Upload 27 files
Browse files- Advance_version/.DS_Store +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/backtester.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/data_loader.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/kalman_hedge.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/logger.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/pair_selector.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/portfolio_optimizer.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/risk_engine.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/signal_generator.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/__pycache__/utils.cpython-312.pyc +0 -0
- Advance_version/backtester.py +103 -0
- Advance_version/config.yaml +82 -0
- Advance_version/data_loader.py +72 -0
- Advance_version/execution_engine.py +35 -0
- Advance_version/kalman_hedge.py +144 -0
- Advance_version/logger.py +20 -0
- Advance_version/pair_selector.py +91 -0
- Advance_version/portfolio_optimizer.py +57 -0
- Advance_version/risk_engine.py +93 -0
- Advance_version/run_backtest.py +189 -0
- Advance_version/scripts/run_backtest.py +147 -0
- Advance_version/signal_generator.py +129 -0
- Advance_version/utils.py +98 -0
- output/pair_summary.csv +92 -0
- output/portfolio_metrics.csv +2 -0
- output/portfolio_weights.csv +57 -0
- trade_details.csv +167 -0
Advance_version/.DS_Store
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Advance_version/__pycache__/backtester.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/data_loader.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/kalman_hedge.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/logger.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/pair_selector.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/portfolio_optimizer.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/risk_engine.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/signal_generator.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/__pycache__/utils.cpython-312.pyc
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Advance_version/backtester.py
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| 1 |
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import pandas as pd
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| 2 |
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import numpy as np
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| 3 |
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import logging
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logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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+
class Backtester:
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| 7 |
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def __init__(self, trade_df: pd.DataFrame, costs: dict, volume: pd.DataFrame, ticker1: str, ticker2: str):
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| 8 |
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self.df = trade_df.copy()
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| 9 |
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self.fixed_cost = costs["fixed_per_trade"]
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| 10 |
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self.slip_coeff = costs["slippage_coefficient"]
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| 11 |
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self.volume = volume
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| 12 |
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self.ticker1 = ticker1
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| 13 |
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self.ticker2 = ticker2
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| 14 |
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self._prepare()
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| 15 |
+
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| 16 |
+
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| 17 |
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def _prepare(self):
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| 18 |
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"""
|
| 19 |
+
1. Compute daily returns for each leg.
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| 20 |
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2. Align positions with returns (shift positions by 1 day to avoid look‐ahead).
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| 21 |
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3. Compute trades (where positions change).
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| 22 |
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"""
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| 23 |
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self.df["ret1"] = self.df["price1"].pct_change().fillna(0)
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| 24 |
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self.df["ret2"] = self.df["price2"].pct_change().fillna(0)
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# Shift positions to align with next day's pnl
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| 27 |
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self.df["pos1_lag"] = self.df["pos1"].shift(1).fillna(0)
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self.df["pos2_lag"] = self.df["pos2"].shift(1).fillna(0)
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| 30 |
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# Identify when trades occur (pos changes)
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self.df["trade1"] = (self.df["pos1"] != self.df["pos1_lag"]).astype(int)
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self.df["trade2"] = (self.df["pos2"] != self.df["pos2_lag"]).astype(int)
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def run(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""
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Compute P&L step by step:
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1) Gross P&L: pos_lag * returns
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2) Subtract transaction costs when trade occurs:
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| 39 |
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fixed cost + slippage based on ADV
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| 40 |
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Returns a DataFrame augmented with P&L columns.
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"""
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| 42 |
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df = self.df.copy()
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| 43 |
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# 1) Gross P&L (as fraction of capital)
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df["pnl1"] = df["pos1_lag"] * df["ret1"]
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| 46 |
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df["pnl2"] = df["pos2_lag"] * df["ret2"]
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| 47 |
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df["gross_pnl"] = df["pnl1"] + df["pnl2"]
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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# 2) Transaction costs
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| 50 |
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# For each trade, cost = fixed + slippage_coefficient * (notional / ADV)
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| 51 |
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# Approx ADV: use prev day's volume * price
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| 52 |
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adv1 = self.volume[self.ticker1].shift(1) * df["price1"].shift(1)
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adv2 = self.volume[self.ticker2].shift(1) * df["price2"].shift(1)
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| 54 |
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| 55 |
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# Avoid division by zero
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| 56 |
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adv1 = adv1.replace(0, np.nan).fillna(method="ffill").fillna(1e6)
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| 57 |
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adv2 = adv2.replace(0, np.nan).fillna(method="ffill").fillna(1e6)
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| 58 |
+
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| 59 |
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df["slip1"] = (
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| 60 |
+
self.slip_coeff * (abs(df["pos1"] - df["pos1_lag"]) * df["price1"])
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| 61 |
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/ adv1
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| 62 |
+
)
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| 63 |
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df["slip2"] = (
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| 64 |
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self.slip_coeff * (abs(df["pos2"] - df["pos2_lag"]) * df["price2"])
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| 65 |
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/ adv2
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| 66 |
+
)
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| 67 |
+
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| 68 |
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df["trans_cost1"] = df["trade1"] * (self.fixed_cost + df["slip1"])
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| 69 |
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df["trans_cost2"] = df["trade2"] * (self.fixed_cost + df["slip2"])
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| 70 |
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df["total_tc"] = df["trans_cost1"] + df["trans_cost2"]
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| 71 |
+
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| 72 |
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# 3) Net P&L
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| 73 |
+
df["net_pnl"] = df["gross_pnl"] - df["total_tc"]
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| 74 |
+
|
| 75 |
+
# 4) Cumulative returns
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| 76 |
+
df["strategy_return"] = df["net_pnl"]
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| 77 |
+
df["cum_return"] = (1 + df["strategy_return"]).cumprod() - 1
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| 78 |
+
|
| 79 |
+
logger.info("Backtest run completed.")
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| 80 |
+
return df
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| 81 |
+
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| 82 |
+
def performance_metrics(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
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| 83 |
+
"""
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| 84 |
+
Compute standard metrics: Sharpe, annualized return, max drawdown.
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| 85 |
+
:return: dict of metrics.
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| 86 |
+
"""
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| 87 |
+
returns = df["strategy_return"].fillna(0)
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| 88 |
+
ann_return = (1 + returns).prod() ** (252 / len(returns)) - 1
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| 89 |
+
ann_vol = returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)
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| 90 |
+
sharpe = ann_return / ann_vol if ann_vol != 0 else np.nan
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| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
# Max drawdown
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| 93 |
+
cum = (1 + returns).cumprod()
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| 94 |
+
peak = cum.cummax()
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| 95 |
+
drawdown = (cum - peak) / peak
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| 96 |
+
max_dd = drawdown.min()
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| 97 |
+
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| 98 |
+
return {
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| 99 |
+
"annual_return": ann_return,
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| 100 |
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"annual_vol": ann_vol,
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| 101 |
+
"sharpe": sharpe,
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| 102 |
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"max_drawdown": max_dd
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| 103 |
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}
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Advance_version/config.yaml
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| 1 |
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# ===========================
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| 2 |
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# Data Loader Settings
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| 3 |
+
# ===========================
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| 4 |
+
data:
|
| 5 |
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tickers: # List of tickers to consider in universe
|
| 6 |
+
- "3N4.SG"
|
| 7 |
+
- "CUBEXTUB.NS"
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| 8 |
+
- "JIX.F"
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| 9 |
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- "HINDCOPPER.NS"
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| 10 |
+
- "SARKY.IS"
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| 11 |
+
- "RE8.F"
|
| 12 |
+
- "BHAGYANGR.NS"
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| 13 |
+
- "FDY.TO"
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| 14 |
+
- "9CM0.F"
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| 15 |
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- "GRX.AX"
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| 16 |
+
- "ARREF"
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| 17 |
+
- "MTJ3.F"
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| 18 |
+
- "GRX.L"
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| 19 |
+
- "005810.KS"
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| 20 |
+
- "2009.TW"
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| 21 |
+
- "OUW0.F"
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| 22 |
+
- "CS.TO"
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| 23 |
+
- "SFR.AX"
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| 24 |
+
- "PUCOBRE.SN"
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| 25 |
+
- "ATYM.L"
|
| 26 |
+
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| 27 |
+
start_date: "2021-01-01"
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| 28 |
+
end_date: "2025-07-01"
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| 29 |
+
interval: "1d" # "1d", "5m", etc.
|
| 30 |
+
|
| 31 |
+
# ===========================
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| 32 |
+
# Pair Selector Settings
|
| 33 |
+
# ===========================
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| 34 |
+
pair_selector:
|
| 35 |
+
cluster_size: 20 # approx. number of tickers per cluster
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| 36 |
+
coint_pval_threshold: 0.05
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| 37 |
+
rolling_window: 252 # days for rolling cointegration
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| 38 |
+
rolling_step: 63 # days per step
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| 39 |
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min_valid_periods: 2 # consecutive windows required
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| 40 |
+
|
| 41 |
+
# ===========================
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| 42 |
+
# Kalman Hedge Settings
|
| 43 |
+
# ===========================
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| 44 |
+
kalman:
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| 45 |
+
initial_state_cov: [[1e-4, 0], [0, 1e-4]] # small prior covariance for intercept & beta
|
| 46 |
+
transition_cov: [[1e-5, 0], [0, 1e-5]] # process noise; EM will refine
|
| 47 |
+
observation_cov: 1e-3 # observation noise; EM will refine
|
| 48 |
+
em_iterations: 20
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
# ===========================
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| 51 |
+
# Signal Generator Settings
|
| 52 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 53 |
+
signal:
|
| 54 |
+
zscore_window: 20 # rolling window for spread mean/std
|
| 55 |
+
entry_z: 2.0 # base z-score for entry (will scale by vol)
|
| 56 |
+
exit_z: 0.5 # base z-score for exit
|
| 57 |
+
target_vol: 0.001 # target daily vol of spread (10 bps)
|
| 58 |
+
min_vol_percentile: 30 # only trade if spread vol rank < 30th percentile
|
| 59 |
+
momentum_filter: true # require spread momentum to point back to mean
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 62 |
+
# Transaction Cost Settings
|
| 63 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 64 |
+
costs:
|
| 65 |
+
fixed_per_trade: 0.000 # $0.005 per share
|
| 66 |
+
slippage_coefficient: 0.0000 # 1 bp slippage per 0.1% of ADV
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| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
# ===========================
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| 69 |
+
# Risk Engine Settings
|
| 70 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 71 |
+
risk:
|
| 72 |
+
daily_var_window: 252
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| 73 |
+
var_confidence: 0.95
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| 74 |
+
max_drawdown_limit: 0.02 # 2% per day (hard stop)
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| 75 |
+
worst_pair_dd: 0.05 # drop pair if drawdown > 5%
|
| 76 |
+
|
| 77 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 78 |
+
# Portfolio Optimizer Settings
|
| 79 |
+
# ===========================
|
| 80 |
+
portfolio:
|
| 81 |
+
min_weight: 0.0
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| 82 |
+
max_weight: 0.1 # no single pair >10% of capital
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Advance_version/data_loader.py
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| 1 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 2 |
+
import yfinance as yf
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
from typing import List, Tuple
|
| 5 |
+
|
| 6 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
class DataLoader:
|
| 9 |
+
"""
|
| 10 |
+
Fetches and preprocesses price (and volume) data for a given universe.
|
| 11 |
+
Supports daily and intraday via yfinance.
|
| 12 |
+
"""
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
def __init__(self, tickers: List[str], start_date: str, end_date: str, interval: str = "1d"):
|
| 15 |
+
"""
|
| 16 |
+
:param tickers: List of ticker strings.
|
| 17 |
+
:param start_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
|
| 18 |
+
:param end_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
|
| 19 |
+
:param interval: "1d", "5m", etc.
|
| 20 |
+
"""
|
| 21 |
+
self.tickers = tickers
|
| 22 |
+
self.start_date = start_date
|
| 23 |
+
self.end_date = end_date
|
| 24 |
+
self.interval = interval
|
| 25 |
+
|
| 26 |
+
def fetch_data(self) -> Tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]:
|
| 27 |
+
"""
|
| 28 |
+
Downloads Adj Close and Volume for all tickers between start_date and end_date.
|
| 29 |
+
:return: Tuple (prices_df, volume_df). Both are DataFrames with datetime index.
|
| 30 |
+
"""
|
| 31 |
+
logger.info(f"Fetching data for {len(self.tickers)} tickers from {self.start_date} to {self.end_date} at interval {self.interval}.")
