import { type DriverTweak, distributionSupportsSpread, IDENTITY_TWEAK, isIdentityTweak, tweakedInputs, tweakSummary, } from '@szl-holdings/monte-carlo'; import { runScenarioInPool } from '@szl-holdings/monte-carlo/scenario-pool'; import { type MonteCarloResult, runScenarioSimulation as runScenarioSimulationSync, } from '@szl-holdings/monte-carlo/scenario-simulation'; import type { InputVariable, ScenarioDefinition } from '@szl-holdings/monte-carlo/schema'; import { DriverTweakPresets } from '@szl-holdings/shared-ui/driver-tweak-presets'; import { LANE_ACCENT_HEX } from '@szl-holdings/shared-ui/lane-colors'; import { type SavedRiskRun, SaveRiskRunButton } from '@szl-holdings/shared-ui/risk-evidence'; import { motion } from 'framer-motion'; import { Activity, BarChart3, BookmarkPlus, ChevronDown, ChevronUp, Layers, RefreshCw, RotateCcw, Sliders, X, } from 'lucide-react'; import { useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useState } from 'react'; import RiskSimulationWorker from '@/workers/risk-simulation.worker?worker'; const VESSELS_ACCENT = LANE_ACCENT_HEX.vessels.primaryLight; export type { MonteCarloResult }; export { runScenarioSimulationSync as runScenarioSimulation }; interface SimulationProgressState { completed: number; total: number; } function formatValue(value: number, format?: string): string { if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return '—'; if (format === 'currency') { const abs = Math.abs(value); if (abs >= 1000) return `$${(value / 1000).toFixed(1)}K`; return `$${value.toFixed(2)}`; } if (format === 'percentage') return `${value.toFixed(1)}%`; if (format === 'years') return `${value.toFixed(1)}y`; return value.toLocaleString(undefined, { maximumFractionDigits: 2 }); } function formatSignedValue(value: number, format?: string): string { if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return '—'; const sign = value > 0 ? '+' : value < 0 ? '−' : ''; return `${sign}${formatValue(Math.abs(value), format)}`; } function formatPctDelta(curr: number, base: number): string { if (!Number.isFinite(curr) || !Number.isFinite(base) || base === 0) return '—'; const pct = ((curr - base) / Math.abs(base)) * 100; const sign = pct > 0 ? '+' : pct < 0 ? '−' : ''; return `${sign}${Math.abs(pct).toFixed(1)}%`; } interface BaselineSnapshot { result: MonteCarloResult; capturedAt: number; tweakCount: number; } interface RiskSimulationPanelProps { scenario: ScenarioDefinition; iterations?: number; accentColor?: string; title?: string; subtitle?: string; evidenceDomain?: string; } export function RiskSimulationPanel({ scenario, iterations = 5000, accentColor = VESSELS_ACCENT, title, subtitle, evidenceDomain = 'vessels', }: RiskSimulationPanelProps) { const [result, setResult] = useState(null); const [iterCount, setIterCount] = useState(iterations); const [running, setRunning] = useState(true); const [progress, setProgress] = useState(null); const [runKey, setRunKey] = useState(0); const requestIdRef = useRef(0); const [tweaks, setTweaks] = useState>({}); const [showTweaks, setShowTweaks] = useState(false); const [appliedTweaks, setAppliedTweaks] = useState>({}); const [baseline, setBaseline] = useState(null); useEffect(() => { setTweaks({}); setAppliedTweaks({}); setBaseline(null); }, [scenario.id]); const modifiedIds = useMemo( () => new Set(Object.keys(appliedTweaks).filter((id) => !isIdentityTweak(appliedTweaks[id]))), [appliedTweaks], ); const effectiveScenario = useMemo(() => { if (modifiedIds.size === 0) return scenario; const inputs = tweakedInputs(scenario.inputs, appliedTweaks); return { ...scenario, inputs }; }, [scenario, appliedTweaks, modifiedIds]); useEffect(() => { setRunning(true); setProgress(null); const requestId = ++requestIdRef.current; const tweaksActive = modifiedIds.size > 0; let cancelled = false; // Workers only know registered scenarios by id and cannot apply // user-supplied driver tweaks, so we fall back to a synchronous run // on the main thread whenever overrides are in effect. if (!tweaksActive) { let workerCreationFailed = false; try { // Probe the worker constructor; if it throws we'll fall through // to the synchronous path below. new RiskSimulationWorker().terminate(); } catch { workerCreationFailed = true; } if (!workerCreationFailed) { runScenarioInPool({ scenario: effectiveScenario, iterations: iterCount, workerFactory: () => new RiskSimulationWorker(), onProgress: (p) => { if (cancelled || requestId !