016-07-16", "confidence": 0.5351}
{"id": "45691f77", "question": "Will the banana plague reach Latin America?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2016-07-19", "confidence": 0.26}
{"id": "4b18584d", "question": "Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-11", "created_time": "2016-07-21", "confidence": 0.4138}
{"id": "a575704e", "question": "Clinical trials of a \"universal\" snakebite antidote?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-26", "created_time": "2016-07-23", "confidence": 0.4902}
{"id": "4b6e894d", "question": "Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-10-21", "created_time": "2016-07-23", "confidence": 0.2887}
{"id": "71f0f7c9", "question": "Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-11-09", "created_time": "2016-08-03", "confidence": 0.5836}
{"id": "73d853e7", "question": "SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-09-28", "created_time": "2016-08-05", "confidence": 0.524}
{"id": "809309d2", "question": "A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-03-30", "created_time": "2016-08-14", "confidence": 0.4763}
{"id": "883e6f0a", "question": "1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-15", "created_time": "2016-09-02", "confidence": 0.3406}
{"id": "59873548", "question": "20 more languages extinct by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-08-08", "created_time": "2016-09-02", "confidence": 0.4501}
{"id": "8336a2db", "question": "Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-10-20", "created_time": "2016-09-14", "confidence": 0.7005}
{"id": "eef8388c", "question": "Will Obama pardon Snowden?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-20", "created_time": "2016-09-14", "confidence": 0.7096}
{"id": "dea1cd55", "question": "2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-11-10", "created_time": "2016-09-20", "confidence": 0.614}
{"id": "891fc4a7", "question": "Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-06-25", "created_time": "2016-09-29", "confidence": 0.7046}
{"id": "1b3e57c4", "question": "Will  a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-26", "created_time": "2016-10-07", "confidence": 0.4793}
{"id": "4794357e", "question": "Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2016-10-10", "confidence": 0.6253}
{"id": "bf67bac7", "question": "Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-27", "created_time": "2016-10-22", "confidence": 0.6488}
{"id": "a6ddb2a0", "question": "Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2016-11-14", "confidence": 0.6877}
{"id": "e49e6832", "question": "Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-09-19", "created_time": "2016-11-30", "confidence": 0.3963}
{"id": "7db15cb2", "question": "Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-12-21", "created_time": "2016-11-30", "confidence": 0.6888}
{"id": "c16ee711", "question": "Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-04-04", "created_time": "2016-11-30", "confidence": 0.6489}
{"id": "9f755378", "question": "A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-19", "created_time": "2016-12-09", "confidence": 0.629}
{"id": "7abd424b", "question": "Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2016-12-13", "confidence": 0.6851}
{"id": "62cf230f", "question": "Will Amazon award a $1M \"Alexa Prize\" for a chatbot in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2016-12-13", "confidence": 0.6133}
{"id": "c948a01d", "question": "When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2019-01-24", "resolution_time": "2019-02-05", "created_time": "2016-12-21", "confidence": 0.5561}
{"id": "69983352", "question": "When will programs write programs for us?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-07-07", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2016-12-21", "confidence": 0.5234}
{"id": "c5c8f3c3", "question": "Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2016-12-28", "confidence": 0.5995}
{"id": "cb5caac5", "question": "When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-01", "resolution_time": "2021-02-01", "created_time": "2017-01-09", "confidence": 0.5793}
{"id": "e33323c4", "question": "When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-05-30", "resolution_time": "2020-05-30", "created_time": "2017-01-27", "confidence": 0.5822}
{"id": "510206d4", "question": "How much Wall will, in the end, be built?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "727", "resolution_time": "2021-09-16", "created_time": "2017-02-05", "confidence": 0.3956}
{"id": "0bdbc413", "question": "Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-20", "created_time": "2017-02-08", "confidence": 0.6173}
{"id": "ad71615f", "question": "Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-04", "created_time": "2017-02-11", "confidence": 0.6921}
{"id": "eec37b24", "question": "Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-21", "created_time": "2017-02-11", "confidence": 0.5854}
{"id": "4c8d69d1", "question": "Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2017-03-10", "confidence": 0.5033}
{"id": "69aa905d", "question": "Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2017-10-30", "created_time": "2017-03-22", "confidence": 0.4067}
{"id": "b9ce7bdd", "question": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "738", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2017-03-27", "confidence": 0.58}
{"id": "3ed56b5a", "question": "When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2018-12-01", "resolution_time": "2019-03-01", "created_time": "2017-03-30", "confidence": 0.5609}
{"id": "8d790477", "question": "Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-16", "created_time": "2017-04-27", "confidence": 0.6264}
{"id": "864be404", "question": "Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-02-01", "created_time": "2017-05-17", "confidence": 0.6014}
{"id": "f01aa117", "question": "Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2017-05-29", "confidence": 0.527}
{"id": "9fb9b267", "question": "Will \"Rentberry\" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2017-06-09", "confidence": 0.5246}
{"id": "c311fbef", "question": "Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-29", "created_time": "2017-06-11", "confidence": 0.5948}
{"id": "72a2a622", "question": "First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-08", "created_time": "2017-06-28", "confidence": 0.5037}
{"id": "6578f0b3", "question": "Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-02-04", "created_time": "2017-07-20", "confidence": 0.4563}
{"id": "ac108092", "question": "Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-12", "created_time": "2017-07-20", "confidence": 0.3652}
{"id": "a56f4332", "question": "Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-05", "created_time": "2017-07-21", "confidence": 0.498}
{"id": "8c288fba", "question": "When will machine translation achieve a \"word accuracy score\" comparable to that of professional human translators?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2018-10-02", "resolution_time": "2018-10-22", "created_time": "2017-08-03", "confidence": 0.6067}
{"id": "bb7b450c", "question": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "221476000", "resolution_time": "2022-10-18", "created_time": "2017-08-04", "confidence": 0.5914}
{"id": "f4af1617", "question": "Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2017-08-09", "confidence": 0.6961}
{"id": "c7246593", "question": "Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-06-15", "created_time": "2017-08-11", "confidence": 0.28}
{"id": "2834a205", "question": "Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-06", "created_time": "2017-08-15", "confidence": 0.4741}
{"id": "a914e0b2", "question": "How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2018-09-05", "created_time": "2017-08-19", "confidence": 0.6692}
{"id": "d1866b37", "question": "A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-07-04", "created_time": "2017-08-27", "confidence": 0.2793}
{"id": "e596b7fa", "question": "Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-12-01", "created_time": "2017-08-31", "confidence": 0.689}
{"id": "48802f8d", "question": "Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2017-12-05", "created_time": "2017-08-31", "confidence": 0.423}
{"id": "dde22d99", "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-11-16", "created_time": "2017-08-31", "confidence": 0.3516}
{"id": "389bdccc", "question": "Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-01", "created_time": "2017-09-06", "confidence": 0.7011}
{"id": "1d1c0afc", "question": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2017-09-22", "confidence": 0.4383}
{"id": "53614b37", "question": "Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-21", "created_time": "2017-09-22", "confidence": 0.5292}
{"id": "46963cb2", "question": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-21", "created_time": "2017-10-04", "confidence": 0.6614}
{"id": "6da360cc", "question": "Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-04-17", "created_time": "2017-11-12", "confidence": 0.5908}
{"id": "f7b4c4db", "question": "Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-01", "created_time": "2017-11-12", "confidence": 0.4222}
{"id": "2bb978a2", "question": "Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-01-02", "created_time": "2017-11-16", "confidence": 0.5504}
{"id": "b15edf79", "question": "Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-01", "created_time": "2017-11-28", "confidence": 0.6153}
{"id": "7dd73883", "question": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-20", "created_time": "2017-12-26", "confidence": 0.6895}
{"id": "7dd2aafa", "question": "Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-26", "created_time": "2017-12-31", "confidence": 0.6094}
{"id": "20cb02f0", "question": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-07-01", "created_time": "2018-01-20", "confidence": 0.6533}
{"id": "1ca3f8a6", "question": "A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-03", "created_time": "2018-01-24", "confidence": 0.5615}
{"id": "c016399b", "question": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-07-05", "created_time": "2018-01-28", "confidence": 0.6203}
{"id": "fa9e39d7", "question": "Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-21", "created_time": "2018-02-01", "confidence": 0.6872}
{"id": "295f3bd5", "question": "Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-03", "created_time": "2018-02-07", "confidence": 0.5095}
{"id": "7e41a7e5", "question": "Attempted crewed  SpaceX flight in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-02-13", "confidence": 0.68}
{"id": "6953ac65", "question": "Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-02", "created_time": "2018-02-14", "confidence": 0.7191}
{"id": "a269eee3", "question": "Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-02-17", "confidence": 0.3859}
{"id": "2ed86ccc", "question": "Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-04", "created_time": "2018-02-24", "confidence": 0.639}
{"id": "a0b87f0b", "question": "Will quantum computing \"supremacy\" be achieved by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-05", "created_time": "2018-02-24", "confidence": 0.3467}
{"id": "34b4480c", "question": "Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-05-23", "created_time": "2018-02-24", "confidence": 0.6413}
{"id": "5dd51da2", "question": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2018-03-02", "confidence": 0.6409}
{"id": "628d2b3e", "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-11-28", "created_time": "2018-03-02", "confidence": 0.6098}
{"id": "c386de1b", "question": "Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-19", "created_time": "2018-03-03", "confidence": 0.5789}
{"id": "865ce9fd", "question": "Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-11-08", "created_time": "2018-03-05", "confidence": 0.6051}
{"id": "c56a6ee5", "question": "How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "45", "resolution_time": "2018-11-30", "created_time": "2018-03-05", "confidence": 0.5973}
{"id": "5330a3a5", "question": "Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2018-03-16", "confidence": 0.6812}
{"id": "35cecd5a", "question": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2018-03-16", "confidence": 0.6113}
{"id": "b0d6124e", "question": "Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-01", "created_time": "2018-03-19", "confidence": 0.701}
{"id": "929f9cbc", "question": "Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-19", "created_time": "2018-03-25", "confidence": 0.6133}
{"id": "e320412c", "question": "How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2018-08-29", "created_time": "2018-03-28", "confidence": 0.6824}
{"id": "2294c325", "question": "Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-05", "created_time": "2018-03-28", "confidence": 0.6752}
{"id": "ccc5f25f", "question": "How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in May 2018?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2018-06-02", "created_time": "2018-04-04", "confidence": 0.7938}
{"id": "1d8fb56b", "question": "Will May Day protests turn violent?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-05-02", "created_time": "2018-04-16", "confidence": 0.584}
{"id": "6ac69813", "question": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-04", "created_time": "2018-04-17", "confidence": 0.5814}
{"id": "5375825a", "question": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-12", "created_time": "2018-04-18", "confidence": 0.5162}
{"id": "9fe1a3bd", "question": "Model 3 spot production rate at end of 2018?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4611", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-04-28", "confidence": 0.4961}
{"id": "b3a6c197", "question": "Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2018-05-07", "confidence": 0.6859}
{"id": "620ea178", "question": "Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-07-18", "created_time": "2018-05-11", "confidence": 0.7064}
{"id": "230ef5c4", "question": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-05-23", "confidence": 0.5642}
{"id": "fd8b0df4", "question": "Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-02", "created_time": "2018-05-23", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "5f7ba1fd", "question": "Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-06-12", "created_time": "2018-05-23", "confidence": 0.5289}
{"id": "7beab91b", "question": "Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2018-05-24", "confidence": 0.5416}
{"id": "080d7cb6", "question": "Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-17", "created_time": "2018-05-25", "confidence": 0.5907}
{"id": "474a5141", "question": "Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-11-25", "created_time": "2018-05-25", "confidence": 0.5136}
{"id": "5be42b28", "question": "Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-10-15", "created_time": "2018-05-25", "confidence": 0.4151}
{"id": "952001ee", "question": "Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-20", "created_time": "2018-05-25", "confidence": 0.6115}
{"id": "3b21e046", "question": "Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-04", "created_time": "2018-05-30", "confidence": 0.7095}
{"id": "f62e023a", "question": "Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "75", "resolution_time": "2019-05-18", "created_time": "2018-06-02", "confidence": 0.5938}
{"id": "b586292b", "question": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-06-03", "confidence": 0.6834}
{"id": "416c1b86", "question": "Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2018-06-03", "confidence": 0.6191}
{"id": "ba039d8c", "question": "Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-18", "created_time": "2018-06-06", "confidence": 0.6994}
{"id": "20edb0bf", "question": "What will be the value of the (herein described) \"AI winter index\" at end of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2022-02-02", "created_time": "2018-06-14", "confidence": 0.5494}
{"id": "fb98e612", "question": "Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-06-16", "confidence": 0.6136}
{"id": "a20bc6ba", "question": "Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-30", "created_time": "2018-06-16", "confidence": 0.6469}
{"id": "79ed4141", "question": "Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-01", "created_time": "2018-06-17", "confidence": 0.6553}
{"id": "291dbd50", "question": "When will the Apple car be unveiled?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-06-18", "created_time": "2018-06-17", "confidence": 0.7261}
{"id": "296b2f2b", "question": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2018-06-20", "confidence": 0.444}
{"id": "e32b1ccb", "question": "Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-06-24", "confidence": 0.4259}
{"id": "1dfa7e7c", "question": "Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big  company?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-01-20", "created_time": "2018-06-27", "confidence": 0.54}
{"id": "c3d55fcf", "question": "Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-10-06", "created_time": "2018-06-28", "confidence": 0.6374}
{"id": "fbf801d4", "question": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-24", "created_time": "2018-06-28", "confidence": 0.4379}
{"id": "0191658a", "question": "Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-11-26", "created_time": "2018-06-30", "confidence": 0.4936}
{"id": "7c2f76b6", "question": "Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-08-06", "created_time": "2018-07-02", "confidence": 0.617}
{"id": "ebcd33b4", "question": "Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-03", "created_time": "2018-07-06", "confidence": 0.3654}
{"id": "16fa48d7", "question": "Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-24", "created_time": "2018-07-07", "confidence": 0.7246}
{"id": "17f02848", "question": "Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-02", "created_time": "2018-07-07", "confidence": 0.6335}
{"id": "bf1b3f9d", "question": "Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-10-01", "created_time": "2018-07-08", "confidence": 0.6708}
{"id": "f573716c", "question": "Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-09", "created_time": "2018-07-11", "confidence": 0.705}
{"id": "cfdd85c6", "question": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-07-31", "created_time": "2018-07-17", "confidence": 0.5788}
{"id": "15646440", "question": "Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-07", "created_time": "2018-07-17", "confidence": 0.5513}
{"id": "bfe916b5", "question": "Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-02-01", "created_time": "2018-07-24", "confidence": 0.657}
{"id": "fa5bec3c", "question": "Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-31", "created_time": "2018-07-27", "confidence": 0.6937}
{"id": "87df5d1e", "question": "Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-10-06", "created_time": "2018-07-30", "confidence": 0.6183}
{"id": "8edec5e4", "question": "Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-19", "created_time": "2018-07-30", "confidence": 0.6179}
{"id": "6cf81783", "question": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-25", "created_time": "2018-08-07", "confidence": 0.679}
{"id": "8dc0865f", "question": "Will a \"Deepfake\" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-09", "created_time": "2018-08-07", "confidence": 0.6529}
{"id": "cfb730c2", "question": "Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-29", "created_time": "2018-08-07", "confidence": 0.5886}
{"id": "534f0adb", "question": "Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2018-08-08", "confidence": 0.674}
{"id": "4b11aef2", "question": "Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-09-29", "created_time": "2018-08-10", "confidence": 0.3386}
{"id": "4e887d88", "question": "Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-01", "created_time": "2018-08-11", "confidence": 0.2383}
{"id": "80bd88da", "question": "Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-30", "created_time": "2018-08-17", "confidence": 0.6269}
{"id": "9a2d4207", "question": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-08", "created_time": "2018-08-21", "confidence": 0.4588}
{"id": "3cd5d00e", "question": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2018-08-22", "confidence": 0.4132}
{"id": "c39a7d54", "question": "Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-10-01", "created_time": "2018-08-31", "confidence": 0.6587}
{"id": "e949396c", "question": "Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-10-22", "created_time": "2018-09-02", "confidence": 0.5878}
{"id": "a9fd839d", "question": "Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-04-01", "created_time": "2018-09-05", "confidence": 0.7083}
{"id": "d79e2a7b", "question": "Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-11-06", "created_time": "2018-09-05", "confidence": 0.6318}
{"id": "c0aca193", "question": "Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2018-09-07", "confidence": 0.4223}
{"id": "ba9bc579", "question": "How much will President Trump govern by decree?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2021-02-02", "created_time": "2018-09-11", "confidence": 0.6477}
{"id": "d7ae867e", "question": "Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" surface before Election Day, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2018-09-16", "confidence": 0.664}
{"id": "8de0ff13", "question": "Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-09-16", "confidence": 0.6684}
{"id": "32433c9d", "question": "Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-10-15", "created_time": "2018-09-22", "confidence": 0.6055}
{"id": "4d3e2dd0", "question": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-09-28", "confidence": 0.6889}
{"id": "aeb90529", "question": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2018-10-02", "confidence": 0.6152}
{"id": "b8a18ec9", "question": "Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-11-08", "created_time": "2018-10-02", "confidence": 0.3439}
{"id": "dc2d07d2", "question": "Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-11-27", "created_time": "2018-10-14", "confidence": 0.6299}
{"id": "5f52d2f0", "question": "Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-01", "created_time": "2018-10-24", "confidence": 0.5182}
{"id": "8b1d213e", "question": "How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-01-13", "created_time": "2018-11-01", "confidence": 0.5959}
{"id": "62f0a2e8", "question": "Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2018-11-07", "confidence": 0.6694}
{"id": "ef51dad0", "question": "Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-16", "created_time": "2018-11-16", "confidence": 0.6268}
{"id": "d3496a4f", "question": "Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-11-17", "confidence": 0.652}
{"id": "28c46b0f", "question": "Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-29", "created_time": "2018-11-17", "confidence": 0.6495}
{"id": "f5359692", "question": "Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-04-06", "created_time": "2018-11-29", "confidence": 0.5882}
{"id": "315072f3", "question": "Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-10-14", "created_time": "2018-11-30", "confidence": 0.6281}
