import pandas as pd import numpy as np import itertools import logging from utils import cluster_universe, rolling_cointegration_test, half_life logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) class PairSelector: """ From a universe of assets, cluster similar ones, then within each cluster run rolling cointegration tests. For stable pairs, compute static hedge ratio via OLS and half‐life of the spread. """ def __init__( self, prices: pd.DataFrame, cluster_size: int = 20, coint_pval_threshold: float = 0.05, rolling_window: int = 252, rolling_step: int = 63, min_valid_periods: int = 2 ): """ :param prices: DataFrame of asset prices (aligned), columns = tickers. """ self.prices = prices self.returns = prices.pct_change().dropna() self.cluster_size = cluster_size self.pval_threshold = coint_pval_threshold self.rolling_window = rolling_window self.rolling_step = rolling_step self.min_valid_periods = min_valid_periods def select_pairs(self) -> pd.DataFrame: """ Returns a DataFrame with columns: [ticker1, ticker2, beta_ols, half_life_days]. Only includes pairs that pass the rolling cointegration test. """ # 1) Cluster the universe clusters = cluster_universe(self.returns, self.cluster_size) selected = [] for cluster_id, tickers in clusters.items(): if len(tickers) < 2: continue logger.info(f"Testing cluster {cluster_id} with {len(tickers)} tickers.") # For each unique pair in that cluster: for t1, t2 in itertools.combinations(tickers, 2): s1 = self.prices[t1] s2 = self.prices[t2] # 2) Rolling cointegration test try: is_coint = rolling_cointegration_test( s1, s2, window=self.rolling_window, step=self.rolling_step, pval_threshold=self.pval_threshold, min_valid_periods=self.min_valid_periods ) except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Cointegration test failed for {t1}-{t2}: {e}") continue if not is_coint: continue # 3) Compute static OLS hedge ratio on full period # Solve s1 = alpha + beta*s2 + eps X = np.vstack([np.ones(len(s2)), s2.values]).T y = s1.values ols_beta = np.linalg.lstsq(X, y, rcond=None)[0][1] # 4) Compute half-life of spread spread = s1 - ols_beta * s2 hl = half_life(spread) # 5) Save if half-life is finite and reasonable (< window) if np.isfinite(hl) and hl > 0 and hl < self.rolling_window: selected.append({ "ticker1": t1, "ticker2": t2, "beta_ols": ols_beta, "half_life": hl }) logger.info(f"Selected pair {t1}-{t2}: beta={ols_beta:.4f}, half-life={hl:.1f} days.") if not selected: logger.warning("No cointegrated pairs found in the universe.") return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker1", "ticker2", "beta_ols", "half_life"]) return pd.DataFrame(selected)