analysis/round3_cot_compare.json

{
  "n_sessions_in_subsample": 60,
  "judges": [
    "claude_sonnet",
    "gemini_3_1_pro",
    "gpt_latest"
  ],
  "paired_score_comparison": {
    "claude_sonnet": {
      "n_paired": 60,
      "mean_delta": 0.215,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.265,
      "pearson_r": 0.4997,
      "pearson_p": 0.0
    },
    "gemini_3_1_pro": {
      "n_paired": 40,
      "mean_delta": 0.1375,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.3575,
      "pearson_r": 0.9162,
      "pearson_p": 0.0
    },
    "gpt_latest": {
      "n_paired": 60,
      "mean_delta": 0.1625,
      "mean_abs_delta": 0.1825,
      "pearson_r": 0.9379,
      "pearson_p": 0.0
    }
  },
  "inter_judge_kappa": {
    "claude_sonnet__vs__gemini_3_1_pro": {
      "n_no_cot": 52,
      "n_cot": 47,
      "kappa_no_cot": 0.1762,
      "kappa_cot": 0.2607,
      "delta_kappa": 0.0845
    },
    "claude_sonnet__vs__gpt_latest": {
      "n_no_cot": 60,
      "n_cot": 60,
      "kappa_no_cot": 0.1799,
      "kappa_cot": 0.1332,
      "delta_kappa": -0.0467
    },
    "gemini_3_1_pro__vs__gpt_latest": {
      "n_no_cot": 52,
      "n_cot": 47,
      "kappa_no_cot": 0.4494,
      "kappa_cot": 0.3552,
      "delta_kappa": -0.0942
    }
  },
  "per_judge_rho_vs_mt_arena": {
    "claude_sonnet": {
      "no_cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.1422,
        "p": 0.5498
      },
      "cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.2591,
        "p": 0.2699
      }
    },
    "gemini_3_1_pro": {
      "no_cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.149,
        "p": 0.5307
      },
      "cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.2297,
        "p": 0.33
      }
    },
    "gpt_latest": {
      "no_cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.2056,
        "p": 0.3846
      },
      "cot": {
        "n_models": 20,
        "rho": 0.2379,
        "p": 0.3126
      }
    }
  }
}