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
raw = yf.download(
|
| 34 |
+
tickers=self.tickers,
|
| 35 |
+
start=self.start_date,
|
| 36 |
+
end=self.end_date,
|
| 37 |
+
interval=self.interval,
|
| 38 |
+
auto_adjust=True,
|
| 39 |
+
progress=False
|
| 40 |
+
)
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
if raw.empty:
|
| 43 |
+
logger.error("No data fetched. Please check your tickers and date range.")
|
| 44 |
+
raise ValueError("Empty pricing data.")
|
| 45 |
+
|
| 46 |
+
# yfinance returns a MultiIndex with (Attribute, Ticker)
|
| 47 |
+
# We extract 'Close' (adjusted) and 'Volume'.
|
| 48 |
+
if "Close" in raw and "Volume" in raw:
|
| 49 |
+
prices = raw["Close"].copy()
|
| 50 |
+
volume = raw["Volume"].copy()
|
| 51 |
+
else:
|
| 52 |
+
# For some intervals, yfinance may label adjusted close as 'Adj Close'
|
| 53 |
+
if "Adj Close" in raw and "Volume" in raw:
|
| 54 |
+
prices = raw["Adj Close"].copy()
|
| 55 |
+
volume = raw["Volume"].copy()
|
| 56 |
+
else:
|
| 57 |
+
logger.error("Unexpected data format from yfinance.")
|
| 58 |
+
raise ValueError("Unexpected data format.")
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
# Drop rows where any ticker is missing (to align)
|
| 61 |
+
combined = pd.concat([prices, volume], axis=1, keys=["price", "volume"])
|
| 62 |
+
combined = combined.dropna()
|
| 63 |
+
prices = combined["price"]
|
| 64 |
+
volume = combined["volume"]
|
| 65 |
+
|
| 66 |
+
# Ensure columns are sorted alphabetically for consistency
|
| 67 |
+
prices = prices.sort_index(axis=1)
|
| 68 |
+
volume = volume[prices.columns]
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
logger.info(f"Downloaded price data with shape {prices.shape}, volume data with shape {volume.shape}.")
|
| 71 |
+
return prices, volume
|
| 72 |
+
|
Advance_version/execution_engine.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 2 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
class ExecutionEngine:
|
| 8 |
+
"""
|
| 9 |
+
Models realistic slippage based on notional vs. ADV.
|
| 10 |
+
"""
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
def __init__(self, slippage_coefficient: float):
|
| 13 |
+
"""
|
| 14 |
+
:param slippage_coefficient: e.g., 0.0001 (1 bp per 0.1% ADV)
|
| 15 |
+
"""
|
| 16 |
+
self.slip_coeff = slippage_coefficient
|
| 17 |
+
|
| 18 |
+
def compute_slippage(
|
| 19 |
+
self,
|
| 20 |
+
notional: pd.Series,
|
| 21 |
+
volume: pd.Series,
|
| 22 |
+
price: pd.Series
|
| 23 |
+
) -> pd.Series:
|
| 24 |
+
"""
|
| 25 |
+
Computes slippage cost = slip_coeff * (notional / (ADV * price)).
|
| 26 |
+
:param notional: Series of absolute dollar notional traded.
|
| 27 |
+
:param volume: Series of share volume (ADV proxy).
|
| 28 |
+
:param price: Series of price to convert volume to ADV notional.
|
| 29 |
+
:return: Series of slippage costs (as fraction of capital).
|
| 30 |
+
"""
|
| 31 |
+
# ADV dollar volume
|
| 32 |
+
adv_dollar = volume * price
|
| 33 |
+
adv_dollar = adv_dollar.replace(0, np.nan).fillna(method="ffill").fillna(1e9)
|
| 34 |
+
slip = self.slip_coeff * (notional / adv_dollar)
|
| 35 |
+
return slip
|
Advance_version/kalman_hedge.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 2 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 3 |
+
from pykalman import KalmanFilter
|
| 4 |
+
import logging
|
| 5 |
+
from typing import Tuple
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 8 |
+
|
| 9 |
+
class KalmanHedge:
|
| 10 |
+
"""
|
| 11 |
+
Runs a Kalman filter with an intercept and time‐varying hedge ratio (beta).
|
| 12 |
+
Allows EM estimation of Q and R.
|
| 13 |
+
"""
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 16 |
+
self,
|
| 17 |
+
observation_series: pd.Series,
|
| 18 |
+
control_series: pd.Series,
|
| 19 |
+
initial_state_cov: np.ndarray,
|
| 20 |
+
transition_cov: np.ndarray,
|
| 21 |
+
observation_cov: float,
|
| 22 |
+
em_iterations: int = 20
|
| 23 |
+
):
|
| 24 |
+
"""
|
| 25 |
+
:param observation_series: Y_t series (e.g., prices of ticker1).
|
| 26 |
+
:param control_series: X_t series (e.g., prices of ticker2).
|
| 27 |
+
:param initial_state_cov: 2×2 covariance for [alpha, beta].
|
| 28 |
+
:param transition_cov: 2×2 process noise for [alpha, beta].
|
| 29 |
+
:param observation_cov: scalar observation noise variance.
|
| 30 |
+
:param em_iterations: number of EM iterations to refine Q & R.
|
| 31 |
+
"""
|
| 32 |
+
# 强制数据为float类型
|
| 33 |
+
self.y = observation_series.astype(float).values
|
| 34 |
+
self.x = control_series.astype(float).values
|
| 35 |
+
self.dates = observation_series.index
|
| 36 |
+
self.initial_state_cov = np.array(initial_state_cov, dtype=float)
|
| 37 |
+
self.transition_cov = np.array(transition_cov, dtype=float)
|
| 38 |
+
self.observation_cov = float(observation_cov)
|
| 39 |
+
self.em_iterations = em_iterations
|
| 40 |
+
|
| 41 |
+
# Prepare structures to store results
|
| 42 |
+
n_points = len(self.y)
|
| 43 |
+
self.alpha = np.zeros(n_points)
|
| 44 |
+
self.beta = np.zeros(n_points)
|
| 45 |
+
self.spread = np.zeros(n_points)
|
| 46 |
+
self.state_covariances = np.zeros((n_points, 2, 2))
|
| 47 |
+
|
| 48 |
+
# Build the KalmanFilter object
|
| 49 |
+
self._build_filter()
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
def _build_filter(self):
|
| 52 |
+
"""
|
| 53 |
+
Initializes a KalmanFilter with a 2D state: [alpha_t, beta_t].
|
| 54 |
+
Observation: y_t = [1, x_t] ⋅ [alpha_t, beta_t] + ε_t
|
| 55 |
+
State Evolution: [alpha_t, beta_t] = [alpha_{t-1}, beta_{t-1}] + η_t
|
| 56 |
+
"""
|
| 57 |
+
n_timesteps = len(self.y)
|
| 58 |
+
# Transition matrix: identity (random walk for alpha & beta)
|
| 59 |
+
transition_matrices = np.eye(2, dtype=float)
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
# Observation matrices: time-varying (每步都不同)
|
| 62 |
+
observation_matrices = np.zeros((n_timesteps, 1, 2), dtype=float)
|
| 63 |
+
for t in range(n_timesteps):
|
| 64 |
+
observation_matrices[t, 0, 0] = 1.0
|
| 65 |
+
observation_matrices[t, 0, 1] = self.x[t]
|
| 66 |
+
|
| 67 |
+
initial_state_mean = np.zeros(2, dtype=float)
|
| 68 |
+
initial_state_covariance = self.initial_state_cov
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
self.kf = KalmanFilter(
|
| 71 |
+
transition_matrices=transition_matrices,
|
| 72 |
+
observation_matrices=observation_matrices,
|
| 73 |
+
initial_state_mean=initial_state_mean,
|
| 74 |
+
initial_state_covariance=initial_state_covariance,
|
| 75 |
+
transition_covariance=self.transition_cov,
|
| 76 |
+
observation_covariance=self.observation_cov
|
| 77 |
+
)
|
| 78 |
+
|
| 79 |
+
# Run EM to refine Q & R
|
| 80 |
+
try:
|
| 81 |
+
self.kf = self.kf.em(
|
| 82 |
+
X=None,
|
| 83 |
+
n_iter=self.em_iterations,
|
| 84 |
+
em_vars=["transition_covariance", "observation_covariance"]
|
| 85 |
+
)
|
| 86 |
+
logger.info("Kalman EM converged: Q and R estimated.")
|
| 87 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 88 |
+
logger.warning(f"Kalman EM failed or was skipped: {e}")
|
| 89 |
+
|
| 90 |
+
def run_filter(self):
|
| 91 |
+
"""
|
| 92 |
+
Kalman filter main loop (predict-update per time step).
|
| 93 |
+
At each step t:
|
| 94 |
+
1. Predict next state, using transition_matrix。
|
| 95 |
+
2. Compute spread_t = y_t - [alpha_{t|t-1} + beta_{t|t-1} * x_t]
|
| 96 |
+
3. Update with observation y_t and correct observation_matrix.
|
| 97 |
+
"""
|
| 98 |
+
n = len(self.y)
|
| 99 |
+
state_mean = np.zeros((n, 2), dtype=float)
|
| 100 |
+
state_cov = np.zeros((n, 2, 2), dtype=float)
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
state_mean[0] = self.kf.initial_state_mean
|
| 103 |
+
state_cov[0] = self.kf.initial_state_covariance
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
for t in range(1, n):
|
| 106 |
+
# 预测(仅给出本步观测矩阵!——很重要)
|
| 107 |
+
mean_pred, cov_pred = self.kf.filter_update(
|
| 108 |
+
filtered_state_mean=state_mean[t - 1],
|
| 109 |
+
filtered_state_covariance=state_cov[t - 1],
|
| 110 |
+
observation=None,
|
| 111 |
+
# 必须指定 observation_matrix,每步都要
|
| 112 |
+
observation_matrix=self.kf.observation_matrices[t]
|
| 113 |
+
)
|
| 114 |
+
|
| 115 |
+
# 用预测state计算spread
|
| 116 |
+
a_pred, b_pred = mean_pred
|
| 117 |
+
self.spread[t] = self.y[t] - (a_pred + b_pred * self.x[t])
|
| 118 |
+
|
| 119 |
+
# 更新
|
| 120 |
+
mean_filt, cov_filt = self.kf.filter_update(
|
| 121 |
+
filtered_state_mean=mean_pred,
|
| 122 |
+
filtered_state_covariance=cov_pred,
|
| 123 |
+
observation=self.y[t],
|
| 124 |
+
observation_matrix=self.kf.observation_matrices[t]
|
| 125 |
+
)
|
| 126 |
+
state_mean[t] = mean_filt
|
| 127 |
+
state_cov[t] = cov_filt
|
| 128 |
+
self.alpha[t] = mean_filt[0]
|
| 129 |
+
self.beta[t] = mean_filt[1]
|
| 130 |
+
self.state_covariances[t] = cov_filt
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
# 初始点
|
| 133 |
+
self.spread[0] = self.y[0] - (state_mean[0][0] + state_mean[0][1] * self.x[0])
|
| 134 |
+
self.alpha[0] = state_mean[0][0]
|
| 135 |
+
self.beta[0] = state_mean[0][1]
|
| 136 |
+
self.state_covariances[0] = state_cov[0]
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
result = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 139 |
+
"alpha": self.alpha,
|
| 140 |
+
"beta": self.beta,
|
| 141 |
+
"spread": self.spread
|
| 142 |
+
}, index=self.dates)
|
| 143 |
+
logger.info("Kalman filter run completed.")
|
| 144 |
+
return result
|
Advance_version/logger.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import logging
|
| 2 |
+
import sys
|
| 3 |
+
|
| 4 |
+
def setup_logger(name: str) -> logging.Logger:
|
| 5 |
+
"""
|
| 6 |
+
Sets up a root logger with INFO level, console handler,
|
| 7 |
+
and a consistent formatting style.
