"""evaluate.py — the integrated v2 scoring driver. The harness has just two files: eval_formula.py — the execution core (run one formula -> raw metrics) evaluate.py — this file: everything built on top of that core. Two modes: reference Run the task's reference bank + naive predictor through eval_formula, write formulas/reference_metrics.json (the skill-normalisation anchors, stored alongside the reference formulas they measure). A task-setup step — run once. score [submission.py] Run a submission through eval_formula, then the scoring layers: contract check -> skill normalisation vs the anchors -> LLM-judge (stubbed) -> weighted-sum total. With no submission path: self-test — score each reference baseline as if it were a submission (reference_baseline_id should land skill ~ 1). Usage: python harness/evaluation/evaluate.py reference python harness/evaluation/evaluate.py score [submission.py] """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import importlib import importlib.util import inspect import json import sys from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import yaml HARNESS_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent sys.path.insert(0, str(HARNESS_DIR)) from eval_formula import ( # noqa: E402 load_clusters, load_flat, run_formula, run_formula_flat, ) # A cluster is non-discriminative (excluded) if the best reference baseline is # itself (near-)perfect on it — the score ratio sub/ref then blows up. REF_EPS = 1e-4 # Metric direction. "perfect" = 0 for lower-is-better, = 1 for r2. LOWER_IS_BETTER = {"rmse", "mae", "mse", "smape", "mdape", "log_mae", "nrmse_iqr"} # A Type II submission's fit() may be stochastic. The harness runs it under # N_SEEDS fixed seeds and reports mean / std of numeric_score (Scheme B). # A deterministic fit() gives identical runs → std 0. Type I has no fit() and # is run once. BASE_SEED is fixed and documented for reproducibility. BASE_SEED = 20260514 N_SEEDS = 3 def _is_higher_better(metric: str) -> bool: return metric == "r2" # ========================================================================== # shared helpers # ========================================================================== def load_task(task_dir: Path) -> dict: if not (task_dir / "metadata.yaml").exists(): raise SystemExit(f"no metadata.yaml under {task_dir}") return yaml.safe_load((task_dir / "metadata.yaml").open()) def load_task_registry(task_dir: Path) -> dict: """Import the task's `formulas` package, return its REGISTRY dict.""" sys.path.insert(0, str(task_dir)) import formulas # noqa: PLC0415 (task-local package via sys.path) importlib.reload(formulas) return formulas.REGISTRY def load_submission(path: Path): spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(f"_submission_{path.stem}", path) mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) spec.loader.exec_module(mod) return mod # ========================================================================== # mode: reference — build the skill-normalisation anchors # ========================================================================== def _ref_entry(mod, extra: dict) -> dict: """Common metadata block for a reference baseline entry.""" return { "kind": "reference", "paper_ref": getattr(mod, "PAPER_REF", None), "equation_loc": getattr(mod, "EQUATION_LOC", None), "law_constants": {k: float(v) for k, v in mod.LAW_CONSTANTS.items()}, "other_constants": {k: float(v) for k, v in mod.OTHER_CONSTANTS.items()}, "local_fittable": sorted(mod.LOCAL_FITTABLE.keys()), **extra, } # Anti-dump caps are derived from the reference bank (§7.6). Static caps = # the most any reference paper itself uses. fit_timeout = the slowest # measured reference fit × a safety factor (the factor absorbs machine # timing variance — the cap only needs to catch order-of-magnitude abuse). FIT_TIMEOUT_FACTOR = 10 FIT_TIMEOUT_FLOOR = 10 # seconds def derive_caps(registry: dict, max_ref_fit_seconds: float, task_type: str) -> dict: """Derive the anti-dump caps from the reference bank. A submission may be as complex as the most complex published formula — no more. All four caps come from the bank, not from a task author. """ law_counts = [len(m.LAW_CONSTANTS) for m in registry.values()] local_counts = [len(m.LOCAL_FITTABLE) for m in registry.values()] init_sizes = [1] for m in registry.values(): for spec in m.LOCAL_FITTABLE.values(): init = spec.get("init") if isinstance(spec, dict) else None init_sizes.append(len(init) if isinstance(init, (list, tuple)) else 1) caps = { "max_law_constants": max(law_counts) if law_counts else 0, "max_local_params": max(local_counts) if local_counts else 0, "max_init_size_per_param": max(init_sizes), } if