sample_id string | question_text string | prediction_date timestamp[ms] | prompt list | resolution_date timestamp[ms] | correct_answer int64 | resolution_reasoning string | prediction_polymarket float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a27182df-feb8-41b9-b6f3-23581225397d | Will Jordan Bardella and Marine Tondelier participate in a televised head-to-head or multi-party debate together before the second round of the 2024 French legislative elections on July 7, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Jordan Bardella and Marine Tondelier partici... | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | 0 | Jordan Bardella refused to participate in the scheduled BFMTV debate because Marine Tondelier was the NFP's representative. BFMTV subsequently hosted sequential individual interviews rather than a debate. No other televised debates featured both Tondelier and Bardella together before the July 7 second round. | null |
150bad79-5af1-4a3d-801e-fb616f3e2a1f | Will Donald Trump officially announce a sitting or former U.S. Governor as his 2024 Vice Presidential running mate by July 18, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Donald Trump officially announce a sitting o... | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 0 | Donald Trump officially announced JD Vance as his Vice Presidential running mate on July 15, 2024, during the Republican National Convention. JD Vance was a sitting U.S. Senator from Ohio at the time and had never served as a U.S. Governor. Since the choice was announced before the July 18 deadline and the individual s... | null |
487ffd45-215f-46ac-9e1e-0d9f2779b664 | Will the Uttar Pradesh state government announce a new financial compensation package specifically for the shopkeepers whose shops were demolished for the Ayodhya Ram Path project by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Uttar Pradesh state government announce ... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | The Uttar Pradesh government did not announce a new financial compensation package (direct cash payout) for the Ayodhya Ram Path shopkeepers by the August 31, 2024 deadline. Following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the government defended its existing compensation record (citing figures over ₹1,700 crore) and introduced... | null |
e10afbb3-d254-42d3-94a7-b4ee16b7346b | Will Rebecca Parkes remain the Regional President of the USO Northeast region through September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Rebecca Parkes remain the Regional President... | 2024-09-03T00:00:00 | 1 | Rebecca Parkes was appointed Regional President of the USO Northeast region in May 2021. Media appearances and official reports throughout 2024 confirm she held this role leading up to and past September 1, 2024. Specifically, on July 1, 2024, she was interviewed by Fox News Radio as the USO Northeast Regional Presiden... | null |
75d7e266-fbf6-40cb-8ccc-4f0451f31764 | Will Om Birla be removed or resign from the position of Speaker of the 18th Lok Sabha by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Om Birla be removed or resign from the posit... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Om Birla was elected as the Speaker of the 18th Lok Sabha on June 26, 2024. Historical records and parliamentary proceedings confirm that he remained in office through August 31, 2024, and continued his tenure well into 2025. There were no instances of resignation or removal during the specified period. | null |
ef1c4431-60e6-4f04-99da-bc5f3220ed58 | Will Rahul Gandhi issue a formal apology in the Lok Sabha for his remarks regarding the Hindu community and the Agniveer scheme by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Rahul Gandhi issue a formal apology in the L... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Rahul Gandhi made the controversial remarks in the Lok Sabha on July 1, 2024. Despite intense pressure and formal demands for an apology from senior BJP leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah, Gandhi refused to apologize. Instead, on July 2, 2024, he wrote a letter to the Lok Sabha Speaker protesting the expunction... | null |
de763a90-e421-4fc2-aae8-ff791ab6122b | Will Mahindra & Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector report domestic tractor sales of more than 45,888 units for the month of July 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Mahindra & Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector ... | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Mahindra & Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector (FES) reported domestic tractor sales of 25,587 units for July 2024, which is a 6% increase over the 24,168 units sold in July 2023. The figure mentioned in the question, 45,888 units, refers to the domestic sales for the preceding month, June 2024. Since 25,587 is not more t... | null |
74509e49-efb0-455e-976e-a5592f27a428 | Will the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) officially notify the final 'MF Lite' regulatory framework for passive mutual funds by September 30, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Securities and Exchange Board of India (... | 2024-12-16T00:00:00 | 0 | While the SEBI Board approved the 'MF Lite' regulatory framework on September 30, 2024, the official notification in the Gazette of India did not occur until December 16, 2024 (SEBI Mutual Funds Third Amendment Regulations, 2024). The detailed operational framework was subsequently issued via circular on December 31, 2... | null |
9bbae3da-4c59-4d62-a5c9-153185005e1e | Will the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issue a formal interim order or a final order against Quant Mutual Fund or its employees regarding the front-running investigation by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Securities and Exchange Board of India (... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Following search and seizure operations at Quant Mutual Fund in late June 2024, the SEBI investigation remained in the active inquiry phase throughout July and August 2024. No formal interim order or final order specifically against Quant Mutual Fund or its employees was issued by the August 31, 2024 deadline. Subseque... | null |
3e6d0a03-4db2-4545-b7c7-4af00d059f7b | Will the closing price of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) be higher than Rs 250.00 on August 30, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the closing price of Indian Renewable Energy... | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | 0 | On August 30, 2024, the closing price of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was Rs 241.35. Although the stock reached an intraday high of Rs 259.00 during that trading session, it closed significantly lower. Since the closing price of Rs 241.35 is not higher tha... | null |
97ded06b-2d3c-4b5c-855f-cddfaceb5140 | Will Steve Bannon be released from the Federal Correctional Institution in Danbury, Connecticut, by November 1, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Steve Bannon be released from the Federal Co... | 2024-10-29T00:00:00 | 1 | Steve Bannon was released from the Federal Correctional Institution (FCI) Danbury in Connecticut on October 29, 2024, after serving a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress. He had reported to the facility on July 1, 2024. His release was confirmed by the Federal Bureau of Prisons and major news outlets on Octobe... | null |
76c4aae3-e239-4c28-a51e-840f9f7e6232 | Will the National Rally (Rassemblement National) and its allies win an absolute majority of at least 289 seats in the French National Assembly following the second round of elections on July 7, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the National Rally (Rassemblement National) ... | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | 0 | Results from the second round of the French legislative elections held on July 7, 2024, confirmed that the National Rally (RN) and its allies (the Union of the Far Right/Ciotti-led faction) failed to secure an absolute majority. According to the French Ministry of the Interior and major news agencies, the RN-led allian... | 0.252581 |
