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<diagram id="uma-ai-v1" name="UMA What Predicts What">
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<mxCell id="title" value="<b>Minimal UMA Decision-Time Evaluation: What Predicts What?</b>" style="text;html=1;strokeColor=none;fillColor=none;align=left;verticalAlign=middle;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=29;fontColor=#0F172A;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="48" y="25" width="1200" height="45" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="subtitle" value="A conditional protocol-outcome benchmark with frozen inputs, explicit abstention, and a hard label boundary" style="text;html=1;strokeColor=none;fillColor=none;align=left;verticalAlign=middle;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=16;fontColor=#475569;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="48" y="70" width="1200" height="28" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
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<mxCell id="f1" value="<b>Capital + timing</b><br>bond · fee · configured reward<br>liveness · proposal latency" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#ECFDF5;strokeColor=#0F766E;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=14;fontColor=#134E4A;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="434" y="218" width="302" height="92" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
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<mxCell id="split" value="<b>Chronological 60 / 20 / 20</b><br>train 489 · validation 161<br>held-out test 160" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#EFF6FF;strokeColor=#2563EB;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=15;fontColor=#1E3A8A;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="824" y="224" width="282" height="105" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="model" value="<b>Interpretable baseline</b><br>one-hot + standardized features<br>fixed logistic regression" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#EFF6FF;strokeColor=#2563EB;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=15;fontColor=#1E3A8A;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="824" y="360" width="282" height="105" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="prob" value="<b>Predicts</b><br>P(protocol later rejects proposal<br>| selected cohort, t<sub>i</sub> evidence)" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#EEF2FF;strokeColor=#7C3AED;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=14;fontColor=#4C1D95;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="824" y="496" width="282" height="80" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
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<mxCell id="actions" value="<b>Four actions</b><br><font color="#166534">Accept</font> · <font color="#92400E">Investigate</font> · <font color="#991B1B">Challenge</font> · <font color="#4C1D95">Abstain</font><br>pre-registered probability regions" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#F5F3FF;strokeColor=#7C3AED;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=15;fontColor=#4C1D95;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="1194" y="218" width="342" height="105" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="record" value="<b>Per-decision record</b><br>action · probability · confidence<br>explanation · evidence IDs<br>abstention reason · scope" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#F5F3FF;strokeColor=#7C3AED;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=14;fontColor=#4C1D95;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="1194" y="344" width="342" height="105" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
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<mxCell id="label" value="<b>Later outcome label</b><br>proposal_rejected_by_protocol · DVM resolution · settlement records" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#FEF2F2;strokeColor=#DC2626;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=15;fontColor=#991B1B;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="630" y="654" width="350" height="92" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="forbidden" value="<b>Forbidden as model inputs</b><br>dispute/resolution/settlement time · resolved price · payout · terminal outcome · label" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#FFFFFF;strokeColor=#DC2626;strokeWidth=2;dashed=1;dashPattern=6 4;align=left;spacingLeft=16;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=14;fontColor=#991B1B;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="230" y="654" width="350" height="92" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="boundary" value="<b>Interpretation boundary</b><br>The target is a later UMA protocol resolution—not independent factual truth and not a causal estimate of an optimal challenge policy." style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=8;fillColor=#FEF2F2;strokeColor=#DC2626;strokeWidth=2;align=left;spacingLeft=18;spacingRight=18;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=15;fontColor=#991B1B;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="1030" y="654" width="500" height="92" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
<mxCell id="footer" value="<b>Evidence grammar:</b>&nbsp; green = decision-time features &nbsp;·&nbsp; blue = frozen estimation &nbsp;·&nbsp; purple = decision outputs &nbsp;·&nbsp; red = post-decision labels and limitations" style="rounded=1;whiteSpace=wrap;html=1;arcSize=6;fillColor=#FFFFFF;strokeColor=#CBD5E1;strokeWidth=1.5;align=center;fontFamily=Arial;fontSize=14;fontColor=#334155;" vertex="1" parent="1"><mxGeometry x="40" y="790" width="1520" height="58" as="geometry"/></mxCell>
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