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README.md
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data_files:
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- split: full
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path: data/full-*
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---
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data_files:
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- split: full
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path: data/full-*
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+
license: mit
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language:
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- en
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---
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+
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# NFL Wide Receiver Performance Dataset (2019)
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## Dataset Description
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This dataset contains comprehensive wide receiver performance statistics derived from NFL play-by-play data for the **2019**. It includes game-level metrics, situational targeting patterns, defensive adjustments, and advanced efficiency calculations.
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### Dataset Summary
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- **Season**: 2015
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- **Records**: ~4.31k player-game observations
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- **Features**: 100+ columns including:
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- Core statistics (targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns)
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- Quarter-by-quarter breakdowns
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- Win probability bucketed performance
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- Defensive strength adjustments
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- Situational metrics (red zone, high leverage, down-and-distance)
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- Team share metrics (target share, air yards share, WOPR)
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- Efficiency metrics (aDOT, yards per target, catch rate)
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- Weather and venue conditions
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### Supported Tasks
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- **Receiving Yards Prediction**: Predict receiving yards for upcoming games
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- **Target Share Analysis**: Model player opportunity distribution
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- **Performance Forecasting**: Project future player performance
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- **Matchup Analysis**: Evaluate player-defense matchups
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## Dataset Structure
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### Data Fields
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**Key Identifiers:**
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- `game_id`: Unique game identifier
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- `receiver_player_id`: NFL GSIS player ID
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- `receiver_player_name`: Player display name
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- `passer_player_id`: Quarterback player ID
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- `season`: NFL season year
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- `week`: Week number
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**Core Statistics:**
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- `targets`: Total pass attempts targeting the receiver
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- `receptions`: Completed receptions
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- `receiving_yards`: Total receiving yards
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- `tds`: Receiving touchdowns
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- `air_yards`: Total air yards on targets
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- `yac`: Yards after catch
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**Quarter Breakdowns:**
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- `yards_Q1`, `yards_Q2`, `yards_Q3`, `yards_Q4`: Yards by quarter
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- `receptions_Q1-4`: Receptions by quarter
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- `targets_Q1-4`: Targets by quarter
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**Win Probability Buckets:**
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- `yards_wp_<25`, `yards_wp_25_45`, etc.: Performance in different game situations
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- Similar breakdowns for receptions and targets
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**Share Metrics:**
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- `target_share`: Player's share of team targets
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- `air_yards_share`: Player's share of team air yards
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- `yard_share`: Player's share of team receiving yards
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- `reception_share`: Player's share of team receptions
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- `wopr`: Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.7 × target_share + 0.3 × air_yards_share)
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**Efficiency Metrics:**
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- `aDOT`: Average depth of target
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- `yards_per_target`: Receiving yards per target
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- `catch_rate`: Reception percentage
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- `yac_per_rec`: Yards after catch per reception
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- `explosive_rec_pct`: Percentage of receptions ≥15 yards
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- `first_down_pct`: Percentage of receptions resulting in first downs
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**Defensive Adjustments:**
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- `def_targets_dev`: Defense targets allowed vs league average
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- `def_receptions_dev`: Defense receptions allowed vs league average
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- `def_yards_dev`: Defense yards allowed vs league average
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- `def_tds_dev`: Defense TDs allowed vs league average
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- `def_epa_dev`: Defense EPA allowed vs league average
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- `adj_epa`: Defense-adjusted Expected Points Added
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- `adj_epa_per_target`: Defense-adjusted EPA per target
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**Situational Metrics:**
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- `red_zone_targets`: Targets inside the 20-yard line
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- `end_zone_targets`: Targets in the end zone
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- `third_down_targets`: Targets on 3rd down
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- `fourth_down_targets`: Targets on 4th down
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- `high_leverage_targets`: Targets in high-leverage situations (WP < 0.25 or > 0.75)
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- `red_zone_share`: Player's share of team red zone targets
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- `third_down_share`: Player's share of team 3rd down targets
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**Game Context:**
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- `posteam`: Player's team (encoded 1-32)
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- `defteam`: Opposing defense (encoded 1-32)
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- `home_team`: Home team (encoded 1-32)
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- `away_team`: Away team (encoded 1-32)
