benchmark_v3 / harness /evaluate_numeric.py
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"""evaluate_numeric.py — the deterministic numeric scoring driver.
The harness has just two files:
eval_formula.py — the execution core (run one formula -> raw metrics)
evaluate_numeric.py — this file: everything built on top of that core.
Two modes:
reference <task_dir>
Run the task's reference bank + naive predictor through eval_formula,
write formulas/reference_metrics.json (the skill-normalisation anchors,
stored alongside the reference formulas they measure).
A task-setup step — run once.
score <task_dir> [submission.py]
Run a submission and report numeric_score: deterministic,
reference-relative test-set performance.
With no submission path: self-test — score each reference baseline as
if it were a submission (the best baseline should land numeric ≈ 0.5).
Usage:
python harness/evaluate_numeric.py reference <task_dir>
python harness/evaluate_numeric.py score <task_dir> [submission.py]
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import importlib
import importlib.util
import inspect
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import yaml
HARNESS_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
sys.path.insert(0, str(HARNESS_DIR))
from eval_formula import ( # noqa: E402
METRICS, load_clusters, load_flat, run_formula, run_formula_flat,
)
# validity_score is intentionally not part of this numeric scorer. It is
# produced separately by the Claude-Code judge described in VALIDITY_JUDGE.md.
# A cluster is non-discriminative (excluded) if the best reference baseline is
# itself (near-)perfect on it — the score ratio sub/ref then blows up.
REF_EPS = 1e-4
# A Type II submission's fit() may be stochastic. The harness runs it under
# N_SEEDS fixed seeds and reports mean / std of numeric_score (Scheme B).
# A deterministic fit() gives identical runs → std 0. Type I has no fit() and
# is run once. BASE_SEED is fixed and documented for reproducibility.
BASE_SEED = 20260514
N_SEEDS = 3
def _is_higher_better(metric: str) -> bool:
return METRICS[metric]["direction"] == "higher"
# ==========================================================================
# shared helpers
# ==========================================================================
def load_task(task_dir: Path) -> dict:
if not (task_dir / "metadata.yaml").exists():
raise SystemExit(f"no metadata.yaml under {task_dir}")
return yaml.safe_load((task_dir / "metadata.yaml").open())
def scoring_dir(task_dir: Path) -> Path:
"""Map a PUBLIC task dir (.../tasks/<type>/<task>) to its PRIVATE scoring dir
(.../scoring/<type>/<task>), which holds reference_metrics.json and
validity_rubrics.json. The public tree (tasks/) is what solvers receive; the
scoring anchors live in the withheld scoring/ tree."""
parts = list(Path(task_dir).resolve().parts)
for i in range(len(parts) - 1, -1, -1):
if parts[i] == "tasks":
parts[i] = "scoring"
return Path(*parts)
raise SystemExit(f"cannot locate scoring/ tree for {task_dir} "
f"(expected a 'tasks' component in the path)")
def reference_metrics_path(task_dir: Path) -> Path:
public_eval = Path(task_dir) / "eval" / "reference_metrics.json"
if public_eval.exists():
return public_eval
return scoring_dir(task_dir) / "reference_metrics.json"
def task_metric(meta: dict) -> str:
"""The task's declared metric — required, and must be in the registry.
No silent default: a task that forgets `metric:` is a setup error, not
something to paper over with rmse.
"""
m = meta.get("metric")
if m is None:
raise SystemExit("metadata.yaml has no `metric:` field (required)")
if m not in METRICS:
raise SystemExit(f"metadata `metric: {m}` is not a known metric — "
f"choose one of {sorted(METRICS)}")
return m
def load_task_registry(task_dir: Path) -> dict:
"""Import the task's `formulas` package, return its REGISTRY dict."""
sys.path.insert(0, str(task_dir))
import formulas # noqa: PLC0415 (task-local package via sys.path)
importlib.reload(formulas)
return formulas.REGISTRY
def load_submission(path: Path):
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(f"_submission_{path.stem}", path)
mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
return mod
# ==========================================================================
# mode: reference — build the skill-normalisation anchors
# ==========================================================================
def _ref_entry(mod, extra: dict) -> dict:
"""Common metadata block for a reference baseline entry."""