df22980e-3eaa-4a6d-ab1f-63be6a467f01 | Will the Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies win an absolute majority of at least 289 seats in the French National Assembly following the second round of the 2024 legislative elections? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Rassemblement National (RN) and its alli... | 2024-07-07T00:00:00 | 0 | The second round of the 2024 French legislative elections took place on July 7, 2024. Following the final vote count, the Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies failed to secure an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. To obtain an absolute majority, a group needs at least 289 seats. Official results... | 0.252581 |
8bc42e34-cc2b-4816-8b0c-0b340f03f075 | Will Simon Cowell officially announce his retirement from television production or talent judging by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Simon Cowell officially announce his retirem... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Based on all available information, Simon Cowell did not announce his retirement by the August 31, 2024 deadline. In July 2024, he explicitly denied retirement rumors in interviews, stating he would work as long as there was a purpose. During the summer of 2024, he was actively judging 'America's Got Talent' and announ... | null |
c6763c1d-0c54-4b36-bfd0-873af2650a23 | Will the shares of Vraj Iron and Steel Limited list on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) at a price of ₹380.00 or higher on July 3, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the shares of Vraj Iron and Steel Limited li... | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | 0 | Vraj Iron and Steel Limited listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on July 3, 2024, at an opening price of ₹240.00 per share. This price is significantly lower than the ₹380.00 threshold mentioned in the question. Even the intraday high on the listing day reached only ₹251.95, which was the upper circuit limit for t... | null |
58377bdf-2b80-4933-9a04-5382a2dc91c5 | Will Manorama Industries Limited report a total revenue from operations of at least Rs 350 crore for the first half of the 2024-25 fiscal year (H1 FY25) ending September 30, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Manorama Industries Limited report a total r... | 2024-10-23T00:00:00 | 0 | Manorama Industries Limited reported its financial results for the first half of the 2024-25 fiscal year (H1 FY25) on October 23, 2024. According to the official earnings report, the consolidated revenue from operations for the period ending September 30, 2024, was Rs 328.83 crore (INR 3,288.31 million). Since this amo... | null |
1557221b-0172-4bc1-9147-f4c699441e9b | Will the Malaysian Ministry of Education officially announce the total number of students with 10As and above who were admitted to the 2024/2025 matriculation intake by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Malaysian Ministry of Education official... | 2024-08-08T00:00:00 | 1 | The Malaysian Ministry of Education (MOE) officially announced the relevant figures in two stages. First, on July 11, 2024, Education Minister Fadhlina Sidek stated in Parliament that 4,877 students with 10As and above had applied for the 2024/2025 matriculation intake. Second, on August 8, 2024, Deputy Education Minis... | null |
c44bfa7e-9812-401b-b7e5-c239664fd94d | Will the Kottayam District Administration release a special commemorative postage stamp or a first-day cover to mark the 75th anniversary of the district's formation by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Kottayam District Administration release... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Kottayam district celebrated its 75th formation anniversary on July 1, 2024. Official reports and news coverage of the celebrations, which included ceremonies at the District Collectorate, did not mention the release of a postage stamp or first-day cover. Furthermore, major philatelic catalogs and blogs that track all ... | null |
e08b3727-bd17-47ba-bef0-ed5fad8f7d6a | Will the federal criminal trial of Donald Trump for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election (Case No. 1:23-cr-00257) begin in Washington, D.C. by November 4, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the federal criminal trial of Donald Trump f... | 2024-11-04T00:00:00 | 0 | The federal criminal trial of Donald Trump for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election (Case No. 1:23-cr-00257) did not begin by November 4, 2024. The case was delayed for several months due to litigation over presidential immunity, which culminated in a Supreme Court ruling on July 1, 2024. Following the rem... | null |
0cc9bd2f-a26b-4aaa-8034-7678c74eea63 | Will the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) launch a mobile application version of the Bima Bharosa portal by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Insurance Regulatory and Development Aut... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 1 | News reports from early August 2024 (including statements from IRDAI officials) indicated that a mobile application version of the Bima Bharosa portal was scheduled to be launched by the end of August 2024. Current affairs capsules for August 2024 and the IRDAI website's "Mobile Accessibility" installation guide (Versi... | null |
5d482ba4-94c6-41ee-b8df-b272615cbfb4 | Will the federal trial for Donald Trump's election subversion case (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) begin by November 5, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the federal trial for Donald Trump's electio... | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 0 | The federal trial for the election subversion case (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) did not begin by November 5, 2024. Originally scheduled for March 4, 2024, the case was stayed in December 2023 pending appeals regarding Donald Trump's claims of presidential immunity. Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling... | null |
26b150f9-5f56-448b-9225-85f1b84f4299 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 United States presidential race by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential race on July 21, 2024, through a letter shared on social media. This date is prior to the August 31, 2024 deadline specified in the question. | 0.991 |
53d9613f-eb71-4060-95f0-3838f36930e4 | Will the Moradabad police officially rule the death of Teerthanker Mahaveer University professor Dr. Aditi Mehrotra as a homicide by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Moradabad police officially rule the dea... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | Dr. Aditi Mehrotra was found dead in a locked guest house room on July 1, 2024. Moradabad police, specifically Superintendent Akhilesh Bhadoria, identified the case as a suicide based on the door being locked from the inside and forensic evidence. No official reports or police updates through the deadline of August 15,... | null |
58753c25-0e8b-4cbc-9bf2-ab2f45ba21f9 | Will the Indian government announce a reduction or removal of the 2.5% basic customs duty on any electronic sub-assemblies or input parts in the Union Budget for 2024-25? | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Indian government announce a reduction o... | 2024-07-23T00:00:00 | 0 | In the Union Budget for 2024-25, presented in July 2024, the Indian government reduced the basic customs duty on finished mobile phones and mobile PCBAs from 20% to 15%. However, it did not remove or reduce the 2.5% basic customs duty on specific electronic sub-assemblies and input parts (such as parts for camera modul... | null |