{"id": "d71a150b", "question": "Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-24", "created_time": "2018-12-03", "confidence": 0.4783}
{"id": "6905b3d6", "question": "Will a \"sex doll brothel\" open in the US before August 1st 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-08-05", "created_time": "2018-12-05", "confidence": 0.5365}
{"id": "ef32ec17", "question": "Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-29", "created_time": "2018-12-06", "confidence": 0.6517}
{"id": "5dd31dbb", "question": "Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-01", "created_time": "2018-12-06", "confidence": 0.7078}
{"id": "51a0d09d", "question": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2025-01-24", "created_time": "2018-12-07", "confidence": 0.7615}
{"id": "73189585", "question": "What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "7570", "resolution_time": "2019-12-01", "created_time": "2018-02-14", "confidence": 0.644}
{"id": "0de004d4", "question": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-24", "created_time": "2018-12-13", "confidence": 0.7129}
{"id": "aa816068", "question": "Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2018-12-13", "confidence": 0.7282}
{"id": "c87324db", "question": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-01", "created_time": "2018-12-20", "confidence": 0.6241}
{"id": "45a05f84", "question": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-11", "created_time": "2018-12-21", "confidence": 0.6973}
{"id": "b725297b", "question": "Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-04-05", "created_time": "2018-12-23", "confidence": 0.6903}
{"id": "f9c32dc9", "question": "If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "98", "resolution_time": "2019-03-16", "created_time": "2018-12-24", "confidence": 0.5823}
{"id": "2cf272f9", "question": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-12-27", "confidence": 0.5924}
{"id": "b62aba03", "question": "Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-03-01", "created_time": "2018-12-27", "confidence": 0.7173}
{"id": "e9c188ee", "question": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2018-12-29", "confidence": 0.7003}
{"id": "e9c368f0", "question": "Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2018-12-30", "confidence": 0.69}
{"id": "116dbdb8", "question": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-01-01", "created_time": "2018-12-30", "confidence": 0.7149}
{"id": "ba731dc5", "question": "When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2019-01-26", "resolution_time": "2019-01-26", "created_time": "2018-12-30", "confidence": 0.4705}
{"id": "3c3433f4", "question": "First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2016-06-02", "confidence": 0.7182}
{"id": "2fc4b005", "question": "Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-01", "created_time": "2019-01-01", "confidence": 0.6556}
{"id": "bf4a502f", "question": "Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2019-01-01", "confidence": 0.6181}
{"id": "b8473884", "question": "Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-03", "created_time": "2019-01-04", "confidence": 0.6893}
{"id": "3492f4d1", "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-07-01", "created_time": "2019-01-06", "confidence": 0.5874}
{"id": "8b1adc09", "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-24", "created_time": "2019-01-07", "confidence": 0.5163}
{"id": "a035fd6a", "question": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-12-10", "created_time": "2019-01-08", "confidence": 0.7054}
{"id": "b82a1caf", "question": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-01-09", "confidence": 0.7066}
{"id": "6fcb031b", "question": "Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2019-01-12", "confidence": 0.5718}
{"id": "5cef888d", "question": "Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-01", "created_time": "2018-05-16", "confidence": 0.2136}
{"id": "00a77345", "question": "What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "64", "resolution_time": "2021-05-22", "created_time": "2019-01-16", "confidence": 0.6514}
{"id": "754f79ee", "question": "Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-05-02", "created_time": "2019-01-16", "confidence": 0.5834}
{"id": "0b453eee", "question": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-01-17", "confidence": 0.6958}
{"id": "fb0041a6", "question": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-10-15", "created_time": "2019-01-17", "confidence": 0.4498}
{"id": "bb78039d", "question": "Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-02-27", "created_time": "2019-01-18", "confidence": 0.6235}
{"id": "ef6f91ee", "question": "When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-05-05", "resolution_time": "2020-05-07", "created_time": "2019-01-21", "confidence": 0.5333}
{"id": "5683d2a8", "question": "Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2019-01-24", "confidence": 0.5616}
{"id": "9911847b", "question": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-01-29", "confidence": 0.6867}
{"id": "440f0550", "question": "Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-12", "created_time": "2019-01-29", "confidence": 0.4603}
{"id": "ab408307", "question": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-17", "created_time": "2019-01-30", "confidence": 0.4148}
{"id": "604e539a", "question": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2019-01-31", "confidence": 0.6735}
{"id": "6e11ffb6", "question": "Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-07-21", "created_time": "2019-02-08", "confidence": 0.5884}
{"id": "057644ce", "question": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-02-10", "confidence": 0.6912}
{"id": "9b85b0ba", "question": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-05-21", "created_time": "2019-02-19", "confidence": 0.6019}
{"id": "7fbcbae9", "question": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2019-02-19", "confidence": 0.4259}
{"id": "57f30e23", "question": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-09-29", "created_time": "2019-02-19", "confidence": 0.3812}
{"id": "ff4c3309", "question": "When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-04-04", "resolution_time": "2020-04-04", "created_time": "2019-02-27", "confidence": 0.5676}
{"id": "1afa94dc", "question": "Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-13", "created_time": "2019-03-09", "confidence": 0.4806}
{"id": "0c571391", "question": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-12", "created_time": "2019-03-15", "confidence": 0.7194}
{"id": "716b33a0", "question": "Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-04-12", "created_time": "2019-03-24", "confidence": 0.617}
{"id": "e990115b", "question": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-25", "created_time": "2019-03-25", "confidence": 0.4368}
{"id": "ac51e06e", "question": "Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-12-12", "created_time": "2019-03-31", "confidence": 0.6885}
{"id": "a881bd44", "question": "Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-05-29", "created_time": "2019-04-06", "confidence": 0.503}
{"id": "e632baac", "question": "How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "below_lower_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2019-04-27", "confidence": 0.5523}
{"id": "611006b6", "question": "Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-11-19", "created_time": "2019-05-17", "confidence": 0.6393}
{"id": "a476adb2", "question": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2019-05-27", "confidence": 0.7195}
{"id": "97698070", "question": "Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2019-06-13", "confidence": 0.6699}
{"id": "6c5f6c72", "question": "Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-02-29", "created_time": "2019-05-15", "confidence": 0.6675}
{"id": "0e48cba7", "question": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2019-06-18", "confidence": 0.7238}
{"id": "fce16888", "question": "Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-08-25", "created_time": "2019-07-02", "confidence": 0.4174}
{"id": "cd5d5766", "question": "Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-01", "created_time": "2019-07-10", "confidence": 0.5259}
{"id": "cb4ac4a7", "question": "Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-30", "created_time": "2019-07-10", "confidence": 0.6401}
{"id": "221a5429", "question": "Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-10-01", "created_time": "2019-07-16", "confidence": 0.6565}
{"id": "fcde52d0", "question": "Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-01", "created_time": "2019-07-16", "confidence": 0.5193}
{"id": "c1a64f66", "question": "Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-01-13", "created_time": "2019-07-16", "confidence": 0.6052}
{"id": "1d98655d", "question": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2019-07-19", "confidence": 0.5587}
{"id": "4e6ee462", "question": "Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-11-01", "created_time": "2019-07-25", "confidence": 0.4995}
{"id": "be978ff5", "question": "British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-29", "created_time": "2019-08-02", "confidence": 0.479}
{"id": "c8ba41f1", "question": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-09-07", "created_time": "2019-08-07", "confidence": 0.6095}
{"id": "d0efaaae", "question": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-12-25", "resolution_time": "2021-12-25", "created_time": "2019-08-15", "confidence": 0.7019}
{"id": "5651b9f4", "question": "Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-19", "created_time": "2019-08-17", "confidence": 0.5167}
{"id": "4383613f", "question": "When will the median Hongkonger be merely \"quite disatisfied\" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2020-09-24", "created_time": "2019-08-19", "confidence": 0.7158}
{"id": "1b59a55b", "question": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-02-06", "resolution_time": "2022-02-06", "created_time": "2019-08-28", "confidence": 0.4706}
{"id": "243cec63", "question": "Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2359", "resolution_time": "2021-08-25", "created_time": "2019-08-31", "confidence": 0.5948}
{"id": "69de3533", "question": "Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-19", "created_time": "2019-09-13", "confidence": 0.5628}
{"id": "cbff5226", "question": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "14", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2019-09-21", "confidence": 0.5265}
{"id": "3eb7c792", "question": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-09-22", "confidence": 0.2892}
{"id": "ce7850d0", "question": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-03", "created_time": "2019-09-22", "confidence": 0.6781}
{"id": "77b3385f", "question": "Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2019-09-24", "confidence": 0.3616}
{"id": "e21ba1ad", "question": "When will at least 20 US states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-12-09", "resolution_time": "2022-12-09", "created_time": "2019-09-24", "confidence": 0.5449}
{"id": "bea44ff8", "question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-15", "created_time": "2019-09-28", "confidence": 0.1923}
{"id": "4562cf11", "question": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-07", "created_time": "2019-10-02", "confidence": 0.5021}
{"id": "8f14859f", "question": "Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-02", "created_time": "2019-10-03", "confidence": 0.4686}
{"id": "50b82769", "question": "Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-01", "created_time": "2019-10-15", "confidence": 0.7019}
{"id": "62682637", "question": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2019-10-17", "confidence": 0.6794}
{"id": "3b30635e", "question": "By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-05", "created_time": "2019-10-27", "confidence": 0.6395}
{"id": "c21e1923", "question": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "538", "resolution_time": "2020-07-01", "created_time": "2019-10-29", "confidence": 0.6947}
{"id": "80496f08", "question": "Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-09-20", "created_time": "2019-10-31", "confidence": 0.6585}
{"id": "4bfd7ed9", "question": "Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2019-10-31", "confidence": 0.4321}
{"id": "f1fc76a9", "question": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-12-12", "created_time": "2019-11-01", "confidence": 0.5935}
{"id": "6eda90b8", "question": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-02", "created_time": "2019-11-01", "confidence": 0.6841}
{"id": "828937a4", "question": "By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-08", "created_time": "2019-11-02", "confidence": 0.4765}
{"id": "8cefe958", "question": "In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2019-10-31", "confidence": 0.6099}
{"id": "b6f02584", "question": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-08", "created_time": "2019-11-02", "confidence": 0.6632}
{"id": "09e7a585", "question": "Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-20", "created_time": "2019-11-02", "confidence": 0.6855}
{"id": "86566018", "question": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-12", "created_time": "2019-11-19", "confidence": 0.6936}
{"id": "99d7c9f0", "question": "When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-07-12", "resolution_time": "2022-07-13", "created_time": "2019-11-28", "confidence": 0.4596}
{"id": "7c94dbc0", "question": "Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-01-01", "created_time": "2019-12-05", "confidence": 0.5708}
{"id": "78018654", "question": "Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-16", "created_time": "2019-12-14", "confidence": 0.5169}
{"id": "7b178bf6", "question": "Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-20", "created_time": "2019-12-19", "confidence": 0.6075}
{"id": "dcc3207e", "question": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "18", "resolution_time": "2021-10-29", "created_time": "2019-12-20", "confidence": 0.5232}
{"id": "eeac142c", "question": "Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2019-12-21", "confidence": 0.719}
{"id": "b3185f34", "question": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-07-15", "created_time": "2019-12-24", "confidence": 0.6273}
{"id": "3aad488f", "question": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "45", "resolution_time": "2021-10-29", "created_time": "2019-12-20", "confidence": 0.5457}
{"id": "45d2c182", "question": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2019-12-28", "confidence": 0.5052}
{"id": "efca964d", "question": "Will the S&P 500 Index  end 2020 higher?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-01", "confidence": 0.5621}
{"id": "c4f3b3d4", "question": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-01", "confidence": 0.6995}
{"id": "0d8194a6", "question": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2020-01-06", "confidence": 0.6837}
{"id": "b6f2eddb", "question": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-09", "confidence": 0.7423}
{"id": "9b5625f8", "question": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.645}
{"id": "b8f26a8e", "question": "Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6262}
{"id": "40e4ca58", "question": "In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6878}
{"id": "a3f58e2c", "question": "Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-01-31", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.5114}
{"id": "b1ee27cb", "question": "Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-23", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.5466}
{"id": "997f8e43", "question": "Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6939}
{"id": "e4192389", "question": "Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-04", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.566}
{"id": "a9809fa3", "question": "Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6021}
{"id": "72acb3a2", "question": "Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-05-10", "created_time": "2020-01-13", "confidence": 0.6819}
{"id": "f5211d10", "question": "Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-04-04", "created_time": "2020-01-13", "confidence": 0.6376}
{"id": "a4f8b081", "question": "Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-07", "created_time": "2020-01-17", "confidence": 0.7096}
{"id": "77613a94", "question": "[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2020-03-06", "created_time": "2020-01-17", "confidence": 0.7139}
{"id": "c21a1579", "question": "How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "55", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-01-19", "confidence": 0.5869}
{"id": "df5ab464", "question": "Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-01-19", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "6e91051a", "question": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2019-12-26", "confidence": 0.7011}
{"id": "de64de86", "question": "How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5078220", "resolution_time": "2022-05-06", "created_time": "2020-01-25", "confidence": 0.587}
{"id": "f0821006", "question": "How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4470", "resolution_time": "2021-01-19", "created_time": "2020-01-27", "confidence": 0.6702}
{"id": "5b19f9c8", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "71810", "resolution_time": "2020-02-17", "created_time": "2020-01-26", "confidence": 0.6639}
{"id": "de62ad07", "question": "Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-02-15", "created_time": "2018-05-16", "confidence": 0.4289}
{"id": "17259f0d", "question": "Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-31", "created_time": "2020-02-03", "confidence": 0.5603}
{"id": "4567e541", "question": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-10-11", "resolution_time": "2021-10-26", "created_time": "2020-02-03", "confidence": 0.5916}
{"id": "ee8b1102", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "89197", "resolution_time": "2020-03-02", "created_time": "2020-01-26", "confidence": 0.6653}
{"id": "f7dac209", "question": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2020-02-07", "confidence": 0.7166}
{"id": "b6cd25de", "question": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2020-02-07", "confidence": 0.7165}
{"id": "9b22363a", "question": "Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-04", "created_time": "2020-02-07", "confidence": 0.5978}
{"id": "5e3e2a7c", "question": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-08", "created_time": "2020-02-08", "confidence": 0.1435}
{"id": "ea95921e", "question": "Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2020-02-09", "confidence": 0.6387}
{"id": "cb4235f6", "question": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2020-02-09", "confidence": 0.4048}
{"id": "ba24285a", "question": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-23", "created_time": "2020-02-11", "confidence": 0.3364}
{"id": "bea6969b", "question": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1642", "resolution_time": "2024-06-20", "created_time": "2020-02-11", "confidence": 0.6481}
{"id": "6738a35b", "question": "Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-19", "created_time": "2020-02-11", "confidence": 0.5135}
{"id": "74177aa5", "question": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-28", "created_time": "2020-02-11", "confidence": 0.5695}
{"id": "b0ecfad4", "question": "Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2020-02-17", "confidence": 0.6451}
{"id": "c60a8251", "question": "Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-24", "created_time": "2020-02-18", "confidence": 0.5049}
{"id": "56712225", "question": "Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-22", "created_time": "2020-02-19", "confidence": 0.5064}
{"id": "a9341322", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2419", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.5238}
{"id": "b6b319dd", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "286697", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.6366}
{"id": "6305f050", "question": "Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-17", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.4409}
{"id": "90dbadaf", "question": "Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-17", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.6608}
{"id": "0f921825", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2932", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.6684}
{"id": "3c7652fa", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "81137", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.5966}
{"id": "19fd70f3", "question": "What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.7232}
{"id": "d384d23d", "question": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-11", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.5123}
{"id": "1fbceaaf", "question": "How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1406574", "resolution_time": "2020-04-27", "created_time": "2020-02-22", "confidence": 0.5675}
{"id": "5272e584", "question": "Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-02-23", "confidence": 0.1433}
{"id": "f113afaf", "question": "If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-07", "created_time": "2020-02-24", "confidence": 0.5428}
{"id": "bb21e122", "question": "Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-02-24", "confidence": 0.7006}
{"id": "5daff672", "question": "How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "397", "resolution_time": "2020-04-01", "created_time": "2020-02-25", "confidence": 0.6228}
{"id": "66ebb2a2", "question": "Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-06", "created_time": "2020-02-26", "confidence": 0.6391}
{"id": "1a134930", "question": "How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2456", "resolution_time": "2020-04-01", "created_time": "2020-02-26", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "5fdbd50f", "question": "Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-31", "created_time": "2020-02-27", "confidence": 0.5252}
{"id": "a76bc8a6", "question": "Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-12", "created_time": "2020-02-28", "confidence": 0.6242}
{"id": "be8a62f8", "question": "Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-18", "created_time": "2020-02-28", "confidence": 0.4855}
{"id": "ee9714aa", "question": "What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2022-05-06", "created_time": "2020-02-28", "confidence": 0.5585}
{"id": "3646f5ef", "question": "Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-05", "created_time": "2020-02-28", "confidence": 0.5827}
{"id": "7eccb65c", "question": "How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "11816", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-28", "confidence": 0.5816}
{"id": "84d869cc", "question": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9361784", "resolution_time": "2020-07-02", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.686}
{"id": "8ffb49fa", "question": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "23226449", "resolution_time": "2020-10-04", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.6322}
{"id": "5d95ddd9", "question": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "47588363", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.6065}
