analysis/paired_gaps.csv

run_key,label,family,canonical,shot,clean_accuracy,deranged_accuracy,clean_minus_deranged,paired_task_se,task_bootstrap_ci95_low,task_bootstrap_ci95_high
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,1,0.1284375,0.1284375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,2,0.155390625,0.14796875,0.007421875,0.003661652302073691,0.0003125,0.014375
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,4,0.16859375,0.147265625,0.021328125,0.004424791909216457,0.013125,0.03015625
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,8,0.191015625,0.14625,0.044765625,0.007123028777413251,0.031404296875,0.059296875
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,16,0.233671875,0.15390625,0.079765625,0.010984350753238465,0.059296875,0.10203125
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,32,0.268671875,0.158203125,0.11046875,0.014259726309738966,0.08366992187500001,0.13921875
qwen3,Qwen3 14B,qwen3,True,64,0.299609375,0.16078125,0.138828125,0.016169434958408745,0.108359375,0.171171875
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,1,0.128203125,0.128203125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,2,0.155546875,0.145859375,0.0096875,0.0036997501323287585,0.00234375,0.016796875
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,4,0.179921875,0.1553125,0.024609375,0.004711605474591518,0.015625,0.033984375
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,8,0.215234375,0.1625,0.052734375,0.005961597787592605,0.04140625,0.064609375
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,16,0.238203125,0.155703125,0.0825,0.00785367935149256,0.06765625,0.098125
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,32,0.275546875,0.14828125,0.127265625,0.010970310073342114,0.106171875,0.149375
evo2,Evo2 40B,evo2,True,64,0.33234375,0.152265625,0.180078125,0.015169893158485576,0.15046875,0.210234375
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,1,0.091796875,0.091796875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,2,0.14921875,0.122734375,0.026484375,0.008083902440866866,0.0125,0.043828125
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,4,0.198671875,0.1396875,0.058984375,0.013055529058426666,0.03625,0.086015625
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,8,0.257734375,0.15203125,0.105703125,0.01793129708711792,0.072966796875,0.142890625
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,16,0.338671875,0.161875,0.176796875,0.02492582286817782,0.130234375,0.2278125
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,32,0.41234375,0.16484375,0.2475,0.029039962546737363,0.19312304687499998,0.30461132812499997
nextterm,NextTerm 440M,nextterm,True,64,0.48125,0.1671875,0.3140625,0.03119293242549933,0.255625,0.3759375
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,1,0.19234375,0.19234375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,2,0.271171875,0.1784375,0.092734375,0.01441651365566791,0.0659375,0.12234570312499997
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,4,0.348828125,0.18203125,0.166796875,0.023358023655213077,0.122654296875,0.21429882812499998
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,8,0.38890625,0.183203125,0.205703125,0.026359344313748135,0.156009765625,0.25875
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,16,0.41453125,0.1884375,0.22609375,0.028982359535074574,0.171875,0.28297070312499994
imagegpt,ImageGPT large,imagegpt,True,31,0.435,0.182578125,0.252421875,0.03010134344231232,0.194607421875,0.313205078125
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,1,0.108671875,0.1084375,0.000234375,0.00013394266249825413,0.0,0.000546875
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,2,0.170546875,0.14328125,0.027265625,0.005906658961510703,0.016015625,0.03890625
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,4,0.209375,0.15671875,0.05265625,0.007226798172174064,0.038828125,0.06718945312499996
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,8,0.245625,0.150546875,0.095078125,0.010394777546094806,0.075234375,0.116328125
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,16,0.28421875,0.1425,0.14171875,0.013754438204176133,0.11562304687500001,0.16921875
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,24,0.300625,0.141484375,0.159140625,0.01522598755771844,0.12921679687499998,0.1896875
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,32,0.307109375,0.140390625,0.16671875,0.01555707299343633,0.136640625,0.1978125