task_type == "typeI": caps["fit_timeout_seconds"] = None # Type I has no fit() else: caps["fit_timeout_seconds"] = max( FIT_TIMEOUT_FLOOR, int(np.ceil(max_ref_fit_seconds * FIT_TIMEOUT_FACTOR)), ) return caps def mode_reference(task_dir: Path) -> int: meta = load_task(task_dir) task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII") target_name = meta["target"]["name"] registry = load_task_registry(task_dir) baselines: dict[str, dict] = {} max_ref_fit_seconds = 0.0 if task_type == "typeI": flat = load_flat(task_dir) print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] Type I — {len(flat['test_rows'])} flat test rows.", flush=True) for stem in sorted(registry): mod = registry[stem] res = run_formula_flat(mod, flat, target_name) baselines[stem] = _ref_entry(mod, { "failed": res["failed"], "error": res["error"], "pooled": res["pooled"], }) n_units = len(flat["test_rows"]) else: clusters = load_clusters(task_dir) n_units = len(clusters["cluster_ids"]) print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] Type II — {n_units} test clusters.", flush=True) for stem in sorted(registry): mod = registry[stem] # References run UNtimed — we measure them to derive the cap. # seed=BASE_SEED: reference formulas are deterministic, but fixing # the seed makes even a stochastic reference reproducible. res = run_formula(mod, clusters, target_name, fit_timeout_seconds=None, seed=BASE_SEED) max_ref_fit_seconds = max(max_ref_fit_seconds, res.get("max_fit_seconds", 0.0)) baselines[stem] = _ref_entry(mod, { "n_clusters_fitted": res["n_clusters_fitted"], "n_clusters_failed": res["n_clusters_failed"], "max_fit_seconds": res.get("max_fit_seconds", 0.0), "pooled": res["pooled"], "per_cluster": {str(c): v["metrics"] for c, v in res["per_cluster"].items()}, }) caps = derive_caps(registry, max_ref_fit_seconds, task_type) out = { "task": meta["task_id"], "type": task_type, "metric_declared": meta.get("metric"), "reference_baseline_id": meta.get("reference_baseline_id"), ("n_test_rows" if task_type == "typeI" else "n_clusters"): n_units, "derived_caps": caps, "baselines": dict(sorted(baselines.items())), } out_path = task_dir / "formulas" / "reference_metrics.json" with out_path.open("w") as fh: json.dump(out, fh, indent=2, sort_keys=True) fh.write("\n") print(f"[reference] wrote {out_path}") print(f" derived caps: {caps}") metric = meta.get("metric", "rmse") print(f"\n {'baseline':<26} pooled-{metric} pooled-R2") for name, b in out["baselines"].items(): p = b["pooled"] if p is None: print(f" {name:<26} FAILED: {b.get('error')}") else: print(f" {name:<26} {p[metric]:>10.4f} {p['r2']:>8.4f}") return 0 # ========================================================================== # mode: score — scoring layers on top of eval_formula # ========================================================================== def validate_contract(mod, caps: dict) -> list[str]: """Return contract violations (empty list = passes). `caps` is the `derived_caps` block from reference_metrics.json — the anti-dump caps derived from the reference bank (§7.6). """ errs: list[str] = [] for field in ("USED_INPUTS", "LAW_CONSTANTS", "OTHER_CONSTANTS", "LOCAL_FITTABLE"): if not hasattr(mod, field): errs.append(f"missing required field: {field}") if errs: return errs local = mod.LOCAL_FITTABLE is_type_ii = bool(local) if not hasattr(mod, "predict"): errs.append("missing predict()") else: if "group_id" in inspect.signature(mod.predict).parameters: errs.append("predict() signature contains 'group_id' (forbidden — anti-dump)") if is_type_ii and not hasattr(mod, "fit"): errs.append("LOCAL_FITTABLE non-empty but fit() missing (Type II requires fit())") if not is_type_ii and hasattr(mod, "fit"): errs.append("LOCAL_FITTABLE empty but fit() present (Type I must not define fit())") cap_law = caps.get("max_law_constants") if cap_law is not None and len(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS) > cap_law: errs.append(f"len(LAW_CONSTANTS)={len(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS)} exceeds " f"max_law_constants={cap_law}") cap_local = caps.get("max_local_params") if cap_local is not None and len(local) > cap_local: errs.append(f"len(LOCAL_FITTABLE)={len(local)} exceeds max_local_params={cap_local}") cap_init = caps.get("max_init_size_per_param") if cap_init is not None: for name, spec in local.items(): init = spec.get("init") if isinstance(spec, dict) else None if isinstance(init, (list, tuple)) and len(init) > cap_init: errs.append(f"LOCAL_FITTABLE['{name}']['init'] length {len(init)} " f"exceeds max_init_size_per_param={cap_init}") return errs def _score_one_cluster(sub_v: float, ref_v: float, metric: str) -> float: """Reference-relative