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text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 264px; height: 1px; padding-top: 413px; margin-left: 82px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #312E81; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(49, 46, 129); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>810 challenged cases</b><br />Grade-A cross-chain link<br />price-consistent · flow-exact</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="82" y="417" fill="#312E81" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">810 challenged cases...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="selection"><g><rect x="64" y="496" width="282" height="80" rx="6.4" ry="6.4" fill="#fef2f2" stroke="#dc2626" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 250px; height: 1px; padding-top: 536px; margin-left: 82px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #991B1B; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 27, 27); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Selection warning</b><br />The cohort conditions on actual disputes. It does not estimate the value of challenging all proposals.</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="82" y="540" fill="#991B1B" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Selection warning...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="p2"><g><rect x="410" y="130" width="350" height="470" rx="14" ry="14" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#cbd5e1" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g></g><g data-cell-id="h2"><g><rect x="426" y="148" width="318" height="46" rx="3.68" ry="3.68" fill="#0f766e" stroke="#0f766e" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 300px; height: 1px; padding-top: 171px; margin-left: 444px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #FFFFFF; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>2 · Inputs available at decision time</b></div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="444" y="176" fill="#FFFFFF" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="16px">2 · Inputs available at decision time</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="f1"><g><rect x="434" y="218" width="302" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#ecfdf5" stroke="#0f766e" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 284px; height: 1px; padding-top: 264px; margin-left: 452px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #134E4A; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(19, 78, 74); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Capital + timing</b><br />bond · fee · configured reward<br />liveness · proposal latency</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="452" y="268" fill="#134E4A" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Capital + timing...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="f2"><g><rect x="434" y="332" width="302" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#ecfdf5" stroke="#0f766e" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 284px; height: 1px; padding-top: 378px; margin-left: 452px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #134E4A; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(19, 78, 74); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Request + adapter context</b><br />ancillary bytes · price class<br />Polymarket adapter · version</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="452" y="382" fill="#134E4A" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Request + adapter context...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="f3"><g><rect x="434" y="446" width="302" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#ecfdf5" stroke="#0f766e" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 284px; height: 1px; padding-top: 492px; margin-left: 452px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #134E4A; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(19, 78, 74); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Strictly lagged history</b><br />prior completed · dispute rate<br />rejection rate for actors</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="452" y="496" fill="#134E4A" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Strictly lagged history...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="timestamp"><g><rect x="450" y="552" width="270" height="30" rx="12" ry="12" fill="#f0fdfa" stroke="#5eead4" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe center; width: 268px; height: 1px; padding-top: 567px; margin-left: 451px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #115E59; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: center;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 13px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(17, 94, 89); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; font-weight: bold; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;">All evidence timestamps ≤ proposal time</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="585" y="571" fill="#115E59" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="13px" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold">All evidence timestamps ≤ proposal time</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="p3"><g><rect x="800" y="130" width="330" height="470" rx="13.2" ry="13.2" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#cbd5e1" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g></g><g data-cell-id="h3"><g><rect x="816" y="148" width="298" height="46" rx="3.68" ry="3.68" fill="#1d4ed8" stroke="#1d4ed8" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 280px; height: 1px; padding-top: 171px; margin-left: 834px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #FFFFFF; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>3 · Frozen evaluation procedure</b></div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="834" y="176" fill="#FFFFFF" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="16px">3 · Frozen evaluation procedure</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="split"><g><rect x="824" y="224" width="282" height="105" rx="8.4" ry="8.4" fill="#eff6ff" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 264px; height: 1px; padding-top: 277px; margin-left: 842px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #1E3A8A; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(30, 58, 138); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Chronological 60 / 20 / 20</b><br />train 489 · validation 161<br />held-out test 160</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="842" y="281" fill="#1E3A8A" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">Chronological 60 / 20 / 20...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="model"><g><rect x="824" y="360" width="282" height="105" rx="8.4" ry="8.4" fill="#eff6ff" stroke="#2563eb" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 264px; height: 1px; padding-top: 413px; margin-left: 842px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #1E3A8A; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(30, 58, 138); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Interpretable baseline</b><br />one-hot + standardized features<br />fixed logistic regression</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="842" y="417" fill="#1E3A8A" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">Interpretable baseline...