timesfm,TimesFM 2.5 200M,timesfm,True,48,0.325703125,0.140234375,0.18546875,0.01765869407415712,0.151171875,0.2203125
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,1,0.124609375,0.124609375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,2,0.13734375,0.126953125,0.010390625,0.003856301556041753,0.00296875,0.01796875
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,4,0.166640625,0.148203125,0.0184375,0.005168550716481206,0.008515625,0.02859375
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,8,0.19453125,0.1525,0.04203125,0.005272778379590572,0.031796875,0.052578125
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,16,0.219140625,0.157421875,0.06171875,0.007620348468388549,0.04741992187500001,0.076796875
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,32,0.249765625,0.15859375,0.091171875,0.009508891720940695,0.072576171875,0.110078125
progen2,ProGen2 base,progen2,True,48,0.26421875,0.165078125,0.099140625,0.008897021262985094,0.082265625,0.116953125
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,1,0.133125,0.133125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,2,0.1434375,0.1465625,-0.003125,0.0040159777951969755,-0.011171875,0.004375
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,4,0.1553125,0.1484375,0.006875,0.003399555266516638,0.00015625,0.0134375
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,8,0.1578125,0.140703125,0.017109375,0.004624864297678164,0.00828125,0.02609375
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,16,0.161484375,0.124296875,0.0371875,0.007429135702870603,0.023671875,0.05234375
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,32,0.177421875,0.123984375,0.0534375,0.00866107979342826,0.037263671875,0.07125
qwen3_0_6b,Qwen3 0.6B,qwen3,False,64,0.2040625,0.12609375,0.07796875,0.009897066809091021,0.059140625,0.097109375
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,1,0.128515625,0.128515625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,2,0.150390625,0.147734375,0.00265625,0.0048008445125268945,-0.006796875,0.011875
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,4,0.156640625,0.143828125,0.0128125,0.004033624066030523,0.005,0.020703125
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,8,0.16765625,0.141484375,0.026171875,0.005804403327787888,0.015546875,0.037578125
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,16,0.190625,0.145390625,0.045234375,0.008290532099122746,0.029998046875,0.061953125
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,32,0.211640625,0.151171875,0.06046875,0.00993104530781802,0.041875,0.080390625
qwen3_1_7b,Qwen3 1.7B,qwen3,False,64,0.247109375,0.155,0.092109375,0.013748284855580004,0.066951171875,0.121015625
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,1,0.136484375,0.136484375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,2,0.149453125,0.1459375,0.003515625,0.0037939589282118395,-0.00375,0.0109375
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,4,0.167421875,0.14734375,0.020078125,0.004342375597820183,0.011640625,0.028439453124999972
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,8,0.17546875,0.13125,0.04421875,0.007828440177681011,0.02984375,0.060390625
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,16,0.194375,0.140703125,0.053671875,0.010716365170211963,0.03359375,0.07609375
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,32,0.232734375,0.1521875,0.080546875,0.012372442897697553,0.05765625,0.10578125
qwen3_4b,Qwen3 4B,qwen3,False,64,0.26484375,0.16046875,0.104375,0.015125181305783683,0.076640625,0.13468945312499997
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,1,0.143046875,0.143046875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,2,0.1571875,0.14921875,0.00796875,0.004431926940358079,-0.000546875,0.01695507812499997
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,4,0.1578125,0.1375,0.0203125,0.004947293621059882,0.010703125,0.03015625
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,8,0.176875,0.13046875,0.04640625,0.007266104408806118,0.03304492187500001,0.061015625
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,16,0.216953125,0.140234375,0.07671875,0.013095609152985308,0.052421875,0.103984375
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,32,0.258203125,0.145859375,0.11234375,0.014743430941221266,0.084529296875,0.141875