b097fbe3-55b1-4c2f-a438-89ddee12f74b | Will the Uttar Pradesh Police or STF announce the arrest of the two accomplices who escaped during the encounter of Sumit Singh (alias Monu alias Chavanni) by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Uttar Pradesh Police or STF announce the... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Sumit Singh, alias Monu Chavanni, was killed in a police encounter in Jaunpur on July 2, 2024. While official reports at the time confirmed that two accomplices escaped the scene in a Bolero and that police teams were conducting raids to find them, there was no subsequent official announcement from the Uttar Pradesh Po... | null |
a5b86152-cfb4-4def-9175-2f8dc040ec48 | Will the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announce a formal contract award to Pfizer for the development of an mRNA pandemic influenza vaccine by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the U.S. Department of Health and Human Serv... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | On July 2, 2024, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), announced a $176 million contract award to Moderna for the development of an mRNA-based pandemic influenza (H5) vaccine. At the time of this announcement, HHS officials st... | null |
0a857c16-e6f4-4c77-8af2-01c265711db9 | Will the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) officially notify or approve the 'MF Lite' regulatory framework for passive mutual funds by September 30, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Securities and Exchange Board of India (... | 2024-09-30T00:00:00 | 1 | On September 30, 2024, SEBI held its 207th board meeting where it officially approved the introduction of the 'MF Lite' (Mutual Fund Lite) regulatory framework for passive mutual fund schemes. This approval was publicly announced in SEBI Press Release PR No. 25/2024 on the same day. Since the question asks if SEBI woul... | null |
6f5c16a3-4e37-47aa-b46e-8827351ee469 | Will Donald Trump be officially nominated as the Republican candidate for President at the 2024 Republican National Convention by July 19, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Donald Trump be officially nominated as the ... | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 1 | Donald Trump was officially nominated as the Republican candidate for President on July 15, 2024, during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This occurred on the first day of the convention when he officially crossed the delegate threshold during the roll call of states. As this occurred before ... | 0.001 |
62716880-eba2-4bdf-b98d-8907754bf9fc | Will the Indian government introduce a formal training program or workshop specifically for first-time National Democratic Alliance (NDA) MPs by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Indian government introduce a formal tra... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | A formal orientation program for all 280 newly elected MPs of the 18th Lok Sabha was conducted by the Lok Sabha Secretariat (PRIDE) on August 9–10, 2024, but it was open to all parties, not specifically restricted to the NDA. No record exists of a government-led training program exclusively for first-time NDA MPs initi... | null |
2ec97114-a52d-4323-beee-46ad06e7b4ab | Will the Assam government officially announce the completion of the repair work for the embankment breach at Bankuwal in the Bokakhat sub-division by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Assam government officially announce the... | 2024-07-20T00:00:00 | 1 | The breach occurred on July 2, 2024. Minister Pijush Hazarika announced a 15-day completion target for the repairs on the same day. Retrospective reports from 2025 confirm the work was completed quickly and reconnected using geo-tubes in 2024. Therefore, an official announcement of completion by August 31, 2024, is con... | null |
4e49e3d6-5848-4a9d-a271-e68d53ed5573 | Will Netflix officially announce a specific release date for 'Stranger Things' Season 5 by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Netflix officially announce a specific relea... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | As of August 31, 2024, Netflix had not officially announced a specific release date (a day and month) for 'Stranger Things' Season 5. While Netflix confirmed in February 2024 that the final season would be released sometime in 2025, the specific premiere dates—November 26, 2025, for Volume 1; December 25, 2025, for Vol... | null |
ec57c2ba-369a-485a-9d6b-3da14091c873 | Will Yes Bank announce a new partnership with a major Indian e-commerce platform to provide supply chain financing for its vendors by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Yes Bank announce a new partnership with a m... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Comprehensive searches of financial records and corporate announcements confirm that while Yes Bank was active in the supply chain financing space during 2024, it did not announce a specific new partnership with a major Indian e-commerce platform (such as Flipkart, Amazon India, or Meesho) for vendor financing by the A... | null |
abeff2cf-6aab-41d6-abef-53379948a76e | Will the Gaza Health Ministry report that the total death toll in the Gaza Strip has surpassed 40,000 by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Gaza Health Ministry report that the tot... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 1 | On August 15, 2024, the Gaza Health Ministry officially reported that the death toll in the Gaza Strip had reached 40,005 Palestinians. This announcement was widely documented by international news agencies such as Reuters and the Associated Press, as well as the United Nations, confirming that the 40,000 threshold was... | null |
83dac35b-96d0-4c5b-b83f-db649fdc5536 | Will the Telangana state government begin the implementation of its farm loan waiver program by September 30, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Telangana state government begin the imp... | 2024-07-18T00:00:00 | 1 | The Telangana state government officially launched the first phase of its farm loan waiver program on July 18, 2024, with subsequent phases following in late July and mid-August. By August 15, 2024, the government had already disbursed funds for loans up to ‹2 lakh, fulfilling its primary implementation timeline. There... | null |
4ce83e6d-9182-4701-aedd-0afaf7da6f7b | Will the Kerala State government officially announce the commencement of a tetrapod seawall construction project in Haripad by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Kerala State government officially annou... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | The Kerala government's major tetrapod seawall initiatives in 2024 and 2025 were centered on Chellanam. In Haripad (Alappuzha), the coastal projects were primarily groyne fields (pulimuttu) made with tetrapods, most of which were sanctioned under KIIFB as early as 2021. As of late July 2024, local political leaders wer... | null |
e849b90f-e40b-4860-8a5f-6659af8db31b | Will Lucy Letby be sentenced to a whole-life order for the attempted murder of Baby K by July 10, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Lucy Letby be sentenced to a whole-life orde... | 2024-07-05T00:00:00 | 1 | Following a retrial at Manchester Crown Court, Lucy Letby was found guilty of the attempted murder of Baby K on July 2, 2024. On July 5, 2024, she was sentenced to a whole-life order for this specific crime. This was her 15th whole-life order. Since the sentencing occurred on July 5, 2024, it was completed before the J... | null |