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- `home_flag`: 0 if home, 1 if away
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- `pregame_spread`: Betting line point spread
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- `pregame_total`: Betting line total points
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- `avg_score_diff`: Average score differential when targeted
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- `avg_quarter`: Average quarter when targeted
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- `trailing_pct`: Percentage of targets while trailing
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- `leading_pct`: Percentage of targets while leading
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**Weather & Venue:**
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- `surface`: Playing surface type (encoded 0-6)
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- `is_dome`: 1 if indoor, 0 if outdoor
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- `is_rain`: 1 if rainy conditions
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- `is_snow`: 1 if snowy conditions
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- `is_clear`: 1 if clear conditions
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- `temp_f`: Temperature in Fahrenheit
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- `humidity_pct`: Humidity percentage
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- `wind_mph`: Wind speed in miles per hour
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**QB Context:**
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- `qb_completions`: Quarterback's completions that game
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- `qb_attempts`: Quarterback's attempts that game
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- `qb_comp_pct`: Quarterback's completion percentage
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- `qb_air_yards`: Quarterback's average air yards
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- `qb_cpoe`: Quarterback's completion percentage over expected
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**Advanced Metrics:**
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- `epa`: Expected Points Added
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- `wpa`: Win Probability Added
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- `success_rate`: Percentage of successful plays (EPA > 0 or YPT > 0.5)
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- `big_play_rate`: Percentage of plays ≥20 yards
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- `explosive_plays`: Count of plays ≥20 yards
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- `first_downs`: First downs generated
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- `consistency_score`: mean_adj_epa / std_adj_epa
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- `inverse_volatility`: 1 / std_adj_epa
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- `season_adj_epa_per_target`: Season-level defense-adjusted EPA per target
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- `wp_var`: Variance in win probability across targets
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- `target_share_std`: Standard deviation of target share across games
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### Data Splits
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This dataset does not include pre-defined splits. Users should create their own train/validation/test splits based on their use case:
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- **Time-based split**: Use early weeks for training, later weeks for validation/testing
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- **Cross-validation**: K-fold cross-validation across games
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- **Season holdout**: Train on this season, test on future seasons
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### Dataset Creation
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#### Source Data
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Raw play-by-play data sourced from [nflverse](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp), which aggregates official NFL data with additional features.
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#### Data Processing
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The dataset was created through two complementary processing pipelines:
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1. **Pipeline A (Defensive Adjustments)**:
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- Calculates defense-adjusted performance metrics
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- Adds situational targeting patterns
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- Includes QB context and team-level statistics
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- Incorporates weather and venue conditions
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2. **Pipeline B (Temporal & Situational)**:
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- Generates quarter-by-quarter breakdowns
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- Creates win probability bucketed statistics
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- Computes team share metrics and WOPR
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- Calculates season-level consistency metrics
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Both pipelines were merged to create a comprehensive feature set.
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## Considerations for Using the Data
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### Social Impact
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This dataset is intended for:
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- Sports analytics and research
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- Fantasy football decision-making
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- Educational purposes in machine learning and sports statistics
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**Not intended for:**
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- Real-money gambling (use responsibly)
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- Player evaluation for contract negotiations
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- Any decision-making that could impact player careers
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### Discussion of Biases
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- **Opportunity bias**: Statistics heavily dependent on team offensive scheme and QB quality
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- **Injury data**: Dataset does not account for injuries that may affect performance
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- **Sample size**: Players with limited playing time have less reliable statistics
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- **Game script**: Performance metrics influenced by whether team is winning/losing
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- **Strength of schedule**: Not all defensive matchups are equal, though some adjustment is included
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### Limitations
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- **Historical data only**: Does not predict future performance definitively
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- **Missing context**: Does not include play design, route running, or other qualitative factors
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- **Weather parsing**: Temperature/wind/humidity may be missing or inaccurate for some games
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- **Roster changes**: Does not account for mid-season team changes or trades
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- **Playoff games**: May or may not include playoff data depending on the year
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## Additional Information
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### Acknowledgments
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- **Data Source**: [nflverse/nflverse-data](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp)
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- **AI Assistance**: Code development assisted by Claude (Anthropic)
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- **Course**: CMU 24-679: Designing and Deploying AI/ML Systems
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