return {
"kind": "reference",
"paper_ref": getattr(mod, "PAPER_REF", None),
"equation_loc": getattr(mod, "EQUATION_LOC", None),
"law_constants": {k: float(v) for k, v in mod.LAW_CONSTANTS.items()},
"other_constants": {k: float(v) for k, v in mod.OTHER_CONSTANTS.items()},
"local_fittable": sorted(mod.LOCAL_FITTABLE.keys()),
**extra,
}
# Anti-dump caps are derived from the reference bank (§7.6). Static caps =
# the most any reference paper itself uses. fit_timeout = the slowest
# measured reference fit × a safety factor (the factor absorbs machine
# timing variance — the cap only needs to catch order-of-magnitude abuse).
FIT_TIMEOUT_FACTOR = 10
FIT_TIMEOUT_FLOOR = 10 # seconds
def derive_caps(registry: dict, max_ref_fit_seconds: float, task_type: str) -> dict:
"""Derive the anti-dump caps from the reference bank.
A submission may be as complex as the most complex published formula —
no more. All four caps come from the bank, not from a task author.
"""
law_counts = [len(m.LAW_CONSTANTS) for m in registry.values()]
local_counts = [len(m.LOCAL_FITTABLE) for m in registry.values()]
init_sizes = [1]
for m in registry.values():
for spec in m.LOCAL_FITTABLE.values():
init = spec.get("init") if isinstance(spec, dict) else None
init_sizes.append(len(init) if isinstance(init, (list, tuple)) else 1)
caps = {
"max_law_constants": max(law_counts) if law_counts else 0,
"max_local_params": max(local_counts) if local_counts else 0,
"max_init_size_per_param": max(init_sizes),
}
if task_type == "typeI":
caps["fit_timeout_seconds"] = None # Type I has no fit()
else:
caps["fit_timeout_seconds"] = max(
FIT_TIMEOUT_FLOOR,
int(np.ceil(max_ref_fit_seconds * FIT_TIMEOUT_FACTOR)),
)
return caps
def mode_reference(task_dir: Path) -> int:
meta = load_task(task_dir)
task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII")
target_name = meta["target"]["name"]
task_metric(meta) # fail fast if metric is missing / unknown
registry = load_task_registry(task_dir)
baselines: dict[str, dict] = {}
max_ref_fit_seconds = 0.0
if task_type == "typeI":
flat = load_flat(task_dir)
print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] Type I — {len(flat['test_rows'])} flat test rows.",
flush=True)
for stem in sorted(registry):
mod = registry[stem]
res = run_formula_flat(mod, flat, target_name)
baselines[stem] = _ref_entry(mod, {
"failed": res["failed"], "error": res["error"],
"metrics": res["metrics"],
})
n_units = len(flat["test_rows"])
else:
clusters = load_clusters(task_dir)
n_units = len(clusters["cluster_ids"])
print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] Type II — {n_units} test clusters.", flush=True)
for stem in sorted(registry):
mod = registry[stem]
