// SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0 // Author: Lutar, Stephen P. | ORCID 0009-0001-0110-4173 | SZL Holdings // Module: agi-forecast — FG-01..FG-12 gauge implementations // Doctrine V6 preflight: ✓ import { z } from "zod"; import type { Gauge, GaugeResult } from "./gauge-types.js"; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // Helper // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- function clamp(v: number): number { return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, v)); } function makeResult(id: string, label: string, value: number): GaugeResult { return { gaugeId: id, value: clamp(value), brier_input: clamp(value), label, timestamp: new Date().toISOString() }; } // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-01: Capability overhang — ratio of deployed / best-known capability // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG01Schema = z.object({ deployed: z.number().min(0).max(1), bestKnown: z.number().min(0).max(1) }); export type FG01Input = z.infer; export const FG01: Gauge = { id: "FG-01", label: "Capability Overhang", schema: FG01Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-01", "Capability Overhang", i.bestKnown > 0 ? i.deployed / i.bestKnown : 0), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-02: Interpretability coverage — fraction of model internals explained // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG02Schema = z.object({ explainedParams: z.number().min(0), totalParams: z.number().min(1) }); export type FG02Input = z.infer; export const FG02: Gauge = { id: "FG-02", label: "Interpretability Coverage", schema: FG02Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-02", "Interpretability Coverage", i.explainedParams / i.totalParams), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-03: Alignment confidence — composite self-reported score [0,1] // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG03Schema = z.object({ alignmentScore: z.number().min(0).max(1) }); export const FG03: Gauge> = { id: "FG-03", label: "Alignment Confidence", schema: FG03Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-03", "Alignment Confidence", i.alignmentScore), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-04: Task generalisation — fraction of novel tasks solved // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG04Schema = z.object({ novelTasksSolved: z.number().min(0), novelTasksTotal: z.number().min(1) }); export const FG04: Gauge> = { id: "FG-04", label: "Task Generalisation", schema: FG04Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-04", "Task Generalisation", i.novelTasksSolved / i.novelTasksTotal), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-05: Compute doubling time — normalised days since last doubling (lower=faster) // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG05Schema = z.object({ daysSinceDoubling: z.number().min(0) }); export const FG05: Gauge> = { id: "FG-05", label: "Compute Doubling Rate", schema: FG05Schema, // Score = 1 - normalised days (faster doubling → higher score) evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-05", "Compute Doubling Rate", clamp(1 - i.daysSinceDoubling / 365)), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-06: Oversight coverage — fraction of model decisions audited // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG06Schema = z.object({ auditedDecisions: z.number().min(0), totalDecisions: z.number().min(1) }); export const FG06: Gauge> = { id: "FG-06", label: "Oversight Coverage", schema: FG06Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-06", "Oversight Coverage", i.auditedDecisions / i.totalDecisions), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-07: Goal stability — cosine similarity of goal embeddings over time // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG07Schema = z.object({ goalSimilarity: z.number().min(0).max(1) }); export const FG07: Gauge> = { id: "FG-07", label: "Goal Stability", schema: FG07Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-07", "Goal Stability", i.goalSimilarity), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-08: Value lock-in risk — estimated probability of value lock-in [0,1] // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG08Schema = z.object({ lockInProbability: z.number().min(0).max(1) }); export const FG08: Gauge> = { id: "FG-08", label: "Value Lock-in Risk", schema: FG08Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-08", "Value Lock-in Risk", i.lockInProbability), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-09: Deception rate — fraction of detected deceptive outputs // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG09Schema = z.object({ deceptiveOutputs: z.number().min(0), totalOutputs: z.number().min(1) }); export const FG09: Gauge> = { id: "FG-09", label: "Deception Rate", schema: FG09Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-09", "Deception Rate", i.deceptiveOutputs / i.totalOutputs), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-10: Cooperation index — fraction of cooperative vs defective game outcomes // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG10Schema = z.object({ cooperativeOutcomes: z.number().min(0), totalOutcomes: z.number().min(1) }); export const FG10: Gauge> = { id: "FG-10", label: "Cooperation Index", schema: FG10Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-10", "Cooperation Index", i.cooperativeOutcomes / i.totalOutcomes), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-11: Recursive self-improvement rate — iterations per week // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG11Schema = z.object({ improvementsThisWeek: z.number().min(0), baseline: z.number().min(1) }); export const FG11: Gauge> = { id: "FG-11", label: "RSI Rate", schema: FG11Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-11", "RSI Rate", clamp(i.improvementsThisWeek / i.baseline)), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // FG-12: Societal impact index — composite normalised score // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- export const FG12Schema = z.object({ societalScore: z.number().min(0).max(1) }); export const FG12: Gauge> = { id: "FG-12", label: "Societal Impact", schema: FG12Schema, evaluate: (i) => makeResult("FG-12", "Societal Impact", i.societalScore), }; // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // All base gauges registry // --------------------------------------------------------------------------- // eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any export const BASE_GAUGES: Gauge[] = [ FG01, FG02, FG03, FG04, FG05, FG06, FG07, FG08, FG09, FG10, FG11, FG12, ];