score for one cluster (or the flat Type I test set). Lower-is-better metric: score = 1 - 0.5 * sub / ref Higher-is-better (r2): score = 0.5 + 0.5 * (sub - ref) / (1 - ref) Clipped to [0, 1]. ref -> 0.5, perfect -> 1.0. """ if _is_higher_better(metric): score = 0.5 + 0.5 * (sub_v - ref_v) / (1.0 - ref_v) else: score = 1.0 - 0.5 * sub_v / ref_v return float(np.clip(score, 0.0, 1.0)) def _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v: float, metric: str) -> bool: """True if the reference is itself (near-)perfect on this unit → exclude.""" if _is_higher_better(metric): return abs(1.0 - ref_v) <= REF_EPS return abs(ref_v) <= REF_EPS def _best_reference(ref_metrics: dict, metric: str) -> tuple[str | None, str]: """Pick the best reference baseline in the bank. Type II: best = argmin/argmax of the mean per-cluster metric. Type I: best = argmin/argmax of the pooled metric. `reference_baseline_id` in metadata is only a label; the anchor is the empirically best baseline so the 0.5 mark is always the strongest paper. """ higher = _is_higher_better(metric) cand: dict[str, float] = {} for name, b in ref_metrics["baselines"].items(): if b.get("kind") != "reference": continue pc = b.get("per_cluster") if pc: # Type II vals = [m[metric] for m in pc.values() if m and m.get(metric) is not None] if vals: cand[name] = float(np.mean(vals)) elif b.get("pooled") and b["pooled"].get(metric) is not None: # Type I cand[name] = float(b["pooled"][metric]) if not cand: return None, "no reference baseline produced a finite metric" best = max(cand, key=cand.get) if higher else min(cand, key=cand.get) return best, "" def compute_numeric_score(sub_result: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict) -> dict: """Type II reference-relative score: per-cluster score, equal-weight mean. score_N = clip(1 - 0.5 * sub_N / ref_N, 0, 1) [lower-is-better] where ref_N is the per-cluster metric of the BEST reference baseline. Failed cluster -> score_N = 0. Cluster where the reference is itself (near-)perfect is excluded (non-discriminative). """ metric = meta.get("metric", "rmse") best_id, why = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric) if best_id is None: return {"metric": metric, "numeric_score": None, "note": why} ref_pc = ref_metrics["baselines"][best_id]["per_cluster"] per_cluster_score: dict[str, float] = {} excluded: list[str] = [] for cid_str, ref_m in ref_pc.items(): if ref_m is None or ref_m.get(metric) is None: excluded.append(cid_str) continue ref_v = ref_m[metric] if _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v, metric): excluded.append(cid_str) continue sub_pc = sub_result["per_cluster"].get(int(cid_str)) if sub_pc is None or sub_pc["failed"] or sub_pc["metrics"] is None: score = 0.0 else: score = _score_one_cluster(sub_pc["metrics"][metric], ref_v, metric) per_cluster_score[cid_str] = score numeric_score = (float(np.mean(list(per_cluster_score.values()))) if per_cluster_score else None) return { "metric": metric, "best_reference_id": best_id, "n_clusters_scored": len(per_cluster_score), "n_clusters_excluded_nondiscriminative": len(excluded), "per_cluster_score": per_cluster_score, "numeric_score": numeric_score, } def compute_numeric_score_flat(sub_result: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict) -> dict: """Type I reference-relative score — one number (no clusters). score = clip(1 - 0.5 * sub / ref, 0, 1) on the pooled flat test set. Submission failed -> score = 0. Reference (near-)perfect -> score None (task degenerate for scoring). """ metric = meta.get("metric", "rmse") best_id, why = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric) if best_id is None: return {"metric": metric, "numeric_score": None, "note": why} ref_v = ref_metrics["baselines"][best_id]["pooled"][metric] if _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v, metric): numeric_score = None # reference already perfect elif sub_result["failed"] or sub_result["pooled"] is None: numeric_score = 0.0 else: numeric_score = _score_one_cluster(sub_result["pooled"][metric], ref_v, metric) return { "metric": metric, "best_reference_id": best_id, "numeric_score": numeric_score, } def judge_stub(mod) -> dict: """Placeholder for the LLM-judge channels (constant_score, form_score). Not yet wired to a judge API — returns None so `total` falls back to the numeric channel only. """ return {"constant_score": None, "form_score": None, "note": "LLM judge not wired — constant/form channels pending"} def score_one(mod, label: str, data: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict) -> dict: """Score one formula. `data` is a flat dict (Type I) or clusters dict (Type II).""" caps = ref_metrics.get("derived_caps", {}) errs = validate_contract(mod, caps) if errs: return {"submission": label, "contract_ok": False, "violations": errs, "total": None} task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII") target_name = meta["target"]["name"] if task_type == "typeI": # Type I — no fit(), deterministic: a single run. sub_result = run_formula_flat(mod, data, target_name) score = compute_numeric_score_flat(sub_result, ref_metrics, meta) numeric_per_seed = [score["numeric_score"]] exec_info = {"failed": sub_result["failed"], "error": sub_result["error"], "n_seeds": 1} else: # Type II — fit() may be stochastic: run N_SEEDS fixed seeds (Scheme B), # report mean / std of numeric_score. A deterministic fit() → std 0. sub_result = None score = None numeric_per_seed = [] for k in range(N_SEEDS): sr = run_formula(mod, data, target_name, fit_timeout_seconds=caps.get("fit_timeout_seconds"), seed=BASE_SEED + k) sc = compute_numeric_score(sr, ref_metrics, meta) numeric_per_seed.append(sc["numeric_score"]) if sub_result is None: sub_result, score = sr, sc # detail reported from the first seed exec_info = {"n_clusters_fitted": sub_result["n_clusters_fitted"], "n_clusters_failed": sub_result["n_clusters_failed"], "n_seeds": N_SEEDS} judge = judge_stub(mod) if any(v is None for v in numeric_per_seed): numeric, numeric_std = None, None else: numeric = float(np.mean(numeric_per_seed)) numeric_std = float(np.std(numeric_per_seed)) if numeric is None: total, total_note = None, "numeric score undefined (reference degenerate for scoring)" elif judge["constant_score"] is None or judge["form_score"] is None: total, total_note = numeric, "numeric channel only (judge pending)" else: total = 0.6 * numeric + 0.2 * judge["constant_score"] + 0.2 * judge["form_score"] total_note = "0.6 numeric + 0.2 constant + 0.2 form" return { "submission": label, "contract_ok": True, **exec_info, "pooled": sub_result["pooled"], "score": score, "numeric_score": numeric, "numeric_score_std": numeric_std, "numeric_score_per_seed": numeric_per_seed, "judge": judge, "total": total, "total_note": total_note, } def mode_score(task_dir: Path, submission: Path | None) -> int: meta = load_task(task_dir) task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII") ref_path = task_dir / "formulas" / "reference_metrics.json" if not ref_path.exists(): raise SystemExit(f"{ref_path} missing — run `evaluate.py reference {task_dir}` first.") ref_metrics = json.load(ref_path.open()) data = load_flat(task_dir) if task_type == "typeI" else load_clusters(task_dir) if submission is not None: mod = load_submission(submission.resolve()) result = score_one(mod, submission.name, data, ref_metrics, meta) print(json.dumps(result, indent=2, sort_keys=True)) return 0 # Self-test: score each reference baseline as a submission. registry = load_task_registry(task_dir) metric = meta.get("metric", "rmse") print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] ({task_type}) self-test — each reference baseline " f"scored as a submission:\n") print(f" {'submission':<26} {'pooled-' + metric:>13} {'numeric':>9} {'±std':>8} {'total':>8}") for stem in sorted(registry): result = score_one(registry[stem], stem, data, ref_metrics, meta) if not result["contract_ok"]: print(f" {stem:<26} CONTRACT FAIL: {result['violations']}") continue p = result["pooled"] pv = f"{p[metric]:>13.4f}" if p else f"{'FAILED':>13}" ns = result["numeric_score"] ns_s = f"{ns:>9.4f}" if ns is not None else f"{'—':>9}" sd = result["numeric_score_std"] sd_s = f"{sd:>8.4f}" if sd is not None else f"{'—':>8}" tt = result["total"] tt_s = f"{tt:>8.4f}" if tt is not None else f"{'—':>8}" print(f" {stem:<26} {pv} {ns_s} {sd_s} {tt_s}") best_id, _ = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric) print(f"\n (best reference baseline = {best_id} → expect its numeric ≈ 0.5)") return 0 # ========================================================================== # CLI # ========================================================================== def main() -> int: ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="v2 benchmark evaluation harness") sub = ap.add_subparsers(dest="mode", required=True) p_ref = sub.add_parser("reference", help="build reference anchors for a task") p_ref.add_argument("task_dir", type=Path) p_sc = sub.add_parser("score", help="score a submission (or self-test)") p_sc.add_argument("task_dir", type=Path) p_sc.add_argument("submission", type=Path, nargs="?", default=None) args = ap.parse_args() if args.mode == "reference": return mode_reference(args.task_dir.resolve()) return mode_score(args.task_dir.resolve(), args.submission) if __name__ == "__main__": raise SystemExit(main())