{"id": "f2c9f7f8", "question": "Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-08", "created_time": "2020-03-03", "confidence": 0.7076}
{"id": "10327d2c", "question": "Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "12", "resolution_time": "2020-12-29", "created_time": "2020-03-04", "confidence": 0.6768}
{"id": "dfc5b908", "question": "Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-16", "created_time": "2020-03-04", "confidence": 0.6778}
{"id": "0c58bece", "question": "What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "18592", "resolution_time": "2020-11-16", "created_time": "2020-03-05", "confidence": 0.6225}
{"id": "b545a101", "question": "Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-13", "created_time": "2020-03-05", "confidence": 0.4932}
{"id": "337e9a32", "question": "Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-05", "created_time": "2020-03-05", "confidence": 0.6929}
{"id": "a5610fb7", "question": "What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2020-03-06", "confidence": 0.4673}
{"id": "49066eb2", "question": "What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-01-05", "created_time": "2020-03-07", "confidence": 0.4607}
{"id": "f67ee849", "question": "What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "52", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-03-08", "confidence": 0.6059}
{"id": "9c86b1dc", "question": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2020-03-10", "confidence": 0.7058}
{"id": "78011861", "question": "How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "37845", "resolution_time": "2020-04-27", "created_time": "2020-03-11", "confidence": 0.7803}
{"id": "8025bfcd", "question": "How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1221759132", "resolution_time": "2022-01-17", "created_time": "2020-03-11", "confidence": 0.5414}
{"id": "27ac1798", "question": "How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-03-13", "confidence": 0.8184}
{"id": "44704280", "question": "Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-04-17", "created_time": "2020-03-13", "confidence": 0.5211}
{"id": "d10e5560", "question": "Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-03-13", "confidence": 0.7018}
{"id": "af4120e7", "question": "Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-10-02", "created_time": "2020-03-14", "confidence": 0.4337}
{"id": "78b78a4a", "question": "When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-30", "resolution_time": "2021-06-28", "created_time": "2020-03-14", "confidence": 0.6312}
{"id": "e175ca43", "question": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2024-03-16", "created_time": "2020-03-15", "confidence": 0.8311}
{"id": "d3675a39", "question": "When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-04-02", "resolution_time": "2020-04-02", "created_time": "2020-03-16", "confidence": 0.7021}
{"id": "2d66ede3", "question": "How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "152840", "resolution_time": "2020-04-27", "created_time": "2020-03-16", "confidence": 0.6842}
{"id": "0afb36c7", "question": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred  worldwide, before 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1221759132", "resolution_time": "2022-01-17", "created_time": "2020-03-20", "confidence": 0.5859}
{"id": "2b2151a5", "question": "Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-03-21", "confidence": 0.6823}
{"id": "8eddc096", "question": "Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-09-11", "created_time": "2020-03-21", "confidence": 0.6346}
{"id": "697c6cad", "question": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-28", "created_time": "2020-03-21", "confidence": 0.6814}
{"id": "f4988226", "question": "What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-5", "resolution_time": "2020-04-29", "created_time": "2020-03-22", "confidence": 0.5715}
{"id": "05ac397e", "question": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-21", "created_time": "2020-03-24", "confidence": 0.2167}
{"id": "d5ad803d", "question": "Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-04-26", "created_time": "2020-03-25", "confidence": 0.6515}
{"id": "a572aa36", "question": "Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-04-20", "created_time": "2020-03-25", "confidence": 0.6349}
{"id": "aab5ddc7", "question": "Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-09-15", "created_time": "2020-03-26", "confidence": 0.613}
{"id": "310e13e4", "question": "What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15", "resolution_time": "2020-05-08", "created_time": "2020-03-26", "confidence": 0.6645}
{"id": "2cf107d0", "question": "What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-33", "resolution_time": "2020-07-30", "created_time": "2020-03-29", "confidence": 0.5395}
{"id": "147ae853", "question": "What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15", "resolution_time": "2021-01-14", "created_time": "2020-03-31", "confidence": 0.7418}
{"id": "93abfd4c", "question": "Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-16", "created_time": "2020-03-31", "confidence": 0.6481}
{"id": "efbd247b", "question": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2021-10-08", "created_time": "2020-03-31", "confidence": 0.6592}
{"id": "bed56a54", "question": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-12-15", "resolution_time": "2022-01-07", "created_time": "2020-04-03", "confidence": 0.4633}
{"id": "f2beec2d", "question": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2022-01-07", "created_time": "2020-04-05", "confidence": 0.6418}
{"id": "be1744e7", "question": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "7", "resolution_time": "2022-02-01", "created_time": "2020-04-05", "confidence": 0.3262}
{"id": "bf8b9437", "question": "Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-04-25", "created_time": "2020-04-06", "confidence": 0.6866}
{"id": "e9bcf074", "question": "What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "25382", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-04-07", "confidence": 0.6802}
{"id": "b719d832", "question": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2020-04-07", "confidence": 0.6113}
{"id": "67e319a6", "question": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-02-01", "created_time": "2020-04-08", "confidence": 0.6537}
{"id": "cf53e576", "question": "Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-22", "created_time": "2020-04-08", "confidence": 0.5782}
{"id": "a48e2fe6", "question": "When will Disneyland reopen?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-30", "resolution_time": "2021-05-01", "created_time": "2020-04-12", "confidence": 0.4641}
{"id": "21b09bfb", "question": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-04-13", "confidence": 0.7207}
{"id": "6544b4f0", "question": "What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2020-06-07", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.2158}
{"id": "600b435f", "question": "LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3349", "resolution_time": "2020-05-09", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.6286}
{"id": "0373a6ae", "question": "LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-05-09", "resolution_time": "2020-05-20", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.5313}
{"id": "17f8685b", "question": "Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-07", "created_time": "2020-04-19", "confidence": 0.7053}
{"id": "64103da2", "question": "How many months of 2020 will be declared \"earth's warmest on record\" by NOAA?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2021-01-21", "created_time": "2020-04-23", "confidence": 0.7502}
{"id": "6e0dcb7e", "question": "LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1152006", "resolution_time": "2020-05-04", "created_time": "2020-04-24", "confidence": 0.6232}
{"id": "0d637e14", "question": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "10880000", "resolution_time": "2022-05-18", "created_time": "2020-04-24", "confidence": 0.6531}
{"id": "d877d563", "question": "LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-10", "created_time": "2020-04-24", "confidence": 0.7037}
{"id": "f9258e39", "question": "Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-14", "created_time": "2020-04-24", "confidence": 0.6959}
{"id": "6aab301d", "question": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "21", "resolution_time": "2023-08-11", "created_time": "2020-04-25", "confidence": 0.6288}
{"id": "f7a99cfe", "question": "LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-24", "created_time": "2020-04-27", "confidence": 0.6495}
{"id": "6a3f031e", "question": "LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-07", "created_time": "2020-04-27", "confidence": 0.6031}
{"id": "e6e8b533", "question": "LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-21", "created_time": "2020-04-27", "confidence": 0.227}
{"id": "9206b956", "question": "LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-06-21", "created_time": "2020-04-27", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "73e9619e", "question": "LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "659", "resolution_time": "2020-05-17", "created_time": "2020-04-27", "confidence": 0.693}
{"id": "43498bb7", "question": "What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-04-30", "confidence": 0.6564}
{"id": "c87a9379", "question": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2020-05-06", "confidence": 0.7178}
{"id": "5839fab8", "question": "Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-17", "created_time": "2020-05-15", "confidence": 0.5137}
{"id": "74d71167", "question": "Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-05-15", "confidence": 0.5751}
{"id": "8522288b", "question": "Will Israel annex  the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by  the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-05-17", "confidence": 0.6215}
{"id": "6f63841a", "question": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-04-21", "resolution_time": "2024-04-21", "created_time": "2020-05-20", "confidence": 0.5042}
{"id": "5664b16c", "question": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-05-23", "confidence": 0.703}
{"id": "a3838573", "question": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "7", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2020-05-26", "confidence": 0.748}
{"id": "b385573e", "question": "Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-09-27", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.4649}
{"id": "4597d007", "question": "Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-08", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.4988}
{"id": "fa3f1756", "question": "Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-20", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.4117}
{"id": "09360c99", "question": "Will 2020's UK Christmas #1 be a joke?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-25", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.4106}
{"id": "41eceba8", "question": "Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-22", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.5518}
{"id": "4a4e096d", "question": "How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "51", "resolution_time": "2020-09-02", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.6375}
{"id": "bb2637e8", "question": "How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "54", "resolution_time": "2020-09-28", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.5672}
{"id": "55e02e4d", "question": "Will global oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2020-06-10", "confidence": 0.5844}
{"id": "395d8e0b", "question": "Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-06-13", "confidence": 0.6207}
{"id": "d826a098", "question": "What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "61", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-06-16", "confidence": 0.6389}
{"id": "365ddf65", "question": "When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-08-17", "resolution_time": "2020-08-17", "created_time": "2020-06-16", "confidence": 0.5842}
{"id": "c8b6a934", "question": "What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-02-11", "created_time": "2020-06-16", "confidence": 0.7738}
{"id": "82931893", "question": "Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-06-19", "confidence": 0.6944}
{"id": "bad3761e", "question": "Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-06-19", "confidence": 0.6042}
{"id": "ba10bc8e", "question": "Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-20", "created_time": "2020-06-24", "confidence": 0.5417}
{"id": "4a9d3343", "question": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-06-11", "resolution_time": "2021-09-15", "created_time": "2020-06-26", "confidence": 0.5971}
{"id": "deb14f53", "question": "What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "48", "resolution_time": "2020-11-05", "created_time": "2020-06-28", "confidence": 0.7261}
{"id": "30ec71d6", "question": "Will Stefan Molyneux receive a  long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-07", "created_time": "2020-06-30", "confidence": 0.5462}
{"id": "65f3a398", "question": "Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-06-30", "confidence": 0.6408}
{"id": "b6f4b308", "question": "Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-13", "created_time": "2020-07-01", "confidence": 0.5871}
{"id": "9b694d46", "question": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-05-01", "created_time": "2020-07-01", "confidence": 0.5055}
{"id": "ea9ab32c", "question": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-07-01", "created_time": "2020-07-01", "confidence": 0.6954}
{"id": "7eb09485", "question": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-07-02", "confidence": 0.7067}
{"id": "3087a074", "question": "If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "66641", "resolution_time": "2020-12-18", "created_time": "2020-07-05", "confidence": 0.6426}
{"id": "a84051b2", "question": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2020-07-05", "confidence": 0.7224}
{"id": "a02cc7b6", "question": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-07-01", "created_time": "2020-07-05", "confidence": 0.7271}
{"id": "e03d7699", "question": "Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit at the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-24", "created_time": "2020-07-07", "confidence": 0.5462}
{"id": "b302f88d", "question": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-01", "created_time": "2020-07-08", "confidence": 0.6935}
{"id": "f085291d", "question": "If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-13", "created_time": "2020-07-09", "confidence": 0.4933}
{"id": "ad9f5f96", "question": "What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2020-07-10", "confidence": 0.4917}
{"id": "5a8251f8", "question": "What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-4", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-07-11", "confidence": 0.7372}
{"id": "96a38c79", "question": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-07", "resolution_time": "2021-01-06", "created_time": "2020-07-12", "confidence": 0.3209}
{"id": "5d6ba56c", "question": "Will the \"unknown pneumonia\" outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-09-13", "created_time": "2020-07-13", "confidence": 0.676}
{"id": "bdd7432f", "question": "Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-16", "created_time": "2020-07-13", "confidence": 0.7277}
{"id": "1fdbd2a5", "question": "As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2030-06-02", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2020-07-14", "confidence": 0.5652}
{"id": "d1044858", "question": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-04-20", "created_time": "2020-07-14", "confidence": 0.3105}
{"id": "3d834520", "question": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-23", "resolution_time": "2021-05-30", "created_time": "2020-07-15", "confidence": 0.6251}
{"id": "c4822570", "question": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-06-28", "created_time": "2020-07-16", "confidence": 0.6093}
{"id": "ffd4ed12", "question": "Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-07-17", "confidence": 0.7092}
{"id": "d4d9a9a2", "question": "[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-11", "created_time": "2020-07-22", "confidence": 0.4574}
{"id": "dfb3bb6f", "question": "[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-12", "created_time": "2020-07-24", "confidence": 0.6782}
{"id": "f8dcf626", "question": "Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-07-26", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "91f1f87a", "question": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-07-30", "confidence": 0.6279}
{"id": "6a3cc6c6", "question": "How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-07-31", "confidence": 0.8419}
{"id": "f296a5b1", "question": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-09", "resolution_time": "2021-05-09", "created_time": "2020-07-31", "confidence": 0.5699}
{"id": "0b3e4492", "question": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-27", "created_time": "2020-08-05", "confidence": 0.6262}
{"id": "a3030570", "question": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2020-08-08", "confidence": 0.7288}
{"id": "2b7b2ad2", "question": "Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-08-16", "confidence": 0.6728}
{"id": "15cbad7c", "question": "Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2020-08-17", "confidence": 0.6938}
{"id": "4ac9cf96", "question": "What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2021-08-20", "created_time": "2020-08-18", "confidence": 0.414}
{"id": "506a2ee5", "question": "Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-08-20", "confidence": 0.7042}
{"id": "9396a92d", "question": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-09-30", "created_time": "2020-08-24", "confidence": 0.634}
{"id": "2f91775b", "question": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-28", "resolution_time": "2022-12-31", "created_time": "2020-08-29", "confidence": 0.556}
{"id": "b83ffbd0", "question": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2020-08-29", "confidence": 0.5624}
{"id": "2ef23a71", "question": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-26", "created_time": "2020-08-29", "confidence": 0.5824}
{"id": "3c781361", "question": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2020-08-30", "confidence": 0.6542}
{"id": "2dad5b76", "question": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2020-09-04", "confidence": 0.6932}
{"id": "f995d7fd", "question": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-09-07", "created_time": "2020-09-05", "confidence": 0.532}
{"id": "43860ac6", "question": "Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-10-14", "created_time": "2020-09-14", "confidence": 0.7014}
{"id": "9667bb50", "question": "Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2020-09-18", "confidence": 0.7029}
{"id": "008e901b", "question": "When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-10-26", "resolution_time": "2020-10-27", "created_time": "2020-09-19", "confidence": 0.7522}
{"id": "19e5955b", "question": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-09-28", "created_time": "2020-09-26", "confidence": 0.4862}
{"id": "29c9d0ba", "question": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-10", "created_time": "2020-09-29", "confidence": 0.5986}
{"id": "10d4b36a", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "56", "resolution_time": "2020-11-29", "created_time": "2020-10-01", "confidence": 0.6505}
{"id": "b5dbbc18", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "31", "resolution_time": "2020-11-29", "created_time": "2020-10-01", "confidence": 0.6945}
{"id": "c7d960bd", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "43", "resolution_time": "2020-11-29", "created_time": "2020-10-01", "confidence": 0.5812}
{"id": "c49d3d7b", "question": "When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-10-12", "resolution_time": "2020-10-12", "created_time": "2020-10-02", "confidence": 0.6009}
{"id": "321eb872", "question": "When will the second US presidential debate take place?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-10-22", "resolution_time": "2020-10-23", "created_time": "2020-10-02", "confidence": 0.7355}
{"id": "31809f14", "question": "Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2020-10-03", "confidence": 0.72}
{"id": "be52404e", "question": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2020-10-03", "confidence": 0.7216}
{"id": "9bff14ea", "question": "Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-24", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.3719}
{"id": "b156f21e", "question": "By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-01", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.6358}
{"id": "b06f21ab", "question": "Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-28", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.3636}
{"id": "730cc6fa", "question": "Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-13", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.6691}
{"id": "3f572dc5", "question": "On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-04", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.5667}
{"id": "9f2d2ad8", "question": "Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-10-07", "confidence": 0.7135}
{"id": "ab5738c1", "question": "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-04-01", "created_time": "2020-10-11", "confidence": 0.661}
{"id": "c8df610d", "question": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-10-11", "confidence": 0.4492}
{"id": "7e73f65a", "question": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "12", "resolution_time": "2022-02-21", "created_time": "2020-10-13", "confidence": 0.5671}
{"id": "8325e68f", "question": "Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-12", "created_time": "2020-10-15", "confidence": 0.3461}
{"id": "a06b47a1", "question": "Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-10-15", "confidence": 0.5672}
{"id": "4e287efb", "question": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-06-30", "resolution_time": "2022-06-29", "created_time": "2020-10-16", "confidence": 0.6062}
{"id": "563e1d8a", "question": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2020-10-17", "confidence": 0.6262}
{"id": "95c9e6cc", "question": "Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-15", "created_time": "2020-10-21", "confidence": 0.6517}
{"id": "abc5e5a7", "question": "Will a major network call the election prematurely?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-10-22", "confidence": 0.6771}
{"id": "6cfe896e", "question": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-10-23", "confidence": 0.685}
{"id": "83c510ce", "question": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-08-08", "created_time": "2020-10-28", "confidence": 0.6519}
{"id": "b492f0df", "question": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-10-29", "confidence": 0.6458}
{"id": "3d9a60c5", "question": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-28", "created_time": "2020-10-30", "confidence": 0.6279}
