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82f5a52 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 | // SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
// Author: Lutar, Stephen P. | ORCID 0009-0001-0110-4173 | SZL Holdings
// Module: agi-forecast — FG-01..FG-12 gauge implementations
// Doctrine V6 preflight: ✓
import { z } from "zod";
import type { Gauge, GaugeResult } from "./gauge-types.js";
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Helper
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
function clamp(v: number): number { return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, v)); }
function makeResult(id: string, label: string, value: number): GaugeResult {
return { gaugeId: id, value: clamp(value), brier_input: clamp(value), label, timestamp: new Date().toISOString() };
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-01: Capability overhang — ratio of deployed / best-known capability
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG01Schema = z.object({ deployed: z.number().min(0).max(1), bestKnown: z.number().min(0).max(1) });
export type FG01Input = z.infer<typeof FG01Schema>;
export const FG01: Gauge<FG01Input> = {
id: "FG-01", label: "Capability Overhang",
schema: FG01Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-01", "Capability Overhang", i.bestKnown > 0 ? i.deployed / i.bestKnown : 0),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-02: Interpretability coverage — fraction of model internals explained
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG02Schema = z.object({ explainedParams: z.number().min(0), totalParams: z.number().min(1) });
export type FG02Input = z.infer<typeof FG02Schema>;
export const FG02: Gauge<FG02Input> = {
id: "FG-02", label: "Interpretability Coverage",
schema: FG02Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-02", "Interpretability Coverage", i.explainedParams / i.totalParams),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-03: Alignment confidence — composite self-reported score [0,1]
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG03Schema = z.object({ alignmentScore: z.number().min(0).max(1) });
export const FG03: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG03Schema>> = {
id: "FG-03", label: "Alignment Confidence",
schema: FG03Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-03", "Alignment Confidence", i.alignmentScore),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-04: Task generalisation — fraction of novel tasks solved
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG04Schema = z.object({ novelTasksSolved: z.number().min(0), novelTasksTotal: z.number().min(1) });
export const FG04: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG04Schema>> = {
id: "FG-04", label: "Task Generalisation",
schema: FG04Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-04", "Task Generalisation", i.novelTasksSolved / i.novelTasksTotal),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-05: Compute doubling time — normalised days since last doubling (lower=faster)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG05Schema = z.object({ daysSinceDoubling: z.number().min(0) });
export const FG05: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG05Schema>> = {
id: "FG-05", label: "Compute Doubling Rate",
schema: FG05Schema,
// Score = 1 - normalised days (faster doubling → higher score)
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-05", "Compute Doubling Rate", clamp(1 - i.daysSinceDoubling / 365)),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-06: Oversight coverage — fraction of model decisions audited
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG06Schema = z.object({ auditedDecisions: z.number().min(0), totalDecisions: z.number().min(1) });
export const FG06: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG06Schema>> = {
id: "FG-06", label: "Oversight Coverage",
schema: FG06Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-06", "Oversight Coverage", i.auditedDecisions / i.totalDecisions),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-07: Goal stability — cosine similarity of goal embeddings over time
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG07Schema = z.object({ goalSimilarity: z.number().min(0).max(1) });
export const FG07: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG07Schema>> = {
id: "FG-07", label: "Goal Stability",
schema: FG07Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-07", "Goal Stability", i.goalSimilarity),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-08: Value lock-in risk — estimated probability of value lock-in [0,1]
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG08Schema = z.object({ lockInProbability: z.number().min(0).max(1) });
export const FG08: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG08Schema>> = {
id: "FG-08", label: "Value Lock-in Risk",
schema: FG08Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-08", "Value Lock-in Risk", i.lockInProbability),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-09: Deception rate — fraction of detected deceptive outputs
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG09Schema = z.object({ deceptiveOutputs: z.number().min(0), totalOutputs: z.number().min(1) });
export const FG09: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG09Schema>> = {
id: "FG-09", label: "Deception Rate",
schema: FG09Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-09", "Deception Rate", i.deceptiveOutputs / i.totalOutputs),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-10: Cooperation index — fraction of cooperative vs defective game outcomes
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG10Schema = z.object({ cooperativeOutcomes: z.number().min(0), totalOutcomes: z.number().min(1) });
export const FG10: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG10Schema>> = {
id: "FG-10", label: "Cooperation Index",
schema: FG10Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-10", "Cooperation Index", i.cooperativeOutcomes / i.totalOutcomes),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-11: Recursive self-improvement rate — iterations per week
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG11Schema = z.object({ improvementsThisWeek: z.number().min(0), baseline: z.number().min(1) });
export const FG11: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG11Schema>> = {
id: "FG-11", label: "RSI Rate",
schema: FG11Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-11", "RSI Rate", clamp(i.improvementsThisWeek / i.baseline)),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// FG-12: Societal impact index — composite normalised score
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export const FG12Schema = z.object({ societalScore: z.number().min(0).max(1) });
export const FG12: Gauge<z.infer<typeof FG12Schema>> = {
id: "FG-12", label: "Societal Impact",
schema: FG12Schema,
evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-12", "Societal Impact", i.societalScore),
};
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// All base gauges registry
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any
export const BASE_GAUGES: Gauge<any>[] = [
FG01, FG02, FG03, FG04, FG05, FG06, FG07, FG08, FG09, FG10, FG11, FG12,
];
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