beforedone-paper / analysis /precision.json
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{
"interpretation": {
"correlation_warning": "The correlation parameters are Gaussian latent-factor variance components, not Bernoulli Pearson correlations. Same-run phase latent correlation equals task correlation plus the reported within-run increment.",
"grid_definition": "The reported MDE is the first tested absolute risk-reduction grid point reaching target power; it is not an exact continuous threshold.",
"repository_dependence_warning": "The twelve task clusters come from only three repositories, with four tasks per repository. This simulation has no additional repository-level factor, so unmodeled within-repository dependence can overstate precision; it does not support repository-population inference.",
"scope_warning": "Power depends on the simulated baseline phase-opportunity risk, latent task correlation, additional within-run phase correlation, and paired-outcome model; it does not generalize beyond the frozen benchmark suite.",
"small_sample_warning": "Twelve task clusters provide limited precision. Wide intervals or non-significant findings are not evidence of equivalence."
},
"precision": {
"alpha_two_sided": 0.05,
"clusters": 12,
"estimand": "risk(beforedone) - risk(prompt_only)",
"model": "latent-normal phase-opportunity Bernoulli outcomes with a shared task factor, condition-and-repetition-specific run factors for two-stage tasks, and phase residuals",
"phase_design": {
"schedule_sha256": "sha256:a216d003dc6daa711442a04c11f21926918fc8301ac9afb331618e7fae133296",
"source": "validated_confirmatory_task_manifests_and_schedule",
"task_phase_design_sha256": "sha256:7e847d21e291500dcffdf2796373ba1d191642ee39a1f081d2d64d6a6e29e2bd",
"tasks": [
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "irrelevant_change",
"task_id": "go-irrelevant-error-messages",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:e076a4b1569ffb96b2f627ef32be139c2df022c591b50e8c23d647047489e84c"
},
{
"phase_count": 1,
"scenario": "premature",
"task_id": "go-premature-approx-duration",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:e63e55aaeb866aa8a8e1d7f7f5131a8fcec8f8c36672861994b5cc1218eb9f74"
},
{
"phase_count": 1,
"scenario": "premature",
"task_id": "go-premature-canonical-newlines",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:482932b92568df8f795a9e67f07734144b07428110dd7212c7163a0b5b16fbee"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "relevant_change",
"task_id": "go-relevant-case-fold",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:ae95a8ce0d8f29d4b59ab7073bdedca8be3ef2683057b1ef43d81b6119dd10ac"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "irrelevant_change",
"task_id": "py-irrelevant-metric-doc-change",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:071fd5551875f1a3d768a182f10886c3714fc699f9b32f436ae8a3c5b64f5161"
},
{
"phase_count": 1,
"scenario": "premature",
"task_id": "py-premature-filesize-rollover",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:98ecc22eadd61596e43682acad727e99a51350c5da0970cc5eb6d1d80de1b467"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "relevant_change",
"task_id": "py-relevant-naturaldate-timezone",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:238f480938482980deed967c0eaf3571b3daa651deb2be37a38d6565c8f5f28e"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "relevant_change",
"task_id": "py-relevant-negative-fraction",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:84ab34892c6af709d8dee4b8167f3ff13c4285dbf8e495e4feb277028b332da5"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "irrelevant_change",
"task_id": "ts-irrelevant-baseurl-join",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:ca34264d0615bf0454e7f9b152768eb00aea00051409db02a61cc44e54c37385"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "irrelevant_change",
"task_id": "ts-irrelevant-fragment-query",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:9494efeeeda60b6b0738de520a73a6a45a5be8ad8ba45387d1900ff7e1b73ccc"
},
{
"phase_count": 1,
"scenario": "premature",
"task_id": "ts-premature-route-whitespace",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:122a675284590a38038b1f3cb2a31d1832bcc18890217833411cdee4ce6d4729"
},
{
"phase_count": 2,
"scenario": "relevant_change",
"task_id": "ts-relevant-array-query",
"task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:d91b9062bfc6644a5655e26e3336263fb36c85ec771aa462f1a6f9c3045ab928"
}
]
},
"phase_opportunities_per_condition": 60,
"repetitions_per_condition_per_cluster": 3,
"seed": 2026072302,
"simulations_per_grid_point": 4000,
"target_power": 0.8,
"task_condition_denominators": [
6,
3,
3,
6,
6,
3,
6,
6,
6,
6,
3,
6
],
"task_counts_by_phase_count": {
"1": 4,
"2": 8
},
"task_phase_counts": [
2,
1,
1,
2,
2,
1,
2,
2,
2,
2,
1,
2
],
"test": "pool phase opportunities within each task-condition, form twelve paired task risk differences, and compare their absolute studentized mean with a scenario-specific empirical null critical value",
"version": "0.2.1-prepilot"
},
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