|
| 8 |
+
"""
|
| 9 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(name)
|
| 10 |
+
logger.setLevel(logging.INFO)
|
| 11 |
+
if not logger.handlers:
|
| 12 |
+
ch = logging.StreamHandler(sys.stdout)
|
| 13 |
+
ch.setLevel(logging.INFO)
|
| 14 |
+
formatter = logging.Formatter(
|
| 15 |
+
"%(asctime)s | %(name)s | %(levelname)s | %(message)s",
|
| 16 |
+
datefmt="%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S"
|
| 17 |
+
)
|
| 18 |
+
ch.setFormatter(formatter)
|
| 19 |
+
logger.addHandler(ch)
|
| 20 |
+
return logger
|
Advance_version/pair_selector.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 2 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 3 |
+
import itertools
|
| 4 |
+
import logging
|
| 5 |
+
from utils import cluster_universe, rolling_cointegration_test, half_life
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 8 |
+
|
| 9 |
+
class PairSelector:
|
| 10 |
+
"""
|
| 11 |
+
From a universe of assets, cluster similar ones, then within each cluster
|
| 12 |
+
run rolling cointegration tests. For stable pairs, compute static hedge ratio
|
| 13 |
+
via OLS and half‐life of the spread.
|
| 14 |
+
"""
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 17 |
+
self,
|
| 18 |
+
prices: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 19 |
+
cluster_size: int = 20,
|
| 20 |
+
coint_pval_threshold: float = 0.05,
|
| 21 |
+
rolling_window: int = 252,
|
| 22 |
+
rolling_step: int = 63,
|
| 23 |
+
min_valid_periods: int = 2
|
| 24 |
+
):
|
| 25 |
+
"""
|
| 26 |
+
:param prices: DataFrame of asset prices (aligned), columns = tickers.
|
| 27 |
+
"""
|
| 28 |
+
self.prices = prices
|
| 29 |
+
self.returns = prices.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 30 |
+
self.cluster_size = cluster_size
|
| 31 |
+
self.pval_threshold = coint_pval_threshold
|
| 32 |
+
self.rolling_window = rolling_window
|
| 33 |
+
self.rolling_step = rolling_step
|
| 34 |
+
self.min_valid_periods = min_valid_periods
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
def select_pairs(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 37 |
+
"""
|
| 38 |
+
Returns a DataFrame with columns: [ticker1, ticker2, beta_ols, half_life_days].
|
| 39 |
+
Only includes pairs that pass the rolling cointegration test.
|
| 40 |
+
"""
|
| 41 |
+
# 1) Cluster the universe
|
| 42 |
+
clusters = cluster_universe(self.returns, self.cluster_size)
|
| 43 |
+
|
| 44 |
+
selected = []
|
| 45 |
+
for cluster_id, tickers in clusters.items():
|
| 46 |
+
if len(tickers) < 2:
|
| 47 |
+
continue
|
| 48 |
+
logger.info(f"Testing cluster {cluster_id} with {len(tickers)} tickers.")
|
| 49 |
+
# For each unique pair in that cluster:
|
| 50 |
+
for t1, t2 in itertools.combinations(tickers, 2):
|
| 51 |
+
s1 = self.prices[t1]
|
| 52 |
+
s2 = self.prices[t2]
|
| 53 |
+
# 2) Rolling cointegration test
|
| 54 |
+
try:
|
| 55 |
+
is_coint = rolling_cointegration_test(
|
| 56 |
+
s1, s2,
|
| 57 |
+
window=self.rolling_window,
|
| 58 |
+
step=self.rolling_step,
|
| 59 |
+
pval_threshold=self.pval_threshold,
|
| 60 |
+
min_valid_periods=self.min_valid_periods
|
| 61 |
+
)
|
| 62 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 63 |
+
logger.warning(f"Cointegration test failed for {t1}-{t2}: {e}")
|
| 64 |
+
continue
|
| 65 |
+
|
| 66 |
+
if not is_coint:
|
| 67 |
+
continue
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
# 3) Compute static OLS hedge ratio on full period
|
| 70 |
+
# Solve s1 = alpha + beta*s2 + eps
|
| 71 |
+
X = np.vstack([np.ones(len(s2)), s2.values]).T
|
| 72 |
+
y = s1.values
|
| 73 |
+
ols_beta = np.linalg.lstsq(X, y, rcond=None)[0][1]
|
| 74 |
+
|
| 75 |
+
# 4) Compute half-life of spread
|
| 76 |
+
spread = s1 - ols_beta * s2
|
| 77 |
+
hl = half_life(spread)
|
| 78 |
+
|
| 79 |
+
# 5) Save if half-life is finite and reasonable (< window)
|
| 80 |
+
if np.isfinite(hl) and hl > 0 and hl < self.rolling_window:
|
| 81 |
+
selected.append({
|
| 82 |
+
"ticker1": t1,
|
| 83 |
+
"ticker2": t2,
|
| 84 |
+
"beta_ols": ols_beta,
|
| 85 |
+
"half_life": hl
|
| 86 |
+
})
|
| 87 |
+
logger.info(f"Selected pair {t1}-{t2}: beta={ols_beta:.4f}, half-life={hl:.1f} days.")
|
| 88 |
+
if not selected:
|
| 89 |
+
logger.warning("No cointegrated pairs found in the universe.")
|
| 90 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker1", "ticker2", "beta_ols", "half_life"])
|
| 91 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(selected)
|
Advance_version/portfolio_optimizer.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 2 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 3 |
+
import cvxpy as cp
|
| 4 |
+
import logging
|
| 5 |
+
|
| 6 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
class PortfolioOptimizer:
|
| 9 |
+
"""
|
| 10 |
+
Given a DataFrame of pair‐level returns (columns = pair names, rows = dates),
|
| 11 |
+
solves a minimum‐variance allocation (or any convex objective).
|
| 12 |
+
"""
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 15 |
+
self,
|
| 16 |
+
pair_returns: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 17 |
+
min_weight: float = 0.0,
|
| 18 |
+
max_weight: float = 0.1
|
| 19 |
+
):
|
| 20 |
+
"""
|
| 21 |
+
:param pair_returns: DataFrame (T×N) of returns for N pairs.
|
| 22 |
+
:param min_weight: lower bound for each weight.
|
| 23 |
+
:param max_weight: upper bound for each weight.
|
| 24 |
+
"""
|
| 25 |
+
self.returns = pair_returns.dropna(how="all")
|
| 26 |
+
self.N = self.returns.shape[1]
|
| 27 |
+
self.min_w = min_weight
|
| 28 |
+
self.max_w = max_weight
|
| 29 |
+
|
| 30 |
+
def min_variance(self) -> pd.Series:
|
| 31 |
+
"""
|
| 32 |
+
Solve: minimize wᵀ Σ w subject to ∑w = 1, and min_w ≤ w_i ≤ max_w.
|
| 33 |
+
Returns a Series of weights indexed by pair names.
|
| 34 |
+
"""
|
| 35 |
+
cov = self.returns.cov().values
|
| 36 |
+
cov += np.eye(self.N) * 1e-6
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
w = cp.Variable(self.N)
|
| 39 |
+
objective = cp.Minimize(cp.quad_form(w, cov))
|
| 40 |
+
constraints = [
|
| 41 |
+
cp.sum(w) == 1,
|
| 42 |
+
w >= self.min_w,
|
| 43 |
+
w <= self.max_w
|
| 44 |
+
]
|
| 45 |
+
prob = cp.Problem(objective, constraints)
|
| 46 |
+
prob.solve(solver=cp.OSQP, verbose=False)
|
| 47 |
+
|
| 48 |
+
if w.value is None:
|
| 49 |
+
logger.error("Portfolio optimization failed.")
|
| 50 |
+
# Fallback: equal weights
|
| 51 |
+
w_opt = np.ones(self.N) / self.N
|
| 52 |
+
else:
|
| 53 |
+
w_opt = w.value
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
weights = pd.Series(w_opt, index=self.returns.columns)
|
| 56 |
+
logger.info(f"Min‐variance weights computed: {weights.to_dict()}")
|
| 57 |
+
return weights
|
Advance_version/risk_engine.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 2 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
from scipy.stats import norm
|
| 5 |
+
|
| 6 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
class RiskEngine:
|
| 9 |
+
"""
|
| 10 |
+
Computes risk metrics for a strategy or portfolio of pair returns.
|
| 11 |
+
Includes VaR (historical and parametric), max drawdown, and
|
| 12 |
+
placeholder for factor neutrality/regression.
|
| 13 |
+
"""
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
def __init__(self, returns: pd.Series, config: dict):
|
| 16 |
+
"""
|
| 17 |
+
:param returns: Series of daily strategy returns.
|
| 18 |
+
:param config: dict under key 'risk' from config.yaml.
|
| 19 |
+
"""
|
| 20 |
+
self.returns = returns.dropna()
|
| 21 |
+
self.daily_var_window = config["daily_var_window"]
|
| 22 |
+
self.var_conf = config["var_confidence"]
|
| 23 |
+
self.max_dd_limit = config["max_drawdown_limit"]
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
def historical_var(self) -> float:
|
| 26 |
+
"""
|
| 27 |
+
Historical VaR at confidence level.
|
| 28 |
+
"""
|
| 29 |
+
window = min(self.daily_var_window, len(self.returns))
|
| 30 |
+
hist = self.returns.tail(window)
|
| 31 |
+
var_h = np.percentile(hist, (1 - self.var_conf) * 100)
|
| 32 |
+
logger.info(f"Historical VaR (window={window}, conf={self.var_conf}) = {var_h:.4%}")
|
| 33 |
+
return var_h
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
def parametric_var(self) -> float:
|
| 36 |
+
"""
|
| 37 |
+
Parametric VaR assuming normality.
|
| 38 |
+
"""
|
| 39 |
+
mean = self.returns.mean()
|
| 40 |
+
std = self.returns.std()
|
| 41 |
+
var_p = mean + std * norm.ppf(1 - self.var_conf)
|
| 42 |
+
logger.info(f"Parametric VaR (conf={self.var_conf}) = {var_p:.4%}")
|
| 43 |
+
return var_p
|
| 44 |
+
|
| 45 |
+
def max_drawdown(self) -> float:
|
| 46 |
+
"""
|
| 47 |
+
Compute maximum drawdown.
|
| 48 |
+
"""
|
| 49 |
+
cum = (1 + self.returns).cumprod()
|
| 50 |
+
peak = cum.cummax()
|
| 51 |
+
drawdown = (cum - peak) / peak
|
| 52 |
+
max_dd = drawdown.min()
|
| 53 |
+
logger.info(f"Maximum drawdown = {max_dd:.4%}")
|
| 54 |
+
return max_dd
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
def check_hard_limits(self) -> dict:
|
| 57 |
+
"""
|
| 58 |
+
Checks if current drawdown or VaR breaches the configured limits.
|
| 59 |
+
"""
|
| 60 |
+
dd = self.max_drawdown()
|
| 61 |
+
var_h = self.historical_var()
|
| 62 |
+
alerts = {}
|
| 63 |
+
if abs(dd) > self.max_dd_limit:
|
| 64 |
+
alerts["drawdown_breach"] = dd
|
| 65 |
+
if var_h < -self.max_dd_limit:
|
| 66 |
+
alerts["var_breach"] = var_h
|
| 67 |
+
return alerts
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
def stress_test_returns(self, stress_scenario: pd.Series) -> float:
|
| 70 |
+
"""
|
| 71 |
+
Given a stress scenario of returns (Series aligned by date or simply
|
| 72 |
+
a vector of % shocks), compute expected P&L under that stress.
|
| 73 |
+
For simplicity, sum elementwise product with strategy exposure = 1.
|
| 74 |
+
"""
|
| 75 |
+
# This is a placeholder: user should supply a scenario vector.
|
| 76 |
+
pnl = (self.returns * stress_scenario).sum()
|
| 77 |
+
logger.info(f"Stress test scenario P&L = {pnl:.4f}")
|
| 78 |
+
return pnl
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
def factor_neutrality(self, factor_returns: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
|
| 81 |
+
"""
|
| 82 |
+
Regress strategy returns on supplied factor returns to compute
|
| 83 |
+
betas and R². Returns a dict of factor exposures.