== requestIdRef.current) return; setProgress({ completed: p.completed, total: p.total }); }, }) .then((r) => { if (cancelled || requestId !== requestIdRef.current) return; setResult(r); setProgress(null); setRunning(false); }) .catch((_err) => { if (cancelled || requestId !== requestIdRef.current) return; try { const r = runScenarioSimulationSync(effectiveScenario, iterCount); if (requestId === requestIdRef.current) setResult(r); } finally { if (requestId === requestIdRef.current) { setProgress(null); setRunning(false); } } }); return () => { cancelled = true; }; } } // Fallback: synchronous run via setTimeout if workers are unavailable // or if driver tweaks are active. const handle = window.setTimeout(() => { try { const r = runScenarioSimulationSync(effectiveScenario, iterCount); if (requestId === requestIdRef.current) setResult(r); } finally { if (requestId === requestIdRef.current) { setProgress(null); setRunning(false); } } }, 30); return () => { cancelled = true; window.clearTimeout(handle); }; }, [effectiveScenario, scenario.id, iterCount, runKey, modifiedIds]); const pendingChanges = useMemo(() => { const ids = new Set([...Object.keys(tweaks), ...Object.keys(appliedTweaks)]); for (const id of ids) { const a = tweaks[id] ?? IDENTITY_TWEAK; const b = appliedTweaks[id] ?? IDENTITY_TWEAK; if (Math.abs(a.meanMultiplier - b.meanMultiplier) > 1e-9) return true; if (Math.abs(a.spreadMultiplier - b.spreadMultiplier) > 1e-9) return true; } return false; }, [tweaks, appliedTweaks]); const updateTweak = (id: string, patch: Partial) => { setTweaks((prev) => { const current = prev[id] ?? IDENTITY_TWEAK; return { ...prev, [id]: { ...current, ...patch } }; }); }; const resetInput = (id: string) => { setTweaks((prev) => ({ ...prev, [id]: { ...IDENTITY_TWEAK } })); }; const resetAll = () => { setTweaks({}); setAppliedTweaks({}); }; const applyAndRun = () => { setAppliedTweaks({ ...tweaks }); setRunKey((k) => k + 1); }; const captureBaseline = () => { if (!result) return; setBaseline({ result, capturedAt: Date.now(), tweakCount: modifiedIds.size }); }; const clearBaseline = () => setBaseline(null); const loadPresetTweaks = (preset: Record) => { setTweaks(preset); setAppliedTweaks(preset); setRunKey((k) => k + 1); }; const primary = scenario.outputs[0]; const primaryMetric = primary ? result?.metrics[primary.id] : undefined; const metricRows = useMemo(() => { if (!result) return []; return scenario.outputs .map((o) => ({ id: o.id, label: o.label, format: o.format, stat: result.metrics[o.id], })) .filter((r) => r.stat); }, [result, scenario]); const maxP95 = useMemo(() => { const vals = metricRows.map((r) => Math.abs(r.stat?.p95 ?? 0)); if (baseline) { for (const o of scenario.outputs) { const m = baseline.result.metrics[o.id]; if (m) vals.push(Math.abs(m.p95)); } } return Math.max(...vals, 0.0001); }, [metricRows, baseline, scenario]); const baselineCapturedLabel = useMemo(() => { if (!baseline) return null; const t = new Date(baseline.capturedAt); const hh = String(t.getHours()).padStart(2, '0'); const mm = String(t.getMinutes()).padStart(2, '0'); const ss = String(t.getSeconds()).padStart(2, '0'); const tweakDesc = baseline.tweakCount === 0 ? 'no tweaks' : `${baseline.tweakCount} tweak${baseline.tweakCount === 1 ? '' : 's'}`; return `Baseline captured ${hh}:${mm}:${ss} · ${tweakDesc}`; }, [baseline]); return (