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="prob"><g><rect x="824" y="496" width="282" height="80" rx="6.4" ry="6.4" fill="#eef2ff" stroke="#7c3aed" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 264px; height: 1px; padding-top: 536px; margin-left: 842px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #4C1D95; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(76, 29, 149); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Predicts</b><br />P(protocol later rejects proposal<br />| selected cohort, t<sub>i</sub> evidence)</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="842" y="540" fill="#4C1D95" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Predicts...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="p4"><g><rect x="1170" y="130" width="390" height="470" rx="15.6" ry="15.6" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#cbd5e1" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g></g><g data-cell-id="h4"><g><rect x="1186" y="148" width="358" height="46" rx="3.68" ry="3.68" fill="#6d28d9" stroke="#6d28d9" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 340px; height: 1px; padding-top: 171px; margin-left: 1204px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #FFFFFF; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 16px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>4 · Auditable decision + evaluation</b></div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="1204" y="176" fill="#FFFFFF" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="16px">4 · Auditable decision + evaluation</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="actions"><g><rect x="1194" y="218" width="342" height="105" rx="8.4" ry="8.4" fill="#f5f3ff" stroke="#7c3aed" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 324px; height: 1px; padding-top: 271px; margin-left: 1212px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #4C1D95; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(76, 29, 149); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Four actions</b><br /><font color="#166534">Accept</font> · <font color="#92400E">Investigate</font> · <font color="#991B1B">Challenge</font> · <font color="#4C1D95">Abstain</font><br />pre-registered probability regions</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="1212" y="275" fill="#4C1D95" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">Four actions...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="record"><g><rect x="1194" y="344" width="342" height="105" rx="8.4" ry="8.4" fill="#f5f3ff" stroke="#7c3aed" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 324px; height: 1px; padding-top: 397px; margin-left: 1212px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #4C1D95; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(76, 29, 149); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Per-decision record</b><br />action · probability · confidence<br />explanation · evidence IDs<br />abstention reason · scope</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="1212" y="401" fill="#4C1D95" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Per-decision record...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="evaluate"><g><rect x="1194" y="470" width="342" height="105" rx="8.4" ry="8.4" fill="#fff7ed" stroke="#d97706" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 324px; height: 1px; padding-top: 523px; margin-left: 1212px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #7C2D12; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(124, 45, 18); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Held-out evaluation</b><br />AUC · Brier · log loss · ECE<br />coverage · selective error<br />abstention + robustness</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="1212" y="527" fill="#7C2D12" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Held-out evaluation...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="label"><g><rect x="630" y="654" width="350" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#fef2f2" stroke="#dc2626" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 332px; height: 1px; padding-top: 700px; margin-left: 648px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #991B1B; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 27, 27); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Later outcome label</b><br />proposal_rejected_by_protocol · DVM resolution · settlement records</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="648" y="705" fill="#991B1B" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">Later outcome label...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="forbidden"><g><rect x="230" y="654" width="350" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#dc2626" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="12 8" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 332px; height: 1px; padding-top: 700px; margin-left: 248px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #991B1B; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 27, 27); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Forbidden as model inputs</b><br />dispute/resolution/settlement time · resolved price · payout · terminal outcome · label</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="248" y="704" fill="#991B1B" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px">Forbidden as model inputs...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="boundary"><g><rect x="1030" y="654" width="500" height="92" rx="7.36" ry="7.36" fill="#fef2f2" stroke="#dc2626" stroke-width="2" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe flex-start; width: 462px; height: 1px; padding-top: 700px; margin-left: 1050px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #991B1B; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 27, 27); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Interpretation boundary</b><br />The target is a later UMA protocol resolution—not independent factual truth and not a causal estimate of an optimal challenge policy.</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="1050" y="705" fill="#991B1B" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="15px">Interpretation boundary...</text></switch></g></g></g><g data-cell-id="footer"><g><rect x="40" y="790" width="1520" height="58" rx="3.48" ry="3.48" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#cbd5e1" stroke-width="1.5" pointer-events="all"/></g><g><g transform="translate(-0.5 -0.5)"><switch><foreignObject pointer-events="none" width="100%" height="100%" requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility" style="overflow: visible; text-align: left;"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" style="display: flex; align-items: unsafe center; justify-content: unsafe center; width: 1518px; height: 1px; padding-top: 819px; margin-left: 41px;"><div data-drawio-colors="color: #334155; " style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: center;"><div style="display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 65, 85); line-height: 1.2; pointer-events: all; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: normal;"><b>Evidence grammar:</b> green = decision-time features · blue = frozen estimation · purple = decision outputs · red = post-decision labels and limitations</div></div></div></foreignObject><text x="800" y="823" fill="#334155" font-family=""Arial"" font-size="14px" text-anchor="middle">Evidence grammar: green = decision-time features · blue = frozen estimation · purple = decision outputs · red = post-decision labels and limitations</text></switch></g></g></g></g></g></g><switch><g requiredFeatures="http://www.w3.org/TR/SVG11/feature#Extensibility"/><a transform="translate(0,-5)" xlink:href="https://www.drawio.com/doc/faq/svg-export-text-problems" target="_blank"><text text-anchor="middle" font-size="10px" x="50%" y="100%">Text is not SVG - cannot display</text></a></switch></svg> |