|
| 84 |
+
"""
|
| 85 |
+
import statsmodels.api as sm
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
X = sm.add_constant(factor_returns.loc[self.returns.index])
|
| 88 |
+
y = self.returns
|
| 89 |
+
model = sm.OLS(y, X).fit()
|
| 90 |
+
exposures = model.params.to_dict()
|
| 91 |
+
r2 = model.rsquared
|
| 92 |
+
logger.info(f"Factor regression R² = {r2:.4f}, exposures = {exposures}")
|
| 93 |
+
return {"exposures": exposures, "r2": r2}
|
Advance_version/run_backtest.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import yaml
|
| 2 |
+
import os
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 5 |
+
from logger import setup_logger
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
# Import modules
|
| 8 |
+
from data_loader import DataLoader
|
| 9 |
+
from pair_selector import PairSelector
|
| 10 |
+
from kalman_hedge import KalmanHedge
|
| 11 |
+
from signal_generator import SignalGenerator
|
| 12 |
+
from backtester import Backtester
|
| 13 |
+
from risk_engine import RiskEngine
|
| 14 |
+
from portfolio_optimizer import PortfolioOptimizer
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
# Set up root logger
|
| 17 |
+
logger = setup_logger("PairTradingStrategy")
|
| 18 |
+
|
| 19 |
+
def load_config(path: str) -> dict:
|
| 20 |
+
with open(path, "r") as f:
|
| 21 |
+
cfg = yaml.safe_load(f)
|
| 22 |
+
return cfg
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
+
def calc_portfolio_metrics(returns):
|
| 25 |
+
returns = returns.fillna(0)
|
| 26 |
+
ann_return = (1 + returns).prod() ** (252 / len(returns)) - 1
|
| 27 |
+
ann_vol = returns.std() * (252 ** 0.5)
|
| 28 |
+
sharpe = ann_return / ann_vol if ann_vol != 0 else float("nan")
|
| 29 |
+
cum = (1 + returns).cumprod()
|
| 30 |
+
peak = cum.cummax()
|
| 31 |
+
drawdown = (cum - peak) / peak
|
| 32 |
+
max_dd = drawdown.min()
|
| 33 |
+
return {
|
| 34 |
+
"annual_return": ann_return,
|
| 35 |
+
"annual_vol": ann_vol,
|
| 36 |
+
"sharpe": sharpe,
|
| 37 |
+
"max_drawdown": max_dd,
|
| 38 |
+
}
|
| 39 |
+
|
| 40 |
+
def main():
|
| 41 |
+
# 1) Load configuration
|
| 42 |
+
config_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../config.yaml")
|
| 43 |
+
cfg = load_config(config_path)
|
| 44 |
+
logger.info("Configuration loaded.")
|
| 45 |
+
|
| 46 |
+
# 2) Fetch data
|
| 47 |
+
data_cfg = cfg["data"]
|
| 48 |
+
dl = DataLoader(
|
| 49 |
+
tickers=data_cfg["tickers"],
|
| 50 |
+
start_date=data_cfg["start_date"],
|
| 51 |
+
end_date=data_cfg["end_date"],
|
| 52 |
+
interval=data_cfg["interval"]
|
| 53 |
+
)
|
| 54 |
+
prices, volume = dl.fetch_data()
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
# 3) Select pairs
|
| 57 |
+
ps_cfg = cfg["pair_selector"]
|
| 58 |
+
pair_selector = PairSelector(
|
| 59 |
+
prices=prices,
|
| 60 |
+
cluster_size=ps_cfg["cluster_size"],
|
| 61 |
+
coint_pval_threshold=ps_cfg["coint_pval_threshold"],
|
| 62 |
+
rolling_window=ps_cfg["rolling_window"],
|
| 63 |
+
rolling_step=ps_cfg["rolling_step"],
|
| 64 |
+
min_valid_periods=ps_cfg["min_valid_periods"]
|
| 65 |
+
)
|
| 66 |
+
pairs_df = pair_selector.select_pairs()
|
| 67 |
+
if pairs_df.empty:
|
| 68 |
+
logger.error("No suitable pairs found. Exiting.")
|
| 69 |
+
return
|
| 70 |
+
logger.info(f"Number of selected pairs: {len(pairs_df)}")
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
# 4) For each selected pair, run Kalman hedge, generate signals, backtest
|
| 73 |
+
all_pair_returns = {}
|
| 74 |
+
results_summary = []
|
| 75 |
+
for idx, row in pairs_df.iterrows():
|
| 76 |
+
t1 = row["ticker1"]
|
| 77 |
+
t2 = row["ticker2"]
|
| 78 |
+
logger.info(f"Processing pair {t1}-{t2}.")
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
s1 = prices[t1]
|
| 81 |
+
s2 = prices[t2]
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
# 4a) Kalman hedge
|
| 84 |
+
km_cfg = cfg["kalman"]
|
| 85 |
+
kh = KalmanHedge(
|
| 86 |
+
observation_series=s1,
|
| 87 |
+
control_series=s2,
|
| 88 |
+
initial_state_cov=km_cfg["initial_state_cov"],
|
| 89 |
+
transition_cov=km_cfg["transition_cov"],
|
| 90 |
+
observation_cov=km_cfg["observation_cov"],
|
| 91 |
+
em_iterations=km_cfg["em_iterations"]
|
| 92 |
+
)
|
| 93 |
+
kalman_df = kh.run_filter()
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
# 4b) Signal generation
|
| 96 |
+
sig_cfg = cfg["signal"]
|
| 97 |
+
sg = SignalGenerator(
|
| 98 |
+
price1=s1,
|
| 99 |
+
price2=s2,
|
| 100 |
+
kalman_df=kalman_df,
|
| 101 |
+
config=sig_cfg
|
| 102 |
+
)
|
| 103 |
+
trade_df = sg.generate(costs=cfg["costs"], volume=volume[[t1, t2]])
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
# 4c) Backtest
|
| 106 |
+
bt = Backtester(
|
| 107 |
+
trade_df=trade_df,
|
| 108 |
+
costs=cfg["costs"],
|
| 109 |
+
volume=volume[[t1, t2]],
|
| 110 |
+
ticker1=t1,
|
| 111 |
+
ticker2=t2,
|
| 112 |
+
)
|
| 113 |
+
bt_results = bt.run()
|
| 114 |
+
metrics = bt.performance_metrics(bt_results)
|
| 115 |
+
logger.info(f"Pair {t1}-{t2} metrics: {metrics}")
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
# Store returns series for portfolio optimization
|
| 118 |
+
all_pair_returns[f"{t1}/{t2}"] = bt_results["strategy_return"]
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
# Summarize
|
| 121 |
+
results_summary.append({
|
| 122 |
+
"pair": f"{t1}/{t2}",
|
| 123 |
+
**metrics,
|
| 124 |
+
"half_life": row["half_life"]
|
| 125 |
+
})
|
| 126 |
+
|
| 127 |
+
# 5) Aggregate pair returns into DataFrame
|
| 128 |
+
pair_returns_df = (
|
| 129 |
+
pd.DataFrame(all_pair_returns)
|
| 130 |
+
.dropna(how="all")
|
| 131 |
+
)
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
# 6) Save pair_summary.csv
|
| 134 |
+
summary_df = pd.DataFrame(results_summary)
|
| 135 |
+
output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../output")
|
| 136 |
+
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
|
| 137 |
+
summary_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "pair_summary.csv")
|
| 138 |
+
summary_df.to_csv(summary_path, index=False)
|
| 139 |
+
logger.info(f"Saved pair summary to {summary_path}.")
|
| 140 |
+
|
| 141 |
+
# ====== 选取 Sharpe > 0 的配对 ======
|
| 142 |
+
selected_pairs = summary_df[summary_df["sharpe"] > 0]["pair"].tolist()
|
| 143 |
+
if not selected_pairs:
|
| 144 |
+
logger.warning("No pairs with Sharpe > 0 were found. Portfolio will not be constructed.")
|
| 145 |
+
return
|
| 146 |
+
pair_returns_df_selected = pair_returns_df[selected_pairs]
|
| 147 |
+
logger.info(f"Selected pairs with Sharpe > 0: {selected_pairs}")
|
| 148 |
+
|
| 149 |
+
# 7) Portfolio optimization只用Sharpe>0的pair
|
| 150 |
+
port_cfg = cfg["portfolio"]
|
| 151 |
+
po = PortfolioOptimizer(
|
| 152 |
+
pair_returns=pair_returns_df_selected,
|
| 153 |
+
min_weight=port_cfg["min_weight"],
|
| 154 |
+
max_weight=port_cfg["max_weight"]
|
| 155 |
+
)
|
| 156 |
+
weights = po.min_variance()
|
| 157 |
+
|
| 158 |
+
# 8) Compute portfolio P&L
|
| 159 |
+
portfolio_ret = (pair_returns_df_selected * weights).sum(axis=1)
|
| 160 |
+
re = RiskEngine(returns=portfolio_ret, config=cfg["risk"])
|
| 161 |
+
var_h = re.historical_var()
|
| 162 |
+
var_p = re.parametric_var()
|
| 163 |
+
max_dd = re.max_drawdown()
|
| 164 |
+
logger.info(f"Portfolio VaR (hist) = {var_h:.4%}, (param) = {var_p:.4%}, max DD = {max_dd:.4%}")
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
# 9) 计算并输出整体组合绩效
|
| 167 |
+
portfolio_metrics = calc_portfolio_metrics(portfolio_ret)
|
| 168 |
+
logger.info(
|
| 169 |
+
f"Portfolio annual_return={portfolio_metrics['annual_return']:.4%}, "
|
| 170 |
+
f"annual_vol={portfolio_metrics['annual_vol']:.4%}, "
|
| 171 |
+
f"sharpe={portfolio_metrics['sharpe']:.2f}, "
|
| 172 |
+
f"max_drawdown={portfolio_metrics['max_drawdown']:.2%}"
|
| 173 |
+
)
|
| 174 |
+
|
| 175 |
+
# 10) 保存 portfolio_weights.csv 和 portfolio_metrics.csv
|
| 176 |
+
weights_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "portfolio_weights.csv")
|
| 177 |
+
weights.to_csv(weights_path, header=True)
|
| 178 |
+
logger.info(f"Saved portfolio weights to {weights_path}.")
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
pd.DataFrame([portfolio_metrics]).to_csv(
|
| 181 |
+
os.path.join(output_dir, "portfolio_metrics.csv"),
|
| 182 |
+
index=False
|
| 183 |
+
)
|
| 184 |
+
logger.info(f"Saved portfolio metrics to {os.path.join(output_dir, 'portfolio_metrics.csv')}.")