{title ?? scenario.title}

{subtitle ?? scenario.description}

{baseline ? ( ) : ( )} { if (!result) return null; const payload: Omit = { scenarioId: scenario.id, scenarioVersion: scenario.version, scenarioTitle: title ?? scenario.title, domain: scenario.domain, iterations: result.iterations, validIterations: result.validIterations, durationMs: result.durationMs, metrics: scenario.outputs .map((o) => { const m = result.metrics[o.id]; if (!m) return null; return { id: o.id, label: m.label, format: m.format, mean: m.mean, p5: m.p5, p25: m.p25, p50: m.p50, p75: m.p75, p95: m.p95, min: m.min, max: m.max, stdDev: m.stdDev, }; }) .filter((x): x is NonNullable => x !== null), sensitivities: result.inputSensitivity.map((s) => ({ inputId: s.inputId, label: s.label, impact: s.impact, })), inputs: effectiveScenario.inputs.map((inp) => ({ id: inp.id, label: inp.label, unit: inp.unit, format: inp.format, distribution: inp.distribution, })), }; return payload; }} />
{showTweaks && ( )}
Iterations
{running && progress ? `${progress.completed.toLocaleString()} / ${progress.total.toLocaleString()}` : (result?.iterations.toLocaleString() ?? '—')}
{running && progress && (
)}
Valid Runs
{result?.validIterations.toLocaleString() ?? '—'}
Compute
{result ? `${result.durationMs.toFixed(0)}ms` : '—'}
Domain
{result?.domain ?? scenario.domain}

Output Distributions — {result?.scenarioId ?? scenario.id}

{baselineCapturedLabel && (
{baselineCapturedLabel} current run
)}
{metricRows.map(({ id, label, format, stat }, rowIdx) => { if (!stat) return null; const baseStat = baseline?.result.metrics[id]; const p95 = Math.abs(stat.p95); const p5 = Math.abs(stat.p5); const mean = Math.abs(stat.mean); const p95Pct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (p95 / maxP95) * 100) : 0; const p5Pct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (p5 / maxP95) * 100) : 0; const iqrPct = Math.max(0, p95Pct - p5Pct); const meanPct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (mean / maxP95) * 100) : 0; const delay = rowIdx * 0.1; const meanDelta = baseStat ? stat.mean - baseStat.mean : 0; return (
{label} {formatValue(stat.mean, format)}{' '} (mean) {baseStat && ( Δ {formatSignedValue(meanDelta, format)} ( {formatPctDelta(stat.mean, baseStat.mean)}) )}
{baseStat && (() => { const bP95 = Math.abs(baseStat.p95); const bP5 = Math.abs(baseStat.p5); const bMean = Math.abs(baseStat.mean); const bP95Pct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (bP95 / maxP95) * 100) : 0; const bP5Pct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (bP5 / maxP95) * 100) : 0; const bIqrPct = Math.max(0, bP95Pct - bP5Pct); const bMeanPct = maxP95 > 0 ? Math.min(100, (bMean / maxP95) * 100) : 0; return (
); })()}
P5: {formatValue(stat.p5, format)} P25: {formatValue(stat.p25, format)} P50: {formatValue(stat.p50, format)} P75: {formatValue(stat.p75, format)} P95: {formatValue(stat.p95, format)}
{baseStat && (
base P5: {formatValue(baseStat.p5, format)} P25: {formatValue(baseStat.p25, format)} P50: {formatValue(baseStat.p50, format)} P75: {formatValue(baseStat.p75, format)} P95: {formatValue(baseStat.p95, format)}
)}
); })}

Input Sensitivity{primary ? ` (Correlation to ${primary.label})` : ''}

{result?.inputSensitivity.slice(0, 8).map((item, i) => (
{item.label} {modifiedIds.has(item.inputId) && ( tweaked )}
{(item.impact * 100).toFixed(0)}%
)) ?? null} {!result && (