qwen3_8b,Qwen3 8B,qwen3,False,64,0.30078125,0.161640625,0.139140625,0.01640030969598473,0.10921875,0.173361328125
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,1,0.12578125,0.12578125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,2,0.152578125,0.1425,0.010078125,0.0030618118396849767,0.0040625,0.016015625
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,4,0.166796875,0.15109375,0.015703125,0.004109298185517046,0.007578125,0.023671875
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,8,0.196640625,0.16265625,0.033984375,0.005283985370979561,0.023984375,0.044453125
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,16,0.217890625,0.165625,0.052265625,0.005506045043351251,0.0415625,0.063203125
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,32,0.247109375,0.164453125,0.08265625,0.0076192804606475175,0.06796875,0.097890625
evo2_1b_base,Evo2 1B base,evo2,False,64,0.28140625,0.173203125,0.108203125,0.009368010204676227,0.0903125,0.126640625
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,1,0.129453125,0.129453125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,2,0.155546875,0.146796875,0.00875,0.0038164876066240734,0.001171875,0.016171875
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,4,0.184296875,0.152578125,0.03171875,0.004561949729858115,0.022890625,0.04078125
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,8,0.216015625,0.158984375,0.05703125,0.006802174694267885,0.04375,0.0703125
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,16,0.2421875,0.1528125,0.089375,0.00830318290976905,0.07390625,0.105859375
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,32,0.282265625,0.151640625,0.130625,0.011661042678551952,0.1078125,0.153984375
evo2_7b,Evo2 7B,evo2,False,64,0.345,0.152578125,0.192421875,0.016706810895060188,0.159451171875,0.225390625
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,1,0.09671875,0.09671875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,2,0.14265625,0.112421875,0.030234375,0.008800146455132812,0.0153125,0.049375
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,4,0.186015625,0.130390625,0.055625,0.014174410901347984,0.03015625,0.08515625
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,8,0.2296875,0.1390625,0.090625,0.01741236909154095,0.058826171875000006,0.125236328125
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,16,0.264453125,0.144765625,0.1196875,0.019840785838027043,0.083203125,0.16046875
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,32,0.216796875,0.147734375,0.0690625,0.012942339162316224,0.045544921875000005,0.096171875
nextterm_47m,NextTerm 47M,nextterm,False,64,0.1471875,0.132578125,0.014609375,0.004185349626425847,0.00671875,0.023046875
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,1,0.186328125,0.186328125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,2,0.23734375,0.176796875,0.060546875,0.009477927590303649,0.0428125,0.079765625
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,4,0.293125,0.179609375,0.113515625,0.015275629682477268,0.084685546875,0.143984375
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,8,0.320703125,0.18515625,0.135546875,0.018428755510125707,0.101171875,0.17234765624999993
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,16,0.3415625,0.187734375,0.153828125,0.02102061154744924,0.11445117187500001,0.196328125
imagegpt_small,ImageGPT small,imagegpt,False,31,0.351875,0.182578125,0.169296875,0.02259127170899785,0.1275,0.2159375
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,1,0.1890625,0.1890625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,2,0.27,0.17875,0.09125,0.013880201670786959,0.06609179687500001,0.118984375
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,4,0.336953125,0.1815625,0.155390625,0.02176505984731122,0.114763671875,0.199375
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,8,0.378671875,0.18234375,0.196328125,0.024935220038540325,0.1496875,0.2459375
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,16,0.4078125,0.188203125,0.219609375,0.028267974266661295,0.16546875,0.27617578125
imagegpt_medium,ImageGPT medium,imagegpt,False,31,0.42203125,0.18484375,0.2371875,0.028981232089871013,0.181794921875,0.294609375
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,1,0.116484375,0.116484375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,2,0.127578125,0.12015625,0.007421875,0.0034304173332145665,0.000625,0.014140625