# References run UNtimed — we measure them to derive the cap.
# seed=BASE_SEED: reference formulas are deterministic, but fixing
# the seed makes even a stochastic reference reproducible.
res = run_formula(mod, clusters, target_name,
fit_timeout_seconds=None, seed=BASE_SEED)
max_ref_fit_seconds = max(max_ref_fit_seconds, res.get("max_fit_seconds", 0.0))
baselines[stem] = _ref_entry(mod, {
"n_clusters_fitted": res["n_clusters_fitted"],
"n_clusters_failed": res["n_clusters_failed"],
"max_fit_seconds": res.get("max_fit_seconds", 0.0),
"per_cluster": {str(c): v["metrics"] for c, v in res["per_cluster"].items()},
})
caps = derive_caps(registry, max_ref_fit_seconds, task_type)
out = {
"task": meta["task_id"],
"type": task_type,
"metric_declared": meta.get("metric"),
"reference_baseline_id": meta.get("reference_baseline_id"),
("n_test_rows" if task_type == "typeI" else "n_clusters"): n_units,
"derived_caps": caps,
"baselines": dict(sorted(baselines.items())),
}
out_path = reference_metrics_path(task_dir)
out_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
with out_path.open("w") as fh:
json.dump(out, fh, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
fh.write("\n")
print(f"[reference] wrote {out_path}")
print(f" derived caps: {caps}")
metric = task_metric(meta)
hdr = metric if task_type == "typeI" else f"mean-cluster-{metric}"
print(f"\n {'baseline':<26} {hdr:>20}")
for name, b in out["baselines"].items():
v = _baseline_metric(b, metric)
if v is None:
print(f" {name:<26} FAILED: {b.get('error')}")
else:
print(f" {name:<26} {v:>20.4f}")
return 0
# ==========================================================================
# mode: score — scoring layers on top of eval_formula
# ==========================================================================
def validate_contract(mod, caps: dict) -> list[str]:
"""Return contract violations (empty list = passes).
`caps` is the `derived_caps` block from reference_metrics.json — the
anti-dump caps derived from the reference bank (§7.6).
"""
errs: list[str] = []
for field in ("USED_INPUTS", "LAW_CONSTANTS", "OTHER_CONSTANTS", "LOCAL_FITTABLE"):
if not hasattr(mod, field):
errs.append(f"missing required field: {field}")
if errs:
return errs
local = mod.LOCAL_FITTABLE
is_type_ii = bool(local)
if not hasattr(mod, "predict"):
errs.append("missing predict()")
else:
if "group_id" in inspect.signature(mod.predict).parameters:
errs.append("predict() signature contains 'group_id' (forbidden — anti-dump)")
if is_type_ii and not hasattr(mod, "fit"):
errs.append("LOCAL_FITTABLE non-empty but fit() missing (Type II requires fit())")
if not is_type_ii and hasattr(mod, "fit"):
errs.append("LOCAL_FITTABLE empty but fit() present (Type I must not define fit())")
cap_law = caps.get("max_law_constants")
if cap_law is not None and len(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS) > cap_law:
errs.append(f"len(LAW_CONSTANTS)={len(mod.LAW_CONSTANTS)} exceeds "
f"max_law_constants={cap_law}")
cap_local = caps.get("max_local_params")
if cap_local is not None and len(local) > cap_local:
errs.append(f"len(LOCAL_FITTABLE)={len(local)} exceeds max_local_params={cap_local}")
cap_init = caps.get("max_init_size_per_param")
if cap_init is not None:
for name, spec in local.items():
init = spec.get("init") if isinstance(spec, dict) else None
if isinstance(init, (list, tuple)) and len(init) > cap_init:
errs.append(f"LOCAL_FITTABLE['{name}']['init'] length {len(init)} "
f"exceeds max_init_size_per_param={cap_init}")
return errs
def _score_one_cluster(sub_v: float, ref_v: float, metric: str) -> float:
"""Reference-relative score for one cluster (or the flat Type I test set).
Lower-is-better (perfect = 0): score = 1 - 0.5 * sub / ref
Higher-is-better (perfect = P): score = 0.5 + 0.5 * (sub - ref) / (P - ref)
Clipped to [0, 1]. ref -> 0.5, perfect -> 1.0, 2x the ref error -> 0.
The reference is never (near-)perfect here — those units are excluded
upstream by `_ref_nondiscriminative`, so the denominators are non-zero.
"""
spec = METRICS[metric]
if spec["direction"] == "higher":
score = 0.5 + 0.5 * (sub_v - ref_v) / (spec["perfect"] - ref_v)
else:
score = 1.0 - 0.5 * sub_v / ref_v # lower-is-better, perfect = 0
return float(np.clip(score, 0.0, 1.0))
def _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v: float, metric: str) -> bool:
"""True if the reference is itself (near-)perfect on this unit → exclude."""
return abs(ref_v - METRICS[metric]["perfect"]) <= REF_EPS
def _baseline_metric(b: dict, metric: str) -> float | None:
"""The single raw-metric value scoring uses for a reference baseline.
