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economics
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housing-economics
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ebcde1f | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 | from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import replace
from pathlib import Path
import pytest
from microstructure.reporting.l2 import (
L2ReportData,
L2ReportError,
canonical_report_data_sha256,
render_l2_executive_memo,
render_l2_model_comparison,
render_l2_technical_report,
write_l2_report_set,
)
def _data() -> L2ReportData:
manifest = {
"status": "COMPLETE",
"evidence_tier": "FULL_DATA",
"effective_evidence_tier": "FULL_DATA",
"live_trading": False,
"research": {
"question": "Do causal L2 states improve future-mid direction log loss?",
"period_start_utc": "2026-08-10T14:00:00Z",
"period_end_utc": "2026-08-13T15:00:00Z",
},
}
provenance = {
"git": {"commit": "a" * 40, "source_tree_sha256": "b" * 64, "dirty": False},
"inputs": {
"capture_config_sha256": "c" * 64,
"capture_protocol_sha256": "d" * 64,
"analysis_config_sha256": "e" * 64,
"development_lock_sha256": "f" * 64,
},
}
session_gates = tuple(
{
"study_date": f"2026-08-{day:02d}",
"study_role": role,
"status": "COMPLETE",
"BTCUSDT_gate": "passed",
"ETHUSDT_gate": "passed",
"overlap_seconds": 3_590.0,
}
for day, role in (
(8, "train"),
(9, "validation"),
(10, "primary_test"),
(11, "replication_test"),
)
)
predictive = (
{
"symbol": "BTCUSDT",
"endpoint_name": "event_20",
"study_date": "2026-08-12",
"selected_model": "logistic_l2_c_1",
"n_obs": 400,
"selected_log_loss": 0.65,
"prior_log_loss": 0.69,
"point_delta": -0.04,
"selected_brier_score": 0.23,
"selected_expected_calibration_error": 0.02,
},
)
paired = (
{
"symbol": "BTCUSDT",
"endpoint_name": "event_20",
"study_date": "2026-08-12",
"n_obs": 400,
"n_blocks": 10,
"point_delta": -0.04,
"ci_low": -0.08,
"ci_high": 0.01,
"status": "ok",
"regime": "ALL",
},
)
equal = (
{
**{key: value for key, value in paired[0].items() if key != "study_date"},
"directionally_replicated": True,
},
)
execution = (
{
"symbol": "BTCUSDT",
"endpoint_name": "event_20",
"study_date": "2026-08-12",
"decision_latency_events": 0,
"order_latency_events": 1,
"strategy_orders": 20,
"fill_ratio": 0.8,
"turnover_notional": 1_000.0,
"marked_net_pnl": -2.0,
"unliquidated_quantity": 0.0,
},
)
return L2ReportData(
manifest=manifest,
provenance=provenance,
session_gates=session_gates,
hypothesis={
"conclusion": "The endpoint improved on primary and replication sessions.",
"directionally_replicated_pairs": 1,
},
predictive_metrics=predictive,
paired_metrics=paired,
equal_session_metrics=equal,
execution_metrics=execution,
)
def test_l2_reports_are_artifact_driven_and_keep_claim_boundaries() -> None:
data = _data()
technical = render_l2_technical_report(data)
memo = render_l2_executive_memo(data)
comparison = render_l2_model_comparison(data)
for report in (technical, memo, comparison):
assert "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa" in report
assert "ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff" in report
assert "no refit" in report.lower() or "without update" in report.lower()
assert "not realized execution" in technical.lower()
assert "no capacity or profitability claim" in technical.lower()
assert "Directionally replicated symbol/endpoint pairs: **1**" in memo
assert "2026-08-12 / ALL" in technical
assert "equal-session / ALL" in comparison
assert "0.650000" in comparison
assert len(canonical_report_data_sha256(data)) == 64
def test_l2_report_set_is_deterministic_and_complete(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
paths = write_l2_report_set(tmp_path, _data())
first = [path.read_bytes() for path in paths]
repeated = write_l2_report_set(tmp_path, _data())
assert paths == repeated
assert [path.read_bytes() for path in repeated] == first
assert {path.name for path in paths} == {
"technical_report.md",
"executive_memo.md",
"model_comparison.md",
}
def test_l2_reports_reject_promoted_or_underspecified_authority() -> None:
data = _data()
with pytest.raises(L2ReportError, match="FULL_DATA"):
render_l2_technical_report(
replace(
data,
manifest={**data.manifest, "evidence_tier": "PUBLIC_SAMPLE_PARTIAL"},
)
)
with pytest.raises(L2ReportError, match="conclusion"):
render_l2_executive_memo(replace(data, hypothesis={}))
def test_l2_report_counts_only_overall_pairs_and_labels_insufficient_data() -> None:
data = _data()
duplicated_regime = {
**data.equal_session_metrics[0],
"regime": "HIGH_SPREAD__HIGH_VOLATILITY",
"directionally_replicated": True,
}
memo = render_l2_executive_memo(
replace(data, equal_session_metrics=(*data.equal_session_metrics, duplicated_regime))
)
assert "Directionally replicated symbol/endpoint pairs: **1**" in memo
insufficient_manifest = {
**data.manifest,
"status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA",
"effective_evidence_tier": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA",
}
insufficient = replace(
data,
manifest=insufficient_manifest,
hypothesis={
"conclusion": "The frozen study is INSUFFICIENT_DATA.",
"directionally_replicated_pairs": 0,
},
predictive_metrics=(),
paired_metrics=(),
equal_session_metrics=(),
execution_metrics=(),
)
technical = render_l2_technical_report(insufficient)
assert "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" in technical
assert "FULL-DATA PUBLIC L2 RESEARCH" not in technical
def test_l2_report_rejects_replicated_pair_count_mismatch() -> None:
with pytest.raises(L2ReportError, match="replicated-pair count"):
render_l2_executive_memo(
replace(
_data(),
hypothesis={
"conclusion": "Mismatch.",
"directionally_replicated_pairs": 2,
},
)
)
def test_l2_report_rejects_invalid_execution_fill_ratio() -> None:
data = _data()
invalid = ({**data.execution_metrics[0], "fill_ratio": 1.01},)
with pytest.raises(L2ReportError, match=r"\[0, 1\]"):
render_l2_technical_report(replace(data, execution_metrics=invalid))
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