diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/test.csv b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/test.csv index 171aa73c940ccbd57ddf3bd0d57a8a0e67365f85..a45a54513396fd296b0d439be33a0b968e4b9d5e 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/test.csv +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/test.csv @@ -1,3 +1,3 @@ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 -oid sha256:6d974472e98b7386716cb942788233a1cb3789f9cae81719eb2531984db61646 -size 15962 +oid sha256:7ad82a9f599360efd361f23bd2be24853657c5426b86cabe28ab2a5cc96131aa +size 19686 diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/train.csv b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/train.csv index 2cec5dfef2b848f3d04661eee72a71e6e6c86e9e..cb5246b6b05c945eaf919dbd7cf3d73fda5725f2 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/train.csv +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/data/train.csv @@ -1,3 +1,3 @@ version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 -oid sha256:d5718100d60c7ff2e1a0ed725df485e7bb5ad1410f26f7fdaf3c90491916e008 -size 34267 +oid sha256:6087c6ad2640cda40a6e48c8a28804f79f05c5a5909cafcab51cdfb26cd1bc2d +size 42219 diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenpat.py b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenpat.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7d42376ef5003bd9e1b032d43e3439a1b53a288c --- /dev/null +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenpat.py @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +"""Pythagenpat won-loss formula (David Smyth, 2003) — run-environment-dependent +Pythagorean exponent. + +The constant-exponent Pythagorean formula (James gamma=2; Miller gamma~1.79) is +systematically off in extreme run environments. Pythagenpat makes the exponent +a function of the run environment, measured by runs-per-game +RPG = (R + RA) / G: + + gamma = RPG ** pat_exp + win_pct = R^gamma / (R^gamma + RA^gamma) + +with the single empirical exponent pat_exp = 0.287. Davenport (Baseball +Prospectus) endorsed this form as "simpler, more elegant, and [it] gets the +better answer over a wider range of runs scored than Pythagenport". + +David Smyth / "Patriot" (2003), popularised via Baseball Prospectus and +Tom Tango's blog; see also the Pythagorean expectation review on Wikipedia +(reference/summary_formula_pythagorean.md). + +LAW_CONSTANTS +------------- +- pat_exp = 0.287: the Pythagenpat exponent applied to runs-per-game. + (Single law constant.) + +OTHER_CONSTANTS / LOCAL_FITTABLE +-------------------------------- +None. The formula is dimensionless and uses a single league-universal +exponent rule (no per-team/per-season refit). Type I. + +Column mapping (paper -> CSV): + R (season total runs scored) -> X[:, 0] + RA (season total runs allowed) -> X[:, 1] + G (games played in the season) -> X[:, 2] (sets the run environment) + +Notes: +- Unlike the scale-invariant constant-exponent forms, Pythagenpat needs the + games count G to form runs-per-game RPG = (R+RA)/G. +- Reduces to a constant exponent only if RPG is constant; here it adapts to + each season's scoring level, improving fit in deadball / steroids-era + extremes. +""" + +import numpy as np + +USED_INPUTS = ["R", "RA", "G"] +PAPER_REF = "summary_formula_pythagorean.md" +EQUATION_LOC = "Pythagenpat (Smyth 2003): gamma = ((R+RA)/G)^0.287; win = R^gamma/(R^gamma+RA^gamma)" + +LAW_CONSTANTS = { + "pat_exp": 0.287, # Smyth (2003) Pythagenpat exponent on runs-per-game +} +OTHER_CONSTANTS = {} +LOCAL_FITTABLE = {} # Type I + + +def predict(X: np.ndarray, pat_exp: float) -> np.ndarray: + """Pythagenpat win percentage with a run-environment-dependent exponent. + + X: (n, 3) — columns R (runs scored), RA (runs allowed), G (games). + Returns array of shape (n,) — win_pct in (0, 1). + """ + R = np.asarray(X[:, 0], dtype=float) + RA = np.asarray(X[:, 1], dtype=float) + G = np.asarray(X[:, 2], dtype=float) + rpg = (R + RA) / G + gamma = np.power(rpg, pat_exp) + Rg = np.power(R, gamma) + RAg = np.power(RA, gamma) + return Rg / (Rg + RAg) diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenport.py b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenport.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..318689ad865220bc0d93ecea69854544630e571d --- /dev/null +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/pythagenport.py @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +"""Pythagenport won-loss formula (Clay Davenport & Keith Woolner, Baseball +Prospectus, 1999) — run-environment-dependent Pythagorean exponent. + +The first widely-used variable-exponent refinement of the Pythagorean formula. +The exponent grows logarithmically with the run environment (runs-per-game +RPG = (R + RA) / G): + + gamma = slope * log10(RPG) + offset (slope = 1.5, offset = 0.45) + win_pct = R^gamma / (R^gamma + RA^gamma) + +Davenport & Woolner reported it works within run environments of roughly +4-40 runs per game and lowers RMSE versus the fixed exponent 2. (Later +superseded for simplicity by Pythagenpat; see formulas/pythagenpat.py.) + +Davenport, C. & Woolner, K. (1999), Baseball Prospectus; reproduced in the +Pythagorean expectation review on Wikipedia +(reference/summary_formula_pythagorean.md). + +LAW_CONSTANTS +------------- +- slope = 1.5 : coefficient on log10(runs-per-game) +- offset = 0.45 : additive exponent offset + (Two law constants — the published Davenport-Woolner coefficients.) + +OTHER_CONSTANTS / LOCAL_FITTABLE +-------------------------------- +None. League-universal exponent rule, no per-team/per-season refit. Type I. + +Column mapping (paper -> CSV): + R (season total runs scored) -> X[:, 0] + RA (season total runs allowed) -> X[:, 1] + G (games played in the season) -> X[:, 2] (sets the run environment) + +Notes: +- Implemented in the DIRECT Pythagorean form: the exponent gamma applies to R + and RA directly (gamma ~ 1.6-2.7 over MLB history), NOT to a log-odds / + sigma-of-log10 variant. Needs the games count G to form RPG = (R+RA)/G. +""" + +import numpy as np + +USED_INPUTS = ["R", "RA", "G"] +PAPER_REF = "summary_formula_pythagorean.md" +EQUATION_LOC = "Pythagenport (Davenport & Woolner 1999): gamma = 1.5*log10((R+RA)/G)+0.45" + +LAW_CONSTANTS = { + "slope": 1.5, # Davenport-Woolner coefficient on log10(RPG) + "offset": 0.45, # Davenport-Woolner exponent offset +} +OTHER_CONSTANTS = {} +LOCAL_FITTABLE = {} # Type I + + +def predict(X: np.ndarray, slope: float, offset: float) -> np.ndarray: + """Pythagenport win percentage with a log-RPG-dependent exponent. + + X: (n, 3) — columns R (runs scored), RA (runs allowed), G (games). + Returns array of shape (n,) — win_pct in (0, 1). + """ + R = np.asarray(X[:, 0], dtype=float) + RA = np.asarray(X[:, 1], dtype=float) + G = np.asarray(X[:, 2], dtype=float) + rpg = (R + RA) / G + gamma = slope * np.log10(rpg) + offset + Rg = np.power(R, gamma) + RAg = np.power(RA, gamma) + return Rg / (Rg + RAg) diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/reference_metrics.json index 84ccb1152ac478630514fd1995d8983e62e261dd..77e2402e1f341390d78bce9a2a7a31d96a2820fb 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -10,15 +10,15 @@ }, "local_fittable": [], "metrics": { - "log_mae": 0.018073578706717868, + "rmse": 0.02581841049545397, "mae": 0.02035253889196662, - "mape": 0.0416209828963854, - "mdae": 0.016923316811408906, "mse": 0.0006665903205117677, - "n_finite": 938, + "mdae": 0.016923316811408906, + "smape": 0.041594077969012565, + "mape": 0.0416209828963854, + "log_mae": 0.018073578706717868, "r2": 0.8723463499046444, - "rmse": 0.02581841049545397, - "smape": 0.041594077969012565 + "n_finite": 938 }, "other_constants": {}, "paper_ref": "summary_formula_miller_2007.md" @@ -33,24 +33,71 @@ }, "local_fittable": [], "metrics": { - "log_mae": 0.0179324763805722, + "rmse": 0.025367518227170174, "mae": 0.02012816862599297, - "mape": 0.041496949291881115, - "mdae": 0.01727645471286568, "mse": 0.000643510981005811, - "n_finite": 938, + "mdae": 0.01727645471286568, + "smape": 0.04127015407815537, + "mape": 0.041496949291881115, + "log_mae": 0.0179324763805722, "r2": 0.8767660989454998, - "rmse": 0.025367518227170174, - "smape": 0.04127015407815537 + "n_finite": 938 }, "other_constants": {}, "paper_ref": "summary_formula_miller_2007.md" + }, + "pythagenport": { + "equation_loc": "Pythagenport (Davenport & Woolner 1999): gamma = 1.5*log10((R+RA)/G)+0.45", + "error": null, + "failed": false, + "kind": "reference", + "law_constants": { + "slope": 1.5, + "offset": 0.45 + }, + "local_fittable": [], + "metrics": { + "rmse": 0.025279362728894618, + "mae": 0.020038159053313454, + "mse": 0.0006390461799790264, + "mdae": 0.017035062462379347, + "smape": 0.04101285775536915, + "mape": 0.04112307462482883, + "log_mae": 0.017820564889759735, + "r2": 0.8776211190837775, + "n_finite": 938 + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_pythagorean.md" + }, + "pythagenpat": { + "equation_loc": "Pythagenpat (Smyth 2003): gamma = ((R+RA)/G)^0.287; win = R^g/(R^g+RA^g)", + "error": null, + "failed": false, + "kind": "reference", + "law_constants": { + "pat_exp": 0.287 + }, + "local_fittable": [], + "metrics": { + "rmse": 0.02526633301488769, + "mae": 0.02003358099347757, + "mse": 0.0006383875840192037, + "mdae": 0.01712980262652508, + "smape": 0.041005661779374376, + "mape": 0.04112240460441076, + "log_mae": 0.017817425550055974, + "r2": 0.8777472417945676, + "n_finite": 938 + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_pythagorean.md" } }, "derived_caps": { "fit_timeout_seconds": null, "max_init_size_per_param": 1, - "max_law_constants": 1, + "max_law_constants": 2, "max_local_params": 0 }, "metric_declared": "rmse", @@ -58,4 +105,4 @@ "reference_baseline_id": null, "task": "baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct", "type": "typeI" -} +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/metadata.yaml b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/metadata.yaml index 391c5083b669a6cf74e51ed23cb46f7328f415fa..ff27004d3c3a9f9c41a6eceabc1dff95a5cda95b 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/metadata.yaml +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/metadata.yaml @@ -15,19 +15,32 @@ target: symbol: "W%" unit: "" description: Season win percentage — fraction of decided games won, W / (W + L). - range: [0.12, 0.90] + range: + train: [0.12987, 0.898734] + test: [0.265432, 0.716667] inputs: - name: R symbol: RS unit: runs description: Season total runs scored by the team. - range: [219, 1220] + range: + train: [238, 1220] + test: [219, 1009] - name: RA symbol: RA unit: runs description: Season total runs allowed by the team. - range: [209, 1252] + range: + train: [229, 1252] + test: [209, 1103] + - name: G + symbol: G + unit: games + description: Games played in the season. Sets the run environment via runs-per-game RPG = (R + RA) / G, used by the run-environment-dependent exponent forms (Pythagenport, Pythagenpat). The constant-exponent forms (James, Miller) ignore it. Does not leak the target — G is the games total, not the win/loss split, so win_pct = W/(W+L) cannot be recovered from it. + range: + train: [52, 165] + test: [58, 163] data_files: train: data/train.csv # seasons 1872-1989 (historical era) @@ -53,13 +66,19 @@ n_test: 938 # 2026-05-28: removed davenport_2014 baseline (unsourced LAW a=1.50; σ-of-log10 form gives # effective γ≈0.65 vs Davenport-Woolner 1999 published γ≈1.83 in direct-Pythagorean form; # no PDF on disk; half-integrated wiring). +# 2026-06-04: released input G (games); added run-environment-dependent baselines +# pythagenport (Davenport-Woolner 1999, γ=1.5·log10(RPG)+0.45, 2 law constants) and +# pythagenpat (Smyth 2003, γ=RPG^0.287, 1 constant), RPG=(R+RA)/G — the CORRECT +# direct-Pythagorean form (not the σ-of-log10 mistake of the removed davenport_2014). +# Raised caps.max_law_constants 1→2 for Pythagenport. pythagenpat is the new best +# baseline (rmse 0.02527). G does not leak win_pct (games total, not W/L split). # Final priors: 3 distractors, 0 candidates. priors: - name: games_per_season_modern value: 162.0 unit: games - description: Number of regular-season games per team in the modern MLB schedule (since 1961 AL / 1962 NL). Not consumed by the Pythagorean formula, which is scale-invariant in R and RA. - source: Historical MLB schedule; not used directly in the Pythagorean formula (formula is scale-invariant in R, RA). + description: Number of regular-season games per team in the modern MLB schedule (since 1961 AL / 1962 NL). A fixed constant — distractor; the run-environment forms use the actual per-season games input G (which varies, e.g. 52–165 here), not this constant, and the constant-exponent forms ignore games entirely. + source: Historical MLB schedule. Distractor — not a parameter of any baseline (variable-exponent forms read the per-row G input instead). _role: distractor - name: innings_per_game value: 9.0 @@ -83,7 +102,7 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 0.0258 + rmse: 0.02582 r2: 0.8723 - id: miller_2007 label: "Miller (2007) — Pythagorean formula, gamma = 1.79 (least-squares)" @@ -93,11 +112,31 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 0.0254 + rmse: 0.02537 r2: 0.8768 + - id: pythagenport + label: "Davenport & Woolner (1999) — Pythagenport, gamma = 1.5*log10(RPG)+0.45, RPG=(R+RA)/G" + formula_file: formulas/pythagenport.py + reference_pdf: null + n_law_constants: 2 + n_other_constants: 0 + n_local_params: 0 + measured: + rmse: 0.02528 + r2: 0.8776 + - id: pythagenpat + label: "Smyth (2003) — Pythagenpat, gamma = ((R+RA)/G)^0.287 (run-environment exponent)" + formula_file: formulas/pythagenpat.py + reference_pdf: null + n_law_constants: 1 + n_other_constants: 0 + n_local_params: 0 + measured: + rmse: 0.02527 + r2: 0.8777 caps: - max_law_constants: 1 + max_law_constants: 2 # raised 1→2 (2026-06-04) for Pythagenport (slope, offset) max_local_params: 0 max_init_size_per_param: 1 fit_timeout_seconds: null @@ -116,4 +155,4 @@ validity_rubrics: - "predicted win_pct is above 0.5 when R exceeds RA and below 0.5 when R is less than RA" - "swapping R and RA maps the prediction to its complement about 0.5" -best_baseline: 0.0253675 # miller_2007 — rmse (lower is better); regenerated 2026-05-30 +best_baseline: 0.0252660 # pythagenpat — rmse (lower is better); regenerated 2026-06-04 after adding G + Pythagenport/Pythagenpat diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/prep_data.py b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/prep_data.py index 101a0f9ceb2290d10375a119379f8f9a2fbc34bf..0fe7041360a0b4c98020aefe07fac0926c14a51b 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/prep_data.py +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/prep_data.py @@ -11,6 +11,12 @@ License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 (Lahman Baseball Database). Column 0 win_pct : float, dimensionless — win fraction W/(W+L) (SR target) Column 1 R : int → float, runs — season total runs scored by the team Column 2 RA : int → float, runs — season total runs allowed by the team +Column 3 G : int → float, games — games played in the season. Released so + the run-environment-dependent exponent baselines work + (Pythagenport, Davenport 1999; Pythagenpat, Smyth 2003), + whose exponent is set by runs-per-game RPG = (R+RA)/G. + Does NOT leak win_pct: G is the games total, not the W/L + split, so win_pct = W/(W+L) cannot be recovered from G. Dropped from working CSV (not written to released files): 'W' — tautology leak: win_pct = W/(W+L) by definition (data_spec §9.4) @@ -18,7 +24,6 @@ Dropped from working CSV (not written to released files): 'yearID' — auxiliary bookkeeping; not a declared SR input 'lgID' — categorical; not a declared SR input 'teamID' — string id; not a declared SR input - 'G' — games played; auxiliary (not in any baseline's USED_INPUTS) All other Lahman columns (HR, BB, ERA, …) — not relevant to Pythagorean formula === TYPE I vs TYPE II DECISION === @@ -108,7 +113,7 @@ EXPECTED_SHA256 = "827bef5af12158eeb3d18a4a3f54ff846e395965b47c09b2564ad7bb29c5e MIN_W_PLUS_L = 50 # minimum decided games; excludes ultra-short seasons TRAIN_YEAR_MAX = 1989 # inclusive; train = yearID <= TRAIN_YEAR_MAX TEST_YEAR_MIN = 1990 # inclusive; test = yearID >= TEST_YEAR_MIN -OUT_COLS = ["win_pct", "R", "RA"] +OUT_COLS = ["win_pct", "R", "RA", "G"] # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/README.md b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/README.md index 0fa76c6e6cc9b9f9b286ca1387bbf3af5b611725..dc3ff245dc1d2f2d8a4517e168f9a74529033b7d 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/README.md +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/README.md @@ -5,8 +5,15 @@ | `miller_2007.pdf` | Steven J. Miller (2007). "A Derivation of the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula in Baseball." *Chance* 20(1):40–48. American Statistical Association. | **Primary baseline.** Provides the Weibull-distribution derivation of the Pythagorean formula; Eq. (1.2) PDF p. 1 and Theorem 2.2 / Eq. (2.6) PDF p. 4. Empirical gamma = 1.79 (least-squares). | | `miller_2007.txt` | Text extract of `miller_2007.pdf` via `pdf_to_text.py`. | Auto-generated; used for coefficient grepping. | | `miller_2007.bib` | BibTeX entry for Miller (2007). | `refkey = miller2007pythag`. | -| `refs.bib` | Combined bibliography for all references cited in this task (Miller 2007, James 1980 citation, Davenport-Woolner 1999 citation, Lahman DB). | Retained from SRC for completeness; per-paper `.bib` files are the authoritative splits. | +| `refs.bib` | Combined bibliography (Miller 2007, James 1980, Davenport-Woolner 1999, Smyth 2003, Lahman DB). | Retained from SRC for completeness; per-paper `.bib` files are the authoritative splits. | | `summary_formula_miller_2007.md` | Page-level summary of Miller (2007) for this benchmark. | Records Eq. (1.2) provenance, gamma values, and column mapping. | +| `summary_formula_pythagorean.md` | Summary of the full constant- and variable-exponent ladder (James / Miller / Pythagenport / Pythagenpat). | Equations, the RPG=(R+RA)/G dependence, properties, and measured fit. Referenced by `pythagenport.py` / `pythagenpat.py`. | + +Baselines: `james_1980` (γ=2), `miller_2007` (γ=1.79), `pythagenport` +(Davenport-Woolner 1999, γ=1.5·log10(RPG)+0.45), `pythagenpat` (Smyth 2003, +γ=RPG^0.287). The two variable-exponent forms use the released games input `G` +via RPG=(R+RA)/G; `pythagenpat` is the best baseline. W and L remain withheld +(they would leak `win_pct=W/(W+L)`). --- @@ -17,5 +24,7 @@ - James (1980) Baseball Abstract: citation-only; no DOI or PDF mirrored. - Davenport-Woolner (1999) Baseball Prospectus: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/342/ — citation-only. +- Smyth (2003) Pythagenpat: citation-only; see + https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation - Lahman Database: https://sabr.org/lahman-database/ ; https://github.com/cbwinslow/baseballdatabank diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/refs.bib b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/refs.bib index 7e1c4e69d9f02820f0ee684f8d632897f17ac080..907d912cfa3ccee37121d793264b7c9ae5e0cc8e 100644 --- a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/refs.bib +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/refs.bib @@ -2,10 +2,12 @@ % % Single OA primary reference is Miller 2007 (Chance), whose author-mirror % PDF at Williams College is bundled in this directory as miller_2007.pdf. -% The James (1980) "Baseball Abstract" and Davenport-Woolner (1999) -% "Revisiting the Pythagorean Theorem" entries are citation-only (no PDF -% is mirrored); they are the historical origins of the formula and the -% gamma=1.83 refinement respectively. +% The James (1980) "Baseball Abstract", Davenport-Woolner (1999) +% "Revisiting the Pythagorean Theorem" (Pythagenport), and Smyth (2003) +% "Pythagenpat" entries are citation-only (no PDF is mirrored); they are the +% historical origin (gamma=2), the first run-environment-dependent exponent +% (gamma = 1.5*log10(RPG)+0.45), and its simpler successor +% (gamma = RPG^0.287), respectively, with RPG = (R+RA)/G. @article{miller2007pythag, author = {Steven J. Miller}, @@ -37,6 +39,15 @@ note = {Refines the exponent to gamma about 1.83 by fitting MLB team-season records. Citation-only; no PDF is mirrored. This is the source of the modern saber-metrics "Pythagenport" exponent that improves on Bill James' gamma = 2 in modern high-scoring eras.