Type II → mean of the per-cluster metric (scoring is per-cluster, so the
representative raw number is the per-cluster mean — never a cross-cluster
pool). Type I → the metric on the flat test set. None if unavailable.
"""
pc = b.get("per_cluster")
if pc: # Type II
vals = [m[metric] for m in pc.values() if m and m.get(metric) is not None]
return float(np.mean(vals)) if vals else None
fm = b.get("metrics") # Type I
if fm and fm.get(metric) is not None:
return float(fm[metric])
return None
def _best_reference(ref_metrics: dict, metric: str) -> tuple[str | None, str]:
"""Pick the best reference baseline in the bank.
Best = argmin/argmax of `_baseline_metric` (mean per-cluster for Type II,
flat-set metric for Type I). `reference_baseline_id` in metadata is only
a label; the anchor is the empirically best baseline so the 0.5 mark is
always the strongest paper.
"""
higher = _is_higher_better(metric)
cand: dict[str, float] = {}
for name, b in ref_metrics["baselines"].items():
if b.get("kind") != "reference":
continue
v = _baseline_metric(b, metric)
if v is not None:
cand[name] = v
if not cand:
return None, "no reference baseline produced a finite metric"
best = max(cand, key=cand.get) if higher else min(cand, key=cand.get)
return best, ""
def _zero_score_result(
label: str,
meta: dict,
status: str,
*,
contract_ok: bool | None,
error: str | None = None,
violations: list[str] | None = None,
note: str | None = None,
score: dict | None = None,
) -> dict:
metric = task_metric(meta)
n_seeds = 1 if meta.get("type", "typeII") == "typeI" else N_SEEDS
score_obj = score or {"metric": metric, "numeric_score": 0.0}
score_obj.setdefault("metric", metric)
score_obj.setdefault("numeric_score", 0.0)
if note is not None:
score_obj.setdefault("note", note)
return {
"submission": label,
"contract_ok": contract_ok,
"status": status,
"error": error,
"violations": violations,
"note": note,
"metric": metric,
"raw_metric": None,
"score": score_obj,
"numeric_score": 0.0,
"raw_numeric_score": None,
"numeric_score_std": 0.0,
"numeric_score_per_seed": [0.0] * n_seeds,
"raw_numeric_score_per_seed": [None] * n_seeds,
}
def compute_numeric_score(sub_result: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict) -> dict:
"""Type II reference-relative score: per-cluster score, equal-weight mean.
score_N = clip(1 - 0.5 * sub_N / ref_N, 0, 1) [lower-is-better]
where ref_N is the per-cluster metric of the BEST reference baseline.
Failed cluster -> score_N = 0. Cluster where the reference is itself
(near-)perfect is excluded (non-discriminative).
"""
metric = task_metric(meta)
best_id, why = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric)
if best_id is None:
return {"metric": metric, "numeric_score": 0.0, "raw_numeric_score": None,
"note": why}
ref_pc = ref_metrics["baselines"][best_id]["per_cluster"]
per_cluster_score: dict[str, float] = {}
excluded: list[str] = []
for cid_str, ref_m in ref_pc.items():
if ref_m is None or ref_m.get(metric) is None:
excluded.append(cid_str)
continue
ref_v = ref_m[metric]
if _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v, metric):
excluded.append(cid_str)
continue
sub_pc = sub_result["per_cluster"].get(int(cid_str))
if sub_pc is None or sub_pc["failed"] or sub_pc["metrics"] is None:
score = 0.0
else:
score = _score_one_cluster(sub_pc["metrics"][metric], ref_v, metric)
per_cluster_score[cid_str] = score
numeric_score = float(np.mean(list(per_cluster_score.values()))) if per_cluster_score else 0.0
return {
"metric": metric,
"best_reference_id": best_id,
"n_clusters_scored": len(per_cluster_score),
"n_clusters_excluded_nondiscriminative": len(excluded),
"per_cluster_score": per_cluster_score,
"numeric_score": numeric_score,
"raw_numeric_score": numeric_score if per_cluster_score else None,
"note": None if per_cluster_score else "no discriminative clusters scored",
}
def compute_numeric_score_flat(sub_result: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict) -> dict:
"""Type I reference-relative score — one number (no clusters).
score = clip(1 - 0.5 * sub / ref, 0, 1) on the flat test set.
