""" Data Diagnostic: Answers all reviewer questions about the dataset. Run: python data_diagnostic.py """ import json from collections import Counter, defaultdict import numpy as np # Load both datasets print("=" * 70) print(" DATA DIAGNOSTIC — Answering All Reviewer Questions") print("=" * 70) with open("data/knowledge_drift_unified_tier1.json") as f: tier1 = json.load(f) samples = tier1["samples"] print(f"\nTier 1: {len(samples)} samples") # ============================================================ # Q1: Class imbalance per model # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q1: CLASS IMBALANCE PER MODEL") print("=" * 70) models = ["llama2", "mistral", "llama31", "qwen25", "gemma2"] for m in models: key = f"is_drifted_{m}" d = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get(key, False)) s_ = len(samples) - d ratio = d / s_ if s_ > 0 else 0 print(f" {m:10s}: {d:5d} drifted / {s_:5d} stable (ratio 1:{s_/d:.1f})" if d > 0 else f" {m:10s}: 0 drifted") # ============================================================ # Q2: What categories map to "drifted" for each model? # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q2: CATEGORY → DRIFT LABEL MAPPING (for Qwen2.5)") print("=" * 70) cat_drift = defaultdict(lambda: {"drifted": 0, "stable": 0}) for s in samples: cat = s.get("category", "unknown") if s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False): cat_drift[cat]["drifted"] += 1 else: cat_drift[cat]["stable"] += 1 print(f" {'Category':20s} {'Drifted':>8s} {'Stable':>8s} {'%Drifted':>10s}") print(" " + "-" * 50) for cat in sorted(cat_drift.keys()): d = cat_drift[cat]["drifted"] s_ = cat_drift[cat]["stable"] pct = d / (d + s_) * 100 if (d + s_) > 0 else 0 print(f" {cat:20s} {d:8d} {s_:8d} {pct:9.1f}%") print("\n KEY QUESTION: Is known_drift labeled as drifted?") kd_drifted = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get("category") == "known_drift" and s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False)) kd_total = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get("category") == "known_drift") print(f" known_drift samples labeled drifted for Qwen: {kd_drifted}/{kd_total}") # ============================================================ # Q3: YEAR LEAKAGE — distribution of query years by drift label # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q3: YEAR LEAKAGE CHECK (Qwen2.5)") print("=" * 70) # Extract year from query or from 'year' field year_by_drift = defaultdict(lambda: {"drifted": 0, "stable": 0}) for s in samples: yr = s.get("year", "unknown") if s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False): year_by_drift[yr]["drifted"] += 1 else: year_by_drift[yr]["stable"] += 1 print(f" {'Year':>6s} {'Drifted':>8s} {'Stable':>8s} {'%Drifted':>10s}") print(" " + "-" * 36) for yr in sorted(year_by_drift.keys(), key=lambda x: str(x)): d = year_by_drift[yr]["drifted"] s_ = year_by_drift[yr]["stable"] pct = d / (d + s_) * 100 if (d + s_) > 0 else 0 print(f" {str(yr):>6s} {d:8d} {s_:8d} {pct:9.1f}%") # Check if "In 20XX" appears in queries year_in_query = Counter() for s in samples: q = s.get("query", "") for y in range(2010, 2027): if str(y) in q: year_in_query[y] += 1 break else: year_in_query["no_year"] += 1 print(f"\n Year mentioned in query text:") for yr, n in sorted(year_in_query.items(), key=lambda x: str(x)): print(f" {yr}: {n}") # CRITICAL: For drifted vs stable, what years appear in the query? print(f"\n Query year distribution for DRIFTED vs STABLE (Qwen):") drifted_years = Counter() stable_years = Counter() for s in samples: q = s.get("query", "") yr_found = None for y in range(2010, 2027): if str(y) in q: yr_found = y break if yr_found is None: yr_found = "no_year" if s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False): drifted_years[yr_found] += 1 else: stable_years[yr_found] += 1 all_years = sorted(set(list(drifted_years.keys()) + list(stable_years.keys())), key=lambda x: str(x)) print(f" {'Year':>8s} {'Drifted':>8s} {'Stable':>8s}") print(" " + "-" * 28) for yr in all_years: print(f" {str(yr):>8s} {drifted_years.get(yr, 0):8d} {stable_years.get(yr, 0):8d}") # ============================================================ # Q4: What does temporal_zone filter actually include? # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q4: TEMPORAL ZONE DISTRIBUTION") print("=" * 70) tz_counts = Counter(s.get("temporal_zone", "none") for s in samples) for tz, n in tz_counts.most_common(): print(f" {str(tz):20s}: {n:6d}") # ============================================================ # Q5: expected_answer and model_likely_answer # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q5: MODEL_LIKELY_ANSWER FIELD") print("=" * 70) has_mla = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get("model_likely_answer") and str(s.get("model_likely_answer")).strip()) print(f" Samples with model_likely_answer: {has_mla}/{len(samples)}") if has_mla > 0: # Show a few examples count = 0 for s in samples: mla = s.get("model_likely_answer", "") if mla and str(mla).strip(): ea = s.get("expected_answer", "") q = s.get("query", "")[:60] print(f" Query: {q}") print(f" Expected: {ea}") print(f" Model likely: {mla}") print(f" Drifted (qwen): {s.get('is_drifted_qwen25', False)}") print() count += 1 if count >= 3: break # ============================================================ # Q6: Noise samples (Arabic, empty relation) # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q6: NOISE SAMPLES IN TIER 1") print("=" * 70) empty_rel = sum(1 for s in samples if not s.get("relation", "").strip()) arabic = sum(1 for s in samples if any(ord(c) > 0x0600 and ord(c) < 0x06FF for c in s.get("relation", ""))) tiny_rels = [(r, n) for r, n in Counter(s.get("relation", "") for s in samples).items() if n < 20] print(f" Empty relation: {empty_rel}") print(f" Arabic relation: {arabic}") print(f" Relations with <20 samples: {tiny_rels}") # ============================================================ # Q7: Differential facts distribution across relations # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q7: DIFFERENTIAL FACTS BY RELATION") print("=" * 70) diff_by_rel = Counter() total_by_rel = Counter() for s in samples: rel = s.get("relation", "unknown") total_by_rel[rel] += 1 labels = set() for m in models: labels.add(s.get(f"is_drifted_{m}", False)) if len(labels) > 1: diff_by_rel[rel] += 1 n_diff = sum(diff_by_rel.values()) print(f" Total differential facts: {n_diff}") print(f"\n {'Relation':30s} {'Differential':>12s} {'Total':>8s} {'%Diff':>8s}") print(" " + "-" * 60) for rel in sorted(total_by_rel.keys()): d = diff_by_rel.get(rel, 0) t = total_by_rel[rel] pct = d / t * 100 if t > 0 else 0 print(f" {rel:30s} {d:12d} {t:8d} {pct:7.1f}%") # ============================================================ # Q8: Sample query format examples per category # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" Q8: SAMPLE QUERIES PER CATEGORY") print("=" * 70) for cat in ["stable", "no_drift", "known_drift", "unknown_drift"]: cat_samples = [s for s in samples if s.get("category") == cat] print(f"\n [{cat}] ({len(cat_samples)} samples)") for s in cat_samples[:3]: d_labels = " | ".join(f"{m}={'D' if s.get(f'is_drifted_{m}', False) else 'S'}" for m in models) print(f" Q: {s.get('query', '')[:80]}") print(f" A: {s.get('expected_answer', '')[:40]}") print(f" Year: {s.get('year', '?')}, Drift date: {str(s.get('drift_date', ''))[:10]}") print(f" Labels: {d_labels}") print() # ============================================================ # SUMMARY: Is year leakage a real problem? # ============================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 70) print(" VERDICT: YEAR LEAKAGE RISK") print("=" * 70) # Check if drifted samples are concentrated in recent years drifted_recent = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False) and int(s.get("year", 0)) >= 2024) drifted_total = sum(1 for s in samples if s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False)) stable_recent = sum(1 for s in samples if not s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False) and int(s.get("year", 0)) >= 2024) stable_total = sum(1 for s in samples if not s.get("is_drifted_qwen25", False)) print(f" Drifted in 2024+: {drifted_recent}/{drifted_total} ({drifted_recent/drifted_total*100:.1f}%)" if drifted_total > 0 else " No drifted samples") print(f" Stable in 2024+: {stable_recent}/{stable_total} ({stable_recent/stable_total*100:.1f}%)" if stable_total > 0 else " No stable samples") if drifted_total > 0 and stable_total > 0: d_pct = drifted_recent / drifted_total s_pct = stable_recent / stable_total if d_pct > 0.8 and s_pct < 0.3: print("\n ⚠️ HIGH RISK: Drifted samples are concentrated in recent years.") print(" The probe may be learning YEAR, not DRIFT.") elif d_pct > s_pct + 0.2: print("\n ⚠️ MODERATE RISK: Some year-drift correlation exists.") print(" Paraphrase test + year-controlled subset needed.") else: print("\n ✅ LOW RISK: Year distribution is similar across drifted/stable.") print(f"\n{'=' * 70}") print(" Run: python data_diagnostic.py") print(f"{'=' * 70}")