{"id": "6dcfbddb", "question": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-21", "created_time": "2020-10-30", "confidence": 0.6486}
{"id": "c4b409f8", "question": "Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-01", "created_time": "2020-11-04", "confidence": 0.412}
{"id": "a444410f", "question": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-07", "resolution_time": "2021-01-07", "created_time": "2020-11-06", "confidence": 0.5079}
{"id": "5a18f8de", "question": "Will Trump freely leave the White House?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-11-08", "confidence": 0.7047}
{"id": "e3861e78", "question": "What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2021-01-29", "created_time": "2020-11-08", "confidence": 0.6141}
{"id": "e17d6d1d", "question": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2020-11-09", "confidence": 0.4969}
{"id": "6ac65410", "question": "Will any states flip from the current projected winner?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-21", "created_time": "2020-11-09", "confidence": 0.7177}
{"id": "42077d80", "question": "Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-26", "created_time": "2020-11-10", "confidence": 0.6161}
{"id": "f2a317d7", "question": "Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-29", "created_time": "2020-11-10", "confidence": 0.5444}
{"id": "492c7799", "question": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-09", "created_time": "2020-11-10", "confidence": 0.4519}
{"id": "ca61ec36", "question": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-11-14", "confidence": 0.6318}
{"id": "54d7bc1d", "question": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-18", "resolution_time": "2021-04-25", "created_time": "2020-11-15", "confidence": 0.5694}
{"id": "7b042908", "question": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-20", "created_time": "2020-11-16", "confidence": 0.5938}
{"id": "b91f3609", "question": "Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-07", "created_time": "2020-11-17", "confidence": 0.3206}
{"id": "57c50cef", "question": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2022-01-07", "created_time": "2020-11-17", "confidence": 0.5781}
{"id": "a74c5626", "question": "Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-13", "created_time": "2020-11-18", "confidence": 0.3812}
{"id": "27ce0a94", "question": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-06", "created_time": "2020-11-18", "confidence": 0.4914}
{"id": "694f628b", "question": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-07", "created_time": "2020-11-19", "confidence": 0.4718}
{"id": "72f86da9", "question": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2022-09-05", "created_time": "2020-11-21", "confidence": 0.7969}
{"id": "0745ad13", "question": "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-13", "created_time": "2020-11-22", "confidence": 0.5625}
{"id": "80e3962a", "question": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-11-22", "resolution_time": "2021-11-22", "created_time": "2020-11-23", "confidence": 0.5829}
{"id": "256f21c7", "question": "What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-1", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2020-11-24", "confidence": 0.6258}
{"id": "ea2c5dfc", "question": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-03-11", "created_time": "2020-11-26", "confidence": 0.7279}
{"id": "60ff21b2", "question": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-19", "resolution_time": "2021-04-19", "created_time": "2020-11-28", "confidence": 0.5614}
{"id": "8c59ef54", "question": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-16", "created_time": "2020-11-30", "confidence": 0.6015}
{"id": "b6fcfe20", "question": "Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-12-01", "confidence": 0.7172}
{"id": "5b28661b", "question": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in person?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-12-01", "confidence": 0.7014}
{"id": "39d127b8", "question": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2020-12-01", "confidence": 0.673}
{"id": "e914d2b7", "question": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-04", "created_time": "2020-12-04", "confidence": 0.6737}
{"id": "bd82fd75", "question": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "11", "resolution_time": "2021-07-31", "created_time": "2020-12-06", "confidence": 0.5521}
{"id": "7c88b0d9", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "84", "resolution_time": "2021-11-22", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5696}
{"id": "7578b54e", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "87", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6038}
{"id": "8f052318", "question": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "744", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6047}
{"id": "0dc42164", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "85", "resolution_time": "2021-11-17", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5272}
{"id": "6a1114eb", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5446753", "resolution_time": "2022-01-05", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6682}
{"id": "9bc2a6b5", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "820000", "resolution_time": "2022-01-04", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5447}
{"id": "15f8e59f", "question": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2021-06-28", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6462}
{"id": "4e46de08", "question": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "199", "resolution_time": "2021-06-16", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6498}
{"id": "2bf657f9", "question": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-11-08", "resolution_time": "2021-11-08", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.3926}
{"id": "2d2a890f", "question": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-29", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6931}
{"id": "4f217d8e", "question": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-14", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6485}
{"id": "ad805c96", "question": "When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-20", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5443}
{"id": "2ccc295f", "question": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6763}
{"id": "14642c3e", "question": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5762}
{"id": "72496668", "question": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2022-06-20", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.665}
{"id": "20282395", "question": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6485}
{"id": "3dfcb7a5", "question": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "72", "resolution_time": "2022-04-04", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6209}
{"id": "5c36b9cd", "question": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "88227", "resolution_time": "2021-07-01", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6742}
{"id": "a5edbc52", "question": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "39", "resolution_time": "2021-09-28", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6697}
{"id": "fb4d847a", "question": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "393", "resolution_time": "2021-06-14", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6082}
{"id": "b215811a", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "90", "resolution_time": "2021-06-14", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6471}
{"id": "779a0e81", "question": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2021-09-19", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6503}
{"id": "ad8f754c", "question": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "91", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6049}
{"id": "8670fbc8", "question": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4469000000", "resolution_time": "2022-01-03", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.6335}
{"id": "d6ea5718", "question": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "961328", "resolution_time": "2022-02-22", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.5183}
{"id": "9001ac6e", "question": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2021-07-07", "created_time": "2020-12-14", "confidence": 0.8022}
{"id": "5a2332c8", "question": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-25", "created_time": "2020-12-20", "confidence": 0.5186}
{"id": "3a09fa1a", "question": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-04", "created_time": "2020-12-20", "confidence": 0.5733}
{"id": "b38bddf2", "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-20", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.6834}
{"id": "cc41ec42", "question": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-20", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.675}
{"id": "3fd6c56f", "question": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-12", "created_time": "2020-12-26", "confidence": 0.6365}
{"id": "da07bcef", "question": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-26", "created_time": "2020-12-26", "confidence": 0.5335}
{"id": "a046075c", "question": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "21", "resolution_time": "2022-02-09", "created_time": "2020-12-31", "confidence": 0.7111}
{"id": "21eb7308", "question": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-12-31", "confidence": 0.6136}
{"id": "9c661932", "question": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-01-03", "confidence": 0.6902}
{"id": "25b52852", "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-06-01", "created_time": "2021-01-05", "confidence": 0.6511}
{"id": "72390169", "question": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-05", "confidence": 0.6785}
{"id": "133e0ae3", "question": "Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2021-01-06", "confidence": 0.712}
{"id": "08bf8e8d", "question": "What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "39", "resolution_time": "2021-01-19", "created_time": "2021-01-06", "confidence": 0.7547}
{"id": "a5438912", "question": "[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before  the 2021/01/20 inauguration?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2021-01-07", "confidence": 0.6929}
{"id": "c55340f3", "question": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-08", "confidence": 0.708}
{"id": "e433f6ea", "question": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-15", "resolution_time": "2021-04-19", "created_time": "2021-01-09", "confidence": 0.7402}
{"id": "46f6bf9b", "question": "Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-21", "created_time": "2021-01-09", "confidence": 0.6911}
{"id": "eb40ffeb", "question": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-23", "created_time": "2021-01-10", "confidence": 0.7129}
{"id": "68efc696", "question": "Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-21", "created_time": "2021-01-10", "confidence": 0.6447}
{"id": "f83719ba", "question": "How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15576107", "resolution_time": "2021-02-16", "created_time": "2021-01-12", "confidence": 0.6376}
{"id": "d478e3f3", "question": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-09", "resolution_time": "2021-04-10", "created_time": "2021-01-12", "confidence": 0.7084}
{"id": "a72dbde9", "question": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-01", "created_time": "2021-01-12", "confidence": 0.6607}
{"id": "18f72ff8", "question": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.4476}
{"id": "a0d2da44", "question": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2022-04-01", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.4395}
{"id": "12143d03", "question": "Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.7081}
{"id": "34101b98", "question": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-23", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.4444}
{"id": "41c2b331", "question": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-08", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.5212}
{"id": "35947b2d", "question": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-25", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.6641}
{"id": "9f95c479", "question": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-01", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.6265}
{"id": "014b3fb6", "question": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2025-01-31", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.6509}
{"id": "b028a322", "question": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.6097}
{"id": "553cd80a", "question": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.6391}
{"id": "e505962f", "question": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-18", "created_time": "2021-01-15", "confidence": 0.3756}
{"id": "b80a1799", "question": "[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-03-10", "created_time": "2021-01-15", "confidence": 0.7179}
{"id": "7c593a5c", "question": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2021-01-16", "confidence": 0.4438}
{"id": "6261d284", "question": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-01-06", "created_time": "2021-01-16", "confidence": 0.5474}
{"id": "a1f4f10b", "question": "Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-16", "created_time": "2021-01-16", "confidence": 0.5549}
{"id": "904ed57c", "question": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-05", "created_time": "2021-01-17", "confidence": 0.4841}
{"id": "83179908", "question": "When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-02-02", "resolution_time": "2021-02-02", "created_time": "2021-01-19", "confidence": 0.5156}
{"id": "4e8754f7", "question": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-19", "confidence": 0.6492}
{"id": "2aa6a77f", "question": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-29", "created_time": "2021-01-19", "confidence": 0.5817}
{"id": "18da409b", "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-03", "created_time": "2021-01-21", "confidence": 0.6065}
{"id": "9d024169", "question": "Will Bill Gates fund a brain-computer interface company before 2031?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-15", "created_time": "2021-01-22", "confidence": 0.4313}
{"id": "91f2fb0e", "question": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-08-26", "created_time": "2021-01-22", "confidence": 0.6838}
{"id": "8c514a56", "question": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-03-24", "created_time": "2021-01-23", "confidence": 0.6717}
{"id": "a7c97e65", "question": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-01-12", "resolution_time": "2024-01-12", "created_time": "2021-01-23", "confidence": 0.7475}
{"id": "a75b3b02", "question": "Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-28", "created_time": "2021-01-24", "confidence": 0.4841}
{"id": "a3cc656d", "question": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2021-01-24", "confidence": 0.5191}
{"id": "496f2b5b", "question": "[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-08", "created_time": "2021-01-26", "confidence": 0.4311}
{"id": "6db4a13d", "question": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-02-21", "resolution_time": "2022-02-26", "created_time": "2021-01-27", "confidence": 0.6019}
{"id": "dbb513b7", "question": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-01-27", "confidence": 0.6987}
{"id": "2dcb500e", "question": "Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-01-27", "confidence": 0.4595}
{"id": "0eca53b9", "question": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-03", "created_time": "2021-01-27", "confidence": 0.6913}
{"id": "5c83b56c", "question": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-01-28", "confidence": 0.6873}
{"id": "108529aa", "question": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2021-01-28", "confidence": 0.4928}
{"id": "dfd42382", "question": "Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-29", "created_time": "2021-01-28", "confidence": 0.6998}
{"id": "6b21a5c7", "question": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-03", "created_time": "2021-01-29", "confidence": 0.7239}
{"id": "bcc15a43", "question": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-25", "created_time": "2021-01-29", "confidence": 0.5709}
{"id": "615d1cb5", "question": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-29", "created_time": "2021-01-30", "confidence": 0.5428}
{"id": "be8d3e6a", "question": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-01-31", "confidence": 0.6919}
{"id": "bb17910b", "question": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1817502", "resolution_time": "2021-03-05", "created_time": "2021-01-31", "confidence": 0.6547}
{"id": "a05b7206", "question": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-10", "resolution_time": "2021-05-19", "created_time": "2021-02-01", "confidence": 0.525}
{"id": "2dcba81c", "question": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2021-02-01", "confidence": 0.6823}
{"id": "3e9bec90", "question": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-05-01", "created_time": "2021-02-02", "confidence": 0.6608}
{"id": "5ae84afc", "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "49772180", "resolution_time": "2021-03-03", "created_time": "2021-02-02", "confidence": 0.5842}
{"id": "4d25ed29", "question": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-02-03", "confidence": 0.6497}
{"id": "776b9e32", "question": "[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-03-03", "created_time": "2021-02-07", "confidence": 0.5547}
{"id": "5ffe2f2c", "question": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-05-25", "resolution_time": "2022-05-26", "created_time": "2021-02-08", "confidence": 0.389}
{"id": "f493a703", "question": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-02-12", "confidence": 0.5642}
{"id": "949350e5", "question": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2021-02-13", "confidence": 0.6736}
{"id": "f682eeaa", "question": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2903730", "resolution_time": "2021-04-03", "created_time": "2021-02-13", "confidence": 0.6945}
{"id": "22990f97", "question": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-04-02", "created_time": "2021-02-15", "confidence": 0.4602}
{"id": "3f4c9509", "question": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-02-15", "confidence": 0.5948}
{"id": "3dfbf299", "question": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2550000", "resolution_time": "2021-05-02", "created_time": "2021-02-18", "confidence": 0.632}
{"id": "a1fa32a0", "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.3837}
{"id": "731e2bab", "question": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-24", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.6869}
{"id": "ac9c7e28", "question": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2022-01-07", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.495}
{"id": "36fd2689", "question": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-03", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.7156}
{"id": "e675a3d2", "question": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.5264}
{"id": "9b1be292", "question": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.6841}
{"id": "d1b06489", "question": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.5118}
{"id": "56870720", "question": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.5925}
{"id": "2fbded5d", "question": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-03-25", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.5578}
{"id": "5be21738", "question": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-11-17", "created_time": "2021-02-22", "confidence": 0.4922}
{"id": "03571539", "question": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-26", "created_time": "2021-02-22", "confidence": 0.4553}
{"id": "061a8ecf", "question": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "69182", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-02-25", "confidence": 0.7221}
{"id": "c4b601e5", "question": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "144894586", "resolution_time": "2021-04-30", "created_time": "2021-02-26", "confidence": 0.6882}
{"id": "d5fda948", "question": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-01", "created_time": "2021-02-28", "confidence": 0.6037}
{"id": "7f0df435", "question": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-02-28", "confidence": 0.6266}
{"id": "4bea6810", "question": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-05-10", "created_time": "2021-03-01", "confidence": 0.7157}
{"id": "8c497346", "question": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-05", "resolution_time": "2021-05-05", "created_time": "2021-03-03", "confidence": 0.5622}
{"id": "929f4e79", "question": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-24", "created_time": "2021-03-04", "confidence": 0.6837}
{"id": "c7cdd6fb", "question": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-03-07", "confidence": 0.5973}
{"id": "62141c57", "question": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-08", "created_time": "2021-03-08", "confidence": 0.7215}
{"id": "80d000e8", "question": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-03-13", "confidence": 0.4785}
{"id": "8c6d922e", "question": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-03-14", "confidence": 0.5926}
{"id": "113567cd", "question": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-03-15", "confidence": 0.6856}
{"id": "b1185288", "question": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-03", "created_time": "2021-03-16", "confidence": 0.6676}
{"id": "a823c355", "question": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-03", "created_time": "2021-03-20", "confidence": 0.6887}
{"id": "60847963", "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-02-04", "created_time": "2021-03-22", "confidence": 0.6902}
{"id": "96c66f3c", "question": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-29", "created_time": "2021-03-26", "confidence": 0.5457}
{"id": "d9c574b9", "question": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-03-29", "created_time": "2021-03-30", "confidence": 0.339}
{"id": "86e3b8fa", "question": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-02", "confidence": 0.3961}
{"id": "bed4236f", "question": "Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-01", "created_time": "2021-04-04", "confidence": 0.6193}
{"id": "bbfdd82a", "question": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-05", "resolution_time": "2021-05-05", "created_time": "2021-04-06", "confidence": 0.5518}
{"id": "8eb0c8e1", "question": "When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-04-20", "resolution_time": "2021-04-20", "created_time": "2021-04-09", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "7e444b47", "question": "How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "231000", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.5327}
{"id": "23902347", "question": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-23", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.6122}
{"id": "db7bdc27", "question": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1400000000", "resolution_time": "2023-04-11", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.4051}