Submission failed -> score = 0. Reference (near-)perfect -> score 0
with a note (task degenerate for scoring).
"""
metric = task_metric(meta)
best_id, why = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric)
if best_id is None:
return {"metric": metric, "numeric_score": 0.0, "raw_numeric_score": None,
"note": why}
ref_v = ref_metrics["baselines"][best_id]["metrics"][metric]
note = None
if _ref_nondiscriminative(ref_v, metric):
numeric_score = 0.0
note = "best reference is nondiscriminative / near-perfect"
elif sub_result["failed"] or sub_result["metrics"] is None:
numeric_score = 0.0
else:
numeric_score = _score_one_cluster(sub_result["metrics"][metric], ref_v, metric)
return {
"metric": metric,
"best_reference_id": best_id,
"numeric_score": numeric_score,
"raw_numeric_score": None if note else numeric_score,
"note": note,
}
def score_one(mod, label: str, data: dict, ref_metrics: dict, meta: dict,
ref_registry: dict, *, exclude_self_from_baselines: bool = False) -> dict:
"""Score one formula and return the deterministic numeric score.
`data` is a flat dict (Type I) or clusters dict (Type II).
`ref_registry` is kept for the self-test call signature; numeric scoring
uses the frozen reference metrics, not the reference formula source.
Set `exclude_self_from_baselines=True` when self-testing a reference
baseline as if it were a submission.
"""
caps = ref_metrics.get("derived_caps", {})
errs = validate_contract(mod, caps)
if errs:
return _zero_score_result(
label,
meta,
"contract_fail",
contract_ok=False,
violations=errs,
note="contract violation",
)
task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII")
target_name = meta["target"]["name"]
if task_type == "typeI":
# Type I — no fit(), deterministic: a single run.
sub_result = run_formula_flat(mod, data, target_name)
score = compute_numeric_score_flat(sub_result, ref_metrics, meta)
numeric_per_seed = [score["numeric_score"]]
raw_numeric_per_seed = [score.get("raw_numeric_score")]
exec_info = {"failed": sub_result["failed"], "error": sub_result["error"],
"n_seeds": 1}
else:
# Type II — fit() may be stochastic: run N_SEEDS fixed seeds (Scheme B),
# report mean / std of numeric_score. A deterministic fit() → std 0.
sub_result = None
score = None
numeric_per_seed = []
raw_numeric_per_seed = []
for k in range(N_SEEDS):
sr = run_formula(mod, data, target_name,
fit_timeout_seconds=caps.get("fit_timeout_seconds"),
seed=BASE_SEED + k)
sc = compute_numeric_score(sr, ref_metrics, meta)
numeric_per_seed.append(sc["numeric_score"])
raw_numeric_per_seed.append(sc.get("raw_numeric_score"))
if sub_result is None:
sub_result, score = sr, sc # detail reported from the first seed
exec_info = {"n_clusters_fitted": sub_result["n_clusters_fitted"],
"n_clusters_failed": sub_result["n_clusters_failed"],
"n_seeds": N_SEEDS}
numeric = float(np.mean(numeric_per_seed)) if numeric_per_seed else 0.0
numeric_std = float(np.std(numeric_per_seed)) if numeric_per_seed else 0.0
raw_numeric_vals = [v for v in raw_numeric_per_seed if isinstance(v, (int, float))]
