File size: 2,463 Bytes
a8b4b87 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 | import type { RelayOutcome } from './types';
import { RELAY_SYNC_SPECS } from './run-events';
function lcg(seed: number) {
let s = seed >>> 0;
return () => {
s = (Math.imul(s, 1664525) + 1013904223) >>> 0;
return s / 0x100000000;
};
}
const METRIC_BY_VERTICAL: Record<string, { metric: string; unit: number }> = {
lyte: { metric: 'arr_uplift_cents', unit: 1_000_000 },
terra: { metric: 'leases_signed_per_week', unit: 5 },
vessels: { metric: 'eta_accuracy_pct', unit: 1 },
counsel: { metric: 'matter_response_hours', unit: 24 },
carlota: { metric: 'engagement_pulse', unit: 1 },
aegis: { metric: 'mttr_minutes', unit: 60 },
sentra: { metric: 'detection_coverage_pct', unit: 1 },
};
function build(): readonly RelayOutcome[] {
const out: RelayOutcome[] = [];
const now = Date.parse('2026-05-05T03:00:00Z');
let id = 0;
for (const sync of RELAY_SYNC_SPECS) {
const def = METRIC_BY_VERTICAL[sync.vertical];
const rng = lcg(0xc0d30a55 ^ (id * 0x9e3779b1));
// 2–3 outcome observations per sync over the last 14 days
const obsCount = 2 + (id % 2);
for (let i = 0; i < obsCount; i++) {
const observedAt = new Date(now - (i + 1) * 86_400_000 * 2).toISOString();
const predicted = (0.6 + rng() * 0.5) * def.unit;
const errorPct = (rng() - 0.5) * 0.3; // -15%..+15%
const actual = predicted * (1 + errorPct);
const lift = (rng() * 0.18) - 0.02; // mostly positive
out.push({
id: `out-${sync.id}-${i}`,
syncId: sync.id,
syncName: sync.name,
verticalId: sync.vertical,
destinationId: sync.destinationId,
observedAtIso: observedAt,
predictedMetric: def.metric,
predictedValue: Math.round(predicted * 100) / 100,
actualValue: Math.round(actual * 100) / 100,
predictionError: Math.round(errorPct * 1000) / 1000,
liftPct: Math.round(lift * 1000) / 1000,
lessonLearned:
lift > 0.08
? 'Strong lift — recommend cadence increase.'
: lift < 0
? 'Negative lift — propose retirement review.'
: 'Within expected envelope; hold cadence.',
policyUpdateCandidate: Math.abs(errorPct) > 0.12,
evidenceRef: `evidence/${sync.id}/outcome/${i}`,
});
id++;
}
}
return out.sort((a, b) => (a.observedAtIso < b.observedAtIso ? 1 : -1));
}
export const RELAY_OUTCOMES: readonly RelayOutcome[] = build();
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