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,4,0.153125,0.13359375,0.01953125,0.004707842014791636,0.01015625,0.028671875
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,8,0.178203125,0.1440625,0.034140625,0.004713280065568308,0.025076171875,0.043515625
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,16,0.192890625,0.14609375,0.046796875,0.005437087045665183,0.036328125,0.057265625
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,32,0.204921875,0.1496875,0.055234375,0.006865106194450276,0.04171875,0.06875
progen2_small,ProGen2 small,progen2,False,48,0.208671875,0.158046875,0.050625,0.005189929606283868,0.040546875,0.06078125
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,1,0.11796875,0.11796875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,2,0.1303125,0.121640625,0.008671875,0.00436311149651588,0.000234375,0.017265625
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,4,0.1559375,0.139296875,0.016640625,0.004439814303943779,0.007732421875000002,0.025234375
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,8,0.17859375,0.143046875,0.035546875,0.004980052886059367,0.02578125,0.045078125
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,16,0.2,0.14578125,0.05421875,0.006883549694165462,0.04109375,0.067734375
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,32,0.22234375,0.1484375,0.07390625,0.00830399962675435,0.05796875,0.09008007812499996
progen2_medium,ProGen2 medium,progen2,False,48,0.22640625,0.155859375,0.070546875,0.007136518211533849,0.056875,0.084609375
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,1,0.127265625,0.127265625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,2,0.139296875,0.1303125,0.008984375,0.004045612176706001,0.00109375,0.01671875
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,4,0.1565625,0.143984375,0.012578125,0.004135320954830881,0.004375,0.02046875
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,8,0.178046875,0.15203125,0.026015625,0.003963524245372456,0.01828125,0.033671875
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,16,0.191015625,0.151796875,0.03921875,0.005410357448830545,0.028671875,0.049453125
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,32,0.19484375,0.1503125,0.04453125,0.006526495296998415,0.031873046875000005,0.057578125
progen2_large,ProGen2 large,progen2,False,48,0.20171875,0.15109375,0.050625,0.005953427600079969,0.03890625,0.06234375
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,1,0.119140625,0.119140625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,2,0.123671875,0.11703125,0.006640625,0.003670061205792263,-0.000546875,0.013671875
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,4,0.145234375,0.130703125,0.01453125,0.004359047168713096,0.006015625,0.023125
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,8,0.156171875,0.136015625,0.02015625,0.004156563271401828,0.012185546875000001,0.02828125
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,16,0.167421875,0.1346875,0.032734375,0.004313086383699179,0.02453125,0.04125
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,32,0.186484375,0.14796875,0.038515625,0.00579045110520209,0.027421875,0.05
progen2_xlarge,ProGen2 xlarge,progen2,False,48,0.20234375,0.151171875,0.051171875,0.004978814759895398,0.04171875,0.061015625
chessgpt,ChessGPT 50M,chessgpt,False,1,0.09234375,0.09234375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
chessgpt,ChessGPT 50M,chessgpt,False,2,0.097578125,0.093046875,0.00453125,0.003937188088896502,-0.003203125,0.012501953124999972
chessgpt,ChessGPT 50M,chessgpt,False,4,0.1159375,0.1146875,0.00125,0.0035563282753097577,-0.005470703124999998,0.0084375
chessgpt,ChessGPT 50M,chessgpt,False,8,0.171796875,0.173359375,-0.0015625,0.004575686630871852,-0.0103125,0.00734375
musicroll,MusicRoll 50M,musicroll,False,2,0.17,0.170546875,-0.000546875,0.0034302016616909606,-0.007265625,0.006015625
musicroll,MusicRoll 50M,musicroll,False,4,0.17875,0.17765625,0.00109375,0.0037261512800398243,-0.006171875,0.008359375
musicroll,MusicRoll 50M,musicroll,False,8,0.178359375,0.17296875,0.005390625,0.00407040648399124,-0.002421875,0.01328125
musicroll,MusicRoll 50M,musicroll,False,16,0.169453125,0.1665625,0.002890625,0.003653696539395225,-0.004140625,0.01
musicroll,MusicRoll 50M,musicroll,False,32,0.173203125,0.1625,0.010703125,0.0038732109725455473,0.00328125,0.0184375