82aa77c0-fb31-47a4-8b8a-79c9dd078ae8 | Will HDFC Bank issue an official statement or will major Indian news outlets report that the scheduled core banking system upgrade on July 13, 2024, was extended beyond 6:00 PM IST on that same day? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill HDFC Bank issue an official statement or wil... | 2024-07-13T00:00:00 | 0 | HDFC Bank officially scheduled the system upgrade to conclude at 4:30 PM IST on July 13, 2024. No official statements or news reports from major Indian outlets documented any extension of this downtime beyond 6:00 PM IST on that day. | null |
c6281d4c-fa1a-4af6-aaea-0ecb796f1b78 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | On July 21, 2024, President Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election via a public letter and social media posts. He subsequently delivered an Oval Office address on July 24, 2024, to explain his decision. Since this withdrawal occurred well before the August 31, 2024 deadline me... | 0.999 |
77963d10-d6c0-4294-b4d4-9fa0a1673702 | Will the Odisha government successfully enforce the ban on VIP darshan inside the Jagannath Temple in Puri during the Rath Yatra on July 7, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Odisha government successfully enforce t... | 2024-07-07T00:00:00 | 1 | The Odisha government successfully enforced the ban on VIP darshan inside the temple during the Rath Yatra on July 7, 2024. This was evidenced by the fact that the Pahandi rituals were completed two hours ahead of schedule, which officials attributed to the lack of VIP-related interference. Prominent figures, including... | null |
406bcbbe-9181-44f9-81d6-f701b90a4a61 | Will the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test-Post Graduate (NEET-PG) 2024 be conducted on or before August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test-P... | 2024-08-11T00:00:00 | 1 | The National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test-Post Graduate (NEET-PG) 2024 was officially conducted by the National Board of Examinations in Medical Sciences (NBEMS) on August 11, 2024. The examination had been postponed from its original June 23 date and was rescheduled to August 11, which falls before the August 31, 202... | null |
43433f2e-f0cc-4e9c-8584-a58c11cc20fa | Will the public inquiry led by Lady Justice Kathryn Thirlwall into the Lucy Letby case officially begin its public hearings by September 30, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the public inquiry led by Lady Justice Kathr... | 2024-09-10T00:00:00 | 1 | The Thirlwall Inquiry, chaired by Lady Justice Kathryn Thirlwall, officially commenced its public hearings on September 10, 2024, at Liverpool Town Hall. Since the hearings began prior to the September 30, 2024 deadline, the answer is yes. | null |
b172a5d3-1cd0-4d37-9937-23d0393b6e8f | Will Mohammed Abu Selmia be re-arrested or taken back into custody by Israeli authorities by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Mohammed Abu Selmia be re-arrested or taken ... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | Mohammed Abu Selmia was released from Israeli custody on July 1, 2024. Following his release, he returned to Gaza and was seen in public reports throughout July and mid-August 2024. Although his release caused political friction in Israel, there were no documented instances of him being re-arrested or taken back into c... | null |
12eaeda4-0510-488c-80cb-3697026a4246 | Will Tesla, Inc. and Nvidia Corporation announce a new formal business partnership or joint venture between July 2, 2024, and September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Tesla, Inc. and Nvidia Corporation announce ... | 2024-09-02T00:00:00 | 0 | A review of corporate filings, official press releases, and news archives for both Tesla, Inc. and Nvidia Corporation between July 2, 2024, and September 1, 2024, confirms that no formal business partnership or joint venture was announced. While Tesla continued its role as a significant customer for Nvidia's AI hardwar... | null |
c6c419df-509a-4943-a36a-7e11e11d2031 | Will the price of Bitcoin (USD/BTC) reach a new all-time high of $74,000.00 or more by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the price of Bitcoin (USD/BTC) reach a new a... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Bitcoin's highest price recorded between January 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024, occurred on March 14, 2024, peaking at approximately $73,737 to $73,835 depending on the exchange. The price did not reach the $74,000.00 threshold during this period; that milestone was first achieved on November 6, 2024. Consequently, the ... | null |
ea376eca-df6a-43fb-8954-a8c2c60d36b1 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 19, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential election on July 21, 2024, which is prior to the August 19, 2024 deadline. He released a statement explaining his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee and subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. | 0.991 |
19be3078-032c-40a6-a2b8-1aee058cdde3 | Will the closing price of Lupin Ltd. (LUPIN) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) exceed 1,800.00 INR on August 30, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the closing price of Lupin Ltd. (LUPIN) on t... | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | 1 | Historical market data for Lupin Ltd. (LUPIN) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) indicates that the stock closed at 2,240.20 INR on August 30, 2024. Since 2,240.20 INR is greater than the 1,800.00 INR threshold, the condition is met. | null |
e793d43d-1636-4ce8-a277-9418e66b702b | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 United States presidential race by July 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential race on July 21, 2024, through a statement posted on social media. Since this announcement occurred before the July 31, 2024 deadline specified in the question, the answer is yes. | 0.991 |
e82e130b-b5ce-4c1e-b4b6-0ffd3c77c35c | Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit the state of Manipur between July 2, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit the state... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first visit to Manipur following the start of the ethnic conflict in May 2023 occurred on September 13, 2025. Extensive media coverage from major outlets (e.g., Al Jazeera, NDTV, The Indian Express) confirmed that this 2025 visit was his first to the state in 864 days, thereby encompassin... | null |
6c7bacda-0c0d-4f22-931c-51cba8106955 | Will the Uttar Pradesh Department of Education or the Muzaffarnagar district administration officially suspend or remove Principal Ranveer Singh of the Kawal Government Inter College by August 15, 2024, following the controversy over applying tilaks to Muslim students? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Uttar Pradesh Department of Education or... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | The incident involving Principal Ranveer Singh at Government Inter College, Kawal, occurred in early July 2024 and was resolved via police-led mediation and a public apology on July 3, 2024. Available reports indicate that the matter was settled without formal disciplinary action. As there are no records of a suspensio... | null |
cea86db7-d319-4bac-b033-2480717b27e7 | Will Rahul Gandhi issue a formal public apology for his July 1, 2024, Lok Sabha remarks regarding the Hindu community by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Rahul Gandhi issue a formal public apology f... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | On July 1, 2024, Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, made remarks regarding the BJP/RSS leadership which were interpreted by opponents as an attack on the Hindu community. Despite immediate demands for an apology from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, Gandhi clarified in Par... | null |
