"""eval_formula.py — the shared evaluation core. Runs ONE formula module over the test set and returns raw metrics, both per-cluster and pooled. This is the common engine called by evaluate.py (on each reference baseline and on a submitted formula.py). A formula module must expose the v2 contract: USED_INPUTS, LAW_CONSTANTS, OTHER_CONSTANTS, LOCAL_FITTABLE, predict(X, **params) and (Type II) fit(X_fit, y_fit, **law_constants). `run_formula` performs NO score normalisation and NO judging — it only executes the formula and measures error. The reference-relative score and the judge channels live in evaluate.py. """ from __future__ import annotations import csv import random import signal import time from pathlib import Path import numpy as np # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # data loading # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def load_csv(path: Path) -> tuple[list[str], list[list[str]]]: with path.open("r", newline="") as fh: reader = csv.reader(fh) header = next(reader) rows = [list(r) for r in reader] return header, rows def group_by_cluster(header: list[str], rows: list[list[str]]) -> dict[int, list[list[str]]]: gid = header.index("group_id") out: dict[int, list[list[str]]] = {} for r in rows: out.setdefault(int(float(r[gid])), []).append(r) return out def load_clusters(task_root: Path) -> dict: """Type II loader. Load test_fit.csv + test_test.csv, grouped by cluster. Returns a dict with: fit_header, test_header, fit_by_cluster, test_by_cluster, cluster_ids (sorted, present in both). """ fit_header, fit_rows = load_csv(task_root / "data" / "test_fit.csv") test_header, test_rows = load_csv(task_root / "data" / "test_test.csv") fit_by_cluster = group_by_cluster(fit_header, fit_rows) test_by_cluster = group_by_cluster(test_header, test_rows) cluster_ids = sorted(set(fit_by_cluster) & set(test_by_cluster)) return { "fit_header": fit_header, "test_header": test_header, "fit_by_cluster": fit_by_cluster, "test_by_cluster": test_by_cluster, "cluster_ids": cluster_ids, } def load_flat(task_root: Path) -> dict: """Type I loader. Load train.csv + test.csv as flat tables (no clusters). The reference / submission formulas predict directly on test.csv. train.csv is carried for completeness (the SR system trains on it) but the v2 score does not use it — there is no naive baseline. """ train_header, train_rows = load_csv(task_root / "data" / "train.csv") test_header, test_rows = load_csv(task_root / "data" / "test.csv") return { "train_header": train_header, "train_rows": train_rows, "test_header": test_header, "test_rows": test_rows, } # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # helpers # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _to_array(rows: list[list[str]], header: list[str], cols: list[str]) -> np.ndarray: idx = [header.index(c) for c in cols] return np.array([[float(row[i]) for i in idx] for row in rows], dtype=float) def _col(rows: list[list[str]], header: list[str], name: str) -> np.ndarray: i = header.index(name) return np.array([float(r[i]) for r in rows], dtype=float) def metrics(y_true: np.ndarray, y_pred: np.ndarray) -> dict: """Full metric menu so any task-declared `metric` can be selected later.""" y_true = np.asarray(y_true, dtype=float) y_pred = np.asarray(y_pred, dtype=float) mask = np.isfinite(y_pred) & np.isfinite(y_true) n = int(mask.sum()) if n == 0: return {"rmse": None, "mae": None, "mse": None, "r2": None, "smape": None, "n_finite": 0} yt, yp = y_true[mask], y_pred[mask] err = yp - yt mse = float(np.mean(err ** 2)) rmse = float(np.sqrt(mse)) mae = float(np.mean(np.abs(err))) ss_tot = float(np.sum((yt - yt.mean()) ** 2)) r2 = float(1.0 - float(np.sum(err ** 2)) / ss_tot) if ss_tot > 0 else None denom = (np.abs(yt) + np.abs(yp)) / 2.0 safe = denom > 0 smape = (float(np.mean(np.where(safe, np.abs(err) / np.where(safe, denom, 1.0), 0.0))) if safe.any() else None) return {"rmse": rmse, "mae": mae, "mse": mse, "r2": r2, "smape": smape, "n_finite": n} class _Timeout(Exception): pass def _timeout_handler(signum, frame): # noqa: ARG001 raise _Timeout() # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # core # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def run_formula(mod, clusters: dict, target_name: str, fit_timeout_seconds: int | None = None, seed: int | None = None) -> dict: """Execute one formula module over every test cluster. `seed`, if given, fixes the global NumPy / Python RNG before the run so a stochastic submission `fit()` is reproducible. evaluate.py runs each Type II submission under several seeds and reports mean / std. Returns: { "per_cluster": {cid: {"metrics": {...