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
logger.info("Backtest pipeline completed successfully.")
|
| 187 |
+
|
| 188 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 189 |
+
main()
|
Advance_version/scripts/run_backtest.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import yaml
|
| 2 |
+
import os
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
from logger import setup_logger
|
| 5 |
+
|
| 6 |
+
# Import modules
|
| 7 |
+
from data_loader import DataLoader
|
| 8 |
+
from pair_selector import PairSelector
|
| 9 |
+
from kalman_hedge import KalmanHedge
|
| 10 |
+
from signal_generator import SignalGenerator
|
| 11 |
+
from backtester import Backtester
|
| 12 |
+
from risk_engine import RiskEngine
|
| 13 |
+
from portfolio_optimizer import PortfolioOptimizer
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
# Set up root logger
|
| 16 |
+
logger = setup_logger("PairTradingStrategy")
|
| 17 |
+
|
| 18 |
+
def load_config(path: str) -> dict:
|
| 19 |
+
with open(path, "r") as f:
|
| 20 |
+
cfg = yaml.safe_load(f)
|
| 21 |
+
return cfg
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
def main():
|
| 24 |
+
# 1) Load configuration
|
| 25 |
+
config_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../config.yaml")
|
| 26 |
+
cfg = load_config(config_path)
|
| 27 |
+
logger.info("Configuration loaded.")
|
| 28 |
+
|
| 29 |
+
# 2) Fetch data
|
| 30 |
+
data_cfg = cfg["data"]
|
| 31 |
+
dl = DataLoader(
|
| 32 |
+
tickers=data_cfg["tickers"],
|
| 33 |
+
start_date=data_cfg["start_date"],
|
| 34 |
+
end_date=data_cfg["end_date"],
|
| 35 |
+
interval=data_cfg["interval"]
|
| 36 |
+
)
|
| 37 |
+
prices, volume = dl.fetch_data()
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
# 3) Select pairs
|
| 40 |
+
ps_cfg = cfg["pair_selector"]
|
| 41 |
+
pair_selector = PairSelector(
|
| 42 |
+
prices=prices,
|
| 43 |
+
cluster_size=ps_cfg["cluster_size"],
|
| 44 |
+
coint_pval_threshold=ps_cfg["coint_pval_threshold"],
|
| 45 |
+
rolling_window=ps_cfg["rolling_window"],
|
| 46 |
+
rolling_step=ps_cfg["rolling_step"],
|
| 47 |
+
min_valid_periods=ps_cfg["min_valid_periods"]
|
| 48 |
+
)
|
| 49 |
+
pairs_df = pair_selector.select_pairs()
|
| 50 |
+
if pairs_df.empty:
|
| 51 |
+
logger.error("No suitable pairs found. Exiting.")
|
| 52 |
+
return
|
| 53 |
+
logger.info(f"Number of selected pairs: {len(pairs_df)}")
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
# 4) For each selected pair, run Kalman hedge, generate signals, backtest
|
| 56 |
+
all_pair_returns = {}
|
| 57 |
+
results_summary = []
|
| 58 |
+
for idx, row in pairs_df.iterrows():
|
| 59 |
+
t1 = row["ticker1"]
|
| 60 |
+
t2 = row["ticker2"]
|
| 61 |
+
logger.info(f"Processing pair {t1}-{t2}.")
|
| 62 |
+
|
| 63 |
+
s1 = prices[t1]
|
| 64 |
+
s2 = prices[t2]
|
| 65 |
+
|
| 66 |
+
# 4a) Kalman hedge
|
| 67 |
+
km_cfg = cfg["kalman"]
|
| 68 |
+
kh = KalmanHedge(
|
| 69 |
+
observation_series=s1,
|
| 70 |
+
control_series=s2,
|
| 71 |
+
initial_state_cov=km_cfg["initial_state_cov"],
|
| 72 |
+
transition_cov=km_cfg["transition_cov"],
|
| 73 |
+
observation_cov=km_cfg["observation_cov"],
|
| 74 |
+
em_iterations=km_cfg["em_iterations"]
|
| 75 |
+
)
|
| 76 |
+
kalman_df = kh.run_filter()
|
| 77 |
+
|
| 78 |
+
# 4b) Signal generation
|
| 79 |
+
sig_cfg = cfg["signal"]
|
| 80 |
+
sg = SignalGenerator(
|
| 81 |
+
price1=s1,
|
| 82 |
+
price2=s2,
|
| 83 |
+
kalman_df=kalman_df,
|
| 84 |
+
config=sig_cfg
|
| 85 |
+
)
|
| 86 |
+
trade_df = sg.generate(costs=cfg["costs"], volume=volume[[t1, t2]])
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
# 4c) Backtest
|
| 89 |
+
bt = Backtester(
|
| 90 |
+
trade_df=trade_df.rename(columns={"pos1": t1 + "_pos", "pos2": t2 + "_pos",
|
| 91 |
+
"price1": t1 + "_price", "price2": t2 + "_price"}),
|
| 92 |
+
costs=cfg["costs"],
|
| 93 |
+
volume=volume[[t1, t2]].rename(columns={t1: t1 + "_vol", t2: t2 + "_vol"})
|
| 94 |
+
)
|
| 95 |
+
bt_results = bt.run()
|
| 96 |
+
metrics = bt.performance_metrics(bt_results)
|
| 97 |
+
logger.info(f"Pair {t1}-{t2} metrics: {metrics}")
|
| 98 |
+
|
| 99 |
+
# Store returns series for portfolio optimization
|
| 100 |
+
all_pair_returns[f"{t1}/{t2}"] = bt_results["strategy_return"]
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
# Summarize
|
| 103 |
+
results_summary.append({
|
| 104 |
+
"pair": f"{t1}/{t2}",
|
| 105 |
+
**metrics,
|
| 106 |
+
"half_life": row["half_life"]
|
| 107 |
+
})
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
# 5) Aggregate pair returns into DataFrame
|
| 110 |
+
pair_returns_df = (
|
| 111 |
+
pd.DataFrame(all_pair_returns)
|
| 112 |
+
.dropna(how="all")
|
| 113 |
+
)
|
| 114 |
+
|
| 115 |
+
# 6) Portfolio optimization
|
| 116 |
+
port_cfg = cfg["portfolio"]
|
| 117 |
+
po = PortfolioOptimizer(
|
| 118 |
+
pair_returns=pair_returns_df,
|
| 119 |
+
min_weight=port_cfg["min_weight"],
|
| 120 |
+
max_weight=port_cfg["max_weight"]
|
| 121 |
+
)
|
| 122 |
+
weights = po.min_variance()
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
# 7) Compute portfolio P&L
|
| 125 |
+
portfolio_ret = (pair_returns_df * weights).sum(axis=1)
|
| 126 |
+
re = RiskEngine(returns=portfolio_ret, config=cfg["risk"])
|
| 127 |
+
var_h = re.historical_var()
|
| 128 |
+
var_p = re.parametric_var()
|
| 129 |
+
max_dd = re.max_drawdown()
|
| 130 |
+
logger.info(f"Portfolio VaR (hist) = {var_h:.4%}, (param) = {var_p:.4%}, max DD = {max_dd:.4%}")
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
# 8) Save summary to CSV
|
| 133 |
+
summary_df = pd.DataFrame(results_summary)
|
| 134 |
+
output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../output")
|
| 135 |
+
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
|
| 136 |
+
summary_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "pair_summary.csv")
|
| 137 |
+
summary_df.to_csv(summary_path, index=False)
|
| 138 |
+
logger.info(f"Saved pair summary to {summary_path}.")
|
| 139 |
+
|
| 140 |
+
weights_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "portfolio_weights.csv")
|
| 141 |
+
weights.to_csv(weights_path, header=True)
|
| 142 |
+
logger.info(f"Saved portfolio weights to {weights_path}.")
|
| 143 |
+
|
| 144 |
+
logger.info("Backtest pipeline completed successfully.")
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 147 |
+
main()
|
Advance_version/signal_generator.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 2 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 3 |
+
import logging
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
class SignalGenerator:
|
| 8 |
+
"""
|
| 9 |
+
Given spread & dynamic betas, computes z-scores, applies adaptive thresholds,
|
| 10 |
+
volatility & momentum filters, and outputs daily position signals (signed, float).
|
| 11 |
+
"""
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 14 |
+
self,
|
| 15 |
+
price1: pd.Series,
|
| 16 |
+
price2: pd.Series,
|
| 17 |
+
kalman_df: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 18 |
+
config: dict
|
| 19 |
+
):
|
| 20 |
+
"""
|
| 21 |
+
:param price1: Series of prices for ticker1.
|
| 22 |
+
:param price2: Series of prices for ticker2.
|
| 23 |
+
:param kalman_df: DataFrame with columns ['alpha', 'beta', 'spread'] indexed by date.
|
| 24 |
+
:param config: dictionary under key 'signal' from config.yaml.
|
| 25 |
+
"""
|
| 26 |
+
self.price1 = price1
|
| 27 |
+
self.price2 = price2
|
| 28 |
+
self.alpha = kalman_df["alpha"]
|
| 29 |
+
self.beta = kalman_df["beta"]
|
| 30 |
+
self.spread = kalman_df["spread"]
|
| 31 |
+
self.dates = kalman_df.index
|
| 32 |
+
self.z_window = config["zscore_window"]
|
| 33 |
+
self.entry_z = config["entry_z"]
|
| 34 |
+
self.exit_z = config["exit_z"]
|
| 35 |
+
self.target_vol = config["target_vol"]
|
| 36 |
+
self.min_vol_pct = config["min_vol_percentile"]
|
| 37 |
+
self.momentum_filter = config["momentum_filter"]
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
# Placeholder for signals & positions
|
| 40 |
+
self.zscore = None
|
| 41 |
+
self.entry_thresh = None
|
| 42 |
+
self.exit_thresh = None
|
| 43 |
+
self.positions = None # will store a DataFrame with columns ['pos1', 'pos2']
|
| 44 |
+
|
| 45 |
+
def generate(self, costs: dict, volume: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 46 |
+
"""
|
| 47 |
+
1. Compute rolling z-score of spread.
|
| 48 |
+
2. Compute dynamic entry/exit thresholds (scaled by rolling vol).
|
| 49 |
+
3. Apply volatility & momentum filters.
|
| 50 |
+
4. Compute volatility‐normalized position sizing:
|
| 51 |
+
pos1 = +1 (long) or -1 (short) * (target_vol / spread_vol)
|
| 52 |
+
pos2 = -beta * pos1
|
| 53 |
+
5. Return DataFrame with columns ['pos1', 'pos2'], indexed by date.
|
| 54 |
+
"""
|
| 55 |
+
n = len(self.spread)
|
| 56 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(index=self.dates)
|
| 57 |
+
# 1) Rolling mean & std of spread
|
| 58 |
+
rolling_mean = self.spread.rolling(self.z_window).mean()
|
| 59 |
+
rolling_std = self.spread.rolling(self.z_window).std()
|
| 60 |
+
self.zscore = (self.spread - rolling_mean) / rolling_std
|
| 61 |
+
df["zscore"] = self.zscore
|
| 62 |
+
|
| 63 |
+
# 2) Dynamic thresholds
|
| 64 |
+
self.entry_thresh = self.entry_z * rolling_std
|
| 65 |
+
self.exit_thresh = self.exit_z * rolling_std
|
| 66 |
+
df["entry_thresh"] = self.entry_thresh
|
| 67 |
+
df["exit_thresh"] = self.exit_thresh
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
# 3) Volatility filter: compute rolling volatility percentile rank
|
| 70 |
+
vol_rank = rolling_std.rank(pct=True) * 100
|
| 71 |
+
df["vol_rank"] = vol_rank
|
| 72 |
+
|
| 73 |
+
# 4) Momentum filter: Δspread
|
| 74 |
+
dspread = self.spread.diff()
|
| 75 |
+
df["dspread"] = dspread
|
| 76 |
+
|
| 77 |
+
# 5) Initialize positions
|
| 78 |
+
pos1 = np.zeros(n)
|
| 79 |
+
pos2 = np.zeros(n)
|
| 80 |
+
current_signal = 0 # +1 for long spread (long price1, short price2), -1 for short
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
for t in range(1, n):
|
| 83 |
+
# Check if volatility below threshold
|
| 84 |
+
if vol_rank.iloc[t] > self.min_vol_pct:
|
| 85 |
+
# Too volatile or not enough data
|
| 86 |
+
current_signal = 0
|
| 87 |
+
else:
|
| 88 |
+
z = self.zscore.iloc[t]
|
| 89 |
+
# Check existing position
|
| 90 |
+
if current_signal == 0:
|
| 91 |
+
# Look for entry
|
| 92 |
+
if z > self.entry_thresh.iloc[t]:
|
| 93 |
+
# Spread is high → short spread (sell price1, buy price2)
|
| 94 |
+
# Momentum filter: require Δspread < 0 (i.e., spread rolling down)
|
| 95 |
+
if not self.momentum_filter or dspread.iloc[t] < 0:
|
| 96 |
+
current_signal = -1
|
| 97 |
+
elif z < -self.entry_thresh.iloc[t]:
|
| 98 |
+
# Spread is low → long spread (buy price1, sell price2)
|
| 99 |
+
if not self.momentum_filter or dspread.iloc[t] > 0:
|
| 100 |
+
current_signal = +1
|
| 101 |
+
elif current_signal == +1:
|
| 102 |
+
# Already long spread; check exit when z ≥ -exit_thresh (close)
|
| 103 |
+
if z >= -self.exit_thresh.iloc[t]:
|
| 104 |
+
current_signal = 0
|
| 105 |
+
elif current_signal == -1:
|
| 106 |
+
# Already short spread; check exit when z ≤ exit_thresh (close)
|
| 107 |
+
if z <= self.exit_thresh.iloc[t]:
|
| 108 |
+
current_signal = 0
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
# 6) Position sizing based on volatility normalization
|
| 111 |
+
if current_signal != 0 and rolling_std.iloc[t] > 0:
|
| 112 |
+
# Dollar‐volatility of spread per unit of price1 = rolling_std / price1
|
| 113 |
+
# But simpler: scale pos1 so that spread vol = target_vol
|
| 114 |
+
scale = self.target_vol / rolling_std.iloc[t]
|
| 115 |
+
pos1[t] = current_signal * scale
|
| 116 |
+
pos2[t] = -current_signal * scale * self.beta.iloc[t]
|
| 117 |
+
else:
|
| 118 |
+
pos1[t] = 0.0
|
| 119 |
+
pos2[t] = 0.0
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
df["pos1"] = pos1
|
| 122 |
+
df["pos2"] = pos2
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
# Attach price series for later P&L calculations
|
| 125 |
+
df["price1"] = self.price1
|
| 126 |
+
df["price2"] = self.price2
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
logger.info("Signals generated.")
