from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass from typing import Any, Dict, Iterable, List, Mapping, Sequence, Tuple import numpy as np import pandas as pd @dataclass(frozen=True) class StoppingControls: target_rank_percentile: float = 1.0 peak_patience: int = 32 min_improvement_delta: float = 0.02 @dataclass(frozen=True) class ExplorationControls: stagnation_patience: int = 24 diversity_boost_strength: float = 0.4 dominant_window: int = 128 @dataclass(frozen=True) class UncertaintyControls: uncertainty_low_threshold: float = 0.35 uncertainty_patience: int = 32 expected_gain_threshold: float = 0.03 def enforce_control_limits(cfg: Mapping[str, Any]) -> None: """Enforce compact control surface to prevent parameter explosion.""" groups = { "stopping": set((cfg.get("stopping") or {}).keys()), "exploration": set((cfg.get("exploration") or {}).keys()), "uncertainty": set((cfg.get("uncertainty") or {}).keys()), } for name, keys in groups.items(): if len(keys) > 3: raise ValueError(f"{name} parameter count exceeds limit (3): {sorted(keys)}") def controls_from_config(cfg: Mapping[str, Any]) -> tuple[StoppingControls, ExplorationControls, UncertaintyControls]: stop_cfg = cfg.get("stopping") or {} exp_cfg = cfg.get("exploration") or {} unc_cfg = cfg.get("uncertainty") or {} return ( StoppingControls( target_rank_percentile=float(stop_cfg.get("target_rank_percentile", 1.0)), peak_patience=int(stop_cfg.get("peak_patience", 32)), min_improvement_delta=float(stop_cfg.get("min_improvement_delta", 0.02)), ), ExplorationControls( stagnation_patience=int(exp_cfg.get("stagnation_patience", 24)), diversity_boost_strength=float(exp_cfg.get("diversity_boost_strength", 0.4)), dominant_window=int(exp_cfg.get("dominant_window", 128)), ), UncertaintyControls( uncertainty_low_threshold=float(unc_cfg.get("uncertainty_low_threshold", 0.35)), uncertainty_patience=int(unc_cfg.get("uncertainty_patience", 32)), expected_gain_threshold=float(unc_cfg.get("expected_gain_threshold", 0.03)), ), ) def _safe_float(value: Any, default: float = np.nan) -> float: try: x = float(value) return x if np.isfinite(x) else float(default) except Exception: return float(default) def _best_rank_percentile(selected_ids: Sequence[str], truth_map: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]]) -> float: values: List[float] = [] for lid in selected_ids: info = truth_map.get(str(lid)) if info is None: continue values.append(float(info.get("rank_percentile", 100.0))) if not values: return 100.0 return float(np.min(np.asarray(values, dtype=float))) def _dominant_cluster_from_recent(selected_rows: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], window: int) -> int | None: if not selected_rows: return None recent = selected_rows[-max(1, int(window)) :] cnt: Dict[int, int] = {} for row in recent: cid = int(_safe_float(row.get("cluster_id", -1), default=-1)) if cid < 0: continue cnt[cid] = cnt.get(cid, 0) + 1 if not cnt: return None return int(max(cnt.items(), key=lambda kv: kv[1])[0]) def _expected_gain_proxy(remaining: pd.DataFrame, incumbent_best: float) -> float: pred = pd.to_numeric(remaining.get("predicted_score_prebatch", np.nan), errors="coerce").dropna() if pred.empty: return 0.0 optimistic = float(np.quantile(pred.to_numpy(dtype=float), 0.05)) # Lower score is better. return float(max(0.0, incumbent_best - optimistic)) def simulate_multifidelity_policy( order_df: pd.DataFrame, *, truth_map: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]], budget: int, min_budget: int, max_budget: int, wall_time_per_dock: float, max_wall_time_seconds: float | None, stopping: StoppingControls, exploration: ExplorationControls, uncertainty: UncertaintyControls, ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: """Run compact multifidelity policy simulation on a pre-ranked candidate order. Default mode exploits dominant cluster. Diversity fallback is enabled only under dominant-cluster stagnation, then automatically disabled. """ if order_df.empty: return order_df.copy(), pd.DataFrame() cap = int(max(1, min(int(budget), int(max_budget), int(order_df.shape[0])))) remaining = order_df.sort_values("step").head(cap).copy().reset_index(drop=True) selected_rows: List[dict[str, Any]] = [] selected_ids: List[str] = [] trace_rows: List[dict[str, Any]] = [] cluster_selected_counts: Dict[int, int] = {} dominant_cluster: int | None = None dominant_best_score = np.inf dominant_stagnant_rounds = 0 diversity_steps_left = 0 rank_history: List[float] = [] uncertainty_history: List[float] = [] stop_reason = "budget_cap_reached" for i in range(cap): if remaining.empty: stop_reason = "pool_exhausted" break if