Sampling driver impact…

)}

Risk Bands

{primary && primaryMetric && (() => { const basePrimary = baseline?.result.metrics[primary.id]; const renderDelta = (curr: number, base: number | undefined) => { if (base === undefined || !Number.isFinite(base)) return null; return ( Δ {formatSignedValue(curr - base, primary.format)} ({formatPctDelta(curr, base)} ) ); }; const baseLine = (text: string) => (
base · {text}
); return ( <>
Standard Deviation
{formatValue(primaryMetric.stdDev, primary.format)} {renderDelta(primaryMetric.stdDev, basePrimary?.stdDev)}
{basePrimary && baseLine(formatValue(basePrimary.stdDev, primary.format))}
90% Confidence Band
{formatValue(primaryMetric.p5, primary.format)} –{' '} {formatValue(primaryMetric.p95, primary.format)} {renderDelta( primaryMetric.p95 - primaryMetric.p5, basePrimary ? basePrimary.p95 - basePrimary.p5 : undefined, )}
{basePrimary && baseLine( `${formatValue(basePrimary.p5, primary.format)} – ${formatValue(basePrimary.p95, primary.format)}`, )}
50% Interquartile
{formatValue(primaryMetric.p25, primary.format)} –{' '} {formatValue(primaryMetric.p75, primary.format)} {renderDelta( primaryMetric.p75 - primaryMetric.p25, basePrimary ? basePrimary.p75 - basePrimary.p25 : undefined, )}
{basePrimary && baseLine( `${formatValue(basePrimary.p25, primary.format)} – ${formatValue(basePrimary.p75, primary.format)}`, )}
Range
{formatValue(primaryMetric.min, primary.format)} →{' '} {formatValue(primaryMetric.max, primary.format)}
{basePrimary && baseLine( `${formatValue(basePrimary.min, primary.format)} → ${formatValue(basePrimary.max, primary.format)}`, )}
Mean
{formatValue(primaryMetric.mean, primary.format)} {renderDelta(primaryMetric.mean, basePrimary?.mean)}
{basePrimary && baseLine(formatValue(basePrimary.mean, primary.format))}
); })()}
); } interface DriverTweaksPanelProps { inputs: InputVariable[]; tweaks: Record; accentColor: string; onChange: (id: string, patch: Partial) => void; onResetInput: (id: string) => void; onResetAll: () => void; onApply: () => void; pendingChanges: boolean; modifiedIds: Set; running: boolean; presetScopeKey: string; onLoadPreset: (tweaks: Record) => void; } function formatDriverValue(value: number, format?: string): string { if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return '—'; if (format === 'currency') { const abs = Math.abs(value); if (abs >= 1_000_000) return `$${(value / 1_000_000).toFixed(2)}M`; if (abs >= 1000) return `$${(value / 1000).toFixed(1)}K`; return `$${value.toFixed(2)}`; } if (format === 'percentage') return `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; if (format === 'years') return `${value.toFixed(1)}y`; return value.toLocaleString(undefined, { maximumFractionDigits: 3 }); } function DriverTweaksPanel({ inputs, tweaks, accentColor, onChange, onResetInput, onResetAll, onApply, pendingChanges, modifiedIds, running, presetScopeKey, onLoadPreset, }: DriverTweaksPanelProps) { return (

Driver Assumptions — override before re-running

{inputs.map((inp) => { const t = tweaks[inp.id] ?? IDENTITY_TWEAK; const baseline = tweakSummary(inp.distribution); const projectedCenter = baseline.center * t.meanMultiplier; const projectedSpread = baseline.spread * t.spreadMultiplier; const supportsSpread = distributionSupportsSpread(inp.distribution); const isModified = modifiedIds.has(inp.id) || !isIdentityTweak(t); return (
{inp.label} {isModified && ( modified )}
baseline {formatDriverValue(baseline.center, inp.format)} {supportsSpread && baseline.spread > 0 ? ` ± ${formatDriverValue(baseline.spread, inp.format)}` : ''} → {formatDriverValue(projectedCenter, inp.format)} {supportsSpread && projectedSpread > 0 ? ` ± ${formatDriverValue(projectedSpread, inp.format)}` : ''}
Mean onChange(inp.id, { meanMultiplier: Number(e.target.value) })} className="flex-1 accent-current" style={{ accentColor }} aria-label={`${inp.label} mean multiplier`} /> 1e-9 ? accentColor : 'rgba(255,255,255,0.6)', }} > {(t.meanMultiplier * 100).toFixed(0)}%
{supportsSpread && (
Spread onChange(inp.id, { spreadMultiplier: Number(e.target.value) }) } className="flex-1" style={{ accentColor }} aria-label={`${inp.label} spread multiplier`} /> 1e-9 ? accentColor : 'rgba(255,255,255,0.6)', }} > {t.spreadMultiplier.toFixed(2)}×
)}
); })}
); }