|
| 129 |
+
return df
|
Advance_version/utils.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 2 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 3 |
+
from sklearn.cluster import AgglomerativeClustering
|
| 4 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import coint
|
| 5 |
+
import logging
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
|
| 8 |
+
|
| 9 |
+
def half_life(spread: pd.Series) -> float:
|
| 10 |
+
"""
|
| 11 |
+
Estimate the half-life of mean reversion for a spread series S_t
|
| 12 |
+
by fitting: ΔS_t = a + kappa * S_{t-1} + ε_t.
|
| 13 |
+
Returns: hl = -ln(2) / kappa.
|
| 14 |
+
"""
|
| 15 |
+
spread_lag = spread.shift(1).dropna()
|
| 16 |
+
spread_ret = (spread - spread_lag).dropna()
|
| 17 |
+
spread_lag = spread_lag.loc[spread_ret.index]
|
| 18 |
+
|
| 19 |
+
# Add constant
|
| 20 |
+
X = np.vstack([np.ones(len(spread_lag)), spread_lag.values]).T
|
| 21 |
+
y = spread_ret.values
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
# OLS regression
|
| 24 |
+
beta = np.linalg.lstsq(X, y, rcond=None)[0]
|
| 25 |
+
kappa = beta[1]
|
| 26 |
+
if kappa >= 0:
|
| 27 |
+
return np.inf
|
| 28 |
+
hl = -np.log(2) / kappa
|
| 29 |
+
return hl
|
| 30 |
+
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
def zscore(series: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
|
| 33 |
+
"""
|
| 34 |
+
Compute z-score based on rolling mean/std.
|
| 35 |
+
Assumes 'series' has no NaN for window-sized segments.
|
| 36 |
+
"""
|
| 37 |
+
mean = series.rolling(series.name + "_mean").mean() # placeholder
|
| 38 |
+
# But we prefer to pass rolling window explicitly, so this may not be used directly.
|
| 39 |
+
|
| 40 |
+
|
| 41 |
+
def compute_zscore(spread: pd.Series, window: int) -> pd.Series:
|
| 42 |
+
"""
|
| 43 |
+
Compute rolling z-score over 'window' periods.
|
| 44 |
+
"""
|
| 45 |
+
m = spread.rolling(window).mean()
|
| 46 |
+
s = spread.rolling(window).std()
|
| 47 |
+
return (spread - m) / s
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
def cluster_universe(returns: pd.DataFrame, cluster_size: int) -> dict:
|
| 51 |
+
"""
|
| 52 |
+
Perform hierarchical agglomerative clustering on returns to group assets
|
| 53 |
+
into clusters of approximate size 'cluster_size'. Returns a dict mapping
|
| 54 |
+
cluster_label -> list of tickers.
|
| 55 |
+
"""
|
| 56 |
+
n_assets = returns.shape[1]
|
| 57 |
+
# Compute pairwise distance as 1 - correlation
|
| 58 |
+
corr = returns.corr().fillna(0)
|
| 59 |
+
dist = 1 - corr.abs()
|
| 60 |
+
# Convert to condensed form for clustering if needed, but sklearn Agglomerative supports precomputed.
|
| 61 |
+
n_clusters = max(1, n_assets // cluster_size)
|
| 62 |
+
model = AgglomerativeClustering(
|
| 63 |
+
n_clusters=n_clusters, linkage="average", metric="precomputed"
|
| 64 |
+
)
|
| 65 |
+
labels = model.fit_predict(dist.values)
|
| 66 |
+
clusters = {}
|
| 67 |
+
tickers = returns.columns.tolist()
|
| 68 |
+
for i, lab in enumerate(labels):
|
| 69 |
+
clusters.setdefault(lab, []).append(tickers[i])
|
| 70 |
+
logger.info(f"Formed {n_clusters} clusters.")
|
| 71 |
+
return clusters
|
| 72 |
+
|
| 73 |
+
|
| 74 |
+
def rolling_cointegration_test(
|
| 75 |
+
series1: pd.Series,
|
| 76 |
+
series2: pd.Series,
|
| 77 |
+
window: int,
|
| 78 |
+
step: int,
|
| 79 |
+
pval_threshold: float,
|
| 80 |
+
min_valid_periods: int
|
| 81 |
+
) -> bool:
|
| 82 |
+
"""
|
| 83 |
+
Run rolling Engle‐Granger cointegration tests over consecutive windows.
|
| 84 |
+
Return True if at least 'min_valid_periods' consecutive windows have pval < threshold.
|
| 85 |
+
"""
|
| 86 |
+
n = len(series1)
|
| 87 |
+
valid = 0
|
| 88 |
+
for start in range(0, n - window + 1, step):
|
| 89 |
+
seg1 = series1.iloc[start : start + window]
|
| 90 |
+
seg2 = series2.iloc[start : start + window]
|
| 91 |
+
score, pval, _ = coint(seg1, seg2)
|
| 92 |
+
if pval < pval_threshold:
|
| 93 |
+
valid += 1
|
| 94 |
+
if valid >= min_valid_periods:
|
| 95 |
+
return True
|
| 96 |
+
else:
|
| 97 |
+
valid = 0
|
| 98 |
+
return False
|
output/pair_summary.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
pair,annual_return,annual_vol,sharpe,max_drawdown,half_life
|
| 2 |
+
005810.KS/3N4.SG,0.0,0.0,,0.0,69.89134265705191
|
| 3 |
+
005810.KS/9CM0.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,41.83425338360788
|
| 4 |
+
005810.KS/ARREF,0.0,0.0,,0.0,32.13116349951154
|
| 5 |
+
005810.KS/BHAGYANGR.NS,0.0,0.0,,0.0,74.93174990279714
|
| 6 |
+
005810.KS/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.0,0.0,,0.0,78.616169063629
|
| 7 |
+
005810.KS/FDY.TO,0.0,0.0,,0.0,37.934485267520856
|
| 8 |
+
005810.KS/GRX.L,0.0,0.0,,0.0,63.274106994412925
|
| 9 |
+
005810.KS/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.0,0.0,,0.0,85.08157376122398
|
| 10 |
+
005810.KS/JIX.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,51.60848998374307
|
| 11 |
+
005810.KS/MTJ3.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,41.559572435658886
|
| 12 |
+
005810.KS/OUW0.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,69.49905471320476
|
| 13 |
+
2009.TW/9CM0.F,0.0015379683024434598,0.013866530810193085,0.11091226230232884,-0.021404924568302307,36.45085847767775
|
| 14 |
+
2009.TW/ATYM.L,2.2086948121335936e-05,0.0002737536008921058,0.08068185422715606,-0.000924767795943129,33.14600025115992
|
| 15 |
+
2009.TW/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.00016970114358705324,0.0003105846147590616,0.5463926270742683,-0.0006140813909702956,111.29149639797315
|
| 16 |
+
2009.TW/MTJ3.F,-0.0009624965054081391,0.003769537532899947,-0.2553354349194342,-0.012749500002018684,117.8922602920659
|
| 17 |
+
2009.TW/OUW0.F,0.008679668544795627,0.00807960775157276,1.0742685550676716,-0.01643492715817114,39.72993107682057
|
| 18 |
+
2009.TW/RE8.F,0.0014093521632039252,0.007366838829065429,0.1913103022755716,-0.01505594784051718,94.74302958043734
|
| 19 |
+
2009.TW/SFR.AX,0.000104417903831866,0.0009819877561163303,0.10633320342488693,-0.0012578764214811159,120.1390203977421
|
| 20 |
+
3N4.SG/9CM0.F,2.8987950810066963,71.85231668778763,0.040343794252348575,-154.10616875700134,242.65941495753827
|
| 21 |
+
3N4.SG/ARREF,0.2995852352905628,6.0534022666034355,0.049490389387034754,-0.7519215927748252,103.56924279210467
|
| 22 |
+
3N4.SG/RE8.F,1.4069783664689646,29.229876467895537,0.0481349405637862,-58.34256154333586,70.2851958509006
|
| 23 |
+
9CM0.F/ARREF,0.020923271238472596,0.09319695228763693,0.22450595995775047,-0.08714316707490799,18.936737605822337
|
| 24 |
+
9CM0.F/ATYM.L,-0.007306943916109754,0.04824493966184529,-0.15145513637958763,-0.1349914136257513,15.799100864512194
|
| 25 |
+
9CM0.F/BHAGYANGR.NS,0.0660025567021083,0.07181790076192135,0.9190265379784478,-0.11963854656971595,49.013472541787415
|
| 26 |
+
9CM0.F/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.08416347778181765,0.07927215497488543,1.061702912056344,-0.04684297884964142,63.98739503536009
|
| 27 |
+
9CM0.F/FDY.TO,0.04251903531427881,0.08612845163691686,0.49367003012572513,-0.05936287611549328,1.6622221263419488
|
| 28 |
+
9CM0.F/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.00884256658845528,0.04893411161646993,0.18070352758747346,-0.1329083093955279,59.27821905145623
|
| 29 |
+
9CM0.F/JIX.F,0.046107376456388405,0.09382954568836062,0.49139507303516594,-0.07141317069741386,72.83614052376302
|
| 30 |
+
9CM0.F/MTJ3.F,0.033289223403817125,0.09226784423892787,0.360789001611597,-0.07141298265884881,47.8306364618964
|
| 31 |
+
9CM0.F/PUCOBRE.SN,0.051261099430377266,0.05680058376299433,0.9024748696997363,-0.04894630374447549,28.099354514019833
|
| 32 |
+
9CM0.F/RE8.F,0.02900050584965297,0.09399063418967529,0.30854676212875926,-0.07939818590197838,28.675231823192284
|
| 33 |
+
ARREF/ATYM.L,0.0037633568393642403,0.028708754219775777,0.1310874310516715,-0.05008849350184719,20.286772076201153
|
| 34 |
+
ARREF/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.0024948307834449235,0.022787597062696785,0.10948195970732486,-0.06250663175970615,64.37950748503815
|
| 35 |
+
ARREF/FDY.TO,-0.021233110164099234,0.02314828699304472,-0.9172648572431761,-0.12805478466341516,20.53548141479908
|
| 36 |
+
ARREF/OUW0.F,-0.015477774449879966,0.023435157478104332,-0.6604510536931951,-0.09505692175817171,28.231379537957697
|
| 37 |
+
ARREF/RE8.F,-0.0035045189420866985,0.025326914883228396,-0.13837133177272246,-0.06557218853931879,5.999667008278748
|
| 38 |
+
ARREF/SFR.AX,-0.022230191649560083,0.03523261016328443,-0.6309550029513837,-0.1409957452957015,45.14644359217902
|
| 39 |
+
ATYM.L/CS.TO,0.0,0.0,,0.0,33.516715432823155
|
| 40 |
+
ATYM.L/FDY.TO,0.0,0.0,,0.0,17.69026387464004
|
| 41 |
+
ATYM.L/GRX.L,0.0,0.0,,0.0,105.10435295463033
|
| 42 |
+
ATYM.L/JIX.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,73.59510974256123
|
| 43 |
+
ATYM.L/OUW0.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,25.977190637745423
|
| 44 |
+
ATYM.L/RE8.F,0.0,0.0,,0.0,29.44341876789875
|
| 45 |
+
ATYM.L/SFR.AX,0.0,0.0,,0.0,62.05631321652151
|
| 46 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/CS.TO,-8.876559449988441e-05,0.0010920247313968073,-0.0812853335165262,-0.0024916594820197533,28.962437832974977
|
| 47 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/CUBEXTUB.NS,4.2282180329200614e-05,9.822323565167935e-05,0.43047024513774207,-0.00012514096629827033,27.925111599290567
|
| 48 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/FDY.TO,9.911246990657041e-05,0.002455826086957325,0.040358098007406945,-0.004730781288453918,62.91333379646588
|
| 49 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/GRX.AX,-0.00028971644498221316,0.0027666816044103855,-0.10471622196076855,-0.004754839723490601,58.5688555418701
|
| 50 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/GRX.L,-4.830143746636928e-05,0.00016255117534607288,-0.29714603640075254,-0.0004534759599134583,70.16643742811367