} } +@misc{smyth2003pythagenpat, + author = {David Smyth}, + title = {{Pythagenpat}: A Run-Environment-Dependent {Pythagorean} Exponent}, + year = {2003}, + howpublished = {Sabermetrics community (David Smyth / "Patriot"); popularised via Baseball Prospectus and Tom Tango's blog}, + url = {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation}, + note = {Sets the Pythagorean exponent from the run environment as gamma = ((R+RA)/G)^0.287, where (R+RA)/G is runs per game. Endorsed by Davenport as "simpler, more elegant, and [it] gets the better answer over a wider range of runs scored than Pythagenport". Citation-only; no PDF mirrored. Requires the games count G (released as a task input).} +} + @misc{lahman2025db, author = {Sean Lahman and {Chadwick Baseball Bureau}}, title = {Lahman Baseball Database ({baseballdatabank}), {Teams.csv}}, diff --git a/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/summary_formula_pythagorean.md b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/summary_formula_pythagorean.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..016d3ba47aa85fb7be9780f2b07db3df69526705 --- /dev/null +++ b/baseball_pythagorean_winpct_lahman__win_pct/reference/summary_formula_pythagorean.md @@ -0,0 +1,62 @@ +# Pythagorean win-expectation: the constant- and variable-exponent family + +This task's target is season win fraction `win_pct = W/(W+L)`, predicted from +runs scored `R` and runs allowed `RA` (and, for the variable-exponent forms, +games played `G`). All four reference baselines share the **Pythagorean ratio +form** + + win_pct = R^gamma / (R^gamma + RA^gamma) + +and differ only in how the exponent `gamma` is set. (W and L are NOT released — +`win_pct = W/(W+L)` is an arithmetic identity, so they would leak the target.) + +## The exponent ladder + +| baseline | exponent `gamma` | constants | source | +|---|---|---|---| +| `james_1980` | `2` (fixed) | 1 | Bill James, 1980 — gives the "Pythagorean" name (sum of squares) | +| `miller_2007` | `1.79` (fixed) | 1 | Miller 2007, least-squares over 14 AL-2004 teams (Weibull derivation) | +| `pythagenport` | `1.5·log10(RPG) + 0.45` | 2 | Davenport & Woolner, Baseball Prospectus 1999 | +| `pythagenpat` | `RPG^0.287` | 1 | David Smyth, 2003 | + +where **`RPG = (R + RA) / G`** is runs per game (needs `G`). + +## Why the variable-exponent forms + +A fixed exponent is systematically off in extreme run environments (deadball +era ~3.5 R/G; steroids era ~5.4 R/G). Making `gamma` grow with the run +environment corrects this. Davenport reports Pythagenport works for ~4–40 R/G +and lowers RMSE versus exponent 2; he later endorsed Pythagenpat as "simpler, +more elegant, and [it] gets the better answer over a wider range of runs scored +than Pythagenport". Pythagenpat is the modern sabermetric standard. + +## Structural properties (shared by all four; checked by the task rubrics) + +- bounded in (0, 1); equals 0.5 when R = RA; +- monotone increasing in R, decreasing in RA; +- swapping R↔RA maps the prediction to its complement about 0.5 + (the exponent depends only on the symmetric `R+RA`, so it is unchanged); +- the constant-exponent forms are scale-invariant in (R, RA); the + variable-exponent forms additionally use `G` to fix the run environment. + +## Measured fit on this task's test set (1990–2021, 938 team-seasons) + +| baseline | rmse | r2 | +|---|---|---| +| james_1980 | 0.02582 | 0.8723 | +| miller_2007 | 0.02537 | 0.8768 | +| pythagenport | 0.02528 | 0.8776 | +| pythagenpat | 0.02527 | 0.8777 | + +The variable-exponent forms fit best but only marginally: the RMSE floor +(~0.025) is set by the irreducible season-to-season luck/variance of win% at a +given run ratio, not by the exponent. `pythagenpat` is the best baseline +(lowest rmse with a single constant). + +## Sources + +- Miller, S. J. (2007), *Chance* 20(1):40–48 (`miller_2007.pdf`). +- James, B. (1980), *Baseball Abstract* (citation-only). +- Davenport, C. & Woolner, K. (1999), Baseball Prospectus (citation-only). +- Smyth, D. (2003), "Pythagenpat" (citation-only). +- Pythagorean expectation review: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation diff --git a/binary_pulsar_post_keplerian_atnf__PBDOT/metadata.yaml b/binary_pulsar_post_keplerian_atnf__PBDOT/metadata.yaml index ff67674d58b629aa2a116401197f3e0a85d6e2e5..1df45ab80d326fc2abb16309f765bc62ce4e36b6 100644 --- a/binary_pulsar_post_keplerian_atnf__PBDOT/metadata.yaml +++ b/binary_pulsar_post_keplerian_atnf__PBDOT/metadata.yaml @@ -9,20 +9,6 @@ license: "GPL-3.0-or-later (ATNF psrcat v2.8.0 distribution, CSIRO/ATNF); pulsar context: >- A binary pulsar is a compact system in which a pulsar orbits another neutron star, studied in relativistic astrophysics as a test of gravity. -problem_statement: >- - Predict the GR-driven orbital-period derivative (PBDOT, dimensionless - s/s, always negative) of compact-DNS binary pulsars catalogued in - ATNF psrcat v2.8.0 from (Pb [days], e [dimensionless]) alone. The - split places near-circular systems (e < 0.05, predominantly recycled - millisecond pulsars in NS-WD orbits whose Pb-decay is dominated by - Galactic-acceleration kinematic terms rather than GR quadrupole - losses) in train (71 rows) and the eccentric GR-dominated compact - DNS systems (e >= 0.05, PBDOT < 0, Pb < 1 d) in test (10 rows, after FM-B8 dedup of the J0737-3039A/B physical-alias double-count). - The hard constraints to recover are the GR quadrupole prefactor - (192 pi / 5), the eccentricity-enhancement polynomial coefficients - (73/24, 37/96, exponent 7/2), and the chirp-mass scaling (5/3 power) - of Peters 1963 / Will 2014. - target: name: PBDOT symbol: dot_P_b @@ -36,8 +22,8 @@ target: # cluster contamination); the GR-valid regime is the test subset # [-5.294e-12, -1.366e-13]. See prep_data.py "Honest train-set limitation". range: - - -3.5e-9 - - 6.0e-11 + train: [-3.5e-09, 6e-11] + test: [-5.294e-12, -1.366e-13] # === Wave-17 column cleanup, 2026-05-27 === # Dropped omdot, gamma -- 74.6 % / 98.6 % NaN in train (most ATNF binaries @@ -55,15 +41,15 @@ inputs: unit: d description: Keplerian orbital period of the binary system. range: - - 0.06 - - 1236.73 + train: [0.066231, 175.461] + test: [0.078488, 0.420737] - name: e symbol: e unit: "" description: Orbital eccentricity, dimensionless and bounded in [0, 1). range: - - 0.0 - - 0.91 + train: [0, 0.027412] + test: [0.063837, 0.681395] data_files: train: data/train.csv # near-circular MSP-dominated split: e < 0.05, 71 rows @@ -198,7 +184,6 @@ caps: max_init_size_per_param: 1 fit_timeout_seconds: null -reference_baseline_id: peters_1963 # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: @@ -213,18 +198,3 @@ validity_rubrics: - "predicted PBDOT remains defined throughout the physical input domain Pb > 0 and 0 <= e < 1" best_baseline: 1.21727e-13 # peters_1963 — rmse (lower is better); regenerated 2026-05-30 - -wave17_notes: >- - Wave-17 rescue (2026-05-27). User flagged Wave-16 will_2014 baseline as - algebraic re-arrangement of damour_1991 ("ladder padding", numerically - identical predictions to 6 digits). User also rejected the omdot/gamma - 74.6%/98.6% NaN columns as "documented but not fixed". Wave-17 actions: - (1) deleted will_2014.py and damour_1991.py from formulas/; (2) dropped - omdot, gamma from CSV schema; (3) added peters_1963.py using only (Pb, e) - + canonical DNS chirp mass M_c=1.20 M_sun (Antoniadis 2013); (4) refreshed - ATNF data to psrcat v2.8.0 (+1 DNS: J1946+2052); (5) added Pb<1 d test - filter (drops 4 cluster/Be-star contaminated systems). Result: 0-NaN - dataset, 10 GR-clean test rows (11 from the v2.8.0 refresh minus 1 J0737-3039A/B - physical-alias dedup per FM-B8), R^2 0.994 (was 0.78), single - live baseline (SB tag accepted -- no genuinely-distinct 2nd form exists - with [Pb, e]-only inputs). See WAVE17_ATTEMPT.md for full diff. diff --git a/bird_flight_speed_alerstam__Ue/metadata.yaml b/bird_flight_speed_alerstam__Ue/metadata.yaml index cceedf36583d435c898ce084703f61d8d78f7c7e..4bd0a5b103f2def5e06ef976b8d117a5430c006f 100644 --- a/bird_flight_speed_alerstam__Ue/metadata.yaml +++ b/bird_flight_speed_alerstam__Ue/metadata.yaml @@ -16,19 +16,25 @@ target: symbol: Ue unit: m/s description: Mean equivalent airspeed corrected to sea-level air density, measured by tracking radar during migratory flapping flight. - range: [6.70, 23.60] + range: + train: [6.7, 20.1] + test: [7.7, 23.6] inputs: - name: mass_kg symbol: m unit: kg description: Mean total body mass of the species. - range: [0.009, 10.597] + range: + train: [0.009, 0.49] + test: [0.523, 10.597] - name: wing_area_m2 symbol: S unit: m^2 description: Mean projected wing area of the species (both wings plus body between wings). - range: [0.0073, 0.8824] + range: + train: [0.0073, 0.1568] + test: [0.0474, 0.8824] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: diff --git a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mdisk/metadata.yaml b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mdisk/metadata.yaml index 59da464fd991599885e1284864bbe3ef0a0e0cf2..45c6491ed684438fe193b7da640328212ade1ead 100644 --- a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mdisk/metadata.yaml +++ b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mdisk/metadata.yaml @@ -7,51 +7,51 @@ target: unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the bound, post-merger accretion disk surrounding the merger remnant, measured in solar masses. range: - - 0.0 - - 0.31 + train: [0.0001, 0.2282] + test: [3e-05, 0.307517] inputs: - name: M1 symbol: M_1 unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the lighter pre-merger neutron star, in solar masses, under the convention M_1 <= M_2. range: - - 1.0 - - 1.71 + train: [1.2, 1.71] + test: [1, 1.44] - name: M2 symbol: M_2 unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the heavier pre-merger neutron star, in solar masses, under the convention M_1 <= M_2. range: - - 1.2 - - 1.86 + train: [1.2, 1.71] + test: [1.32, 1.856] - name: C1 symbol: C_1 unit: "" description: Dimensionless compactness of the lighter pre-merger neutron star, defined as G M / (R c^2) for that star. range: - - 0.11 - - 0.21 + train: [0.135, 0.205] + test: [0.119838, 0.195] - name: C2 symbol: C_2 unit: "" description: Dimensionless compactness of the heavier pre-merger neutron star, defined as G M / (R c^2) for that star. range: - - 0.13 - - 0.24 + train: [0.138, 0.219] + test: [0.147, 0.230916] - name: q symbol: q unit: "" description: Mass ratio of the binary, defined as the lighter over the heavier neutron-star gravitational mass, so 0 < q <= 1. range: - - 0.54 - - 1.0 + train: [0.774194, 1] + test: [0.549569, 1] - name: Lambda_tilde symbol: Λ̃ unit: "" description: Binary-averaged dimensionless tidal deformability, the mass-weighted combination of the two stars' individual tidal deformabilities that enters the leading finite-size term of the gravitational waveform. range: - - 116.0 - - 1726.28 + train: [116, 1439] + test: [208, 1726.28] priors: [] diff --git a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mej/metadata.yaml b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mej/metadata.yaml index 2415abc737359a0f9e9e6d91ff5aac0aca9feb24..cc7d89a642290b74e43f242f6d5feda054535540 100644 --- a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mej/metadata.yaml +++ b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__Mej/metadata.yaml @@ -7,65 +7,65 @@ target: unit: M_sun description: Dynamical ejecta mass expelled at merger, in solar masses. range: - - "9e-06" - - 0.019 + train: [9.88678e-06, 0.00415131] + test: [0.00012, 0.01802] inputs: - name: M1 symbol: M_1 unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the primary (heavier) neutron star. range: - - 1.2 - - 1.86 + train: [1.2, 1.71] + test: [1.32, 1.856] - name: M2 symbol: M_2 unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the secondary (lighter) neutron star. range: - - 1.02 - - 1.71 + train: [1.18, 1.71] + test: [1.02, 1.44] - name: Mb1 symbol: M^b_1 unit: M_sun description: Baryonic (rest) mass of the primary neutron star. range: - - 0.97 - - 2.13 + train: [0.974405, 1.92768] + test: [1.233, 2.124] - name: Mb2 symbol: M^b_2 unit: M_sun description: Baryonic (rest) mass of the secondary neutron star. range: - - 0.88 - - 1.93 + train: [0.887277, 1.92768] + test: [1.086, 1.844] - name: C1 symbol: C_1 unit: "" description: Compactness of the primary neutron star, defined as G*M/(R*c^2); dimensionless. range: - - 0.134 - - 0.231 + train: [0.13477, 0.205] + test: [0.137626, 0.230916] - name: C2 symbol: C_2 unit: "" description: Compactness of the secondary neutron star, defined as G*M/(R*c^2); dimensionless. range: - - 0.119 - - 0.205 + train: [0.125, 0.205] + test: [0.119838, 0.175] - name: q symbol: q unit: "" description: Binary mass ratio (lighter over heavier component), dimensionless and in (0, 1]. range: - - 0.549 - - 1.0 + train: [0.766234, 1] + test: [0.549569, 1] - name: Lambda_tilde symbol: Λ̃ unit: "" description: Effective binary tidal deformability combining the two component tidal deformabilities; dimensionless. range: - - 116.0 - - 1689.0 + train: [116.006, 1688.41] + test: [340.802, 1437.16] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] diff --git a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__vej/metadata.yaml b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__vej/metadata.yaml index 69954bd516f0f11a6d9622781fc562016e2d4517..672fa6a9e91879706599a0c807fdd33bd6451569 100644 --- a/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__vej/metadata.yaml +++ b/bns_merger_disk_ejecta__vej/metadata.yaml @@ -7,51 +7,51 @@ target: unit: c description: Mass-averaged terminal velocity of the dynamical ejecta in units of the speed of light. range: - - 0.11 - - 0.45 + train: [0.119726, 0.45] + test: [0.113706, 0.34] inputs: - name: q symbol: q unit: "" description: Binary mass ratio of the heavier to the lighter neutron star (≥ 1). range: - - 1.0 - - 1.82 + train: [1, 1.3353] + test: [1.4267, 2.05932] - name: Lambda_tilde symbol: Λ̃ unit: "" description: Reduced (mass-weighted) tidal deformability of the binary. range: - - 116.0 - - 1689.0 + train: [49.3937, 3196.45] + test: [251.356, 2450.56] - name: M1 symbol: M₁ unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the heavier neutron star. range: - - 1.2 - - 1.86 + train: [1.2, 2] + test: [1.5, 2] - name: M2 symbol: M₂ unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the lighter neutron star. range: - - 1.02 - - 1.71 + train: [1.18, 2] + test: [0.944, 1.35] - name: C1 symbol: C₁ unit: "" description: Compactness of the heavier neutron star, defined as G M / (c² R). range: - - 0.13 - - 0.24 + train: [0.120542, 0.230834] + test: [0.156, 0.230916] - name: C2 symbol: C₂ unit: "" description: Compactness of the lighter neutron star, defined as G M / (c² R). range: - - 0.11 - - 0.21 + train: [0.120542, 0.230834] + test: [0.103, 0.150939] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] diff --git a/bns_postmerger_waveform_core__f2/metadata.yaml b/bns_postmerger_waveform_core__f2/metadata.yaml index 60d90f0153d000072279887044400166da7baef9..dd4a3d6296acc99cf92522f01cf95971855a04e8 100644 --- a/bns_postmerger_waveform_core__f2/metadata.yaml +++ b/bns_postmerger_waveform_core__f2/metadata.yaml @@ -14,44 +14,60 @@ target: symbol: f₂ unit: kHz description: Dominant post-merger gravitational-wave spectral peak frequency of the BNS remnant, extracted from high-resolution NR simulations. - range: [1.77, 3.74] + range: + train: [1.87612, 3.56651] + test: [1.77242, 3.73145] inputs: - name: mass symbol: M unit: M_sun description: Total gravitational mass of the binary system, m1 + m2. - range: [2.40, 3.41] + range: + train: [2.4, 3.40006] + test: [2.49989, 2.88803] - name: q symbol: q unit: "" description: Binary mass ratio m2/m1 with primary mass m1 >= m2, so q lies in (0, 1]. - range: [0.48, 1.00] + range: + train: [0.816955, 1] + test: [0.485607, 0.799999] - name: kap2t symbol: κ₂ᵀ unit: "" description: Combined tidal coupling constant of the binary, an EOS-sensitive aggregate of component tidal deformabilities weighted by masses. - range: [68.00, 1132.00] + range: + train: [70.388, 436.106] + test: [68.6903, 1131.9] - name: lamT symbol: Λ̃ unit: "" description: Combined (mass-weighted) tidal deformability of the binary system. - range: [364.00, 6256.00] + range: + train: [375.403, 2325.9] + test: [364.653, 6255.34] - name: m1 symbol: m₁ unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the primary (heavier) neutron star. - range: [1.20, 1.95] + range: + train: [1.2, 1.70003] + test: [1.39959, 1.94401] - name: m2 symbol: m₂ unit: M_sun description: Gravitational mass of the secondary (lighter) neutron star. - range: [0.94, 1.71] + range: + train: [1.10646, 1.70003] + test: [0.944024, 1.2226] - name: M_chirp symbol: ℳ unit: M_sun description: Chirp mass of the binary, (m1 * m2)^(3/5) / (m1 + m2)^(1/5). - range: [1.04, 1.48] + range: + train: [1.04466, 1.47996] + test: [1.06186, 1.18859] data_files: train: data/train.csv # q >= 0.80 (near-equal-mass binaries) diff --git a/budyko_partitioning_mach__et_over_p/metadata.yaml b/budyko_partitioning_mach__et_over_p/metadata.yaml index 6c9bd551406c655ff10b1530f835cd9be86f27b8..502396da6fb32ac7e9d8e6ae30b446dc935beb52 100644 --- a/budyko_partitioning_mach__et_over_p/metadata.yaml +++ b/budyko_partitioning_mach__et_over_p/metadata.yaml @@ -16,54 +16,74 @@ target: symbol: E/P unit: "" description: Long-term mean annual ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation; a dimensionless evaporative fraction bounded between 0 and 1 for nearly all natural catchments. - range: [0.0, 1.13] + range: + train: [0.001681, 0.959384] + test: [0.501995, 0.998182] inputs: - name: pet_over_p symbol: φ unit: "" description: Climate aridity index — ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration to mean annual precipitation. Values below 1 indicate energy-limited (humid) conditions; values above 1 indicate water-limited (arid) conditions. - range: [0.22, 4.51] + range: + train: [0.223204, 1.49618] + test: [1.50951, 4.50998] - name: ppt_mm_yr symbol: P unit: mm yr⁻¹ description: Mean annual precipitation over the 1981–2010 period. - range: [251.91, 3118.13] + range: + train: [511, 3118.13] + test: [251.91, 1021.43] - name: pet_mm_yr symbol: Ep unit: mm yr⁻¹ description: Mean annual potential evapotranspiration estimated by the Hargreaves method over the 1981–2010 period. - range: [491.49, 1927.81] + range: + train: [491.49, 1793.35] + test: [726.73, 1892.73] - name: tav_C symbol: T unit: °C description: Mean annual air temperature over the 1981–2010 period. - range: [-0.48, 22.78] + range: + train: [-0.48, 22.78] + test: [2.37, 21.57] - name: area_sqkm symbol: A unit: km² description: Total drainage area of the catchment. - range: [4.74, 25546.04] + range: + train: [4.74, 14269.9] + test: [11.53, 25546] - name: basin_slope symbol: S unit: "%" description: Mean slope of the catchment terrain, expressed as a percentage. - range: [0.02, 66.62] + range: + train: [0.02, 66.62] + test: [0.68, 56.49] - name: elev_mean_m symbol: Z unit: m description: Mean elevation of the catchment above sea level. - range: [8.07, 3602.21] + range: + train: [8.07, 3602.21] + test: [69.37, 3238.03] - name: clay_pct symbol: c unit: "%" description: Soil clay fraction averaged over the catchment, expressed as a percentage of total soil composition. - range: [2.31, 53.08] + range: + train: [2.32, 53.08] + test: [10.18, 51.37] - name: bfi symbol: BFI unit: "" description: Base-flow index — dimensionless ratio of long-term base flow to total streamflow, indicating the groundwater contribution to catchment discharge. - range: [0.06, 0.86] + range: + train: [0.0784, 0.8544] + test: [0.0616, 0.8096] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -104,7 +124,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 1 # alpha n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.1110, r2: 0.0420} + measured: {rmse: 0.107988, r2: -0.212707} - id: wang_tang_2014 label: Wang & Tang 2014 — one-parameter Budyko Eq. (10) with epsilon = 0.55 (MOPEX) formula_file: formulas/wang_tang_2014.py @@ -112,7 +132,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 1 # epsilon n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.1099, r2: 0.0604} + measured: {rmse: 0.105706, r2: -0.161986} - id: yang_2008 label: Yang et al. 2008 — analytically derived Budyko Eq. (25) with n = 2.0 (Figure 1, PDF p. 4) formula_file: formulas/yang_2008.py @@ -120,7 +140,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 1 # n n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.1217, r2: -0.1518} + measured: {rmse: 0.122283, r2: -0.555023} # Candidate prior constants — the `priors` prompt slot. `_role` is audit-only # (stripped before the priors are shown). This task offers NO candidate: the diff --git a/catchment_mean_runoff_camels__q_mean/metadata.yaml b/catchment_mean_runoff_camels__q_mean/metadata.yaml index 33dca33db0e644d5e93c011baf3e812aa7b70a5f..24fe63514c2afce2c8436efc2fbddca965302b82 100644 --- a/catchment_mean_runoff_camels__q_mean/metadata.yaml +++ b/catchment_mean_runoff_camels__q_mean/metadata.yaml @@ -13,75 +13,103 @@ target: name: q_mean symbol: Q unit: mm/day - description: Long-term mean daily runoff per unit catchment area (observed streamflow / area). Bounded above by mean precipitation (water-balance closure) and below by zero. Spans 0.0046 (most arid test catchment) to 9.69 mm/day; the declared metric is rmse (the field-standard runoff error; a log metric is unsuitable because the demand-limit baseline legitimately predicts exactly zero in arid catchments). - range: [0.0, 9.69] + description: Long-term mean daily runoff per unit catchment area (observed streamflow / area). Bounded above by mean precipitation (water-balance closure) and below by zero. The most arid test catchments approach zero runoff; the declared metric is rmse (the field-standard runoff error; a log metric is unsuitable because the demand-limit baseline legitimately predicts exactly zero in arid catchments). + range: + train: [0.336318, 9.68844] + test: [0.00455316, 1.94922] inputs: - name: p_mean symbol: P unit: mm/day description: Long-term mean daily precipitation over the catchment. PRIMARY input — one of the two Budyko variables; all three reference baselines use it. - range: [0.64, 8.94] + range: + train: [1.88818, 8.93689] + test: [0.644565, 3.8965] - name: pet_mean symbol: E_p unit: mm/day description: Long-term mean daily potential evapotranspiration (Priestley-Taylor) over the catchment. PRIMARY input — the second Budyko variable; all three reference baselines use it. - range: [1.89, 4.75] + range: + train: [1.8991, 4.34899] + test: [1.95294, 4.74391] - name: aridity symbol: φ unit: "" description: Aridity index φ = PET/P. DISTRACTOR — exactly collinear with the ratio of the two primary inputs (aridity = pet_mean/p_mean), so it carries no independent information. The Budyko curve IS a function of φ, but a formula built from p_mean and pet_mean already has it. - range: [0.22, 5.21] + range: + train: [0.220284, 1.10049] + test: [1.1017, 5.20791] - name: p_seasonality symbol: s_P unit: "" description: Precipitation seasonality / phasing index (positive = precip in warm season, negative = cold season). Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [-1.44, 0.93] + range: + train: [-1.35835, 0.824779] + test: [-1.43546, 0.922019] - name: frac_snow symbol: f_s unit: "" description: Fraction of annual precipitation falling as snow. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.0, 0.91] + range: + train: [0, 0.777311] + test: [0, 0.906327] - name: area_gages2 symbol: A unit: km^2 description: Catchment drainage area (GAGES-II estimate). Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [4.03, 25791.0] + range: + train: [5.38, 14268.9] + test: [4.03, 25791] - name: elev_mean symbol: z unit: m description: Catchment-mean surface elevation above sea level. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [10.21, 3571.18] + range: + train: [10.21, 3370.38] + test: [25.46, 3571.18] - name: slope_mean symbol: S unit: m/km description: Catchment-mean topographic slope. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.82, 255.69] + range: + train: [0.82221, 255.688] + test: [1.80947, 176.367] - name: soil_porosity symbol: n unit: "" description: Catchment-mean soil porosity (volumetric void fraction). Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.37, 0.69] + range: + train: [0.373282, 0.680023] + test: [0.383145, 0.477398] - name: max_water_content symbol: S_max unit: m description: Catchment-mean maximum soil water storage capacity (equivalent water depth). Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.08, 1.06] + range: + train: [0.161366, 1.05198] + test: [0.0866022, 0.751752] - name: geol_permeability symbol: log10_k unit: log10(m^2) description: Base-ten log of catchment-mean subsurface permeability. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [-16.5, -10.9] + range: + train: [-16.5, -10.9] + test: [-16.2648, -11.8] - name: frac_forest symbol: f_for unit: "" description: Fraction of catchment area covered by forest. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.0, 1.0] + range: + train: [0.0044, 1] + test: [0, 1] - name: lai_max symbol: L_max unit: "" description: Catchment-mean annual maximum leaf-area index. Candidate secondary predictor; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [0.36, 5.59] + range: + train: [1.19995, 5.58212] + test: [0.367125, 5.51154] # NOTE: the target is NOT algebraically reconstructable from the # released inputs. Long-term runoff is Q = P − E_actual, but the diff --git a/cepheid_period_luminosity__M_W/metadata.yaml b/cepheid_period_luminosity__M_W/metadata.yaml index 118f2c0b3fe5254f81186dfd16dee9f7c74df346..295b4950b8ebc88294796c2400307eed68cdfa2f 100644 --- a/cepheid_period_luminosity__M_W/metadata.yaml +++ b/cepheid_period_luminosity__M_W/metadata.yaml @@ -13,19 +13,25 @@ target: symbol: "M_W" unit: mag description: Absolute Gaia Wesenheit magnitude — a reddening-free combination of broadband Gaia photometry referenced to the source distance via parallax. - range: [-8.47, -4.38] + range: + train: [-5.98979, -4.49653] + test: [-8.46608, -6.1097] inputs: - name: log_P symbol: "log P" unit: "" description: Base-10 logarithm of the fundamental-mode pulsation period, with the period measured in days. - range: [0.41, 1.66] + range: + train: [0.489958, 0.989183] + test: [1.01456, 1.65315] - name: feh symbol: "[Fe/H]" unit: dex description: Photospheric iron abundance relative to solar on a logarithmic scale. - range: [-0.18, 0.33] + range: + train: [-0.18, 0.22] + test: [0.02, 0.33] data_files: train: data/train.csv # log_P < 1.0 (short-to-medium period; P < 10 d) diff --git a/cloud_cover_parameterization__cloud_cover/metadata.yaml b/cloud_cover_parameterization__cloud_cover/metadata.yaml index a50c875e9fac3338bceb8aaa101062bacdeffcdf..9a19aa9ae47c5cc04294381d11ad442420b942a2 100644 --- a/cloud_cover_parameterization__cloud_cover/metadata.yaml +++ b/cloud_cover_parameterization__cloud_cover/metadata.yaml @@ -13,49 +13,67 @@ target: symbol: C unit: "" description: Sub-grid cloud area fraction in a coarse-grained atmospheric volume, dimensionless in [0, 1]. - range: [0.0, 1.0] + range: + train: [0, 1] + test: [0, 1] inputs: - name: q_c symbol: q_c unit: kg/kg description: Cloud liquid water mixing ratio — mass of cloud liquid water per unit mass of moist air. - range: [0.0, 0.00048] + range: + train: [0, 0.000473] + test: [0, 0.000393] - name: q_i symbol: q_i unit: kg/kg description: Cloud ice mixing ratio — mass of cloud ice per unit mass of moist air. - range: [0.0, 0.00014] + range: + train: [0, 0.000129] + test: [0, 0.000129] - name: RH symbol: RH unit: "" description: Relative humidity with respect to liquid water, computed from specific humidity, temperature, and pressure. - range: [0.0003, 1.02] + range: + train: [0.000389, 1.0156] + test: [0.000467, 0.999862] - name: T symbol: T unit: K description: Air temperature at the model level. - range: [191.0, 313.0] + range: + train: [191.311, 312.824] + test: [191.666, 311.6] - name: p symbol: p unit: Pa description: Atmospheric pressure at the model level. - range: [1525.0, 101611.0] + range: + train: [1525.9, 101598] + test: [1526.61, 101610] - name: q_v symbol: q_v unit: kg/kg description: Specific humidity — mass of water vapour per unit mass of moist air. - range: [0.000002, 0.0198] + range: + train: [2e-06, 0.019779] + test: [2e-06, 0.019173] - name: z_g symbol: z_g unit: m description: Geometric height of the model level above the surface. - range: [20.0, 28194.0] + range: + train: [20, 28193.8] + test: [20, 28193.8] - name: dz_RH symbol: dRH/dz unit: 1/m description: Vertical derivative of relative humidity along the geometric height coordinate, computed by cubic spline interpolation. - range: [-0.00283, 0.00065] + range: + train: [-0.002556, 0.000643] + test: [-0.002824, 0.000589] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] diff --git a/commuting_gravity_lodes__flow_Tij/metadata.yaml b/commuting_gravity_lodes__flow_Tij/metadata.yaml index 5df4805c9064594b9ceabc14bc9e01fe98b07a43..10527a0a2e0e191215b83480e461a0d9f062ce2b 100644 --- a/commuting_gravity_lodes__flow_Tij/metadata.yaml +++ b/commuting_gravity_lodes__flow_Tij/metadata.yaml @@ -14,8 +14,8 @@ target: county to the work county, after a +1 shift to avoid log(0) for single-worker pairs. range: - - 0.301 - - 5.508 # rounded up by 0.001 to ensure inclusion of the actual max 5.507104 + train: [0.30103, 5.5071] + test: [0.30103, 5.30913] inputs: - name: m_i symbol: "m\u1D62" @@ -23,24 +23,24 @@ inputs: description: "Total resident workers of the origin county \u2014 the sum of outbound\ \ commuting flows from county i across all destinations." range: - - 107 - - 4167638 + train: [107, 4167638] + test: [107, 4167638] - name: m_j symbol: "m\u2C7C" unit: workers description: "Total jobs located in the destination county \u2014 the sum of inbound\ \ commuting flows to county j from all origins." range: - - 107 - - 4167638 + train: [107, 4167638] + test: [107, 4167638] - name: d_ij_km symbol: "d\u1D62\u2C7C" unit: km description: Haversine great-circle distance between the representative centroids of the home and work counties. range: - - 21.79 - - 1223.2 + train: [21.7917, 1186.97] + test: [23.1785, 1223.19] - name: s_ij symbol: "s\u1D62\u2C7C" unit: workers @@ -48,8 +48,8 @@ inputs: \ summed over all counties whose centroids lie strictly inside the disk of radius\ \ d_ij centred on the home county, excluding both home and work counties." range: - - 0 - - 20447583 + train: [0, 20447583] + test: [0, 20433795] data_files: train: data/train.csv test: data/test.csv @@ -178,14 +178,3 @@ best_baseline: 0.536064 # lenormand_2016_gravity_pow — rmse (lower is bette # was the RMSE of predicting the TRAIN mean on the OOD test, NOT the section-C9-c # naive (test-mean) predictor. Under the correct naive, NO baseline beat naive on # the old OOD split -- which is exactly what flagged the degenerate split. See VERDICT.md. -auditor_notes: - mixed_bank_disclosure: - severity: ACCEPTABLE_E6_MIXED_BANK - split: representative (deterministic md5 hash of county-pair id, ~15% holdout) - summary: >- - Representative split replacing a degenerate d>=600 km OOD split. Mixed bank: - gravity_pow R2=+0.540 and simini R2=+0.143 beat naive (test-mean RMSE 0.790); - extrad R2=-0.532 and gravity_exp R2=-3.040 are weaker published Lenormand - models with frozen scaling-law coefficients. Section 9.6 satisfied (>=1 beats - naive). zipf_1946 removed (un-normalised, R2=-35 in-sample). - citation: "AUDIT_CHECKLIST E6 (mixed-bank disclosure) + split-priority rule (representative split when source papers validate on the whole dataset)" diff --git a/dna_melting_temperature_khandelwal__Tm/metadata.yaml b/dna_melting_temperature_khandelwal__Tm/metadata.yaml index 7560e0425241143c7d425c376f78f0cf3ad42284..f2f10f5314408fe62c367fd8b8cbfc60c457aa46 100644 --- a/dna_melting_temperature_khandelwal__Tm/metadata.yaml +++ b/dna_melting_temperature_khandelwal__Tm/metadata.yaml @@ -16,14 +16,18 @@ target: symbol: "T_m" unit: "°C" description: Experimentally measured DNA duplex melting temperature — the temperature at which 50% of double-stranded DNA has dissociated into single strands, determined by UV-absorbance hyperchromic effect. - range: [35.30, 88.60] + range: + train: [39.1, 88.6] + test: [35.3, 74.1] inputs: - name: E symbol: E unit: dimensionless description: DNA strength parameter per base — sum of overlapping dinucleotide step strength values divided by sequence length, encoding stacking and hydrogen-bonding contributions to duplex stability. - range: [5.409091, 9.760000] + range: + train: [5.40909, 9.76] + test: [6.06667, 9.6] - name: N symbol: "N" unit: bp @@ -33,12 +37,16 @@ inputs: symbol: "[Na+]" unit: "M" description: Sodium ion concentration of the solution in Molar units, controlling electrostatic screening of the DNA backbone. - range: [0.07, 1.02] + range: + train: [0.07, 1.02] + test: [0.07, 1.02] - name: dna_conc_M symbol: "C_DNA" unit: "M" description: Total nucleotide strand concentration in Molar units. - range: [0.000001, 0.000100] + range: + train: [1e-06, 0.0001] + test: [2e-06, 2e-06] data_files: train: data/train.csv # Tables S1+S2: 348 oligomers, N=16-30 bp @@ -124,7 +132,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: khandelwal_2010 # sole baseline; the metric anchor # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/drosophila_isolation_by_distance_dest__M_stat/metadata.yaml b/drosophila_isolation_by_distance_dest__M_stat/metadata.yaml index b3fae349873a686065166cc376abf6fa59a3b6a1..aab62a8d00d30fb8ec41014e46ff08a88f0cc7c7 100644 --- a/drosophila_isolation_by_distance_dest__M_stat/metadata.yaml +++ b/drosophila_isolation_by_distance_dest__M_stat/metadata.yaml @@ -14,19 +14,25 @@ target: symbol: M unit: "" description: Rousset's linearised differentiation statistic, M_stat = F_ST / (1 - F_ST), per pair of populations. - range: [0.0, 0.2934] + range: + train: [0.000335, 0.229405] + test: [1e-06, 0.293438] inputs: - name: log_distance_km symbol: ln(d) unit: ln(km) description: Natural logarithm of the great-circle distance between the two populations of the pair (clipped to d >= 1 km before taking the log). - range: [0.0, 9.1509] + range: + train: [6.74304, 7.85398] + test: [0, 9.15094] - name: distance_km symbol: d unit: km description: Great-circle (Haversine) distance between the two populations. - range: [1.0, 9423.28] + range: + train: [848.132, 2575.97] + test: [1, 9423.28] # Dataset — Type I, two-file flat layout. Source: # data_raw/pairwise_F_ST.csv (1378 unordered pairs of 53 populations, diff --git a/eclipsing_binary_mass_luminosity_debcat__log_L_Lsun/metadata.yaml b/eclipsing_binary_mass_luminosity_debcat__log_L_Lsun/metadata.yaml index 28d16e0b3de227b0a5e1d327e6b0ddb9aeac3379..f54095f984d81a456d78a253a4e33ab23375f233 100644 --- a/eclipsing_binary_mass_luminosity_debcat__log_L_Lsun/metadata.yaml +++ b/eclipsing_binary_mass_luminosity_debcat__log_L_Lsun/metadata.yaml @@ -14,19 +14,25 @@ target: symbol: log₁₀(L/L☉) unit: dex description: Base-10 logarithm of bolometric stellar luminosity expressed in solar luminosities. - range: [-2.32, 5.26] + range: + train: [-2.3, 5.187] + test: [-2.313, 5.253] inputs: - name: log_M_Msun symbol: log₁₀(M/M☉) unit: dex - description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar mass expressed in solar masses. Train [-0.68, 1.44] (pre-2018 stars, M = 0.21-27.3 M_sun); test [-0.98, 1.37] (post-2018 stars, M = 0.11-23.5 M_sun); both splits cover the full mass range. - range: [-0.98, 1.44] + description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar mass expressed in solar masses. Train = pre-2018 stars (M = 0.21-27.3 M_sun); test = post-2018 stars (M = 0.11-23.5 M_sun); both splits cover the full mass range. + range: + train: [-0.678195, 1.43569] + test: [-0.976336, 1.37088] - name: metallicity symbol: "[M/H]" unit: dex description: Logarithmic stellar metallicity relative to the Sun. Missing (NaN) for stars without a published spectroscopic determination (~50% of rows). Distractor input — no reference baseline uses it. - range: [-1.86, 0.55] + range: + train: [-1.86, 0.55] + test: [-1.47, 0.51] # NOTE: log_R_Rsun and T_eff_K are NOT released as inputs. DEBCat's # log_L is derived from R and T_eff via the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation diff --git a/exfor_neutron_capture_resonance_gold__sigma_E/metadata.yaml b/exfor_neutron_capture_resonance_gold__sigma_E/metadata.yaml index 93f38874c9e5815f15e21e8a6e8a0125e5d9997d..9ce9b300bd0da0362af3de3251ffe47190001828 100644 --- a/exfor_neutron_capture_resonance_gold__sigma_E/metadata.yaml +++ b/exfor_neutron_capture_resonance_gold__sigma_E/metadata.yaml @@ -13,15 +13,19 @@ target: name: log10_sigma_b symbol: log10(sigma) unit: log10(barn) - description: Base-10 logarithm of the Au-197(n,gamma) inclusive capture cross section in barns. The log transform is needed because sigma spans >5 decades from the thermal background (~10-100 b) to the 4.9 eV resonance peak (~33,000 b). Range -1.18 to 4.45 in the E < 50 eV window. - range: [-1.184, 4.446] + description: Base-10 logarithm of the Au-197(n,gamma) inclusive capture cross section in barns. The log transform is needed because sigma spans >5 decades from the thermal background (~10-100 b) to the 4.9 eV resonance peak (~33,000 b), measured in the E < 50 eV window. + range: + train: [-0.866238, 4.44623] + test: [-1.18417, 4.3353] inputs: - name: E_eV symbol: E unit: eV - description: Incident neutron kinetic energy in electronvolts. The single SR feature — both the 1/v law and the Breit-Wigner resonance are univariate functions of E. Spans 0.04 meV (sub-thermal) to ~50 eV in this window. - range: [3.99e-05, 49.975] + description: Incident neutron kinetic energy in electronvolts. The single SR feature — both the 1/v law and the Breit-Wigner resonance are univariate functions of E. Spans the sub-thermal to ~50 eV window. + range: + train: [3.99e-05, 49.975] + test: [6.88e-05, 49.308] # NOTE: the target is NOT circular. sigma is the experimentally MEASURED # cross section (EXFOR), E is the independently-set incident neutron diff --git a/exoplanet_mass_radius__R/metadata.yaml b/exoplanet_mass_radius__R/metadata.yaml index 142726a542025cc2295a3c0ee7c8accac37afb1e..5fb94fb7a32177f018392c2fdf123eca23658527 100644 --- a/exoplanet_mass_radius__R/metadata.yaml +++ b/exoplanet_mass_radius__R/metadata.yaml @@ -17,7 +17,9 @@ target: unit: R_earth description: Radius of the object in Earth radii, measured from transit photometry (planets) or eclipsing/light-curve analysis (brown dwarfs). - range: [0.30, 87.3] + range: + train: [0.3098, 87.2059] + test: [0.338, 30.2643] inputs: - name: M @@ -25,7 +27,9 @@ inputs: unit: M_earth description: Mass of the object in Earth masses; directly measured from radial velocity, transit timing variations, or binary orbital dynamics. - range: [0.02, 24982.0] + range: + train: [0.0553, 24981.3] + test: [0.02, 23805.3] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: diff --git a/galaxy_mass_metallicity_sdss__oh/metadata.yaml b/galaxy_mass_metallicity_sdss__oh/metadata.yaml index 1a07136d9e11af5f43f8846f88e9bbc05a169d81..241ee01da695b793634ffd1f0b21a81c99fb2bf8 100644 --- a/galaxy_mass_metallicity_sdss__oh/metadata.yaml +++ b/galaxy_mass_metallicity_sdss__oh/metadata.yaml @@ -17,19 +17,25 @@ target: symbol: 12 + log(O/H) unit: dex description: Gas-phase oxygen abundance of the galaxy's interstellar medium, expressed as 12 plus the base-10 logarithm of the number-density ratio of oxygen to hydrogen atoms. - range: [7.67, 9.4666] + range: + train: [7.67, 9.4666] + test: [7.67, 9.432] inputs: - name: log_Mstar symbol: log₁₀ M★ unit: log(M_sun) description: Base-10 logarithm of the galaxy's total stellar mass in solar masses. - range: [8.50, 11.50] + range: + train: [8.5001, 11.4996] + test: [8.5005, 11.4985] - name: log_SFR symbol: log₁₀ SFR unit: log(M_sun/yr) description: Base-10 logarithm of the galaxy's total star-formation rate in solar masses per year. - range: [-4.01, 3.88] + range: + train: [-4.003, 3.8753] + test: [-3.3512, 3.8751] data_files: train: data/train.csv # deterministic mass-stratified representative split (~80%) @@ -190,7 +196,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: mannucci_2010_mzr # lowest RMSE / highest R² on the representative split # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/galaxy_stellar_mass_sdss__log_M_star/metadata.yaml b/galaxy_stellar_mass_sdss__log_M_star/metadata.yaml index 4f67192ac7be9201598f0f4e224317bf9dda6fd9..e656bb44952c6d0090e4bbec6b9fe6ce0bd78d48 100644 --- a/galaxy_stellar_mass_sdss__log_M_star/metadata.yaml +++ b/galaxy_stellar_mass_sdss__log_M_star/metadata.yaml @@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ target: Log base-10 of total galaxy stellar mass in solar masses, estimated by the MPA-JHU pipeline via Bayesian spectral fitting of the 4000 Angstrom break strength and the Hδ_A absorption index under the Kroupa initial mass function. - range: [7.02, 12.48] # train [7.029926, 12.46617]; test [8.118873, 12.46157]; round outward + range: + train: [7.02993, 12.4662] + test: [8.11887, 12.4616] inputs: - name: u @@ -27,38 +29,50 @@ inputs: unit: mag description: >- Galactic-extinction-corrected SDSS u-band apparent model magnitude on the AB system. - range: [15.36, 22.96] # full: [15.36988, 22.94913]; round outward + range: + train: [15.5337, 22.8882] + test: [15.3699, 22.9491] - name: g symbol: "g" unit: mag description: >- Galactic-extinction-corrected SDSS g-band apparent model magnitude on the AB system. - range: [14.86, 22.52] # full: [14.86303, 22.51956] + range: + train: [14.863, 22.5196] + test: [15.2487, 22.3044] - name: r symbol: "r" unit: mag description: >- Galactic-extinction-corrected SDSS r-band apparent model magnitude on the AB system. - range: [14.41, 21.92] # full: [14.41012, 21.91952] + range: + train: [14.4101, 21.5607] + test: [15.1033, 21.9195] - name: i symbol: "i" unit: mag description: >- Galactic-extinction-corrected SDSS i-band apparent model magnitude on the AB system. - range: [14.08, 21.97] # full: [14.08313, 21.96579] + range: + train: [14.0831, 21.9029] + test: [14.6102, 21.9658] - name: z_mag symbol: "z" unit: mag description: >- Galactic-extinction-corrected SDSS z-band apparent model magnitude on the AB system. Column named z_mag to avoid ambiguity with the redshift symbol z. - range: [13.76, 21.96] # full: [13.76824, 21.95789] + range: + train: [13.7682, 21.9579] + test: [14.3054, 21.8377] - name: redshift symbol: "z" unit: "" description: >- Spectroscopic redshift of the galaxy measured by the SDSS spectrograph. - range: [0.02, 0.31] # full: [0.020002, 0.299998]; round outward + range: + train: [0.020002, 0.157737] + test: [0.157737, 0.299998] - name: DM symbol: "μ" unit: mag @@ -66,7 +80,9 @@ inputs: Distance modulus computed from spectroscopic redshift under a flat LCDM cosmology (H0=70 km/s/Mpc, Omega_m=0.3, Omega_Lambda=0.7), enabling conversion from apparent to absolute magnitudes. - range: [34.69, 40.96] # full: [34.6972, 40.9555]; round outward + range: + train: [34.6972, 39.3857] + test: [39.3857, 40.9555] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout # FM G1-borderline upgrade (2026-05-26, wave-3 subagent K finding + wave-4 subagent O fix): diff --git a/geomagnetic_storm_dst__dDst_dt/metadata.yaml b/geomagnetic_storm_dst__dDst_dt/metadata.yaml index 45be04146db3ca8ddd8528deead81d3340679069..7a553f28cf7a79ff84bde643770d576227c56ed4 100644 --- a/geomagnetic_storm_dst__dDst_dt/metadata.yaml +++ b/geomagnetic_storm_dst__dDst_dt/metadata.yaml @@ -17,7 +17,9 @@ target: finite difference of the hourly Dst series: (Dst[i+1] - Dst[i-1]) / 2. Negative during storm main phase (ring-current intensification); positive during recovery. - range: [-133.0, 62.5] + range: + train: [-133, 62.5] + test: [-35, 13] inputs: - name: Dst @@ -27,26 +29,34 @@ inputs: Disturbance storm-time index measuring the globally averaged horizontal magnetic perturbation at low latitudes; negative values indicate ring-current intensification. - range: [-422.0, 77.0] + range: + train: [-422, 77] + test: [-82, 40] - name: Ey symbol: "E_y" unit: mV/m description: >- Dawn-to-dusk component of the solar wind convective electric field at L1, the primary driver of ring-current injection. - range: [-35.94, 47.11] + range: + train: [-35.94, 47.11] + test: [-7.12, 8.13] - name: P_dyn symbol: "P_dyn" unit: nPa description: >- Solar wind dynamic pressure at L1, contributing to the magnetopause current correction of the Dst index. - range: [0.03, 71.04] + range: + train: [0.03, 71.04] + test: [0.16, 10.68] - name: V_sw symbol: "V_sw" unit: km/s description: Solar wind bulk flow speed at L1. - range: [228.0, 1189.0] + range: + train: [228, 1189] + test: [273, 614] - name: Bz_GSM symbol: "B_z" unit: nT @@ -54,22 +64,30 @@ inputs: North-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinates; negative (southward) values drive dayside reconnection. - range: [-57.8, 41.6] + range: + train: [-57.8, 41.6] + test: [-18.3, 15.9] - name: n_sw symbol: "n_sw" unit: cm^-3 description: Solar wind proton number density at L1. - range: [0.1, 137.2] + range: + train: [0.1, 137.2] + test: [0.6, 44.7] - name: B_mag symbol: "|B|" unit: nT description: Magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field at L1. - range: [0.4, 62.0] + range: + train: [0.4, 62] + test: [0.7, 20.6] - name: T_sw symbol: "T_sw" unit: K description: Solar wind proton temperature at L1. - range: [3299.0, 897673.0] + range: + train: [3299, 897673] + test: [4002, 531324] data_files: train: data/train.csv # years 1995-2021 Mar; temporal OOD split diff --git a/ghg_emission_drivers__CDE/metadata.yaml b/ghg_emission_drivers__CDE/metadata.yaml index b719db8bcb67e6656ffde997a4a4992f9523dfd9..f64204cba0b056ef03f3fcf144b8e28778713663 100644 --- a/ghg_emission_drivers__CDE/metadata.yaml +++ b/ghg_emission_drivers__CDE/metadata.yaml @@ -13,39 +13,53 @@ target: symbol: "I_CO2" unit: kg CO2 description: National annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, excluding land-use change and forestry - range: [14000000.0, 10600000000000.0] + range: + train: [1.4319e+07, 1.05304e+13] + test: [4.09376e+08, 6.14233e+12] inputs: - name: GDP symbol: "A" unit: USD per capita (constant 2015 USD) description: Gross domestic product per capita in constant 2015 US dollars - range: [166.71, 112418.0] + range: + train: [166.71, 19979.6] + test: [20014.5, 112418] - name: TP symbol: "P" unit: persons description: Total national population - range: [52597.0, 1379860000.0] + range: + train: [63066, 1379860000] + test: [52597, 321815121] - name: AP symbol: "AP" unit: "%" description: Share of population aged 15 to 64 years (working-age or active population) - range: [45.77, 85.25] + range: + train: [45.7769, 75.4748] + test: [55.0479, 85.2495] - name: DP symbol: "DP" unit: persons per km2 description: Population density as number of inhabitants per square kilometre of land area - range: [1.35, 6944.1] + range: + train: [1.35625, 1224.42] + test: [2.22136, 6944.1] - name: UR symbol: "UR" unit: "%" description: Percentage of the total population living in urban areas - range: [5.27, 100.0] + range: + train: [5.27494, 97.9803] + test: [27.0586, 100] - name: AT symbol: "AT" unit: "degrees C" description: Annual mean surface air temperature averaged over the national territory - range: [-4.97, 29.78] + range: + train: [-4.90051, 29.7776] + test: [-4.96912, 28.9267] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] diff --git a/ghg_emission_drivers__EC/metadata.yaml b/ghg_emission_drivers__EC/metadata.yaml index 506cad0b554961e5e78dd37acd7bd5c4e1c9fa4a..8e86635d37cc8ba1b5bddf7d5d55dd730b6af0fb 100644 --- a/ghg_emission_drivers__EC/metadata.yaml +++ b/ghg_emission_drivers__EC/metadata.yaml @@ -13,39 +13,53 @@ target: symbol: "I_E" unit: TJ description: Annual national primary energy consumption from all sources. - range: [271.74, 137592706.0] + range: + train: [271.743, 1.37593e+08] + test: [6275.1, 1.04414e+08] inputs: - name: GDP symbol: "A" unit: USD per capita (constant 2015 USD (World Bank WDI base year)) description: Per-capita gross domestic product, constant 2015 USD (World Bank WDI base year). - range: [166.71, 112417.88] + range: + train: [166.71, 13145.8] + test: [13165.8, 112418] - name: TP symbol: "P" unit: persons description: Total resident population. - range: [48232.0, 1379860000.0] + range: + train: [52878, 1379860000] + test: [48232, 321815121] - name: AP symbol: "f_{active}" unit: "%" description: Share of population aged 15 to 64 (working-age fraction). - range: [45.77, 85.25] + range: + train: [45.7769, 72.8645] + test: [54.1385, 85.2495] - name: DP symbol: "\\rho" unit: persons per km2 description: Population density in persons per square kilometre of land area. - range: [0.13, 6944.10] + range: + train: [1.35625, 1224.42] + test: [0.136436, 6944.1] - name: UR symbol: "f_{urban}" unit: "%" description: Share of population living in urban areas. - range: [5.27, 100.00] + range: + train: [5.27494, 92.9604] + test: [25, 100] - name: AT symbol: "T" unit: "degrees C" description: Mean annual surface air temperature at the country level. - range: [-20.45, 29.78] + range: + train: [-4.90051, 29.7776] + test: [-20.4459, 28.9267] priors: [] @@ -70,8 +84,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 1 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 6823023.853269 - r2: 0.883284 + smape: 0.472866 + r2: 0.886862 - id: vazquez_2022_bms label: BMS symbolic regression expression for log(EC), Vazquez 2022 Table 3 formula_file: formulas/vazquez_2022_bms.py @@ -80,8 +94,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 1 # AT_K_OFFSET = 273.15 (Celsius → Kelvin for AT) n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 3699955.079356 - r2: 0.965678 + smape: 0.485155 + r2: 0.959087 # 2026-05-25 structural fix (relay-A gen 9 wave 81): predict() and docstring # repaired after opus PDF audit found that the outer-exponent denominator # was a3 (wrong; should be AT in Kelvin) and the inner-base leading diff --git a/ghg_emission_drivers__ME/metadata.yaml b/ghg_emission_drivers__ME/metadata.yaml index 800d916116da448e557be52dcb6e358473a2d5b1..9a0c8d1876050fb2a574445480922d0308c10842 100644 --- a/ghg_emission_drivers__ME/metadata.yaml +++ b/ghg_emission_drivers__ME/metadata.yaml @@ -13,39 +13,53 @@ target: symbol: "I_CH4" unit: kg CH4 description: National annual CH4 emissions from all sectors excluding land-use change and forestry - range: [478974.0, 56670782000.0] + range: + train: [478974, 5.66708e+10] + test: [500007, 3.14636e+10] inputs: - name: GDP symbol: "A" unit: USD per capita (constant 2015 USD (World Bank WDI base year)) description: Gross domestic product per capita in constant 2015 US dollars - range: [166.71, 112418.0] + range: + train: [166.71, 19979.6] + test: [20014.5, 112418] - name: TP symbol: "P" unit: persons description: Total national population - range: [52597.0, 1379860000.0] + range: + train: [63066, 1379860000] + test: [52597, 321815121] - name: AP symbol: "AP" unit: "%" description: Share of population aged 15 to 64 years (working-age or active population) - range: [45.77, 85.25] + range: + train: [45.7769, 75.4748] + test: [55.0479, 85.2495] - name: DP symbol: "DP" unit: persons per km2 description: Population density as number of inhabitants per square kilometre of land area - range: [1.35, 6944.1] + range: + train: [1.35625, 1224.42] + test: [2.22136, 6944.1] - name: UR symbol: "UR" unit: "%" description: Percentage of the total population living in urban areas - range: [5.27, 100.0] + range: + train: [5.27494, 97.9803] + test: [27.0586, 100] - name: AT symbol: "AT" unit: "degrees C" description: Annual mean surface air temperature averaged over the national territory - range: [-4.97, 29.78] + range: + train: [-4.90051, 29.7776] + test: [-4.96912, 28.9267] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] @@ -97,7 +111,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: smape -reference_baseline_id: vazquez_2022_stirpat # strongest baseline (lowest SMAPE / highest R²); the metric anchor # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/ghg_emission_drivers__NOE/metadata.yaml b/ghg_emission_drivers__NOE/metadata.yaml index a4db24b0940856aebded80b4c37f4ed06e914210..8c7ff361746de9e273c8594a9558ff53ecfed731 100644 --- a/ghg_emission_drivers__NOE/metadata.yaml +++ b/ghg_emission_drivers__NOE/metadata.yaml @@ -13,39 +13,53 @@ target: symbol: "I_N2O" unit: kg N2O description: National annual N2O emissions from all sectors excluding land-use change and forestry, measured in kilograms of N2O per country per year - range: [11392.0, 2173932900.0] + range: + train: [11392.1, 2.17393e+09] + test: [45141.4, 1.6905e+09] inputs: - name: GDP symbol: "A" unit: USD per capita (constant 2015 USD (World Bank WDI base year)) description: Gross domestic product per capita in constant 2015 US dollars - range: [166.71, 112418.0] + range: + train: [166.71, 19979.6] + test: [20014.5, 112418] - name: TP symbol: "P" unit: persons description: Total national population - range: [52597.0, 1379860000.0] + range: + train: [63066, 1379860000] + test: [52597, 321815121] - name: AP symbol: "AP" unit: "%" description: Share of population aged 15 to 64 years (working-age or active population) - range: [45.77, 85.25] + range: + train: [45.7769, 75.4748] + test: [55.0479, 85.2495] - name: DP symbol: "DP" unit: persons per km2 description: Population density as number of inhabitants per square kilometre of land area - range: [1.35, 6944.1] + range: + train: [1.35625, 1224.42] + test: [2.22136, 6944.1] - name: UR symbol: "UR" unit: "%" description: Percentage of the total population living in urban areas - range: [5.27, 100.0] + range: + train: [5.27494, 97.9803] + test: [27.0586, 100] - name: AT symbol: "AT" unit: "degrees C" description: Annual mean surface air temperature averaged over the national territory - range: [-4.97, 29.78] + range: + train: [-4.90051, 29.7776] + test: [-4.96912, 28.9267] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] @@ -85,35 +99,6 @@ references: measured: smape: 0.587733 r2: 0.793058 -auditor_notes: - neg_r2_disclosure: - severity: ACCEPTABLE_PER_E6_MIXED_BANK - baselines_affected: - - id: vazquez_2022_bms - pooled_r2: -0.006502 - pooled_smape: 1.456827 - best_baseline_id: vazquez_2022_stirpat - best_baseline_smape: 0.587733 - best_baseline_r2: 0.793058 - summary: >- - One baseline (vazquez_2022_bms) yields a near-naive negative pooled R²=-0.007 on the - high-GDP OOD test split. It is a verified-published (Vazquez 2022 Table 3, NOE column) - but weak Bayesian-symbolic-regression expression. The bank satisfies §9.6 via - vazquez_2022_stirpat (R²=0.793, sMAPE=0.588). Metric is sMAPE (NOE spans ~5 orders of - magnitude). §9.14 (feature-OOD legitimately negative) applies. - citation: "AUDIT_CHECKLIST.md §E6 (mixed-bank partial-negative-R²) + data_spec §9.14" - york_2003_removed: - date: 2026-05-29 - by: "逐条审核 / 逐条11 (claude-opus, effort=max)" - reason: >- - york_2003 dropped to .dropped_baselines/. It was a CROSS-TARGET GRAFT — York 2003's - 1996 CO2 Model-3 coefficients (Table 1) applied to the N2O target (FM C9) — plus a C11 - centered-intercept-on-raw-inputs error. Its in-distribution adequacy (train R²=0.41) was - an accident of the two errors partially cancelling; with the mathematically-correct - uncentered intercept (+0.899) it collapses to sMAPE=2.0 / R²≈-1e9. Its docstring also - made a factually-incorrect C11 claim ("both produce sMAPE≈2.0"). In the score it floored - at 0.0 (no ladder value). Bank is now STIRPAT (anchor) + BMS, both verified-published - from Vazquez 2022 on the actual N2O target. caps: max_law_constants: 7 diff --git a/gravity_wgs84_somigliana__g0/metadata.yaml b/gravity_wgs84_somigliana__g0/metadata.yaml index cf8db6a3d277cc4dae4506edd0165011c1c7b8c6..59dc8ec65dbd4ecc40faab5c338c8b4c3b0b4aa2 100644 --- a/gravity_wgs84_somigliana__g0/metadata.yaml +++ b/gravity_wgs84_somigliana__g0/metadata.yaml @@ -15,14 +15,18 @@ target: symbol: "γ" unit: m/s^2 description: Normal gravity at the WGS84 reference ellipsoid surface — observed gravity reduced to sea level via free-air correction. - range: [9.785, 9.840] + range: + train: [9.78542, 9.83323] + test: [9.81836, 9.83737] inputs: - name: latitude symbol: "φ" unit: degrees description: Geodetic latitude of the gravity station, positive north. - range: [20.0, 80.0] + range: + train: [20.0083, 59.9973] + test: [60, 79.9917] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: diff --git a/ground_motion_ita18__log10_pga/metadata.yaml b/ground_motion_ita18__log10_pga/metadata.yaml index 4f05346ad8102b39d9a3074b9e81ca9191c24367..46b108e0aa1e6a5feabfc7ad32b317da9eb18bee 100644 --- a/ground_motion_ita18__log10_pga/metadata.yaml +++ b/ground_motion_ita18__log10_pga/metadata.yaml @@ -15,14 +15,18 @@ target: description: >- Log base 10 of the RotD50 peak ground acceleration of the horizontal components, in cm/s^2. RotD50 is the 50th percentile over all horizontal azimuths. - range: [-2.03, 3.12] + range: + train: [-2.02326, 2.75797] + test: [-0.443219, 3.10983] inputs: - name: Mw symbol: "M_w" unit: "" description: Moment magnitude of the earthquake. - range: [4.0, 6.9] + range: + train: [4, 5.7] + test: [5.8, 6.9] - name: R_km symbol: R unit: km @@ -30,12 +34,16 @@ inputs: Joyner-Boore distance (horizontal distance to the surface projection of the fault rupture) in km; epicentral distance used as fallback when fault geometry is unavailable. - range: [0.0, 199.61] + range: + train: [0, 199.6] + test: [0, 199.61] - name: depth_km symbol: h unit: km description: Hypocentral depth of the earthquake in km. - range: [0.21, 29.0] + range: + train: [0.218, 29] + test: [5, 22] - name: ec8_A symbol: "C_A" unit: "" diff --git a/gutenberg_richter_b_value_usgs__gr_freq_mag/metadata.yaml b/gutenberg_richter_b_value_usgs__gr_freq_mag/metadata.yaml index ae741d80d83facd76685e47c42d48bc85b550c83..8c5db974d5443eaa82184e4f0b3d149d0ddc5301 100644 --- a/gutenberg_richter_b_value_usgs__gr_freq_mag/metadata.yaml +++ b/gutenberg_richter_b_value_usgs__gr_freq_mag/metadata.yaml @@ -15,14 +15,18 @@ target: symbol: "log₁₀N" unit: "" description: Log base-10 of the cumulative annual earthquake rate for events with moment magnitude at or above the threshold. - range: [-1.35, 2.43] + range: + train: [0.60392, 2.42092] + test: [-1.3479, 0.518384] inputs: - name: M_threshold symbol: "M" unit: "" description: Moment-magnitude threshold — minimum Mw for which log10_N is the cumulative annual event rate. - range: [5.6, 9.1] + range: + train: [5.6, 7.4] + test: [7.5, 9.1] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: diff --git a/hacks_law_river_length_hydrosheds__main_length_km/metadata.yaml b/hacks_law_river_length_hydrosheds__main_length_km/metadata.yaml index 56f64bdab4e0fd0f2cbd270947f980c181ca6c8a..605f207560fdced17d91bf7e19329d3720785540 100644 --- a/hacks_law_river_length_hydrosheds__main_length_km/metadata.yaml +++ b/hacks_law_river_length_hydrosheds__main_length_km/metadata.yaml @@ -1,14 +1,16 @@ task_id: hacks_law_river_length_hydrosheds__main_length_km domain: earth_science / hydrology license: HydroSHEDS-v1-Derivative -license_notes: "Distributed under HydroSHEDS V1 custom license (TechDoc v1.4 Appendix - A). §7.1 grants free non-commercial and commercial use; §2.1.2 permits distribution - of Licensed Materials incorporated into Derivative Works. The benchmark CSV is a - materially transformed Derivative Work (filtered: NEXT_DOWN==0, UPLAND_SKM>=100, - DIST_UP_KM>=5; column-renamed; aggregated from 9 shapefiles; embedded in a benchmark - harness with formulas, metadata, and evaluation scripts). License determination - via §2.1.2 Derivative Work + §7.1 general grant + Feist 1991 numeric-facts doctrine. - DEC filed 2026-05-25; GM-approved 2026-05-26. See audit/proposed_GM/hacks_law_license_decision_2026-05-25.md." +# license_notes: Distributed under HydroSHEDS V1 custom license (TechDoc v1.4 +# Appendix A). §7.1 grants free non-commercial and commercial use; §2.1.2 +# permits distribution of Licensed Materials incorporated into Derivative Works. +# The benchmark CSV is a materially transformed Derivative Work (filtered: +# NEXT_DOWN==0, UPLAND_SKM>=100, DIST_UP_KM>=5; column-renamed; aggregated from +# 9 shapefiles; embedded in a benchmark harness with formulas, metadata, and +# evaluation scripts). License determination via §2.1.2 Derivative Work + §7.1 +# general grant + Feist 1991 numeric-facts doctrine. DEC filed 2026-05-25; +# GM-approved 2026-05-26. See +# audit/proposed_GM/hacks_law_license_decision_2026-05-25.md. # Type I — each row is one independent terminal river outlet; no within-basin # repeated measures, no nested cluster structure. Both reference formulas are @@ -25,8 +27,8 @@ target: unit: km description: Main-stem river length, measured along the longest channel from the drainage divide to the basin outlet. range: - - 11.6 - - 6846.5 + train: [11.6, 471.9] + test: [41.4, 6846.5] inputs: - name: upland_area_skm @@ -35,40 +37,40 @@ inputs: dtype: float description: Total upstream drainage area at the outlet (sum of all contributing catchment areas above this point). range: - - 100.0 - - 5912761.0 + train: [100, 1087.7] + test: [1088.3, 5.91276e+06] - name: catch_area_skm symbol: A_c unit: km^2 dtype: float description: Local catchment area of the outlet segment alone (the terminal reach's own contributing area, excluding upstream tributaries). range: - - 0.03 - - 309.27 + train: [0.06, 251.93] + test: [0.03, 309.27] - name: segment_length_km symbol: L_s unit: km dtype: float description: Length of the terminal outlet segment alone (the final reach), which is typically a small fraction of the cumulative main-stem length. range: - - 0.1 - - 340.08 + train: [0.1, 340.08] + test: [0.1, 89.01] - name: endorheic symbol: e unit: "" dtype: float description: Indicator (0 or 1) for whether the basin terminates at an inland sink (1) or reaches the ocean (0). range: - - 0.0 - - 1.0 + train: [0, 1] + test: [0, 1] - name: strahler_order symbol: omega unit: "" dtype: float description: Strahler stream order of the outlet segment, an integer measure of branching depth in the channel network (1 = unbranched headwater; higher values denote progressively higher-order trunk channels). range: - - 1.0 - - 10.0 + train: [1, 5] + test: [2, 10] # Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -109,8 +111,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 237.8967 - r2: 0.5048 + log_mae: 0.098846 + r2: 0.504788 - id: dodds_rothman_2000 label: Dodds & Rothman 2000 — maximal-basin Hack's law L = 3.0 A^0.5 (Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 28, Eq. 36 / Fig. 8 caption, p. 23), fit to 37 of the world's largest basins (c_tilde=3.0, h_tilde=0.5). formula_file: formulas/dodds_rothman_2000.py @@ -119,8 +121,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 93.1996 - r2: 0.9240 + log_mae: 0.105328 + r2: 0.923995 caps: max_law_constants: 2 diff --git a/hea_hardness_lattice_distortion_couzinie__HV/metadata.yaml b/hea_hardness_lattice_distortion_couzinie__HV/metadata.yaml index a891c05ea720878ad6cca8fa2f3753e971ad55f6..f52941ec0d74f93cd118735e9f30dde31f1b818f 100644 --- a/hea_hardness_lattice_distortion_couzinie__HV/metadata.yaml +++ b/hea_hardness_lattice_distortion_couzinie__HV/metadata.yaml @@ -17,7 +17,9 @@ target: high-entropy alloy, compiled from peer-reviewed experimental measurements in a curated mechanical-property database. Values are means over repeated measurements of nominally identical compositions. - range: [166.0, 857.0] + range: + train: [166, 850] + test: [365, 857] inputs: - name: delta @@ -27,7 +29,9 @@ inputs: Yang-Zhang atomic-size mismatch parameter, defined as 100 × sqrt(Σ c_i (1 − r_i/r̄)²) with Goldschmidt CN-12 radii. Quantifies the degree of lattice distortion in the solid solution. - range: [2.31, 10.78] + range: + train: [2.48584, 10.7786] + test: [2.31046, 10.6363] - name: VEC symbol: "VEC" unit: "" @@ -35,7 +39,9 @@ inputs: Valence electron concentration (s + p + d electrons per atom), calculated as Σ c_i VEC_i. Controls the preferred crystal structure (FCC vs BCC) and electronic bonding strength. - range: [4.20, 6.50] + range: + train: [4.2, 6.5] + test: [4.27273, 6.5] - name: dHmix symbol: "ΔH_mix" unit: "kJ/mol" @@ -43,7 +49,9 @@ inputs: Miedema regular-solution enthalpy of mixing, Σ_{i- - Rebuilt Type II -> Type I (2026-06-02 audit). The paper fits all 13 polarisation - curves simultaneously with one shared 5-parameter set (PDF p. 27, Sec. 4.1; Table 4; - Fig. 8 "common set of parameters"), so the intrinsic kinetic constants are - cross-condition invariants and belong in LAW_CONSTANTS, not as per-cluster LOCAL. - The prior Type II buried them as LOCAL (Direction-A) and additionally placed the - CODATA F/R in LAW (Direction-B); both fixed. A global least-squares fit on train - recovers shape constants (beta=0.35, Ea=17.8 kJ/mol, K_std=3.30) matching the - paper's Table 4 (1/3, 18 kJ/mol, 3.09); the released floating-electrode currents - sit ~10^3x above the paper's example parameter scale (the paper's k2_eq~5.1e-6 does - not reproduce this data), so k2_eq_ref/i0_ref are fit to the released data. HV - (best) test R2=0.992 (rmse 14.4); BV the deliberately-inadequate limiting case - (single i0, no explicit P_H2 dependence) test R2=0.829 (rmse 66.9) — both beat the - naive constant predictor (test rmse 161.8). G_std~0.29 puts the data in the small-G - regime where k2_eq_ref and G_std are partially degenerate (only their product sets - the scale); HV's advantage over BV comes from the K_std denominator term (K_std=3.30 - != 1), exactly the paper's point that the Butler-Volmer reduction does not hold on Pt. diff --git a/island_species_richness_terceira__S_terceira/metadata.yaml b/island_species_richness_terceira__S_terceira/metadata.yaml index e2939cec9e70035e45ca484360eb7c02c498f1ff..87b82d57180c81e8e86e94b79a81e42661ab79a4 100644 --- a/island_species_richness_terceira__S_terceira/metadata.yaml +++ b/island_species_richness_terceira__S_terceira/metadata.yaml @@ -16,34 +16,46 @@ target: symbol: S unit: "" description: Arthropod species richness per 1-ha pitfall-trap site on Terceira Island, Azores. - range: [0.0, 11.0] + range: + train: [0, 10] + test: [0, 11] inputs: - name: d symbol: D unit: "" description: Anthropogenic habitat-modification index — degree of disturbance along the gradient from undisturbed native forest to intensively managed pasture. - range: [14.70, 76.92] + range: + train: [15.0637, 75.5817] + test: [14.7005, 76.9155] - name: h symbol: H unit: m description: Altitude above sea level. - range: [13.95, 934.86] + range: + train: [13.951, 930] + test: [56.3745, 934.858] - name: p symbol: P unit: mm/yr description: Mean annual precipitation. - range: [1015.40, 3474.00] + range: + train: [1015.4, 3474] + test: [1015.9, 3461.5] - name: t symbol: T unit: degC description: Mean annual temperature. - range: [12.00, 18.35] + range: + train: [12.05, 18.35] + test: [12, 18.15] - name: sl symbol: Sl unit: degrees description: Terrain slope. - range: [0.40, 21.91] + range: + train: [1.08584, 21.9015] + test: [0.400647, 17.0603] # Dataset -- Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -53,6 +65,9 @@ data_files: n_train: 34 n_test: 18 +# Candidate prior constants — the `priors` prompt slot. +priors: [] # no candidate constants offered for this task + # Reference-baseline bank references: - id: cardoso_2020 diff --git a/lake_thermocline_depth_pilla__z_t/metadata.yaml b/lake_thermocline_depth_pilla__z_t/metadata.yaml index 7d1ca79bb499befa038dfd50b3b05727ba8a81de..50b8fa0ba143cbd0ab43cfe3c816cf4ca6b487df 100644 --- a/lake_thermocline_depth_pilla__z_t/metadata.yaml +++ b/lake_thermocline_depth_pilla__z_t/metadata.yaml @@ -18,7 +18,9 @@ target: interpolated summer measurements per lake and year, aggregated by median. Values are on a 0.5 m grid due to the uniform interpolation spacing of the source dataset. - range: [1.5, 42.0] + range: + train: [1.5, 42] + test: [1.5, 35.5] inputs: - name: A_s_km2 @@ -27,14 +29,18 @@ inputs: description: >- Lake surface area in square kilometres — the primary morphometric driver of wind-fetch-induced thermocline deepening. - range: [0.1, 895.5] + range: + train: [0.1, 895.47] + test: [0.1, 895.47] - name: Z_max_m symbol: "Z_max" unit: m description: >- Lake maximum depth in metres — an auxiliary covariate providing a physical upper bound on thermocline depth. - range: [5.5, 594.0] + range: + train: [5.5, 594] + test: [5.5, 594] data_files: train: data/train.csv # rank-based stratified sample (4 of every 5 rows) diff --git a/life_expectancy_preston__e0_vs_gdppc/metadata.yaml b/life_expectancy_preston__e0_vs_gdppc/metadata.yaml index 033ea9d873ba44024c385b362be9aba8dbf59e7e..751ab472689dac2a8aa5ad95dc89a1efcaf5fced 100644 --- a/life_expectancy_preston__e0_vs_gdppc/metadata.yaml +++ b/life_expectancy_preston__e0_vs_gdppc/metadata.yaml @@ -9,20 +9,6 @@ license: "CC0-1.0 (per-country life expectancy and income figures are uncopyrigh context: >- This task draws on national-level demographic and development economics data from a mid-twentieth-century cross-section of countries. -problem_statement: >- - Predict the sex-averaged life expectancy at birth (e0) of a country - in the 1960s cross-section as a function of national income per head - expressed in constant 1963 US dollars. Each row is one country - (population >= 2 million). The task asks for a single closed-form - concave curve over the income range, fitted on a representative - income-stratified training sample and evaluated on held-out countries - spanning the same range — the within-cross-section curve recovery - Preston (1975) performed independently for each decade. (Earlier - versions used a cross-decade extrapolation split; that conflated the - curve with Preston's documented ~13-year cross-decade level shift and - was replaced by this single-cross-section design in the 2026-05-29 - audit re-split — see prep_data.py.) - target: name: e0_vs_gdppc symbol: e0 @@ -33,8 +19,8 @@ target: (1975) Appendix A, Tables A-1/A-2/A-3, hand-transcribed from the original UN Demographic Yearbook figures. range: - - 31.6 - - 74.23 + train: [31.6, 74.225] + test: [36.75, 72.805] inputs: - name: gdppc @@ -46,8 +32,8 @@ inputs: Source: Preston (1975) Appendix A (national income figures from UN Statistical Yearbook and Kuznets 1956). range: - - 40.0 - - 2995.0 + train: [44, 2995] + test: [40, 1987] data_files: train: data/train.csv # 1960s cross-section, representative income-stratified split: 38 rows @@ -162,7 +148,6 @@ caps: max_init_size_per_param: 1 fit_timeout_seconds: null -reference_baseline_id: preston_1975_logistic # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/liion_capacity_fade_nasa_pcoe__capacity_Ah/metadata.yaml b/liion_capacity_fade_nasa_pcoe__capacity_Ah/metadata.yaml index 250f9f5cb9f249c207aeb1fa4fb8a04afe3151c5..df79267d5ad43a5914a4850e5a0529a5c7c74518 100644 --- a/liion_capacity_fade_nasa_pcoe__capacity_Ah/metadata.yaml +++ b/liion_capacity_fade_nasa_pcoe__capacity_Ah/metadata.yaml @@ -14,14 +14,18 @@ target: symbol: Q unit: Ah description: Discharge capacity per cycle (time-integrated absolute current over a full discharge event). - range: [1.1538, 2.0353] + range: + train: [1.33701, 1.88223] + test: [1.15382, 2.03534] inputs: - name: cycle_index symbol: k unit: "" description: Per-cell discharge cycle counter, starting from 1; an integer index of how many full charge–discharge cycles the cell has completed. - range: [1, 168] + range: + train: [32, 128] + test: [1, 168] # Dataset — Type I, two-file flat layout. Source: NASA PCoE Battery # Dataset (Saha & Goebel 2007), 4 18650 NMC Li-ion cells (B0005, @@ -76,7 +80,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 4 # A, B, C, D n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.1207, r2: 0.7912} + measured: {rmse: 0.121531, r2: 0.788240} # === v2 anti-dump caps === caps: diff --git a/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/formulas/reference_metrics.json index 5a3954a181d4ddb0f18a680804f33d4de226f970..8eb69478b3db331eea644c9962b9e81cf9fbbaff 100644 --- a/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -11,16 +11,19 @@ "C_C": -0.000306 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": {}, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_cauchy_1836.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.001049107740481774, "mae": 0.003444374882347796, + "mape": 0.0024168419637406228, + "mdae": 0.0034000000000000696, "mse": 1.591393434745938e-05, "n_finite": 170, "r2": 0.1943706392108332, "rmse": 0.003989227287014289, "smape": 0.002415657424008889 - } + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_cauchy_1836.md" }, "jakubczyk_2023": { "equation_loc": "Jakubczyk (2023) Eq. 3 (Sellmeier, PDF p. 3/8), Eq. 2 (thermal coefficient, PDF p. 3), Eq. 1 (linear T shift, PDF p. 3). LAW_CONSTANTS from Table 2 (Sellmeier) and Table 3 (thermal), ethylene glycol (EG/MEG) row, PDF p. 8.", @@ -38,18 +41,21 @@ "C_UV": 0.01332 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": { - "T_ref": 20.0 - }, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_jakubczyk_2023.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 4.080840156334191e-05, "mae": 0.0001337898164209085, + "mape": 9.396491614168303e-05, + "mdae": 9.398540797711519e-05, "mse": 3.033315021543341e-08, "n_finite": 170, "r2": 0.9984644101272994, "rmse": 0.00017416414733071044, "smape": 9.39648168545186e-05 - } + }, + "other_constants": { + "T_ref": 20.0 + }, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_jakubczyk_2023.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/metadata.yaml b/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/metadata.yaml index 4770d1ba555e0fa5dabaa86faed2a4e292b8e379..75078c40c003f78af0d746538971b1c6a031f19e 100644 --- a/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/metadata.yaml +++ b/liquid_dispersion_glycols__refractive_index/metadata.yaml @@ -16,19 +16,25 @@ target: symbol: "n" unit: "" description: Refractive index of ethylene glycol at the given wavelength and temperature. - range: [1.4160, 1.4509] + range: + train: [1.4233, 1.4509] + test: [1.416, 1.4353] inputs: - name: lambda_um symbol: "lambda" unit: um description: Vacuum wavelength of light in micrometres. - range: [0.394, 1.071] + range: + train: [0.394, 0.635] + test: [0.651, 1.071] - name: temperature_C symbol: "T" unit: degC description: Liquid temperature. - range: [1.0, 45.0] + range: + train: [1, 45] + test: [1, 45] # Dataset - Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -49,7 +55,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 8 n_other_constants: 1 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.0002, r2: 0.9985} + measured: {rmse: 0.000174164, r2: 0.998464} - id: cauchy_1836 label: "Cauchy 1836 - three-term isothermal dispersion power series (Eq. 55)" formula_file: formulas/cauchy_1836.py @@ -57,7 +63,7 @@ references: n_law_constants: 3 n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 - measured: {rmse: 0.0040, r2: 0.1944} + measured: {rmse: 0.00398923, r2: 0.194371} # Candidate prior constants - the `priors` prompt slot. # Audit 2026-05-29 (逐条审核, effort=max): declared the Eq.1 reference temperature (20 degC) in @@ -100,4 +106,4 @@ validity_rubrics: - "predicted refractive index remains greater than 1 across the transparent liquid (lambda, T) domain" - "predicted n is finite and smooth with no resonance poles or discontinuities inside the transparent wavelength-temperature domain [0.394, 1.071] um x [1, 45] C" -best_baseline: 0.0002 +best_baseline: 0.000174164 diff --git a/lpbf_meltpool_rosenthal_inconel__depth/metadata.yaml b/lpbf_meltpool_rosenthal_inconel__depth/metadata.yaml index 73e78e1c04476af102e73f7cda23ce1db968969c..7f0b4ffffe5f73da3db4c1b711b29b2dc7d3331f 100644 --- a/lpbf_meltpool_rosenthal_inconel__depth/metadata.yaml +++ b/lpbf_meltpool_rosenthal_inconel__depth/metadata.yaml @@ -15,24 +15,32 @@ target: symbol: d unit: um description: Maximum depth of the laser melt-pool cross-section, measured by optical microscopy perpendicular to the scan direction. - range: [28.0, 232.0] + range: + train: [101.292, 231.633] + test: [29, 170.41] inputs: - name: laser_power_W symbol: P unit: W description: Incident laser power delivered to the workpiece surface. - range: [137.0, 326.0] + range: + train: [245, 325] + test: [137.9, 195] - name: scan_velocity_mm_per_s symbol: V unit: mm/s description: Laser beam scan velocity along the track direction. - range: [399.0, 1201.0] + range: + train: [800, 1200] + test: [400, 1200] - name: beam_diameter_um symbol: D4sigma unit: um description: Laser beam D4-sigma diameter at the workpiece surface (four times the 1/e^2 radius). - range: [48.0, 171.0] + range: + train: [49, 82] + test: [100, 170] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout # OOD split axis: beam_diameter_um / material system. @@ -68,30 +76,6 @@ references: rmse: 35.525694 r2: 0.268688 -auditor_notes: - neg_r2_disclosure: - severity: ACCEPTABLE_PER_E6_MIXED_BANK - baseline: king_2014_normalized_enthalpy - pooled_r2: -0.852250 - pooled_rmse: 56.538059 - best_positive_r2_baseline: promoppatum_2017_rosenthal - best_positive_r2: 0.268688 - summary: >- - King 2014 normalized-enthalpy baseline yields pooled R² = -0.852 / RMSE = 56.54 µm - on the OOD test split. The mixed bank satisfies §9.6 via promoppatum_2017_rosenthal - (R²=0.269). Anchor-scale check: RMSE (56.54 µm) < target span (141.4 µm) — §9.18 - anchor-scale violation NOT triggered. §9.14 (feature-OOD legitimate) applies. - citation: "AUDIT_CHECKLIST.md v0.5 §E6 (mixed-bank partial-negative-R² annotation) + data_spec §9.14 (cross-feature OOD legitimately produces negative pooled R²)" - root_cause: >- - King 2014 coefficients (316L stainless steel, Table 3, PDF p. 36) and the graphically - derived d/sigma linear fit (PDF §5.3, Fig. 8) were calibrated on 316L specimens. - The benchmark test set contains Inconel 718 specimens with substantially different - thermal properties (higher Tm, different absorptivity). The normalized-enthalpy - scaling does not account for alloy-specific melt-pool geometry; systematic under- or - over-prediction on IN718 is expected and constitutes a cross-material OOD probe. - # FM E6 annotation added by subagent L 2026-05-26 (wave-3 re-audit). - # Policy: §9.14 only (RMSE 56.54 < span 141.4, bank beats naive via promoppatum). - # FM C12 fix (2026-05-26): removed 4 leaking priors that exactly matched # LAW_CONSTANTS in the shipped formulas: # absorptivity_rosenthal_in718=0.4 → promoppatum_2017_rosenthal.py LAW_CONSTANTS["absorptivity"] diff --git a/magnet_3c90_core_loss__log_P_vol/metadata.yaml b/magnet_3c90_core_loss__log_P_vol/metadata.yaml index 0fbf723dfc599c4234adcd06d0514fc39fd8949a..6f56eada93b5c9f125b34f928d37fa5975211f45 100644 --- a/magnet_3c90_core_loss__log_P_vol/metadata.yaml +++ b/magnet_3c90_core_loss__log_P_vol/metadata.yaml @@ -14,19 +14,25 @@ target: symbol: log10(P_vol) unit: log10(kW/m^3) description: Base-10 logarithm of the volumetric core loss in kW per cubic metre, computed as the area of the measured B-H hysteresis loop times the excitation frequency, normalised by the core volume. - range: [-0.2559, 3.3165] + range: + train: [-0.255893, 3.31654] + test: [-0.096799, 3.31479] inputs: - name: f_Hz symbol: f unit: Hz description: Excitation frequency of the sinusoidal/triangular/trapezoidal flux waveform. - range: [49950.0, 446690.0] + range: + train: [49950, 446690] + test: [49950, 446430] - name: B_peak_T symbol: B unit: T description: Peak flux density max|B(t)| of the excitation waveform. - range: [0.0107, 0.2815] + range: + train: [0.01073, 0.281542] + test: [0.011096, 0.278339] - name: T_C symbol: T unit: degC diff --git a/mars_crater_size_frequency__N_cum/metadata.yaml b/mars_crater_size_frequency__N_cum/metadata.yaml index 2d9209fa8802008c5a66befa90f13ad1976a4e4e..16b343d453cee9f8ae5a23be7ad8cd3cf6139239 100644 --- a/mars_crater_size_frequency__N_cum/metadata.yaml +++ b/mars_crater_size_frequency__N_cum/metadata.yaml @@ -14,24 +14,32 @@ target: symbol: N(>=D) unit: km^-2 description: Cumulative areal density of Mars craters with diameter at or above the bin's lower edge (craters per km^2 of Mars surface). Spans ~5 orders of magnitude across the diameter range; the declared metric is log_mae (log10-space mean absolute error), the natural error scale for a multi-decade positive target. - range: [1.38e-08, 2.66e-03] + range: + train: [1.26383e-06, 0.00265434] + test: [1.38123e-08, 9.94485e-07] inputs: - name: D_lower_km symbol: D_lo unit: km description: Lower diameter edge of the logarithmic bin (km). PRIMARY input — the cumulative SFD closed form N(>=D) is a function of this threshold diameter alone; all three reference baselines use this input only. - range: [1.0, 664.0] + range: + train: [1, 117.377] + test: [128, 663.982] - name: D_upper_km symbol: D_up unit: km description: Upper diameter edge of the bin (= D_lower * 2^0.125). DISTRACTOR — perfectly collinear with D_lower (their ratio is the fixed bin factor 2^0.125 ≈ 1.0905), so it carries no information beyond D_lower. No reference baseline uses it. - range: [1.09, 724.08] + range: + train: [1.09051, 128] + test: [139.585, 724.077] - name: D_geomean_km symbol: D_gm unit: km description: Geometric-mean diameter of the bin, sqrt(D_lower * D_upper). DISTRACTOR — also collinear with D_lower (= D_lower * 2^0.0625). The natural representative point of a log-spaced bin, but it adds no information for the cumulative target. No reference baseline uses it. - range: [1.04, 689.97] + range: + train: [1.04427, 122.573] + test: [133.667, 693.379] # NOTE: the aggregated source CSV carries three host-only columns that # are NOT released as inputs because each would shortcut the target: diff --git a/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/formulas/reference_metrics.json index db6720779484bd546ea1004e714c777278e77549..f6699c72efeb6cc67b89f63dc6b4e94c9eedd1b5 100644 --- a/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -9,6 +9,17 @@ "anderson_nafe_exponent": -1.3333333333333333 }, "local_fittable": [], + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.15478535717563074, + "mae": 42.370561483376456, + "mape": 0.41397223836735497, + "mdae": 29.17506039866212, + "mse": 3552.625510755104, + "n_finite": 177, + "r2": 0.33474272314988407, + "rmse": 59.603905163630884, + "smape": 0.34189276891894305 + }, "other_constants": { "a_by_csid_1": 3.677239, "a_by_csid_2": 3.671468, @@ -19,15 +30,7 @@ "a_by_csid_7": 3.675828, "a_global": 3.677239 }, - "paper_ref": "summary_birch_murnaghan_kvrh.md", - "pooled": { - "mae": 42.370561483376456, - "mse": 3552.625510755104, - "n_finite": 177, - "r2": 0.33474272314988407, - "rmse": 59.603905163630884, - "smape": 0.34189276891894305 - } + "paper_ref": "summary_birch_murnaghan_kvrh.md" }, "cohen_1985": { "equation_loc": "Cohen 1985 Phys. Rev. B 32:7988 \u2014 K = (1972 - 220*lambda)/d^3.5; this baseline uses lambda=0 (group-IV) per-paper prefactor 1972 with d = V_atomic^(1/3); documented in summary_birch_murnaghan_kvrh.md \u00a73", @@ -39,16 +42,19 @@ "cohen_prefactor": 1972.0 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": {}, - "paper_ref": "summary_birch_murnaghan_kvrh.