{"id": "100d36c9", "question": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.5662}
{"id": "41f3fe75", "question": "How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.6393}
{"id": "e3f2a16f", "question": "Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-07-02", "created_time": "2021-04-19", "confidence": 0.3728}
{"id": "53a45a09", "question": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-09-01", "created_time": "2021-04-29", "confidence": 0.5721}
{"id": "d9e02c96", "question": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-01", "created_time": "2021-04-29", "confidence": 0.4079}
{"id": "2d3f40a3", "question": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-08-30", "created_time": "2021-04-29", "confidence": 0.5214}
{"id": "63946c4f", "question": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-04-29", "confidence": 0.6967}
{"id": "1d61348c", "question": "Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-05-14", "created_time": "2021-05-04", "confidence": 0.7207}
{"id": "2657c2fa", "question": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-05-04", "confidence": 0.5499}
{"id": "3219f0df", "question": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-20", "created_time": "2021-05-05", "confidence": 0.6954}
{"id": "7d4304cb", "question": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-03", "created_time": "2021-05-05", "confidence": 0.5252}
{"id": "b97c754c", "question": "Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-07-02", "created_time": "2021-05-09", "confidence": 0.3854}
{"id": "7b6c844d", "question": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.7101}
{"id": "4e028408", "question": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-29", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.7229}
{"id": "e2a9d859", "question": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.6794}
{"id": "cbef9b56", "question": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.5961}
{"id": "d0353eeb", "question": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.4683}
{"id": "691da56d", "question": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.6725}
{"id": "40581909", "question": "Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-05-18", "confidence": 0.6911}
{"id": "3d893685", "question": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-04", "created_time": "2021-05-29", "confidence": 0.6669}
{"id": "dfb90c8e", "question": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-22", "created_time": "2021-05-31", "confidence": 0.513}
{"id": "657a71da", "question": "When will the James Webb telescope be launched?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-12-25", "resolution_time": "2021-12-25", "created_time": "2021-06-02", "confidence": 0.7919}
{"id": "bfe811db", "question": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-05", "created_time": "2021-06-05", "confidence": 0.7235}
{"id": "f61d2b64", "question": "What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2022-10-01", "created_time": "2021-06-14", "confidence": 0.6171}
{"id": "a7627492", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-15", "confidence": 0.7189}
{"id": "b1ba4d81", "question": "How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "12512", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2021-06-15", "confidence": 0.817}
{"id": "200a5c02", "question": "What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-06-16", "confidence": 0.6868}
{"id": "35809150", "question": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-07", "created_time": "2021-06-17", "confidence": 0.6774}
{"id": "28fe57c4", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-21", "confidence": 0.7097}
{"id": "7dd13b83", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-21", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "f4683856", "question": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-22", "confidence": 0.7272}
{"id": "fe2987dc", "question": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-22", "confidence": 0.7253}
{"id": "a6576d25", "question": "How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2021-06-22", "confidence": 0.7466}
{"id": "fe29fa81", "question": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2021-06-23", "confidence": 0.6191}
{"id": "207fa5ca", "question": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-08-22", "created_time": "2021-06-30", "confidence": 0.5932}
{"id": "d283baca", "question": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-25", "created_time": "2021-07-17", "confidence": 0.5485}
{"id": "d1b6f917", "question": "Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-09-02", "created_time": "2021-07-19", "confidence": 0.5122}
{"id": "2b7d8dc7", "question": "When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-08-02", "created_time": "2021-07-26", "confidence": 0.7569}
{"id": "5d81aa29", "question": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-08-10", "created_time": "2021-08-03", "confidence": 0.529}
{"id": "d9423129", "question": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-11", "created_time": "2021-08-08", "confidence": 0.6309}
{"id": "7bf6d02b", "question": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-11", "created_time": "2021-08-09", "confidence": 0.5065}
{"id": "5069da9a", "question": "Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-09-19", "created_time": "2021-08-14", "confidence": 0.6846}
{"id": "019e7729", "question": "Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-09-05", "created_time": "2021-08-18", "confidence": 0.5058}
{"id": "38c7e8fd", "question": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-08-19", "confidence": 0.6464}
{"id": "19f42db6", "question": "What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "13", "resolution_time": "2025-01-28", "created_time": "2021-08-22", "confidence": 0.7098}
{"id": "ce3498ac", "question": "When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-04-18", "resolution_time": "2022-04-18", "created_time": "2021-08-22", "confidence": 0.7805}
{"id": "67005129", "question": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-01", "created_time": "2021-08-23", "confidence": 0.3584}
{"id": "b131de7b", "question": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-08-24", "confidence": 0.713}
{"id": "2e377b48", "question": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-24", "created_time": "2021-08-24", "confidence": 0.6897}
{"id": "8173a538", "question": "What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2320250281", "resolution_time": "2023-12-16", "created_time": "2021-08-25", "confidence": 0.6294}
{"id": "5a8387cf", "question": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-24", "created_time": "2021-09-10", "confidence": 0.6575}
{"id": "0ebda506", "question": "Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-21", "created_time": "2021-09-13", "confidence": 0.4992}
{"id": "2f914d8c", "question": "When will Ethereum abandon proof of work?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-09-15", "resolution_time": "2022-09-15", "created_time": "2021-09-13", "confidence": 0.5378}
{"id": "d50f9bb4", "question": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-11", "created_time": "2021-09-14", "confidence": 0.6363}
{"id": "5a98d064", "question": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-21", "created_time": "2021-09-14", "confidence": 0.4074}
{"id": "b5cb82b0", "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-09-16", "confidence": 0.7131}
{"id": "be114586", "question": "Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-01", "created_time": "2021-09-20", "confidence": 0.7234}
{"id": "504377af", "question": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-09-26", "confidence": 0.5211}
{"id": "616ff20a", "question": "Will Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-29", "created_time": "2021-09-26", "confidence": 0.5012}
{"id": "50b26763", "question": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-02", "confidence": 0.4048}
{"id": "ee647721", "question": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-08-03", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.5805}
{"id": "6888ce9a", "question": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-16", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.587}
{"id": "c7f361a0", "question": "How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "66", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6751}
{"id": "9a557256", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.66}
{"id": "7624bde1", "question": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.5633}
{"id": "24e1e9df", "question": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.5002}
{"id": "5421bbd1", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6786}
{"id": "73f0871e", "question": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6432}
{"id": "34e0629a", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-05", "confidence": 0.7179}
{"id": "972b0fa6", "question": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-05", "confidence": 0.7185}
{"id": "2cc811eb", "question": "How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "100", "resolution_time": "2024-02-16", "created_time": "2021-10-08", "confidence": 0.8077}
{"id": "a19cfe56", "question": "How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "189000", "resolution_time": "2023-11-02", "created_time": "2021-10-13", "confidence": 0.6739}
{"id": "141a778c", "question": "What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "78", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-20", "confidence": 0.7174}
{"id": "05fe5432", "question": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2021-10-21", "confidence": 0.644}
{"id": "5fb06a1a", "question": "Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-22", "confidence": 0.7062}
{"id": "fd808d8e", "question": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-11", "created_time": "2021-10-23", "confidence": 0.5538}
{"id": "8b1a99b5", "question": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-28", "confidence": 0.6664}
{"id": "1e0a5c03", "question": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-06", "created_time": "2021-10-29", "confidence": 0.722}
{"id": "baeb058f", "question": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-12-22", "created_time": "2021-11-03", "confidence": 0.5744}
{"id": "5ce7f7fb", "question": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2021-11-06", "confidence": 0.3377}
{"id": "eb34b693", "question": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-27", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.3868}
{"id": "52853a67", "question": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.6744}
{"id": "e14c6e0c", "question": "How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-10-05", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.5853}
{"id": "1164c8e1", "question": "Will any state leave NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.7246}
{"id": "d4dc8f4d", "question": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.6855}
{"id": "8f1f5355", "question": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-04", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.5482}
{"id": "8ce88019", "question": "Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-22", "created_time": "2021-11-11", "confidence": 0.6956}
{"id": "7254bf84", "question": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-11", "confidence": 0.6844}
{"id": "2ff3b8c4", "question": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-11", "confidence": 0.673}
{"id": "ea821374", "question": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-15", "confidence": 0.6013}
{"id": "9e3c023b", "question": "What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9", "resolution_time": "2023-01-12", "created_time": "2021-11-16", "confidence": 0.7426}
{"id": "1f5ee429", "question": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-08", "created_time": "2021-11-19", "confidence": 0.3985}
{"id": "037d432c", "question": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-08-31", "created_time": "2021-11-22", "confidence": 0.5953}
{"id": "3133de8e", "question": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-12-13", "created_time": "2021-11-23", "confidence": 0.1967}
{"id": "986e771d", "question": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2021-11-26", "confidence": 0.7223}
{"id": "fa78e12c", "question": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6902}
{"id": "b0ea05a9", "question": "When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-12-19", "resolution_time": "2022-01-14", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6478}
{"id": "af1ecaf7", "question": "[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "37", "resolution_time": "2022-03-20", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6134}
{"id": "b604411a", "question": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-08", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.7049}
{"id": "a5c10869", "question": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-01", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6125}
{"id": "1bc0decb", "question": "What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "76", "resolution_time": "2022-03-03", "created_time": "2021-11-28", "confidence": 0.6651}
{"id": "7ffecf77", "question": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-08", "created_time": "2021-11-29", "confidence": 0.6602}
{"id": "616e3f51", "question": "[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-16", "created_time": "2021-11-29", "confidence": 0.6614}
{"id": "526a9e02", "question": "Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms,  be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-23", "created_time": "2021-11-30", "confidence": 0.6148}
{"id": "7b95eb0d", "question": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-30", "confidence": 0.726}
{"id": "da4f8a2c", "question": "Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-02", "confidence": 0.7262}
{"id": "209dc012", "question": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-08", "created_time": "2021-12-06", "confidence": 0.5893}
{"id": "b17ddc64", "question": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-09-05", "created_time": "2021-12-08", "confidence": 0.4648}
{"id": "7e6c74a0", "question": "What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-09", "confidence": 0.6349}
{"id": "13fe291f", "question": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-24", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.7145}
{"id": "6b6e0e61", "question": "How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "720", "resolution_time": "2023-02-15", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.689}
{"id": "a5795e9a", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6672352", "resolution_time": "2023-01-05", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.7192}
{"id": "121012ec", "question": "How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "13093698779", "resolution_time": "2023-01-02", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6507}
{"id": "bf7d45f7", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1088000", "resolution_time": "2023-01-07", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6915}
{"id": "274bf967", "question": "Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-07", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.4875}
{"id": "39ec0747", "question": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.712}
{"id": "96c5125f", "question": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.7059}
{"id": "7c631033", "question": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-24", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.4846}
{"id": "ca720b7d", "question": "What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2023-03-31", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6941}
{"id": "a7f99673", "question": "What will the price of oil be for December 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "77", "resolution_time": "2023-01-10", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6024}
{"id": "314cb182", "question": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "918464", "resolution_time": "2023-01-17", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.431}
{"id": "8af5da3e", "question": "How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "105086", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2021-12-11", "confidence": 0.6809}
{"id": "14f9947b", "question": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-24", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.558}
{"id": "403f3158", "question": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-05-26", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.6521}
{"id": "b322915a", "question": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-20", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.4841}
{"id": "1e85827f", "question": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-07", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.6658}
{"id": "673d7b67", "question": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-13", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.6062}
{"id": "4c638c81", "question": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.6573}
{"id": "226a7f47", "question": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-21", "confidence": 0.3441}
{"id": "3fa94837", "question": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-27", "created_time": "2021-12-21", "confidence": 0.5561}
{"id": "d9b40374", "question": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-20", "created_time": "2021-12-24", "confidence": 0.6352}
{"id": "16177a48", "question": "What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-28", "confidence": 0.6274}
{"id": "c438fee6", "question": "How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "51", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-30", "confidence": 0.6712}
{"id": "1c484f59", "question": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-31", "confidence": 0.7162}
{"id": "feb44e22", "question": "Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-09-26", "created_time": "2022-01-01", "confidence": 0.6822}
{"id": "65b087af", "question": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-09-22", "created_time": "2022-01-02", "confidence": 0.5831}
{"id": "28a2cde7", "question": "Will Tether collapse before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-02", "confidence": 0.6894}
{"id": "0a306705", "question": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-01", "created_time": "2022-01-04", "confidence": 0.5187}
{"id": "f0722b59", "question": "Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-04", "confidence": 0.5905}
{"id": "e8f2c91d", "question": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-07", "created_time": "2022-01-04", "confidence": 0.5479}
{"id": "7ce2deaa", "question": "Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-04", "confidence": 0.3072}
{"id": "67ede918", "question": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-05", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "eb0b64e8", "question": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-05", "confidence": 0.6887}
{"id": "7fba0782", "question": "Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-09", "created_time": "2022-01-10", "confidence": 0.5775}
{"id": "96939230", "question": "Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-26", "created_time": "2022-01-11", "confidence": 0.6269}
{"id": "9f79d9a7", "question": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-08-08", "created_time": "2022-01-12", "confidence": 0.71}
{"id": "45472612", "question": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-21", "created_time": "2022-01-13", "confidence": 0.5656}
{"id": "9b88e4bb", "question": "[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-21", "created_time": "2022-01-14", "confidence": 0.4309}
{"id": "2c1e2288", "question": "Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-02-01", "created_time": "2022-01-14", "confidence": 0.6813}
{"id": "255cbfec", "question": "How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "178", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-16", "confidence": 0.6583}
{"id": "36157482", "question": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-12", "created_time": "2022-01-18", "confidence": 0.6527}
{"id": "d730907c", "question": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-19", "confidence": 0.7035}
{"id": "5e576735", "question": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-20", "confidence": 0.697}
{"id": "07e53c35", "question": "When will the S&P 500 next surpass its record high closing price set on Jan 3 2022?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-01-19", "resolution_time": "2024-01-19", "created_time": "2022-01-23", "confidence": 0.5331}
{"id": "c6b4a374", "question": "When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-01-28", "resolution_time": "2024-01-29", "created_time": "2022-01-23", "confidence": 0.6078}
{"id": "2878a028", "question": "What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4892", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-23", "confidence": 0.8711}
{"id": "82a19f67", "question": "Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-29", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.5256}
{"id": "2c59e821", "question": "Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-29", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.526}
{"id": "df7084ca", "question": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-07", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.5609}
{"id": "e7793962", "question": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.7144}
{"id": "35cc4d2f", "question": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-14", "created_time": "2022-01-27", "confidence": 0.5501}
{"id": "2a45b5e7", "question": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-28", "created_time": "2022-01-27", "confidence": 0.6932}
{"id": "8ee71afc", "question": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-02", "created_time": "2022-01-30", "confidence": 0.6723}
{"id": "ddceb5b3", "question": "Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-10", "created_time": "2022-02-03", "confidence": 0.6846}
{"id": "224e70fb", "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-02-24", "resolution_time": "2022-02-24", "created_time": "2022-02-04", "confidence": 0.5329}
{"id": "13867c71", "question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-06", "confidence": 0.6719}
{"id": "f2551afc", "question": "Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-08", "created_time": "2022-02-06", "confidence": 0.5901}
{"id": "9fb00a2c", "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-12", "created_time": "2022-02-07", "confidence": 0.4999}
{"id": "624f342e", "question": "Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-24", "created_time": "2022-02-09", "confidence": 0.7268}
{"id": "5e66ee13", "question": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-02-10", "confidence": 0.3077}
{"id": "38b122d1", "question": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-24", "created_time": "2022-02-18", "confidence": 0.5208}
{"id": "e22bfee1", "question": "What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "83", "resolution_time": "2022-05-31", "created_time": "2022-02-22", "confidence": 0.5568}
