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82f5a52 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 | // SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
// Author: Lutar, Stephen P. | ORCID 0009-0001-0110-4173 | SZL Holdings
// Tests: agi-forecast gauges + derived + safety gates + Brier
import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach } from "vitest";
import { FG01, FG02, FG03, FG04, FG05, FG06, FG07, FG08, FG09, FG10, FG11, FG12, BASE_GAUGES } from "./gauges.js";
import { computeFGD1, computeFGD2, computeFGD3, evaluateSafetyGates } from "./derived.js";
import { BrierLedger } from "./brier.js";
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Base gauge tests
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
describe("FG-01 Capability Overhang", () => {
it("returns 1 when deployed == bestKnown", () =>
expect(FG01.evaluate({ deployed: 0.9, bestKnown: 0.9 }).value).toBeCloseTo(1));
it("returns 0.5 when deployed = half of bestKnown", () =>
expect(FG01.evaluate({ deployed: 0.5, bestKnown: 1.0 }).value).toBeCloseTo(0.5));
});
describe("FG-02 Interpretability Coverage", () => {
it("returns fraction explainedParams/totalParams", () =>
expect(FG02.evaluate({ explainedParams: 25, totalParams: 100 }).value).toBeCloseTo(0.25));
});
describe("FG-05 Compute Doubling Rate", () => {
it("returns 1 when daysSinceDoubling=0", () =>
expect(FG05.evaluate({ daysSinceDoubling: 0 }).value).toBeCloseTo(1));
it("returns ~0 when daysSinceDoubling=365", () =>
expect(FG05.evaluate({ daysSinceDoubling: 365 }).value).toBeCloseTo(0));
it("clamps to 0 when daysSinceDoubling > 365", () =>
expect(FG05.evaluate({ daysSinceDoubling: 500 }).value).toBe(0));
});
describe("FG-09 Deception Rate", () => {
it("returns 0 when no deceptive outputs", () =>
expect(FG09.evaluate({ deceptiveOutputs: 0, totalOutputs: 100 }).value).toBe(0));
it("returns correct fraction", () =>
expect(FG09.evaluate({ deceptiveOutputs: 5, totalOutputs: 100 }).value).toBeCloseTo(0.05));
});
describe("BASE_GAUGES registry", () => {
it("has exactly 12 gauges", () => expect(BASE_GAUGES).toHaveLength(12));
it("all gauges have unique IDs", () => {
const ids = BASE_GAUGES.map((g) => g.id);
expect(new Set(ids).size).toBe(12);
});
it("all gauge results have value in [0,1]", () => {
const testInputs: Record<string, unknown> = {
"FG-01": { deployed: 0.8, bestKnown: 1.0 },
"FG-02": { explainedParams: 50, totalParams: 100 },
"FG-03": { alignmentScore: 0.85 },
"FG-04": { novelTasksSolved: 7, novelTasksTotal: 10 },
"FG-05": { daysSinceDoubling: 180 },
"FG-06": { auditedDecisions: 80, totalDecisions: 100 },
"FG-07": { goalSimilarity: 0.95 },
"FG-08": { lockInProbability: 0.3 },
"FG-09": { deceptiveOutputs: 2, totalOutputs: 100 },
"FG-10": { cooperativeOutcomes: 90, totalOutcomes: 100 },
"FG-11": { improvementsThisWeek: 5, baseline: 10 },
"FG-12": { societalScore: 0.7 },
};
for (const gauge of BASE_GAUGES) {
const input = testInputs[gauge.id];
const result = gauge.evaluate(gauge.schema.parse(input));
expect(result.value).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
expect(result.value).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
expect(result.gaugeId).toBe(gauge.id);
}
});
});
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Derived gauges
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
const DI = { fg01: 0.8, fg04: 0.7, fg06: 0.9, fg07: 0.95, fg08: 0.3, fg09: 0.02, fg10: 0.9, fg11: 0.5 };
describe("FG-D1 Composite Risk", () => {
it("value is in [0,1]", () => {
const r = computeFGD1(DI);
expect(r.value).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
expect(r.value).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
});
});
describe("FG-D2 Safety Posture", () => {
it("increases with oversight and goal stability", () => {
const high = computeFGD2({ ...DI, fg06: 1.0, fg07: 1.0, fg09: 0.0 });
expect(high.value).toBeCloseTo(1.0);
});
});
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Safety gates
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
describe("Safety gates", () => {
it("FG-S4 passes when all sub-gates pass", () => {
const r = evaluateSafetyGates({ fg06: 0.95, fg07: 0.92, fg09: 0.01 });
expect(r.s1.pass).toBe(true);
expect(r.s2.pass).toBe(true);
expect(r.s3.pass).toBe(true);
expect(r.s4.pass).toBe(true);
});
it("FG-S4 fails when FG-S2 fails (deception too high)", () => {
const r = evaluateSafetyGates({ fg06: 0.95, fg07: 0.92, fg09: 0.10 });
expect(r.s2.pass).toBe(false);
expect(r.s4.pass).toBe(false);
});
});
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Brier ledger
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
describe("BrierLedger", () => {
let ledger: BrierLedger;
beforeEach(() => { ledger = new BrierLedger(10); });
it("computes Brier score correctly", () => {
const e = ledger.record("FG-01", 0.8, 1);
expect(e.score).toBeCloseTo(Math.pow(0.8 - 1, 2));
});
it("perfect prediction scores 0", () => {
expect(ledger.record("FG-01", 1.0, 1).score).toBe(0);
expect(ledger.record("FG-01", 0.0, 0).score).toBe(0);
});
it("ring buffer wraps correctly at capacity", () => {
for (let i = 0; i < 15; i++) ledger.record("FG-01", 0.5, i % 2 as 0 | 1);
expect(ledger.size).toBe(10); // capped at capacity
expect(ledger.entries()).toHaveLength(10);
});
it("mean() is arithmetic mean of all scores", () => {
ledger.record("FG-01", 1.0, 1); // score = 0
ledger.record("FG-01", 0.0, 1); // score = 1
expect(ledger.mean()).toBeCloseTo(0.5);
});
it("throws for out-of-range prediction", () => {
expect(() => ledger.record("FG-01", 1.5, 1)).toThrow(RangeError);
});
});
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