52c4f928-623b-4710-930c-714a83eda3d0 | Will Donald Trump speak at the 2024 National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) annual conference or a specifically branded 'Evangelicals for Trump' rally by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Donald Trump speak at the 2024 National Asso... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Donald Trump did not speak at a 2024 National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) annual conference, as the organization does not hold a large-scale public conference for political candidates in that format. Additionally, while Trump spoke at several major evangelical events prior to August 31, 2024—including the Nationa... | null |
471503d2-bc76-4799-99d0-ce5e02bb7dbf | Will Donald Trump be the official Republican nominee for President of the United States following the 2024 Republican National Convention? | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Donald Trump be the official Republican nomi... | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 1 | Donald Trump was officially nominated as the Republican candidate for President on July 15, 2024, during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He secured the nomination after a formal roll call vote of state delegates on the convention's opening day. He subsequently accepted the nomination in a sp... | 0.001 |
9fc629eb-0c1c-433f-964e-8ec6e254503c | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | On July 21, 2024, President Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election via a public letter and social media posts. He subsequently delivered an Oval Office address on July 24, 2024, to explain his decision. Since this withdrawal occurred well before the August 31, 2024 deadline me... | 0.999 |
cf8d0b41-c26f-4f7b-8e67-bc9fb7518f6c | Will the 16-year-old boy charged with a terrorism offence for the stabbing of Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel be convicted of that charge by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the 16-year-old boy charged with a terrorism... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | The 16-year-old boy was charged with a terrorism offense (specifically 'committing a terrorist act') on April 18, 2024. Following the charge, the case entered the legal process in the Parramatta Children's Court. In a hearing on June 14, 2024, the matter was adjourned until July 26, 2024, to allow the prosecution more ... | null |
9c4dc004-8d40-47a1-b6bb-c40d1d07704b | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 1, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race on July 21, 2024, through a letter shared on his social media accounts. This occurred before the August 1, 2024 deadline specified in the question. | 0.991 |
f5f1c9ba-d002-419c-862a-a57d236caa39 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 19, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential election on July 21, 2024, which is prior to the August 19, 2024 deadline. He released a statement explaining his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee and subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. | 0.991 |
20e63053-afb5-412b-95f6-4b0810a85a14 | Will the price of Bitcoin (USD/BTC) reach or exceed $70,000.00 at any point between July 3, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the price of Bitcoin (USD/BTC) reach or exce... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Historical price data from major cryptocurrency exchanges and financial aggregators like Yahoo Finance and CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin (BTC/USD) peaked at approximately $69,987.54 on July 29, 2024. Despite a significant rally following the Bitcoin 2024 conference, the price failed to reach or exceed the $70,000.00... | null |
9d158eb1-971c-4ab8-a1f5-87426a4ca367 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 19, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential election on July 21, 2024, which is prior to the August 19, 2024 deadline. He released a statement explaining his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee and subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. | 0.991 |
5f3716a7-dded-48be-814e-8a0f0a9c3be8 | Will Kamala Harris be the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States by August 25, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Kamala Harris be the official Democratic nom... | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 1 | Kamala Harris officially became the Democratic nominee for President of the United States on August 5, 2024, following the conclusion of a virtual roll call vote conducted by the Democratic National Committee. This virtual process was used to ensure she met various state ballot deadlines. She subsequently accepted the ... | null |
39ef1f85-a300-4517-9e80-5ff4f219f97f | Will the Pakatan Harapan candidate, Dr. Joohari Ariffin, win the Sungai Bakap by-election held on July 6, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Pakatan Harapan candidate, Dr. Joohari A... | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 0 | Dr. Joohari Ariffin, the candidate for Pakatan Harapan (PH), did not win the Sungai Bakap by-election. The election, held on July 6, 2024, was won by Abidin Ismail of Perikatan Nasional (PN). Official results showed that Abidin Ismail received 14,489 votes, while Dr. Joohari Ariffin received 10,222 votes, giving PN a m... | null |
193a13d9-0a0e-4742-b32e-acac0cce41db | Will the preacher known as Bhole Baba (Jagat Guru Saakar Vishwahari) be arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Police in connection with the July 2, 2024, Hathras stampede by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the preacher known as Bhole Baba (Jagat Guru... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | By the specified deadline of August 15, 2024, the preacher Bhole Baba (Suraj Pal) had not been arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Police. While 11 individuals, including the main organizer Dev Prakash Madhukar, were arrested in connection with the July 2, 2024, Hathras stampede, Bhole Baba's name was notably absent from the... | null |
a8a22ee5-fd9d-4c3e-88de-c1db9b14337d | Will there be any reported shooting incidents at Boom Island Park in Minneapolis during the July 4, 2024, 'Red, White & Boom' fireworks event? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill there be any reported shooting incidents at ... | 2024-07-05T00:00:00 | 0 | According to official reports from the Minneapolis Police Department and multiple news outlets, there were no reported shooting incidents at Boom Island Park during the July 4, 2024, 'Red, White & Boom' fireworks event. Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O'Hara confirmed in a press conference on July 5, 2024, that while ap... | null |
c0f849e6-f3d0-4c50-ae81-90c640ef11bf | Will the Himachal Pradesh state government announce a new financial subsidy or incentive scheme specifically for millet farmers by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Himachal Pradesh state government announ... | 2024-08-08T00:00:00 | 1 | On August 8, 2024, the Himachal Pradesh State Cabinet formally approved the HIM-UNNATI scheme as part of the third phase of the Rajiv Gandhi Start-up Yojana. This scheme specifically included a new financial incentive framework for millet farmers, establishing a state-led procurement system with a set purchase price of... | null |