diversity_steps_left > 0: cluster_counts_now = { int(_safe_float(c, -1)): int(v) for c, v in cluster_selected_counts.items() if int(c) >= 0 } min_seen = min(cluster_counts_now.values()) if cluster_counts_now else 0 candidate_clusters = {cid for cid, v in cluster_counts_now.items() if v <= min_seen} cand = remaining[remaining["cluster_id"].isin(candidate_clusters)].head(1) if cand.empty: cand = remaining.head(1) selection_mode = "diversity_fallback" diversity_steps_left -= 1 else: dominant_cluster = _dominant_cluster_from_recent(selected_rows, exploration.dominant_window) if dominant_cluster is not None: cand = remaining[remaining["cluster_id"] == dominant_cluster].head(1) if cand.empty: cand = remaining.head(1) selection_mode = "dominant_unavailable" else: selection_mode = "dominant_exploit" else: cand = remaining.head(1) selection_mode = "initial_explore" row = cand.iloc[0].to_dict() remaining = remaining.drop(index=int(cand.index[0])).reset_index(drop=True) lid = str(row.get("ligand_id")) cid = int(_safe_float(row.get("cluster_id", -1), -1)) dscore = _safe_float(row.get("docking_score", np.nan), np.nan) unc = _safe_float(row.get("predicted_uncertainty_prebatch", np.nan), np.nan) selected_rows.append(row) selected_ids.append(lid) cluster_selected_counts[cid] = int(cluster_selected_counts.get(cid, 0) + 1) if np.isfinite(unc): uncertainty_history.append(float(unc)) if dominant_cluster is not None and cid == dominant_cluster: if np.isfinite(dscore) and (dscore < dominant_best_score - stopping.min_improvement_delta): dominant_best_score = float(dscore) dominant_stagnant_rounds = 0 else: dominant_stagnant_rounds += 1 best_rank_pct = _best_rank_percentile(selected_ids, truth_map) rank_history.append(best_rank_pct) patience = max(2, int(stopping.peak_patience)) if len(rank_history) >= patience: slope = float(rank_history[-patience] - rank_history[-1]) else: slope = np.nan incumbent_best = float(np.nanmin(pd.to_numeric(pd.DataFrame(selected_rows)["docking_score"], errors="coerce").to_numpy(dtype=float))) expected_gain = _expected_gain_proxy(remaining, incumbent_best) u_pat = max(2, int(uncertainty.uncertainty_patience)) recent_unc = uncertainty_history[-u_pat:] if uncertainty_history else [] mean_unc = float(np.mean(np.asarray(recent_unc, dtype=float))) if recent_unc else np.nan est_wall = float((i + 1) * wall_time_per_dock) rank_target_hit = bool(best_rank_pct <= float(stopping.target_rank_percentile)) slope_stagnation = bool(np.isfinite(slope) and abs(float(slope)) <= float(stopping.min_improvement_delta)) uncertainty_low = bool(np.isfinite(mean_unc) and mean_unc <= float(uncertainty.uncertainty_low_threshold)) gain_low = bool(float(expected_gain) <= float(uncertainty.expected_gain_threshold)) dominant_plateau = bool(dominant_stagnant_rounds >= int(exploration.stagnation_patience)) allow_stop = bool((i + 1) >= int(min_budget)) stop_now = False if allow_stop and rank_target_hit and slope_stagnation and gain_low and uncertainty_low: stop_now = True stop_reason = "early_peak_dynamic_stop" elif max_wall_time_seconds is not None and np.isfinite(float(max_wall_time_seconds)) and est_wall >= float(max_wall_time_seconds): stop_now = True stop_reason = "max_wall_time_reached" # Diversity fallback is only activated on dominant-cluster stagnation. fallback_triggered = False if ( not stop_now and diversity_steps_left <= 0 and dominant_plateau and (i + 1) >= int(min_budget) and not rank_target_hit ): diversity_steps_left = max(1, int(round(8.0 * float(exploration.diversity_boost_strength)))) fallback_triggered = True trace_rows.append( { "step": int(i), "ligand_id": lid, "selection_mode": selection_mode, "stop_reason": stop_reason if stop_now else "", "best_rank_percentile": float(best_rank_pct), "rank_improvement_slope": float(slope) if np.isfinite(slope) else np.nan, "expected_gain_proxy": float(expected_gain), "mean_uncertainty": float(mean_unc) if np.isfinite(mean_unc) else np.nan, "rank_target_hit": bool(rank_target_hit), "slope_stagnation": bool(slope_stagnation), "uncertainty_low": bool(uncertainty_low), "dominant_plateau": bool(dominant_plateau), "fallback_triggered": bool(fallback_triggered), "diversity_steps_left": int(diversity_steps_left), "dominant_cluster": int(dominant_cluster) if dominant_cluster is not None else -1, "dynamic_budget_cap": int(cap), "estimated_wall_seconds": float(est_wall), } ) if stop_now: break selected_df = pd.DataFrame(selected_rows).reset_index(drop=True) if not selected_df.empty: selected_df = selected_df.copy() selected_df["step"] = np.arange(selected_df.shape[0], dtype=int) trace_df = pd.DataFrame(trace_rows) return selected_df, trace_df