# Backtest Run Inventory

All backtest runs referenced anywhere in the paper, grouped by experiment.

Run artifacts live under `<repo_root>/reports/backtest/<run_id>/` and contain:

- `metrics.json` — summary metrics (total_return, max_drawdown, sharpe_ratio, total_trades, avg_position_days, avg_cash_ratio, avg_gross_exposure, value_filter_pass_rate, etc.)
- `trades.csv` — per-trade log (date, ticker, action, shares, price, value, justification)
- `equity_curve.csv` — daily portfolio time series (date, total_value, daily_return, cashflow=cash_balance, benchmark_value, benchmark_return)
- `backtest_report.md` — human-readable summary

Multi-mandate comparison bundles live under `<repo_root>/reports/multi_personality/<bundle>/` and contain:

- `comparison_data.json` — mapping from mandate key to its run ID, return, MDD, trade count, and aggregated metrics
- `comparison_report.md` — human-readable summary
- `personality_summary.csv` — flat CSV summary

## Experiment 1 — Six-month main case study (the headline result)

| Mandate | US run (Sep 1 2025 – Feb 28 2026, 124 trading days) | CN run (Sep 1 2025 – Feb 28 2026, 102 trading days) |
|---|---|---|
| Fundamental Value | `mp_fundamental_value_20260409_165131_876468` | `mp_fundamental_value_20260413_163905_878961` |
| Macro Tactical | `mp_macro_tactical_20260409_165131_876505` | `mp_macro_tactical_20260413_163905_878979` |
| Behavioral Momentum | `mp_behavioral_momentum_20260409_165131_876499` | `mp_behavioral_momentum_20260413_163905_878974` |
| Low-Volatility (Smart Beta) | `mp_smart_beta_passive_20260409_165131_876510` | `mp_smart_beta_passive_20260413_163905_878984` |
| Equal-Weight (Baseline) | `mp_equal_weight_index_20260409_165131_876514` | `mp_equal_weight_index_20260413_163905_878987` |

- **US comparison bundle:** `multi_personality/20260409_165121_176781/`
- **CN comparison bundle:** `multi_personality/20260413_163854_715331/`
- **Initial capital:** $100,000 (each market)
- **Universe:** 20 tickers per market on a 5×4 sector/style grid (Appendix Table~\ref{tab:sector_style_universe})
- **Backend:** DeepSeek-V3.2

## Experiment 2 — Full-run reproducibility (US 6M, Run 2)

Independent re-run of all five US 6M mandates with identical configuration to Experiment 1.

| Mandate | US Run 2 |
|---|---|
| Fundamental Value | `mp_fundamental_value_20260425_035029_413185` |
| Macro Tactical | `mp_macro_tactical_20260425_035029_413208` |
| Behavioral Momentum | `mp_behavioral_momentum_20260425_035029_413202` |
| Low-Volatility (Smart Beta) | `mp_smart_beta_passive_20260425_035029_413212` |
| Equal-Weight (Baseline) | `mp_equal_weight_index_20260425_035029_413216` |

## Experiment 3 — US 3M mechanism ablation (Dec 1 2025 – Feb 28 2026)

Each LLM-conditioned mandate has a Full variant (full doctrine) and one
Ablated variant (a single guardrail removed).

| Mandate / variant | Run ID |
|---|---|
| Fundamental Value — Full | `20260417_160942` |
| Fundamental Value — No filter | `20260417_191443` |
| Behavioral Momentum — Full | `20260417_220721` |
| Behavioral Momentum — No guardrails | `20260418_004927` |
| Macro Tactical — Full | `20260418_033940` |
| Macro Tactical — No tilt | `20260418_072633` |
| Low-Volatility — Reference | `20260418_110947` |
| Equal-Weight — Reference | `20260418_111210` |

## Experiment 4 — US 3M backend robustness (GPT-5.4 replacement)

Same 3M window as Experiment 3, but the reasoning backend swapped from
DeepSeek-V3.2 to GPT-5.4 while every other component is held fixed.

| Mandate | GPT-5.4 run |
|---|---|
| Fundamental Value | `20260423_124148` |
| Macro Tactical | `20260424_094955` |
| Behavioral Momentum | `20260424_132728_372104` |
| Low-Volatility | `20260424_094956` |
| Equal-Weight | `20260424_132723_271683` |

These per-run metrics are also aggregated into
`derived/gpt54_robustness/backend_comparison.csv`, which is what the
`generate_backend_robustness_figure.py` script consumes.

## Experiment 5 — Execution efficiency ablation (CN, 10 tickers, 6M)

Three execution paths (E0/E1/E2) on a fixed business setting (10 CN
tickers, multi-mandate, Sep 1 2025 – Feb 28 2026), used only to
demonstrate runtime/cost reductions enabled by shared phase-one
preprocessing and warm artifact caching.

| Path | Run ID | Wall-clock |
|---|---|---|
| E0 (baseline) | `20260308_032534_600248` | 43.73 h |
| E1 (optimized cold-cache) | `20260308_164113_268847` | 10.79 h |
| E2 (optimized warm-cache) | `20260309_120759_016922` | 10.82 h |

Source doc: `docs/2026-03-23-cn-10tickers-6m-efficiency-ablation.md`.