a4c99fd0-09a4-4a9a-b483-70a636aecdd5 | Will the Government of India grant 'Special Category Status' to the state of Odisha by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Government of India grant 'Special Categ... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | As of August 31, 2024, the Government of India has not granted 'Special Category Status' (SCS) to the state of Odisha. The Central Government has consistently maintained, based on the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission, that the 'Special Category Status' classification is no longer being granted to any new ... | null |
87f7db1d-d1d3-46ab-b955-2872bbf8e962 | Will the official death toll from the 2024 floods in Assam, India, reach or exceed 100 by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the official death toll from the 2024 floods... | 2024-07-11T00:00:00 | 1 | According to official bulletins from the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) and widespread reports from major news outlets, the total death toll from the 2024 Assam floods and related incidents reached 100 on July 11, 2024. By July 31, 2024, official reports confirmed that at least 117 people had lost th... | null |
8ee80f47-25ec-4d93-9237-d550ea52576d | Will Israel and Hamas enter into a formal, bilateral ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Israel and Hamas enter into a formal, bilate... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Extensive negotiations took place throughout August 2024, led by mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, aiming to finalize a ceasefire and hostage-release deal based on a framework proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden on May 31, 2024. Despite a "bridging proposal" introduced by the U.S. in mid-August 2024 ... | 0.16 |
1242822f-ad0e-4821-bf5b-99c054b17abf | Will the Australian federal government announce a new national mental health funding agreement with all states and territories by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Australian federal government announce a... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | The existing National Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Agreement, signed in 2022, is not scheduled to expire until June 30, 2026. As of September 1, 2024, no new national agreement had been announced. Official records and the Health Ministers' Meeting communique from August 16, 2024, show that the governments re-af... | null |
426afe6d-b02a-4e77-939b-0cd7783dc9d9 | Will Hurricane Beryl make a second landfall in Mexico by July 10, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Hurricane Beryl make a second landfall in Me... | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | 0 | According to meteorological records from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Beryl made only one landfall in Mexico, which occurred on July 5, 2024, near Tulum. Its subsequent landfall took place on July 8, 2024, near Matagorda, Texas, in the United States. Although early forecasts considered a possible second str... | null |
71645c2b-11a4-498d-8fdd-90e85f45c8f6 | Will the closing price of Vraj Iron and Steel Limited (VRAJ) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) be 300.00 INR or higher on August 30, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the closing price of Vraj Iron and Steel Lim... | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | 0 | On August 30, 2024, the closing price of Vraj Iron and Steel Limited (VRAJ) on the NSE was 217.24 INR. This is significantly below the 300.00 INR threshold. Historical records indicate the stock reached a high of 219.39 INR on that day and closed well below the target price of 300.00 INR. | null |
795d57a9-8ab0-493d-9434-8bde0c7663d2 | Will the Jugsalai Municipal Council (JMC) and Indian Railways complete a joint cleaning operation of the clogged drain at the Tata Pigment gate road-under-bridge by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Jugsalai Municipal Council (JMC) and Ind... | 2024-09-10T00:00:00 | 0 | While the Indian Railways and Jugsalai Municipal Council (JMC) identified the need for a joint cleaning operation in early July 2024 to address waterlogging at the Tata Pigment gate road-under-bridge, local reports indicate the operation was not completed by the August 31, 2024 deadline. Reports from August 24, 2024, n... | null |
31aa0945-2c7f-4b1d-94e1-d6e047da585e | Will the government of Karnataka officially sanction or allocate funds for the construction of the Birmeregundi bridge in Kadaba taluk by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the government of Karnataka officially sanct... | 2024-09-19T00:00:00 | 1 | Official reports from September 2024 and an e-tender for the project (PWD/2024-25/BG/WORK_INDENT14408) closing on September 17, 2024, confirm that the Government of Karnataka sanctioned ₹1.31 crore for the Birmeregundi bridge and associated roads. Since Administrative Sanction and fund allocation must precede the float... | null |
d6206bda-5af8-4bb7-94e8-1c3d86fb026a | Will the Uttar Pradesh Police officially arrest Surajpal, also known as Bhole Baba, in connection with the Hathras stampede by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Uttar Pradesh Police officially arrest S... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | Following the Hathras stampede on July 2, 2024, which resulted in 121 deaths, the Uttar Pradesh Police conducted a large-scale investigation. Surajpal, also known as Bhole Baba, was not named in the initial First Information Report (FIR) or the subsequent Special Investigation Team (SIT) report. As he was not named as ... | null |
812d3d4e-0a68-4e64-bbaa-4a38deb3e36d | Will the Bahau Magistrate's Court receive the psychiatric evaluation report for the 33-year-old man accused of murdering his mother in Jempol by the scheduled mention date of August 5, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Bahau Magistrate's Court receive the psy... | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 0 | According to reports from the Bahau Magistrate's Court proceedings on August 5, 2024, the psychiatric evaluation report for the 33-year-old accused, Tan Eng Ban, was not yet ready. Deputy Public Prosecutor Ahmad Jauhari Muhamad informed Magistrate Norshazwani Ishak that the report from Hospital Permai, Johor Bahru, was... | null |
62347715-d0ee-4545-bde7-a322428f5cf2 | Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats in the UK General Election held on July 4, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Labour Party win a majority of seats in ... | 2024-07-05T00:00:00 | 1 | The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, won a landslide victory in the UK General Election held on July 4, 2024. The party secured 411 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, which is well above the 326 seats required for a working majority. This outcome resulted in a 174-seat majority. The victory was confirmed in th... | 0.021716 |
004dd34e-cd10-43fd-8cb4-71e678fba561 | Will the closing price of Vraj Iron and Steel Limited (VRAJ) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) be higher than 300.00 INR on August 30, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the closing price of Vraj Iron and Steel Lim... | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | 0 | Historical stock market data for Vraj Iron and Steel Limited (VRAJ) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) indicates that the closing price on August 30, 2024, was approximately 217.24 INR. This value is well below the threshold of 300.00 INR. Historical data from reliable financial sources shows that since its listing i... | null |
b8fe86dc-8272-4c65-ad29-e03c566b9965 | Will Justice Juan Merchan vacate Donald Trump's conviction in the New York 'hush money' case (People v. Trump) by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Justice Juan Merchan vacate Donald Trump's c... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Justice Juan Merchan did not vacate Donald Trump's conviction in the New York 'hush money' case by the specified deadline of September 1, 2024. Although Trump's legal team filed motions to vacate the conviction following the U.S. Supreme Court's July 2024 ruling on presidential immunity, Justice Merchan did not issue a... | null |
