import yaml import os import logging import pandas as pd from logger import setup_logger # Import modules from data_loader import DataLoader from pair_selector import PairSelector from kalman_hedge import KalmanHedge from signal_generator import SignalGenerator from backtester import Backtester from risk_engine import RiskEngine from portfolio_optimizer import PortfolioOptimizer # Set up root logger logger = setup_logger("PairTradingStrategy") def load_config(path: str) -> dict: with open(path, "r") as f: cfg = yaml.safe_load(f) return cfg def calc_portfolio_metrics(returns): returns = returns.fillna(0) ann_return = (1 + returns).prod() ** (252 / len(returns)) - 1 ann_vol = returns.std() * (252 ** 0.5) sharpe = ann_return / ann_vol if ann_vol != 0 else float("nan") cum = (1 + returns).cumprod() peak = cum.cummax() drawdown = (cum - peak) / peak max_dd = drawdown.min() return { "annual_return": ann_return, "annual_vol": ann_vol, "sharpe": sharpe, "max_drawdown": max_dd, } def main(): # 1) Load configuration config_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../config.yaml") cfg = load_config(config_path) logger.info("Configuration loaded.") # 2) Fetch data data_cfg = cfg["data"] dl = DataLoader( tickers=data_cfg["tickers"], start_date=data_cfg["start_date"], end_date=data_cfg["end_date"], interval=data_cfg["interval"] ) prices, volume = dl.fetch_data() # 3) Select pairs ps_cfg = cfg["pair_selector"] pair_selector = PairSelector( prices=prices, cluster_size=ps_cfg["cluster_size"], coint_pval_threshold=ps_cfg["coint_pval_threshold"], rolling_window=ps_cfg["rolling_window"], rolling_step=ps_cfg["rolling_step"], min_valid_periods=ps_cfg["min_valid_periods"] ) pairs_df = pair_selector.select_pairs() if pairs_df.empty: logger.error("No suitable pairs found. Exiting.") return logger.info(f"Number of selected pairs: {len(pairs_df)}") # 4) For each selected pair, run Kalman hedge, generate signals, backtest all_pair_returns = {} results_summary = [] for idx, row in pairs_df.iterrows(): t1 = row["ticker1"] t2 = row["ticker2"] logger.info(f"Processing pair {t1}-{t2}.") s1 = prices[t1] s2 = prices[t2] # 4a) Kalman hedge km_cfg = cfg["kalman"] kh = KalmanHedge( observation_series=s1, control_series=s2, initial_state_cov=km_cfg["initial_state_cov"], transition_cov=km_cfg["transition_cov"], observation_cov=km_cfg["observation_cov"], em_iterations=km_cfg["em_iterations"] ) kalman_df = kh.run_filter() # 4b) Signal generation sig_cfg = cfg["signal"] sg = SignalGenerator( price1=s1, price2=s2, kalman_df=kalman_df, config=sig_cfg ) trade_df = sg.generate(costs=cfg["costs"], volume=volume[[t1, t2]]) # 4c) Backtest bt = Backtester( trade_df=trade_df, costs=cfg["costs"], volume=volume[[t1, t2]], ticker1=t1, ticker2=t2, ) bt_results = bt.run() metrics = bt.performance_metrics(bt_results) logger.info(f"Pair {t1}-{t2} metrics: {metrics}") # Store returns series for portfolio optimization all_pair_returns[f"{t1}/{t2}"] = bt_results["strategy_return"] # Summarize results_summary.append({ "pair": f"{t1}/{t2}", **metrics, "half_life": row["half_life"] }) # 5) Aggregate pair returns into DataFrame pair_returns_df = ( pd.DataFrame(all_pair_returns) .dropna(how="all") ) # 6) Save pair_summary.csv summary_df = pd.DataFrame(results_summary) output_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../output") os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) summary_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "pair_summary.csv") summary_df.to_csv(summary_path, index=False) logger.info(f"Saved pair summary to {summary_path}.") # ====== 选取 Sharpe > 0 的配对 ====== selected_pairs = summary_df[summary_df["sharpe"] > 0]["pair"].tolist() if not selected_pairs: logger.warning("No pairs with Sharpe > 0 were found. Portfolio will not be constructed.") return pair_returns_df_selected = pair_returns_df[selected_pairs] logger.info(f"Selected pairs with Sharpe > 0: {selected_pairs}") # 7) Portfolio optimization只用Sharpe>0的pair port_cfg = cfg["portfolio"] po = PortfolioOptimizer( pair_returns=pair_returns_df_selected, min_weight=port_cfg["min_weight"], max_weight=port_cfg["max_weight"] ) weights = po.min_variance() # 8) Compute portfolio P&L portfolio_ret = (pair_returns_df_selected * weights).sum(axis=1) re = RiskEngine(returns=portfolio_ret, config=cfg["risk"]) var_h = re.historical_var() var_p = re.parametric_var() max_dd = re.max_drawdown() logger.info(f"Portfolio VaR (hist) = {var_h:.4%}, (param) = {var_p:.4%}, max DD = {max_dd:.4%}") # 9) 计算并输出整体组合绩效 portfolio_metrics = calc_portfolio_metrics(portfolio_ret) logger.info( f"Portfolio annual_return={portfolio_metrics['annual_return']:.4%}, " f"annual_vol={portfolio_metrics['annual_vol']:.4%}, " f"sharpe={portfolio_metrics['sharpe']:.2f}, " f"max_drawdown={portfolio_metrics['max_drawdown']:.2%}" ) # 10) 保存 portfolio_weights.csv 和 portfolio_metrics.csv weights_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "portfolio_weights.csv") weights.to_csv(weights_path, header=True) logger.info(f"Saved portfolio weights to {weights_path}.") pd.DataFrame([portfolio_metrics]).to_csv( os.path.join(output_dir, "portfolio_metrics.csv"), index=False ) logger.info(f"Saved portfolio metrics to {os.path.join(output_dir, 'portfolio_metrics.csv')}.") logger.info("Backtest pipeline completed successfully.") if __name__ == "__main__": main()