|
| 51 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/HINDCOPPER.NS,-3.8906339715483185e-06,5.3084088097616206e-05,-0.07329190555922974,-0.00010590328464739472,14.298136259522273
|
| 52 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/JIX.F,0.00021248348827240804,0.0008360393411925331,0.2541548917654041,-0.001573780458168519,82.86601697948797
|
| 53 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/MTJ3.F,0.0010953382058949135,0.0029114438939769065,0.3762182084844262,-0.003879630758871827,44.02024694727368
|
| 54 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/OUW0.F,0.0002688760548834601,0.002906038105831274,0.0925232378556674,-0.00512370528019637,30.059580022493094
|
| 55 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/PUCOBRE.SN,1.0853064599913864e-05,9.517074745370657e-05,0.11403782034172913,-0.0001502581670337344,65.54660043248278
|
| 56 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/RE8.F,-0.0001648495804892347,0.0028389424813802687,-0.05806724918536789,-0.006427505868697349,46.54475715603291
|
| 57 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/SARKY.IS,1.152373992097111e-05,0.0003076963931195794,0.037451657473581965,-0.0011547569680025978,49.75643015271566
|
| 58 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/SFR.AX,5.148194635107295e-05,0.00023199920393676454,0.2219057025950195,-0.0003673161103447137,46.41425765070565
|
| 59 |
+
CS.TO/OUW0.F,0.006187800697393442,0.011450643773166767,0.5403888916616045,-0.010711454829312204,1.6029516630222154
|
| 60 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/FDY.TO,0.0007845263421744075,0.00149862588500968,0.5234971249474581,-0.001508410754706569,108.85442303098509
|
| 61 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/GRX.AX,6.36384739103324e-05,0.0030177910306884094,0.021087766933887194,-0.008873880414873359,88.17099292025958
|
| 62 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/GRX.L,0.0,0.0,,0.0,111.26334875320688
|
| 63 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/HINDCOPPER.NS,2.1590568998197668e-05,4.805911155933034e-05,0.44925027320872335,0.0,26.31800953856392
|
| 64 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/JIX.F,6.993202933047726e-05,0.0006040330998564552,0.11577516090938757,-0.0010356158396423942,24.488841933734584
|
| 65 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/MTJ3.F,0.0004744674348713396,0.0008331120468301126,0.5695121522688682,-0.0009682388753128803,71.39234518921627
|
| 66 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/OUW0.F,-0.000529896113936057,0.002003546866609874,-0.26447902106361715,-0.004676234619514956,60.82984989421814
|
| 67 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/PUCOBRE.SN,1.702947541759592e-05,8.20094476946929e-05,0.20765260462421029,-0.0001521841752243347,121.81500189351588
|
| 68 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/RE8.F,0.0013420286969336725,0.0025721291554915045,0.5217578962037878,-0.00374363280468474,50.295751753165455
|
| 69 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/SARKY.IS,8.817683939099652e-05,0.00042747308157015535,0.2062746011213463,-0.0008173960233719408,105.67658869939382
|
| 70 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/SFR.AX,-2.096582469846009e-05,0.0005353518793677406,-0.039162699350604825,-0.0014792863446207276,29.143035344954246
|
| 71 |
+
FDY.TO/GRX.AX,0.03439703967170815,0.040228115273470505,0.8550497441373345,-0.07067463276570908,83.37890978249656
|
| 72 |
+
FDY.TO/GRX.L,0.03221525812505788,0.02856757983020966,1.1276859403746504,-0.0264660912702098,90.3190850219358
|
| 73 |
+
FDY.TO/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.029843026681218632,0.02606342493930019,1.1450155438404912,-0.028939678849369387,64.9646934714888
|
| 74 |
+
FDY.TO/JIX.F,0.03662617136257906,0.04142029319458316,0.8842566900846791,-0.06823372195345995,68.30254918328009
|
| 75 |
+
FDY.TO/MTJ3.F,0.043489900843854734,0.04060907095061916,1.0709405516008648,-0.06920837368805552,52.65188014940165
|
| 76 |
+
FDY.TO/OUW0.F,0.04134423179278279,0.03929824006617014,1.0520631896789177,-0.05680185812103446,20.34109050555137
|
| 77 |
+
FDY.TO/PUCOBRE.SN,0.031150896643225456,0.028719725752592056,1.084651605366182,-0.02383241147450124,29.69317449514897
|
| 78 |
+
FDY.TO/RE8.F,0.03852685628627506,0.04167859449359142,0.9243799306187982,-0.060438420765762196,24.87211352505537
|
| 79 |
+
GRX.AX/GRX.L,0.036849859888825165,0.0375898423162381,0.9803142981769498,-0.027466995669377794,2.137919235933928
|
| 80 |
+
GRX.AX/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.012865011490230671,0.023730905530123896,0.5421205471447302,-0.05062274662696435,82.1427350570934
|
| 81 |
+
GRX.AX/JIX.F,0.01566849916564017,0.03303988678568906,0.4742298079673459,-0.05384346927344101,96.9863284772213
|
| 82 |
+
GRX.AX/MTJ3.F,0.022513800480160384,0.034772512438693344,0.6474597002403543,-0.048067964931316605,23.8286308823473
|
| 83 |
+
GRX.AX/OUW0.F,0.03296054738584675,0.03480105648583718,0.9471134130442432,-0.0532757434592191,84.7114907644092
|
| 84 |
+
GRX.AX/PUCOBRE.SN,0.022388696356388627,0.03916873670884552,0.5715960798738899,-0.03835050678554284,93.87755243063428
|
| 85 |
+
GRX.AX/RE8.F,0.019196722316995762,0.04069770262865231,0.47169056426002626,-0.05270274959090142,77.00619129671291
|
| 86 |
+
GRX.AX/SARKY.IS,0.039963876009710075,0.03344178625800246,1.19502815134903,-0.030603297577380766,30.766531733933597
|
| 87 |
+
GRX.AX/SFR.AX,0.031333332577252015,0.037561451620305525,0.8341885423915134,-0.038559708139174684,72.3670527555053
|
| 88 |
+
JIX.F/SFR.AX,0.015151394990011946,0.04746400657228732,0.31921862658046973,-0.08521344096114344,37.210056047668964
|
| 89 |
+
MTJ3.F/RE8.F,0.015277409029052613,0.02963431947212822,0.5155309553648221,-0.0856450808450801,51.31666799334718
|
| 90 |
+
MTJ3.F/SFR.AX,-0.010076787153644795,0.024376770054227493,-0.41337663403430464,-0.08978013192865307,79.00933735832268
|
| 91 |
+
PUCOBRE.SN/SARKY.IS,0.0,0.0,,0.0,126.22931397278033
|
| 92 |
+
RE8.F/SFR.AX,-0.013851531714805354,0.05638419622891655,-0.24566337096602286,-0.1474315665002387,44.75423200487218
|
output/portfolio_metrics.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
annual_return,annual_vol,sharpe,max_drawdown
|
| 2 |
+
0.017780666121420152,0.01101873703285444,1.6136755118489303,-0.008674351588195456
|
output/portfolio_weights.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,0
|
| 2 |
+
2009.TW/9CM0.F,0.019356938303344905
|
| 3 |
+
2009.TW/ATYM.L,0.019276209356947783
|
| 4 |
+
2009.TW/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.019276647446920484
|
| 5 |
+
2009.TW/OUW0.F,0.019265760341899654
|
| 6 |
+
2009.TW/RE8.F,0.019302079382489568
|
| 7 |
+
2009.TW/SFR.AX,0.01927866704138942
|
| 8 |
+
3N4.SG/9CM0.F,1.600026089701147e-05
|
| 9 |
+
3N4.SG/ARREF,-1.4033629405966763e-08
|
| 10 |
+
3N4.SG/RE8.F,2.776962026905125e-07
|
| 11 |
+
9CM0.F/ARREF,0.01683404735011321
|
| 12 |
+
9CM0.F/BHAGYANGR.NS,0.017710650821087238
|
| 13 |
+
9CM0.F/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.017252421447959645
|
| 14 |
+
9CM0.F/FDY.TO,0.01696192143711173
|
| 15 |
+
9CM0.F/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.018922788182741408
|
| 16 |
+
9CM0.F/JIX.F,0.016824229933070544
|
| 17 |
+
9CM0.F/MTJ3.F,0.016832237280803984
|
| 18 |
+
9CM0.F/PUCOBRE.SN,0.019035491677081465
|
| 19 |
+
9CM0.F/RE8.F,0.01671660866888466
|
| 20 |
+
ARREF/ATYM.L,0.01919393506512004
|
| 21 |
+
ARREF/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.019268867373268328
|
| 22 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/CUBEXTUB.NS,0.0192767066786576
|
| 23 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/FDY.TO,0.019278384220307747
|
| 24 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/JIX.F,0.01927673216947256
|
| 25 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/MTJ3.F,0.019273899481384575
|
| 26 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/OUW0.F,0.0192806434608896
|
| 27 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/PUCOBRE.SN,0.019276740189728896
|
| 28 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/SARKY.IS,0.01927643334278014
|
| 29 |
+
BHAGYANGR.NS/SFR.AX,0.019276583462850962
|
| 30 |
+
CS.TO/OUW0.F,0.019219583853766795
|
| 31 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/FDY.TO,0.0192742692579241
|
| 32 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/GRX.AX,0.019271860877920412
|
| 33 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.01927667384870885
|
| 34 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/JIX.F,0.0192822843975036
|
| 35 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/MTJ3.F,0.019274920210791805
|
| 36 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/PUCOBRE.SN,0.019276659462253796
|
| 37 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/RE8.F,0.019269532749390687
|
| 38 |
+
CUBEXTUB.NS/SARKY.IS,0.01927701639747627
|
| 39 |
+
FDY.TO/GRX.AX,0.018795273835669365
|
| 40 |
+
FDY.TO/GRX.L,0.019161403617310207
|
| 41 |
+
FDY.TO/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.019201626745230304
|
| 42 |
+
FDY.TO/JIX.F,0.018764988751327354
|
| 43 |
+
FDY.TO/MTJ3.F,0.01880835759194311
|
| 44 |
+
FDY.TO/OUW0.F,0.01885245862626124
|
| 45 |
+
FDY.TO/PUCOBRE.SN,0.01911990767601962
|
| 46 |
+
FDY.TO/RE8.F,0.018782827094670183
|
| 47 |
+
GRX.AX/GRX.L,0.01900340047400452
|
| 48 |
+
GRX.AX/HINDCOPPER.NS,0.01913912361141376
|
| 49 |
+
GRX.AX/JIX.F,0.019020941561484168
|
| 50 |
+
GRX.AX/MTJ3.F,0.018993074243052094
|
| 51 |
+
GRX.AX/OUW0.F,0.018949323808203217
|
| 52 |
+
GRX.AX/PUCOBRE.SN,0.019163099561725568
|
| 53 |
+
GRX.AX/RE8.F,0.018970021501792528
|
| 54 |
+
GRX.AX/SARKY.IS,0.019008665335682448
|
| 55 |
+
GRX.AX/SFR.AX,0.018963413787314264
|
| 56 |
+
JIX.F/SFR.AX,0.019117617799609916
|
| 57 |
+
MTJ3.F/RE8.F,0.019219786903504947
