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43eb59c | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 | forecaster,forecast_date,horizon_year,scope,metric,unit,value_low,value_high,revised_value,revised_date,transparency,verified,source,notes
IEA,2025,2030,Global,demand,TWh,946,946,,,open,yes,IEA Energy&AI annex World Data r24,Base Case (2024=416); IEA OWN 2030 scenarios span 669 Headwinds-1264 Lift-Off; quoted 945 is base-case-only
Gartner,2025-11,2030,Global,demand,TWh,980,980,,,opaque,yes,Gartner newsroom press release 2025-11-17,CONFIRMED 448 TWh(2025)->980(2030) Global; AI servers 93->432 TWh; transparency=opaque means model proprietary/not reproducible (release is free but unauditable)
McKinsey,2024,2030,US,demand,TWh,606,606,,,opaque,yes,McKinsey "How data centers...sate AI's hunger for power" (17 Sep 2024) + "AI's power binge" charts (6 Nov 2024),CONFIRMED at McKinsey primary: 147(2023/3.7%)->224(2025/5.2%)->606(2030/11.7%); medium scenario full yr-by-yr; ~23% CAGR; figure PRIMARY but model proprietary/not reproducible
LBNL,2024,2028,US,demand,TWh,325,580,,,open,yes,LBNL 2024 US Data Center Energy Usage Report (Shehabi et al; eta-publications.lbl.gov),325-580 TWh = 6.7-12% of US elec in 2028 NOT 2030 (common misquote; CSV year corrected 2026-06-06); 2023 actual=176 TWh/4.4%; the US-govt anchor
EPRI,2024,2030,US,demand,TWh,200,400,,,open,yes,EPRI Powering Intelligence (May 2024; restservice.epri.com),PRIMARY UNIT is % not TWh: scenarios 4.6/5.0/6.8/9.1% of US elec by 2030 (TWh DERIVED/approx); EPRI 2026 ed REVISED UP to 9-17% by 2030 (~+60%) = self-revision datapoint
BCG,2024,2030,US,demand,TWh,1050,1050,,,opaque,no,via WRI (NOT the in-hand BCG PDF),CHECKED in-folder BCG "Infrastructure Strategy 2026" p20: gives only a GROWTH RATE (compute demand high-teens pct/yr to 2030 vs hist 11-12pct) NOT 1050 TWh; the 1050 is from a SEPARATE paywalled BCG study -> stays opaque/unverified
GoldmanSachs,2025-02,2030,Global,growth,pct_vs_2023,165,165,220,2026-04,opaque,yes,Goldman Sachs (Feb 2025 "165% by 2030" -> GS SUSTAIN Nov 2025 "175%" -> Apr 2026 "~220%"),CONFIRMED DOUBLE up-revision 165->175->220 pct vs2023 (all primary GS); ~1350 TWh global equiv per secondary; model proprietary
SP_Global,2025,2030,US,demand,TWh,728,728,,,secondary,yes,S&P Global 451 Research Market Monitor (Sep 2025; spglobal.com news),base 366 TWh(2025)->728(2030) US; HYPERSCALE/LEASED/CRYPTO ONLY (excl enterprise=scope caveat); also 61.8->134.4 GW; "nearly triple" is GW-from-2024 (~2x in TWh) - unit nuance
BloombergNEF,2025-04,2035,US,capacity,GW,78,78,106,2025-12,secondary,yes,BNEF "AI and the Power Grid" (1 Dec 2025; via Utility Dive/Bloomberg),REVISED UP 78(Apr25)->106(Dec25) GW =+36% in 7mo; 2035 horizon + GW (not TWh); BNEF calls 106 CONSERVATIVE vs GS/BCG/McKinsey; TX 12GW early-stage only 1.8GW location-confirmed (speculative)
McKinsey,2024,2030,Global,capacity,GW,220,220,,,opaque,yes,McKinsey "Scaling bigger faster cheaper data centers" (Exhibit 2),GLOBAL ~220 GW by 2030 (capacity); SAME forecaster reports US in TWh (606) but GLOBAL in GW = intra-forecaster unit-switch; NOT directly comparable to IEA/Gartner global-TWh (no clean conversion)
Deloitte,2025,2030,Global,demand,TWh,1065,1065,,,secondary,yes,Deloitte 2025 TMT Predictions,536 TWh(2025/~2pct)->1065(2030/~4pct); scenario range ~1000-1300; built on EIA IEO-2023 base + named sources (validated) = methodology sketched (more transparent than peer consultancies)
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