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.24815698656250143, "mae": 65.34665235943552, + "mape": 0.4638685618593104, + "mdae": 54.18721988785896, "mse": 7173.539695403433, "n_finite": 177, "r2": -0.3433021489861354, "rmse": 84.6967513863633, "smape": 0.542397306618077 - } + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_birch_murnaghan_kvrh.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/metadata.yaml b/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/metadata.yaml index 10700e38d0c368fde9af1611a915c197dec04400..3d07540a928ae320f691297f7d71aa3778f1566d 100644 --- a/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/metadata.yaml +++ b/materials_project_elastic_birch_murnaghan__K_VRH/metadata.yaml @@ -15,7 +15,9 @@ target: symbol: "K_VRH" unit: GPa description: Voigt-Reuss-Hill average polycrystalline bulk modulus, computed from the DFT-PBE elastic tensor via K_VRH = (K_Voigt + K_Reuss) / 2. - range: [6.476, 401.329] + range: + train: [7.17361, 401.329] + test: [6.47613, 365.086] inputs: - name: V_atomic_A3 @@ -23,25 +25,33 @@ inputs: unit: "angstrom^3" dtype: float description: Atomic volume — unit-cell volume divided by the number of atomic sites. - range: [6.994, 63.737] + range: + train: [6.99439, 63.7371] + test: [7.38785, 63.7158] - name: M_avg_amu symbol: "M_avg" unit: amu dtype: float description: Average atomic mass per site, computed from the chemical composition. - range: [3.974, 208.980] + range: + train: [3.97447, 208.98] + test: [6.941, 195.078] - name: density_g_cm3 symbol: "rho" unit: "g/cm^3" dtype: float description: Mass density derived from atomic mass and unit-cell volume. - range: [0.568, 21.993] + range: + train: [0.568848, 21.993] + test: [0.568005, 20.6092] - name: crystal_system_id symbol: "cs" unit: "" dtype: float description: "Crystal system encoded as integer: 2=monoclinic, 3=orthorhombic, 4=tetragonal, 5=trigonal, 6=hexagonal, 7=cubic." - range: [2, 7] + range: + train: [2, 7] + test: [2, 7] data_files: train: data/train.csv diff --git a/mauna_loa_co2_keeling_curve_noaa__co2_ppm/metadata.yaml b/mauna_loa_co2_keeling_curve_noaa__co2_ppm/metadata.yaml index 6c78b834b8146db8d89bd2fa1aceea3b2a28013a..3ce01b76824431300381fbf8b38ac5945cb66525 100644 --- a/mauna_loa_co2_keeling_curve_noaa__co2_ppm/metadata.yaml +++ b/mauna_loa_co2_keeling_curve_noaa__co2_ppm/metadata.yaml @@ -14,36 +14,50 @@ target: symbol: c unit: ppm description: Monthly mean mole fraction of CO2 in dry air at Mauna Loa Observatory on the WMO X2019 calibration scale. - range: [312.42, 431.12] + range: + train: [312.42, 414.86] + test: [411.49, 431.12] inputs: - name: year_decimal symbol: t unit: yr description: Decimal year of the monthly observation, equal to the midpoint of the calendar month in NOAA's convention (e.g. 1958.2027 for 1958-03). The single physical predictor used by all three reference baselines. - range: [1958.2027, 2026.2917] + range: + train: [1958.2, 2019.96] + test: [2020.04, 2026.29] - name: year symbol: Y description: Integer calendar year — redundant with int(year_decimal). Distractor input; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [1958, 2026] + range: + train: [1958, 2019] + test: [2020, 2026] - name: month symbol: m description: Integer calendar month (1=January..12=December) — redundant with the fractional part of year_decimal. Distractor input; not used by any reference baseline. - range: [1, 12] + range: + train: [1, 12] + test: [1, 12] - name: ndays symbol: nd description: Number of daily measurements contributing to the monthly mean (1-31), or -1 sentinel for the pre-NOAA SIO-era rows where this count is not available. Measurement-quality flag (not a physical CO2 predictor); distractor input. - range: [-1, 31] + range: + train: [-1, 31] + test: [17, 31] - name: sdev symbol: σ_d unit: ppm description: Within-month standard deviation of daily mean CO2 (~0.1-1.3 ppm), or -9.99 sentinel for the pre-NOAA SIO-era rows where this is not available. Measurement-quality flag; distractor input. - range: [-9.99, 1.31] + range: + train: [-9.99, 1.31] + test: [0.22, 1.24] - name: unc symbol: u unit: ppm description: NOAA's combined uncertainty estimate on the monthly mean (~0.1-0.6 ppm), or -0.99 sentinel for the pre-NOAA SIO-era rows. Measurement-quality flag; distractor input. - range: [-0.99, 0.58] + range: + train: [-0.99, 0.58] + test: [0.08, 0.51] # Dataset — Type I, two-file flat layout. Source: NOAA Global Monitoring # Laboratory continuous in-situ monthly mean CO2 record at Mauna Loa diff --git a/metabolic_scaling_anage__log_bmr_W/metadata.yaml b/metabolic_scaling_anage__log_bmr_W/metadata.yaml index 47677849fa67c14fa414fcd1053d5acf6be48c99..47d5262abbd2d50e8c4e414b54a439475fee379a 100644 --- a/metabolic_scaling_anage__log_bmr_W/metadata.yaml +++ b/metabolic_scaling_anage__log_bmr_W/metadata.yaml @@ -14,14 +14,18 @@ target: symbol: log10(B) unit: log10(W) description: Base-10 logarithm of basal metabolic rate in watts. - range: [-1.5686, 3.3686] + range: + train: [-0.818156, 1.02206] + test: [-1.56864, 3.36857] inputs: - name: body_mass_g symbol: M unit: g description: Adult body mass in grams (raw, not log-transformed). - range: [3.7, 3672000.0] + range: + train: [39, 3924.3] + test: [3.7, 3.672e+06] # Dataset — Type I, two-file flat layout. Source: AnAge build 14 (de # Magalhaes 2024 release). Filters: diff --git a/mincer_earnings_acs_pums__log_wage/metadata.yaml b/mincer_earnings_acs_pums__log_wage/metadata.yaml index db385b2f4e44c80730bd9908c433cc12f77b31a7..68cb1eef6183857332372a20f314068b87a0d84d 100644 --- a/mincer_earnings_acs_pums__log_wage/metadata.yaml +++ b/mincer_earnings_acs_pums__log_wage/metadata.yaml @@ -13,7 +13,9 @@ target: symbol: "ln Y" unit: ln(USD) description: Natural logarithm of inflation-adjusted annual wage and salary income reported by the worker. - range: [1.396, 13.493] + range: + train: [1.39639, 13.4929] + test: [3.00583, 13.4929] inputs: - name: SCHL_years @@ -25,7 +27,9 @@ inputs: symbol: "x" unit: years description: Potential years of post-schooling work experience, calculated as age minus years of schooling minus 6. - range: [0, 58] + range: + train: [0, 58] + test: [0, 58] data_files: train: data/train.csv # representative split (see prep_data.py): 53,333 workers diff --git a/neo_size_frequency_distribution__N_cum_H/metadata.yaml b/neo_size_frequency_distribution__N_cum_H/metadata.yaml index 1fcd4e16bd0b503e3ac33833bd9782eb45a1901e..73af478507fc9441729868f78c7fed1136c3a0a3 100644 --- a/neo_size_frequency_distribution__N_cum_H/metadata.yaml +++ b/neo_size_frequency_distribution__N_cum_H/metadata.yaml @@ -13,15 +13,19 @@ target: name: N_cum_H symbol: N(- - Predict the nuclear binding energy per nucleon BE/A (in MeV) of an - atomic nucleus, given its proton number Z and neutron number N (and - derived quantities A = Z+N, the neutron excess N-Z, the isospin - asymmetry (N-Z)/A, a Coulomb proxy Z(Z-1)/A^(1/3), and a parity - indicator). Training rows cover well-measured nuclei up to lead - (Z ≤ 82); test rows cover the superheavy region (Z ≥ 83) — so the - task probes how well a mass model extrapolates beyond the calibrated - chart of nuclides. - # Background knowledge — the `context` prompt slot. Science framing only: # no task instructions, no column listing, no priors. context: >- @@ -28,39 +16,53 @@ target: symbol: B/A unit: MeV description: Binding energy per nucleon — total nuclear binding energy divided by mass number A. - range: [0.961639, 8.794555] + range: + train: [0.961639, 8.79456] + test: [7.25016, 7.85748] inputs: - name: Z symbol: Z unit: count description: Proton number (atomic number). - range: [1, 110] + range: + train: [1, 82] + test: [83, 110] - name: N symbol: N unit: count description: Neutron number. - range: [1, 160] + range: + train: [1, 133] + test: [102, 160] - name: A symbol: A unit: count description: Mass number, A = Z + N. - range: [2, 270] + range: + train: [2, 215] + test: [186, 270] - name: NZ_diff symbol: N-Z unit: count description: Neutron excess, N minus Z. - range: [-5, 59] + range: + train: [-5, 51] + test: [18, 59] - name: asym symbol: I unit: dimensionless description: Isospin asymmetry, (N - Z) / A. - range: [-0.5, 0.666667] + range: + train: [-0.5, 0.666667] + test: [0.096774, 0.253219] - name: coul_proxy symbol: Z(Z-1)/A^(1/3) unit: dimensionless description: Coulomb proxy, Z(Z-1) / A^(1/3) — proportional to electrostatic self-energy. - range: [0.0, 1857.384241] + range: + train: [0, 1180.75] + test: [1130.85, 1857.38] - name: pair symbol: delta unit: categorical diff --git a/ocean_mesoscale_eddy_closure__Sx/metadata.yaml b/ocean_mesoscale_eddy_closure__Sx/metadata.yaml index 65c0ff2515188271fb6b214b2ca26784fc59b51b..6f99c94d5ac29c9d5a3f2e5497cbf1c46f4da176 100644 --- a/ocean_mesoscale_eddy_closure__Sx/metadata.yaml +++ b/ocean_mesoscale_eddy_closure__Sx/metadata.yaml @@ -17,49 +17,67 @@ target: symbol: S_x unit: m s^-2 description: Zonal component of the subgrid-scale eddy momentum forcing diagnosed from coarse-graining a high-resolution quasi-geostrophic velocity field — the divergence of the Leonard/Reynolds stress tensor in the zonal direction. - range: [-1.67125285e-07, 1.84873441e-07] + range: + train: [-1.67125e-07, 1.75684e-07] + test: [-1.39468e-07, 1.84873e-07] inputs: - name: u symbol: u unit: m s^-1 description: Coarse-grained zonal velocity at the surface layer of the quasi-geostrophic simulation. - range: [-7.96905228e-02, 7.38049104e-02] + range: + train: [-0.070438, 0.0738049] + test: [-0.0796905, 0.0640196] - name: v symbol: v unit: m s^-1 description: Coarse-grained meridional velocity at the surface layer. - range: [-7.46579791e-02, 8.79800756e-02] + range: + train: [-0.074658, 0.0765987] + test: [-0.0695837, 0.0879801] - name: zeta symbol: "ζ" unit: s^-1 description: Relative vorticity of the coarse-grained flow, defined as the curl of the horizontal velocity. - range: [-3.34078588e-06, 3.03244714e-06] + range: + train: [-3.34079e-06, 2.99727e-06] + test: [-3.33868e-06, 3.03245e-06] - name: D symbol: D unit: s^-1 description: Shearing deformation rate of the coarse-grained flow. - range: [-2.12261552e-06, 2.08175902e-06] + range: + train: [-2.12262e-06, 2.01857e-06] + test: [-1.87637e-06, 2.08176e-06] - name: Dtilde symbol: "D̃" unit: s^-1 description: Stretching deformation rate of the coarse-grained flow. - range: [-2.25952947e-06, 2.54185366e-06] + range: + train: [-2.25953e-06, 2.54185e-06] + test: [-2.19929e-06, 2.41955e-06] - name: d_zeta2_dx symbol: "∂(ζ²)/∂x" unit: s^-2 m^-1 description: Zonal spatial derivative of the squared relative vorticity (gradient of enstrophy). - range: [-1.76202879e-16, 1.78375273e-16] + range: + train: [-1.67011e-16, 1.78375e-16] + test: [-1.76203e-16, 1.47034e-16] - name: d_zetaD_dx symbol: "∂(ζD)/∂x" unit: s^-2 m^-1 description: Zonal spatial derivative of the product of relative vorticity and shearing deformation. - range: [-6.79301290e-17, 4.61087481e-17] + range: + train: [-5.89565e-17, 4.5862e-17] + test: [-6.79301e-17, 4.61087e-17] - name: d_zetaDtilde_dy symbol: "∂(ζD̃)/∂y" unit: s^-2 m^-1 description: Meridional spatial derivative of the product of relative vorticity and stretching deformation. - range: [-7.16360334e-17, 6.76497490e-17] + range: + train: [-7.1636e-17, 6.4451e-17] + test: [-6.2099e-17, 6.76497e-17] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: diff --git a/parker_spiral_imf__B_phi/metadata.yaml b/parker_spiral_imf__B_phi/metadata.yaml index d0b4256f068ec4cf41842b438747879fd71f622b..a7cb0fdcbfcaeda1e371076a01a9d1c593bdb7bc 100644 --- a/parker_spiral_imf__B_phi/metadata.yaml +++ b/parker_spiral_imf__B_phi/metadata.yaml @@ -14,24 +14,32 @@ target: symbol: "B_phi" unit: nT description: Daily mean azimuthal (tangential) component of the interplanetary magnetic field at L1, positive in the prograde direction of solar rotation. - range: [-12.009, 10.855] + range: + train: [-12.0083, 10.8542] + test: [-6.45, 8.4375] inputs: - name: B_r_nT symbol: "B_r" unit: nT description: Daily mean radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field at L1, positive outward (away from the Sun). - range: [-15.675, 9.284] + range: + train: [-15.675, 9.28333] + test: [-5.96667, 4.77083] - name: v_sw_km_s symbol: "v_sw" unit: km/s description: Daily mean bulk-flow solar wind speed at L1. - range: [262.6, 740.6] + range: + train: [262.667, 740.583] + test: [267.167, 697.167] - name: r_AU symbol: "r" unit: AU description: Heliocentric distance of the observation point in astronomical units. Constant at 1.0 for all L1/OMNI measurements; included for formula generalisation to multi-r datasets. - range: [1.0, 1.0] + range: + train: [1, 1] + test: [1, 1] data_files: train: data/train.csv diff --git a/pfas_soil_sorption__log_kd/metadata.yaml b/pfas_soil_sorption__log_kd/metadata.yaml index 935fd428e40a888ca5cf3b2501afe3c488e67172..03193b5728ce49993b7a58e3b3f4a67e6dbfe7de 100644 --- a/pfas_soil_sorption__log_kd/metadata.yaml +++ b/pfas_soil_sorption__log_kd/metadata.yaml @@ -14,19 +14,25 @@ target: symbol: log Kd unit: log10(L/kg) description: Log10 of the solid-liquid distribution coefficient, the ratio of PFAS concentration in soil to PFAS concentration in water at equilibrium. - range: [-1.40, 3.96] + range: + train: [-1.39794, 2.76225] + test: [-0.142668, 3.95321] inputs: - name: MW symbol: MW unit: g/mol description: Molecular weight of the PFAS compound. - range: [113.99, 770.08] + range: + train: [113.993, 642.048] + test: [463.97, 770.072] - name: pKa1 symbol: pKa1 unit: "" description: First acid dissociation constant; controls PFAS ionization at environmental pH. - range: [-0.20, 14.20] + range: + train: [-0.2, 14.2] + test: [-0.2, 14.2] # Wave-16 fix (2026-05-27): pKa2 dropped from input schema. # Was 92.5% NaN (FM-G3) — "monoprotic PFAS lack a second protonation site". # No shipped baseline uses pKa2 (fabregat_2025 uses log_Kow+foc; @@ -35,62 +41,86 @@ inputs: symbol: C unit: count description: Total number of carbon atoms in the PFAS molecule; proxy for chain length. - range: [2.0, 19.0] + range: + train: [2, 15] + test: [8, 19] - name: F_num symbol: F unit: count description: Number of fluorine atoms; reflects degree of fluorination. - range: [3.0, 27.0] + range: + train: [3, 17] + test: [15, 27] - name: F_pct symbol: F% unit: "%" description: Fluorine mass percentage of the PFAS molecule. - range: [43.32, 71.86] + range: + train: [43.3269, 68.845] + test: [48.2033, 71.8533] - name: log_S symbol: log S unit: log10(mg/L) description: Log10 aqueous solubility of the PFAS compound. - range: [-2.70, 7.99] + range: + train: [0.905256, 7.98878] + test: [-2.69379, 2.79713] - name: log_Kow symbol: log Kow unit: "" description: Log10 octanol-water partition coefficient; primary hydrophobicity descriptor for PFAS sorption. - range: [0.90, 9.00] + range: + train: [0.9, 4.9] + test: [5, 9] - name: pH symbol: pH unit: "" description: Soil solution pH; controls PFAS speciation and surface charge on soil particles. - range: [2.76, 8.96] + range: + train: [2.76, 8.78] + test: [3.6, 8.96] - name: CEC symbol: CEC unit: cmol+/kg description: Cation exchange capacity of the soil; governs electrostatic sorption of cationic PFAS. - range: [0.05, 140.00] + range: + train: [0.05, 140] + test: [0.45, 140] - name: Sand symbol: Sand unit: "%" description: Sand mass fraction in soil texture. - range: [0.00, 100.00] + range: + train: [0, 100] + test: [0, 100] - name: Silt symbol: Silt unit: "%" description: Silt mass fraction in soil texture. - range: [0.00, 100.00] + range: + train: [0, 100] + test: [0, 100] - name: Clay symbol: Clay unit: "%" description: Clay mass fraction in soil texture. - range: [0.00, 69.30] + range: + train: [0, 69.3] + test: [0, 65.6] - name: Corg symbol: Corg unit: "%" description: Organic carbon content of the soil; primary driver of hydrophobic PFAS sorption. - range: [0.03, 53.60] + range: + train: [0.03, 53.6] + test: [0.03, 53.6] - name: foc symbol: foc unit: "" description: Fraction of organic carbon (= Corg / 100); dimensionless organic carbon fraction used directly in partitioning relationships. - range: [0.0003, 0.5360] + range: + train: [0.0003, 0.536] + test: [0.0003, 0.536] # Type I two-file layout. OOD split axis: log_Kow (hydrophobicity). # Train: log_Kow < 5.0 (short- to medium-chain PFAS, 686 rows). diff --git a/pp_total_cross_section_donnachie_landshoff__sigma_tot/metadata.yaml b/pp_total_cross_section_donnachie_landshoff__sigma_tot/metadata.yaml index 7652cc1c38bdf1019eed34553a1ba36a29547d81..2362f5b257ff0fe379885754f4c2b31edc72ad6c 100644 --- a/pp_total_cross_section_donnachie_landshoff__sigma_tot/metadata.yaml +++ b/pp_total_cross_section_donnachie_landshoff__sigma_tot/metadata.yaml @@ -13,14 +13,18 @@ target: symbol: σ_tot unit: mb description: Measured total proton-proton hadronic cross-section at a given center-of-mass energy squared - range: [36.68, 170.00] + range: + train: [36.68, 44.1] + test: [48, 170] inputs: - name: s symbol: s unit: GeV² description: Mandelstam s, the square of the center-of-mass collision energy, computed from the lab-frame beam momentum - range: [25.09, 9025000000.00] + range: + train: [25.0963, 7474.14] + test: [18769, 9.02466e+09] data_files: train: data/train.csv # sqrt(s) in [5, 100) GeV — ISR / fixed-target era @@ -140,7 +144,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: block_halzen_2005 # strongest harness-computed baseline (anchor) # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/proton_em_form_factor__GE_over_GD/metadata.yaml b/proton_em_form_factor__GE_over_GD/metadata.yaml index 6afe9b3e5e6b6e2da96ea829e6d5575ecddf882c..56376c48229bf441d17cb3efaac06b999a0adc73 100644 --- a/proton_em_form_factor__GE_over_GD/metadata.yaml +++ b/proton_em_form_factor__GE_over_GD/metadata.yaml @@ -15,14 +15,18 @@ target: symbol: "G_E / G_D" unit: "" description: Ratio of the proton electric Sachs form factor to the standard dipole form factor, measured as a function of four-momentum transfer squared. - range: [0.287, 1.000] + range: + train: [0.844, 1] + test: [0.287, 0.837] inputs: - name: Q2_GeV2 symbol: "Q²" unit: GeV^2 description: Four-momentum transfer squared in electron-proton elastic scattering. - range: [0.007, 5.85] + range: + train: [0.007, 1.83] + test: [2.07, 5.85] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] @@ -92,33 +96,6 @@ references: # F8 same-form padding baseline. The task already ships a healthy 3-baseline bank. # Archived to .dropped_baselines/. See VERDICT.md. -auditor_notes: - neg_r2_disclosure: - severity: ACCEPTABLE_PER_E6_MIXED_BANK - baseline: hofstadter_1956 - pooled_r2: -5.8632 - pooled_rmse: 0.4090 - best_positive_r2_baseline: arrington_2007 - best_positive_r2: 0.9589 - summary: >- - Hofstadter (1956) dipole null model yields pooled R² = -5.86 / RMSE = 0.409 on the - high-Q² OOD test split (Q² = 2.07–5.85 GeV²). The mixed bank satisfies §9.6 via - arrington_2007 (R²=0.959) and bradford_2006 (R²=0.863). Anchor-scale check: - RMSE (0.409) < target span (0.550) — §9.18 anchor-scale violation NOT triggered. - §9.14 (feature-OOD legitimate) applies. - citation: "AUDIT_CHECKLIST.md v0.5 §E6 (mixed-bank partial-negative-R² annotation) + data_spec §9.14 (cross-feature OOD legitimately produces negative pooled R² for null/historical baseline)" - root_cause: >- - The Hofstadter 1956 dipole baseline predicts GE/GD ≡ 1 for all Q² (ratio identically - 1 when G_E^p = G_D). This is a by-design null model documenting the field's earliest - approximation (1956 exponential charge density → dipole form factor). At high Q² the - data shows GE/GD declining steeply below 1 (Arrington 2007 Table II, Q²=5.85 GeV² - gives GE/GD≈0.287 with TPE corrections). The flat prediction is catastrophically - wrong in the OOD high-Q² regime; the negative R² is the expected consequence of - using a null/span baseline on a strongly non-flat OOD test set. Docstring explicitly - documents the by-design degeneracy (formulas/hofstadter_1956.py lines 35-41). - # FM E6 annotation added by subagent L 2026-05-26 (wave-3 re-audit). - # Policy: §9.14 only (RMSE 0.409 < span 0.550, bank beats naive via arrington_2007). - caps: max_law_constants: 8 max_local_params: 0 @@ -126,7 +103,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: arrington_2007 # strongest baseline (lowest RMSE); the metric anchor # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/protoplanetary_disk_mmflux__F_mm/metadata.yaml b/protoplanetary_disk_mmflux__F_mm/metadata.yaml index 6b5ce2e01e7972abd9360738357a0a9c4292ba0c..d7a1e0c6d55cdd9d2afeac8bba8ec82e9d7fd07a 100644 --- a/protoplanetary_disk_mmflux__F_mm/metadata.yaml +++ b/protoplanetary_disk_mmflux__F_mm/metadata.yaml @@ -13,24 +13,32 @@ target: symbol: "log₁₀ Fₘₘ" unit: dex(Jy) description: Base-10 logarithm of the 1.3 mm continuum flux density of the protoplanetary disk at an assumed distance of 140 pc; includes both detections and 3-sigma upper limits. - range: [-2.96, -0.33] + range: + train: [-2.9586, -0.4632] + test: [-2.4685, -0.3331] inputs: - name: log10_M_star symbol: "log₁₀ M★" unit: dex(M_sun) description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar mass in solar masses, inferred via the DM97 pre-main-sequence evolutionary model grid. - range: [-2.10, 0.82] + range: + train: [-2.1, -0.3] + test: [-0.29, 0.82] - name: log10_M_star_BCAH98 symbol: "log₁₀ M★(BCAH98)" unit: dex(M_sun) description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar mass inferred via the BCAH98 pre-main-sequence evolutionary model grid. - range: [-1.93, 1.42] + range: + train: [-1.93, 0.18] + test: [-0.18, 1.42] - name: log10_M_star_SDF00 symbol: "log₁₀ M★(SDF00)" unit: dex(M_sun) description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar mass inferred via the SDF00 pre-main-sequence evolutionary model grid. - range: [-2.09, 0.87] + range: + train: [-2.09, 0.09] + test: [-0.29, 0.87] - name: is_F_uplim symbol: "θ_ul" unit: "" @@ -40,7 +48,9 @@ inputs: symbol: "log₁₀ t" unit: dex(Myr) description: Base-10 logarithm of stellar age in megayears, inferred via the DM97 pre-main-sequence evolutionary model grid. - range: [-1.57, 1.70] + range: + train: [-1.57, 1.7] + test: [-0.48, 1.29] priors: [] diff --git a/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/formulas/reference_metrics.json index bfe864e3c47e0f14fd2f444af7ab4e420cbeae96..406dab0f995c9ab5b186070d6f91c6fd18fa3886 100644 --- a/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -7,21 +7,24 @@ "kind": "reference", "law_constants": {}, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": { - "G_STC": 1000.0, - "P_dc0": 235.0, - "T_ref": 25.0, - "gamma": -0.0047 - }, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dobos_2014.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.03439140922070683, "mae": 8.99237020755145, + "mape": 0.09474200057459428, + "mdae": 4.793336640095234, "mse": 233.59524799117605, "n_finite": 6445, "r2": 0.9430182939380246, "rmse": 15.28382308164996, "smape": 0.07792000031097926 - } + }, + "other_constants": { + "G_STC": 1000.0, + "P_dc0": 235.0, + "T_ref": 25.0, + "gamma": -0.0047 + }, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dobos_2014.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/metadata.yaml b/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/metadata.yaml index 8da30f1d0390c703ea765f19eddb7750b9065bf6..4f7b791df707a12adc10de0e8c147b4622ead1db 100644 --- a/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/metadata.yaml +++ b/pv_module_temperature_efficiency_pvpmc__P_max/metadata.yaml @@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ target: power readings (shuntpdc_kw_avg_1..7) divided by the number of modules behind each shunt: P_max_W = shunt_kw * 1000 / (n_strings * 12). Shunts 1-6 have 14 strings (168 modules); shunt 7 has 12 strings (144 modules). - range: [7.29, 240.49] + range: + train: [9.58333, 240.486] + test: [7.29167, 237.262] inputs: - name: G_W_m2 @@ -28,28 +30,36 @@ inputs: description: >- Plane-of-array irradiance from the IMT Si reference cell (PVDAQ column irradiance_poa_o_2204). Filtered to G > 100 W/m² (daytime). - range: [100.2, 1212.0] + range: + train: [100.2, 1202] + test: [100.6, 1212] - name: T_module_C symbol: T_c unit: deg C description: >- Back-of-cell module temperature (PVDAQ column temperature_module_o_2206). Direct measurement; thermal sub-models (Fuentes, Sandia) are not needed. - range: [-7.02, 65.16] + range: + train: [-7.015, 58.67] + test: [16.89, 65.16] - name: WS_m_s symbol: WS unit: m/s description: >- Wind speed at the Vaisala WMT52 weather station (PVDAQ column wind_speed_o_2206). - range: [0.14, 6.73] + range: + train: [0.139, 6.732] + test: [0.397, 5.605] - name: air_mass symbol: AM unit: dimensionless description: >- Absolute air mass computed via the Kasten-Young (1989) formula from the solar zenith angle at each sample timestamp. - range: [1.04, 5.93] + range: + train: [1.03834, 5.92773] + test: [1.05651, 4.33666] data_files: train: data/train.csv @@ -58,15 +68,12 @@ n_train: 9665 n_test: 6445 # === Split === -split: - policy: time-based-60-40-on-unique-timestamps - description: >- - Unique timestamps sorted chronologically; earliest 60% -> train, - remaining 40% -> test. The v1 three-way 60/20/20 split has been - consolidated to v2 two-file layout (val+test merged into test). - contamination_risk: >- - high — the linear power-temperature coefficient model (Dobos 2014 Eq. 8, - Skoplaki-Palyvos 2009) is textbook PV and widely known. +# policy: time-based 60/40 on unique timestamps — timestamps sorted +# chronologically; earliest 60% -> train, remaining 40% -> test. (v1's +# three-way 60/20/20 split was consolidated to the v2 two-file layout, +# val+test merged into test.) +# contamination_risk: HIGH — the linear power-temperature coefficient model +# (Dobos 2014 Eq. 8; Skoplaki-Palyvos 2009) is textbook PV and widely known. # === Reference baselines === references: diff --git a/qg_turbulence_subgrid_pyqg__Sq/metadata.yaml b/qg_turbulence_subgrid_pyqg__Sq/metadata.yaml index b80e30a7155bb04c728e5817757b9ddd68caf004..bc9da5cd4f156b28806a46bc2add0482fa9e4b28 100644 --- a/qg_turbulence_subgrid_pyqg__Sq/metadata.yaml +++ b/qg_turbulence_subgrid_pyqg__Sq/metadata.yaml @@ -18,7 +18,9 @@ target: advection — the difference between the coarse-grained PV advection and the resolved-scale PV advection, diagnosed from Operator-1 coarse-graining of a high-resolution pyqg simulation. - range: [-8.38e-11, 9.55e-11] + range: + train: [-8.37335e-11, 9.54748e-11] + test: [-5.79921e-11, 7.51896e-11] inputs: - name: q @@ -26,29 +28,39 @@ inputs: unit: s^-1 description: Coarse-grained potential vorticity of the quasi-geostrophic flow (per layer). - range: [-4.19e-05, 4.09e-05] + range: + train: [-4.08978e-05, 4.08009e-05] + test: [-4.18535e-05, 3.82877e-05] - name: u symbol: u unit: m s^-1 description: Coarse-grained zonal velocity anomaly (background shear subtracted). - range: [-0.220, 0.26] + range: + train: [-0.219635, 0.251945] + test: [-0.197568, 0.258245] - name: v symbol: v unit: m s^-1 description: Coarse-grained meridional velocity anomaly. - range: [-0.268, 0.274] + range: + train: [-0.267149, 0.273982] + test: [-0.25534, 0.253673] - name: ubar symbol: "ū" unit: m s^-1 description: Full coarse-grained zonal velocity including the background shear (ubar = u + U_layer). - range: [-0.195, 0.284] + range: + train: [-0.194635, 0.276945] + test: [-0.172568, 0.283245] - name: vbar symbol: "v̄" unit: m s^-1 description: Full coarse-grained meridional velocity (equals v; no meridional background shear in the eddy configuration). - range: [-0.268, 0.274] + range: + train: [-0.267149, 0.273982] + test: [-0.25534, 0.253673] - name: lev symbol: "m" unit: "" diff --git a/red_giant_asteroseismology__delta_nu/metadata.yaml b/red_giant_asteroseismology__delta_nu/metadata.yaml index c6ee121de45b08b2098fe0e04bd160f40c06261c..9a75afb6cd1524f5bba02bfaaf195d3f4165d6e6 100644 --- a/red_giant_asteroseismology__delta_nu/metadata.yaml +++ b/red_giant_asteroseismology__delta_nu/metadata.yaml @@ -16,32 +16,42 @@ target: symbol: Δν unit: uHz description: Large frequency separation between consecutive radial-order p-mode oscillations in a red-giant power spectrum, measured by autocorrelating the power spectrum (Yu+2018 §3.2). - range: [0.747, 19.294] + range: + train: [0.747, 9.219] + test: [7.139, 19.294] inputs: - name: nu_max symbol: ν_max unit: uHz description: Frequency of maximum oscillation power, measured directly from the Gaussian fit to the power-spectrum envelope (Yu+2018 §3.1). Independent of delta_nu. - range: [3.97, 273.17] + range: + train: [3.97, 92.86] + test: [92.88, 273.16] - name: Teff symbol: T_eff unit: K description: Effective surface temperature from the Kepler Q1-17 DR25 stellar properties catalog, based on photometry and spectroscopy. Independent of seismology. - range: [3225.0, 6356.0] + range: + train: [3225, 6356] + test: [3546, 6088] - name: FeH symbol: "[Fe/H]" unit: dex description: Iron-to-hydrogen abundance ratio relative to solar, from spectroscopic measurements in the Kepler Q1-17 DR25 stellar properties catalog. Independent of seismology. - range: [-2.51, 1.01] + range: + train: [-2.47, 1] + test: [-2.5, 0.81] - name: phase symbol: phase unit: "" description: Evolutionary-phase label (integer-coded). Class 0 denotes an unclassified evolutionary stage, class 1 denotes a hydrogen-shell-burning red-giant-branch (RGB) star, class 2 denotes a helium-burning (red-clump / secondary-clump, HeB) star. Phase is derived from mixed-mode dipole period spacings (Elsworth+2017 / Vrard+2016) and is INDEPENDENT of the global delta_nu power-spectrum measurement. - range: [0, 2] + range: + train: [0, 2] + test: [0, 2] # FM E2 sister-divergence note (2026-05-26, wave-3 subagent L finding, wave-4 subagent M coordination): # Sister task red_giant_asteroseismology__nu_max (batch02) originally used a @@ -174,7 +184,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: yu_2018 # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: @@ -187,20 +196,3 @@ validity_rubrics: - "predicted Δν is well-defined for all valid inputs, including positive ν_max and Teff, FeH in dex, and phase codes 0, 1, and 2" best_baseline: 0.543631 # yu_2018 — rmse (lower is better); regenerated 2026-05-30 - -problem_statement: >- - Predict the large frequency separation delta_nu of solar-like oscillations - in 16 094 Kepler red giant stars from four independent observables: - the frequency of maximum oscillation power nu_max (Gaussian envelope fit - to the Kepler power spectrum), the effective temperature Teff and - metallicity [Fe/H] (Mathur+2017 photometry/spectroscopy), and a discrete - evolutionary-phase label distinguishing red-giant-branch from - helium-burning stars (Elsworth+2017 mixed-mode period spacings). - Each row corresponds to one star; there is no cluster structure. Target - values are of order 1 to 20 microhertz. The task asks for a closed-form - expression that captures the scaling between delta_nu and the - observational parameters across the full red-giant population. Note: - the catalog's seismic-derived M, R, log_g columns are EXCLUDED from the - released inputs to avoid the algebraic identity Δν ∝ M^{1/2} R^{-3/2} - (Yu+2018 Eq. 3 with M, R themselves being inverted scaling relations - of (Δν, ν_max, Teff) via Eqs. 4-6). diff --git a/red_giant_asteroseismology__nu_max/metadata.yaml b/red_giant_asteroseismology__nu_max/metadata.yaml index 231d59f2e2bcb24686acea426ea45562052eb844..9877ec220e0748a32afbdb45bbcfeb73d278652c 100644 --- a/red_giant_asteroseismology__nu_max/metadata.yaml +++ b/red_giant_asteroseismology__nu_max/metadata.yaml @@ -20,10 +20,10 @@ target: Frequency of maximum oscillation power in the stellar p-mode power spectrum, measured by fitting a Gaussian envelope to the Kepler long- cadence power spectrum (Yu+2018 §3.1, SYD pipeline). Median measurement - uncertainty 1.6%. Range 3.97–273.16 μHz in the full catalog. + uncertainty 1.6%. range: - - 3.97 - - 273.16 + train: [3.97, 113.5] + test: [82.15, 273.16] inputs: - name: delta_nu @@ -35,8 +35,8 @@ inputs: p-modes, measured by autocorrelating the power spectrum (Yu+2018 §3.2, SYD pipeline). Measured INDEPENDENTLY of ν_max. Median precision 0.6%. range: - - 0.747 - - 19.294 + train: [0.747, 8.219] + test: [8.223, 19.294] - name: Teff symbol: T_eff @@ -47,8 +47,8 @@ inputs: properties catalog (Mathur+2017), based on photometry and spectroscopy. Independent of seismology. range: - - 3225.0 - - 6356.0 + train: [3225, 6356] + test: [3546, 6088] - name: FeH symbol: "[Fe/H]" @@ -59,8 +59,8 @@ inputs: measurements in the Kepler Q1-17 DR25 stellar properties catalog (Mathur+2017). Independent of seismology. range: - - -2.5 - - 1.0 + train: [-2.44, 1] + test: [-2.5, 0.81] - name: phase symbol: phase @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ inputs: Derived from mixed-mode dipole period spacings (Elsworth+2017 / Vrard+2016) — INDEPENDENT of the global ν_max measurement. range: - - 0 - - 2 + train: [0, 2] + test: [0, 2] # Dataset layout data_files: @@ -184,7 +184,6 @@ caps: max_init_size_per_param: 1 fit_timeout_seconds: null -reference_baseline_id: yu_2018_inverted # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/formulas/reference_metrics.json index b3724aeab229d7a0c34214b34593cd4c12d1f389..881c7f3fba2a593663312b6a7701000d4f48094b 100644 --- a/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -9,18 +9,21 @@ "C_GLOBAL": 3.220265 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": { - "KC_PRE_FACTOR": 0.0083 - }, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 4.357722723937483, "mae": 0.9657677306154027, + "mape": 1.7388576548968555, + "mdae": 0.8884294514642053, "mse": 1.3251550403598107, "n_finite": 22246, "r2": 0.5044257439590003, "rmse": 1.1511537865810157, "smape": 0.8832113232151803 - } + }, + "other_constants": { + "KC_PRE_FACTOR": 0.0083 + }, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md" }, "slichter_1898": { "equation_loc": "Cabalar and Akbulut (2016) Table 4, PDF p.10 \u2014 k = 1e-2 * (g/v) * phi^3.287 * d10^2 (grain-size factor absorbed into C_GLOBAL for d10-unavailable datasets).", @@ -32,18 +35,21 @@ "N_EXPONENT": 3.287 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": { - "SLICHTER_PRE_FACTOR": 0.01 - }, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 4.280536787689917, "mae": 0.9825390045655029, + "mape": 1.780480101095243, + "mdae": 0.9106073658775279, "mse": 1.365634680057859, "n_finite": 22246, "r2": 0.48928738903660496, "rmse": 1.168603730978923, "smape": 0.8874350521832233 - } + }, + "other_constants": { + "SLICHTER_PRE_FACTOR": 0.01 + }, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md" }, "terzaghi_1925": { "equation_loc": "Cabalar and Akbulut (2016) Table 4, PDF p.10 \u2014 k = 0.0084 * (g/v) * [(phi - 0.13) / (1-phi)^(2/3)] * d10^2 (grain-size factor absorbed into C_GLOBAL for d10-unavailable datasets).", @@ -55,18 +61,21 @@ "N_THRESHOLD": 0.13 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": { - "TERZAGHI_PRE_FACTOR": 0.0084 - }, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 21.653332254450856, "mae": 1.3347075929215444, + "mape": 3.424119625327101, + "mdae": 1.1645989345586367, "mse": 2.7709715192908315, "n_finite": 22246, "r2": -0.03627281892275058, "rmse": 1.6646235368066953, "smape": 0.8164437251405788 - } + }, + "other_constants": { + "TERZAGHI_PRE_FACTOR": 0.0084 + }, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_dataset_cabalar_2016.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/metadata.yaml b/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/metadata.yaml index e5f7ca7622ef0455da8c20cc6978ef270f093e36..4e30d7f94370e3e907e7bc3c3de736fc71ae887a 100644 --- a/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/metadata.yaml +++ b/rock_core_permeability_norweg__log_k/metadata.yaml @@ -20,14 +20,18 @@ target: symbol: log₁₀(k) unit: log10(mD) description: Decadic logarithm of the horizontal permeability in millidarcy, measured by steady-state gas permeameter on core plugs. Primary value is the Klinkenberg-corrected permeability (ke); where ke is unavailable (~11% of rows) the uncorrected air permeability (ka) is used as fallback. - range: [-2.523, 4.783] + range: + train: [-2.52288, 4.77815] + test: [-2.52288, 4.78229] inputs: - name: phi symbol: φ unit: "" description: Porosity fraction (dimensionless, 0–1), measured by helium expansion or fluid summation. - range: [0.0001, 0.69] + range: + train: [0.0006, 0.69] + test: [0.0001, 0.6] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout (train.csv + test.csv), stratified random # 70/30 split (stratified by lithology so all 6 rock types appear in both files). diff --git a/running_endurance_iaaf__velocity/metadata.yaml b/running_endurance_iaaf__velocity/metadata.yaml index c646b860c55f4ef185b9d39ab7ed8fc738410da6..eed45cefb5d3795670e24800ccb902816e4441e7 100644 --- a/running_endurance_iaaf__velocity/metadata.yaml +++ b/running_endurance_iaaf__velocity/metadata.yaml @@ -16,14 +16,18 @@ target: symbol: "v̄" unit: m/s description: Average race velocity over the full event distance, computed as race distance divided by the world-record finishing time. - range: [4.17, 10.44] + range: + train: [5.63063, 10.4384] + test: [4.17049, 6.19968] inputs: - name: distance_m symbol: d unit: m description: Official race distance for the event, spanning sprint to ultra-marathon distances. - range: [60.0, 100000.0] + range: + train: [60, 16093.4] + test: [20000, 100000] - name: sex_M symbol: "s_M" unit: "" diff --git a/smbh_mass_sigma_relation__log_M_BH/metadata.yaml b/smbh_mass_sigma_relation__log_M_BH/metadata.yaml index 7dc5519eca150097e6f9a031e07e2608ed7c6a4c..ffc938bb46b527bfc412afcb5545003c4aeeda50 100644 --- a/smbh_mass_sigma_relation__log_M_BH/metadata.yaml +++ b/smbh_mass_sigma_relation__log_M_BH/metadata.yaml @@ -26,21 +26,11 @@ license: "CC-BY-4.0 (Jin & Davis 2023 preprint; factual measurement values addit # All alpha/beta/a/ZP slopes+intercepts kept in LAW (verified vs PDFs). saglia_2016 and # jin_2023_easy have no bare structural number — unchanged. Behavior-preserving: # rmse/r2 identical (re-run evaluate.py reference). caps.max_law_constants unchanged (4). -# Phase-2 note: this task has no `priors:` block yet — OTHER pivots not exposed (deferred). +# Phase-2 note: priors block intentionally empty (priors: []) — OTHER pivots not exposed (deferred). context: >- Supermassive black holes are the extremely massive compact objects residing at the centres of massive galaxies, studied in extragalactic astrophysics. -problem_statement: >- - Predict the base-10 logarithm of the supermassive black hole mass in solar - mass units. The primary predictor is the central stellar velocity dispersion - sigma0 (the classical M-sigma relation); additional leak-free covariates are - the log spheroid stellar mass, the bulge-to-total luminosity ratio, and a - binary pseudobulge indicator. Train and test are drawn by a deterministic - representative split across the full sigma0 range (interleave by sigma0 rank), - so a discovered formula is evaluated in the same dispersion regime in which - the published