|
trade_details.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,167 @@
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
Date,V_Price,MA_Price,Beta,Spread,Z-Score,Position
|
| 2 |
+
2022-02-01,385.1221618652344,226.6815948486328,1.698997462238565,-0.009292518783354353,-0.8713897237619049,0.0
|
| 3 |
+
2022-02-24,362.8435974121094,212.33453369140625,1.708769658946882,0.012788693599929957,1.6541589842934814,-1.0
|
| 4 |
+
2022-02-25,362.5587463378906,214.25950622558594,1.692183822482254,-0.007723910081722352,-1.0506848483260303,1.0
|
| 5 |
+
2022-03-02,338.0011291503906,203.716064453125,1.6591728826121726,0.000959257292095117,0.3169645002202774,0.0
|
| 6 |
+
2022-03-11,319.0426940917969,192.2150115966797,1.6597907892569284,0.005988286714284641,1.0820874131932998,-1.0
|
| 7 |
+
2022-03-15,329.0719299316406,201.42953491210938,1.6337199966045473,-0.007529161026241127,-1.1657623950867881,1.0
|
| 8 |
+
2022-03-16,338.58062744140625,207.0286102294922,1.6354251976640835,0.0008216347184770711,0.3682846009231695,0.0
|
| 9 |
+
2022-03-18,343.89495849609375,214.1031494140625,1.606266767052406,-0.011815128970681599,-1.7301559150902894,1.0
|
| 10 |
+
2022-03-23,336.1249084472656,209.77435302734375,1.6023300948467785,-0.0028505354596859434,-0.15922090692229954,0.0
|
| 11 |
+
2022-03-24,343.16802978515625,212.34429931640625,1.616062115411025,0.006452236412883394,1.696741088575966,-1.0
|
| 12 |
+
2022-03-25,342.8439025878906,213.4386749267578,1.6063089884619992,-0.004559432379210193,-0.4967617367767362,0.0
|
| 13 |
+
2022-03-29,361.04595947265625,222.90725708007812,1.6196662227320948,0.010604378194102537,2.191600264918986,-1.0
|
| 14 |
+
2022-03-31,351.0559997558594,216.70237731933594,1.620004249029402,-0.002772276237578808,-0.35807215326871655,0.0
|
| 15 |
+
2022-04-12,340.1522521972656,206.56932067871094,1.6466309021390433,0.00882533383048667,1.6556254496612903,-1.0
|
| 16 |
+
2022-04-18,350.97265625,208.29888916015625,1.6849652119108185,-0.003725664530747963,-1.0176329684611791,1.0
|
| 17 |
+
2022-04-21,358.48779296875,211.50393676757812,1.694931778741407,0.0030492124687384603,0.15526813873362297,0.0
|
| 18 |
+
2022-04-26,338.4898986816406,196.50473022460938,1.7224959264975666,0.011301332247739992,1.5466823971462649,-1.0
|
| 19 |
+
2022-04-27,355.66473388671875,209.2174072265625,1.7000279755795624,-0.01071137665923061,-2.16250218073127,1.0
|
| 20 |
+
2022-04-28,372.642822265625,215.6177215576172,1.7281964821250637,0.013034385929472592,1.6609387370301136,-1.0
|
| 21 |
+
2022-04-29,357.44512939453125,208.25982666015625,1.71636941200485,-0.005666834393139197,-1.2256617891172599,1.0
|
| 22 |
+
2022-05-04,362.50115966796875,209.6180419921875,1.7293359352714737,0.0011469696341350755,-0.23861776732149803,0.0
|
| 23 |
+
2022-05-06,341.45074462890625,198.18540954589844,1.7229115509604658,-0.005186709552731372,-1.0801055355571185,1.0
|
| 24 |
+
2022-05-13,327.3645935058594,195.0492401123047,1.6783314417449464,0.0073211369187902164,1.0658109967579399,-1.0
|
| 25 |
+
2022-05-16,324.3447265625,193.65904235839844,1.6748328632364742,-0.0018018422500745146,-0.20071102435017932,0.0
|
| 26 |
+
2022-05-18,330.41400146484375,195.7932891845703,1.687517288181404,0.009441055980232704,1.2907520682269953,-1.0
|
| 27 |
+
2022-05-24,335.125732421875,198.37789916992188,1.6893233234540768,0.0013204963048565332,0.317910262297382,0.0
|
| 28 |
+
2022-06-01,351.2283630371094,205.52468872070312,1.7089016329953104,0.006886861446957937,1.2638101351013376,-1.0
|
| 29 |
+
2022-06-08,356.4122619628906,209.01980590820312,1.7051601331790787,2.188339379927129e-05,-0.05644141721841759,0.0
|
| 30 |
+
2022-06-10,329.2827453613281,195.3233642578125,1.6858742852930837,-0.007891757852178216,-1.73843943442919,1.0
|
| 31 |
+
2022-06-14,316.8786926269531,189.45909118652344,1.6725398748674623,0.0008079613421045906,0.17824890597167806,0.0
|
| 32 |
+
2022-06-16,303.7369079589844,185.0828399658203,1.6411606183339826,-0.013760122330836566,-2.3679495060793565,1.0
|
| 33 |
+
2022-06-17,305.61572265625,186.02272033691406,1.6428896176998418,0.0009267584526924111,0.4203095274464105,0.0
|
| 34 |
+
2022-06-23,311.5865783691406,192.51361083984375,1.6185718579540374,-0.010534409345780205,-1.5873846851052007,1.0
|
| 35 |
+
2022-06-24,325.1021423339844,201.1974639892578,1.6158429067767806,-0.0013527145346188263,0.16171254543539496,0.0
|
| 36 |
+
2022-06-27,323.4594421386719,199.28839111328125,1.623054061376715,0.0036095570295060497,1.007168175757446,-1.0
|
| 37 |
+
2022-06-28,313.0915832519531,193.96253967285156,1.6142092818595024,-0.004548621005824316,-0.4903142951727661,0.0
|
| 38 |
+
2022-06-29,317.3213806152344,195.31358337402344,1.6246491620163739,0.005331056212014573,1.3354470297807317,-1.0
|
| 39 |
+
2022-07-01,313.0423889160156,195.00027465820312,1.60535542505928,-0.002359894580422406,0.008911272349719201,0.0
|
| 40 |
+
2022-07-07,319.26580810546875,198.54432678222656,1.608011357379714,0.004275696339107071,1.3782762472485337,-1.0
|
| 41 |
+
2022-07-12,318.0737609863281,200.52195739746094,1.5862406788498085,-0.0023248401126920726,0.057621582992309704,0.0
|
| 42 |
+
2022-07-13,318.5762023925781,199.86598205566406,1.5939298996672235,0.003837667702384806,1.2084711792217937,-1.0
|
| 43 |
+
2022-07-14,320.2115173339844,201.58908081054688,1.5884502647453211,-0.0027114492947362123,-0.10823739805409809,0.0
|
| 44 |
+
2022-07-18,326.1029357910156,202.86180114746094,1.6074784361704821,0.006964923767782238,1.7704559006923328,-1.0
|
| 45 |
+
2022-07-19,335.33404541015625,209.1764373779297,1.603125693681451,-0.002075863151901558,-0.23520523924680745,0.0
|
| 46 |
+
2022-07-27,338.18115234375,206.0533905029297,1.6411720421429,0.012088661588450123,2.4856951609432287,-1.0
|
| 47 |
+
2022-07-29,348.54522705078125,207.65895080566406,1.67844929981724,0.0002064702317170486,-0.2571156402891086,0.0
|
| 48 |
+
2022-08-01,345.3434143066406,206.92469787597656,1.6689549173571432,-0.0045777361116847715,-1.0769100297524834,1.0
|
| 49 |
+
2022-08-02,343.8360900878906,201.9317169189453,1.7026519992064635,0.016648572654730742,2.17972537849096,-1.0
|
| 50 |
+
2022-08-04,350.7913818359375,208.9904022216797,1.6785749231209075,-0.014666506326022954,-2.1803234503995075,1.0
|
| 51 |
+
2022-08-18,352.0622863769531,211.10630798339844,1.6676928378548015,0.0018085270696701627,0.06095102554861629,0.0
|
| 52 |
+
2022-09-07,323.7483825683594,196.56179809570312,1.6470353605213508,0.0041505770780077,1.0781302732716491,-1.0
|
| 53 |
+
2022-09-12,333.4030456542969,202.65225219726562,1.6451951737454968,0.0005383907002283195,0.4765621898360632,0.0
|
| 54 |
+
2022-09-13,320.61553955078125,195.82623291015625,1.63726572380837,-0.00403941553219056,-1.104522737490833,1.0
|
| 55 |
+
2022-09-16,310.4582824707031,189.57884216308594,1.637599055977204,0.004149511182220067,1.5005166920930897,-1.0
|
| 56 |
+
2022-09-19,309.3746032714844,189.4121551513672,1.633352615231713,-0.0022357016762271087,-0.3983450009368775,0.0
|
| 57 |
+
2022-09-20,308.6258850097656,188.37254333496094,1.6383663209773272,0.0026542129235735956,1.0212210358208584,-1.0
|
| 58 |
+
2022-09-21,299.98590087890625,183.41976928710938,1.635524062072271,-0.001545249905689161,-0.33290163361032404,0.0
|
| 59 |
+
2022-09-22,293.9368591308594,182.21340942382812,1.6132131453322827,-0.012208207473406674,-2.755845144457649,1.0
|
| 60 |
+
2022-09-26,285.8091735839844,177.11354064941406,1.6136724175616397,0.005938261342635087,1.5108100982330033,-1.0
|
| 61 |
+
2022-09-29,282.5187072753906,176.59373474121094,1.5999087885006382,-0.015160931223249463,-2.4970290313955736,1.0
|
| 62 |
+
2022-10-04,296.80377197265625,182.07614135742188,1.630036730404185,0.012973829794077574,2.043838964797215,-1.0
|
| 63 |
+
2022-10-05,299.6903381347656,184.0572509765625,1.6282504716636348,-0.000967580934286616,-0.07556540812973683,0.0
|
| 64 |
+
2022-10-17,291.1351318359375,181.68382263183594,1.6023916298638752,0.0064951690106909155,1.1358144865770117,-1.0
|
| 65 |
+
2022-10-19,293.819091796875,182.82151794433594,1.6071586389486536,-0.004090153070819724,-0.49237682474029887,0.0
|
| 66 |
+
2022-10-20,292.3586730957031,183.61590576171875,1.5922735800095655,-0.008082518207800149,-1.174378848232363,1.0
|
| 67 |
+
2022-10-24,301.5553283691406,187.0387420654297,1.612220933572808,0.007553022129968667,1.1893081737032174,-1.0
|
| 68 |
+
2022-10-26,315.2812194824219,199.41578674316406,1.5811015977965515,-0.015399563051175846,-1.9972352273197413,1.0
|
| 69 |
+
2022-11-01,328.7801208496094,202.94647216796875,1.6199704842305895,0.012826058775203819,2.031531122672483,-1.0
|
| 70 |
+
2022-11-02,315.58709716796875,197.0816192626953,1.6013493493574906,-0.009425608669062058,-1.2732445913651174,1.0
|
| 71 |
+
2022-11-04,314.1563415527344,193.18801879882812,1.626091852298869,0.014878222199229185,1.9365682898407368,-1.0
|
| 72 |
+
2022-11-14,334.87835693359375,203.33128356933594,1.646994282269107,-0.0071045115409447135,-1.0494715613821142,1.0
|
| 73 |
+
2022-11-22,340.3944091796875,206.74209594726562,1.6464672317442657,0.0003227803857157596,-0.07213585495381308,0.0
|
| 74 |
+
2022-11-28,340.0293273925781,207.65623474121094,1.63749055698827,-0.005796095894311293,-1.0766660222795783,1.0
|
| 75 |
+
2022-11-30,351.6830139160156,213.2982940673828,1.6487824712515218,0.0005255098623706544,-0.03690346798938799,0.0
|
| 76 |
+
2022-12-01,356.02471923828125,213.2982940673828,1.6690954719175388,0.00950244267698963,1.3262464600366217,-1.0
|
| 77 |
+
2022-12-14,352.7782897949219,209.6811065673828,1.6824526167287452,-0.00023662795024392835,-0.27325445147569744,0.0
|
| 78 |
+
2022-12-15,341.66729736328125,204.36337280273438,1.6718869482903826,-0.005158334212126192,-1.3129400999762781,1.0
|
| 79 |
+
2022-12-16,341.26275634765625,203.3607635498047,1.678100054589528,0.0030479333609036985,0.41239471703467173,0.0
|
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