b0fb2da0-04d5-49a4-b5c2-327667b8c6e6 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 19, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential election on July 21, 2024, which is prior to the August 19, 2024 deadline. He released a statement explaining his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee and subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. | 0.991 |
f4b2ae0e-dce5-4877-bb77-2193768f3248 | Will the closing price of GHCL Limited (GHCL) on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) be above 650.00 INR on August 30, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the closing price of GHCL Limited (GHCL) on ... | 2024-08-30T00:00:00 | 1 | The closing price of GHCL Limited (NSE: GHCL) on August 30, 2024, was 698.15 INR, which is above the 650.00 INR threshold specified in the question. This is confirmed by historical data from financial sources like EquityPandit and market performance records, which consistently show the stock trading in the high 600s du... | null |
91ee3cd2-061a-4783-b91d-a5ad8e3d74ba | Will a verdict be reached in the Fulton County racketeering trial of Jeffery Williams (Young Thug) by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-03T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill a verdict be reached in the Fulton County ra... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | As of September 1, 2024, the Fulton County racketeering trial (YSL RICO case) against Jeffery Williams (Young Thug) was still ongoing and had not reached a verdict. The trial was delayed during the summer of 2024 due to the recusal of the original presiding judge, Ural Glanville. Jeffery Williams ultimately resolved hi... | null |
3ea9875c-e6bd-49d8-b5ad-cef48b20ea0c | Will the Walt Disney Company or ABC News announce a formal settlement or legal resolution regarding a major US state privacy law violation related to their 'Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information' practices by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Walt Disney Company or ABC News announce... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | As of August 31, 2024, there were no public announcements or formal legal resolutions regarding a major US state privacy law violation (such as the California Consumer Privacy Act or CCPA) specifically related to the "Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information" practices of either The Walt Disney Company or its subsi... | null |
e479890b-1746-43d3-aedf-d36cd3ca3e3b | Will the Walt Disney Company or ABC News announce a formal settlement or legal resolution regarding a major US state privacy law violation related to their 'Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information' practices by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Walt Disney Company or ABC News announce... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | As of August 31, 2024, there were no public announcements or formal legal resolutions regarding a major US state privacy law violation (such as the California Consumer Privacy Act or CCPA) specifically related to the "Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information" practices of either The Walt Disney Company or its subsi... | null |
dbed8b7e-cce2-4c66-aa65-add4f5eb9980 | Will Anthony Bray's four-month prison sentence for carrying a Legend of Zelda Master Sword replica be overturned or reduced on appeal by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Anthony Bray's four-month prison sentence fo... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | Anthony Bray was sentenced to four months in prison on June 28, 2024, by Leamington Spa Magistrates' Court for possession of a bladed article in public (a 6-inch replica Legend of Zelda Master Sword). In the United Kingdom, individuals sentenced to standard determinate terms of less than four years are typically releas... | null |
0bc7550d-6b29-4ce0-b1c3-aaebe8186e25 | Will Tucker Carlson release a video interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Tucker Carlson release a video interview wit... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | On July 3, 2024, Tucker Carlson claimed to have secured an interview with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, the Ukrainian Presidential Office promptly denied this claim, stating that the President had no such interview scheduled. No video interview was released by Carlson featuring Zelenskyy throughout July or August 2024.... | null |
5427a299-c487-4f47-bb0f-1cd33868b13a | Will the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) issue a Warning Letter to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd regarding its Gujarat-based manufacturing plant by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) ... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | The USFDA issued a Warning Letter to Sun Pharma's Dadra facility on June 18, 2024. However, Dadra is located in a Union Territory and is administratively distinct from the state of Gujarat. Sun Pharma's primary Gujarat-based manufacturing plant, Halol, received its last Warning Letter in December 2022 (amended October ... | null |
ae8237d1-ad69-4a47-9468-a5d7e2dad067 | Will Senator Fatima Payman officially register a new political party with the Australian Electoral Commission by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Senator Fatima Payman officially register a ... | 2024-12-17T00:00:00 | 0 | Senator Fatima Payman did not register a political party by the September 1, 2024 deadline. Official records from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) confirm that the application for her new party, 'Australia's Voice', was not submitted until September 30, 2024, and the party was officially entered into the Regis... | null |
386f1ebf-c93b-4266-9874-8f00c7ee3c33 | Will the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) publicly release the identity of the suspect who died in the car chase in Muar on June 27, 2024, by August 15, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) publicly re... | 2024-08-15T00:00:00 | 0 | As of the deadline of August 15, 2024, the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) had not publicly released the specific identity or name of the suspect who died in the Muar car chase incident. While the incident was reported in late June and early July 2024, and Muar OCPD ACP Raiz Mukhliz Azman Aziz confirmed that the body was ... | null |
33b8783f-a3b3-4978-b8c1-7d8c179d2deb | Will Hurricane Beryl make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane or higher according to the National Hurricane Center? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Hurricane Beryl make landfall on the Yucatan... | 2025-01-23T00:00:00 | 0 | While operational National Hurricane Center advisories at the time of the event (July 5, 2024) estimated Hurricane Beryl's intensity as Category 2 at landfall near Tulum, Mexico, the NHC's final post-storm analysis—published in the official Tropical Cyclone Report (AL022024) on January 23, 2025—revised the intensity do... | null |
19c690d2-3a6b-4a99-a402-c187058da18b | Will the United Kingdom and India officially sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by September 1, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the United Kingdom and India officially sign... | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 0 | The United Kingdom and India did not sign a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement by the September 1, 2024 deadline. Negotiations were delayed due to general elections in both countries in early 2024. Although discussions resumed under the new UK Labour government in July 2024, the agreement was not concluded until May 20... | null |