{"id": "95da8ef8", "question": "Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-22", "confidence": 0.7092}
{"id": "f8df28eb", "question": "Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.5106}
{"id": "f9f7089f", "question": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2023-04-24", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6896}
{"id": "739f4511", "question": "What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2023-04-24", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.519}
{"id": "40e2644f", "question": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-31", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.7239}
{"id": "13a1200f", "question": "How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "100000", "resolution_time": "2022-09-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.7075}
{"id": "f6773f81", "question": "Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-10", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6717}
{"id": "37efd716", "question": "If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-02", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6351}
{"id": "b7e4ebed", "question": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.5281}
{"id": "f70e03f4", "question": "Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-02", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.5873}
{"id": "30b62dd0", "question": "Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6627}
{"id": "a104144a", "question": "How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5914000", "resolution_time": "2023-05-10", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6932}
{"id": "eb8c52f4", "question": "Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-05", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6692}
{"id": "3092fbc9", "question": "Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6889}
{"id": "8e355516", "question": "Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6997}
{"id": "5696532f", "question": "What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "below_lower_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-12-29", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.5852}
{"id": "1e82d250", "question": "What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2024-01-18", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6491}
{"id": "6bbb023c", "question": "Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.5529}
{"id": "f1c9c302", "question": "Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6781}
{"id": "47581d5d", "question": "Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-31", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.479}
{"id": "beb1e650", "question": "Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6747}
{"id": "ae3b062b", "question": "Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.7049}
{"id": "aa72547d", "question": "Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6643}
{"id": "2737d066", "question": "Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6987}
{"id": "794fb9d4", "question": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-27", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.5343}
{"id": "c5f2c2eb", "question": "Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.7238}
{"id": "4249d617", "question": "Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.717}
{"id": "af6e0b56", "question": "Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-02", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.6899}
{"id": "7c86bb8c", "question": "Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.5901}
{"id": "6f7a645b", "question": "Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.7266}
{"id": "9948bcf6", "question": "Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.7195}
{"id": "6a7010de", "question": "Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-01-03", "created_time": "2022-02-27", "confidence": 0.7013}
{"id": "fe99178f", "question": "How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "30956818992", "resolution_time": "2024-02-17", "created_time": "2022-02-27", "confidence": 0.4982}
{"id": "1c22380b", "question": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-06", "created_time": "2022-03-01", "confidence": 0.5947}
{"id": "e3331994", "question": "How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "19473", "resolution_time": "2023-01-23", "created_time": "2022-03-01", "confidence": 0.68}
{"id": "a2a99782", "question": "Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-01", "confidence": 0.6956}
{"id": "6827cb1d", "question": "Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.6496}
{"id": "061a6747", "question": "Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.6621}
{"id": "75a976dc", "question": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.5806}
{"id": "197f238a", "question": "Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.7243}
{"id": "e88dd375", "question": "By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-17", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.4587}
{"id": "630f6925", "question": "Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.5301}
{"id": "12faea11", "question": "Will Russia control  Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.4975}
{"id": "607a1840", "question": "What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2023-06-30", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.3564}
{"id": "985c9fd1", "question": "Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.7262}
{"id": "194f3abc", "question": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-03-03", "confidence": 0.1396}
{"id": "3da6ef44", "question": "Will Finland join NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-04", "created_time": "2022-03-03", "confidence": 0.6151}
{"id": "d490875a", "question": "Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.667}
{"id": "c4e83cd3", "question": "Will the US \"Rewards for Justice\" program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6775}
{"id": "0abc984d", "question": "Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-07", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6059}
{"id": "99c0fb5b", "question": "Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO's Article 5 in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.726}
{"id": "a2af179f", "question": "Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.662}
{"id": "b2b135a4", "question": "Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6674}
{"id": "a6255a35", "question": "Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans' personal information by June 30, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-16", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6611}
{"id": "e39a2d77", "question": "Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-31", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.4217}
{"id": "18ac02c8", "question": "Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-15", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.7041}
{"id": "9c11b97b", "question": "Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-09", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.3414}
{"id": "09b5fef2", "question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-07", "created_time": "2022-03-08", "confidence": 0.5957}
{"id": "51adfcd5", "question": "What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1175220", "resolution_time": "2023-03-21", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.3546}
{"id": "d6d1508c", "question": "How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-05-03", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.6454}
{"id": "d356bce4", "question": "Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.686}
{"id": "d989341f", "question": "Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-08-01", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.6881}
{"id": "a03bd4a7", "question": "How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-06-22", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.5451}
{"id": "7b740ae3", "question": "Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-05-17", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.5207}
{"id": "5ac350cc", "question": "Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-14", "confidence": 0.7205}
{"id": "178aefee", "question": "Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-09", "created_time": "2022-03-15", "confidence": 0.5145}
{"id": "286cb1f5", "question": "How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6357", "resolution_time": "2022-05-03", "created_time": "2022-03-15", "confidence": 0.617}
{"id": "70fc7e80", "question": "Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-16", "confidence": 0.6146}
{"id": "e5807d2f", "question": "Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-03-16", "confidence": 0.6533}
{"id": "7a038753", "question": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-16", "confidence": 0.7152}
{"id": "133ddf08", "question": "Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-23", "confidence": 0.7082}
{"id": "afa97fb5", "question": "Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-28", "confidence": 0.7078}
{"id": "b139ff1a", "question": "Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-28", "confidence": 0.7212}
{"id": "ab13dd24", "question": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-28", "confidence": 0.7269}
{"id": "0b94b0dd", "question": "Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-09-14", "created_time": "2022-03-31", "confidence": 0.4415}
{"id": "10390443", "question": "Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-31", "created_time": "2022-04-10", "confidence": 0.4637}
{"id": "9fcc1560", "question": "Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-05-15", "created_time": "2022-04-10", "confidence": 0.5427}
{"id": "9bf4d442", "question": "Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-28", "created_time": "2022-04-14", "confidence": 0.4505}
{"id": "3a844213", "question": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-25", "created_time": "2022-04-14", "confidence": 0.4934}
{"id": "fef30f63", "question": "Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2022-04-15", "confidence": 0.7026}
{"id": "dec59abe", "question": "Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.7179}
{"id": "a92209f9", "question": "Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.7003}
{"id": "77e43927", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.6888}
{"id": "d5d2f43e", "question": "Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.639}
{"id": "30fe61bc", "question": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.7268}
{"id": "791337f3", "question": "What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "141", "resolution_time": "2022-12-01", "created_time": "2022-04-20", "confidence": 0.6295}
{"id": "f7b18f7d", "question": "Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-28", "created_time": "2022-04-24", "confidence": 0.5231}
{"id": "ac1582b8", "question": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2022-04-24", "confidence": 0.7176}
{"id": "a03b083e", "question": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-01", "created_time": "2022-04-24", "confidence": 0.7232}
{"id": "606937f7", "question": "Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-10", "created_time": "2022-05-03", "confidence": 0.6409}
{"id": "0e6f1189", "question": "When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-11-18", "resolution_time": "2022-11-18", "created_time": "2022-05-04", "confidence": 0.5354}
{"id": "1ca68c57", "question": "Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-08-01", "created_time": "2022-05-05", "confidence": 0.7034}
{"id": "b65e7aa3", "question": "Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-06", "confidence": 0.6738}
{"id": "f6636dcb", "question": "Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-06", "confidence": 0.6725}
{"id": "3d6f28dc", "question": "Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-09", "confidence": 0.3226}
{"id": "ac0ae9b1", "question": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-21", "created_time": "2022-05-11", "confidence": 0.5282}
{"id": "5fde8386", "question": "Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-18", "confidence": 0.6401}
{"id": "81df2d7b", "question": "How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "79", "resolution_time": "2022-07-31", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.6502}
{"id": "85840f99", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "395", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.6235}
{"id": "256ce02f", "question": "Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-20", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.6875}
{"id": "2d62f558", "question": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-22", "created_time": "2022-05-25", "confidence": 0.6633}
{"id": "737addfa", "question": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-08-24", "created_time": "2022-05-29", "confidence": 0.7151}
{"id": "ba7a3564", "question": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-01", "confidence": 0.6866}
{"id": "f6191c4a", "question": "Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-09", "created_time": "2022-06-01", "confidence": 0.6402}
{"id": "489a2ea9", "question": "Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-02", "confidence": 0.6623}
{"id": "f54e3cc4", "question": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-12", "created_time": "2022-06-04", "confidence": 0.5867}
{"id": "fcf50343", "question": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-06-06", "confidence": 0.6608}
{"id": "b861c933", "question": "How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.4071}
{"id": "6c7bd0ca", "question": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.755}
{"id": "1f64139e", "question": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.5705}
{"id": "5d5ec144", "question": "Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-09", "created_time": "2022-06-08", "confidence": 0.6772}
{"id": "7b4b7bd8", "question": "Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-29", "created_time": "2022-06-09", "confidence": 0.7026}
{"id": "7c03ee24", "question": "How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "900", "resolution_time": "2024-04-01", "created_time": "2022-06-14", "confidence": 0.6972}
{"id": "1cb0658c", "question": "Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-06", "created_time": "2022-06-18", "confidence": 0.6973}
{"id": "8b4e555c", "question": "Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-19", "confidence": 0.684}
{"id": "eb4032df", "question": "Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-19", "created_time": "2022-06-19", "confidence": 0.5457}
{"id": "65b35410", "question": "Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-21", "confidence": 0.729}
{"id": "3999766a", "question": "Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-23", "confidence": 0.6906}
{"id": "49df7ece", "question": "Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-08", "created_time": "2022-06-24", "confidence": 0.6448}
{"id": "e2ec33aa", "question": "Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-07-19", "confidence": 0.531}
{"id": "d3344090", "question": "Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-08-02", "created_time": "2022-07-25", "confidence": 0.5051}
{"id": "c7088759", "question": "Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-01", "created_time": "2022-07-27", "confidence": 0.6463}
{"id": "4e45b0cd", "question": "What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "18989", "resolution_time": "2022-08-31", "created_time": "2022-07-28", "confidence": 0.6651}
{"id": "7cfb959e", "question": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2022-07-31", "confidence": 0.6805}
{"id": "049c1407", "question": "When will China end Covid Zero?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-12-26", "resolution_time": "2022-12-26", "created_time": "2022-08-04", "confidence": 0.6516}
{"id": "1a41b509", "question": "Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-15", "created_time": "2022-08-06", "confidence": 0.3305}
{"id": "73285c83", "question": "Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-08-07", "confidence": 0.7138}
{"id": "d07586ce", "question": "Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-08-08", "confidence": 0.6449}
{"id": "a03d4dad", "question": "Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-19", "created_time": "2022-08-11", "confidence": 0.4028}
{"id": "f4293a96", "question": "Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-04", "confidence": 0.5244}
{"id": "f3014acb", "question": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-13", "created_time": "2022-09-05", "confidence": 0.3035}
{"id": "df4c0e29", "question": "When will Liz Truss no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-10-25", "resolution_time": "2022-10-25", "created_time": "2022-09-06", "confidence": 0.5019}
{"id": "66b51629", "question": "Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2022-09-21", "confidence": 0.7101}
{"id": "ce4524c8", "question": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-21", "confidence": 0.5577}
{"id": "3cb3c7dd", "question": "Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-23", "created_time": "2022-09-23", "confidence": 0.478}
{"id": "cb89d4a7", "question": "Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-23", "confidence": 0.7282}
{"id": "efabc53a", "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-30", "confidence": 0.7241}
{"id": "a32d7396", "question": "Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2022-10-01", "confidence": 0.447}
{"id": "7fb057c5", "question": "Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-10-05", "confidence": 0.7284}
{"id": "7d2ecae6", "question": "Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-10-17", "resolution_time": "2023-10-17", "created_time": "2022-10-20", "confidence": 0.482}
{"id": "cd639bd7", "question": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-10-20", "confidence": 0.7257}
{"id": "facda188", "question": "Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-05-01", "created_time": "2022-10-20", "confidence": 0.6613}
{"id": "b7509b1f", "question": "When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-10-21", "confidence": 0.7984}
{"id": "30b443f2", "question": "Will a radiological \"dirty bomb\" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-10-24", "confidence": 0.7205}
{"id": "d2f36384", "question": "Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-11-02", "confidence": 0.5732}
{"id": "74e1d8b6", "question": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-11-04", "confidence": 0.5887}
{"id": "1868e0c7", "question": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-11-10", "confidence": 0.6958}
{"id": "9acf569a", "question": "Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-13", "created_time": "2022-11-10", "confidence": 0.5118}
{"id": "8efb0156", "question": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-11-13", "confidence": 0.6382}
{"id": "7bb1ccb8", "question": "[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-30", "created_time": "2022-11-15", "confidence": 0.7275}
{"id": "6947f81b", "question": "Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-11-16", "confidence": 0.6233}
{"id": "bd4068b3", "question": "What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1278", "resolution_time": "2022-12-02", "created_time": "2022-11-18", "confidence": 0.5487}
{"id": "8ddf309c", "question": "When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-11-18", "resolution_time": "2023-11-18", "created_time": "2022-11-24", "confidence": 0.5312}
{"id": "6439a1db", "question": "Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2022-12-02", "confidence": 0.6491}
{"id": "b231fd17", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-09", "confidence": 0.7069}
{"id": "5636e7e1", "question": "In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-09", "confidence": 0.6295}
{"id": "a8b00fc4", "question": "In 2023 will any new country join NATO?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-04", "created_time": "2022-12-10", "confidence": 0.5556}
{"id": "11603b64", "question": "In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-10", "confidence": 0.6961}
{"id": "860a91ca", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-11", "confidence": 0.6741}
{"id": "19512612", "question": "In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-11", "confidence": 0.5642}
{"id": "6b0180d3", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-11", "confidence": 0.6233}
{"id": "c4fba64e", "question": "In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-29", "created_time": "2022-12-14", "confidence": 0.5767}
{"id": "4a1f6fa9", "question": "In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-05", "created_time": "2022-12-14", "confidence": 0.7054}
{"id": "eb6bb17d", "question": "Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-01", "created_time": "2022-12-14", "confidence": 0.6308}
{"id": "bf6e516b", "question": "Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-15", "confidence": 0.6847}
{"id": "1324d696", "question": "In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-25", "created_time": "2022-12-20", "confidence": 0.539}
{"id": "99d40975", "question": "When will Elon Musk be succeeded as CEO of Twitter?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-06-05", "resolution_time": "2023-06-06", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5152}
{"id": "2566be3f", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6855}
{"id": "2da5aa23", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7042}
{"id": "ccc7872c", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7014}
{"id": "5ee68c73", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.698}
{"id": "0eb1d4f2", "question": "In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-30", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5151}
{"id": "5db6fbb8", "question": "In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7078}
{"id": "c6bb58b8", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6997}
{"id": "ebcdd0f6", "question": "Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5922}
{"id": "d10f1b62", "question": "Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.4324}
{"id": "78b43ffd", "question": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-29", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6628}
{"id": "0599ee5f", "question": "In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-29", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5899}
{"id": "41b2cb68", "question": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6664}
{"id": "9e100f6f", "question": "Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.4658}
{"id": "dbde9c2f", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6524}
{"id": "aa516e67", "question": "In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.3664}
{"id": "3c4fd262", "question": "In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander's bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen's satisfaction?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-14", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.2935}
{"id": "e79fe227", "question": "In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5648}
