import pandas as pd import numpy as np import logging from scipy.stats import norm logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) class RiskEngine: """ Computes risk metrics for a strategy or portfolio of pair returns. Includes VaR (historical and parametric), max drawdown, and placeholder for factor neutrality/regression. """ def __init__(self, returns: pd.Series, config: dict): """ :param returns: Series of daily strategy returns. :param config: dict under key 'risk' from config.yaml. """ self.returns = returns.dropna() self.daily_var_window = config["daily_var_window"] self.var_conf = config["var_confidence"] self.max_dd_limit = config["max_drawdown_limit"] def historical_var(self) -> float: """ Historical VaR at confidence level. """ window = min(self.daily_var_window, len(self.returns)) hist = self.returns.tail(window) var_h = np.percentile(hist, (1 - self.var_conf) * 100) logger.info(f"Historical VaR (window={window}, conf={self.var_conf}) = {var_h:.4%}") return var_h def parametric_var(self) -> float: """ Parametric VaR assuming normality. """ mean = self.returns.mean() std = self.returns.std() var_p = mean + std * norm.ppf(1 - self.var_conf) logger.info(f"Parametric VaR (conf={self.var_conf}) = {var_p:.4%}") return var_p def max_drawdown(self) -> float: """ Compute maximum drawdown. """ cum = (1 + self.returns).cumprod() peak = cum.cummax() drawdown = (cum - peak) / peak max_dd = drawdown.min() logger.info(f"Maximum drawdown = {max_dd:.4%}") return max_dd def check_hard_limits(self) -> dict: """ Checks if current drawdown or VaR breaches the configured limits. """ dd = self.max_drawdown() var_h = self.historical_var() alerts = {} if abs(dd) > self.max_dd_limit: alerts["drawdown_breach"] = dd if var_h < -self.max_dd_limit: alerts["var_breach"] = var_h return alerts def stress_test_returns(self, stress_scenario: pd.Series) -> float: """ Given a stress scenario of returns (Series aligned by date or simply a vector of % shocks), compute expected P&L under that stress. For simplicity, sum elementwise product with strategy exposure = 1. """ # This is a placeholder: user should supply a scenario vector. pnl = (self.returns * stress_scenario).sum() logger.info(f"Stress test scenario P&L = {pnl:.4f}") return pnl def factor_neutrality(self, factor_returns: pd.DataFrame) -> dict: """ Regress strategy returns on supplied factor returns to compute betas and R². Returns a dict of factor exposures. """ import statsmodels.api as sm X = sm.add_constant(factor_returns.loc[self.returns.index]) y = self.returns model = sm.OLS(y, X).fit() exposures = model.params.to_dict() r2 = model.rsquared logger.info(f"Factor regression R² = {r2:.4f}, exposures = {exposures}") return {"exposures": exposures, "r2": r2}