raw_numeric = float(np.mean(raw_numeric_vals)) if raw_numeric_vals else None
# Raw-metric summary scoring is based on: Type I → the flat-set metric;
# Type II → the mean per-cluster metric (no cross-cluster pooling).
metric = task_metric(meta)
if task_type == "typeI":
fm = sub_result["metrics"]
raw_metric = fm[metric] if fm and fm.get(metric) is not None else None
else:
vals = [c["metrics"][metric] for c in sub_result["per_cluster"].values()
if c["metrics"] and c["metrics"].get(metric) is not None]
raw_metric = float(np.mean(vals)) if vals else None
failed = bool(sub_result["failed"]) if task_type == "typeI" \
else exec_info["n_clusters_fitted"] == 0 and exec_info["n_clusters_failed"] > 0
return {
"submission": label,
"contract_ok": True,
"status": "exec_error" if failed else "ok",
**exec_info,
"raw_metric": raw_metric,
"score": score,
"numeric_score": numeric,
"raw_numeric_score": raw_numeric,
"numeric_score_std": numeric_std,
"numeric_score_per_seed": numeric_per_seed,
"raw_numeric_score_per_seed": raw_numeric_per_seed,
}
def mode_score(task_dir: Path, submission: Path | None) -> int:
meta = load_task(task_dir)
task_type = meta.get("type", "typeII")
ref_path = reference_metrics_path(task_dir) # private scoring/ tree
if not ref_path.exists():
raise SystemExit(f"{ref_path} missing — run `evaluate_numeric.py reference {task_dir}` first.")
ref_metrics = json.load(ref_path.open())
data = load_flat(task_dir) if task_type == "typeI" else load_clusters(task_dir)
if submission is not None:
# numeric_score needs only reference_metrics.json (the anchors) — the
# reference baseline .py files are NOT shipped, so pass an empty registry
# (it was only used by the removed LLM judge).
try:
mod = load_submission(submission.resolve())
result = score_one(mod, submission.name, data, ref_metrics, meta, {})
except Exception as exc:
result = _zero_score_result(
submission.name,
meta,
"compile_error",
contract_ok=False,
error=f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}",
)
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2, sort_keys=True))
return 0
# Self-test needs the reference baseline .py files, which are NOT included in
# the release (only the scoring/ anchors). Pass a submission instead.
try:
registry = load_task_registry(task_dir)
except Exception:
print("[self-test unavailable] reference baseline formulas are not "
"shipped (only scoring/.../reference_metrics.json).\n"
"Score a submission instead: evaluate_numeric.py score <task_dir> <sub.py>")
return 0
# Self-test: score each reference baseline as a submission.
metric = task_metric(meta)
raw_hdr = metric if task_type == "typeI" else f"mean-{metric}"
print(f"[{meta['task_id']}] ({task_type}) self-test — each reference baseline "
f"scored as a submission:\n")
print(f" {'submission':<26} {raw_hdr:>13} {'numeric':>9} {'±std':>8}")
for stem in sorted(registry):
result = score_one(registry[stem], stem, data, ref_metrics, meta, registry,
exclude_self_from_baselines=True)
if not result["contract_ok"]:
print(f" {stem:<26} CONTRACT FAIL: {result['violations']}")
continue
rv = result.get("raw_metric")
pv = f"{rv:>13.4f}" if isinstance(rv, (int, float)) else f"{'FAILED':>13}"
ns = result["numeric_score"]
ns_s = f"{ns:>9.4f}" if ns is not None else f"{'—':>9}"
sd = result["numeric_score_std"]
sd_s = f"{sd:>8.4f}" if sd is not None else f"{'—':>8}"
print(f" {stem:<26} {pv} {ns_s} {sd_s}")
best_id, _ = _best_reference(ref_metrics, metric)
print(f"\n (best reference baseline = {best_id} → expect its numeric ≈ 0.5)")
return 0
# ==========================================================================
# CLI
# ==========================================================================
def main() -> int:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="RealSR numeric scoring harness")
sub = ap.add_subparsers(dest="mode", required=True)
p_ref = sub.add_parser("reference", help="build reference anchors for a task")
p_ref.add_argument("task_dir", type=Path)
p_sc = sub.add_parser("score", help="score a submission (or self-test)")
p_sc.add_argument("task_dir", type=Path)
p_sc.add_argument("submission", type=Path, nargs="?", default=None)
args = ap.parse_args()
if args.mode == "reference":
return mode_reference(args.task_dir.resolve())
return mode_score(args.task_dir.resolve(), args.submission)
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())