{"id": "d39211f3", "question": "In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6236}
{"id": "b9d3325b", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-05", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6946}
{"id": "606f59a6", "question": "In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-05", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5764}
{"id": "71932022", "question": "Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-10", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.5059}
{"id": "b0980940", "question": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.4944}
{"id": "f57b631e", "question": "Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-01", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.5505}
{"id": "43fad6e0", "question": "Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-21", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.5148}
{"id": "28cd196e", "question": "When will GPT-4 be announced?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-03-14", "resolution_time": "2023-03-14", "created_time": "2022-12-24", "confidence": 0.5259}
{"id": "262c99ca", "question": "Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2022-12-27", "confidence": 0.603}
{"id": "dd78bb73", "question": "Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-29", "confidence": 0.6448}
{"id": "36e61aed", "question": "Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-12", "created_time": "2023-01-04", "confidence": 0.624}
{"id": "0a903380", "question": "Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-04", "created_time": "2023-01-08", "confidence": 0.6282}
{"id": "339ef19a", "question": "Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-01-11", "confidence": 0.3503}
{"id": "508de2d7", "question": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-01-12", "confidence": 0.5215}
{"id": "46328f91", "question": "Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-22", "created_time": "2023-01-12", "confidence": 0.6542}
{"id": "6462250a", "question": "Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-03", "created_time": "2023-01-13", "confidence": 0.5892}
{"id": "c4125b94", "question": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-01-16", "confidence": 0.5853}
{"id": "f488eb27", "question": "Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-01-21", "confidence": 0.7291}
{"id": "935c70e2", "question": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2023-01-21", "confidence": 0.5683}
{"id": "af2dc879", "question": "Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-08", "created_time": "2023-01-22", "confidence": 0.5102}
{"id": "e8d63894", "question": "Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-01", "created_time": "2023-01-24", "confidence": 0.3506}
{"id": "6fb3cba4", "question": "Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-01-26", "confidence": 0.7239}
{"id": "b47491e8", "question": "Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2023-01-27", "confidence": 0.7238}
{"id": "3c0e6888", "question": "Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to \"High\" or \"Very High\" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-07", "created_time": "2023-01-27", "confidence": 0.6993}
{"id": "c4214b3c", "question": "When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-05-11", "resolution_time": "2023-05-12", "created_time": "2023-01-27", "confidence": 0.6155}
{"id": "d88f3756", "question": "What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "111", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2023-01-27", "confidence": 0.7853}
{"id": "e211930e", "question": "In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-11", "created_time": "2023-02-02", "confidence": 0.6598}
{"id": "0a2d6d2f", "question": "Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-02-03", "confidence": 0.6193}
{"id": "897ea846", "question": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-02-13", "created_time": "2023-02-03", "confidence": 0.5409}
{"id": "d3689e3f", "question": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-02-04", "confidence": 0.6789}
{"id": "fe724fed", "question": "Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-02-06", "confidence": 0.7275}
{"id": "646114f3", "question": "Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-31", "created_time": "2023-02-09", "confidence": 0.7254}
{"id": "af8509a6", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-02-13", "confidence": 0.7268}
{"id": "8600f0f2", "question": "Will Alphabet's (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2023-02-14", "confidence": 0.6851}
{"id": "5e850c3a", "question": "Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-02", "created_time": "2023-02-14", "confidence": 0.6547}
{"id": "dff06a17", "question": "Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-29", "created_time": "2023-02-16", "confidence": 0.3965}
{"id": "e8275805", "question": "Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-05", "created_time": "2023-02-21", "confidence": 0.7089}
{"id": "471f8ec0", "question": "Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-06", "created_time": "2023-02-23", "confidence": 0.69}
{"id": "0bf32080", "question": "How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2024-01-15", "created_time": "2023-03-10", "confidence": 0.6809}
{"id": "53a208d4", "question": "Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-05-01", "created_time": "2023-03-11", "confidence": 0.491}
{"id": "685cd944", "question": "Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2023-03-15", "confidence": 0.7062}
{"id": "7de1a9c6", "question": "Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-01", "created_time": "2023-03-15", "confidence": 0.5929}
{"id": "5c937f4b", "question": "Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-01", "created_time": "2023-03-21", "confidence": 0.719}
{"id": "d45eecb1", "question": "Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2023-03-25", "confidence": 0.7161}
{"id": "d6577d7b", "question": "Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-30", "created_time": "2023-03-25", "confidence": 0.6239}
{"id": "f4833eac", "question": "Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2023-03-25", "confidence": 0.7099}
{"id": "5e00f800", "question": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-03-25", "confidence": 0.6864}
{"id": "13a18a99", "question": "Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-14", "created_time": "2023-03-26", "confidence": 0.5072}
{"id": "e0962378", "question": "Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2023-03-26", "confidence": 0.7118}
{"id": "14b3f028", "question": "Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-05", "created_time": "2023-03-26", "confidence": 0.6111}
{"id": "0edfdb4b", "question": "Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-03-28", "confidence": 0.7281}
{"id": "3f8818c0", "question": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-02", "created_time": "2023-03-31", "confidence": 0.7157}
{"id": "9196d6c5", "question": "Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-15", "created_time": "2023-03-31", "confidence": 0.4938}
{"id": "a25901b1", "question": "Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-03-31", "confidence": 0.5813}
{"id": "0c6910c6", "question": "When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-06-30", "created_time": "2023-03-31", "confidence": 0.7898}
{"id": "4c034ea1", "question": "Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-14", "created_time": "2023-04-01", "confidence": 0.5232}
{"id": "c51ae4a8", "question": "Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-30", "created_time": "2023-04-05", "confidence": 0.538}
{"id": "457df28e", "question": "Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-26", "created_time": "2023-04-06", "confidence": 0.0956}
{"id": "e34571ca", "question": "Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-04-08", "confidence": 0.7168}
{"id": "7e6dbbb6", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-04-11", "confidence": 0.7075}
{"id": "99116fae", "question": "Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-21", "created_time": "2023-04-11", "confidence": 0.6518}
{"id": "5590b7e0", "question": "How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-04-25", "created_time": "2023-04-11", "confidence": 0.5953}
{"id": "e34b2e49", "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-09", "created_time": "2023-04-12", "confidence": 0.3863}
{"id": "29721a76", "question": "Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-25", "created_time": "2023-04-14", "confidence": 0.6506}
{"id": "9ef9ccd6", "question": "Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-15", "created_time": "2023-04-16", "confidence": 0.7089}
{"id": "25bf815a", "question": "Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-01", "created_time": "2023-04-17", "confidence": 0.4859}
{"id": "07f6ce3f", "question": "Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-02", "created_time": "2023-04-17", "confidence": 0.7056}
{"id": "1cdc514c", "question": "Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-08", "created_time": "2023-04-18", "confidence": 0.4699}
{"id": "968e917b", "question": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-04-24", "confidence": 0.7265}
{"id": "2625869c", "question": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-04-21", "created_time": "2023-04-26", "confidence": 0.5547}
{"id": "7ce191b2", "question": "Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-05", "created_time": "2023-04-27", "confidence": 0.6927}
{"id": "ecfeafa4", "question": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-09-06", "created_time": "2023-04-28", "confidence": 0.5097}
{"id": "02107bf3", "question": "Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-06", "created_time": "2023-04-28", "confidence": 0.7215}
{"id": "f91e9eb0", "question": "Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-05-13", "created_time": "2023-04-28", "confidence": 0.5148}
{"id": "abe2b138", "question": "Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2023-04-30", "confidence": 0.5998}
{"id": "654bdbdf", "question": "Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-06", "created_time": "2023-05-02", "confidence": 0.6013}
{"id": "71d547a3", "question": "Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-05-13", "created_time": "2023-05-03", "confidence": 0.6908}
{"id": "300dabbb", "question": "Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-05-09", "created_time": "2023-05-05", "confidence": 0.5505}
{"id": "c81cd31e", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-05-31", "created_time": "2023-05-05", "confidence": 0.702}
{"id": "08a22922", "question": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2023-05-08", "confidence": 0.2244}
{"id": "0e2cab73", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-05-09", "confidence": 0.6167}
{"id": "66b19c09", "question": "What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "76", "resolution_time": "2023-09-20", "created_time": "2023-05-10", "confidence": 0.6361}
{"id": "ef24b185", "question": "Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-30", "created_time": "2023-05-13", "confidence": 0.4532}
{"id": "66036629", "question": "Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-15", "created_time": "2023-05-18", "confidence": 0.6547}
{"id": "48106186", "question": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-15", "created_time": "2023-05-18", "confidence": 0.7214}
{"id": "dbda2886", "question": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2023-05-21", "confidence": 0.6785}
{"id": "3459fe02", "question": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-02", "created_time": "2023-05-23", "confidence": 0.627}
{"id": "06e00675", "question": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-12", "created_time": "2023-05-25", "confidence": 0.7174}
{"id": "b1e5416a", "question": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-14", "created_time": "2023-05-30", "confidence": 0.628}
{"id": "253fcb33", "question": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4373", "resolution_time": "2023-06-14", "created_time": "2023-05-30", "confidence": 0.5536}
{"id": "8195f080", "question": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-06-01", "confidence": 0.6535}
{"id": "ab7908a0", "question": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-08", "created_time": "2023-06-02", "confidence": 0.5561}
{"id": "4c72f1b1", "question": "Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-11", "created_time": "2023-06-07", "confidence": 0.2229}
{"id": "79f23818", "question": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-06-10", "confidence": 0.5974}
{"id": "22cc97f5", "question": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-13", "created_time": "2023-06-18", "confidence": 0.6108}
{"id": "69ea0567", "question": "Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-06-20", "confidence": 0.7278}
{"id": "5190b62e", "question": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-17", "created_time": "2023-06-22", "confidence": 0.4848}
{"id": "d22afce1", "question": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-06-24", "confidence": 0.6379}
{"id": "3670c659", "question": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-06-24", "confidence": 0.6996}
{"id": "86e2f6a3", "question": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-06-25", "confidence": 0.7239}
{"id": "f32b0a24", "question": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-16", "created_time": "2023-06-25", "confidence": 0.5765}
{"id": "cbfe108d", "question": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-07-19", "created_time": "2023-06-25", "confidence": 0.4261}
{"id": "e5a31f0c", "question": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2023-06-27", "confidence": 0.7133}
{"id": "f5d412b4", "question": "Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-13", "created_time": "2023-06-30", "confidence": 0.7053}
{"id": "eabcef0d", "question": "What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "125", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-07-05", "confidence": 0.6327}
{"id": "2ff7b947", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-30", "created_time": "2023-07-06", "confidence": 0.6696}
{"id": "5a03300c", "question": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-20", "created_time": "2023-07-08", "confidence": 0.4995}
{"id": "0e9214f7", "question": "When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-09-27", "resolution_time": "2023-09-27", "created_time": "2023-07-13", "confidence": 0.4613}
{"id": "ca1fc127", "question": "When will the second Starship test flight occur?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-07-14", "confidence": 0.7497}
{"id": "3ed3da27", "question": "Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-11", "created_time": "2023-07-15", "confidence": 0.561}
{"id": "33c13aae", "question": "Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-23", "created_time": "2023-07-17", "confidence": 0.5884}
{"id": "ab2c127f", "question": "Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-04", "created_time": "2023-07-17", "confidence": 0.6831}
{"id": "9bd70da3", "question": "Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-24", "created_time": "2023-07-17", "confidence": 0.5756}
{"id": "77c03ce8", "question": "What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-08-20", "created_time": "2023-07-19", "confidence": 0.4045}
{"id": "ada359e0", "question": "Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-29", "created_time": "2023-07-19", "confidence": 0.7242}
{"id": "678a12da", "question": "Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2023-07-19", "confidence": 0.6589}
{"id": "9b6a00aa", "question": "When will the next UK general election take place?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-07-04", "resolution_time": "2024-07-04", "created_time": "2023-07-24", "confidence": 0.527}
{"id": "9188bf35", "question": "Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-25", "created_time": "2023-07-25", "confidence": 0.7281}
{"id": "8b4ce0f1", "question": "Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-24", "created_time": "2023-07-25", "confidence": 0.5773}
{"id": "fcc58963", "question": "Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-07-25", "confidence": 0.7103}
{"id": "e3c091f1", "question": "Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-01", "created_time": "2023-07-26", "confidence": 0.5031}
{"id": "1bf6f9be", "question": "Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-11", "created_time": "2023-07-26", "confidence": 0.655}
{"id": "4c90c3a5", "question": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-01", "created_time": "2023-07-30", "confidence": 0.7184}
{"id": "302e77db", "question": "Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2023-08-01", "confidence": 0.7272}
{"id": "d821a318", "question": "Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-12", "created_time": "2023-08-01", "confidence": 0.6753}
{"id": "cb06f904", "question": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-03", "created_time": "2023-08-01", "confidence": 0.6533}
{"id": "8c89ba0a", "question": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-08-02", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "3bdc1a35", "question": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2023-08-03", "confidence": 0.7133}
{"id": "a7db842d", "question": "Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2023-08-04", "confidence": 0.7061}
{"id": "2c8697f0", "question": "Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-24", "created_time": "2023-08-04", "confidence": 0.6625}
{"id": "01d21a7f", "question": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-08-15", "confidence": 0.4079}
{"id": "4092c3ba", "question": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-24", "created_time": "2023-08-23", "confidence": 0.7293}
{"id": "c8563ab8", "question": "Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden's Ukraine dealings before September 1st?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-01", "created_time": "2023-08-24", "confidence": 0.6848}
{"id": "da3ae875", "question": "Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-09-15", "created_time": "2023-09-06", "confidence": 0.5756}
{"id": "bd51ce53", "question": "Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-23", "created_time": "2023-09-06", "confidence": 0.6221}
{"id": "7eed6cb0", "question": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-09-07", "confidence": 0.7162}
{"id": "dd39711e", "question": "How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2023-10-04", "created_time": "2023-09-07", "confidence": 0.8367}
{"id": "75b23574", "question": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-07-16", "created_time": "2023-09-11", "confidence": 0.6809}
{"id": "cb94a610", "question": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-09-19", "confidence": 0.7223}
{"id": "75d9ac77", "question": "Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-02", "created_time": "2023-09-20", "confidence": 0.708}
{"id": "9a3c5656", "question": "Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-23", "created_time": "2023-09-22", "confidence": 0.5872}
{"id": "fa0e59bd", "question": "Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-09-26", "confidence": 0.711}
{"id": "ee6cae1b", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-09-28", "confidence": 0.7258}
{"id": "21d5af13", "question": "Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-09-29", "confidence": 0.7226}
{"id": "d8058bb8", "question": "What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "7", "resolution_time": "2023-12-01", "created_time": "2023-10-03", "confidence": 0.3583}
{"id": "12e4f9b8", "question": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-19", "created_time": "2023-10-03", "confidence": 0.345}
{"id": "ae087ab0", "question": "How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2023-10-25", "created_time": "2023-10-04", "confidence": 0.6412}
{"id": "3a5f156e", "question": "When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-10-25", "resolution_time": "2023-10-25", "created_time": "2023-10-04", "confidence": 0.5396}
{"id": "0506ae69", "question": "Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-20", "created_time": "2023-10-06", "confidence": 0.5014}
{"id": "bf05564e", "question": "Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-08", "confidence": 0.6169}
{"id": "b61897e0", "question": "What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "72", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-08", "confidence": 0.607}
{"id": "592d53ce", "question": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-09", "confidence": 0.7178}
{"id": "73a3eb0e", "question": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-18", "created_time": "2023-10-11", "confidence": 0.6918}
{"id": "8aaf1eae", "question": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-09", "created_time": "2023-10-12", "confidence": 0.5995}
{"id": "ce359541", "question": "Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2023-10-13", "confidence": 0.729}
{"id": "88b2d938", "question": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-25", "created_time": "2023-10-16", "confidence": 0.5066}
{"id": "cee130f3", "question": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-10-16", "confidence": 0.7137}
{"id": "77dbc3a7", "question": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-17", "confidence": 0.7282}
{"id": "60dfee98", "question": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-31", "created_time": "2023-10-19", "confidence": 0.5502}
{"id": "df8cfb93", "question": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-11-17", "created_time": "2023-10-22", "confidence": 0.4296}
{"id": "b14ddad0", "question": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2023-10-26", "confidence": 0.707}
{"id": "395bead7", "question": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-26", "confidence": 0.7189}
{"id": "ab584e87", "question": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-18", "created_time": "2023-11-01", "confidence": 0.5405}
{"id": "e75773f7", "question": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-11-01", "confidence": 0.72}
{"id": "228a6b22", "question": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-10", "created_time": "2023-11-06", "confidence": 0.7063}
{"id": "39afda35", "question": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-11-21", "created_time": "2023-11-09", "confidence": 0.4205}
{"id": "07c34d32", "question": "How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.8644}
{"id": "f459455d", "question": "Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7179}
{"id": "cf5144f8", "question": "Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.5782}
{"id": "144aee77", "question": "Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-06", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7129}
{"id": "fb378863", "question": "Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.725}
{"id": "04b9e30e", "question": "Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7101}
{"id": "8337a953", "question": "Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7273}
{"id": "fc401161", "question": "Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-06", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.5694}
{"id": "1ed18d09", "question": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-01", "created_time": "2023-11-14", "confidence": 0.5957}