45652537-48cb-47c7-ae3b-387bdd97fbe8 | Will the Karnataka State Government officially reclassify the Lingayat Panchamasali community into the 2A reservation category by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Karnataka State Government officially re... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | The Karnataka State Government did not officially reclassify the Lingayat Panchamasali community into the 2A reservation category by the specified deadline of August 31, 2024. News reports from late 2024 indicate that the community was still protesting for this status and that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah explicitly rej... | null |
ed7ab89f-3171-4439-8bec-fe31f2c2210e | Will the Mangaluru City Police arrest at least one of the four remaining suspects in the Padmanabha Kotian dacoity case by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Mangaluru City Police arrest at least on... | 2024-08-28T00:00:00 | 1 | On July 4, 2024, the Mangaluru City Police reported the arrest of 10 individuals in the Padmanabha Kotian dacoity case and indicated that four additional suspects were at large. On August 28, 2024, multiple news outlets reported that the police arrested three more suspects (Devin, Godwin, and Amal Krishna) in connectio... | null |
4b6e2b55-c541-429f-b526-be3f4a2bcea1 | Will the self-styled godman known as 'Bhole Baba' (Suraj Pal) be officially named as an accused in the First Information Report (FIR) related to the July 2024 Hathras stampede by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the self-styled godman known as 'Bhole Baba'... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | As of the deadline of August 31, 2024, Suraj Pal (also known as Bhole Baba) had not been officially named as an accused in the First Information Report (FIR) related to the Hathras stampede that occurred on July 2, 2024. The initial FIR (No. 189/2024) filed at the Sikandra Rao police station named the event's chief org... | null |
c185aedc-c73e-4b2e-b88d-7c0fc11525c5 | Will the Government of India officially announce the approval of a new Indian Institute of Management (IIM) for Telangana by September 4, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Government of India officially announce ... | 2024-07-23T00:00:00 | 0 | The Government of India did not officially announce the approval of a new IIM for Telangana by September 4, 2024. On July 23, 2024, Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan explicitly stated that there was no proposal for setting up a new IIM in the state. Reports from late 2024 and throughout 2025 confirm that the ... | null |
932b9f6c-7f30-40d5-b236-694b43fb17e2 | Will the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate finish in either first or second place in the Vikravandi Assembly constituency by-election held in July 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate fi... | 2024-07-13T00:00:00 | 1 | The Vikravandi Assembly constituency by-election result was declared on July 13, 2024. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) candidate, Anniyur Siva, won the election with 124,053 votes, while the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate, C. Anbumani, finished in second place with 56,296 votes. Since the PMK candidate finis... | null |
d618c843-9098-466c-b222-9c040ae28c83 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 United States presidential race by August 1, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw from the 2024 ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential race on July 21, 2024, through a public statement. This date is before the August 1, 2024 deadline. | 0.999 |
d3aab473-d7f9-4529-ae6c-dd2930d58b4f | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | On July 21, 2024, President Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election via a public letter and social media posts. He subsequently delivered an Oval Office address on July 24, 2024, to explain his decision. Since this withdrawal occurred well before the August 31, 2024 deadline me... | 0.999 |
1c4db256-99f5-41b3-a904-2e99c6814768 | Will the Kerala State Health Department report a total of five or more confirmed deaths from Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis (PAM) between May 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Kerala State Health Department report a ... | 2024-08-07T00:00:00 | 1 | The Kerala State Health Department reported five deaths from PAM between May 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024. The victims were Fadwa (May 20), Dakshina (June 12), Mridul (July 3), Nandana (July 22), and Akhil (July 23). Health Minister Veena George confirmed these five fatalities in official statements on August 7 and Aug... | null |
b45abf74-1809-4736-80f6-db0429329071 | Will the Indian Ministry of Culture or the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) announce the launch of a new national initiative specifically promoting 'Ancient Indian Dietary Practices' by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Indian Ministry of Culture or the Archae... | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 0 | Extensive searches of official government sources, including the Press Information Bureau (PIB), the Ministry of Culture, and the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI), do not reveal the launch or announcement of a new national initiative specifically titled 'Ancient Indian Dietary Practices' by the deadline of August 3... | null |
6a9f5a00-991c-4504-8138-22bfdbbf8495 | Will Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election by August 19, 2024? | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill Joe Biden officially withdraw his candidacy ... | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 1 | Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential election on July 21, 2024, which is prior to the August 19, 2024 deadline. He released a statement explaining his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee and subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. | 0.991 |
3697312a-cfb0-48ec-abd0-22256417ad45 | Will the Mangaluru City Police arrest at least two more suspects in the Ulaibettu dacoity case involving contractor Padmanabha Kotiyan by August 31, 2024? | 2024-07-05T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill the Mangaluru City Police arrest at least tw... | 2024-08-28T00:00:00 | 1 | Following the dacoity at the residence of contractor Padmanabha Kotiyan in Ulaibettu on June 21, 2024, the Mangaluru City Police initially arrested 10 suspects, a breakthrough announced by Police Commissioner Anupam Agrawal on July 4, 2024. Subsequently, on August 28, 2024, the police arrested three additional suspects... | null |
fa716fd2-ef9d-424d-8125-dd78ffa7f59a | Will there be any reported fatalities caused by a stampede during the 2024 Rath Yatra festival in Puri, Odisha, on July 7 and 8, 2024? | 2024-07-05T00:00:00 | [
{
"content": "You are an expert superforecaster, familiar with Structured Analytic Techniques as well as Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and related work.\n\nUsing the retrieved information, you will make a prediction for the following question.\n\nQuestion:\nWill there be any reported fatalities caused by a... | 2024-07-08T00:00:00 | 1 | Multiple news organizations reported at least one fatality in Puri on July 7, 2024, during the Rath Yatra festival. The deceased, Lalit Bagarti from Bolangir, died of suffocation in what was widely described in media reports as a stampede or stampede-like situation during the pulling of the chariots. While local police... | null |
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