}, "failed": bool, "error": str|None}}, "pooled": {...metrics over all clusters' test rows...}, "n_clusters_fitted": int, "n_clusters_failed": int, "max_fit_seconds": float, # slowest per-cluster fit() wall-time } A cluster is `failed` if fit() raises / times out, or predict() returns non-finite. Failed clusters are excluded from the pooled metric here; the reference-relative score for failed clusters is evaluate.py's job. `max_fit_seconds` lets evaluate.py derive the fit_timeout cap from the reference bank's measured fit cost. """ fit_header = clusters["fit_header"] test_header = clusters["test_header"] fit_by_cluster = clusters["fit_by_cluster"] test_by_cluster = clusters["test_by_cluster"] cluster_ids = clusters["cluster_ids"] if seed is not None: np.random.seed(seed) random.seed(seed) used = list(mod.USED_INPUTS) LAW = dict(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS) is_type_ii = bool(mod.LOCAL_FITTABLE) per_cluster: dict[int, dict] = {} pooled_pred, pooled_true = [], [] n_failed = 0 max_fit_seconds = 0.0 for cid in cluster_ids: fr = fit_by_cluster[cid] tr = test_by_cluster[cid] try: if used: X_fit = _to_array(fr, fit_header, used) X_test = _to_array(tr, test_header, used) else: X_fit = np.zeros((len(fr), 0), dtype=float) X_test = np.zeros((len(tr), 0), dtype=float) y_fit = _col(fr, fit_header, target_name) y_test = _col(tr, test_header, target_name) if is_type_ii: if fit_timeout_seconds: signal.signal(signal.SIGALRM, _timeout_handler) signal.alarm(int(fit_timeout_seconds)) t0 = time.perf_counter() try: local = mod.fit(X_fit, y_fit, **LAW) finally: if fit_timeout_seconds: signal.alarm(0) max_fit_seconds = max(max_fit_seconds, time.perf_counter() - t0) else: local = {} y_pred = np.asarray(mod.predict(X_test, **LAW, **local), dtype=float) if not np.all(np.isfinite(y_pred)): raise RuntimeError("predict returned non-finite values") m = metrics(y_test, y_pred) per_cluster[cid] = {"metrics": m, "failed": False, "error": None} pooled_pred.append(y_pred) pooled_true.append(y_test) except _Timeout: n_failed += 1 per_cluster[cid] = {"metrics": None, "failed": True, "error": f"fit() exceeded {fit_timeout_seconds}s"} except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 n_failed += 1 per_cluster[cid] = {"metrics": None, "failed": True, "error": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"} pooled = (metrics(np.concatenate(pooled_true), np.concatenate(pooled_pred)) if pooled_pred else None) return { "per_cluster": per_cluster, "pooled": pooled, "n_clusters_fitted": len(cluster_ids) - n_failed, "n_clusters_failed": n_failed, "max_fit_seconds": max_fit_seconds, } # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # core — Type I (flat, no clusters, no fit) # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def run_formula_flat(mod, flat: dict, target_name: str) -> dict: """Execute one Type I formula on the flat test set. Type I: LOCAL_FITTABLE is empty, there is no fit() — predict() is called once on the whole test set with only LAW_CONSTANTS. Returns: {"pooled": {...metrics...} | None, "failed": bool, "error": str|None} """ test_header = flat["test_header"] test_rows = flat["test_rows"] used = list(mod.USED_INPUTS) LAW = dict(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS) try: X_test = (_to_array(test_rows, test_header, used) if used else np.zeros((len(test_rows), 0), dtype=float)) y_test = _col(test_rows, test_header, target_name) y_pred = np.asarray(mod.predict(X_test, **LAW), dtype=float) if not np.all(np.isfinite(y_pred)): raise RuntimeError("predict returned non-finite values") return {"pooled": metrics(y_test, y_pred), "failed": False, "error": None} except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 return {"pooled": None, "failed": True, "error": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"}