{"id": "dfb8da66", "question": "When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-12-16", "created_time": "2023-11-15", "confidence": 0.7811}
{"id": "e6b8b479", "question": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-01", "created_time": "2023-11-16", "confidence": 0.7259}
{"id": "b2a2070c", "question": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-07", "created_time": "2023-11-20", "confidence": 0.5514}
{"id": "79a2e37c", "question": "Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-28", "created_time": "2023-11-22", "confidence": 0.5099}
{"id": "4ec31b3c", "question": "Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-04", "created_time": "2023-11-29", "confidence": 0.7}
{"id": "7916f8ab", "question": "What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-12-01", "confidence": 0.8706}
{"id": "98fcab50", "question": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-22", "created_time": "2023-12-13", "confidence": 0.452}
{"id": "947e651e", "question": "Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-14", "confidence": 0.7119}
{"id": "68cb6252", "question": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-19", "confidence": 0.6927}
{"id": "01cd4d78", "question": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-15", "created_time": "2023-12-19", "confidence": 0.5303}
{"id": "3e487fa0", "question": "Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-26", "created_time": "2023-12-19", "confidence": 0.4248}
{"id": "be3a6c53", "question": "If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-11-06", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.7211}
{"id": "afbe75b2", "question": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-15", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.5295}
{"id": "a4572f86", "question": "Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI's Superalignment team at the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.6538}
{"id": "67b20661", "question": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.7234}
{"id": "b5bdfde7", "question": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.7246}
{"id": "c423a556", "question": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7014}
{"id": "ad62bd00", "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.5979}
{"id": "8eaa334e", "question": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-23", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.5876}
{"id": "c109df3c", "question": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.6531}
{"id": "b9d143fa", "question": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7106}
{"id": "00f01d51", "question": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7266}
{"id": "b10f3012", "question": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7175}
{"id": "4e1943b3", "question": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.603}
{"id": "1f3749aa", "question": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.6969}
{"id": "43f3b378", "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.7281}
{"id": "87e7857d", "question": "Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-07-22", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.6568}
{"id": "ff8f1524", "question": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.6811}
{"id": "5b9690e5", "question": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.7013}
{"id": "e20f702a", "question": "Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.2767}
{"id": "03881a14", "question": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.527}
{"id": "a0a1012c", "question": "Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-28", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.5772}
{"id": "c24e279b", "question": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-19", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.5136}
{"id": "3405ecaf", "question": "Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.7239}
{"id": "9c5b9976", "question": "Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-10-06", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.1651}
{"id": "ba0ba2b0", "question": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-10-13", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.4662}
{"id": "7c5267a5", "question": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-23", "confidence": 0.6844}
{"id": "61896188", "question": "Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-06", "created_time": "2024-01-02", "confidence": 0.4347}
{"id": "6d4c2660", "question": "Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-26", "created_time": "2024-01-02", "confidence": 0.4894}
{"id": "176ef0c5", "question": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-16", "created_time": "2024-01-03", "confidence": 0.6796}
{"id": "575b8f9f", "question": "When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-03-14", "resolution_time": "2024-03-14", "created_time": "2024-01-04", "confidence": 0.5699}
{"id": "20cd05ae", "question": "Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-02-24", "created_time": "2024-01-04", "confidence": 0.3051}
{"id": "b5a5ce24", "question": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-16", "created_time": "2024-01-10", "confidence": 0.3781}
{"id": "d8e25383", "question": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-05", "created_time": "2024-01-15", "confidence": 0.693}
{"id": "85e1be88", "question": "Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-29", "created_time": "2024-01-16", "confidence": 0.5865}
{"id": "1accb1d3", "question": "Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-01", "created_time": "2024-01-19", "confidence": 0.6199}
{"id": "5e3851e6", "question": "What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "22", "resolution_time": "2024-04-01", "created_time": "2024-01-30", "confidence": 0.5747}
{"id": "035fd496", "question": "What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "60", "resolution_time": "2024-03-02", "created_time": "2024-02-03", "confidence": 0.6178}
{"id": "678ea456", "question": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-15", "created_time": "2024-02-06", "confidence": 0.7056}
{"id": "4fa91e72", "question": "Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-11", "created_time": "2024-02-08", "confidence": 0.3201}
{"id": "bd054361", "question": "Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-02-28", "created_time": "2024-02-09", "confidence": 0.4789}
{"id": "2a0040cd", "question": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-13", "created_time": "2024-02-14", "confidence": 0.5708}
{"id": "50cb9ff8", "question": "Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-04", "created_time": "2024-02-14", "confidence": 0.5806}
{"id": "53aab62e", "question": "Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-06", "created_time": "2024-02-21", "confidence": 0.5479}
{"id": "6bf254ba", "question": "Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-29", "created_time": "2024-02-21", "confidence": 0.7018}
{"id": "54574e8b", "question": "Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-11", "created_time": "2024-02-21", "confidence": 0.4702}
{"id": "0bb08169", "question": "Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-11", "created_time": "2024-02-23", "confidence": 0.6516}
{"id": "37c9f5d6", "question": "Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel \"M/V Rubymar\" prior to April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-02", "created_time": "2024-02-27", "confidence": 0.4918}
{"id": "00e7b816", "question": "Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2024-02-28", "confidence": 0.6076}
{"id": "d8122ef1", "question": "What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8010000000", "resolution_time": "2024-03-21", "created_time": "2024-02-29", "confidence": 0.4425}
{"id": "97206627", "question": "Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-14", "created_time": "2024-03-05", "confidence": 0.6998}
{"id": "f736bb69", "question": "Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-04-24", "created_time": "2024-03-08", "confidence": 0.5201}
{"id": "559cf7d2", "question": "What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "193", "resolution_time": "2024-04-04", "created_time": "2024-03-13", "confidence": 0.5646}
{"id": "f12c0733", "question": "What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "269", "resolution_time": "2024-04-15", "created_time": "2024-03-25", "confidence": 0.6186}
{"id": "0765eb14", "question": "What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "238", "resolution_time": "2024-04-16", "created_time": "2024-04-08", "confidence": 0.6526}
{"id": "7b65c3c8", "question": "How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "179725", "resolution_time": "2024-05-17", "created_time": "2024-04-09", "confidence": 0.4891}
{"id": "c3313311", "question": "What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "47", "resolution_time": "2024-06-21", "created_time": "2024-04-09", "confidence": 0.4718}
{"id": "e61b703f", "question": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-13", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.5949}
{"id": "0e502a33", "question": "What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States for March 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8488", "resolution_time": "2024-05-01", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.5055}
{"id": "3dc175a5", "question": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.7062}
{"id": "cb365b24", "question": "How many tornadoes will there be in the US in April 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-05-03", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.517}
{"id": "2ba94b78", "question": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-16", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.7175}
{"id": "83fdd58a", "question": "Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-03", "created_time": "2024-04-12", "confidence": 0.5014}
{"id": "ea7eb5cb", "question": "Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-14", "created_time": "2024-04-12", "confidence": 0.704}
{"id": "a38bcb73", "question": "Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-12", "confidence": 0.6358}
{"id": "e1d4803c", "question": "How many measles cases will be reported in the United States as of May 20, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "139", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-12", "confidence": 0.6775}
{"id": "d88ee09d", "question": "Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-13", "confidence": 0.6594}
{"id": "44b62248", "question": "Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-01", "created_time": "2024-04-13", "confidence": 0.6755}
{"id": "ef8591c8", "question": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-01", "created_time": "2024-04-13", "confidence": 0.6887}
{"id": "e13e8573", "question": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-15", "confidence": 0.5744}
{"id": "7a6be6e2", "question": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5018", "resolution_time": "2024-05-01", "created_time": "2024-04-15", "confidence": 0.6772}
{"id": "c47fab62", "question": "What will be the 10-year Treasury yield at close on May 20, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.6413}
{"id": "a46b6ff9", "question": "Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.707}
{"id": "229f4ceb", "question": "What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga following its premiere at Cannes?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "86", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.5891}
{"id": "cf3f59a8", "question": "Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.7251}
{"id": "497c4c14", "question": "What will be the settle price of July futures of Brent crude oil (in US dollars per barrel) for May 7, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "83", "resolution_time": "2024-05-08", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.548}
{"id": "dc48bcd1", "question": "Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-04-25", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.5619}
{"id": "0ad1d467", "question": "What will be the settle price of May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts for May 15, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "243", "resolution_time": "2024-05-16", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.641}
{"id": "0394b738", "question": "Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-04-24", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.5142}
{"id": "b8a7f183", "question": "By what percent will Rubrik's stock price change from its IPO price on its first day of trading?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "16", "resolution_time": "2024-04-25", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.611}
{"id": "deda50a2", "question": "What will be the median change in monthly household spending in the US compared to one year ago for April 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.6267}
{"id": "7a09b725", "question": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-09", "created_time": "2024-04-23", "confidence": 0.5307}
{"id": "4767cd10", "question": "When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-06-06", "resolution_time": "2024-06-06", "created_time": "2024-04-24", "confidence": 0.6041}
{"id": "352543cf", "question": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-30", "created_time": "2024-04-25", "confidence": 0.6608}
{"id": "c3fe948c", "question": "How many flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on May 18th, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "106", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-25", "confidence": 0.4495}
{"id": "78f2543e", "question": "As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-25", "confidence": 0.7106}
{"id": "d11cfc42", "question": "Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-15", "created_time": "2024-04-26", "confidence": 0.6897}
{"id": "a65a9d05", "question": "What will the global temperature anomaly be (in degrees Celsius) for April 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2024-05-14", "created_time": "2024-04-26", "confidence": 0.6029}
{"id": "5134153a", "question": "Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-29", "confidence": 0.7244}
{"id": "eb4acf14", "question": "Will there be a named Atlantic storm or hurricane before May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-29", "confidence": 0.6862}
{"id": "2a9db8f0", "question": "Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-30", "created_time": "2024-05-01", "confidence": 0.626}
{"id": "f84ac10d", "question": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-15", "created_time": "2024-05-07", "confidence": 0.6322}
{"id": "9dcc0974", "question": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-25", "created_time": "2024-05-17", "confidence": 0.698}
{"id": "e413dcd1", "question": "Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-03", "created_time": "2024-05-22", "confidence": 0.7046}
{"id": "ceb433c1", "question": "What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "20", "resolution_time": "2024-07-02", "created_time": "2024-05-22", "confidence": 0.6693}
{"id": "ab8b1203", "question": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-07", "created_time": "2024-05-23", "confidence": 0.6621}
{"id": "9f107eb0", "question": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-07", "created_time": "2024-05-23", "confidence": 0.7296}
{"id": "4cef4aea", "question": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-07-04", "created_time": "2024-05-25", "confidence": 0.6712}
{"id": "d87adb70", "question": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-28", "created_time": "2024-05-31", "confidence": 0.4309}
{"id": "79fdf273", "question": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-01", "created_time": "2024-06-12", "confidence": 0.2582}
{"id": "394dd221", "question": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-30", "created_time": "2024-06-17", "confidence": 0.553}
{"id": "1705db2d", "question": "What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "32", "resolution_time": "2024-09-16", "created_time": "2024-06-27", "confidence": 0.6544}
{"id": "8dd9a99f", "question": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-06-28", "confidence": 0.728}
{"id": "15a98514", "question": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-06-29", "confidence": 0.695}
{"id": "44e6913c", "question": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-07-15", "created_time": "2024-06-30", "confidence": 0.6839}
{"id": "b11960ca", "question": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-08-06", "created_time": "2024-06-30", "confidence": 0.7055}
{"id": "36c35a23", "question": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-08-05", "created_time": "2024-07-01", "confidence": 0.7167}
{"id": "3010cad0", "question": "What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "36", "resolution_time": "2024-09-18", "created_time": "2024-07-06", "confidence": 0.6473}
{"id": "f17c4add", "question": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-29", "created_time": "2024-07-06", "confidence": 0.3694}
{"id": "d10e1af3", "question": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-21", "created_time": "2024-07-11", "confidence": 0.4992}
{"id": "4e90929d", "question": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-07-23", "confidence": 0.7}
{"id": "bb5bd87d", "question": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-07-25", "confidence": 0.7132}
{"id": "813b19e4", "question": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-01", "created_time": "2024-07-30", "confidence": 0.7292}
{"id": "226bcd1f", "question": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-04", "created_time": "2024-07-31", "confidence": 0.6761}
{"id": "2a7bad42", "question": "Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-20", "created_time": "2024-08-05", "confidence": 0.726}
{"id": "f8710fa2", "question": "What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "118", "resolution_time": "2024-10-08", "created_time": "2024-08-05", "confidence": 0.4472}
{"id": "7bc08f6c", "question": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-10-02", "created_time": "2024-08-06", "confidence": 0.6426}
{"id": "93089329", "question": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-12", "confidence": 0.7249}
{"id": "f71ab09e", "question": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-16", "confidence": 0.6785}
{"id": "ef3bdb5e", "question": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-09-11", "created_time": "2024-08-26", "confidence": 0.7188}
{"id": "a1f540b3", "question": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-27", "confidence": 0.7172}
{"id": "94cab0bd", "question": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-09-11", "created_time": "2024-08-27", "confidence": 0.4437}
{"id": "a9f2f571", "question": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-27", "confidence": 0.7217}
{"id": "f4a978b9", "question": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-10-08", "created_time": "2024-08-29", "confidence": 0.4909}
{"id": "119857b8", "question": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-09-03", "confidence": 0.7122}
{"id": "f81be422", "question": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-09-07", "confidence": 0.7112}
{"id": "4abf5a5d", "question": "What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "29", "resolution_time": "2024-10-03", "created_time": "2024-09-08", "confidence": 0.6398}
{"id": "afd8cfda", "question": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-07", "created_time": "2024-09-09", "confidence": 0.5882}
{"id": "84bbef04", "question": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-09-14", "confidence": 0.7157}
{"id": "e6239d91", "question": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-09-16", "confidence": 0.6561}
{"id": "d7104107", "question": "What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3407", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-09-26", "confidence": 0.6358}
{"id": "281d4716", "question": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-09-28", "confidence": 0.5597}
{"id": "045c109e", "question": "Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-31", "created_time": "2024-09-29", "confidence": 0.7202}
{"id": "44490c42", "question": "Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-10-03", "confidence": 0.7275}
{"id": "6720b158", "question": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-10-04", "confidence": 0.229}
{"id": "bf40906d", "question": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-26", "created_time": "2024-10-08", "confidence": 0.705}
{"id": "64cdfa0b", "question": "Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-01", "created_time": "2024-10-11", "confidence": 0.6915}
{"id": "da17e48b", "question": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-10-11", "confidence": 0.7058}
{"id": "d1e1bb04", "question": "How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "10", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2024-10-12", "confidence": 0.5758}
{"id": "dec2e6d2", "question": "Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-10-15", "confidence": 0.7061}
{"id": "30b2b9de", "question": "Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2024-10-15", "confidence": 0.6724}
{"id": "7d533a55", "question": "How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-12-20", "created_time": "2024-10-22", "confidence": 0.664}
{"id": "43e68f80", "question": "How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "282", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-10-22", "confidence": 0.5431}
{"id": "55086f45", "question": "By how many billion USD will Elon Musk's net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-05", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "dc4b0495", "question": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2024-11-11", "confidence": 0.7013}
{"id": "474f4e0d", "question": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-13", "created_time": "2024-11-12", "confidence": 0.2535}
{"id": "0bbfead6", "question": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-03", "created_time": "2024-11-19", "confidence": 0.0548}
{"id": "10e11512", "question": "What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-1", "resolution_time": "2024-12-27", "created_time": "2024-11-25", "confidence": 0.5917}
{"id": "742ef9b0", "question": "How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "219", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2024-11-25", "confidence": 0.6018}
{"id": "c88683d9", "question": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-26", "confidence": 0.5459}
{"id": "7628c01f", "question": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-20", "created_time": "2024-11-26", "confidence": 0.5332}
{"id": "37ebbdc9", "question": "Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-12-03", "confidence": 0.5825}
{"id": "85b06fed", "question": "Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-12-10", "confidence": 0.6911}
{"id": "4bd363e2", "question": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-24", "created_time": "2024-12-19", "confidence": 0.6654}
{"id": "0cce0ece", "question": "How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2025-01-28", "created_time": "2025-01-08", "confidence": 0.5889}