M-sigma laws were calibrated. - target: name: log_M_BH symbol: log10(M_BH/M_sun) @@ -50,8 +40,8 @@ target: mass, expressed in solar masses. Values from resolved stellar dynamics, ionized-gas kinematics, or megamaser disk kinematics. range: - - 5.74 - - 10.30 + train: [5.74, 10.3] + test: [6.94, 9.94] inputs: - name: sigma0 @@ -64,8 +54,8 @@ inputs: by Jin & Davis (2023). Measured by galaxy spectroscopy, independent of the M_BH dynamical modelling. range: - - 34.59 - - 393.04 + train: [34.59, 393.04] + test: [91.85, 387.24] - name: log_M_sph symbol: log10(M_sph/M_sun) unit: log10(M_sun) @@ -74,8 +64,8 @@ inputs: Base-10 logarithm of the stellar mass of the host spheroid (bulge) component in solar masses, from photometric decomposition. range: - - 8.03 - - 12.36 + train: [8.03, 12.36] + test: [9.67, 11.91] - name: B_T symbol: B/T unit: "" @@ -84,8 +74,8 @@ inputs: Bulge-to-total luminosity ratio of the host galaxy (dimensionless fraction between 0 and 1). range: - - 0.07 - - 1.0 + train: [0.07, 1] + test: [0.07, 1] - name: Pseudobulge symbol: P unit: "" @@ -94,8 +84,8 @@ inputs: Binary morphological indicator: 1 for galaxies hosting a pseudobulge, 0 for classical bulges or elliptical galaxies. range: - - 0.0 - - 1.0 + train: [0, 1] + test: [0, 1] data_files: train: data/train.csv # 99 rows; representative split (sigma0 rank % 5 != 2) @@ -137,6 +127,9 @@ n_test: 25 # # 5. Metric: rmse (the evaluate.py harness computes rmse/mae/mse/smape/r2). +# Candidate prior constants — the `priors` prompt slot. +priors: [] # OTHER pivots deferred (Phase-2); no candidate constants offered yet + references: # measured blocks computed 2026-05-29 by evaluate.py reference on the # representative 99/25 split (n_test=25). All 5 baselines run finite, R^2 > 0. @@ -226,7 +219,6 @@ caps: max_init_size_per_param: 1 fit_timeout_seconds: null -reference_baseline_id: jin_2023_easy # best leak-free baseline on the representative split # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/sne_ia_distance_modulus_pantheonplus__mu/metadata.yaml b/sne_ia_distance_modulus_pantheonplus__mu/metadata.yaml index cc6b9532e902e3f81d4d93e93d61f0bb6c315286..519ab2087d5c5346cc3e8d28cb3f9df58ba5286a 100644 --- a/sne_ia_distance_modulus_pantheonplus__mu/metadata.yaml +++ b/sne_ia_distance_modulus_pantheonplus__mu/metadata.yaml @@ -16,14 +16,18 @@ target: symbol: "μ" unit: mag description: Standardised Type Ia supernova distance modulus — the quantity 5·log₁₀(d_L/10 pc), where d_L is the luminosity distance. Corrected for light-curve shape, colour, and selection bias via the BBC/Tripp method. - range: [28.99, 46.19] + range: + train: [28.9987, 41.7119] + test: [41.3373, 46.1828] inputs: - name: z_hd symbol: z unit: "" description: Hubble-diagram CMB-frame redshift of the host galaxy. - range: [0.00122, 2.26137] + range: + train: [0.00122, 0.39944] + test: [0.4005, 2.26137] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -131,7 +135,6 @@ caps: fit_timeout_seconds: null metric: rmse -reference_baseline_id: linder_2003 # sole baseline; the metric anchor # === Validity rubric === # Frozen list — the scoring-time judge (eval_consistency.py) scores a # submission by how many of THESE criteria it satisfies: diff --git a/solar_flat_plate_collector_graz_efficiency__eta_thermal/metadata.yaml b/solar_flat_plate_collector_graz_efficiency__eta_thermal/metadata.yaml index 5ea75d6aad39a613508130624ea552d4f12cb930..8f29460dd5390e70aff8b22e57c218b586d4b6a6 100644 --- a/solar_flat_plate_collector_graz_efficiency__eta_thermal/metadata.yaml +++ b/solar_flat_plate_collector_graz_efficiency__eta_thermal/metadata.yaml @@ -13,30 +13,40 @@ target: name: eta_thermal symbol: eta unit: "" - description: Gross-area thermal efficiency of the collector array (useful heat / (plane-of-array irradiance x gross area)), dimensionless in (0,1). Observed range 0.45-0.58. Computed from the measured useful heat (mass flow x cp x (T_out - T_in)); the heat-balance quantities are NOT released as inputs. - range: [0.4536, 0.5756] + description: Gross-area thermal efficiency of the collector array (useful heat / (plane-of-array irradiance x gross area)), dimensionless in (0,1). Computed from the measured useful heat (mass flow x cp x (T_out - T_in)); the heat-balance quantities are NOT released as inputs. + range: + train: [0.453551, 0.575591] + test: [0.471592, 0.568139] inputs: - name: G_W_m2 symbol: G unit: W m^-2 description: Global plane-of-array irradiance. HWB input — appears in the reduced temperature (T_in - T_amb)/G. - range: [680.38, 1114.65] + range: + train: [680.383, 1114.65] + test: [724.633, 1032.7] - name: T_in_C symbol: T_in unit: deg C description: Collector inlet fluid temperature. HWB input. - range: [60.30, 74.44] + range: + train: [60.3027, 74.4362] + test: [60.3805, 73.2023] - name: T_amb_C symbol: T_amb unit: deg C description: Ambient air temperature. HWB input (the loss term depends on T_in - T_amb). - range: [9.12, 34.98] + range: + train: [9.12117, 34.9797] + test: [11.029, 33.0007] - name: WS_m_s symbol: WS unit: m s^-1 description: Wind speed at the collector top edge. DISTRACTOR — ISO 9806 has an optional wind-dependent loss extension, but the core HWB law and all three reference baselines ignore wind (only weak residual signal in this data). - range: [0.04, 2.41] + range: + train: [0.0383333, 2.40833] + test: [0.248333, 1.98167] # NOTE: the target is NOT circular. eta is the measured thermal # efficiency = P_thermal / (G * A_gross), where P_thermal = m_dot * cp * diff --git a/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json index 0f3b189e1b2fc1b2f3cb81f49fa3bfc2bb871b3d..a97269918998412aee34da772f66a36b72ab9598 100644 --- a/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -12,16 +12,19 @@ "b3": 0.00010647 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": {}, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_johnson_2023.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.052902314866270256, "mae": 0.3139940939994483, + "mape": 0.1334222576332642, + "mdae": 0.2583749568000011, "mse": 0.16589989801745522, "n_finite": 725, "r2": 0.6286620348802356, "rmse": 0.4073081118974372, "smape": 0.12083350473367767 - } + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_johnson_2023.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/metadata.yaml b/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/metadata.yaml index 3a0cd67de888544862c353ac634bf20e9e4863ac..af0ad6edd8a425a7a92c440fdf50fccdb0e7ca82 100644 --- a/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/metadata.yaml +++ b/spirometry_nhanes__FEV1_L/metadata.yaml @@ -25,7 +25,9 @@ target: symbol: "FEV1" unit: L description: Forced expiratory volume in the first second, directly measured by spirometry (litres). - range: [0.476, 4.765] + range: + train: [0.476, 4.743] + test: [0.711, 4.765] inputs: - name: age @@ -33,13 +35,17 @@ inputs: unit: yr dtype: float description: Age at examination in fractional years. - range: [18.0, 80.0] + range: + train: [18, 80] + test: [18, 79.75] - name: height_cm symbol: h unit: cm dtype: float description: Standing height in centimetres. - range: [135.3, 188.3] + range: + train: [135.3, 188.3] + test: [136.1, 183] # Background knowledge — science framing only; no column listing, no constants. # Empty: no leak-free numeric prior is natural for this task (the b0..b3 diff --git a/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json b/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json index c5ce8029d62a31524ecd3ac22c8cd5d32b55d1c1..9e994e5a59f6317ddb45fa45fc38678cecb38bda 100644 --- a/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json +++ b/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/formulas/reference_metrics.json @@ -12,16 +12,19 @@ "b3": 0.00017278 }, "local_fittable": [], - "other_constants": {}, - "paper_ref": "summary_formula_johnson_2023.md", - "pooled": { + "metrics": { + "log_mae": 0.0391884341880047, "mae": 0.33613056599115376, + "mape": 0.09163941273473025, + "mdae": 0.25211154495000065, "mse": 0.19653115041687477, "n_finite": 260, "r2": 0.8915330356985999, "rmse": 0.4433183398156169, "smape": 0.08999908102906956 - } + }, + "other_constants": {}, + "paper_ref": "summary_formula_johnson_2023.md" } }, "derived_caps": { diff --git a/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/metadata.yaml b/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/metadata.yaml index f2a80f38eba26207c4e2cded8478dcc2fd45df95..cf14ecff1a34b3c3395af02fad2221601def8388 100644 --- a/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/metadata.yaml +++ b/spirometry_nhanes__FVC_L/metadata.yaml @@ -14,7 +14,9 @@ target: symbol: "FVC" unit: L description: Forced vital capacity, directly measured by spirometry (litres). - range: [1.122, 7.205] + range: + train: [1.122, 7.205] + test: [1.413, 7.175] inputs: - name: age @@ -22,13 +24,17 @@ inputs: unit: yr dtype: float description: Age at examination in fractional years. - range: [8.0, 19.75] + range: + train: [8, 19.75] + test: [8, 19.75] - name: height_cm symbol: h unit: cm dtype: float description: Standing height in centimetres. - range: [116.8, 199.5] + range: + train: [117.2, 198.3] + test: [116.8, 199.5] data_files: train: data/train.csv diff --git a/trade_gravity_cepii__log_tradeflow/metadata.yaml b/trade_gravity_cepii__log_tradeflow/metadata.yaml index 32e5b1fd3a9b3ea3dc2d4d8f94e6428028b88435..20a4240443f21e10dfe30141a572fa1916148aa0 100644 --- a/trade_gravity_cepii__log_tradeflow/metadata.yaml +++ b/trade_gravity_cepii__log_tradeflow/metadata.yaml @@ -17,24 +17,32 @@ target: unit: "log(thousands current USD)" description: Natural log of the bilateral export flow from origin to destination country (BACI reconciled trade value, thousands of current USD, FOB-equivalent). - range: [-6.91, 20.04] + range: + train: [-6.90775, 19.8782] + test: [-6.90775, 20.032] inputs: - name: log_gdp_o symbol: "ln Y_i" unit: "log(current USD)" description: Natural log of origin-country GDP in current US dollars. - range: [9.42, 23.79] + range: + train: [9.42021, 23.6448] + test: [10.7192, 23.7854] - name: log_gdp_d symbol: "ln Y_n" unit: "log(current USD)" description: Natural log of destination-country GDP in current US dollars. - range: [9.42, 23.79] + range: + train: [9.42021, 23.6448] + test: [10.7192, 23.7854] - name: log_dist symbol: "ln d_{ij}" unit: "log(km)" description: Natural log of the bilateral population-weighted great-circle distance between most-populated cities. - range: [2.07, 9.90] + range: + train: [2.07944, 9.8944] + test: [2.07944, 9.8944] - name: contig symbol: "c_{ij}" unit: "" @@ -68,6 +76,9 @@ n_test: 109477 # period covers structural disruptions (Brexit, US-China trade war, COVID) that # challenge the stability of gravity calibrations from the pre-disruption era. +# Candidate prior constants — the `priors` prompt slot. +priors: [] # no candidate constants offered for this task + # Reference-baseline bank references: - id: anderson_vanwincoop_2003 diff --git a/traffic_flow_density_ngsim__q_flow/metadata.yaml b/traffic_flow_density_ngsim__q_flow/metadata.yaml index 8d4ca44727e15ca78f8c05fd7d3f69b65d6316af..6d1dcf514f12809291c82b84cf28775e71442ba8 100644 --- a/traffic_flow_density_ngsim__q_flow/metadata.yaml +++ b/traffic_flow_density_ngsim__q_flow/metadata.yaml @@ -13,35 +13,47 @@ target: name: q_veh_h_lane symbol: q unit: veh/h/lane - description: Per-lane traffic flow rate (vehicles per hour per lane), computed as the total vehicle distance travelled in a space-time cell divided by the cell area Δt·Δx (Edie's generalised flow). Range observed on the v2 split [24.82, 3499.45] — the upper bound is roughly the per-lane capacity of a US freeway. - range: [24.82, 3499.45] + description: Per-lane traffic flow rate (vehicles per hour per lane), computed as the total vehicle distance travelled in a space-time cell divided by the cell area Δt·Δx (Edie's generalised flow). The upper bound is roughly the per-lane capacity of a US freeway. + range: + train: [24.8244, 3499.45] + test: [37.53, 3498.37] inputs: - name: k_veh_km_lane symbol: k unit: veh/km/lane description: Per-lane traffic density (vehicles per kilometre per lane), computed as the total vehicle time-in-cell divided by the cell area Δt·Δx (Edie's generalised density). PRIMARY input — the only column the closed-form fundamental-diagram q = Q(k) consumes; all three reference baselines use this input alone. - range: [3.28, 249.45] + range: + train: [3.28084, 249.453] + test: [3.28084, 249.125] - name: corridor symbol: corridor unit: dimensionless description: Integer code for the recording corridor — 0 = US-101 Hollywood, 1 = I-80 Emeryville. DISTRACTOR — different corridors have slightly different empirical FD parameters (Cassidy & Bertini 1999, TR-B 33:25), but the Type I single-pool fit ignores corridor identity. No reference baseline uses this input. - range: [0, 1] + range: + train: [0, 1] + test: [0, 1] - name: lane_id symbol: lane_id unit: dimensionless description: Integer lane number, 1 = leftmost (typically HOV) … 6 = rightmost. DISTRACTOR — lane behavior differs (HOV vs general-purpose) but the q(k) constitutive law is the same. No reference baseline uses this input. - range: [1, 6] + range: + train: [1, 6] + test: [1, 6] - name: t_bin_s symbol: t unit: s description: Start time of the 30-second space-time cell within the NGSIM recording session (each corridor has its own 15-minute recording window, so t resets at zero per corridor — not a wall-clock timestamp). DISTRACTOR — bookkeeping, not cross-corridor comparable. No reference baseline uses this input. - range: [0.0, 1140.0] + range: + train: [0, 1140] + test: [0, 1140] - name: x_bin_ft symbol: x unit: ft description: Midpoint of the 100-ft spatial bin along the corridor (50 ft = upstream edge, 2150 ft = downstream edge). DISTRACTOR — encodes proximity to known bottlenecks (e.g. I-80's Powell St on-ramp ≈ x ≈ 1300 ft) but the closed-form FD is location-independent. No reference baseline uses this input. - range: [50.0, 2150.0] + range: + train: [50, 2150] + test: [50, 2150] # NOTE: the v1 sibling task released seven columns # (q, k, v_km_h, corridor, lane_id, t_bin_s, x_bin_ft, n_frames). diff --git a/tree_biomass_allometry_chave__agb/metadata.yaml b/tree_biomass_allometry_chave__agb/metadata.yaml index 17dabc0e92e892c4e64cfd71e20798b426124225..b9cabb3cf19c68f9f9072f297e0d6736e7ca8632 100644 --- a/tree_biomass_allometry_chave__agb/metadata.yaml +++ b/tree_biomass_allometry_chave__agb/metadata.yaml @@ -18,24 +18,32 @@ target: symbol: AGB unit: kg description: Oven-dry total aboveground biomass of an individual tropical tree, measured by destructive harvesting. - range: [1.23, 76063.52] + range: + train: [1.23, 1673.27] + test: [17.38, 76063.5] inputs: - name: wood_density symbol: rho unit: g/cm^3 description: Wood specific gravity — ratio of dry wood mass to fresh wood volume, a proxy for material density. - range: [0.09, 1.2] + range: + train: [0.09, 1.2] + test: [0.1, 1] - name: diameter_cm symbol: D unit: cm description: Trunk diameter at breast height (1.3 m above ground), the primary structural size predictor. - range: [5.0, 212.0] + range: + train: [5, 28.5] + test: [28.6, 212] - name: height_m symbol: H unit: m description: Total tree height from base to the highest living branch. - range: [1.2, 70.7] + range: + train: [1.2, 33.5] + test: [4.9, 70.7] # Dataset — Type I two-file layout data_files: @@ -124,8 +132,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 2410.8807 - r2: 0.8808 + log_mae: 0.109234 + r2: 0.880771 - id: chave_2014_eq5 label: Chave et al. 2014 — constrained Eq. (5), linear in rho*D^2*H (alpha=1) formula_file: formulas/chave_2014_eq5.py @@ -134,8 +142,8 @@ references: n_other_constants: 0 n_local_params: 0 measured: - rmse: 2376.6452 - r2: 0.8841 + log_mae: 0.117023 + r2: 0.884133 caps: max_law_constants: 2 diff --git a/ttauri_accretion__L_acc/metadata.yaml b/ttauri_accretion__L_acc/metadata.yaml index 34efd86d4e7012ff513d1e8d5a4f998bd7678dc6..71881bde392b0dd114c549ee5cd629f9f7cd49bc 100644 --- a/ttauri_accretion__L_acc/metadata.yaml +++ b/ttauri_accretion__L_acc/metadata.yaml @@ -16,29 +16,39 @@ target: symbol: log(L_acc/L_sun) unit: log10(L_sun) description: Log base-10 accretion luminosity of a pre-main-sequence T Tauri star, derived from UV-excess slab modelling of the Balmer continuum excess. - range: [-5.3, 0.62] + range: + train: [-5.3, 0.62] + test: [-5.2, -0.3] inputs: - name: logL_star symbol: log(L_star/L_sun) unit: log10(L_sun) description: Log base-10 stellar bolometric luminosity, derived from flux-calibrated X-shooter spectra and BT-Settl SED integration. - range: [-2.5229, 0.71] + range: + train: [-2, 0.7076] + test: [-2.5229, 0.71] - name: M_star_B98 symbol: M_star unit: M_sun description: Stellar mass derived from pre-main-sequence evolutionary tracks using the HR-diagram position. - range: [0.03, 2.08] + range: + train: [0.07, 2.08] + test: [0.03, 1.4] - name: R_star symbol: R_star unit: R_sun description: Stellar radius derived from stellar luminosity and effective temperature via the Stefan-Boltzmann relation. - range: [0.17, 3.2] + range: + train: [0.356, 2.881] + test: [0.17, 3.2] - name: Teff_K symbol: T_eff unit: K description: Stellar effective temperature determined from spectral template matching against a library of class III (non-accreting) young stellar spectra. - range: [2600, 5110] + range: + train: [2935, 5110] + test: [2600, 5100] # FM-H3 backfill (wave-11, 2026-05-26): empty priors block added for schema symmetry with GOLD. priors: [] diff --git a/volcanic_column_mer_ivespa__H_top/metadata.yaml b/volcanic_column_mer_ivespa__H_top/metadata.yaml index 432baee29d3ba4cc1f554f84a81189c5f7984a50..0138cdcd91931962777c4396b550debfed1b05d8 100644 --- a/volcanic_column_mer_ivespa__H_top/metadata.yaml +++ b/volcanic_column_mer_ivespa__H_top/metadata.yaml @@ -13,15 +13,19 @@ target: name: H_top_km_avl symbol: H_top unit: km - description: Time-averaged eruption-column top height in km above vent level (Tephra Plume Top a.s.l. minus vent altitude). Spans 0.58-36 km; the declared metric is log_mae (the relationship is a power law with multiplicative ~53% scatter, so log-space error is natural; H_top is strictly positive). - range: [0.58, 36.42] + description: Time-averaged eruption-column top height in km above vent level (Tephra Plume Top a.s.l. minus vent altitude). The declared metric is log_mae (the relationship is a power law with multiplicative ~53% scatter, so log-space error is natural; H_top is strictly positive). + range: + train: [0.585, 17.25] + test: [5.392, 36.415] inputs: - name: MER_kg_per_s symbol: MER unit: kg s^-1 - description: Time-averaged mass eruption rate (total erupted mass / event duration), kg/s. PRIMARY (and only) physical driver of column height in the buoyant-plume scaling; spans ~2e1 to 2e8 kg/s (seven orders of magnitude). Computed from independently-measured deposit mass and event duration, NOT inverted from plume height. - range: [19.39, 2.34e08] + description: Time-averaged mass eruption rate (total erupted mass / event duration), kg/s. PRIMARY (and only) physical driver of column height in the buoyant-plume scaling, spanning seven orders of magnitude. Computed from independently-measured deposit mass and event duration, NOT inverted from plume height. + range: + train: [19.3889, 5.55556e+06] + test: [5.55556e+06, 2.33918e+08] # NOTE: the target is NOT circular. H_top (plume-top altitude, observed # by radar/satellite) and MER (= total erupted mass from deposit mapping diff --git a/wind_turbine_power_curve_engie__power_kW/metadata.yaml b/wind_turbine_power_curve_engie__power_kW/metadata.yaml index ac8167fc98e69eb68960d4e48ae82a20a3f24b8b..65773149c362d746b89321f270e6143dfc6045a8 100644 --- a/wind_turbine_power_curve_engie__power_kW/metadata.yaml +++ b/wind_turbine_power_curve_engie__power_kW/metadata.yaml @@ -14,14 +14,18 @@ target: symbol: P unit: kW description: 10-minute-averaged active electrical power output of the wind turbine. - range: [0.0, 2051.87] + range: + train: [0, 1376.32] + test: [0, 2051.87] inputs: - name: wind_speed_mps symbol: v unit: m/s description: 10-minute-averaged wind speed at hub height, measured by the turbine's nacelle anemometer. - range: [0.0, 19.31] + range: + train: [4.69, 7.48] + test: [0, 19.31] # Dataset — Type I, two-file flat layout. Source: ENGIE La Haute Borne # 2014-2015 SCADA archive (data_raw/la-haute-borne-data-2014-2015.csv,